In a word: No. There's no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates In Dixville Notch and their performances in the rest of New Hampshire -- never mind the rest of the country:
Still, you'd rather be up 15-6 than down, wouldn't you?
11.04.2008
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
@ 12:51 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
564 comments
Happy Election Day everyone!
It's my birthday and I know what I want :-)
wv: sonsives. Good candidates don't have sex with their sonsives.
Nate/Sean
new thread please :D
Long lines in Utah!!!
Mrs B,
It basically raises taxes $20.00 for more money for the librarys. Thats what Prop 3 is. I have not seen any polls on Prop 3 but it does look like Prop 1 and Prop 2 will pass according to polls.
Just voted Obama in rural CT. No lines in this small town. GO VOTE.
"synara" - need I say more?
central western NJ
I voted! Go Obama.
Utah is turning blue!
(Or not.)
Stemac: the part of the apple-ac that you don't eat.
Blogger Real Joe said...
i was joking
I know LOL
They were showing the voting precinct from Joe Biden's old neighborhood.
Dozens of Bosniaks waiting to vote!
Hey America go save the frikkin' world!!! I'm still terrified you people are going to screw it up, after all you DID vote for Bush TWICE.
Show me up as the bigoted anti-american I am, please:-)
Re "joe" the "plumber" -- Dorr St., LOL, I know where that is.
Let me say this one more time about Ohio: the Obama campaign is soooooooo much better organized than the Gore or Kerry campaigns were.
As to the reference to Vince McMahoh and pro wrestling way upthread, I'll just say:
If ya SMELL-L-L-L-L-L-L what BaRACK is cookin'!!!!
All I can say is that I wish Tim Russert and Toots were alive to witness this historic night. Polls just opened here in Northern Wisconsin, I'm off to cast my vote for Obama.
darío said...
Long lines in Utah!!!
really ?
no reports from Utah
Utah has a small population
Long lines are good news for LIBRARY BOOKS!
That's a good measure, more books - more education = fewer Repubs (see earlier thread from a few days ago).
Did the polls even open in Utah?
In Utah, a long line could just mean the Osmonds got up to vote early.
Well, it's the 6am hour in UT. So, the people in line may be the early birds.
Just voted for O in exurban NYC (no early voting in NY). No lines but there never are in this neck of the woods.
Everyone GOTV
Get a good idea how the early morning lines are moving with the Fox Broadcast stations morning shows...
http://media.myfoxla.com/election/
just caught 3 live shots from Fox Atlanta...Cobb County very small lines, mostly white, rich looking folk...
Inner city Atlanta areas...Heavily AA long lines, not moving quick..
Im liking Obama's chances in Georgia more and more....
With such a small sample size it's really not surprising that Dixville Notch is not predictive of the Dems' share of the vote in New Hampshire. It might be more informative to look at how often the town has picked the winner of the state and not his share of the vote.
According to the reich-wing, long lines are good news for McCain, short lines are good news for McCain, bad weather is good new for McCain, good weather is good new for McCain,.......*yawn*
> Best Palin palin-drome
>(from Alex Beam, Boston Globe).
>
>partyboobytrap
Sorry: "Wasilla's all I saw."
For all those people who contributed, volunteered and voted for Barack, I just wanted to extend my thanks from the following people:
from my mother, who had to use the side window at the Dairy Queen in Arkansas
from my father, who had to use the second hand football equipment in high school
from my grandfather (rest his soul) who was buried in the “colored” cemetery two years ago
from my siblings who, although successful, never quite felt they were considered equals
and lastly from my daughter, who will know a world where you really can achieve anything
voting in FL going well
Long lines in Utah was a joke.
News from Ohio?
report voting problems by phone: 1 866 our vote
It's the election protection hotline: http://www.866ourvote.org/
darío said...
News from Ohio?
high turnout, long lines
So how much money does the McCain campaign have to give 538 for every time I click on their ads? 5 cents? 10 cents?
