Quantcast FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Senate Update; Plus Chambliss Barely Over 50%

11.05.2008

Minnesota Senate Update; Plus Chambliss Barely Over 50%

Al Franken is roughly 3,000 votes down with 90% in, but the vast majority of the remaining numbers are in Hennepin County, where Minneapolis sits. With 22% of precincts left to report, that would be roughly 137,000 votes if the proportions stayed the same in the precincts (not guaranteed). With Franken winning Hennepin by 17 points, that would seem to be well more than enough to pass Coleman, though we caution we don't know which precincts are in within Hennepin, and which are outstanding.

If Franken can win that seat, Democrats would have 58 seats with Jeff Merkley's Oregon race outstanding against incumbent Gordon Smith. Saxby Chambliss is at 50.3% in Georgia. If it were a simple plurality win, the race would have been called long ago. But if Chambliss cannot get to 50%, watch out for a month of drama in the Peach State.

94 comments

Chris said...

c'mon Fraken!

Gennette said...

off topic: what about NE2?

Gennette said...

Talk about Nebraska, kids. Nebraska!!!

Chris said...

damn. 1st post and a typo. too much beer

William said...

Independence DEAN BARKLEY 406224 15.23
Republican NORM COLEMAN 1124379 42.15
Democratic-Farmer-Labor AL FRANKEN 1113859 41.75

thentro said...

Oh man, I am sitting in St. Paul hitting refresh on the sec. state page.

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=%27%27

I cant stand it! St. Louis in the north has to come fully in too. Very dem.

Gennette said...

Oh, I thought you were making a pun on "frak" from battle star galactica. Let's just pretend that wasn't a typo. :)

Shadowspecies said...

I think franken and merkley will pull it out.

Whether enough votes are still outstanding in georgia to knock chambliss .3 points down...

If we did that, id call it a grand slam night.

Pyropasta said...

Come on, 49.9! I'll take what I can get.

DiscoverUU.com said...

agreed! how did Nebraska break down?

Patrick said...

I think Obama is going to win NE-02! He's leading by about 2,000 votes!

Devin said...

The hard vote count has Coleman up by 78 votes.

Anne U. said...

Did some places un-call Georgia? It's still blank on some maps.

LJ said...

Unfortunately it looks to be a bittersweet night. Norm Coleman makes me sick and it really blows that he's my senator.

Hank said...

Franken is down 78 votes!

Nathan said...

can we PLEASE get some thoughts on ALASKA?!?! How is Stevens winning?!?!

David said...

Nate Silver - you were named in the xkcd comic for today (when you mouse over the comic).

http://xkcd.com/

Rob said...

The Hennepin county ballots are somewhat misleading. While many of them are from Minneapolis, favoring Franken, there are some from suburbs like Eden Prairie that strongly favor Coleman. Slight advantage for Franken, I think.

A significant number are also outstanding from the Iron Range in NE Minnesota...significant advantage for Franken.

It'll be close, but it's possible.

net-e said...

Pounded the pavement all day to GOTV for Franken in Hennepin County.

GO FRANKEN!!!

InkStain said...

That xkcd comic was awesome.

Nate appears to have almost completely nailed this election. He is a god for four years.

Georgeyboy8036 said...

the 78 down is with 94% reporting, with 9% still out in Hennepin

Hans said...

Based on this link... http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrmaps/20081104/

St. Louis County still has outstanding precints to report. This is a great county for Obama. The only other county with precints to report is Christian.

Go Hussein!

That said...

Franken is down 11k, with most votes still out being in the GOP exurbs of northern Hennepin county and the neighboring counties to the north (Bachmann country).

I hate to say it, but I think we re-elected that bastard.

Pete said...

Can someone talk about WTF is going on in AK-Sen??

I thought Begich was 100% safe??

J said...

Also, the only person who you should trust to call an Oregon race, veteran pollster and analyst Tim Hibbits (a perennial staple of Oregon election night coverage) called the Oregon senate race for Merkley three hours ago.

thentro said...

