In a word: No. There's no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates In Dixville Notch and their performances in the rest of New Hampshire -- never mind the rest of the country:
Still, you'd rather be up 15-6 than down, wouldn't you?
11.04.2008
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
@ 12:51 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
571 comments
the second town's results are in
Hart's Location, NH
Obama: 17
McCain: 10
Paul: 2
http://www.hartslocation.com/
ok then why are we talking about it? :)
Yeah baby! This thing is over!
I heard people are picking outfits to wear to show their support for the campaign, check it out, crazy what people are doing!!!!
http://www.pikkee.com/outfit_tasks/gallery/2
Nate, are we getting our Senate update tonight? I'm sleepy.
Sure, it's not predictive. But that's 15 more votes for Obama!
Doesn't matter if it's predictive. It's symbolic.
I would take this as predictive of Obama's forthcoming landslide, as a city(/town/village/inkstain) voting Democratic for the first time in 40 years.
Who can I send my resume to at FiveThirtyEIght?
Predictive or not, I think it's a good sign that Dixville has flipped so significantly since 2004. :) Go NH!
(now seeing the Wright anti-Obama ad for the... 20th time tonight between CNN and NBC. Yikes.)
Dixville Notch (whats a notch?) not withstanding, I have to say I love that leedle teeny pie slice representing 1.9% of McCain's chances.
wv: We are gonna throw a ruckrus tomorrow if things go well after the polls close.
Exciting news! So predictive and foreshadowing and all that. Yay and whatnot.
Even if it is not predictive, it is symbolic of our nation demanding change! Get ready for the landslide storm....
God I love this site. GO OBAMA!
It's o.k. if the results are not predictive. It's fun anyhow
I NOTICED THAT THERE WASN'T ON MENTION OF THE GALLUP NATIONAL POLLS.
YOU KNOW WHAT I THINK? I THINK YOU ARE FUCKIN' CLUELESS. IN FACT, YOU'RE SO FUCKIN' CLUELESS THAT I AM STARTING TO WONDER JUST WHO THE HELL YOU'RE ON THE PAYROLL FOR.
NOT THE DEMS....I'LL TELL YOU THAT MUCH
I don't know, that looks like you might make a coherent trendline from those data points. Got an R value?
In the primary Obama won by far most of the votes there. Wasn't predictive then was it?
Sounds great.
By the way, if anyone knows where I can send a resume, let me know too....
For those who missed it the first time...
Palin on SNL tonight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-i9tTdZn6KA
I called the RNC ht tonigand told them the wright ad was wrong.
I put it on mute when it comes on.
Is the Zogby poll out? Or was yesterday it?
Dixville may not decide it, but the artists and musicians might.
Check out Obama on the Arts:
http://fullbodytransplant.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/obama-for-the-arts/
We can do this.
Yes we can.
The Notch is worth 21 votes and that has to be statistically significant sample of NH population.
But seriously, the data in the graph trend somewhat, excluding that outlier on the far right.
Re: Forthcoming Landslide.
I am fucking thrilled. Tomorrow night at 7pm Pacific Time, I leave work and head straight for the polls. After voting HELL NO on Proposition 8 and HELL YES on Barack Obama, I will head home.
Then, it's time for drinking some Bailey's & Coffee, munching on some snacks, flipping between CNN, MSNBC and FOXNews (it's fun to watch bad people cry), and clicking reload on 538.com. In other words, a good ol' celebration of life and triumph.
The instant any network officially announces Barack Obama is our next president, I'll stick my head out the window and let out a "HELL YEAH". Then, run around the apartment community yelling the same in a tipsy and/or drunken state, all depending on how much Bailey's has been ingested by that point.
This thing is over, like when the Yankees were up 3-0 on the Red Sox in 2004.
Scratch that.
Still, it's looking really good, and until it doesn't...
I am fucking thrilled.
I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion, Nate... because it looks like for the most part, Dixville Notch doesn't go Democratic except for one exception. What happened in the rest of NH in that year?
Zogby did "Battlegrounds" again:
EC
O: 311
M: 174
Toss: 53
Final Poll
O: 54.1
M: 42.7
PA
O: 51.2
M: 41.4
OH
O: 49.4
M: 47.4
VA
O: 51.7
M: 45.3
NV
O: 53.2
M: 42.4
FL
O: 49.2
M: 48.0
MO
O: 48.8
M: 48.8
NC
O: 49.1
M: 49.5
IN
O: 45.1
M: 50.4
assholeabove-
Gallup was out this morning, it was in his PM update. Now log off and never come back.