Voted this morning in Cincinnati, OH. Got there when polls opened, had to wait in line about an hour. Poll workers said they have never seen lines like that.
reports of high voter turnout in PA
How Sean Hannity Lost The Election for the GOP
Cheers. S
Long lines in Boston/Cambridge MA....
Great to see!
reports of long lines in WV
Pics of Obama yesterday, please see the last two.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/obamas-monday-election-ev_n_140577.html
Just voted in MI (Ann Arbor). One hour wait. People brought their own folding chairs!!
Well one thing looks clear - betwen them Obama & Palin have shure fired up the voters.
warat - military rodent
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live_asx.html?stream=stream4
Obama voting now!!!!
just came back from a meeting with my boss...got asked what was so distracting. I then decided to act less absent for the last minutes of the meeting and focus on our financial management reform cause I didn't want to admit that I had an important meeting scheduled with my favourite election web site. Even though people here in France follow the election I figured it wasn't a good idea to admit my addiction. Just one more day and one more difficult morning tomorrow to go to be sure to keep my job.
Btw, the republicans abroad I know here are already planning on not showing up to the common election night at the embassy. Great spirit!!
Why is there no new thread up yet?
And if anyone was curious as to my final prediction for class, I went with McCain over Obama, 285-253.
Voted in PA this morning. Short lines, but then again, I live in a white suburb, so they give us enough voting machines.
It's a bright, sunshiney day across our fair state. I'm predicting 75% turnout in PA - And put me down for Pennsylvania going BO +6.5%
Uh, Nate, what about these items?
2. One last senate polling update, probably late tonight.
3. A primer on why you should absolutely, positively ignore exit polls.
4. A review of the early voting numbers and their effects on the polling.
5. Some kind of county-by-county benchmarking for a handful of key battleground states.
Here in the Philadelphia suburbs, lines were apparently about 40 mins. long starting at 7am.
I happen to live (and work) across the street from my polling location, so I'm waiting until after 9am to give all the "do this before I get to work" people a chance and getting through first.
Very excited and a little nervous. This will be the first presidential election I've voted in. I don't really have any excuses for the last two, unless you count apathy. ;)
I'm afraid to report that I accidentally voted for McCain.
:(
ONLY JOKING!!!!!!!!
"from my mother, who had to use the side window at the Dairy Queen in Arkansas
from my father, who had to use the second hand football equipment in high school
from my grandfather (rest his soul) who was buried in the “colored” cemetery two years ago
from my siblings who, although successful, never quite felt they were considered equals
and lastly from my daughter, who will know a world where you really can achieve anything"
So you're saying you voted for Obama just because he's black.
Obama voting right now!
"champion88 said...
And if anyone was curious as to my final prediction for class, I went with McCain over Obama, 285-253"
Really?
Then..
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HEEE HEEEEEEEE HAHAHAA HEE HAAA HAAA!
cemetery88-
Thanks for being an idiot. For the nth time, blacks finally have a candidate to vote for who is viable, blacks did not vote fro Jackson, Braun, or Sharpton - people are NOT voting for OBama "just because he is black"
Take your idiot self somewhere today, but to a voting booth.
Vote for a uniter not a divider!! Obama 2008
sherwick
you will do yourself an injury if you laugh that hard
Anyone want to bet which way LA will go?
I went to my poll at 6:00 AM. 50 person line waiting there.
Lines are around the block everywhere in Manhattan right now. Subways and offices seem emptier than normal.
Voter turnout will be enourmous.
All quiet on the poll front. Obama extended his lead in Zogby, IBD, and DailyKos last night. I know Rasmussen is out at 9 AM, I don't know if GW is doing another poll.
"So you're saying you voted for Obama just because he's black."
No, stupid, he's saying that he is cherishes the fact that people are voting for Obama who would not have voted for him just a generation ago.
