FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Meta

11.04.2008

Meta

by Nate Silver @ 8:32 PM

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So far, the night has gone pretty much how you might expect it to based on the pre-election polls

84 comments

Jesse Radin said...: Will you be on TV?; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
dtizzle said...: first; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
aiyoung said...: YEAH FIRST BLOCK; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
J. Capp said...: waiting in indiana and virginia though, natey boy.; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
MEDIAWEST PRODUCTIONS CO said...: we going to have 15000 people in los angeles for a party tonight!!!; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
ZAJA Natural said...: Second :p; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
Chuck said...: WTF is going on in VA; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
Nathan Miller said...: ...truly a win for your model!; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
ZAJA Natural said...: I am so annoyed with Georgia!; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
Lumarin said...: You must get getting massive quantities of page hits right now. Love the site!; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
John said...: what the hell is going on in virginia...to repeat what that guy asked?; November 4, 2008 8:35 PM
MysticLaker said...: praise jesus. the model works!; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Caitlin said...: yeah, what's up with VA? I'm trying to be patient here...; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Matthew said...: Besides, of course, Virginia is making me nervous (I have typed that a few times)
I know that NoVa is slow to be counted, but still...; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Darren said...: What is going on in Virginia? McCain is ahead by quite a bit. Fox News just called PA for Obama, so I have to assume that it's going for him.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Jeff NYC Dem said...: No GA win tonight. NBC calls it for McCain.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
John Evo said...: Nate will hit this thing pretty close. So much for Tom Bradley.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Darío said...: Fox News called PA for Obama.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
jakam said...: North Carolina looks a little better for Obama than Virginia...that's a surprise.; November 4, 2008 8:37 PM
X said...: Why is the result map a much darker blue than the projected map?; November 4, 2008 8:37 PM
Joseph said...: MSNBC called GA for McCain. I frankly think that is too early of a call, with such a high turnout.; November 4, 2008 8:37 PM
delante said...: wow, can u please explain whats going on in virginia, Obama is down big and the margin seems to be growing, is northern virginia, richmond, and hampton roads going to make up for it????; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Kelly Powers said...: Just have to say that I LOVE IT that Texas is actually blue on the New York Times map right now, even though it won't last. (First time posting - been addicted for weeks. Nate Silver & Co., you all rock in a very big way.); November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
AxmxZ said...: Will Texas deliver the surprise of the evening? Stay tuned...

wv: fembrie - a cheese for the ladies!; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Colin Wilson said...: Fox News just gave Obama PA.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Matt B. said...: damn, MSNBC called GA for McCain.... was hoping BO could steal that one.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
AxmxZ said...: Will Texas deliver the surprise of the evening? Stay tuned...

wv: fembrie - a cheese for the ladies!; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Lucas said...: I'd like to see a comment on Virginia. with 41% in it's 54% McCain to 45% Obama. How is this possible?; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
sdf said...: VA -- nothing in from Richmond yet according to the county projections. Would still be nice for it to start to close.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Mark said...: The VA counting is mainly in the south of the state that is R whereas the good poles for D were in the North.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
hark said...: MSNBC switched Virginia from too early to call, which I assumed meant it was only a matter of time before Obama was declared, to too close to call, and McCain has a huge lead at present.

Suddenly, this presidential race doesn't look too hot.; November 4, 2008 8:39 PM
SHERWICK said...: CNN projects PA to OBAMA!; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
Nicholas Warino said...: CNN just gave Obama Pennsylvania.; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
PeteKent said...: Liddy Dole didn't lose...

It can't be...

I'll commit suicide if it's true!!; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
El Oso said...: COME ON FLORIDA!!! GO BLUE DAMN YOU!!!; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
Puddy said...: cnn projects penn for obama; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
venicelonghorn said...: "unamerican" va has hardly been counted yet - chill; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
Dave-london said...: Which red state will fall first

FL, VA, or CO, NM; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
broberts said...: CNN just called CNN; November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
Tyson said...: VA...please don't let us down.

Great job PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 8:42 PM
broberts said...: Arghhh CNN just called PA; November 4, 2008 8:42 PM
Jeff NYC Dem said...: dave-london....north carolina; November 4, 2008 8:42 PM
cane said...: Two concepts, three words

Katrina
Abu Ghraib; November 4, 2008 8:42 PM
William said...: PA to OBAMA! If McCain fails to get VA, it's ALL OVER.; November 4, 2008 8:42 PM
edward w said...: Nate, on your state poll details info section on the lower right of the web page can you add rows below the projection percentages and win percentages for actual result reported percentages (though I do know updating in real time might be a bit much to ask). Thanks!; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
CloudyFuture said...: fox was talking about how mccain over performed in VA so far and mccain rep said their internal polls say they will win VA by 2 or 3 points....; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Cory R. King said...: The cities in VA haven't reported yet, which is why nobody has called it. I really wish all these maps that break down by county would include the population of that county in their details!; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
tony said...: Intrade still has VA 80/20 for Obama. Don't panic chaps.; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Norris G said...: As a Richmonder, my biased view is that once Richmond and all of the Northern VA counties are counted that we'll see Obama with a strong lead.; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
broberts said...: given the very long lines in VA they may still be voting; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
stop_the_stutter said...: Chambliss wins...; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Barry said...: PeteKent - Liddy's gone. You can come down off the ledge.; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Subterranean said...: Nate predicts: BHO's VA win share is 97%

Nate posts: things are unfolding as expected.

hark posts: ZOMG WE'RE GOING TO LOSE.

*Rolls eyes.*; November 4, 2008 8:44 PM
Dave-london said...: VA News

Mccain VA strategist on BBC re VA "its not looking good".

Complaining about money.

It was a small round man, glasses. missed his name.; November 4, 2008 8:44 PM
Jeffrey said...: Nate! Talk us through Virginia!; November 4, 2008 8:45 PM
grandpa john said...: for Virginia, nothing in yet for Richond and Fake Virginia, the places where the Obama votes are.; November 4, 2008 8:45 PM
NotYourBlog said...: Can someone explain how there is hope for VA still? What big counties are we missing?; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
SHERWICK said...: So Obama with 102 EC votes already with the entire West Coast to come and I think NY? How many is that already?; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
phast said...: hey 538 guys ... thanks for your awesome site.

seriously, how are delaware and maryland called with 0% of precincts reporting?

I know that there's probably no chance of them going red based on results in other states, but ... well, they might as well call ALL the "safe" states right now with that sort of philosophy.; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
Jaka said...: This is great news... for John McCain!
He's got us right where he wants us!; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
SHERWICK said...: "It was a small round man, glasses. missed his name."

Karl Rove?; November 4, 2008 8:47 PM
GrogzH said...: BBC just interviewed 2 officals in Virgina. The GOP guy as good as conceded the state. They are not wracking up enough voters in the south. Once the north (i.e FAKE Virginia) comes in it will swing.

Gutted about GA that was my big bet of the night.; November 4, 2008 8:47 PM
iubyont said...: GA for Obama doesn't matter that much. I'm much more disappointed in how poorly chambliss is doing in the senta race.; November 4, 2008 8:47 PM
Gen Sherman said...: Virginia will break...
Commie North will bring it home.; November 4, 2008 8:48 PM
Joseph said...: North VA has not reported in yet...chill out folks. :); November 4, 2008 8:48 PM
Janet said...: First time poster here and a general latecomer to 538 as well, just became obsessed with it a couple weeks ago.

Nate, you rock! I've missed all your Olbermann appearances so far and was hoping to catch your insights on HDNet with Rather, but HDNet isn't closed-captioning their live programming! ARGH!

As an alternate, I've been enjoying MSNBC's coverage so far and even switched over to FOX News for some laughs. I trust you'll be in demand as a talking head during the post-election coverage as well, so I hope to catch you during an accessible upcoming appearance.

Gobama!; November 4, 2008 8:48 PM
YVGW said...: Watch North Carolina come in county by county here.

good riddance liddy dole; November 4, 2008 8:49 PM
SHERWICK said...: CNN "This will be a *very* big night for Obama".; November 4, 2008 8:49 PM
Dave-london said...: No not rove, damn cant beleive i missed his name,

basically the vote counted has been rural, its not enough to cover the urban vote about to come through.

money, money sob sob. BBC reported said you are hoping for a bradley effect and it hasnt happended.; November 4, 2008 8:50 PM
olinthusp said...: The Virginia State Board of Elections has county by county numbers. There's still zero for Richmond City, which will probably dump 80,000 + into the Obama Column. McCain's margin in Chesterfield are not great--below Allen's I think in the Senate race. Obama winds Virginia with about 51% is my call.; November 4, 2008 8:50 PM
SHERWICK said...: dave-london - so the big GOP hope was racism?; November 4, 2008 8:51 PM
grandpa john said...: In GA I doubt that Atlanta area is in yet so all is not yet lost.; November 4, 2008 8:51 PM
CloudyFuture said...: GrogzH said...
BBC just interviewed 2 officals in Virgina. The GOP guy as good as conceded the state. They are not wracking up enough voters in the south. Once the north (i.e FAKE Virginia) comes in it will swing.

Gutted about GA that was my big bet of the night.
+++++++++++

Guess the rep for mccain must have polled numbers out of thin air then (since he said their internals have them winning the state).....

But I can not imagine mccain rep lying...thats unpatroitic....; November 4, 2008 8:52 PM
Dave-london said...: I like how fast the fl vote is being sorted. tip tip tip!

In pheonix - band playing is she really going out with him.. clearly an ironic choice.; November 4, 2008 8:52 PM
GrogzH said...: Colorado and New Mexico in ten minutes. Will they be called straight away. The first states to flip.; November 4, 2008 8:52 PM
Diego said...: greetings from the philippines. great site. i've never been more addicted to US news.; November 4, 2008 8:53 PM
El Oso said...: Where did my fingernails go!!????; November 4, 2008 8:53 PM
Dave-london said...: cnn calls hagan dole; November 4, 2008 8:54 PM
Wolf10 said...: Pinch me, I'm giddy. Are we actually going to free ourselves of the neocon/Christian fundamentalist axis of dimwittedness?; November 4, 2008 8:54 PM
delante said...: BO is up in Florida and most of the returns arent even in from dade, broward, and palm beach counties WOW, anyone want to call FL yet?; November 4, 2008 8:56 PM
Gen Sherman said...: Big moment now. Bunch of states closing. A better picture should appear.; November 4, 2008 9:00 PM
Gen Sherman said...: AZ too close to call!
TX too close to call!
I don't expect either to go to Obama, but the fact that they're too close to call is good news...

FOR JOHN McCAIN!!!; November 4, 2008 9:03 PM
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水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^; August 28, 2009 3:32 AM

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11.04.2008

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