Its all up hill from here.....;)
It can be seen as predictive in the sense, that it is the first time in 40 years that the town has gone For a Dem. So perhaps an indicator of a good nigh.
I don't get it.
rastaman said...
I NOTICED THAT THERE WASN'T ON MENTION OF THE GALLUP NATIONAL POLLS.
Gallup (10/31 - 11/02 / LV):
O:55
M:44
BITE ME! CHUMP!
Oh my God!
Was that dialogue on SNL unscripted? Scared the bejeesus out of me. looked like the real Palin coming out.
adation : broadcasting rev wright ads on election eve in the hope it will swing the election.
Does Palin come on SNL the second hour?
Cause so far it just re-runs of past skits.
Those Zogby numbers are OK for Obama. Looks like Zogby put his finger on the scale on that national number, lets hope he is right. I have little faith in Zogby, but...
I'm glad I'm not the only political junkie who is still up obsessing over this election.
Hurray for Dixville, Notch. I am sick of calling New Hampshire. I think the whole Commonwealth of Massachusetts has spent the last month calling New Hampshire. And maybe it worked?
YES WE CAN!A
Rastaman is just tryin to get some stuff started.
Don't feed him.
Although I must admit, he IS hilarious!
Just watched the SNL Palin thing. Someone should've mentioned to Sarah that joking about retribution Jan. 20th ain't funny if people believe you'd actually do it.
Stop overreacting guys, Palin wasn't scary, it was a script. >_>
We don't need to worry about her taking over, Obama is our next president.
rastamen
Nate's words :
"--> A couple of the national polls have now started to predict how undecided voters will behave and allocate them between the two major-party candidates. I use the versions of these surveys before any such allocations are made, as from my point of view it isn't the pollster's job to get into the prediction business (our model has its own ideas about how to handle undecideds)."
This site is simply superb. I like these tidbits of information - fun, great, and perhaps psychologically important - but always accompanied with the rational analysis that tells us how much weight (if at all) we should give this piece of information.
Nate, what do you think will be the effect of the Wright ads/extreme negative ads of the past couple of days?
I just saw Palin on SNL. She was flat.
No, it isn't predictive -- that's the whole point. Dixville Notch hasn't voted for a democrat since Hubert Humphrey in '68. Sign of a looming democratic tsunami? Maybe, maybe not, but sure feels nice to see it anyway.
WV: BRANGNAL, as in: "Obama supporters are BRANGNAL their friends to the polls."
I get it now.
DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. — Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on.
I look at it this way... if Zogby had ANYTHING, any SHRED of insider information that McCain was leading in ANY significant way... he is SUCH an attention whore that he would be ALL OVER IT and putting that into his final numbers.
He's shit for polling, but the guy knows when to be on the right side of history.
2 for Ron Paul!! W00t!!!
Sam,
From the results we've seen so far, I would say the ads haven't done anything for McCain...
Even though this town is largely symbolic - the wingnut looney fringe is freaking out by it - and are now depending on prayer - guess that "community organizer" that was so ridiculed is simply kicking their asses
nc moderate,
We know it's a script. But don't you agree it would have been a lot different if Tine Fey had done it? Palin's words ringed true. The determination shining through. Just as if what she said she would do sounded something she would naturally do..
Read the account of the city council who got her into politics when she became mayor and decided to redecorate her office for $50000.
I am not scared of her becoming VP. I am scared of her as a person, vile, and hateful.
Oh, and Zogby's poll boasts an 11 point lead, but he is doing WORSE in Zogby's battleground polls than he was yesterday.
Anyone see Roves final map? He has it a 'blowout' for the dems...but doesnt give O MT,NC,MO,GA,IN. I only mention him because I remember his 2006 predictions and he was way off. Im feeling 378ev-despite Nates great math here. Math cant measure emotion.
I don't think Palin is vile and hateful. I just think she's a dumb bimbo that has no place in politics, much less being a governor.
People were saying Bush was going to rig up a stunt to become a dictator, but did that happen?
Your graph of votes shows that Dixville, with one exception, votes more heavily for the Republican than for NH.
That would suggest that NH will not end up in McCain's column.
It's 1:10 AM, the polls open in 5 hours in my state, and I'm on 538. LOL...It rhymes. Glad to see the hopeful start to an Obama win tonight. Gotta get some rest. I have a LOOOOOONNNNNNNNGGGGGG day ahead of me. VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE. 18-30 year olds - PLEASE VOTE. Don't slack off this year. VOTE!!!
Good night.
Zogby gets final poll in?
"Obama 50.9%, McCain 43.8%
UTICA, New York - As Election Day nears in the U.S. Presidential race, Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 7.1 points over Republican John McCain, up from a 5.7 point advantage in yesterday's report, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
"
This thing is over, like when the Yankees were up 3-0 on the Red Sox in 2004.
Baseball has no clock.
The election does.
Bad analogy.
But then, I am a Red Sox-Obama fan. :)
As Dixville goes, so does the nation. Or Missouri? Or Ohio? or Maine?
Anyway, it's a good start indeed.
Cleveland Rally: Barack and Bruce
VOTE and GOTV!
Good night!
Zogby is showing an Obama landslide? Ugh, we're all screwed. Here's to waiting for Rasmussen tomorrow. ;)
People like Bush and Palin are harmless idiots, you just have to keep them away from power. Sadly, we failed to do that with Bush.
Getting 10 out of the 11 independent voters can't hurt! OBAMA!
An OBAMA NATION AIN'T NO ABOMINATION!
Anyone from North Carolina still hanging around here late night?
WV: When Sarah P is just drunk enough to admit the truth, "Yeah, 'emilve'"
Dyslexia is a hell of a disability.
Finally, the final Zogby writeup (w/o tables):
"Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Final: Obama in Double-Digit Lead, 54% to 43%
UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll -- up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday's report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.
Pollster John Zogby: "Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change."
If this turns out to be the stunning victory for Obama, he will have done it with large leads among independents (24 points), women (20 points), moderates (32%) and those who registered to vote in the last six months (30 points). He also wins 91% support from Democrats and leads in nearly every age group with the exception of those age 55 to 69, where McCain leads by just a half point.
McCain holds the support of 85% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives. He also leads by 7 points among whites."
April said...
It's 1:10 AM, the polls open in 5 hours in my state, and I'm on 538.
You'd better head to the polls now and get in line.
WV: kounti... We will be kounti the votes for days.
The battleground polls worry me, as did the Ras polls earlier. We must vote! This is not over!
nc mod,
Didn't that happen? remind me again?
Illegal wiretapping with retroactive immunity? Torture authorized by WH memos? Faked WMD documentation for justifying a war?
The dumb Palin's just a farce. She's far from dumb. She's a determinate woman with tons of talent. You will see her more often. And guess what, she's here to stay.
Zogby's final is out, Obama by 11.5%, 54% of the vote.
FINAL ZOGBY POLL just posted:
O - 54.1%
M - 42.7%
Obama by 11.5!!!!!!
ANd he didn;t even both with a write-up to accompany it!
To hell with it.
I want Texas, too.
Let's get greedy.
SLAM DUNK.
I love it.
Congratulations to President Barack Hussein Obama.
How special must a candidate be to overcome that middle name?
Very.
Ok, this made me laugh:
Free Republic has a thread up using that electoral map from a poll in 2006 asking who would win between McCain and Obama - before anyone knew who the heck Obama was. It has Obama winning only Illinois, Hawaii and DC, losing to McCain 510-28. The whole map is red except Illinois and two areas you can barely see. Funny enough by itself.
But on FR somebody posts it with the title :SurveyUSA predicts results for all 50 states.
Clearly a joke, I assumed. But the first responses cracked me up:
1. "Holy crap. Tell me this is not a joke, please."
2. "I'm stunned. This is a Reaganesque landslide for McCain. Its wishful thinking. "
"Wishful thinking." Hilarious. Talk about your understatements.
It'll feel good to not be the laughingstock of the world for a change. It's been eight years, after all.
nc mod
Why can't she be a dumb bimbo that has no place in politics who also happens to be vile and hateful?
Honestly, that seems like the most likely truth.
nc moderate- Bush certainly HAS been harmful! I dont have enough fingers and toes to count all the ways....
Palin will crash and burn after this turn on the national stage.
I noticed in Zogby's table that the entry after Obama and McCain for today is labelled only "Other", not "Others/Not sure" like he did for other days.
Not sure, then, if that means he is allocating undecideds (as opposed to those saying they will vote for Nader, Barr, etc.) to O and M.
I've said this a few times, but Zogby makes me nervous. I will never forgive him for getting my hopes up high on Election Day in 2004, when he indicated there would be a Kerry blow-out. At least his state polls tonight are mostly tighter than the prior night.
"The dumb Palin's just a farce. She's far from dumb. She's a determinate woman with tons of talent. You will see her more often. And guess what, she's here to stay."
The gift that keeps on giving.
If only she could be the future of the Republican Party. I wish. The only place we will be seeing her on Fox News, maybe to replace that ridiculous Greta van Susteren.
Not sure why all these pollsters who had it 'tightening' this week, suddenly jumped back the final day?
Dartmouth student here. My "Elections and Voter Behavior" professor drove to Dixville Notch tonight to watch the first votes get counted. Pretty ridiculous.
I'll be up in 5 hours to vote when the polls open, but I'm having a hard time sleeping now in anticipation. NH goes big for Obama.
You should see the agonizing over the early NH results at freerepublic. They're worse than the concern trolls here.
She's a certain kind of dumb. Not a hateful dumb, just a dumb dumb. And she doesn't seem like a bigot or anything, even if her views are incredibly disagreeable.
Also, to the other guy, I don't mind seeing a lot more of Palin. She's pretty interesting, I'll give her that. But make sure she studies up on material before she even considers running for the 2012 nomination, because if she doesn't she'll get laughed out of the debates.
Perspective :
Obama's words:
"There had been a moment during the breakfast meeting, though, after the backslapping and the small talk and when all of us were seated, with Vice-President Cheney eating his eggs benedict impassively and Karl Rove at the far end of the table discreetly checking his BlackBerry, that I had witnessed a different side of the man.
The president had begun to discuss his second-term agenda, mostly a reiteration of his campaign talking points – the importance of staying the course in Iraq and renewing the Patriot Act, the need to reform social security and overhaul the tax system, his determination to get an up-or-down vote on his judicial appointees – when suddenly it felt as if somebody in a back room had flipped a switch.
The president’s eyes became fixed; his voice took on the agitated, rapid tone of someone neither accustomed to nor welcoming interruption; his easy affability was replaced by an almost messianic certainty. As I watched my mostly Republican Senate colleagues hang on his every word, I was reminded of the dangerous isolation that power can bring, and I appreciated the wisdom of America’s founding fathers in designing a system to keep power in check. "
coacat:the next gen of lolcats
nc moderate- Bush certainly HAS been harmful!
Exactly. We Americans failed (twice) in giving him the highest authority in the land.
"The battleground polls worry me, as did the Ras polls earlier. We must vote! This is not over!"
Ok, I am officially laughing at any fellow democrats who are still worried.
Sure, yeah, vote. Of course. But stop with the silly "battleground polls worry me" stuff.
If you want to worry, worry about Prop 8 or house or senate races or something, stop wasting concern over the presidential race. It's not helping anyone.
Perception of a blowout hurts McCain way, way, way more than it hurts Obama.
And, of course, the hand-wringing helps McCain more than it helps Obama.
If the nation senses a landslide, people will still show up for Obama, but the losing side's voters will stay home in droves.
So PLEASE stop the excessive worrying.
Dixville Notch means it's a tiny notch in the wall of the White Mountains. The only habitable place for a ways.
Final IBD/TIPP poll:
Obama: 51.5%
McCain: 44.3%
It looks like both McCain and Obama are borrowing slogans from Bob the Builder. While Obama's supporters are cheering "Yes We Can!", McCain campaign officials are now asking themselves "Can We Fix It?"
Does no one else realize that this is GREAT NEWS!!!!!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!
Dylan from Dartmouth-
be sure to bring 10 of your friends with you!
Lots of us are too wired to sleep-thank god for msnbc-schuester(sp?)looks like he is ready to jump out of his skin.
"Not a hateful dumb, just a dumb dumb"
Not hateful? Are you kidding me? She was introduced to America as the wicked witch from Alaska and has been mean and nasty ever since.
I actually think that the McCain camp made a huge mistake by introducing her to America in this way. America does not mind stupid (See W.). But, America does not like stupid and MEAN. Sara Palin is stupid and mean.
"Perception of a blowout hurts McCain way, way, way more than it hurts Obama."
Yeah, but the reality of the impending blowout hurts McCain much more than any perception. In the end, it's the actual numbers that count, and people are (rightfully) pissed off at the GOP. McCain isn't going to win, whatever people's perception today.
@SkyDog
No fair! It's 1:30am here in PA and my kids are asleep. I just snorted *loudly* at the Bob the Builder. Is that original? Awesome. Must tell husband tomorrow at 6:30am when we get up to GTFOAV!
wv: cotious -- the kind of owptimism we have here in Philly...
All this talk about these two small areas that have swung dramatically to Obama...
I wonder what Loving County, TX will look like...
Lol, John you're absolutely right. However I admire your powers over your emotions if you're able to keep your stress under control.
Anyone else a little concerned over democrat overreaching if they do take control...
These last minute adjustments by pollsters are hilarious.
How many 'final' polls have Obama at less than 50%?
Final Zogby: Obama +11. Where's the Drudge siren for that one?
Our Nate on Huff Post!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/rove-nate-silver-maps-pre_n_140752.html
OR CLICK HERE
Drudge is frantically searching for a poll that shows McCain competitive...
Well, there's always that AOL poll.
Democrats would have to overreach a pretty damn far way in order to make up for legalization of torture (which, ya know, is a war crime.)
And that's before anything else.
The Geneva Conventions are US Law. Condoning torture is breaking US Law.
nc mod
congrats on being the center of attention for the last few. if you're ever in wilmington, beers on me. I still say that Palin is a special mix of both exceptionally dumb and spectacularly hateful, but that's the beauty of a true democracy, right? everyone's opinion counts. Maybe some day. Regarding our dear Sarah, I think Tina Fey said it best with the phrase "a little bit of high school bitchy."
I really, sincerely do hope she runs in 2012, not because of the spanking she would receive in a general, but for the absolute and perfect amusement I would receive from watching the Rep primary. She would, well, words aren't even coming to me. God I love beer.
What the hell is a "candstio"
I'm not even trying.
RE: bringing 10 friends to the polls with me.
Yep, that's the plan. There are 8 of us currently planning on meeting up and heading to the polls together when they open - then GOTV afterward.
I'm so excited to have a president I can be proud of.
Yep, some pollsters are coming out with some dramatic numbers. One must wonder why. Is that IBD/TIPP with Barack over 50 for real?
I'm ready for a landslide. I sent a reminder email to everyone (okay, I left out that Republican cousin) in my address book to vote, and I got back an email from most of them saying they already did--and I know who they voted for. I know Arkansas only has 6 electoral votes, but if Obama had spent even a little time there, or dispatched Bill to the state, he could've won here. It'll be closer than anyone's expecting (if anyone's expecting anything about AR, lol). Could've added to that landslide. Oh, well--in 2012!
Let's hope this is a sign of things, much better things, yet to come for us all today!
chi,
It's on the website. Just bear in mind it's an estimate.
Holy Christ, my WV is "tards." I won't even try...
It's real. http://www.tipponline.com
These pollsters are pathetic. How embarrassing. They all correct to a big obama margin right before the results get tallied. I'm not saying I don't believe that is accurate... I do. But I don't believe for a SECOND that this universal movement towards obama is based on any shift in the electorate.
Funny...
Who would've thought...
That after all this polling...
That dailykos would be the tracker that gives McCain his best result.
I'm pretty sure that the IDP/TIPP poll was the only/last national poll that had the big O at under 50, and it appears as though they have reversed course.
Can anyone confirm?
monsa
still too drunk to be witty.
seriously, that's how drunk works.
sorry.
People who keep talking about Sarah Palin's future as "leader of the GOP" amaze me. How in the hell anyone could be looking at Sarah Palin as anything other than a mistaken campaign ploy at this point is bewildering to me.
Yes she's been amusing. But I'm ready for her to go.
Palin on SNL tonight
One wonders why IBD/TIPP allocated undecideds more than 2-1 in Obama's favor... especially after all the schmucks in the McCain camp have been insisting that those voters were a lock for JMac.
There must be some McCain supporters screaming "traitor" right now...
About the poll alignment:
Here's my theory, to save time, they all call the same people.
WV: MISTR ... and God help the MISTR that comes between me and my Candidate.
It just goes to show you...don't pay attention to the national trackers until the final 3 days. Only watch state polls.
But lol @ dailykos giving the best results for McCain. wtf. It's like Research 2000 is trying to cover their ass, but they didn't realize it really IS going to be an Obama blowout. I expect a huge Obama result tomorrow.
and so, good night
today. we will vote
I have enjoyed the exchange of ideas here
I hope that each of us will go forth and do the work that is required to unite the states of America.
I have read the posts of PeteKent and Assmole, etc.
Please be Americans.
I have never asked you to be quiet.
I ask that whatever happens today, you use whatever political or personal prowess to keep this country intact and moving forward.
In the words of the Dead,
"What a long strange trip it's been"
Jan
alison b,
Yeah, I thought of it a while back, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone else had the same thought at some time or another.
Isn't the more interesting question whether it is predictive of NH? Any sense of that?
The change from 2000 to 2004 track state results for NH pretty well . . .
People were saying Bush was going to rig up a stunt to become a dictator, but did that happen?
Nc Moderate shut UP!
has the fat lady started singing? no!
but we have combat troops assigned to the north american theater for crowd control...
http://www.democracynow.org/blog/2008/10/2/amy_goodmans_latest_column_invasion_of_the_sea_smurfs
Geraldine Ferraro(well, I guess Mondale) knocked women back 20 years. Palin(well, I guess McCain) knocked them back 10 more.
Ira,
I think that was the point Nate was making - that it isn't predictive.
Still, that swing makes me feel good...
"In the end, it's the actual numbers that count, and people are (rightfully) pissed off at the GOP. McCain isn't going to win, whatever people's perception today."
Totally agree. I just thing it's worth pointing out that a lot of people think they are helping with the false urgency. I think they think that because they are emulating the campaign itself.
But they didn't notice that the campaign shifted into accepting, even playing into, the blowout narrative several days ago. As much as they possibly could without getting called presumptuous.
Motivation = great.
Concern over these fantastic, fantastic polls = not great.
LIFE IS GOOD!!!
Now, about that $%*&## Prop 8...
War profiteering is also treason.
Something had to happen for many of these pollsters to have such a dramatic shift on the final day. I'm curious what it was.
If McCain wins, bad things will happen. Especially with that polling consensus.
nc mod
where are you in the state?
specifics aren't necessary, just curious.
When JMac chose Sarah Palin, he assured that he would be "putolast" when the final electoral votes were counted.
Ha. Witty over cam Dogfish Head 90 minute.
Unless that wasn't witty.
In which case, f*@k you.
Woo hoo! I'm going to celebrate with some Dixville Nachos.
"Schmuck", describes everyone around McCain. I believe the undecideds will break heavily for Barack. But hey, I may be biased. I am an obamaniac. ;-)
Something had to happen for many of these pollsters to have such a dramatic shift on the final day. I'm curious what it was.
They all wanted to either be right together or wrong together, pretty much. Insignificantly seperate themselves by single points, so if by a chance it does come out that way, they can claim "most accurate pollster", like TIPP.
emonokari,
Well, for one thing, none of the trackers (that I know of, anyway) made an attempt to allocate undecided voters until now.
These pollsters want to be right; they want the reputation of being "most accurate pollster of 2008." And it's hard to do that when you're projecting Obama with 49% of the vote...
WV: stralli... I was stralli in de park one day/In de merry merry month of May
I actually suspect Palin has some severe psychiatric problems, starting with narcissistic personality disorder, which gives me some sympathy for her, and more for those around her :/ Doesn't mean she's not scary though. Those that want her absolutely deserve to get her ;)
Nate, go to bed. You've got some hardcore commentating to do tomorrow! Get some rest man!
Now, about that $%*&## Prop 8...
The "No on 8" have been very compelling, they quote Obama and Schwarzenegger.
But, the last time we voted on it, it passed by 60%. It's going to be close.
josh,
Read my lips: Sarah Palin is fading into obscurity.
I'm in Wake County. You?
Nate Silver doesn't sleep. He feeds on a supply of numeric power...
... and beer.