Ya Chamapion - that seems the righty crazy prediction you all heave - McCain 285. That requires party ID from 2004 and the undecides all to break for McCain (which they do not seem to be, based on last night polling).
"Thanks for being an idiot. For the nth time, blacks finally have a candidate to vote for who is viable, blacks did not vote fro Jackson, Braun, or Sharpton - people are NOT voting for OBama "just because he is black"
Take your idiot self somewhere today, but to a voting booth."
I was just saying it based on what he said.
fail
champion88 ignorantly said...
So you're saying you voted for Obama just because he's black.
Walk a mile in THEIR shoes. Or shut up.
I am also wearing my Obama pin on my suit jacket lapel. Got a lot of compliments this morning.
I've noticed the McCain spokespeople have such have been quiet the past day or two. They must know what's coming.
"Walk a mile in THEIR shoes. Or shut up."
So I was right that he voted for him because he is black?
lol my word was fries!
champion88 - did you choose your nickname for any connection with any other 88s by any chance? Not a good number for us left of centre people.
ps, obama's website had the correct polling place for us ...
unlike the gop site
good morning all -
Good catch Mrs. B.
Ya, pride is a bad thing for righties when someone else shows it. Righties are so myopic and weak.
It looks like we're getting rain in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia AND Arlington. I can't believe this is happeneing.
Someone talk me down from the ledge here. I have a bad feeling about this.
"our model has its own ideas about how to handle undecideds"
Please Nate, whatever you do, don't connect your model into SkyNet!!! :)
thanks pa john, hope you are keeping well and looking forward to a great party in your neighbourhood tonight.
If only elections in the UK were like this one.
filith - what the McC campaign has been reduced to spouting
538 Comments Section All-Star Team
Real Joe
PA John
VA Conservative
Sherwick
Antmatic?
Any others?
inkstain is absolutely on ANY all star team.
Rasmussen Today (FINAL!):
Obama: 52
McCain: 46
Obama +6
It looks like the Wright ads aren't helping McCain.
All-Star team
aunt karen for being sensible and eric for calming everyone down about PA.
And KCM in FL (the real one).
The states have tightened, I do not like the final polls in FL or NC, but am ecstatic about OH and PA so it evens out.
Any state polling from Ras today?
@champion88 (stands for hopeless hater)
fuck off and go to hell you f*** nazi!
P.S. sorry for feeding
Obama just finished voting
Antmatic is the greek god of poll releases.
'champion', did you really want to make yourself the laughing stock of the entire school?
:/
I forgot about inkstain, good point
sim
don't worry - we'll stand in line even if it is hailing palins
Watch for Palin mobs to attack polling places - they can't win so they may go on a rampage.
am i chopped liver?
team -
don't forget lat - she's been here from nearly the beginning -- and sensible!
and funny!
but who i really miss is filistro
Obama & Joe voted
Little Vincent expresses the aspirations of a people who have been maligned through 100s of years of our history and stigmatized for the incomprehensible reason of the color of their skin.
If there is anything to celebrate in an Obama win it is the victory of pluralism in America and our having begun finally to turn the page on the great sin of slavery.
America was built on backs and the lives of the people of Africa. To deny that is to deny history. How wonderful then that one whose hereitage is from that Continent is able to claim the leadership of the the Nation.
Govern well is all we ask!
Wife and I just cast our vote--came home to see Obama vote---the joy in the eyes of the people at his polling place gives you that warm and fuzzy feeling----Let's do some history folks.
Going out to get stuff to make Voice of the Midwests Sweet Potato Pecan Pie
champion88 said...
"So I was right that he voted for him because he is black?"
No.
"did you choose your nickname for any connection with any other 88s by any chance? Not a good number for us left of centre people."
I use that as my screename for gaming.
