DEVELOPING....
11.03.2008
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163 comments
98.1%!!!
hahaha, gotta love the Drudge siren
1.9% makes me tingle all over!
Under 2%????
That's a FIRST!!!!!!
WHOA OMG Drudge!!!! ALERT ALERT Obama hates COAAAAL
First time I have ever been pleased to see the Drudge siren.
Holy shit, we need to see the numbers!
98.1%!?!?!?!?!?
Sirens, indeed.
Matt Drudge has been looking for his siren. I hope you hold it for ransom in an effort to make it more profitable.
is that the siren! wooooot
LOVE IT!
I drink your milkshake all up
Ding! Ding Ding! Ding! Ding!
1.9%!!!
Something big must have happened, maybe on a state level. (Ohio??)
Shit, Drudge hacked this web site!
I wonder if there are big poll numbers, or if Virginia and Colorado have just been moved to 100%, because in one day, there isn't much of a chance that they will shift.
ooof under 2 percent that's gotta hurt.
You've got us all holding our breath. Both your map and our faces are turning blue.
Nate you make me all tingly inside.
just noticed the 98.1 %
lets finish strong
wv: palente- as in sara ******
Okay, seriously. I have to have your babies. I am sorry. There is just no denying it any more! And I don't even LIKE babies! Jeezo.
awesome!
Obama at 52% pop vote. Is this a first?
I will not be satisfied until I see McCain-0% sometime on Wednesday.
I laughed. Seriously, though, the most important numbers of the day seemed to be the Rasmussen numbers showing ties in the McCain-must-win swing states and decent Obama leads in PA, VA, and CO. Was that enough to push the victory percent to 98.1%?
I would have thought that slightly better numbers for McCain from Rasmussen would have hurt Obama's chances, not the other way around. Was a statistically significant lead in three states enough to do it, or was there a variety of other polls that showed Obama with better results?
Not concern trolling, just trying to understand and build up confidence for tomorrow.
WV: grapp... no more grapps of wrath after tomorrow!
Brian said...
Something big must have happened, maybe on a state level. (Ohio??)
I'm looking at the sidebar and I don't see any major change. I'm guessing that Nate is now telling the model that the election is today, meaning the clock has officially run out on McCain.
As Nate has pointed out more than once, a 5 - 8% lead means sooooo much more the day before an election than the same lead a month before an election. That's the reason why Mc's win percentage is so low.
I can't wait to vote tomorrow!
It's about time.
When yer down 11 in the Gallup with a half-day left yer toast.
When yer down 6 in Rasmussen and that's about the best poll goin' for you, you can screw the pooch.
McCain loses all Kerry (yes PA), loses IA, NM, and then loses CO.
For the loss.
BTW McCain dropped to 6.6 pence at IEM.
Now get this shit over so I can go back to my life!!
The projection must have snapped up to the trendline, as it's almost the 4th.
WV: Cressi, as in a nice cucumber and cressi sandwich.
Breaking?? You're a funny guy, Nate. :)
It's been a long, a long time comin'
but I know a change is gonna come
oh yes it will
The chomp is complete... and blue PacMan is the winner.
1.9% is more like it. Tomorrow evening it will be 0.00%.
Condolensces to Barack for Toot's passing.
My predictions: 390 EV for BHO
Senate: 57 Dems, plus Sanders and Joe the Lie-berman
House: pickup of 33 seats
138,254,589 popular votes with BHO winning 53.68% to McCain's 44.28%
Joe the Plumber will be looking for work in December 2008 (and McCain won't be hiring him).
Sarah Palin will face impeachment in Alaska and will "retire" to take a job at Fox "News" as a comentator. Her show will be a ratings loser but Murdoch will keep it going.
Zogby will be shown to be a right-wing fraud while Rasmussen will skate by.
Nate will become a basenall-politics double threat talking head.
BHO will appoint me to the Supreme Court.
Real Joe's opvaries will explode (since she's a w-o-m-a-n).
The guys who run this site will win a special Pulitzer for Internet coverage.
McCain will leave the Senate by next April and retire with Cindy to several of his 7 (or 9) houses. She will never mention that he is balding.
That about does it.
Except we have to go out and vote!
[banic - something the Pubs are doing about now.]
McCain has a ONE POINT NINE percent chance of winning!?!????????
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!
Dude... you're dangling a serious "fix" in front of the face of political junkies... give it up already! What's happened to bring McCain below 2%???
This election has been one of the most incredible in American history. As this finishes with a presumed Obama victory march, I can only say it's a well deserved outcome. I believe Sen. Obama has run the most well organized, disciplined, professional, and energized campaign I've ever known. If he was a general he would be a very successful one.
And on a personal note, as an Army Reservist I will be proud to call this level headed, intelligent, and thoughtful man, Commander in Chief.
God Bless the United States of America.
The people of the United States of America have judged this election not on the colour of the candidates skin but on the content of the candidates character. - Free At last indeed
McCain win percentage at 1.9% is GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN McCAIN!!!!
That's the first time I've seen that siren without gasping. Thank you for that.
Obama gains in PA and Virginia? Ohio, maybe?
Damn you and your teasers, Nate! Ok, I take that back.
R.I.P., Madelyn Dunham. :-(
She didn't get to see her grandson become the next elected president of the United States.
In the parallel universe of Bizzaro-world FOXnews, McCain is within one or two points in all tossup states, and ahead by 2 in Fla.
Back under 200 EV where he belongs!
McCain can still "win"...
http://www.truthout.org/110308A
Under 2! Hurrah!
98.1% of my face is now stuck in a very large smile. We has a happy!
I like the siren. It's so Drudge.
Please everyone. Go out and vote tomorrow. Don't let high percentages make you think it is over. We need every single vote to insure victory.
OBAMA 08!
Can someone tell me how to read the 'Tipping Point States' map? What do the colors and percentages represent?
Thanks!
ok i think my F5 key just got stuck...
nate will you please just tell us whats cooking??
dave-london, keep taking the happy pills.
Have today's state PPP polls been released yet???
I am so looking forward to your, "Why I was wrong post" on Wednesday.
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
I think its the national trackers 12 of them - all o/s margin of error.
comple= just missing the -te, this is complete.
That's GREAT NEWS! For Matt Drudge!
I can NOT WAIT to vote!!!
I'm chomping at the bit!
I'm going to set my alarm early even though I'm out of work and can just mosey on to the building NEXT DOOR to vote.
I want to be one of the first in line in my precinct here in the Lower East Side of Manhattan!
AAAAHHHHH!!!
CHOMP
The blue Pac Man has juuuuuuuust about finished off what's left of Drudge's so-called credibility.
Here's hoping that he and his HTML-by-a-retarded-one-handed-chimp website will slip away into obscurity in his mom's basement, where he fucking belongs.
[WP] mularpno. Like Schadenfreude, but specifically referring to the suffering of people who run HTML-by-a-retarded-one-handed-chimp websites. (Also applies to 93% of Myspace pages.)
"It's been a long, a long time comin'
but I know a change is gonna come,
oh yes it will"
Decemberist, I've been listening to that song constantly, and sent it to my boyfriend, a field organizer in Indiana.
98.1 makes my heart go pitter-patter.
Scushe: What we say to concern trolls.
"virtually tied within the margin of error"
--Major Garrett
"we will crush you"
--Baghdad Bob
Ya know, people do still have to VOTE to make these predictions a reality. It is definitely within our grasp -- now we ALL just have to get our and everyone we know's asses to the voting booths and *be prepared*: http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/Politics/story? id=6166407
- Lines will be long
- Disinformation will be rampant
- Don't be political (wear stuff for a candidate, hand anything out, discuss the candidates) at the voting places!!!
Let's get this shit done, tomorrow.
Folks,
Of course it's not his intention, but I'm a bit concerned that this posting and analysis will cause people to rest on their laurels.
I prefer to be in a mentality whereby all the swinging states are toss-ups, and each of us gives it everything we have.
yoyogurl, you are hilarious!
Three NC polls with a one-point lead for McCain and that state's percentage goes up? Has Nate been drinking something?
I won't be satisfied until I see McCain hit negative numbers.
Some Genius over at yahoo has McCain 273 with PA up in the air. Could the polls really be this wrong?
Fantastic! This Florida Independent mailed his absentee ballot for Obama on Saturday and is really anxious for tomorrow!
Servius said...
I am so looking forward to your, "Why I was wrong post" on Wednesday.
Me too.
I think Nate will have a lot of explaining to do when Obama blows McCain out of the water by 8+ points in the popular vote while getting well into the upper 300s (if not lower 400s) in the electoral vote.
Oh ... is that not what you meant?
Then prepare to be very, very, very sad. =)
CONGRATULATIONS, PRESIDENT-ELECT OBAMA!
(Yes, GOTV and all that, yatta yatta yatta -- but come on, I want to enjoy this moment of delicious anticipation!)
[wv] alessen: We will teach the right wing alessen they won't forget!
It seems straightforward. McCain is not flipping Pennsylvania. 5 polls out there show O+6,+7,+8,+10,+14. Which means McCain's only hope is to win ALL of the true battlegrounds. Figure that there are 7 "battlegrounds" in FL, OH, CO, VA, NC, MO, and NV. Flip a coin seven times ... the odds of you hitting tails all seven times in a row are 0.8%, which is where I figure McCain's final pre-vote estimated win percentage will be tomorrow morning on 538.
We early-voted for Obama here in FL last week and can hardly wait for the rest of you to get in there and make it happen! Gobama!
I just updated my Flickr Photostream of the charts. Feel free to check out the slideshow to get the "movie effect" of how the projections have changed.
"Don't think for a minute that power concedes!" said a very wise man. Do not forget this.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/nov4
Roughly 24 hours until the first polls close (excluding those odd ones in NH)...I'm not sure I can stand the suspense.
Let's go out and actualize it. Time to vote and knock on every door in America!
http://www.pentdego.com/prentjes/e2cf00.jpg
"Some XYZ has McCain Winning! OMGOMGOMGOMG WTF NATE IS TOTALLY WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!!1111ONEONEONEONE"
I don't think I'll miss this never-ending refrain from the campaign season.
Now go vote! Let's not get cocky.
IT'S NOT OVER!
WE STILL GOTTA GET TO THE POLLS!
Volunteer for the campaign tomorrow!
caredwen, I've been listening to that and "The times they are a changin'"
They are both on my ipod playlist and will be on repeat tomorrow on my way to vote and back home.
Obama/Biden '08!
PA 99%
CO 97%
VA 95%
OH 86%
For days Obama's projections have been significantly under the polling averages at this site, maybe 2%. It looks like that has been cut in half at the latest update.
Maybe the model thought it detected McCain momentum yesterday morning, but when more polls did not continue the trend today it changed its mind?
LOL at me psychoanalyzing a computer program
Good luck for tomorrow, America. Here's fingers crossed for your revolution.
x
Any sign of real joe this evening? Any announcement?
;)
I guess this proves if I can just peel myself away from the refresh button for a few hours, I will be rewarded with a big old blue pie chart! Yippee!!!! But I still won't fully exhale for 24 hours.
If you didn't early vote, please vote tomorrow!
I cannot freaking wait to wake up on Wednesday and know that very very soon I will have a President who I don't hate.
GObama!!
Reason for change:
1. Obama moves up in the national polls.
2. Solid state poll results for O in PA showing his slide there has ended well outside any margin of error.
3. One less day till election so projection is beginning to catch up to the snapshot. If there is no big poll movement tomorrow, it should move up a 0.8% of the popular vote, which is a huge jump.
Basically, McCain's only hope is that all the polls are wrong for some inexplicable reason. However, the polls are most likely to be wrong in McCain's favor considering cell phone effect, ground game, and enthusiasm levels.
Nate currently has Obama +6. I think it will be more like Obama +9.
Let's make Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reiley, and Rush Limbaugh cry!
Go VOTE!
Go VOLUNTEER!
Do it for "Toot"!
Holy shit, Obama's grandmother just died. ;_; Lady Luck is one mean bitch.
I hate to imagine the poor guy trying to be all up and election-night-y the day after losing the grandma who raised you, too.
Drudge headline:
OBAMA: Grandmother died today . . .
Grrr. That little hint of "he might be making it up."
I know what I'd like to do with that siren.
Erik Smith - They call it "Yahoo" for a reason, I think.
C'mon, people. No one stays home. Everyone votes. Let's make it a landslide so we can all go to bed early. Oh, and be a part of HISTORY.
I'm going to be able to tell my grandchildren that I canvassed and voted in the historic election that they learned about in their U.S. History class. As the man's slogan says, "Don't watch history. Make it."
"the odds of you hitting tails all seven times in a row are 0.8%, which is where I figure McCain's final pre-vote estimated win percentage will be tomorrow morning on 538."
That assumes independence between events, i.e., and thus have no correlation. (independence --> uncorrelated, but not vice versa). May or may not be true; just pointing that out.
I love your Drudge-style format with that blinking light and the word "developing" like he likes to do.
Looks like Barack's grandma is watching over him.
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
you must vote for this to come true.
don't let this fall apart because of complacency and premature celebration (there will be time for that)
Time to freak out for the next 36 hours when this will be over.
does anyone have access to latest FOX news/Rasmussen state reports? They are just release and all below the other polls of the same state. I wonder what their party ID weight is. I know FOX's reputation, but rasmussen was ok or not?
Is somebody trying to keep McCain's man marching or is the fellow on this site the only one who sees what we dont see?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15196.html
Rasmussen seems to have a consistent 2.5 - 3.0 lean towards McCain. If you apply that, then the state results from Rasmussen are in line with the other state polls.
"That assumes independence between events, i.e., and thus have no correlation."
should have been:
"That assumes independence between events; i.e., states move independently and thus have no correlation."
There is a Faux commercial on MSNBC. Great job, idiots.
538 has cured by e-bay habit and alloed me to save some $$. Thanks Nate.
Always be closing.....let's bring this home :)
Final Quinnipiac
PA
54 O
42 m
This is awesome, love it
98.1?? That is one tight-lipped, cyanotic-looking upward-faced pacman we have there. Everybody vote tomorrow, before he swallows a drop of acid rain or something!
So long as everyone remembers to VOTE!
And not just you. Get out everyone you know. Get their asses to the polls!
Thank God for your site, Nate, for giving us a dose of reality during this election process.
You naughty, naughty boy, Nate.
I have been waiting for this day. McCain's win percentage is exactly equal to the third-party popular vote projection. I've been checking the figures every day for over a month now seeing how close it was, now this magical day has come.
I just went to the Drudge Report for the first time in years. I thought it was a parody. Obama's giving a modified finger, Murtha's giving the devil horns, and ... what kind of a copyright notice is that?
Where's the link to Suicide Girls?
I can't believe I get to be the one...but McCain/Palin, ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!!!
Thank God. By 3:00 am Wednesday it'll all be over, I'll know who won the Georgia and Minnesota Senate races, and I'll be able to actually get some
1. sleep
2. work done
3. nookie
Thanks for ruining my life for the last three weeks, Nate.
Don't get giddy and start drinking 29 hours too early. All we're looking at are statistical probabilities. Look at the reality of our voting system today:
http://www.truthout.org/110308A
Get out the vote, this may be a squeaker.
What's that sound? I do believe the fat lady is warming up for her aria. I was going to say the final nail in the coffin of J. McCain, but that's out of bounds even for me. Just like Chirstmas... Can't wait 'til it is here, but then what will we do when it is over :-(
I think I'm getting an ulcer over all my anxiety over this election
18 of 19 Pundits predict big Obama win.
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/pundits-make-election-predictions/235299
Dunno what the model is seeing, but what I'm seeing isn't so much a big number shift as that the polls have upped their sample sizes significantly (state polls with samples of 1100 and 1200 instead of 600) and driven their MOE down from 3.5-4.2% to about 2.5-2.8%. This would also explain some (but not all) of the convergence in the numbers.
Strangely, the spread on the scenario distribution seems just as wide as before...
Florida, Quinnipiac University 10/27-11/2: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...ober-2008.html
Florida, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Florida, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: Obama 50%, McCain 48%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University 10/27-11/2: Obama 52%, McCain 42%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...ober-2008.html
Pennsylvania, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 54%, McCain 40%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Pennsylvania, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: Obama 53%, McCain 45%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Ohio, Quinnipiac University 10/27-11/2: Obama 50%, McCain 43%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...ober-2008.html
Ohio, University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll 10/29-11/2: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...ober-2008.html
Ohio, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 50%, McCain 44%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Ohio, Survey USA 10/30-11/2: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Ohio, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: Obama 50%, McCain 48%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Georgia, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, Barr 2%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
North Carolina, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: McCain 49%, Obama 48%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
North Carolina, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: Obama 50%, McCain 49%, Barr 1%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Virginia, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 51%, McCain 45%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Indiana, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: McCain 49%, Obama 44%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Missouri, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 47%, McCain 46%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Missouri, Survey USA 10/30-11/2: McCain 48%, Obama 48%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Minnesota, Survey USA 10/30-11/1: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...ober-2008.html
Nevada, Reuters Zogby 10/30-11/2: Obama 51%, McCain 43%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Montana, Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2: Obama 48%, McCain 47%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008...mber-2008.html
Does this mean that McCain's only chance is to rig the voting machines?
