The rates of challenged ballots keep on rising, with a gap opening up between the Coleman and the Franken campaigns:
The reward for his hard work? Coleman now leads by 238 votes -- a larger margin than when he started the recount -- according to the Minnesota Secretary of State. As before, many caveats apply when evaluating these results before challenges are resolved; not all challenges are created equal.
11.25.2008
Mini-Sota Update, Day 6
@ 9:34 PM
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How is the lead of 238 votes calculated by the Minnesota SO website?
It'll be interesting to see whether his strategy is to get the largest lead possible going into the challenge phase, or to try and get the margin to near where it was pre-recount. Since this phase is basically all just spin at this point it wouldn't surprise me if it were the latter, so he could claim "See, our elections are really good here... there's been virtually no change to the margin since the recount began." If so, maybe his challenges will slow down very slightly tomorrow.
"Mini"-sota? Nate, that was too much, even for a bunch of political junkies.
:-)
Good to see Franken's challenge rate has dropped off, since they're mostly silly anyway. Adjusting for the discrepancy in total challenges (C-1836, F-1758), Coleman has a 160-vote lead. Hard to see how Franken will make that up on the challenges (there may be 5000+ ballots in the challenge round), but not impossible.
It's not surprising that Coleman has increased his lead at this stage, because, as Nate pointed out in his first post on this subject, most of the incorrectly marked ballots will be made by poorer voters who are more likely to have intended to vote for Franken. So more of the challenged votes should end up going for Franken.
Your regression from a few days ago, when you came up with Franken +27, I've been trying to replicate it and I've been having some trouble. Could you post the code you used to generate your data/results? I was able to get the same descriptive stats. Thanks.
@William Land:
Take the current Coleman # (978,751) and subtract that from the Nov 4 # (980,121) and get 1370. Do the same for Franken and get 1393. That gives you Al losing more votes in the recount than Nohm by 23 votes. Add that to the pre-recount delta of 215.
238.
~Latte
wv - irtesti - extremely irritated. I am getting irtesti at the accelerating challenges by Coleman observers.
Trouble getting to +27? No trouble for Nate, he pulled it straight of his ass!
It just seems to me very doubtful that anything more than a small fraction of challenges will be accepted. By definition, a challenge is a disagreement with the ruling of the elections judge. I assume these judges aren't morons and are at least making an attempt at non-partisanship (and I see no reason to believe otherwise). I'd be blown away if more than 5% of challenges overall were upheld.
>William Land said...
> How is the lead of 238 votes >calculated by the Minnesota SO >website?
You have to take the totals from everything (incl. absentee) from the original count, which is not on the SoS site Nate linked to, then subtract out the difference between ballots cast on Nov 4 and the recounted ballots that have not been challenged, which you can get from the SoS site. I'm sure there's an easier way to put it... anyone?
Depending on the nature of the challenges- Franken would only need to win 5 percent more than Coleman to win or tie. If the challenges keeps going on, the difference may even be less than 5 percent. Since my original guess was 5 percent for 3000 with 150 vote difference.
Good news for Franken:
Around 6,400 rejected absentee ballots may be counted tomorrow.
According to the Franken campaign, as of this afternoon they would be down only 84 votes if all challenges are rejected.
Link
I think it's clear at this point that the Franken count- down 84 excluding challenges- is by far the most reliable. It extrapolates to about down 50 when all these votes are recounted. So it's a big deal whether some more missing votes are found, some absentees counted, etc. There's no point in following the running count anymore, because it's swamped by the enormous rate of bogus challenges.
First
If Franken is right, then it's all down to the absentee ballots. If they are counted, then he has a chance to make up the 80-90 vote deficit. If not, then he's going to wind up short -- by his own count.
anyone know how a decision might play out if the rejected ballots would not allowed in?
in court?
tomorrow will we know anything or is the MN board going to take weeks to decide?
on a different note-did the t-shirt girl who wants to take showers for two just turn into twins?
was this by popular demand? or has the idea of a porn site taking flight if nate and his 27 win for franken might not come to fruition?
Mike
Start your own damn projection site, if you think you can do it better.
We all pinkie swear we'll read it too, honest injun. Right guys?
According to the Washington Times (which may be no better than Drudge, but WTF), most of Franken's challenges arise from finding small marks on the ballots. Franken contends these marks are "distinguishing." Most of them appear to be artifacts of getting the pens to work. So says the Moonie paper.
If this is the case, Coleman will win handily.