I got to my polling place at 6 AM in suburban MD. Polls opened at 7. There were about ten people in line in front of me, but by the time I got done voting just a little bit after 7, the line was out the door and wrapped around the parking lot. At least 100 people, maybe more. In the years I've voted at that place, I've never seen more than 20 people in line. If this is an indication of what it will be like all day, it seems the MD Secretary of State may not have been exaggerating with predictions of a possible 85% turnout.
Makes me very proud of our democracy :)
Oh yeah, and GOBAMA!! I'm off to the phonebanks in a little bit.
bredney: a Britney Spears sculpture made of a baguette?
PUMA All-star:
PeteKent
Best Sock Puppet:
PeteKent
Most rambling posts:
PeteKent
reports of long lines in MN
@bush whacked -
Where in the NY ex-urbs are you? Dutchess County here. There were nor real lines at our polling station this morning, but 74 had already voted on the machine I used and that's pretty good for a town this small.
voting taking more than an hour in south Georgia. In 2000, it was only about 45 minutes. Turnout looks to be huge around here.
Best Sock Puppet: He (and his tales about the Marines).
Real Joe's surprise:
He is Alan Turing's computer.
Heavy Turnout in VA
leave Nate alone. He's probably asleep - for the first time in months! Hope he remembered to vote first!
I particularly liked He's story about him being a cook in the Marines!
And I'll never forget someone's comment that it was "wrong on so many levels" LOL
I'm not sure you can dismiss this vote as you do as not predictive.
I'd argue, based on the data for DN:NH, that it's predictive at least for NH. To make it predictive for the nation, we also need data for NH:whole country.
The result 15:6 is 71% or 0.71 democratic share.
1. 0.71 is the most extreme democratic result of ALL the results plotted.
2. For all results plotted, except 2, the democratic share is LOWER in Dixville Notch than the state as a whole.
So Dixville has swung sharply to Democrat, and it's likely that the state as whole is likely to vote Democratic at least as strongly.
Hey Matt, where do you live in Dutchess County? Poughkeepsie here
I'm going to drive some people to the polls, and I'll have a report on the ground from rural PA. Don't hold your breathe for anything exciting.
Hey guys! First time blogger here. Love the site, Nate, Sean, et. al.
Turnout appears to be very high in State College, PA - including promising numbers of students and first-time voters. There are reports of 2+ hour lines, but anecdotally I think the average is about 45 minutes. A republican friend in Suburban Harrisburg (Dauphin County) said he was astounded at the number of first-time voters. Reports are that Cumberland and Dauphin counties might be in play--if so, it's going to be a big Obama win in PA.
11 points anyone?
W.Va. polls open with few problems
@PeteKent
"Little Vincent expresses the aspirations of a people who have been maligned through 100s of years of our history and stigmatized for the incomprehensible reason of the color of their skin.
If there is anything to celebrate in an Obama win it is the victory of pluralism in America and our having begun finally to turn the page on the great sin of slavery.
America was built on backs and the lives of the people of Africa. To deny that is to deny history. How wonderful then that one whose hereitage is from that Continent is able to claim the leadership of the the Nation.
Govern well is all we ask!"
..we are on opposite sides politically (and many comments have been incorrectly attributed to you), however this comment is appreciated, Thank you
I am 19 years-old and just voted for the first time this morning for Obama in NJ! Thank you, 538 for being a huge source of polling statistics throughout this election cycle for me. I encourage people my age to get out there and vote for the person that you personally believe would best run this country, whether it be Democrat, Republican, or Third Party.
it's 8 AM in chicago, give you nate time
Palin arrives in Alaska to cast ballot in election
@Michie
Congratulations. Stay engaged.
Crap, my F5-button just broke off...
My husband and I just got done voting here in fake Virginia. No lines. According to the poll worker, it's been a steady trickle. I was the 250th person they checked off their rolls (3 lines). Interestingly enough, we had the option of doing a paper ballot (which I opted for) or touch screen (which DH did).
We've done our part. The Skins have done their part. Now, if Tim Kaine won't screw us over (reports of 5/7 machines breaking down in Richmond, similar problems in other black voter rich areas), Virginia will go blue.