;-D
Is 98.1% superb? Of course. But it's not 100%, and that's when I'll be happy (and finally de-stress).
McCain's "comeback kid" strategy was really his only option; he HAD to do something to squelch all the infighting and negativity in the campaign and the party. The reality is though that NONE of that cheery disposition and false confidence changes ANYTHING; Obama still holds a comfortable lead, I believe that lead to be slightly overstated but real, and I think he'll win the electoral college tomorrow by a score of 326 - 212.
You and Jed have hijacked the siren! You have done the unthinkable and now the right wingnuts will be after you!!!
Mike, two things.
Probability of an event can only approach 0, never actually be equal to 0....and...probaility has no memory.
I hope McCain pulls out a miracle and wins. You're reporting on the campaigns, while excellency comprehensive has no doubt been bias. When McCain did anything well, you always downplayed it and tried to find ways to negate his accomplishments, while always playing up Obama's achievements. It's pathetic.
Furthermore, declaring the Obama "marches to victory" when the election hasn't even officially began is just unprofessional and highlights your biasness.
While I do concede that Obama most likely has this election in the bag, there are circumstances that could provide McCain with a win. Will the youth vote turn out as expected? Is there going to be a bradley effect?
If McCain wins VA, then it's going to be somewhat interesting, if he loses VA (as well as PA, which he will), then it's all but over.
But how about you don't jump to conclusions 24 hours before the election actually starts?
If you do this blog in 2012 I hope you are more impartial.
Drudge is a "fascist and propagandist"...developing....
The mockage of Obama being "JUST" a Community Organizer has gone silent.
Having seen and participated IN Obama's Organization of the Communities, McCain wishes he could have had such a ground game.
I spent all day today making phone calls to get out the vote in downtown Atlanta along with 20 other people.
GObama
The smart number crunchers have all but written John McCain off. He has us all right where he wants us.
This confirms there are 190 ways for a McCain White House*.
* - out of 10,000
Guess what "B," even the McCain campaign is secretly saying it is over. Just because the numbers aren't going your way doesn't mean that Nate, Sean, and Brett are biased, it simply means that your candidate has no message, has no real grasp on the issues facing Americans... and the American people realize that! The numbers back that up.
HuffPo vs Drudge - PAGEVIEW SMACKDOWN!
http://tinyurl.com/5ue5yc
You all have such short memories. Rudy Guilliani anyone? Hilliary Clinton? Both of whom had huge leads and looked to be winners of their respective party nominations, but we all know what happened.
And yeah, it would take a miracle for McCain to turn it around - the gap is simply too big, and there's too little time now.
However, in a campaign that's defied conventional wisdom, anything can happen - and for you to naively declare Obama as the victor already is just wrong.
I'm not really fond of McCain but I want him to win because I feel he's the lesser of two evils. I now also want him to win just so all of you learn a lesson not to write people off and not to make any wild declarations before it's actually over.
Again, if McCain can win VA tomorrow night, then it's game on.
Fat Lady is warming up
Fat lady warming up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-XpI8ua1Jw
(sorry about double post)
B:
Nate -openly states- he has an Obama bias. His analysis clearly leans Blue. His MODEL on the other hand, does not.
wv: pepar. i.e.: Excitedly making peparations to see Obama embrace history in Grant Park tomorrow.
(Given the StL Blues reference in the MO thread): That siren is as loud and telling as one for an overtime playoff goal!!
"Below - below - below. Yo-ho, let's open up and sing and ring the bells out.
Ding Dong' the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
Let them know,
But we've got to verify it legally, to see,if he, Is morally, ethic'lly,Spiritually, physically,Positively, absolutely,Undeniably and reliably.
Then this is a day of Independence For all the people,and their descendants.
Yes, let the joyous news be spread The wicked Old Witch at last is dead!"
McCain has a better chance at winning VA than he does PA, no matter what anyone says.
If McCain loses both those states, though, then it's over.
If he can turn it around in VA (or do the unthinkable and win PA), then it seriously is game on.
Either way, it's going to be somewhat closer than the polls are suggesting because of the Bradley Effect. Now, how much of an effect will that have coupled with how big the youth turn out is is anyone's guess, and both those elements could still provide McCain with a slight victory.
Because of those 2 unknowns, it really is foolish to declare Obama the victor.
What's more, my real problem with all this is that this site is SUPPOSE to be impartial, providing thought provoking analysis. For the most part, it has accomplished that, but not with this post.
It's a very amateur thing to do to declare a winner so prematurely. I mean, why bother even having the election then in the first place if we already know the outcome?
Or maybe Obama should give his victory speech tonight before the election even begins? Think about how he would get lambasted for sheer arrogance (as he was when he thought he was already President when he toured Germany this summer).
Thus, a political analyst shouldn't jump to such conclusions either.
You've given McCain ~2% chance of winning, which signals a very very very high chance OBama will win. However, 2% is not 0%. McCain still has a chance, as slim as it may be, and for you to ignore that fact is, once again, just wrong.
If McCain wins tomorrow night I hope you enjoy your sour grapes and have humble pie for desert, while you'll have egg on your face. It's no less than you deserve for such a foolish post.
The 1.9% pacman is great. Do we get to see it at 0% after the election is called? O beautiful sight!
Okay, B. Seriously. The model is just math, but the analysis is blue-team.
You say: "this site is SUPPOSE to be impartial[. . .]"
You're just making things up, now. Where's it say that 538 is supposed to be impartial?
From the FAQ:
"What is the mission of this website? Most broadly, to accumulate and analyze polling and political data in way that is informed, accurate and attractive. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections."
And later, Nate clearly says he hopes his bias doesn't interfere with his -results-. His analysis and personal projections are a different matter entirely.
You're looking for reasons, B, to hate on liberals having something to get excited for. This post is foolish? Your naive misinterpretation of the media you consume is what's foolish. Talk about sour grapes.
WV: Parmyo. ie.: "What kind of cheese you want, homeslice?" "The parm, yo"
Nate, I've been asking you to give me a sub-1% McCain ... but I didn't mean to actually go out and do it....
Um, you still have to shave off .91%, but I appreciate the effort. Gonna be hard to sleep tonight.
291+84=375
I love it
Amazingly, Nate and Rove pretty much agree.
Great! America is about to go socialist... Step aside Bush, here comes Karl Marx!
Thanks Nate for all the polls, stats, and analysis that I've been reading since May. See you next baseball season.
Now, as they say in Chicago, this one's for John and Sarah Sideshow..."Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, hey hey hey, goodbye!"
OBAAAMMMAAAAA!!!
Anyone else having problems signing up for the text updates? I'm freaking out. I'm going to need those updates as I'll be at the polls and out volunteering all day!
B, you are a pathetically mediocre person. your opinions are misinformed, simplistic, and likely come from some deep-seeded racist tendencies. unfortunately, your pitiful use of the english language makes taking you seriously impossible.
you misused the term bias itwice in one post .... the reporting is BIASED....declaring obamas victory highlights BIAS.....biasness is not even a word you imbecile....ughh you poor fool... you are just the type of moron that would support a ticket with palin on it... oh yeah, and bringing up the bradley effect just belies your racist bias..... learn some critical thinking skills.
"I hope McCain pulls out a miracle and wins. You're reporting on the campaigns, while excellency comprehensive has no doubt been bias. When McCain did anything well, you always downplayed it and tried to find ways to negate his accomplishments, while always playing up Obama's achievements. It's pathetic.
Furthermore, declaring the Obama "marches to victory" when the election hasn't even officially began is just unprofessional and highlights your biasness.
While I do concede that Obama most likely has this election in the bag, there are circumstances that could provide McCain with a win. Will the youth vote turn out as expected? Is there going to be a bradley effect?
If McCain wins VA, then it's going to be somewhat interesting, if he loses VA (as well as PA, which he will), then it's all but over.
But how about you don't jump to conclusions 24 hours before the election actually starts?
If you do this blog in 2012 I hope you are more impartial.
How's this for ya then -
I believe in change alright, in the sense that McCain is going to change those poll numbers and come out victorious. You gotta believe....
Yeah, Obama looks like he'll def win this. But there are still a few factors currently undetermiend that could nudge McCain ahead:
1.) The Youth Vote - Notorious for not coming out and voting, the youth are even more critical in this election than ever before since they form Obama's base. Chances are it will be a good turn out since it seems like Obama has really motivated the youth, but we've said this before and the media's hype never turns to reality as the youth constantly stay home. If the youth fail to come out, expect a much closer race and a possible win for McCain
2.) The Bradley Effect - This deals with people lying in polls as to not appear racist or the like. Some people may claim in polls that they're voting for Obama so they don't appear racist but when it comes to the privacy of the voting booth they will choose McCain. This effect is very real, but the scope of it is unknown - but will def make the election somewhat closer than what the polls are currently showing.
The Bradley effect alone won't nudge McCain over the tipping point, but in conjucntion with low youth turn out, McCain could very well "steal" this election.
They 2 key states for tomorrow night are VA and PA - both currently leaning towards Obama. McCain is more likely to take VA, if either. However, he NEEDS to take at least one of those two. If Obama wins both, as currently predicted, then it's all but over. But if McCain can turn it around and pick off VA (or, less likely, PA) then it's game on.
So while Obama has a very strong advantage, and it's almost impossible for McCain to win, don't rule out the maverick just yet.
In a campaign that has defied conventional wisdom, anything can still happen.....
Just my take on the situation. Come on McCain, SURGE to victory!
First results are in from dixville notch NH. Obama 15, McCain 6.
The landslide has started.
The Bradley Effect was arguably even an myth in the Bradley election. The last polls were showing the race tightening considerably and some showed him behind.
Most of the polls are being pretty conservative with the youth vote. Likely voters almost automatically disqualifies them, although some polls have started expanding their likely voter definition. But Obama still has huge leads even with traditional likely voters.
And "marches toward" still doesn't say that it'll definitely happen. He's just saying that it's very likely. 98.1% qualifies IMO. Check out the posts from yesterday for some McCain win scenarios.
This is amazing. I went volunteering in my area and even high school girls were commenting on my Obama shirt!
BUT SERIOUSLY GUYS, VOTE TOMORROW!!
DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!
I think we'd all prefer to wake up Wednesday to Obama winning by a bigger landslide than losing by a hair!
-Nick G. from Tampa
*screenie* of those pie charts next to the drudge siren for my mementos!!
I am so broken-hearted by the passing of Madelyn on the eve of the election. May she RIP.
58 minutes into Election day and even pharmaceuticals aren't going to help me sleep.
My county here in NM is probably red and almost every morning I have to go wash the disgusting vandalism off my Obama yard sign if it hasn't been stolen. (This is one of the lovely aspects of living close enough to west Texas that I can probably throw a heavy rock and almost hit the state line thanks to years of summer softball league.) My state is Blue, holding steady and I am so proud! We have the best green chili ever too.
Someone should write a book on how only junk food corporations are trying to bribe Americans to get out and vote. Starbuck$, Krispy Kreme and Ben & Jerrys are all giving away free stuff tomorrow if you tell them you voted. This is interesting. I aspire to be published non-technically, but I am a wee math/CS type.
1.9% I am off to use GIMP and make some really nifty memories of this occasion!!
Thanks everyone at FiveThirtyEight!! Numbers are so cool, and what you do with numbers is well...
Vote America!
I agree with what a previous poster said. I really need to get some sleep and get back to my normal life. I have never been so involved in an election before - emotionally, financially, and spending time volunteering. I'm firmly behind Obama, but I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS TO BE OVER!!! My stress level is off the charts and when I'm able to sleep, I dream about the election. So sad. But thanks to Nate and everyone at 538 for their meticulous work. And thanks to my brother (I think) for turning me on to this site and contributing to my innate obsessive/compulsive issues. GO VOTE!!
This made me check out the Drudge Report. Oh the joy. What a fit that strange hunchback is throwing, trying to spin for McCain in the middle of a hurricane for Obama blowing the other way.
Breaking news! Dewey defeats Truman!
Let's not get too arrogant here :-)
I love you.
Dear Nate and everyone who has run this site,
Thank you a million times for this. You kept me sane and very happy and hopeful throughout this long, emotional process.
A victory song that needs to be on the list is "Long time comin'" by Buffalo Springfield. And you know the darkest hour is always just before the dawn.
It's been a long time coming indeed. I wish Otis Redding were hear to see this election night.
It ain't over until it's over; I am excited to see what the 7pm ET poll closing results are going to look like in VA and others.... I sure hope this is a short night.
Go Bless Everyone on Earth
1.1%, thanks for the LULZ!
Obama, change we need!
Dear Nate & all 538 contributors,
Thank you for this magnificent website and for all your thoughtful and interesting analysis over the past several months. We've all come to trust your analysis so much, as evidenced by your nightly appearances on various "liberal media" outlets. I am hoping so desperately that your final projections are right and Obama wins this thing by a landslide.
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