Where are you getting -78 votes? I see -11,511...

Forrest J. Bowlick said...

NE-2 NE-2 NE-2!!!!!

That is all.

wv- 'banlan'

It's a banlan out there for Obama supporters. PARTY!

anbruch said...

Anne U. said...

Did some places un-call Georgia? It's still blank on some maps.


Apparently, there are still a lot of Atlanta early votes uncounted. http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/04/georgia_presidential_voting.html

LJ said...

Not sure where you MN guys are getting your numbers. Based on the Secretary of State site, Franken is down 1129423 to 1117912.

Davy said...

Merkley in Oregon is just barely ahead of Smith by 1,317 votes. But most of the outstanding counties are the progressive ones with population centers. But Smith is a likeable incumbent.

wv: rednecte. HA! perfect

whispers said...

Speculating about a filibuster-proof majority seems a bit dubious when McCain's BFF Joe Lieberman is one of the 60 votes needed to sustain a cloture vote.

Gregory said...

You had better check the Alaskan results. Stevens is winning over the democrat Begich. He has almost a 2 percent lead now and I dont think he is going to loose. I live in Alaska and still cant imagine how Alaska is electing a convicted fellon but Stevens is insanely popular here and has done alot for many people in the state.

William said...

LJ said...

Not sure where you MN guys are getting your numbers. Based on the Secretary of State site, Franken is down 1129423 to 1117912.


CNN is showing a closer race with more votes.

Todd Dugdale said...

There are also significant votes left in St. Louis County (Duluth) for Franken.

Dale Petrie said...

In MN, you forgot about St. Louis County. Currently Franken is up 55k votes to Coleman 31k w/ 68% reporting. Seems a few thousand net votes will come from there as well. Current update, Franken down by just over 1k votes w/ 94% reporting. Not sure how Coleman could still win with that many votes left in Hennepin & St. Louis Counties.

Hank said...

I gotta believe that the CNN didn't create vote totals so that their count is actually ahead of the secretary of state count. It's possible.

holgate said...

Nate: you called it, sir. I suspect you'll need to pay someone to answer your phones for the next week.

Only you know whether there's more of a career in crunching baseball stats or election stats -- my guess is the former. But you're booked in for 2012.

Davy said...

RE: Stevens contest in AK

If Stevens wins A Republican replacement or interim candidte can be appointed.

wv: elliserm, the skin of Ellis?

John Vance said...

Congratulations Nate! Given the majority of the outstanding vote count is in California, the spread looks like it will settle around 6-7 points. The only state that isn't going according to your model is Indiana, and Missouri is an absolute dead heat. Your accuracy is outstanding.

Captcha: dupsych - as in dupya is a sychopath!

Georgeyboy8036 said...

1,409 for coleman 95% reporting

Nathan said...

Come on Nate, feed us something on Alaska. Are Palin's coattails lifting Stevens? I need some trustworthy wisdom.

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 94.41%
time 1:39:24

norm coleman 1131127
al franken 1119491
11636

Paul said...

Hmm ... as I write this (11:42 PST), according to CNN, there were a total of 3.68 million votes for president in Georgia, but only 3.1 million in the Senate race, with 98% of the precincts counted.

Helen said...

Nate and Sean, thank you SO MUCH for keeping me sane!!! Your site and the people here really did that. :) And I am SO PROUD AND HAPPY!!!!! We were out LITERALLY dancing in the streets in Ann Arbor for several hours and just got home!!!! This is truly historic!!!


Can you please do a post about the CA gay marriage ban????? I'm worried about that one!! I also can't believe Arkansas banned gay couples from adopting. Makes me sick :(

Hugs from Helen!!!

Georgeyboy8036 said...

Both AK races are leads, but i think they'll both flip by the end of ballot counting

Todd Dugdale said...

MN SOS site is not updated as frequently. MPR passes on SOS numbers

cher said...