When we Obamamaniacs were unhappy with Hillary for not quitting, she kept saying it would make Barack a better general election candidate.
Who knew???
I get daily emails from urbandictionary.com. It's just an entertaining piece of nothingness on most days. The posts are always snarky and usually a bit vulgar. But even the most cycnical among us seem to be feeling moved today:
November 04: vote
The best way you have of voicing your opinion in a way that can matter. Nothing's perfect, and there's always going to be mistakes, but there is simply no excuse for not casting a ballot for what you believe in. Take the time to understand the issues and then take the time to vote. Don't let people who aren't going to be around four years from now decide your future. Complaining without voting is worse than any hanging chad.
(Examples)
My conscience is clear because I took the time to vote.
Don't worry about rocking the vote, just vote!
Some voters wait 95 minutes to cast ballot in Downtown Cleveland
What about Sedi?
I think he (or she) is a great poster.
Perso. Republicans holding the perso strings has not gone particularly well the last 30 years.
The news media are jumping all over reports that Obama is down from a 3.5% lead in Ohio to 2% in the last hour. Any info?
Apparently Obama is making a couple of final stops in Indiana and Ohio.
Morning my friends!
I just got back from voting..I was in a sea of white. I sea of white people and white hair. My 97% white town filled with old people isn't much to go by, though. It made me a little nervous but then I remember that this is a county that went for Bush 70% and know its' representatives are not what the majority of the country are.
I shall now read back/forward/sideways and see how others voting have gone. Hopefully there was more hope at your alls.
The Clintons Vote
The New York Senator and former president cast their ballots at their local polling place in Chappaqua, New York around 9:15 am ET
Tim Kaine's inept handing of the high vo9ter turnout is gonna cost Obama Virginia.
@mustang - we are in Pawling.
Just voted blue in Louisiana. Long lines, but incredible enthusiasm. A voting machine broke, and the State had two guys there to fix it in 10 minutes. There is something in the air today.
littlevincent
thanks for the great post -- says so much about what a great day this is
I'm so enjoying this thread. All the comments from folks in other countries, all the poll reports, the enthusiasm, the jokes, and what this election means to people.
I've been reading off and on since 5:30 this morning. You're a good group to have coffee with. (most of you anyway -- 98% with margin of error at 3pts.)
;)
@nola
I love the smell of napalm in the morning.... It smells like victory.
Porridge - Doesn't make sense, how can Obama's "lead" have decreased in Ohio, there have been no polls out in the last hour and votes haven't been counted
@littlevincent
Amen!
I'm honestly think Hillary has a shot at the presidency, hopefully, in 2016. Being in her sixties won't be an issue.
Did I miss the Real Joe Surprise??
@ant...it's probably little joe comparing the two zogby polls...
zenu -- What state do you live in?
Update from Ohio. The local polling location is pretty busy though moving well. One poll worker commented that it seemed to her as if it should be the end of the day as much business as they'd done. No previous experience from me to know how normal this turnout is.
That said, I voted for the socialist, muslim, terrorist-loving, tax-and-spend, unamerican, liberal leftist.
God I love my country!
from Ras this AM:
52-46
Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters cast their ballots early this year and those voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin. Among those who will actually cast their ballots on Tuesday, the candidates are essentially even.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Antmatic, that's how the British media are reporting it. The way they're breathlessly saying the race is tightening, you'd think it was breaking news.
That RAS infomration is great. I now have no doubt there will a landslide in America.
tightening
LOL
sphincter tightening...stranger danger...strangre danger...
I promise not to say anything nasty about any american ever again, if you vote Obama! Cross my heart!
Long-time lurker, first time poster.
We live on the North Side of Pittsburgh in a mixed neighborhood. Had about a 45 minute wait to vote this AM; fellow in line with us said he'd been voting here for 30 years and had never seen a line that long. He was a Republican for Obama, BTW.
