It's amazing how much convergence there has been in the national numbers over the past 24 hours. All 13 polls included in the RCP average, plus the Research 2000 national tracker, has this race between 5 points and 11 points in Obama's favor, essentially within one another's margins of error. All but two of those pollsters have race between 5 points and 9 points.
What do I think this means? Has the race settled down some?
Perhaps in some proverbial sense it has. But I also think that pollsters peek at one another's results, and that there's something of a herd mentality not to be the one who falls out of line. Remember, folks, it's these final sets of national numbers that will go down on the record for all time's sake. Remember also that a pollster has a lot of legitimate wiggle room for how they put their turnout models together. I'm not accusing anyone of anything in particular, but this is the time of year when a lot of pollsters might be tempted to put their fingers on the scale.
11.03.2008
National Polls Magically Converge!
@ 4:27 PM
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78 comments
At FIRST I did not see this post.
go obama! 1 more day.
Any chance you can post an updated graphic regarding the inclusion of cell phone in polls. I found that to be very informative, and encouraging.
Maybe they aren't just peeking at others' polls, they're checking out websites like yours and pollster.com. It seems likely.
Which is one more reason to be paranoid, I suppose, about these polls' reliability...?
(rueful grin)
24 hours to go...
Hey everyone - how about posting your election predictions here? Everyone make their predictions today, and we'll see how it all stacks up tomorrow.
What is your prediction on: The electoral vote, the popular vote percentage, the Senate, and the House.
To get the ball rolling, here's my predictions:
Electoral college: 336 to 202.
Popular vote: 52% to 47%
Senate: 58 to 40 (and Lieberman will announce sometime in the upcoming weeks he'll start canvassing with the Republicans)
House: 271 to 164
So, what's your predictions?
Electoral college: I'm sticking with 375, even it it seems overly optimistic
Popular vote: 52% to 46%
Senate: 58 to 40 (and Lieberman will stick with the Dems)
House: haven't the slightest
The last two cycles were very close and come down to a single state.
Since this cycle is not like this, I would expect the polls to be more or less correct.
InTrade and NPR are also predicting Obama wins. It would seem to me that a McCain win now would be highly suspect. That is, of course, unless Obama supporters are stupid enough to sit home on their asses.
GOTV!! NO TIME TO LET UP!
And... if you (weighted) average all the state figures for president (consensus figures downloaded from electoral-vote.com) you get ...
Obama +8.0
...pretty much in the middle of the national tracking poll of polls range. That figure has been between 7.8 and 8.6 since Oct 23.
So, more consensus, and from a figure with a huge N (all the state polls).
I missed posting this in the last thread, so I am going to plop it in here...
I drew up my election night guide today and this is how I am breaking it down – for me it is what will we know, when. In drawing up the spreadsheet, I found that on election night, it will come down to two questions, ‘How good is our data’ and ‘Do the networks have any sack when it comes down to calling states.’
So this is what I did, I broke down the races into three groups: close races, indicators, and crazy safe. I took the 13 closest races based on 538.com’s projections, all within 7% differential between the two candidates:
State Close EV BHO-JSM
Virginia 1900 13 4.7
Indiana 1900 11 -1.8
Georgia 1900 15 -5.2
Ohio 1930 20 2.5
North Carolina 1930 15 0.3
Pennsylvania 2000 21 6.9
Florida 2000 27 1
Missouri 2000 11 -0.8
Colorado 2100 9 5.3
Arizona 2100 10 -6.1
Nevada 2200 5 3.2
Montana 2200 3 -2.7
North Dakota 2300 3 -2.8
If networks call any of these races within two hours of the polls closing, that would be the strongest indication of how the night is going to go. But, since I doubt the networks have the cojones to do this, I have a list of the next twenty closest races – ten each being led by Obama and McCain.
State Close EV BHO-JSM
South Carolina 1900 8 -11.3
Kentucky 1900 8 -14.5
West Virginia 1930 5 -10.2
New Jersey 2000 15 12.7
Maine 2000 4 12.1
New Hampshire 2000 4 7.9
Mississippi 2000 6 -12.3
Tennessee 2000 11 -15
Arkansas 2030 6 -12.3
Michigan 2100 17 11.2
Wisconsin 2100 10 9.8
Minnesota 2100 10 9.2
New Mexico 2100 5 8.6
South Dakota 2100 3 -9.7
Louisiana 2100 9 -11
Texas 2100 34 -11.9
Iowa 2200 7 10.9
Oregon 2300 7 14.3
Washington 2300 11 13.2
Alaska 2500 3 -14.2
The 7:00 hour will be the nail-biter for the GOP – Will these be big enough wins to get the networks (other than Fox News) to project McCain the winner quickly? In 2004, NBC called KY immediately, WV within 20 minutes of the polls closing, and SC about 90 minutes after the polls closed. Then it is the Democrats’ turn at 8 – NJ and ME were called immediately in 2004 with NH dragging into the next day. TN was called immediately, but both MS and AR took another 90 minutes after the polls closed to be sorted out.
Then things get interesting in indicator-state-land:
In 2004 Bush was the immediately projected winner in SD and TX, with LA being delivered (presumably by Domino’s) in thirty minutes or less. The blue states closing at 9 were not so quick to give up their victor –MI and MN being projected in the wee hours, WI and NM (at least we think it will be blue) much later.
Again, these are not even the really close races. Now I know this is not the same race as it was in 2004, but anyone hoping for the networks to call Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, or any of the other really juicy races before one in the morning may be very disappointed….
Cheers,
Chris
wv: Prowd - does anyone need a definition?
Wow Nate - I said exactly the same thing in the last thread and gave the same reason. I wouldn't dare say our minds converged but....
krupece: Danish coin of negligible value
nate,
Thanks, as always. My only disagreement is that I am not convinced that there are not other times that they would want to cook the books.
GOBAMA!!!
wv: dizedne - Palin's IQ
I think it is going to go more positive for Obama than the polls are telling us. I think 10+ for him, and FL, GA, ND all go to him. Bizar.
This just when Obama's gran dies... It won't feel quite as good now for him, that's a shame.
> Lieberman will announce sometime in
> the upcoming weeks he'll start
> canvassing with the Republicans
He may... but he's gonna be really unhappy in a party which suddenly finds itself farther to the right than ever, and with the so-called moderate leader on the sharp end of the knives.
Maybe Joe the Republican Senator will help lead them out of the wilderness, but I think he's more likely to be wandering by himself... and deservedly, IMHO.
TYPO: "All 13 polls included in the RCP average, plus the Research 2000 national tracker, has this race. . . ."
Should be "All 13 polls . . . HAVE," not "has".
I'm predicting a 273 - 265 Obama win.
Obama 368 - McCain 170
PA, CA, NC, VA, OH, GA, CO, NV to Obama
IN, AZ, MO, ND, MT to McCain
54.5%- 44.7%
57 - 41 - 2 in the senate
House: a lot to not so much
WV: affrem - coming up blank, any ideas?
Poll convergence is great news FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
It's that time of year again: When all the pollsters simultaneously recognize that Rasmussen is the best pollster. Oh well.
Tonfie: A hipster.
Quick question. Fairly new following polling, and I was wondering something.
How accurate are the polls in predicting the Presendital race?
Historically, I mean, have the polls been indicative of the vote?
I know statistically that the sample usually reflects the population (particularly over a period of time and with the number of samples taken such as this election cycle), BUT has there been a case where the polls have been way off base?
Thanks,
dj
From the previous thread:
There won't be a Bradley Effect. There are two things that most polls aren't taking into account: they are under-representing young voters (read the separate discussion of cell phones vs landlines) and they are not taking any account of the two campaigns' comparative strength on the ground. The Democrats have the strongest GOTV organization that we've ever seen, and the Republicans have scaled theirs way back -- but the polls are assuming the two organizations are going to be equally effective. If that assumption is right, there's no point to having an election-day organization.
From my political organizer days, I remember that putting good volunteers into an area can add 10-15% to your vote total in that area. I think that's still true. Whatever the effectiveness of GOTV efforts, it isn't zero, but that's what the polls are assuming.
I'm predicting Obama 393, McCain 145. And I think that, if anything, that's too cautious. This smells like a historic landslide, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama over 400.
How did I get 393? All the states Kerry won plus CO, FL, GA, IA, IN, MO, ND, NV, NM, NC, OH, and VA.
Juris,
Thank you for the catch... there are a red pen in the mail too you (and some white-out for your monitor).
Predictions:
Obama with 364EV
Radical_Center by two typos over Juris
Loserman will be SOL with the GOP. (either that or he will chair the paperclip procurement subcommittee for the next four years)
Sarah Palin will become a grandmother (again).
John McCain will stay grumpy.
WV: eripa - who Sarah Palin will replace on that Live with Regis show.
Prediction from last week:
8+PV.
400+EV.
(adding Now): 59 Sen. and pick up of 23 in Hse.
Much of this tsunami will be due to lower than expected Repub turnout.
Prediction:
353-185
52.5-45.5
257-178
57-41
Lieberman caucuses with the Dems but loses his Committee chairmanship. He won't join the Reps - in his mind he's a Democrat, although having problems with his party's candidate. If the GOP were the way it was some 50 years ago I could see it, but given its almost fanatical right-wing character, no way.
If Gordon Smith's campaign here in Oregon weren't so two faced and sleezy, I would almost regret his losing.
Figure that polls will be open late because of people standing in line, First state call at 7:55 EDT. Networks start calling entire race clear by 10:00 pm EDT., but have called in internally just after 9:00. Outcome clear well before that.
Since we're on PDT, I might even make my 7:45 breakfast meeting.
wv=immiden
Where immis go to sleep.
Part of the convergence would be due to the fact that now all pollsters include "early voters" in their polls where some were being weeded out by differences in the early voter models.
My thoughts exactly. IBD/TIPP and BG can claim "accuracy" in 2010 and 2012. Or there was a bump from Obama's ad and a good day of polling for McCain on Halloween that maybe the pollsters are deciding to discard today...
Prediction, older low-education white undecideds break a bit for McCain:
Obama +3 and change
Obama 311, McCain 227.
Obama picks up IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, OH (barely, not called until tomorrow).
Senate D+6 (Dole hangs on by her fingernails, blah)
House D+18
CZ,
My prediction was 369 EV for Obama. But I didn't count possible EV totals, so maybe your 368 is closer.
I have a strong feeling the number is going to bve thereabout.
When you look at aggregated polls anywhere else on the internet (cnn electoral map, for instance), the race is always significantly tighter than on 538.
Also, even speaking as a liberal myself, it seems all the blogs are about how poor McCain's ground game is.
But even if you admit this site and these algorithms have a liberal bias, McCain would have to win CO, VA, FL, OH, and every other swing state except PA to win this election. I can't see McCain winning every single toss-up.
Palin'....what you do when your boat is sinking?
A herd has only one mind and that can as easily be wrong as a loner.
I am guessing that Gallup is nearest.
1) It uses cellphones.
2) It's instability is most likely honesty. It picks up the short trends that Rasmussen pasts over.
3) I think it's assertion that the undercided are breaking for Obama believable. Obasma "feels" more like a president.
So for me Obama 55% McCain 44% or maybe even better.
Yeah, shocking.
This is why I think the test for polls should be a week before the election, not the day before. Who cares how close the poll is on November 3rd when the results from June 1st-November 2nd were so different?
Here are my predictions
* 57 Democratic Senate seats
* 43 Republican Senate seats
* 369 Obama Electoral Votes
* 169 McCain Electoral Votes
* 54.9 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
* 43.9 McCain Popular Vote Percentage
wv : grappe : a grape rape
388 for Obama
So...is this 'convergence' the reason we have traditionally seen polls 'tightening', or is it a legitimate statistical observation of voter attitudes? Finally we see the cause of the legendary tightening...?
WV: 'blettu': (n) Late Northern Martian for 'luck'. As used in the phrase, "Blettu Barackobama Niktu", a traditional Election Day blessing bestowed by Martian visitors travelling back in time to witness the historic election of Obama on Nov 4th, 2008.
Absolutely, an individual pollster should be held accountable for at least the last month. Last poll is just "cook the books" chickensh*t.
You guys are crazy to think BHO will win more than 300 EVs. You have no idea how tight this race has gotten in the last 2 days. Here is my prediction.
Starting with the 2004 EV Map.
BHO wins everything Kerry has plus NV/CO/NM/IA.
He wins this 278-260.
IF and this is a big IF, PA goes to J Mac then it is all over for BHO. JSM will close strong in OH/VA/NC and I have no doubt they will stay red.
Latest Alaska poll (Hays Research - you can argue the methodology)
McCain/Palin (strong) 46.6
McCain/Palin (lean) 1.7
Obama/Biden (strong) 43.9
Obama/Biden (lean) 0.7
Other 2.0
Undecided/Refused 5.1
Margin of error 4.9%, 400 "households which have voted in 2 of the last 4 elections"
http://www.haysresearch.com/OC110208.htm
They have interesting results on Sarah Palin's popularity too.
1 more day. I am anxious wreck, and I live in Toronto.
Thanks for saying what I have long observed. It always amazes me how polls miraculously converge prior to an election.
Of course that does little to renew my faith in polls in general.
If it can be this close the day before, why wouldn't it be 2 weeks out?
JUST GET OUT AND VOTE! TOMORROW IS THE ONLY POLL THAT MATTERS (early votes are in the bag one way or the other). But there will be no say come Nov 5.
VOTE! CALL YOUR FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS! GET PEOPLE TO THE POLLS!
Rest later.
Nick, the only thing tightening is whatever is around your neck causing a lowered oxygen level to your brain. Even AK seems to be in play.
NATE
you are being too diplomatic IMHO
it is readily apparent that many of the tracker pollsters have suddenly seen the light & as you say magically adjusted their #'s
obviously there were substantial 'house effects'
[intentional BIAS] built into more than a few of the more partisan pollsters
they succeeded in driving their agenda & a narrative for most of the campaign
coincidence ? I think not...
you are being much too kind,my friend...
273-265
273-265
273-265
273-265
273-265
*says the pessimist*
predictions:
Obama, 360 range
Dems pick up 7, im pessimistic about Franken, 2004 really taught against optimism
so, at 58-42, Lieberman drops out of Democratic Caucus, doesn't join Republican (if he can do that?).
race is called by, at the very latest, 11 oclock eastern time. Obama finishes speech by midnight.
So long as people get out to vote tomorrow
Barack will exceed all polling expectations
and this is why:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
I think that FL is the state to watch because I can't find a single realistic path for McCain without FL. Let's hope that they don't screw it up like in 2000.
Of course, VA, OH, PA are still very important, but are likely going Obama.
NH is a lock for Obama, the popular tide has turned very harshly against McCain, I'd even say that many people feel a bit betrayed by him. The good will that won him NH in the 2000 and 2008 primaries is gone and then some.
WV: noggiviv= What the republicans stammer when someone tries to "Spread" their wealth.
I'm going to leave two possibilities. And just to preempt the trolls, yes, I do happen to be a chickensh*t.
Scenario 1: Republicans' last-minute ad "Would you go under with a doctor who had never perfomed surgery before?" is their most effective of the campaign. It manages to scare enough people that Obama ONLY wins 348 EVs--everything now solid blue. They should have been running it all summer... and chosen a veep who wouldn't put the lie to it. 58 Senate Democrats. Saxby Chambliss reelected in Georgia, much to my chagrin.
Scenario 2: Long lines cause disaffected Republicans to pack it in while high-elan Democrats wait in line all day in a holiday atmosphere. Obama adds NC, ND, GA, MO, IN to totals for 393 EVs. Elizabeth Dole gets only 35 percent of the vote, but Dems STILL only get 58 Senate seats, including Lieberman. Georgia Senate race goes to a runoff, which Saxby Chambliss wins, again much to my chagrin.
Anyone else confused why Research 2000 (Daily Kos) poll went from strong Obama to middle-of-the-pack? It doesn't look like the range of polls is much different now than it was a few weeks ago, yet R 2000 is down from O + (9-12) to O + (5-7)...
RIP, Toot. Condolences to the entire Obama family.
If Obama doesn't win the election (according to the final "results"), it will be because eligible voters were deprived of their right to vote and/or their votes weren't counted, through calculated and partisan voter suppression and vote manipulation efforts. There's a sickening amount of evidence that such efforts are taking place this year, just like in 2000 and 2004.
Please make sure that everyone has the number for the free Election Protection hotline and brings the # with them when they go to vote:
1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)
This hotline is run by the largest non-partisan Election Protection coalition in the country.
You can also email them at: help@866ourvote.org
or via text message through Twitter.
More info at http://www.866ourvote.org
If you have a voting issue at your polling place, document it before you leave (e.g., cell phone video, photos, names of witnesses, etc.)
For additional information on voting problems and election protection, go to:
http://truth.voteforchange.com
http://www.MLandman.com/resourcelinks/obama.html
http://www.videothevote.org (to document election problems)
http://sites.google.com/site/protecttheelection2008/
http://www.nomorestolenelections.com
Sadly, we can't really call our country a democracy if our election system can be (and is) rigged.
Obama 400+ EV.
O 55% v M 42%
What do I win?
My prediction from roughly 8-9 days ago:
Popular Vote: Obama 54, McCain 44, Nader 1, Barr 1 (Obama +10)
Electoral Vote: Obama 375, McCain 163
Now, the past week has seen a lot of states that previously would have been unthinkable (AZ!) suddenly moving into legitimate pickup range; I had been working on the theory that, once Obama gets NC, MO, and IN, that he'd be running up the popular vote without necessarily winning any more electoral votes, at least for a noticeable gap.
If I were to recast my prediction today, I'd probably revise that EV total upward to 396 or so (add ND, MT, and GA).
Still, my original expected range (95% confidence interval, if you will), is something like Obama by +8 to +12 in popular vote, and about Obama with 338 to 406 EVs.
[WV] enesturb: Inexplicable shifts in energy proposals that disturb rational thought processes, e.g. "Drill, baby, drill!"
NickPP writes:
>You have no idea how tight this race has gotten in the last 2 days.
We have some idea - we have numbers and stuff.
>Starting with the 2004 EV Map.
This is where you go wrong. Start from the 2008 map - it's more up to date...
[boring stuff deleted]
>IF and this is a big IF, PA goes to J Mac then it is all over for BHO.
Yep, and if CA goes for JSM, it is over too, but that is somewhat unlikely too.
>JSM will close strong in OH/VA/NC and I have no doubt they will stay red.
Okay, I'll play along... Let's say the polling is wrong by 5 points in Obama's favor. JSM wins VA, NV, OH, FL, and NC where Obama is allegedly ahead. Obama still wins CO, PA and takes the oath of office as the 44th POTUS. Six points you say? CO goes to JSM, we have a 269-269 tie that will go to the House (not the Supreme Court like 2000) and Obama has his hand on the Bible.
If you are willing to suspend enough disbelief to believe that all of these polls have seven points of Bradley in them, then you can find your way to the McCain administration, but I don't see it... and the numbers don't either...
Sorry.
WV: pureory - a contraction for what conservatives think natural selection is...
prediction?
Obama 396 EV.
54.8 to 43.1 popular vote.
D's get 59 in the Senate, but that sadly includes Lieberman and Sanders.
BHO will outperform the polls and out-GOTV anyone's wildest expecations.
Obama gets IN, ND, MT, VA, NC, GA, and the 1 EV from Omaha (NE-2).
My Republican brother lives in Omaha and is convinced that Obama will win there.
For those of you into numerology, giving Obama those states plus Omaha equal 402 EV's, and the area code for Omaha is "402".
EVs
353 for Obama
185 for McCain
Popular Vote
Obama 51.2%
McCain 46.3%
Other 0.5%
Also, to respond to people asking what is the low popular vote total required to win the electoral college. I know this is stupid, but it's technically possible to win the electoral college with 11 total votes nationally.
Maybe the polls are converging because their likely voter models are converging. The weekend before the election, it should be a lot easier to figure out who is really going to vote. That should be especially true this year, since the pollsters can test their assumptions about who will vote based on who has already voted.
Sorry, correcting a mistake...
Popular Vote
Obama 52.1%
McCain 47.1%
Other 0.8%
I'll go conservative (!):
EC: 278 O - 260 M. I think it'll be closer than anyone has predicted.
I predict FL, MO, OH, VA, and NC go to McCain and O takes Kerry + CO, IA, NM, NV. I don't see O getting any pickups in GA, MT, or ND.
Popular vote: 52% to 46%
Senate: 59-41. Franken and Shaheen win. Landrieu is re-elected. Liddy Dole gets a well-deserved retirement. No upsets in GA or KY.
House: No clue.
I hope I am proven wrong and O wins in a blowout, but I'm not optimistic.
WV: myzqyx. Wasn't he an arch-nemesis of Superman?
@Radical_Center and others.
No need to flame me out guys. I am a strong BHO supporter and have made calls on his behalf and have sent money to his campaign. I have always questioned the numbers here and believe me when a poll is within 5 points, IT IS CLOSE because it will get within the MOE by tomorrow.
NV/OH/IN/VA/NC are ALL within the MOE by tomorrow.
I do have him winning 278-260 and I will take a 270-268 win any given day.
So, PA IMO is extremely important and stop throwing in "JSM can with CA" analogies because that will never happen. BHO has a better chance of winning PA than JSM has a better chance of winning CA so you can stop with that.
I like you, want BHO to win but I think I am being more realistic of his map than yo are. If he wins by a wider margin then of course I will be eating crow but that won't happen.
I incorrectly wrote:
>Six points you say? CO goes to JSM, we have a 269-269 tie that will go to the House (not the Supreme Court like 2000) and Obama has his hand on the Bible.
My bad, this scenario gives McCain the 274-264 victory. This, plus flipping NV give you the tie.
I'm Radical_Center, and I approved this correction...
wv: flotte - much more than a lotte.
I think O will get:
Kerry states + CO, NM, IA, VA (MAYBE Ohio)
It's hard to believe that ALL the polls would be wrong or the people who deal with politics ALL the time (the pundits).
I too believe that IF McCain were to win, it would be HIGHLY subject.
I think Donald Duck will win in a last minute write-in campaign by all those Mickey Mouses the Republicans are claiming ACORN registered to vote.
If the anthropomorphic rodent vote fails to turn out, however, I'd say Obama wins, 311 to 200, 51% to 46%.
My EV count doesn't include Florida, as that depends on how many voters are disenfranchised, which the polls don't reflect, except perhaps IBD/TIPP.
dholy: Of or relating to the Republican 1996 presidential nominee.
Err...That should be 284 to 227, rather
From the trenches...
Final scores:
Obama 364, McCain 174 (Kerry + IA, NM, VA, CO, NV, OH, FL, NC and surprise of the night IN. Pickups listed in order of winning margin)
Senate: 59 Dem, 40 GOP, 1 run-off where the devil will indeed come down to Georgia (and later collect Chambliss' soul in exchange for a second term)
House: 265 Dem, 170 GOP (Dems lose only TX 22 and PA 11. Upset of the night = MD 1)
WV = acchm; as in, McCain can try all he wants to chase Obama but he kint 'acchm...
(OK, that was bad)
For what its worth, I say Obama should win
the Kerry Sates plus
NM, CO, NV
FL, GA, VA, NC
IA, OH
Contested States held by McCain will include ND, MT, IN and MO (barely)
My 2-cent theory is that polls will tend to underestimate Obama turn-out in the South but be more accurate in the midwest. Hence I'm optimistic about NC and GA and pessimistic about IN and MO.
I believe this makes 348 EV for Obama with the balance for McCain.
Not just at the end - many times in the middle you can see efforts by pollsters (esp. tracking) to converge to somewhere between Rasmussen and Gallop. Many time they will be going against the trend too at that point ...
BTW, Avg of Ras and Gallop is a good rule of the thumb as to where the polls are on any day ...
My prediction: Obama 341, McCain 197. Obama teaches GW Bush what a mandate really looks like, and takes all of the key states Nate has been discussing (VA, PA, OH, CO, NV), plus FL and ND. He loses NC, IN and MO, plus all the usual red-state suspects. I figure this scenario +/- 5 EV (could lose FL and take NC and MO, and ND isn't essential to the scenario) is about a 50% chance.
Senate: Franken gets carried on Obama's coattails to make it Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Independents 2. No surprises in GA, KY, or MS (or AK for that matter).
Other predictions in descending order of probability:
My "Obama landslide" scenario: Obama 381, McCain 157: Obama flips NC, IN, MO and MT in addition to my original scenario. Senate: no additional pickups for the dems. This scenario is still plausible even with pink Indiana and Montana.
My "McCain makes it close" scenario: Obama 273 or 278, McCain 265 or 260. Obama takes PA, CO, NM and possibly NV. McCain takes OH, VA, FL, NC and all the pink states. Franken loses.
My "pundit paradigm shift" scenario: Obama takes GA and AZ in addition to the landslide to end up at 406. McCain at 132. His coattails flip the GA senate race to give the democrats 58+2 seats to Republicans 40.
All of Nate's McCain win scenarios fall below this point in probability.
wv: syclize - you spin me right round baby right round...
wv after screen refresh: surions - an elementery particle of physics only found in civil courtrooms.
RIP Madelyn Dunham. You're part of a legend now, and you've given the world a great gift.
OMG! The only way this could have been more of a storybook ending is if she died as BHO was being sworn in.
To all the 538 guys:
Thank you Thank you You have been my saving grace and my sanity for the past few months. You all are terrific.
Not to be concern troll, but in all honesty, is anyone concerned that the party ID weighting seems to be unrealistic in a lot of these national polls. It's +10 in the latest NBC, Gallup, and Pew polls and the margins are Obama + 8, 11, and 6 respectively. If the real party ID split was only +5 or +6 (which may still be a little optimistic given that it was only +3 in the midterm elections), those leads don't look as solid. Any thoughts?
it's only Gallup at 11 points, ant wait to see if everybidy else gets it wrong in the lower side.
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