This afternoon all I really wanted was 270 for Barack. Now I want Franken so desperately and Mo. Nc. and I don't think there is much chance for Montana. For those of you who worked for Franken this must be so stressful. The closer it is the more difficult. I hope he can pull it out.

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 94.55%
time 1:44:10

norm coleman 1131572
al franken 1120123
11449

Danel said...

For all of you asking about NE-2, CNN has given it to McCain. Obama lost it from my calculation (seeing as it is Sharpy and Douglas Counties) that Obama lost it by a very small marigin. He won Douglas County by about 7,000 votes but lost Sharpy County by about 11,000. Very close indeed.

Also it is just me or do the networks not feel like calling anything more states. Everything seems to be in from North Carolina and Obama has the most votes... at least according to CNN.

J said...

Go to adn.com for Alaska news. Stevens and Begich are ahead slightly, but those leads are continuing to narrow with just 53% of the votes in. If Alaska is like anywhere else, the large, more populated areas take the longest to count. And those areas tend to be more Democratic. Since the results are already moving in the Democratic direction, I think there's reason for hope.

Hank said...

NBC has numbers similar to CNN's, also with more votes than the secretary of state website. I got to believe NBC and CBS are accurate.

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 94.67%
time 1:49:09

norm coleman 1134953
al franken 1122835
12118

LJay said...

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
coleman pulling away

Can you say realignment? said...

Viva Obama! Viva Nate! Viva 538!

The only dark spots tonight are Bachman, Stevens and the Senate count not hitting 60 (I didn't really think it would). Oh and Petekent marring an otherwise reasonable, well written post by invoking the rise of Palin(?!) "I knew Ronald Reagan, ma'am, and you are no Ronald Reagan." She motivates the base PK but repulses everyone else. The new GOP is going to stop demonizing smart people and coddling the wingnuts of the party as it tries to reach out to independents again.

Here in Utah, Obama got 34.5% of the vote which I consider a moral victory since no dem has cracked the 30% mark since FDR I think.

wv: ablerma- the-ba newba prubesidubent ub-elect.

William said...

CNN has Franken taking the lead!

LJay said...

word?@ william

OH SHIT YOU'RE RIGHT
HOLD ON FRANK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

docbenny said...

It looks like McCain will pick up MO, barring any recount differences.

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 94.84%
time 1:54:17

norm coleman 1135847
al franken 1123741
12106

Dale Petrie said...

Using CNN's #'s & estimating based on reported results and where votes still are, it would seem that Franken should win by about 12,000 votes. Only problem is, where within those counties are the votes not yet reported, and will there be a recount?

loudej said...

@william !? really

Ryan said...

A recount is mandatory per Minnesota law if the margin of victory is less than 0.5%.

So in short, yes, there will be a recount, almost certainly.

William said...

@Dale Petrie:

I'd count on a statewide recount.

William said...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSMN

DF said...

NE Sec'y of State site appears to call NE-2 for Obama:

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf

C said...

Hennepin County, MN Results

Steve said...

Franken 1,151,156 42%
Coleman 1,150,091 42%
96% of the precincts reporting

Word Verification: Sneke

John McCain is a lying sneke.

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 95.01%
time 1:59:14

norm coleman 1,137,916
al franken 1,126,145
11,771

source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

weinerdog said...

What's up with Chambliss/Martin? CNN shows it 50-46, but I thought there were a bunch of votes that hadn't been counted? They show 98% of precincts in....

William said...

AK getting closer:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSAK

LJay said...

franken up 2,000 in Sota per CNN

loudej said...

MN - so close - any thoughts on what a recount would do to the numbers? Would it favor either candidate?

norcalmetsfan said...

% precincts 95.28%
time 2:04:17

norm coleman 1,139,724
al franken 1,128,403
11,321


source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

C said...

Optical scan ballots in MN. It shouldn't make much of a difference one way or another.

Travis said...

NE secretary of state results at
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
are out of date (check the timestamp: still 11:26pm). Or check the vote totals: it shows statewide McCain 350222, Obama 260917. But the final unofficial results at http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/pres.htm
show vote counts statewide totaling to McCain 439665, Obama 316189.

Figuring District 2 as Douglas County plus roughly 3/4 of Sarpy County using the county-by-county results shows a McCain victory. And that agrees with how all the networks called it.

Steve said...

Franken 1,152,404 42%
Coleman 1,151,027 42%
Barkley 416,688 15%
96% precincts reporting

weinerdog said...

Regarding the MN ballots - heard a strange bit from a coworker yesterday. At her polling place, a worker stood up and told everyone present that if ANY ink got outside of the circle when it was filled in, the selection WOULD NOT count. Needless to say, she was alarmed.

norcalmetsfan said...

Precincts 95.57% (3947 of 4130)
Time Last update was: 11/5/2008 2:09:12 AM
norm coleman 1,145,927
al franken 1,134,310
11,617


source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

rdweber said...

CNN numbers confirmed by MPLS local CBS and NBC affiliates. Franken now leading by 1500.

Travis said...

NE secretary of state results at

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf

just updated, and now shows a McCain win for district 2. Close though: 126303 vs 125734 votes...

Michael said...

Weinerdog: Nobody is questioning that Chambliss is going to end up with a lead in GA.

But the question is if he'll end up over 50% - if not, there's a runoff. And it's very close.

norcalmetsfan said...

Precincts 95.69% (3952 of 4130)
Time Last update was: 11/5/2008 2:14:14 AM
norm coleman 1146415
al franken 1134876
11,539



source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

norcalmetsfan said...

is it possible the data on the Min sec of state website is not fresh?

LJay said...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#MN

franken up about 1k

norcalmetsfan said...

Precincts 95.86% (3959 of 4130)
Time Last update was: 11/5/2008 2:19:09 AM
norm coleman 1,147,617
al franken 1,136,060
11,557



source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

Christopher said...

norcal,

The CNN data is better, I think, as it's compiled from each individual county report whereas the sos data is a bit more delayed as they compile it.

It looks like a win for Franken with Hennepin and St Louis counties still remaining and not too much of Stearns coming in.

Felicia said...

Thanks so much to all of you. I wouldn't have made it through this election without your encouragment & stamina. Did lawyer election protection work in St. Louis - so depressing. Makes the Chicago machine seem transparent & all inclusive.

Thrilled beyond tears for BO, but can't belive we still have Bachman & maybe no Franken. Was there some 3d party candidate screwing up the MN final numbers?

Thanks for all your humour & enthusiasm.

norcalmetsfan said...

Precincts 96.17% (3972 of 4130)
Time Last update was: 11/5/2008 2:24:18 AM
norm coleman 1150261
al franken 1139101
11160

source: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=''

norcalmetsfan said...

@christopher Thanks for letting me know about the CNN data. I wasn't sure if it was as accurate as the SOS site.

weinerdog said...

Michael - thanks, that makes sense. I thought I heard earlier that GA had misplaced or not counted something like 1.5 million ballots, but they must have rectified it.

Felicia - there was an Independence Party candidate got 10%, but that's no excuse for them. I have relatives whom I'm sure voted for her. There is some serious xenophobia, intolerance, and right wing fundy crap up in those northern exurbs and beyond.

Christopher said...

Hennepin just came in, maybe another 4000 net votes for Franken left there.

SOS numbers:

Coleman: 1174737 - 42.09%
Franken: 1167388 - 41.83%

Sam said...

According to CNN, right now it looks like Franken by ~1000 pretty consistently as votes trickle in.

In MN .5% between top two candidates automatically means a recount. I think we can plan on another day or two for sure...

aria said...

Georgia's Senate is not over. Chambliss is not over 50% yet, close but not yet.

Click here

信次 said...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,

freefun0616 said...

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,

,