Many, many African-Americans; far more than we'd ever seen there for any other election. Not unexpected, I guess, but still great to see.
I choked up a bit when I hit the "vote" button. I'm 50 and can remember when n****** was a commonly-used word. When MLK preached, and how he died. Hell, when it was big news that a "Negro" was for the first time a lead character in a TV series (Diahann Carroll in Julia, if you're keeping score at home). I truly never thought this day would come.
Thanks to everyone here for keeping me sane, if sleepless, for the last month. And, thanks to Nate's ancestors for bequeathing him such a big brain
Now I'm off to GOTV.
Welcome home, America. We've been waiting up for you.
Did I miss the Real Joe Surprise??
Second. What was the surprise?
Hillary's prez chances are probably zilch. After running a really poor campaign, the big donors will be reluctant to throw more money at her.
I have long been a Hillary fan. I didn't like her much during the primaries and was very surprised she had such a poor organization. I appreciate her coming back from such a huge disappointment and working hard to help Obama.
wv: thornism --- hmmmmmmm
Real Joe
where are you? and
where is your surprise?
Will there be a special thread for it?
I think we have all learned that when a campaign is saying "The race is tightening," it means they are in serious trouble.
It
In the long sweep of life and human history we are but grains of sand, nanoseconds of time in a Universe created by God.
Here at 538 we have engaged in navel gazing and disective anlaysis of the most intense kind that we often miss the forest for the trees.
To me this puts an Obama win in a context with which I can deal with it: a speedbump along the road of a people aspiring to indeed be His Kingdom.
How inhuman I would be not to feel the affirmation of Little Vincent who himself is entitled to greatness even as these others pass before us, cabbages and Kings.
Then there is Michie, casting a first vote at 19! The promise of youth, a young citizen brought into our Democracy.
It is of these, the Michies the Little Vincents, the DCMs, the Kozs, the Sedis, Inkstains, Judas Priests, Counsellor Orbens, the Sock Puppets, Trolls and provocateurs of whom the fabric of society is knit.
Sadly, many have learned the habit of shouting down and simply deriding thought they are opposed to, but each thread of argument must be followed and respected as being part of the grat comforting quilt that is American Democracy.
America: Land of Historical Greatness and Future Promise.
Cherish it and nurture it and hand it on in better shape to our children.
eve--
I am in Maryland so obviously it makes no difference, Obama will win here and by a large margin.
I just want to see it close in my county, or be at least 60/40 because republicans run everything and people think our county is Alabama. It's ridiculous.
Things I was surprised about this election:
1. No major October surprise. The Obama "redistribution" audio doesn't count.
2. Nothing from Bin Ladin, Al Qaeda, etc. I
'Surprise' will be revealed in the evening
Turnout may rival Carter era
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/11/the-first-hard.html
zenu-- I understand. I live in Texas, but am hopeful that at least my county will go for Obama.
Pete Kent
Great sentiments - and then you went and mentioned forests again! (just joking).
I don't agree with your politics but you deserve some kudos for your posts so far today.
folks, there's a Senate thread now.
@Real Joe
What time, if you know?
new thread
I'm not a Hillary fan, but since the Democratic convention, her respectability across ther board has grown, her favoarbles are the highest they've ever been. If she were to become Obama's Secretary of State at some point, that'll increase her chances.
Also, if a 72 year old with health problems has a shot, she definately has a shot.
Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher was stopped by two Toledo police officers after he was clocked going 50mph in a 35 mph zone on Dorr St. last week.
______________________________
I live right off of Dorr St.
Mrs. B -- I take issue with your post: All my posts have been great and wise. Ahem! People just are not thinking right this year.
Trust me, Obama, if he governs, as I suspect he wants to will wreck his Presidency in a few short years and he will be like Carter -- an unpleasant blip on a long line of historical improvement for America.
Say what you want about george bush, but he confronted th transcenant eveil of our time and has gravely wounded it. I fear what kind of steward of our security he will be.
