Montana: Gallatin, where Bozeman is, has 0% reporting. That county should favor McCain. McCain appears to be narrowly holding Yellowstone, where Billings is. But Montana is ultratight and will go late.
Missouri: Obama trails by roughly 12,500 votes with 96% in. 88% is reporting in Jackson (heavy Democratic) and St. Louis County is not all in, with Obama leading it by 17 points and 93% reporting. Obama may pull this out, but it'll be exceptionally close.
North Carolina: Obama will probably hold on here. The North Carolina Board of Elections site has Obama up 11,000 or so with 100 of 100 counties reporting. But the nets haven't called it. This is probably the best bet of the four -- the Tarheel State going blue for Barack Obama.
Indiana: The outstanding vote is in Lake, Jasper and Allen. Jasper is more pronounced McCain right now, at 59-40. But the county is very small, and 72% precincts reporting. Allen is narrowly McCain, and not anywhere close enough to flip the roughly 23,000 votes by which Obama leads. Lake, a hugely Democratic county, still has a few precincts out.
We always had a good feeling about Indiana when we saw it in our travels. This was a state where Obama had the ground game all to himself. With us predicting a slight win for McCain in the state, but no ground game taken into effect, and with a late minute canvassing push from FiveThirtyEight in Gary, Indiana looks like it'll go Obama.
Canvassers in Gary, today:
150 comments
First?
what a night!
It's getting exciting...I can't sleep yet!!!
Freakin' Lake County. Again!
Obama winning the presidency is GREAT NEWS!!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!!
But in all seriousness- what a wonderful night. I love you all!!! Let us all put the same energy and anticipation into repairing our country and helping Obama do so that we put into this race. I feel like I've just woke up from a long, dark, pessimistic dream. Inauguration cannot come soon enough.
I'm still holding out hope for Missouri. Come on Jackson and St. Louis counties....
Nate and Sean,
You made a home for all of us. Thank you.
Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.
The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.
No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.
It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.
Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.
I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .
While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.
Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.
Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.
With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.
He must maintain his popularity.
So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.
I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.
Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.
I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.
I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.
A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.
You wind up idealizing such politicians.
It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.
I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!
She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).
This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.
Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.
Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.
Thank you and good night to one and all!
Wow I butchered that comment- it's late and I didn't proofread. :)
Any news on those last 4 states?
538's canvassing won Indiana for Obama! ;)
Holy smokes, is that the *same* PeteKent as in other threads?
Dear Nate,
Thank you for holding my hand these last few weeks with your charts, maps and beautiful words. If you ever find yourself in Dayton OH, I owe you an ice cream cone and a Dayton Dragons game.
Peace, Jeni
Coleman ahead by only a thousand with 85% in.
RECOUNT???
Canvassing the shit out of Durham County is what won NC!! Tears of joy tonight.
The Real Pete Kent does not use typekey- remember that folks.
Posted this on the other thread just as this one went live:
Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen from the grave to screw up yet another election - Missouri.
Per the Sec of State's website, McCain currently leads Obama by a little over 17,000 votes. [And Jackson/St. Louis counties will cut well in to that margin.]
Ralph Nader currently has a little over 17,000 votes in Missouri.
This is an awesome day.
Thanks, Nate. You guys were almost right on.
I will visit and contribute to this site even in off years. It's that valuable.
Please have an update on the Neb 1 and 2nd districts. I'm here in Lincoln, Nebraska and I still don't have any decisive information on them!
At least I'm glad to be in a state that may give Obama one electoral vote!
Tubes Stevens is ahead with 30-odd percent. WTF?!?
Please tell me this criminal won't be reelected? Begich was pilling away in the state polls.
Weird results from San Francisco: with 98% of the votes counted McCain got 13% but YES on Prop 8 got 23.5%.
Guys. I missed it.
WHAT WAS REAL JOE'S SECRET?
He said he'd say it today.
Is he really Karl Rove?
Reporting, not ahead. But he is in the lead.
Nate, you are da man! Seriously, your predictions were spot on.
Anyway, I also wanted to know what RealJoe's surprise was.
Thank you America!
Anyone have information on the claim going around that early voting for Fulton and Gwinnett counties is not yet reported for Georgia? (I've read claims of 600k-2M votes still out there...)
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html, and various comments on Kos tonight...
Longtime lurker, props to Nate, etc., etc.
Just a thought on Montana. I'm in Bozeman, home to MSU and the youngest average age in the state. Far be it from me to correct Sean, but anecdotally, well, I saw a fair few young folk at the polls today, and the GOTV was strong. When Gallatin County reports, it could well be enough to turn the state blue and keep it that way. Here's Hoping.
Indiana is the most gratifying result for me personally.
Really hope Gary gets something out of this election cycle -- they've earned some pork.
Not so sure if its been mentioned yet, Nate, but you got a mention on today's XKCD comic (check the alt-text):
http://www.xkcd.com/
Given your accuracy so far, it's not a bad idea. KF
Davereid: according to unofficial results on the NE state website, NE-2 goes to Obama by 300-odd votes.
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
All information about Prop 8?
PeteKent: "I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber."
Here's the thing: If I were to start talking absolute nonsense that has been proven to be false, I wouldn't expect people to listen to me and engage in serious debate. If I wanted to be taken seriously I would consider what I was saying and check it against reality. Your fatal flaw, PeteKent, is that you overestimate your own intelligence. You start with the presumption that you are speaking the absolute truth, and when people scoff at your ridiculous comments, you say they are anti-free speech.
You're free to say what you want, and if you are an imbecile, we are free to make fun of you.
Hmm, With St. Louis county at 93% and Jackson county at 98% counted, and Obama down by about 17,000 votes, he really could still pull out MO. If the ratios hold, he can make up like 20,000 in St. Louis county and about 3,000 in Jackson. Knock off a couple thousand to compensate for outstanding vote in the rural counties and he carries MO by about 4,000 votes. Recount.
NC has 100% reported in with Obama up by about 12,000 votes. Recount.
IN still has those last few precincts to count, as Nate reported. No real change there.
McCain's pulling away in MT now, up by 9,000 with 75% reported.
Edit: my above comment should read "Any information about Prop 8?"
Ted Stevens is leading so far, but the Senate has vowed to expel him if he wins reelction. Sarah Palin may yet appoint herself to the Senate.
Ah well...Alaska and Hawaii aren't being called either... we have left coverage and entered history debates.
I emailed MSNBC that link for the Georgia early voting story, so hopefully they'll mention or look into it a bit themselves.
I am positive Indiana and North Carolina are going for Obama--and I haven't the slightest with how little left there is to report in as to why they have not been called.
Missouri is going to be close as hell. Florida 2000 close (stolen or not!). I think Obama can VERY narrowly beat out McCain, but a win for old johnny wouldn't suprise me either.
Montana I don't know which a fuck to give a fuck a way to fuck a go.
Ahhh, delirum sets in for me! 5 hours of sleep in the past 30 or so hours!
Hennepin and St. Louis are coming in for Franken huge! He's down less than one thousand votes with 11% left!
So likely total 354-174? Possibly as high as 365-163?
Not bad in an election where the closet racists and the hordes of PUMA's were going to flip this thing.
I want Obama to crush, but for stupid and small personal reasons, I wouldn't mind seeing Missouri go McCain. I am utterly bored with them calling themselves the bellwether state. Go ahead, vote McCain, and watch history leave you behind, Missouri -- this year, anyway.
"I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!"
That would scare me if you even had one correct prediction.
wv - trolyp AKA Sarah "I am a braindead parrot" Palin.
Thanks, zenu. Found a few more references while digging myself...
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/04/georgia_presidential_voting.html
And there's a diary running on Kos now collecting links and discussion:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/5/12649/6674/253/653696
I voted absentee in North Carolina. I really hope it finally goes blue after being so reliably red in national elections for so long!!!
By the way, it's TAR HEEL. Two words.
Just a nit-picky thing:
It's Tar Heel state. Two words. :)
In sincerity, I didn't think it would be so close in my home state, and an automatic recount is in the offing, but it looks good that BHO will pick up our 15 EVs. The last counties to come in were Chatham -- heavily white, middle-class, green-collar jobs in the NE corner, primarily Graingers, Latinos, and blacks in the rest of the county; Buncombe County, home to Asheville, or "the Austin of the Appalachians;" and Warren county, primarily black. If Cumberland county went blue -- home to Fayetteville and Fort Bragg -- so to does the rest of the state, even narrowly.
You guys have an amazing site here. Please keep it home-spun, grass-rooty, and numbers-heavy. Spot on.
wv: reouzama. The rheumatism McC suffers from after a defeat by Obama.
As a former Bozeman resident, I have to echo the earlier comment questioning this as McCain territory. Bozeman itself is very liberal and the county as a whole has become more and more liberal with an influx of west coast folks over the past decade.
John Tester beat Conrad Burns solidly in Gallatin despite the incredible amount of pork that Burns gave to MSU.
I think the floor is 364 for Obama, david...
current 338+IN(11)+NC(15)=364.
Hopefully some more!
I'm putting the ceiling for Obama at 379 (all above plus MO, MT, and NE-2)
Regarding Georgia and the "missing votes": Both GA and NC have 15 EV, hence similar populations. NC has over 4 million votes tallied. GA at "98% precincts reporting" crept over 3.5 million just now. Hence something must be amiss---about 500K--600K votes as rumored.
Is there a disparity in registered voters between those states?
Also breathtaking: FL almost 8 million votes tallied. In the 2000 election, just eight years ago, the total was 6 million.
Thanks for commenting on these ongoing contests. CNN/MSNBC won't talk about them!
Echoing Bill in MT above, I would expect Gallatin County to lean Obama. I say this as someone from Bozeman, who worked on the Obama campaign there, and it's generally considered one of the most liberal counties in the state - even when the rest of the state has been "red" in past years, Gallatin county has been "blue" or close. What are you basing that evaluation of Gallatin being good for McCain, Sean? I was very surprised and taken aback! Yikes!
Apparently, according to NPR, the reason it has not been called here in NC is because of a lack of confirmation from a couple of precincts in Stanly County. Hopefully it's not a matter of actual remaining votes to come in: according to the voter statistics on the Board of Elections website, Stanly County looks like probable McCain land. I'm hopeful that NC is blue: 100 of 100 counties reported completely in, Obama by 11,000. Closest state of election?
Bush supporters' obsession was terrorists. Obama supporters' obsession is racists. Which is better?
Currently as of 1:59am ET at 52.3% according to CNN.
56,141,536
/
(56,141,536 + 51,168,441)
* 100
=
52.3 %
I say Franken takes it.
bobnsj said...
Weird results from San Francisco: with 98% of the votes counted McCain got 13% but YES on Prop 8 got 23.5%.
Unfortunately, it's not weird; Obama voters don't wholly exclude bigots of other stripes. :| Unless you mean to say it's weird because it's SF?
What the fuck happened with Georgia?!!? It's ouside the MOE (which I arbitrarily assume at +/-5%, hah). I hope Nate's going to go through which states were polled more accurately, and which pollsters did well this year.
FiveThirtyEight for life!!!!!!!
Franken down 3000 votes, ridiculously close but the remaining precints are pretty much in Colemans favour...we'll see
wv: now hola!!!
"TAR HEEL"
So what is a tar heel?
Also, why hoosier? WTF is a hoosier?
To the Pete Kent of the long post above (I never know who the "real" petekent is). Very eloquent, but...really there are some of us whities who just think this is the right guy. Also, does anyone ever think that maybe it's nice to have a leader who is inspirational without being pandering or unreal?
Have to agree about Palin. Pandora's out of her box, more's the pity.
Eventually people will figure out that his mother somehow, at 18, in 1961, realized her son would be President of the United States one day, and so, rushed back to the U.S. from Kenya shortly after his birth, in order to somehow fake a U.S. birth certificate. Or that he is some covert plant from God only knows where, who somehow wormed his way past numerous laws, politicians, Universities and finally, "BWAHAHAHahahahaha", has assumed control and will now (rubbing hands together) do his evil will on us all.
I can only hope.
"Obama winning the presidency is GREAT NEWS!!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!!"
somehow i knew that one was coming.
puetzk, I sent another email out to those as well.
What all stations are still having live news? I've been watching msnbc online all night and they just switched over to another anchor.
Not buying the Georgia Early Vote story; at least not 700k+ votes worth. The current tally reported in GA is 2.48 M total votes with 98% reporting. The tally in 2004 was 2.28 M. Georgia will probably get to 2.6 M total votes, but no way it gets to 3.1 Million, even without vote suppression.
(Is GA the state where the SoS or whatever said that database mismatches were going to be grounds for eliminating voters => massive voter disenfranchisement? Or was it some other state?)
AJC says votes yet to be counted (600k)
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/04/georgia_presidential_voting.html
Pretty screwy IMO. Pretty bad reporting by AJC to treat it so matter of fact. This is likely to be heavy AA vote.
Franken looks like he'll pull out MINN with most votes still out from Dem counties going his way heavily (Hennepin + St Louis counties)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that some 600,000 votes from GA are yet to be counted. It's enough to through the Senate race to a run-off, though I doubt Obama wins.
Nate, I think I can finally get what I wanted all along: A Win Percentage for McCain below 1%. I think you can safely set it to 0% now. Or 0.0001% to allow for the possibility of a legal challenge.
The margin in MO is just over 500 votes! Still some votes to be counted.
Ugh. Too late. That was supposed to be will realize his mother *did not* somehow, etc. etc.
Barr got 25K votes in NC!
And it looks like that will be enough to turn the tarheel state BLUE!
as Nelson Muntz says...
HA HA!
MO now less than 600 vote difference according to CNN website, I think
Green said...
I say Franken takes it.
Hope so. I always said I'd sacrifice a a 60-seat majority if Franken could take back Wellstone's seat. That race was one giant mess from the beginning.
In Missouri, provisional ballots (and I imagine that there are lots of them, especially in St. Louis County) could put Obama over the edge, if they're counted. I think there's a good chance that many will be. Robin Carnahan is all over it.
Can we talk about how Ted Stevens is AHEAD??
I'm impressed not only by Nate, Sean, and crew, but by everyone that contributed to the lively and engaging discussion here. All of us reflect the spirit and potential of this country. And if you think that sounds sappy ...
THEN YOU CAN ALL BITE ME!
What a fan-f***in'-tastic election cycle, folks! You're all my heroes! Good night.
According to the NE SoS,
Obama won the 2nd CD!
114212 to 113853
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
Google Elections now says Indiana has 100% of precincts reporting, and Obama has won it. Why isn't anyone 'calling' it if it's at 100%???
But HOLY COW - after all these years, I live in a blue state now! That's something I didn't expect to see.
And with a vote that close, I finally feel like MY vote MATTERED.
It's amazing; my conservative friends are all saying "yeah, let's see how you feel when tax time comes around." Somehow that seems so -small-. We have been given the opportunity to reshape the paradigm of a nation... and you're worried that your taxes may be too high.
Somehow, I find myself wanting to quote John Adams in 1776...
"Can we talk about how Ted Stevens is AHEAD??"
This may seem simpleminded or snarky but you can look at it two ways.
1. These are the people Palin tricked into voting for her
2. Alaskans love the pork!
Win or lose he is likely to get expelled.
woah! cnn updates Obama within 1000 or so in Missouri.
MSNBC just called Indiana for Obama
Thanks for the link Dr. Matt, I've been dying to find someplace that actually had voting results split by district. It's been agonizing looking at that big McCain lead in Sarpy county and wondering how much of it fell in 2nd district.
It looks like those numbers account for all precincts, although they're not official yet; I imagine they're going to be counting very, very carefully. Still, pretty cool stuff :)
Hey thanx for this awesome site... it has been an absolute pleasure to be a politics junkie with you guys.
In terms of the missing votes in Georgia? Anyone have any idea whats going to happen with that?
And will there be actual recounts for IN and MO because the margins are so close?? MT I guess will go for McCain. And NC, is the margin large enough to be seen as Obama's? And I saw the vote counts in the pdf file, Obama did win the 2nd CD for NE, by a small amount. Will that be a recount as well???
And most importantly
What was REAL JOE's Surprise??
I feel proud.
McCain will win MO and MT. NC remains a tossup. Give it to McCain, the sop for Liddy Dole.
Obama wins IN
MSNBC called Indiana for Obama, so he is up to 349. Nothing on the 1 Omaho EV.
Now, I will be happy if someone can tell me what hoosier is supposed to be. Yes, I know Indianans(*ducks) call themselves that, but why?
Wow, Obama behind by 549 in MO!
2% of Jackson county still coming...
I suspect IN, MO, and NC will all have recounts.
But...what about NE-2? What I'm seeing shows that Obama won Douglas County, which makes up the vast majority of the district. Sarpy went McCain by about 13% and a little chunk of it is in NE-2. What's the final call on this? Once I see this result, and learn the fate of Prop 8 in CA, maybe I'll be able to sleep.
Maybe.
The MAGNATIC PULL of the secretary of state not counting the early votes in Georgia may keep Obama below the 50% mark in that state.
Chamblis has won. Coleman will win. Smith will lose.
Stevens will win.
Will they bother with the expense of recounts for a decided national race?
Minnesota Senate is a sure recount.
Rasmussen is going to nail the popular vote.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
Incredibly cynical voter, and Obama found a way to make me believe.
I have NEVER been so passionate about an election as this one.
I have NEVER wept during an election, until this one.
My question is, how can we, as his supporters, help? How can we help accomplish his goals? How can we help make this country truly great again????
I will remember this election for a very, VERY long time.
Maybe we truly can.
-Ecstatic in Oregon-
Looks like Barr played spoiler in NC. Ha.
I think I'll always look back on Cheney's last minute endorsement of McCain with fond memories.
"Will they bother with the expense of recounts for a decided national race?"
*shrug
It will depend if the state has laws that trigger mandatory recounts.
Will there have to be recounts, or will those states be accepted as is? Do they count the mail in absentee ballots from military and provisional as well?
And no surprise from Real Joe?
MO is down to Jackson Cty vs. Christian and Dunklin counties. McCain by 390 votes right now.
fuuuuck now 400 in MO
Chambliss is at 50% with 98% reporting. All he needs is to drop one more point for the runoff.
Plus, there's that issue about the votes not being counted or w/e.
Coleman and Franken are virtually tied.
Why would there be recounts? Obama wins the presidency with or without.
According to http://www.11alive.com/news/politics_govt/elections/decision_2008/story.aspx?storyid=123175&catid=228, the Fulton county early votes for Georgia should be up soon. No new word on Gwinnett.
Indiana is officially called for Obama!!
The NPR Map
"And no surprise from Real Joe?"
Did he even make an appearance?
Maybe I'm revealing my geekiness, but am I the only one who, despite an overwhelming happiness and fulfillment, has a spot of preliminary emptiness?
For the past few months, stopping by this site (and the many others) has been a ritual. It was what I did when the boss wasn't looking. It was what I did when there was nothing good on TV. I checked the site every morning as I poured my first cup of coffee, and each night before I called it time to hit the hay.
I went to the BO campaign site, and there was a sense of nostalgia when I saw the "Welcome Hillary Supporters" link and the "Get Involved" link. Now, as happy as I am that "my guy" is elected, I feel a little deflated.
My wife suggested that I turn my energy toward a pet cause to prevent the big drop. But I can't help but feel like it won't be the same. This campaign literally brought together people from every corner of the country in a way that getting the potholes in my area fixed could ever.
I would like to say that we'll stay "in touch" with 538, but I still sorta feel like it's Graduation Day, and we're all standing on the Great Lawn, as people disappear to start their new lives. And in this moment, I miss you guys, and this shared experience.
Yeah, I'm a geek.
Kirmonmouth,
I'm in a similar position. I'm hoping the fact that I donated money to a major party candidate for the first time, along with a huge emotional investment and a fair bit of time will translate into a higher standard of accountability. Especially if he intends on an 8 year presidency.
I'm just so excited that "sacrifice" and "service" were reintroduced as laudable aspirations.
Wonder if Giuliani has figured out what Community Organizers do yet...
BTW, if Obama takes MO, and his lead holds up in IN and NC, he gets the magic number for a landslide. 338+15+11+11=375.
What the hell...? How is Stevens winning Alaska?
This has to be a fluke, or all the pro-felon precincts are coming in first.
Hey, what about Nebraska 2? Currently, it lists the 2nd district as 100% reporting for all rpecincts and Obama has a lead of 359 votes. I think they may still wait for absentee ballots, but I don't know how many of those there might be. See the numbers for the Nebraska districts here:
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoral.htm
This is a BIG DEAL guys. This will be the first time that any state will split its electoral votes between two candidates. Will this serve as an example to other states? Yes we can... reform the electoral college system. Yes, it works. Just look at Nebraska! It's not about that one electoral vote; it's about the possibility of a new system.
-400 votes in Missouri
Franken still 3000 votes away
PeteKent has lost
I knew that it would be this year that my North Carolina turned Blue.
We are blue for Obama
We are blue for Hagan
We are blue for Purdue
I for one have tears of joy in my eyes knowing that finally we have rejected the anti-intellectualism and intolerance that the rethuglicans have forced upon us during their death-grip on this nation for the last eight years. We are truely entering a new progressive era, and words can't describe how proud I am of NC helping lead the way
God bless you all and god bless President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama jr.
Charlie said...
fuuuuck now 400 in MO
And let this be a reminder to ANYONE who sits an election out because they think their one vote wouldn't make a difference. It doesn't get much closer than this!
colincb: Each state result counts separately. In order for the state to set its slate of electors it has to be able to certify the results in that particular state. So even though the electors make no difference to the final result of who gets to the White House, they have to have the recount to know who they're supposed to vote for.
If Obama really won NE2, that's amazing.
Obama has to win Missouri!!!! I am from southwest Missouri and we worked so hard to keep our defeat margin down that i hope St. Louis county can pull us through the finish line. God i am so drunk right now and this is such a great night. God bless America!!
The Alaska SoS's office has more current numbers than I'm seeing on the various aggregating sites:
Begich 46.60% (70,338)
Stevens 47.97% (72,415)
234/438 precincts reporting (53.4%)
CNN's exit polls would give it to Begich, but I don't know if those have been corrected. I suspect we're just not seeing a bunch of Anchorage reporting yet.
398 votes...
Does MO have a mandatory recount? Because there might be just enough postmarked absentee ballots out there as well.
KirkMonmouth,
I'm in the same boat. I came here from the USSR and have a very healthy distrust of authority. But right now, I have never believed more in America, never felt this proud to live here. My local supermarket was out of champagne. I saw fireworks in the night sky tonight. I saw pictures of people crying in disbelief. Overwhelming.
(Alaska Secretary of State's results.)
Dunklin County looks like it will add to the McCain margin. McCain by 900...
Fastest Missouri results page for anyone interested: http://media.myfoxstl.com/media/leader/race1301.html
It's pretty sickening that Stevens is even close. Alaskan dumbfucks.
Hells Bells, NE (per the NPR map) show NE as 57/41. Holy wow. I bet you we've never been so close to blue.
SD is 54/44!! My God, I don't think people realize how incredible that is. I mean, that's a seriously remarkable accomplishment for a democratic candidate to come THAT close to the republican. I mean, insane. Wow.
definitely fireworks here... I live around the corner from the main Obama HQ in town and holy fucking shit! My cats are in full 4th of July freakout mode.
forget Missouri, only 500 votes differnce right now but it's gone since the remaining % are in republican precints
Franken's margin is widening although the precints are maonly democrat
Blogger John McCain is my Love Child! said...
398 votes...
Does MO have a mandatory recount? Because there might be just enough postmarked absentee ballots out there as well.
recount if loser asks and margin is less than 1%
It looks like they're just now getting to the Gwinnett Co. absentee ballots, too:
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/gwinnett/stories/2008/11/04/gwinnett_vote_transfer.html
Bozo: that's not in the constitution. There may be state statutes for an auto recount, but I believe Missouri doesn't have one and I'm not sure why any state would have one for that matter.
CNN has Jackson County, a Democratic stronghold, in Missouri as 100% reported and Obama is still behind ~400. The two counties still not completely reported are all strongly for McCain. Judging from their current breakdowns, I think Obama will be losing by 3-4 thousand votes...
I voted in Jackson Co., MO at 6:00 a.m. and have been biting my nails all day. I'm pretty sure we're going blue by a hair.
Some of the precincts here had their roll books swapped around and delayed voting by a couple hours this morning, and I think provisional ballots were handed out at at least one of those locations.
Regarding Nebraska 2:
The unofficial results pdf at
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
is currently showing only partial results as of 11:26 pm.
The vote count should definitely be higher for the final result...
A more recent number from the AP (1:35 AM) is that McCain leads by more than 4,500 votes:
http://www.nebraska.tv/Global/story.asp?S=9295532
Franken just pulled to within a hundred votes with 94% of precincts reporting.
Franken is 1,000 votes behind with a favorable environment.
"There may be state statutes for an auto recount, but I believe Missouri doesn't have one and I'm not sure why any state would have one for that matter."
Lots of good reasons. Without it, in a race that is close you get nothing but problems from both side. One wants it, the other doesn't.
By requiring that races within a certain margin get recounted, you shut them up somewhat. It ensures a fair and accurate accounting.
If a race is won by 20%, who cares is 500 votes were miscounted. In a close race, it matters.
NC is going BLUE BLUE BLUE!
Y'all cannot imagine how annoying it's been to be a progressive in this very PURPLE state, working hard for the last 8 years but dismissed derisively as "those people in Red States" as if we're one and all Bible-thumping rednecks with cardboard cutouts of Bush in our living rooms.
The Red States will still have that image for some (very unfair to the Blue voters in each and every one), but from what I'm seeing, NC will now be restored to a BLUE STATE!!
there are still 2 precincts in St. Louis County that haven't reported. 9 left in Christian County (and you can guess by the name where most of those votes are going).
It's not only Stevens in Alaska--Don Young, the worst congressman in the House, is leading Ethan Berkowitz by 6%---maybe unsurmountable given the number of remaining votes.
Christ on a crutch we have some stupid people in this state....
Chambliss is hovering at 50.3% with 98% reporting.
On August 15 if someone told you that VA, NC and possibly MO were going to be blue, what would be your reaction?
The apparent speed that these states became in play seems phenomenal. Chalk it up to a professional, excited ground game.
I think the lack of an on the ground presence for McCryptKeeper will be one of the two reasons history lists for its failure. The second will be Palin and her darling KKK rallies.
rumored 4000 provisional ballots in St Louis city and county.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/political-fix/political-fix/2008/11/missouri-a-squeaker-obama-may-have-a-razor-thin-edge/
There are a lot of votes outstanding in GA because they have not counted early votes in metro Atlanta. Could be up to 600k votes.
for all of you looking for Real Joe's surprise, I guess it was that THERE WASN'T ONE
Yeah, McCain leads by about 400 votes now and conservative Christian County had 6500 votes more than Obama-leaning St. Louis County. Don't know much about the provisional ballots, though.
I'm sitting at my desk in Greene County, MO. Looks like us college kids here had *some* impact. Greene County is the home of Roy Blunt just to give you some perspective.
travis: I have no idea where that AP blurb is getting those numbers. The final "100% precincts reporting" numbers showing up everywhere else give Douglas county to Obama and Sarpy to McCain, with a net lead for McCain of 4,179 if you add the two counties' results together. Since not all of Sarpy is part of 2nd district this would give us a ceiling for McCain of +4,179... so how they come up with +4,500 or more is beyond me.
I'm pretty sure the .pdf that gives Obama +359 was posted after the final results for McCain-leaning Sarpy county, and the final postings for Douglas gave Obama a slightly wider lead than the ones they'd had up for most of the night, so barring recount shenanigans I think we can be pretty confident about Nebraska's 2nd turning blue. Yay.
Whoops. Meant Christian County had 6500 *more* ballots to tally at this point than St. Louis County. (Drinking and crunching numbers here) But the MO SOS site updated again and McCain pulled ahead by 2,600 votes with 0.03% of precincts yet to report in. A majority of which are in... yep, Christian County. Looks like McCain is going to squeak out a win in Missouri. Sort of sucks to see MO get it wrong considering that whole bellwether thing is pretty much all we had going for us in terms of coverage on the cable networks. :P
Sort of disappointed in my state to be honest. Not necessarily surprised, though.
I think the Real Joe surprise is that so many people were actually expecting one.
They're still counting up all the GA early/absentee votes, supposedly. I hope they don't stop until they're all counted.
Sooooooo close.
I was staging location director for the Obama campaign in Western Greene County.
Anyone know anything about provisionals? They could be relevant.
Cameron:
I don't know where you would find hard numbers on provisional ballots, but looking over the MO law for provisional ballots it would make sense for it to take a while to count them.
The SOS site has Obama 5,000 behind McCain with 99.9% reporting (92.9% reporting from Christian County, 100% from St. Louis County). I have a feeling that most of the provisional ballots would be coming from new voters, or voters who have favored Obama. I take back what I said earlier. I can't guess who's getting these 11 electoral votes. Maybe MO can finally escape Jesusland.
"Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen from the grave to screw up yet another election - Missouri."
This is just silly, but if you're really going to grumble about third-party candidates, keep in mind that Barr helped flip Indiana in the Democratic candidate's favor. The two states have an equal number of electoral votes.
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水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
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