The Moonie Times are the same people who recently claimed that Obama's team had made a decision to shelve repealing DADT. The gay press reported today that in their investigation (ie, asking the Obama campaign) this turned out to be false. Beware the Moonies.
@STepper- Most of the challenges on both sides are worthless. Apparently the election judge count, ignoring challenges, had C up by 84 with some 77% of the recount done. Extrapolating the rate of F improvement (outside a head start of about 30 from Eagle machines) gives a C win, but only by about 55.That's probably not what would be called winning 'handily'. It could perhaps be altered by counting other vote piles, if the courts say so.
For how many days now has the Franken campaign been peddling the "C up by only double-digits" line? Sure...
So a difference in challenge rate of about 4 per 10000 votes cast, with about 3.6 million votes has a potential for turning up to 1440 votes to Franken if all the challenges are denied. If 90% of the challenges are denied, that adds 1296, less the net valid challenges. Worst case for Franken, they all go to Coleman, so that's 144 fewer in the net, or 1152, and Franken wins by 916 or so. If only 80% are denied and the rest go to Coleman that's a swing to Franken of 864 and he wins by 630. If only 60% are denied and the rest go to Coleman, Franken wins by 54.
zoadjyar: an ancient Babylonian astrologer.
Franken's numbers are actually closer to the truth than anything we can see in public because they see the challenges on both sides. If they were trying to lie, they would choose some number that says they are in the lead rather than close. But, hey, don't let common sense get in the way of your certainty. The reality is that they are making the point for Nate. Namely, about the composition of the challenges.
This "recount" has become a ridiculous fantasy. The only valid nhumbers wiull be the ones the State Board will produce after they reviewq the challenges. I lay all the silliness at the feet of the Coleman campaign.
Oh my--apologies for all the typos...
The Minnesota Independence Party is pain in the damn ass. The Minnesota republicans stay united and elect people like Pawlenty and Coleman, while the Dems splinter and vote for the Independence party. Ugh.
I kind of wish the State Board could issue a $100 fine for each frivolously challenged ballot.
sorry, Vinny, the Minnesota Independence Party may be a pain in the ass but they are a pain in the ass that is entitled to participate in the political process in a democracy. However much you might want to blame them if Franken loses, you would do better looking at why the Dems couldn't get more of the Obama voters to vote Franken.
I am against a fine for a challenged ballot of any kind.
I am also against a slow prosess that makes the entire country wait while some folks in MN get around to doing their job.
Nate, could we strip out some of the state polling so this site loads better on smartphones?
I didn't think anyone took the Wash Times seriously. I mean, it's good for a laugh, but not for actual information.
Virtually all of the challenges will be rejected. The election officials know what they're doing, while the challenges are politically-motivated. And in practice, the more overwhelmed the process of adjudicating on the challenges becomes, the smaller the proportion of agreed challenges is likely to be.
If the state was issuing numbers on the basis of the official count and excluding challenges, we would have a good idea of the position. As things stand, we have no idea. If Nate is right and the published count puts the adjudicating process under pressure, the State is making a rod for its own back. But I doubt if Nate is right. The officials must be confident that they can handle the adjudication process, otherwise they wouldn't have done it this way.
My instinct is that whichever campaign is making the most challenges is the one that is losing.
anthonyy-
Lets take that proposition to be true, if all the chalenges are added back for the other side, what is the total?
Hmmm,if true anthonyy, Franken loses. The dif in challenged ballot numbers is much smaller than dif in total votes.
The problem is not with either the Minnesota Independence Party or the Democrats. The problem is the voting system. In Australia we have a preferential voting system where each voter ranks the candidates from 1 to whatever the number of candidates is.
Votes are initially distributed on the basis of first preferences. If any candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote she is elected.
Otherwise the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and his votes are distributed to the remaining candidates on the basis of the next preference.
This process is repeated until one candidate has more than 50 per cent of the vote.
This system means that voters can vote for the candidate they most favor without wasting their vote.
Fred, is that true? They haven't recounted all the votes yet. If you add back all the challenges, you *may* get to a position that is so close that it means that Franken is gradually winning, even though he is still behind at this juncture, having started out 215 back. But we don't know because we don't have a breakdown of the challenges. Maybe I should have said whichever side is dependent on challenges to apparently improve its position is actually losing.
wombat you are right of course but I was thinking of what happens within the current system.
BTW, I established on another thread recently that Minnesota is looking at a form of proportional representation for some of their elections. In the US they call it "instant runoff" voting.