Radical Islam (as opposed to the Muslim faith itself as to which I see and feel my spiritual connection) must be confronted and destroyed. You are kidding yourself if you think they want anything less for you!
Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?
We know more about Joe than Barack!
In reading the comments, I n oted several that mentioned a "christmas morning excitement". Well I must admit that even an old (71) fart like me sort of has that feeling, but then why shouldn't we? We are getting an enormous present today, we are getting our country, our self respect, the respect of the rest of the world back. we are getting the future of our children, our grandchildren,in my case great grandchildren returned to us, so it is a time for rejoicing.
At my age with relatively few years left, I now feel that I can leave the stage knowing the the future of
my grands and great grands looks more secure. I really think that we are going to see a whole new vision of what our country can be and what can be accomplished. I feel more positive for the future than I have in Years. Every time I listen to the one speak and listen to his words, I realize what a truly transcendent and visionary leader he is rather than being a mere politician. The messages of hope and togetherness that echo FDR and JFK during times of great peril.So tonight let let not just party, but have a true celebration of the return of constitutional governing, of rule of law, of competent government and more importantly hope for a better future.
Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?
We know more about Joe than Barack!
-------------------
Shut up you racist.
As an addenduum let me say that since I live in dark(in more ways than one) red state of SC, I am giong to have to depend on those of you in the battleground states to help an old man attain his dreams, so get out there and work and vote for the ones of us who can't directly determine the outcome.
I was determined however to cast my vote for Obama even though I knew I would be on the minority, but I was determined to be able to say that I voted for history and that I voted on the right side of history.
@Grandpa John:
Everyone should read your posts and save them for their grandkids. This is what the election is all about.
I live in a red state too (louisiana), but I will toast you tonight as we celebrate a truly national victory.
Voted for THAT ONE in the red western suburbs of Chicago. I was in line before 6 am and when I left at 6:15, the line was out the door.
Just wanted to say THANK YOU to everyone this morning posting their thoughts and personal experiences. The posts by LittleVincent and Cataplexis made me tear up and that does not happen often. Thank you and LET'S GET THIS DONE!!
First time poster - long time lurker and addict. Just some quick reassurance for anyone getting concerned by reports in the British media - don't. Their coverage has been incredibly superficial and lazy - the only upside is that it forced me and others to check out the web - and discover 538. Good luck America, we've all got our fingers crossed.
No, DN isn't predictive -- but that's because the town has never voted for a Democrat before, at least in the modern era. (Wikipedia only has data going back to 1960.) Clinton came in 4th there in 1992, behind Perot and Marrou.
Looking at the internals, Registrations by party in DN were 5 Dems, 4 GOPers, and the rest independent. That means that 10 independents broke for Obama, against 2 for McCain.
@ MysticLaker
I am a scientist so of course I am aware of the importance of sample size. Another way to apply sample size to this particular discussion is to look at the fact that this sample includes 20+ separate election results in this town, and in over 90% of them, the republican has not only won, but dominated. The result that this year, the town has overwhelmingly thrown its support behind Obama is statistically significant in light of historical results and perhaps a sign of the results to come. There are myriad reasons why this result could be skewed, but it is a surprising exception to the historical data, and worth noting.
Suggestion:
we ought to have webcams of all polling stations coded by precinct number.
Then voters can take a peek to see whether there are lines and decide whether this is a good time to go there. Sure, it cuts both ways, but for people who only have a certain amount of time it doesn't make sense to waste it if it's obvious they won't make it in the time they have (say, lunch or before work).
Someone said earlier: long lines are like a poll tax for the poor. I agree.
I wouldn't say Dixville Notch is "not predictive" in *any* sense. As I read the numbers, the town has historically INVARIABLY gone for the Republican candidate by a 2-1 or 3-1 margin. That this same town should now go for O by 15-6 definitely shows that something is afoot. But you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment