Comparing exit polls from 2004 and 2008 makes the breadth of Barack Obama's victory clear. Obama received a larger share of the vote than John Kerry among voters of all genders, races, education levels, and income classes, and virtually all religions. The only groups with whom he underperformed Kerry were older (65+) voters, and gay and lesbian voters.
Conversley, there is a hidden source of strength in this table that hasn't been talked much about before: Obama markedly overperformed Kerry among parents. In a sense, it was those people who have most reason to be concerned about the future who voted for Obama: people who are young themeslves, or people who have young children at home.
11.06.2008
Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics
@ 2:03 PM
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He inspired that's why.
Among the pleasant discoveries - pending the final CA figures when early ballots included, Obama received the highest % of votes here ever for a Dem - more than FDR in 32 and 36, more than LBJ in 1964.
Also, the Coleman/Franken margin is down to 339.
Looks like NC's been called for Barack!
I hadn't realized until looking at the exit polls just how much more the youth vote was for Obama than for Kerry.
In 2004, Kerry took voters under 30 by single digits over Bush.
In 2008, Obama took them by 36 points over McCain, while taking voters over 30 by only about 1% or so.
I wonder why he would do more poorly than Kerry with gay/lesbian voters? Perhaps McCain seems less hostile than Bush on gay rights issues?
Nate,
Thanks for all the great work. The model performed beautifully. When are we going to get a post election analysis of it's performance. Clearly not until all results are in.
Also, when can we have a contest to name the model?
I suggest we follow your naming strategy for BP as it respects history. If so, let's start with an appropriate person and see if we can build the model name. I suggest: Lincoln, Dewey, or Truman.
Your suggestions?
Oh, BTW:
PRESIDENT ELECT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA
It has a beutiful sound.
WOOOHOOO!!!
The table is not coming up on mu machine, is it in yours?
RAHM EMANUEL.
Now just a few more thousand votes are needed for Obama in Missouri for an official 375 EV Obama landslide.
Yea, the gay/lesbian thing is weird. That needs more investigation.
The table does not load for me either.
My friends, though this is a great win for Barack HUSSEIN Obama, it is a stunning loss for all of my favorite election in-jokes, my friends, which is GREAT NEWS!!!...for JOHN MCCAIN!!!! I literally--not figuratively--literally do not know what we will do with the memes that we have made so popular, in such a short amount of time. Ladies and gentleman, though, and I mean this, does it really make sense to keep repeating the same old in-jokes after the election? The same old in-jokes? Like that one. Because I look at that, and I think, seriously, folks, I think, well that's not change! It's more of the same!
Karl: I can't find the link at the moment, but I recall reading an article about how the demographics of gay/lesbian voters are shifting to look more similar to the demographics of everyone else; percentage-wise, fewer and fewer are the stereotype of urban liberals in SF or NYC, but increasingly include people living in suburban and rural areas, generally unconnected to the wider gay community, who might well be conservative in general (on every other issue but gay rights, presumably). The big emphasis on taxes this time might've also had an effect, as gay people are wealthier than straight people on average. Although this is all good from the perspective of normalcy (being gay is increasingly just one of many factors that determines someone identity, for many people not even the main one), it does mean that they're becoming less of a block vote for the Democrats.
The Chief of Staff is RAHM MOTHERFUCKING EMANUEL.
BHO is even smarter than I thought.
It's official--North Carolina has been called for Obama.
It is strange about the G/L communities under performing for Obama...
I don't really see the McCain/Palin ticket as overly 'gay friendly' with Palin's "I TOLERATE" comments.
Pres. Barack Obama. Sounds SOOOO good to say. BTW: I think he'd look great on some greenbacks
538 lives -- hooray!
Nate,
You wrote earlier in the week that there has been screwy stuff going on in Georgia. There seem to be reports (at least on Kos) that ballots have been uncounted. As a former Georgia resident, I was shocked to see the percentages. Any clue about what in God's name is going on there? Is it voter or ballot suppression?
Nate you need to be gloating more about the accuracy of your projects, and congrats on your #23 finish on the Hitwise internet traffic rankings for election night (http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/11/05/hitwise-ranks-election-traffic-to-news-sites/). We can officially say fivethirtyeight is the michael jordan of statistical election punditry!!!! PS South Park last night was priceless....
Rahm Emanuel is HOT
No, it's not weird that Obama performed less well than Kerry among LGBTs - he made the mistake of accepting support from a homophobic black preacher early on in the campaign, and in general LGBTs feel (quite accurately as the Prop 8 support figures showed) that the straight black community is hostile to them.
Also, that there were so many anti-gay ballot measures in 2004, compared to only 3 this year, could have simply meant that Kerry got a higher and thus more distinct gay turnout than Obama. Pro-gay rights vs anti-gay rights was simply not a distinct issue between the two camps this year - Obama's voiced opposition to outright gay marriage (he's a civil unions fan) did not help him in that regard.
One demographic that was ignored is the Mavericky vote. It went against expectations. Maverick County, TX went 78.2% for Obama and 20.2% for McCain.
I'm sure Rahm Emanuel is a really nice guy and great choice for Chief of Staff, but I have to say the stock picture of him with Obama (e.g., the one on the NYT home page right now) creeps me out a little. He looks like he's whispering something super sinister and Obama is listening intently. :P
Somewhat surprised that Obama's underperformed with GLBT voters. I see some resentment around me in CA that boosted turnout among blacks doomed gay marriage (AAs went 70-30 for Prop 8) but I wouldn't think that'd translate into fewer votes for Obama.
There may be some recent evidence that gay people don't have the bigger incomes either, in CA anyway. http://economics.ca/cgi/jab?journal=cje&article=v41n4p1239
I strongly suspect the "underperformance" among gay and lesbians is just a polling error due to small sample size. Nate, can you vouch for the statistical significance of that delta?
Minnesota's margin is now down to 336! If this keeps up and it is only a matter of time before Oregon's senate race is over and won for Merkley, which would put it at 58 (includes Lieberman) - 40. Then you have Stevens in Alaska, holding on for dear life, yet to be decided and Georgia, where I see the DNC pouring surplus money into the state to pull the special election away from Chambliss. Any thoughts?
You think so, Jackie? I thought Rahm was about to kiss him. :)
thene - haha, I suppose I could see that too. But something about the shadows around his eyes reads 'creepy' to me.
Wait, so you're saying that the charismatic and inspirational candidate performed better than the dull, crappy candidate? Who'd have thunk it?
The difference between the electoral maps of 1992, 1996 and 2008 and the maps of 200 and 2004 is pretty simple. If you have a strong democratic candidate you can win or be close in plenty of states, if you have a weak candidate you have to collapse on the northeast, west, and upper midwest. These exit polls show that pretty clearly, Obama was a strong candidate, Kerry was not.
As I said on the previous thread, Ralph Nader can be thanked for the situation in Missouri. He polled 17,769 votes - McCain's current margin over Obama is 5,868 votes.
Apparently, there were some problems with voting machines in Kansas City. Very convenient for the GOP.
oregon race is already over. it was obvious for a while, but it has been called. merkeley is up around 50,000 votes now.
what is affecting the changes for Franken? I thought it was done and they need to recount now
@avg joe said...
I don't really see the McCain/Palin ticket as overly 'gay friendly' with Palin's "I TOLERATE" comments.
Yea, that's what makes it so weird. Maybe, in part, it had something to do with his Obama's position on gay marriage.
... BTW: I think he'd look great on some greenbacks...
I think that will happen some day and look great. As one of the chronic unemployed and underemployed as a result of Bush economics, I'd love to see some more of them in my wallet.
BTW, where's Real Joe's surprise?
:)
Oregon goes Merkley!!! 57-40
Huh, so the youth vote actually made a huge difference this time. Wow, that's inspiring.
Rumor going around that Lieberman will be stripped of his committee chairs. Please let it be true!
While the numbers we have now are not official, does anyone have any news on how Alaska and Georgia are doing in their hunt for the missing votes?
Both sets of numbers should be thought of as 60-75% reporting numbers based on expected turnout
and there may be quite a bit of skew in the yet-to-be-counted votes.
538 probably would have ranked even higher on election night hits if the server had been able to handle the traffic.
Dear America,
It's really so wonderful to have you back.
We missed you terribly.
Love and Respect,
The World.
@Luke1robb said...
...and Georgia, where I see the DNC pouring surplus money into the state to pull the special election away from Chambliss. Any thoughts?
And they will be able to tap into the powerful BO GOTV machine and supporter base during fpr the special election.
rahm emanuel doesnt look creepy.
i like that he is supposed to be tough.
i am tired of wimpy Democrats.
and i really want joe "the traitor" lieberman gone.
i also want franken to somehow pull it out.
nice that this site did well on election night. it deserved it. i know i camped here
OK, as a gay man let me defend my community for a second. All the data says is that Obama did slightly less well among LGBT voters than Kerry did (70 vs 77), but it still shows that Obama took some 70+% of the LGBT vote -- substantially higher, of course, than the population at large.
And as someone else said, given the small LGBT population sample (only 4% of the exit polling), I'd seriously question whether 7% is statistically significant.
@GlennNYC said...
Good points. Let's see some more analysis...more numbers...
538, I can't quit you.
BTW, when do today's polls come out?
:)
I'm sure Rahm Emanuel is a really nice guy and great choice for Chief of Staff, but I have to say the stock picture of him with Obama (e.g., the one on the NYT home page right now) creeps me out a little. He looks like he's whispering something super sinister and Obama is listening intently. :P
Jackie -- they look like they're about to cuddle, to me.
Has anyone noticed that Al Franken is creeping up to Norm Coleman in the MN senate race? The latest CNN numbers have the gap at just over 300 votes, down from 550 this morning.
Let us hope some more.
Reid & Lieberman just finished meeting; as yet, no action.
has real joe been back? did he reveal the big surprise?
How can the Mn. number be changing. I thought all possible votes were accounted for.
Do they have machines in Mn? If so the outcome probably wouldn`t change any.
If they are still counting absentee maybe Franken has a chance. anyway 58% of the people didn`t want Coleman as their senator, why not have a revote minus the third party? yeah just kidding but maybe they should consider a law saying if no one gets 50% the two highest vote getters have a runoff.
Also when would Obama resign his seat, after they count the electoral college?
Even the veteran vote was higher--how did the veterans vote in relation to McCain, I wonder?
Thanks for the great work--Rachel M. gave you a great big shoutout on her show last night.
Is the parents-to-young children effect not reducible to two other obvious factors - the 18-29 effect and the minorities effect?
That is, do we think Obama did *relatively* better than Kerry among White 40-ish parents to young kids? I am not sure the evidence suggests this.
Other Rob said...
One demographic that was ignored is the Mavericky vote. It went against expectations. Maverick County, TX went 78.2% for Obama and 20.2% for McCain.
November 6, 2008 1:24 PM
###########
McCain surge !!!!!!!!!!!!
:)
@fl dem...
Maybe Real Joe was Biden
:)
...or Leiberman?
:(
Is anyone else getting a little freaked out by all the parallels with the West Wing? Apparently Emanuel was the model for the Josh Lyman character. I do hope he's going to bring back CJ, Toby and Sam Seaborn too.
(And from a completely shallow, feminine perspective an Obama/Emanuel White House is almost as hot as a Santos/Lyman one would have been).
Anecdotally, it seems to me that there's a pretty widespread level of discontentment among gays/lesbians over Obama not campaigning for gay marriage. In fact, his public position is pretty much the same as Dick Cheney's: support for civil unions, but definition of marriage is a state issue. They feel that he was willing to sacrifice their support to pickup swing votes in OH, PA, VA, etc. Which to a large part is true.
I got into an argument with a friend from college who expects Obama to champion the issue. I pointed out that both Carter and Clinton got side-tracked early in their presidencies by relatively peripheral, divisive social issues: Carter's support for extension on the ERA deadline and Clinton's gays-in-the-military. In the end, they wasted a lot of time and political capital without securing a satisfactory results (no state passed the ERA after the deadline and "don't-ask-don't-tell" is unacceptable) and it gave the GOP an issue to galvanize support behind in future elections.
I don't think that Obama was given any support of mandate on social issues. He ran as a social moderate with a progressive economic agenda (sugarcoated with a middle-class tax cut). If he tries to use the bully pulpit to promote a progressive social agenda, it's going to undermine his efforts on economic stabilization, energy policy, and healthcare--and likely cost the Democrats seats in 2010 and 2012, as well as possibly the presidency in 2012.
Fortunately, Obama and his people are smart enough to know this and hopefully more disciplined than the early Clinton administration. Hopefully gays and lesbians will accept the need to focus on other issues for the greater good. Or at least realize that if they force a national referendum on gay marriage, we're far more likely to wind up with a constitutional amendment AGAINST it. The median voter clearly isn't for it, if a majority of Californians voted for "outlawing" it.
Best chance for gay marriage is holding the presidency for 2-3 terms and replacing the Supreme Court with progressive-minded judges. It's going to take a liberal court to extend equal protection to gays and lesbians, but that can't happen if a constitutional amendment against it is passed in the interim.
fl dem said...
has real joe been back? did he reveal the big surprise?
November 6, 2008 1:42 PM
#############
Real Joe's surprise was Indiana for Obama.
then he got some arguments with guest in here about prep.8..and I think he is out for a while.
anyway:
good job in Volusia county!
The Log Cabin Republicans endorsed Kerry in 2004, McCain in 08.
My first blog & post -
A BIG thanks to the 538.com team - I enjoyed my hours here very much!
The following is a quote from my bro-in-law who got a teaching job in Norway (prof of Bio) after getting his PhD @ Michigan U. about 30 years ago.
The world was watching on Nov 4th and liked the results as much as we did!
"Here (Norway), I have been getting congratulations right and left,
> particularly from the Romanians helping our chorus with the
> opera. They are really excited. At last night's curtain
> call, our American conductor Andrew Litton came out waving
> an American flag (which brought a cheer from the audience).
> I had been wishing I had had a flag lapel: it is the first
> time I can remember in a long time that I am unashamably
> proud to be an American."
frank:
I'm still keeping an eye out for those missing votes.
2008 total votes - 122,487,767 (most recent data)
2004 total votes - 122,293,548
Still waiting for the extra 5, 10, or 15 million votes everyone was expecting.
Per the discussion at Brad DeLong's blog, the whole country shifted towrds blue with the exception of the white South (aka the "Cracker Crescent"). The New York Times map linked in the discussion is an eye-opener.
[wv: nateolve - first we evolve, then we nateolve]
I'm a white 40ish parent with a young kid and everyone I know was very inspired by the whole Obama family (mind you we live in Seattle, so it's hardly surprising). But they do look like they'd have more of an idea about the issues surrounding 'work/life' balance and education than the McCains would.
Also, and this is again purely anecdotally, I spoke to many, many mothers who were pretty disgusted by Sarah Palin's version of parenting.
The Real Joe surprise was not that much of a surprise...it had to do with Indiana going BLUE this year.
what is affecting the changes for Franken? I thought it was done and they need to recount now
They aren't really to recount territory yet AFAIK, they are still dealing with provisional and absentee ballots. The provisional ballets especially take more time to process because the eligibility of each voter has to be verified before that ballot is added to the tally.
Suppository the vast bulk of the provisional ballots are from Dem leaning precincts, those the slow but steady closing of the gap by Frankin. So it's really of question of whether he'll run out of ballots before he pulls ahead.
I'm guessing that whole thing won't be finalized before the end of this month.
thanks, matador. orange went for obama by 20 points. and, he lost in seminole by only THREE!!! bush beat kerry here by 17. i am more than thrilled. we had an amazing ground game. so glad to have been a part of it.
Atheists and agnostics for Obama!
Of all the religious categories only Jews (78%) voted for Obama in greater proportion than atheists and agnostics. (I shudder to think of how Fox news will try to spin that.)
Is anyone else getting a little freaked out by all the parallels with the West Wing? Apparently Emanuel was the model for the Josh Lyman character.
Yeah, but I wonder if a more Leo McGarry-type (elder party statesman respected by both parties) might be a more effective, like a Tom Daschle. Although I'm impressed by Emanuel, he may be perceived as too-partisan. While I realize the importance of good cop/bad cop, it might have worked better if he were Deputy Chief of Staff to a Daschle (as was the case for most of the fictional Bartlett administration).
Or Emanuel might have made for a good Speaker of the House. I'd feel a lot better about the start to Obama's first term if the Democratic leaders in Congress were more effective. Pelosi and Reid did not perform well the past two years and it worries me that Reid in particular will be ineffectual at luring the swing GOP votes they'll need to get a cloture motion passed.
Gays and lesbians probably voted for independent parties instead of giving more votes to republicans. I don't think gays would be that stupid as to vote republican.
I wanted to share a graphic I made to honor Obama's changing of the map with my fellow 538ers.
Blue Map Desktop
I also made a t-shirt if you really like the design.
fl dem said...
thanks, matador. orange went for obama by 20 points. and, he lost in seminole by only THREE!!! bush beat kerry here by 17. i am more than thrilled. we had an amazing ground game. so glad to have been a part of it.
November 6, 2008 1:54 PM
#############
You are welcome!
Every time i came here I glanced for your post from FL.
:)
and yes,nice to meet you Hermano!
;)
:The Real Joe surprise was not that much of a surprise...it had to do with Indiana going BLUE this year"
LongBeachDave
Speak for yourself. While I certainly hoped that Obama would take Indiana, I was anything but confident it would happen. I'd call it a very pleasant, low to mid probability , surprise.
Agreed with most of what's been said about the GLBT discrepancy.
Sample size is likely a factor, but I do think there was a significant downturn here (and a corresponding support for McKinney) among activist GLBTers, especially lesbians, due to some of the stuff that happened during the primary.
I think most people realized that Obama could not openly support same-sex marriage (no legitimate candidate could do so this year) but he also didn't have to do the courting of evangelicals that he did along the way that alienated many out here in GLBT land. The Donnie McClurkin scandal turned off a LOT of people right off the bat. And then much of the thinly veiled sexism coming from the Obama camp, if not the man himself, toward Hillary kind of sealed the deal for many feminist lesbians.
Kerry wasn't exactly any more openly supportive of us, but he also didn't openly court the votes of people who have historically treated us as second-class citizens, at best.
Is there a bradley effect in the 65+ demo?
My ballot didn't help Brevard go blue (county in FL). Damn rednecks!
I know several G/L voters who went third party (Green/Rainbow primarily) instead of voting for Obama. Obviously it's a small sample size, but I bet more of them went that way than towards McCain (although I did read an article a couple months ago about how Rick Davis actively pursued the Log Cabin Republicans.)
What's with all the Europeans acting like they "finally" respect America now that we have elected a black president? Hey France, where's your black president? How about you, Germany? Ahem, England? Anyone?
chirp, chirp, chirp...
That's what I thought, bitches. Get off your high horse. You'll have plenty of opportunities to keep criticizing us while ignoring your own shortcomings, don't worry.
Sorry folks--I gotta disagree strongly. Gay folk have no excuses for dropping 7% below Kerry for Obama. He was a terrific candidate, and has made a point of including gays and lesbians in his verbal portraits of America--including on election night during his speech. Shame on queer America for supporting McCain and Palin. Palin's candidacy was a farce at best and deeply dangerous at worse.
And, yes, shame on 70% of the AA community voting to strip gay California citizens of their right to marry. The irony is deep and the action painful. As a gay American with famlily in California, I was crushed by passing Prop 8.
But Prop 8 and homophobia in the AA community is not the point. The point is that Barack Obama is a transformational and extraordinarily competent figure. He deserved a 95% turnout from the queer community and I think that those of us in that community need to have a serious conversation about why we failed. In the wake of Bush and Cheney, any increase in support for the Republican ticket is a failure.
I wonder why he would do more poorly than Kerry with gay/lesbian voters? Perhaps McCain seems less hostile than Bush on gay rights issues?
I recall during the primaries a fair number in the G&L community (at least in their blogs) who were rather PUMA-like--really PO'd about Clinton losing to Obama. If the community generally supported Clinton, maybe they just weren't as enthused.
That and, as you mentioned, McCain is far less hostile to G&L than Bush was.
joseph wright:
I think you'll find the minority population in European countries is a lot smaller than in the USA:
Italy - 95% white
UK - 92% white
Germany - 91% white
France - 90% white
USA - 70% white (or 80% if including Hispanics)
Anyone know what the youth turnout was compared to 2004?
An astounding exception to this trend has been almost completely overlooked. The NY Times map of vote shifting from 2004 to 2008 shows this stark exception graphically. [This map was featured also today at the Huffington Post.] The Southern Highlands vote, stretching from West Virginia to Oklahoma, shifted hugely to McCain in comparison to Bush. Many counties which actually gave Kerry [himself never a good fit culturally in this region] comfortable majorities, reversed their allegiance and gave landslide margins to McCain. Shifts of -20 to -40 points from Kerry to Obama are not uncommon in this area. It may be that this dramatic 2004/2008 shift by southern white voters to the repubicans occurred in parts of the Deep South as well, but doesn't show up on this map because it was balanced out by large African-American turnouts there. It seems possible that white voters in this region have had a uniquely "xenophobic" response to Obama.
"mirrormirror said...
Is anyone else getting a little freaked out by all the parallels with the West Wing?"
Yes! I was going through the similarities long before Obama chose Emanuel. Vinick was based on McCain, Santos was a young, relatively unknown congressman, etc, etc. Alas Obama's administration didn't follow Clinton's/Bartlet's.
What's your point andy?
Joseph Wright said...
What's with all the Europeans acting like they "finally" respect America now that we have elected a black president? Hey France, where's your black president? How about you, Germany? Ahem, England? Anyone?
November 6, 2008 2:06 PM
My guess is the world is just pleased that Bush and like minded Republicans are no longer in charge.
My guess would be his color is more of a symbol of change to many rather than just being happy we elected a black man.
Just look at these figures:
ALASKA 2008, (with 2004 in brackets):
McCain - 136,348, (Bush - 190,889)
Obama - 80,340, (Kerry - 111,025)
Surely those figures can't be right? A drop in turnout of 85,000 voters? With Palin inspiring Republicans and Obama enthusing Democrats?
@Infogrifter@aol.com said...
An astounding exception to this trend has been almost completely...
It's an interesting trend, although I do not think it is overlooked. Being on the NYT map and Huffington hardly seems overlooked.
Having travelled those areas extensively, I think they will be some of the last to change their racial attitudes. Sad, but probably true.
An interesting tidbit from Nate's breakdown. 52% of folks making over $200K voted for Obama. This is greater than any other groups making over $50K.
So much for the Redistributor in Chief and Socialist cards. If only RWC were here to see it.
Think about the fact that his % of folks making over $200,000+ was 52%. Kerry's was only 35%. That says a lot to me.
Fascinating stuff Nate. Keep 'em coming.
Belated thanks for your sterling efforts up to and including election day.
Also, the comments always made interesting reading, even the right-wing trolls (well, some of them anyway). Gave a good feel for how America thinks.
wv: caluffe specially warm item of clothing needed by Palin now that she'll be spending the rest of her life in Alasks (fingers crossed).
Anyone see Olbermann's Worst Person last night?
He chose BillO The Clown, Rush Limberger, and someone else I can't even remember.
Each time he was about to talk about what each person said, he stuttered and announced: "It doesn't matter, now, does it! Who cares what BillO says!"
Fitting.
What's up with Omaha?
@Bush Whacked...
Great fact, thanks for sharing. And it is somewhat insipiring, also.
joseph wright:
A country which is 90-95% white can't be blamed for not electing a black president. There aren't going to be the same opportunities with only a 5-10% minority population. But America - with a 30% minority population - is more likely to be in a position to elect a non-white president, and there's no reason why Europeans shouldn't point that out.
Eric:
What it means is that many of us don't mind paying more taxes to a government that is run by someone who we believe can make government part of the solution.
the equal rights amendment can hardly be called a "peripheral issue", as walt526 called it - it concerned at least half the population, i.e., women.
all the queer people i know (including me) were strongly in favor of obama. most people realize that it'd be political suicide to campaign with gay marriage in your platform. so yes, walt, we do understand that other things are important, too.
it must be amatter of sample size -- even if they had 1000 gay/lesbian people in their sample, the error would still be around plus or minus three points, and the results reported here could be meaningless variation around a "true" value of about 74%.
and even 'older' people without children are concerned about the future. i really found that remark rather offensive.
capehorn:
The youth turnout, as a proportion of the total vote, appears largely unchanged. It was 17% in the 2004 poll, 18% in the 2008 poll.
What's with all the Europeans acting like they "finally" respect America now that we have elected a black president? Hey France, where's your black president? How about you, Germany? Ahem, England? Anyone?
chirp, chirp, chirp...
That's what I thought, bitches. Get off your high horse. You'll have plenty of opportunities to keep criticizing us while ignoring your own shortcomings, don't worry.
You'll be waiting a long time for black heads of state etc in most of those countries as blacks are actually a tiny fraction of the population in most of Europe as there is no slave heritage.
Only in Britain do we have minority population comparable to that of the US, though that is quite fragmented between Caribbean blacks, Indians and Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh, as the big groups.
But come back and talk to me when the US elects a female president (in Europe it's now nearly 30 years since Thatcher was elected, Germany has a female Chancellor in Angela Merkel and Segolene Royal in France fought a close race against Sarkozy.)
Also we'll talk again when the US elects a Jewish president (the UK had a Jewish prime minister back in 1868), or, heaven forfend, an atheist prime minister, of which I'm sure there have been very many in Europe, but I don't know because a politician's religion is not considered very relevant to the political debate and is hardly ever mentioned.
Nate, does your rise in power mean an new generation of "nerd chic"? No, you are not a nerd. You've been a little stiff on TV, and you even got Keith on a baseball metaphor. They respect you, that is for sure. The energy you guys have put into this endeavor and it's consequences has been enormous, truly amazing.
Goddamn, what a new era this is. It is like this psychic fog has been lifted from America's third eye. It's like all of the sudden, the corpus callosum started to function properly and both halves of the brain are once again communicating.
Wright said...
What's with all the Europeans acting like they "finally" respect America now that we have elected a black president? Hey France, where's your black president? How about you, Germany? Ahem, England? Anyone?
##############
Hi pal, I am from Europe, Italy.
I have always respected Americans as a people, I like you so much and I have Americans colleagues .
So my respect for Americans is unchanged from a week ago.
The colour of Obama' skin, doesn’t mean a thing in my opinion, considering this would be silly.
What matters is that Obama is at least 3 leagues above of McCain and 5 above Bush.
This is way the whole world, not only Europe, is celebrating.
Anyway, I wish a could have a black thoughtful man in charge in Italy, instead of that fascist-moron we elected in May 2008,but:c’est la vie.
:)
What kn says. Every gay person I know (including me) is a strong Obama supporter. Maybe there is a Barney Frank effect in the polling: folks not wanting to disclose their sexuality to a stranger.
Matador, it wasn't even an argument with Real Joe. He never responded to my calling him out, which I thought was a little rude, but we're better off not having him around even though I too liked him a lot until he had to rejoice over Prop 8 passing.
omaha's 1 ev is going to go to obama, imo.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10480262
Whoops. I meant an atheist 'president' in my preceding comment.
Joseph W,
several things.
1st america on monday was the 2nd greatest country on the planet, today its still the 2nd greatest country on the planet.
but not electing Bush is definately seen as a plus.
Also electing a minority president shows you are a lot further ahead than many countries re race relations - which is great.
since most countries in europe are to the left of the us a democrat president is always going to be a more popular move.
the race stats are different in euroe, and the system is much more open in the USA, it takes longer to wokr through the party system in the uk and france.
finally we havent had a minority politician like BO, baroness Amos could have gone very high if she had been elected rather than in the lords, but theres a limit to how far you can realisitcally go in the lords now.
finally yep a jewish and atheist [no jefferson doesnt count] and female pms.
"mirrormirror said...
Only in Britain do we have minority population comparable to that of the US, though that is quite fragmented between Caribbean blacks, Indians and Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh, as the big groups."
Not really true. In Britain our ethnic minority population is only about 8%. France's is higher at about 12%. USA is 30% (if you include Hispanics).
Jeff NYC Dem said...
Matador, it wasn't even an argument with Real Joe. He never responded to my calling him out, which I thought was a little rude, but we're better off not having him around even though I too liked him a lot until he had to rejoice over Prop 8 passing.
November 6, 2008 2:31 PM
############
On prep.8 I don't agree whit Real Joe at all...but I wouldn't have called Him in all those offensives names.
all in all, Real Joe was a pillar in this site,and I also think he has the right to think different .
Ok.
I talked too much for a foreigner.
see you.
:)
correction:
whit=with
...stupid fingers!
:)
Well I am gay and I voted Obama. I know he supports us. But you want to know what would have made me have a passion for Obama? If he had defied everybody and said what I truly think he believes…That he supports same-sex marriage. Then I would have walked every block in my city knocking on doors for the guy. I mean, I still voted for him…I still sent him some money. But I would have bent over backwards (no pun intended) for him if came out and said, “Right now. Not all Americans have the same rights…And that is wrong”.
For a short while, some lucky people in California had the same rights as far as marriage is concerned. Until some five million people in that state went to the poll and said, “You know what…I don’t think all people should have the exact same rights”. They voted to strip rights away from people who were already enjoying them.
Think about that. On the same day that we elected the first African American President, millions of people voted to take rights away from their fellow citizens. Am I the only one who thinks that is unprecedented hypocrisy? OK, I’m ranting.
But the fact that the country did elect Obama, that gives me hope. And also the fact that almost as many people in California said with their votes, “I won’t let you take that right away. Not today. Not in my country”
Because Obama won a larger percentage of the electorate than Kerry, it's not wholly surprising that he did better in most demographics.
More interesting would be to compare the proportion of Obama vs. Kerry voters represented by each demographic class--in other words, to normalize by number of votes cast, so that we can see to what extent *more* Obama supporters were, say, black, youth, etc, than Kerry supporters.
Unfortunately, for overlapping classes these data are insufficient to compute that (e.g., we can't compare young vs. black voters, because we don't know how many of the black voters were young).
Fl Dem, you are right. I live in Omaha and I fully expect our one electoral vote to go for Obama. Right now the difference is only like 500 votes. (out of 250,000 votes cast!)
But there are a ton of early votes and provisional ballots to be counted here in Douglas County. And this is the county that Obama won. McCain won Sarpy County (The other, more conservative county in District 2) but in Sarpy County there is only a handful of early votes to count.
A little bit of Nebraska is going to go blue for the first time since 1964!!
"mirrormirror said...
Only in Britain do we have minority population comparable to that of the US, though that is quite fragmented between Caribbean blacks, Indians and Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh, as the big groups."
Not really true. In Britain our ethnic minority population is only about 8%. France's is higher at about 12%. USA is 30% (if you include Hispanics).
Is that true? If so, I'm amazed. Before coming to the US I lived in Notting Hill, so sometimes I forget how white the rest of the country is.
I agree with all the Europeans here though, that the pleasure in Obama's victory is more because it will be great to have a US president whose views are reflective of the 21st century and not the 15th, than because he is black.
And speaking of basic civil liberties - most European countries now recognise some form of gay marriage or legal civil partnership.
It's actually really been annoying me with all these people on the telly here (I live in the US) saying 'only in America' would such a thing be possible.
Nate,
Do you think you could post the number voters in each category? Or release the dataset as a .csv file?
Thanks,
ANG
Poblano-
The drop in GLBT support seems to make sense; in 2004 Republicans pushed hard to ban gay marriage, which probably GOT-LBGT-V for Kerry. Obama's 70% support from gays is the same 70% that Gore got in 2000.
I also suspect that gays prefer McCain to Bush as well, and the Log Cabineers might be a little less worried about voting for 2008 McCain than 2004 GWB.
-Pandrews
Thank you Europeans for your fine answers and pointing out that you have elected women, for example. But still I must ask, why are the minority populations in Europe so low? It seems like an odd excuse to use in your argument, because it points out a somewhat exclusive attitude towards minorities, doesn't it?
I went ahead and did some quick math.
On first glance, it really does seem like the drop in gay support was statistically significant.
http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/2008/11/exit-poll-madness.html
In some ways it's unfair to say Obama outperformed Kerry. Yes, Obama ran a better race, but Bush had an approval rating twice as high then as now. It has taken four brutal years for America to wise up.
Minority populations in Europe are so low because there is no history of mass black slavery WITHIN the European continent. (Yes, we were complicit in the slave trade, but the slaves themselves were ending up in the plantations of the US and the Caribbean).
The minorities who do live in Europe mainly come from former European colonies - which is why most UK blacks have a Caribbean heritage and we also have a very significant Indian and (Pakistani/Banglandeshi)Muslim community. France, for example, has a large Algerian population, which mostly came to France following the French Algerian war. Countries such as Germany and Italy who did not have extensive colonial empires beyond Europe's borders have very small minority populations.
mirrormirror said...
....Countries such as Germany and Italy who did not have extensive colonial empires beyond Europe's borders have very small minority populations.
November 6, 2008 3:13 PM
###########
let me co-sign your post.
Here in Italy only the 4% of the population come from abroad.
We have few former-foreign people with Italian citizenship elected as representative in our parliament but you can count them on the finger of one end.
Probably when we'll get to 30% of minorities as US have it is going to change.
still a long shot.
##########
Joseph Wright said...
Thank you Europeans for your fine answers
November 6, 2008 3:03 PM
thank you for that "fine" "bitches" address..
correction
end = hand
..stupid fingers again !
:)
Another hidden data point is that much of his gain appears to be from changes in party affiliation. With this exit poll, Obama was +5 compared to Kerry, overall. However, among Party IDs he was even among Democrats and only +3 among Republicans and Independents.
That can only be accounted for by a ID shift to the Left. How much of that was due to Obama and how much to Bush and economy issues is an open question.
Anybody catch John King on CNN, late election night, using the national map set to display county results to show that across the heart of the south (excluding parts of Texas and Florida) Obama underperformed not only Clinton ('92 and '96) and Gore, but even John Kerry? On election night, he came pretty close to saying "that shows that racism still exists in our country" . . . but he chickened out. He did the same analysis last night but only showed Clinton vs. Obama.
Hard to imagine reasons other than racism for why Obama would underperform Kerry, given how favorable the matchup was for Democrats in 2008 vs. 2004.
Rhambo "take no prisoners" Emmanuel is a great choice. If Joe Scarborough is whining about it on his show (which he was) I think Barack made a great decision.
PS: Esoteric..loved your map and I downloaded it for my wallpaper. Of course, you realize, this a "fake" America!
Are we OVER-estimating Obama's reach? He only picked up a scant 300,000 white votes over Kerry. His biggest gain came from blacks and Latinos, who gave him 5.5 million more votes combined than Kerry. So, even though he improved in nearly every demographic, might it be possible that he only really improved with the blacks/Latinos in those demographics?
the equal rights amendment can hardly be called a "peripheral issue", as walt526 called it - it concerned at least half the population, i.e., women.
What makes a peripheral issue is not the scope of those affected, but the relative importance median voters place on the issue. By 1977 passage of the ERA was no longer a top issue among a majority of voters in either party (if it ever was). Energy policy, unemployment, inflation, foreign policy, abortion, etc. were all seen a more important issues.
In large part the expanded interpretation of the 14th Amendment during the Warren and Burger Courts rendered the ERA functionally redundant and largely symbolic. While a majority of Democrats and a majority of women (of both parties) may favor its passage, there are more pressing issues that command votes: energy policy, healthcare, economic stabilization, education, national security, etc.
And for voters for whom the ERA is important, there are more effective ways via administrative law and other legislative action (such as providing more resources to investigate pay-discrimination allegations) that would offer a more meaningful impact than the ERA. In short, the cost of passing the ERA is greater than any conceivable marginal benefit, which is why Democratic congresses haven't actively pursued it in over 30 years.
If the ERA was perceived as necessary or providing political dividends, then Clinton would sought to pass it in the 1990s. Likewise, Obama shouldn't touch it unless there's a compelling reason to do so (eg, a Supreme Court that narrows the scope of the 14th Amendment to exclude discrimination based on gender).
Other Religion: Obama 73, Kerry 74 (net -1)
Given the other listed choices, this makes me think Obama might have lost the Muslim vote - kind of ironic, hehnnh?
Are we OVER-estimating Obama's reach? He only picked up a scant 300,000 white votes over Kerry. His biggest gain came from blacks and Latinos, who gave him 5.5 million more votes combined than Kerry. So, even though he improved in nearly every demographic, might it be possible that he only really improved with the blacks/Latinos in those demographics?
Indeed. Only 43% of white voted for Obama, so his greatest opportunity to broaden his support is with white voters. That's partly why he's run as the "whitest" Democratic candidate in several generations. He went out of his way to avoid hot-button issues based on race like affirmative-action, crime, and immigration in an effort to make himself appear more innocuous to white swing voters. He was fortunate that black voters came around to support him so overwhelmingly after Iowa, as he spent most of 2008 crafting his message to appeal to non-whites (especially after Jeremiah Wright).
In particular, Obama's fortunate that McCain's pro-immigration stance allowed both candidates to largely ignore the issue all-together. It's difficult to see him securing such a high percentage of hispanic votes without sacrificing some of his white support in the midwest had his opponent been a more conventional Republican.
Before we read too much into this, in keeping with this website, do you have any error estimates? Case in point, how many LBGTs were sampled in the exit poll?
To get an error <5%, at 5% LBGT of the total population, the exit poll sample would need to be over 8000.
Esoteric - loved your graphic - but now you need to redo it with a little dot of blue in the middle of Nebraska (and maybe, dare one hope, with Missouri added?)
Omaha will now be known as Obamaha!
@ ogmb -- is that map that you linked at the shift in voting patterns throughout the country, or ???? Without a key of some type, it makes no sense to me as Utah for instance is wholly blue, yet obviously didn't vote for Obama. Anyone have the source that comes from?
"to show that across the heart of the south (excluding parts of Texas and Florida) Obama underperformed not only Clinton ('92 and '96) and Gore, but even John Kerry?"
@ Thomas -- not to defend the potentially racist, but I think that you can look at that in a variety of ways. One thing that I would argue is that those areas of the country are generally looked upon as some of the lowest educated areas of the country. The tactics of calling Obama a terrorist-paller, socialist person would ring more true with that portion of the country than anywhere else, in my opinion.
Did you have any conversations with people that were uneducated? I ended up with one that I didn't want to be in where the person I was talking with told me that Sarah Palin had a ton of foreign relations experience, and when I said, "Yup, 'cause she can see Alaska from her house!" (me, thinking this other person was being sarcastic...) said, "Oh, that was just Saturday Night Live, that's not what she really said."
That person got extremely, *extremely* angry with me when I said the Saturday Night Live sketch was word for word in most parts from the actual interview, and that I didn't find the sketch funny at all, I found it terrifying. She said I should go and try to find the actual interview since Sarah was clearly a genius and sounded "ready to be the next President!"
So anywho, it *may* not be racist people. It *may* just be extremely stupid people.
Obama spoke out against CA's Prop 8. Perhaps he wasn't emphatic enough, but he did say it was wrong.
It's interesting that Obama did not improve upon Kerry's percentage of Democrat support and only increased among Republicans and Independents by 3 percent. This seems to suggest that Obama may have benefited enormously by the increasing Democratic party id among the electorate as a whole. I'd love to see someone do the math and estimate what portion of Obama's overall increase is due to the increasing number of overall Democrats vs. his increase based on doing better with a smaller chunk of Republicans when compared to 2004. My guess is that over half of the change will be due to the overall Democratic trend of party identification. This suggests that much of the "Obama effect" can be understood as a partisan shift...which one could interpret in many ways, one of which is that this shift might lead to long term changes in politics beyond even Obama's tenure in office.
McCain/Palin got a higher percentage of gays and Muslims?! I guess that's probably just because Bush was so hostile toward them.
Brain Starks:
I agree that the partisan shift does explain most of his success. Any additional boost from higher AA and youth turnout may have been offset by lower support from working-class white Democrats. So long as the Dems do a good job with the economy and don't allow more terrorist attacks in the US, they should be able to hang on to a majority until the GOP resolves its coming civil war at least.
I too was puzzled over the drop in support from lesbians and gays. The Log Cabin Republicans couldn't have endorsed Kerry in 2004 as someone mentioned though; they are not allowed to endorse dems. I do think Bush worried them more than McCain though. Palin, with her "pray away the gay" church, was another matter though.
Still, 70% is a high percentage. I am a lesbian and I and every other gay and lesbian individual I know voted for Obama except maybe one person who always votes Republican. I understand and I think most gays/lesbians understand that candidates can't really come out in support of gay marriage at this time and that really Obama and Biden will be the best we've had (even better than Clinton) in terms of supporting gay rights in general. So we work to get them in office and work on what we can and tackle the more difficult issues later.
The passing of Proposition 8 was a horrible blow; perhaps some of the people who came out in support of Obama (most likely straight African Americans) also supported Prop 8. But it's also true that the Proposition was poorly worded and that some people may have been genuinely confused.
In the end, having Obama and Biden in office will be better for civil rights for everyone, and Prop 8 will eventually go the way of prohibition.
exit polls comparison for urban, suburban, rural voter?
Homeowners vs renters used to be common polling demographics, but I didn't see that this year.
Renters have <50 percent of homeo0wner median income and trail homeowners in net worth by a magnitude.
This would be an interesting demographic to break out. (I would break it down even further.)
Are there ANY polls this year which address this?
you say 'it was those people who have most reason to be concerned about the future who voted for Obama', but note that he also massively improved on Kerry among the top earners - despite it being very clear that McCain's tax plan was skewed towards them, while Obama's was skewed towards middle and low earners.
I think that shows there were a lot of people who voted Obama because they recognised his leadership qualities even though they won't gain any direct material benefit from his presidency.
Nate, as you know there is some very nasty and harmful stuff going on about how black voters supposedly put Proposition 8 over the top. We really need your opinion on this.
goatdan:
The map I linked to shows vote shifts: blue = change towards DEM, red = change towards GOP. The original is here, but you need to click on "voting shifts" to see it. There is more discussion on it in the DeLong blog post I mentioned. My three explanations for the red shifts:
1. White South (OK, AR, TN, NE TX, N AL, E KY, FL panh, SW WV, W PA -- but not VA, NC, SC, MS, rest of AL and TX; GA is ambiguous)
2. Black migration (S LA and MS)
3. Hometown effects (IL, DE, HI, AZ, AK?, MA, TX?)
[wv: unwor - McPalin is unwor of my support]
mirrormirror said...
"Minority populations in Europe are so low because there is no history of mass black slavery WITHIN the European continent. (Yes, we were complicit in the slave trade, but the slaves themselves were ending up in the plantations of the US and the Caribbean)."
Thank you so much for admitting this. Every time I go to Europe I get the sense that Europeans have either forgotten or willfully ignore that their countries and people started the American colonies and operated them for centuries.
You're all right about the size of minority groups, they're very small in Europe. Though the fact that France is only 12% visible minorities makes me wonder about why it's been so difficult to integrate them in the last few decades. Small percentage or not, there are things for you all to think about.
As for "Only in America," well this obviously ignores the multitude of countries that have already had non-White presidents. Granted the statement is trying to draw a contrast with Western countries with a large White majority, where it's fairer. I'm looking at you Canada. I want a South Asian or Chinese PM asap.
As for gender, America has elected a woman to every nearly every office but President. This is one area where it is definitely lagging behind, and I look forward to the day that this is amended. It's overdue.
I have not read every comment, but have to say that Obama has gained over Kerry because of several factors:
1. He appears Genuine
2. He is equally as knowledgable
3. He appears as an everyman
4. By American standards, he is an intellectual
5. He can evidently bridge divides
6. He is consistent of the stump
I am sure that there is more to it. But these factors appear to indicate why he is more popular and able to raise as much money as he did.
People just like him.
I've been experimenting a bit this evening. Reading about the Obama team's relationship with the "net roots," I decided to plot broadband penetration against Obama vote % and Obama % - McCain %. I did this with state data. Some correlation seems likely and the outliers make sense. See my Word face-Off blog. I'd be interested to hear some constructive criticism ;-)
Lesbian Obama-advocate here. All my queer friends are pro-Obama, but I do remember some kvetching about the sexism from Obama's campaign during the primaries.
70% of gays for Obama still shows an overwhelming tilt. However, since Obama and McCain had fairly identical stances on gay righs, and Sarah Palin actually vetoed an anti-gay state referendum, perhaps the gay rights factor was muted compared to Bush vs. Kerry, where Bush was perceived as a threat to gay rights, and Kerry as sympathetic.
But I'm wondering if it's just that more gays broke for independent candidates this time-- is there any breakdown for that?
The Green Party always gets some die-hards. And now there's also a conservative whose "keep your laws out of my personal life" stance may appeal to some in the LBGT community.
I found this thread on a queer blog showing a wide range of opinion about Ron Paul:
http://www.queerty.com/ron-paul-on-gay-marriage-20071210/
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^^ very nice
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The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china from the crowd of view, the buyer 25 to 40 years old mainly white-collar workers, accounting for about 40%, followed by consumer groups of students, accounting for about three into. According to statistics, 3G wholesale products in sales, compared with a 2G mobile phone sales are still a wide gap between, but since June has been, 3G mobile phones increase in the average monthly buy products for more than 50%, "11" period due to holiday business, the increase of more than 150%. Pk that the "11" after the peak sales of 3G handsets likely to usher in more stable growth.
From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.
By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.
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