Challanges to votes, either during elections or durings counts should have frivolity fines, otherwise candidates and parties will continue to use them for reasons other than legitimately challanging voters. In New Hampshire, a few years ago, Republican challangers in Hanover (Dartmouth's town) challanged every single voter of student age, and lost EVERY SINGLE challange. All legal, and succesful. Not succesful in keeping out fraudulent votes, but succesful in extending voting lines to 4 hours long and supressing legitimate voters who were discouraged from waiting in the long lines.
Nate,
If you acknowledge that mid-recount "totals" are not meaningful in discerning who is likely to win the recount, why do you continue to report them?
You have described MN's system as flawed with respect to temporarily removing challenged ballots from the total. I would argue this is not so much a flaw in MN law as it is in media coverage. Media outlets, including FiveThirtyEight, continue to treat mid-recount "totals" as true and meaningful (or at least noteworthy, in your case). This is a problem of perspective that is created entirely by the media and is no fault of Minnesota's recount statutes. No one involved in the administrative recount is under the impression that the true victor of the recount can be determined before the canvassing board meets, and I believe it is the obligation of members of the press to educate the public in this matter. (Just as it is the obligation of the press to educate the public as to why election night returns are unofficial until local canvassing boards meet and that there is nothing unusual or suspicious about vote totals changing between election night and the canvass as errors are found and corrected - another obscure area of election administration that has been exploited by campaign spin doctors in this race.)
You have been doing a better job than most, of course. But since you acknowledge that there is little to be gleaned from mid-recount numbers, I question the wisdom in even reporting them.
KennyB,
You'll be happy to learn that MN statute requires an Election Day challenger to have personal knowledge of a voter's alleged ineligibility in order to challenge. No blanket challenges allowed.
just out of interest, I wonder what you think of the system for in person voting in the UK. You turn up, say who you are (no proof required), get crossed off the list of eligible voters held by the clerks in the polling station, and vote. That's it.
Secure system, huh?
The "perception war" being waged in the press especially by Coleman is only possible because MN foolishly deducts challenged ballots from the running total.
All they would have to do to cut down on the rate of frivolous challenges would be to give out the totals based on the elections officials tally, and then note the number of challenges.
Most of the challenges will NOT result in overturning the election judges so the ongoing recount totals would closely mirror the final result. You'd know within about 10 or 20 votes or so what the final numbers would be - i.e. only in a handful of marginal cases would the elections officials be overturned.
According to the Franken camp he'd down by around 85 votes right now, including challenged ballots that were ruled IN by elections officials, but NOT including some absentee ballots he claims were wrongly excluded and which will be the subject of a court challenge.
So, Nate was right and I was wrong that Coleman is going wild with his B.S. challenges to Franken voters.
Typical Republican -- try and bully your way into power if nothing else will work.
This is just another example of what a HORRIBLE it was to tolerate the Bush era dirty politics. The 2000 election becomes the NORM and every politician sees that it worked. So, as a last resort, cheat and block the vote, stage a "Brooks-Brothers riot" to block the recount, game the system, lie to the media, and take your case to your carefully appointed partisans in the Federal courts. And then scream bloody murder about your opponent "cheating" -- until you win.
Or as Richard Nixon put it: "Do anything. Pay them. Plead the fifth. Just save the plan."
Republicans don't know any other playbook and until they are beaten down badly a few more times they are going to go with what worked, no matter how outrageous and damaging it is to the country.
Mrs B: In essence, Minnesota voter registration works that way. You say who you are, your name gets crossed off the list, you vote. If you aren't on the list, you can get put on the list after providing some evidence you live in the precinct. Most states don't do it this way because republicans don't like it. They "fear" voter fraud which never materializes in practice. The "fear" disguises their political preference for making it harder to vote.
As far as whether the MN Indep. Party spoils DFL races, they do, but they get a lot of help from dubious, uninspiring DFL statewide candidates.
Virginia, That is a good move on MN's part, buy NH has the same rule that challangers must have personal knowledge of the violation. The problem is polling moderators who are unfamiliar with the law, cowed into submission or partisan in favor of the challanger and the bogeyman of "voter fraud". The improvement this election cycle in this state was dramatic. The AG did training for polling modertors, keepers of the checklist and poll workers, distributed detailed instructions on the law, had assistant AG's visit most polling locations on election day with a requirements checklist, distributed temporary cardboard voting booths for every polling station to hold in reserve (or set up in advance as a precaution for long lines), and imposed a rule that before any voter could be turned away, the moderator was required to call the Attorney General's office to get approval! It helped, of course, that we had 750 lawyers montitoring the polls for the Obama campaign and that the McCain campaign and the state Repubs. really did not mount any organized voter suppression strategy, though.
We have the same law as MINUTE for same day registration, but even if someone cannot prove citizenship, domicile or identity with paperwork, they can still sign an affidavit swearing to those things and vote. No provisional ballots, either. Those votes count.
Sorry, typo. MN not MINUTE. Darn autotext!
In the UK you cannot same day register. You have to fill out forms in advance, giving your name and address, but they take it on trust that you are a UK or Irish citizen (can vote in all elections) or an EU citizen (can vote in local elections and European elections but not parliamentary ones). The forms need to be with the local council about 4 weeks before an election.
It is simple logic. Coleman is losing.
The tactic for the leader going into the recount is to just challenge votes that add to your lead, but since Coleman is losing rather badly during the recount, they had to aggressively remove votes from Franken.
That is the only way that Coleman can win. You know to disenfranchise voters like Republicans like to do in most elections. Therefore, since Franken has been challenging less and removing fewer votes from Coleman's pile he is firmly in the lead.
Coleman lost the "real lead" right when about 80% of the recounted vote was tallied. Now Coleman is going to have to remove many more votes to hold his widening "fake" lead that fails to count all the MN vote.
Franken will widen the "real lead" and finish with a nice 50-100 vote real lead that counts all the MN votes.
Maybe Coleman should concede now, since he is the loser?
Nate,
Are you still predicting a 24(7?) vote win for Franken?
It's Unaminous!
Franken loses absentee ballot appeal before Minnesota State Canvasssing board.
Bye, Bye Al, its back to New York City and Air America
This is the question that needs to be cleared up. What percentage of "challenged" ballots get accepted? If a high percentage of the challenged ballots end up counting then whoever challenges the fewest benifits...
In essence, if Coleman challenges a ballot, it is because if counted it would likely count for Franken and vice versa. Therefore, if we can determine that a lot of the challanged ballots will eventually count, the person who challenges the most is in a weaker position. The fact that Coleman has challenged MORE than Franken is a good thing, despite the snarky comment I got on the board yesterday.
Am I wrong in my assumptions?
You cannot simply add back the challenges to the reported totals and determine what the result will be if all challenges are denied.
The challenge could have originally been a no-vote.. so overturning the challenge won't add to either candidate's total.
It is very likely, but entirely unprovable, that Franken will receive more vote from denied Coleman challenges that the reverse.. so Nate's 27 vote prediction is still very much in play.
But we aren't going to know anything useful until the challenges are ruled on, and the votes are put back into their proper category. The daily count (without challenged ballots) is meaningless in a race this close, unless the difference grows to an amount equivalent to a good percentage of the challenged ballot total.
You know, Mike, you might want to consider not embarrassing yourself with your crowing about Franken "going back to NYC". The canvassing board merely punted the decision to the courts, where this election will be adjudicated anyway:
"A state elections board decided it does not have the authority to decide whether rejected absentee ballots in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race should be counted, but the five-member board this morning agreed that any absentee votes that were not counted should be part of an ongoing recount.
The vote went against a request from Democrat Al Franken's campaign that the state Canvassing Board look through thousands of absentee ballots to decide which ones should be counted.
Supreme Court Justice G. Barry Anderson, one of four jurists on the board, said there is little doubt the race between Franken and Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman will end up in court, and that is where a decision about whether absentee ballots were property rejected should be decided."
I think I'm now understanding this a little better, but could do with confirmation from Nate.
Taking un-recounted votes as they were before, Coleman now leads by 238, or 23 more than he did on the original count.
And as Fred points out, Coleman has only made 78 more challenges than Franken. So a first thought is that if all challenges fail, Franken has gained by only 55 while 81% of the votes have been recounted, nowhere near enough progress to overturn a lead of 215.
BUT we don’t know how the challenge totals break down between (A) challenges to votes for the other guy, and (B) challenges against the exclusion of votes for you. (A) challenges reduce the other guy’s interim count, (B) challenges don’t affect the interim count.
So just suppose that Franken has made 200 more (B) challenges than Coleman
In which case, Coleman must have made 278 more (A) challenges than Franken
But Coleman has gained only 23 on the interim count, despite making 278 more (A) challenges
So Franken must have gained 255 from the corrections made in the recount process
So, as Franken was 215 behind before, he must now be 40 ahead
So if all the challenges were rejected, Franken would win by that 40
But if you apply the same logic to an assumption that Franken has made only 100 more (B) challenges than Coleman, then he has gained only 155, is 60 behind and would narrowly lose when the recount was completed.
UNLESS a greater proportion of Franken’s challenges were successful than of Coleman’s.
Kennyb, I agree with you and have been saying on this board all along the absentee ballot issue would fall to the US District Court AFTER the recount process was concluded. This is exactly what Franken did not want to happen. At the end of the recount process, Coleman will have the lead and will be declared the winner by the Canvassing board and Secretary of State - this is the law in Minnesota. Franken will have the opportunity to contest the election and take his complaints to US District Court. If he loses in US District Court then he takes the matter to the US Senate - which is the final authority on who takes the seat. So, imagine, Coleman wins every count- at the ballot box, after machine count audit, and now after the hand-held count - then Al goes to the Democratic Party controlled Senate and is awarded the seat. Care to take a guess as to how Minnesota voters will react to that scenerio?
MIKE
well, care to guess what that makes YOU with those partisan GOPer 'assumptions' you continually make trying to sell the meme that NORM WINS ???
it makes an ass outta u...
why not give it a rest & let both the recount process [which is nowhere near completed] and then the courts complete their wotk properly BEFORE you make your demand that Al concede a race that will be razor thin
3 weeks ago I bet you thought Smith & Stevens would be seated too in the next senate...
Looks like Norm will win unless the court lets the absentee ballots be counted. It appears that Mn. is the loser with a senator with the support of 42% of the state no matter who wins.
Actually it would be best for them to have Al win, he would be with the majority party and could do more for the state, than some jackass in the minority.
Anyway looks to me like Al will lose and Mn is still stuck with that horses ass.
Mike's partly right and partly wrong.
Minnesota law says the proper place to file an election contest is in Ramsey County District Court, not federal court.
Pursuing a claim in federal court would not be in accord with Minnesota election law, though it might be in accord with federal law, depending on the substance of the claim.
Mike,
I think the unbiased or Dem leaning MN voters would say he had played by the rules in making sure all the eligible ballots were counted.
Unlike what happened in FL.
The Coleman voters, well, they want Coleman to win, so they are bound to complain if Franken wins, however that happens. But the Dems haven't got their votes now, so they won't be worse off afterwards by losing them.
I need to add something to my last post.
In fact, even if Franken only comes close, a lot of third party voters and Dems who didn't vote may be inspired to turn out for the party next time, because they know they can win. Also - and this is a sad fact, but a fact nonetheless - there is a lot of evidence that the less politically minded voters tend to vote for whoever they think is going to win. Some of them may be peeled off from the Republicans next time too.
Mike,
How will the voters of Minnesota feel? Those that voted for Coleman will feel cheated, just like when Bush won the 2000 election 5-4 in a decision totally at odds with the majority's judicial philosophy.
If absentee ballots were improperly excluded, they should be counted. Whatever body has jurisdiction to determine the answer to that question should do it in due course.
Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is the Franken campaign is asking for ALL 6300 absentee ballots to be examined (98% of these ballots were rejected for very good reasons), including the voters being contacted and interviewed, in its attempt to break this wide open. If Franken had been able to do this from the canvassing board there would be no court to run this process - in other words it would be a free for all - giving Franken multiple excuses to get the final judgement before the US Senate where his fellow Democrats would seat him. This is Al's game - they already know he cannot make up the difference with the challenged votes or those remaining to be counted - his only chance are the absentee's throwing off enough fog to get this in the hands of Chuckie Shumer and his buddies.
Kennyb, I don't disagree with you. The problem is the Franken campaign is asking for ALL 6300 absentee ballots to be examined (98% of these ballots were rejected for very good reasons)
And how do you propose to determine whether an absentee ballot was rejected properly, or improperly, without examining them?
We already know many examples exist of people who voted correctly, but did not have their vote counted because someone rejected their ballot inappropriately.
There is simply only one fair way to determine the winner.. finish the recount, settle the challenges, and review all the rejected absentee ballots to rescue all the ones rejected incorrectly. Add them up, and a one vote margin settles it.
If that is done, neither Franken nor Coleman have any right to ask that more be done.
KennyB,
Glad to hear it! Training poll workers adequately is one of the greatest challenges in election administration. We have the country's largest single-day workforce, the average age of which is 72. It's a job that requires technical acumen, legal knowledge, people skills, and the ability to correctly adhere to procedure in the face of intimidating election observers, as you point out. It's not easy to find and train people to handle the task (especially with the paltry budgets many elections administrators work with); I'm glad the NH AG did a good job this year.
I understand everyone wants to work for their cause, but I do wish more of the intelligent, talented people who work Election Day for the campaigns would opt to serve in the polls instead. That would ease the training burden somewhat.
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