Does anyone know what percentage of Oregon votes were returned prior to election day in 2004? They are only at about 64% of 2004 as of right now.
Is it feasible that many of these undecideds (soft R's) were giving McCain/Palin every last possible chance to try and convince them they wouldn't be like Bush? Yet, at the end, they just weren't convinced?
"Lol, John you're absolutely right. However I admire your powers over your emotions if you're able to keep your stress under control."
The stress has been an undercurrent for a long, long time. For me it just manifests in different areas.
There's a ton to be worried about, but you have to work very, very hard to find cause for concern in Obama's chances.
That specifically I haven't been much worried about since he chose Joe Biden.
"Anyone else a little concerned over democrat overreaching if they do take control..."
I don't think so. Too many moderates.
If I was McCain I would've bashed Bush every day. Screw the base, they were going to vote for you regardless.
I never got the "appeal to the base" pick. McCain CLEARLY wasn't in any danger of losing it, yet he still wasted a slot that could've helped him in a swing state, or gain more respect.
Hell, if he wanted a woman, he could've picked Olympia Snowe. That would be a formidable ticket.
Well, as Pete and Mule can verify, I think it's been clear that through thick and thin, through rain, sleet and snow, and come hell or high water, the denizens of 538 have never flinched - never shown one iota of doubt - in the infallible genius of one man - and of course, I refer to the great, the inimitable
JOHN ZOGBY
Now that's he called the race at 54 to 42.7, I will like sleep like a baby tonight
... assuming I take 2 or 3 ambiens.
I thought you guys might like this commercial if you haven't seen it already. Truly empowering... I can't stop watching it, haha!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OofHuLW6xdM
"Perception of a blowout hurts McCain way, way, way more than it hurts Obama.
And, of course, the hand-wringing helps McCain more than it helps Obama."
Couldnt have said it better myself John. I had to stop visiting another site over the excessive handwringing. And I repeatedly argued against this whole "tightening of the polls is good" meme. At best its a wash.
"The "No on 8" have been very compelling, they quote Obama and Schwarzenegger."
I've been getting some really awful fliers with a 8 by 10 of Obama on the front that says "I'm against gay marriage. Yes on Prop 8."
Really sleazy stuff since Obama is on record as opposing Prop 8.
"But, the last time we voted on it, it passed by 60%. It's going to be close."
Yeah. And if it passes it will probably be due, ironically, to increased minority turnout to vote for Obama. Sad.
Everybody needs to feel better than somebody.
NC moderate,
I get the sense that McCain's a bit of a prima donna... he doesn't like to share the limelight with someone who is his equal.
Look at the other people we're told he seriously considered for VP: Lieberman, Romney, and Pawlenty. Toadies. I think the McCain crew figured Palin would be a good toady who could also draw in some Clintonites. Little did they know that Sarah would steal the show - and do so in a way that did them no political good.
On, Prop 8, I got robocalls from Danny Glover and Magic Johnson requesting a no on 8 vote. Ive been disheartened by the involvement of black churches in the yes on 8 campaign. The latest Field results showed 49 for 43 against among AAs. I hope the final results are different
Well, I'm off to bed now. Tomorrow I cast my vote for Obama, Dole, and Perdue.
Wilmington.
Must be exciting as hell up there, based on the incredible action that the Obama camp has put together in little Wilmington, NC.
Loving all this, but I have class in 7 hours, so I'm out. After which I will spend roughly 6 hours knocking on doors.
Hungover.
Like, really hungover probably.
Do your part, please.
I'm begging now.
Knock on a door, drive a neighbor or co-worker to the polls, have a family member declared mentally incompetent and vote in their name, whatever it takes. This is not the time to celebrate, this is the time to put down the bottle (after one last big, decisive drink) and make a difference.
Seriously, I'm begging. Like, hands and knees.
I'll see you all tomorrow.
OMG! watching SNL in Oregon, and they just showed the Rev Wright add.
Nasty buggers...
Oregon, I think they were at 86% last time, but they are gaining grown yesterday. I did GOTV tonight and we were calling all over Oregon...hurray for mail in voting
Joe said...
To hell with it.
I want Texas, too.
Let's get greedy.
SLAM DUNK.
I love it.
Congratulations to President Barack Hussein Obama.
How special must a candidate be to overcome that middle name?
Very.
--Ya know I just realized something about the whole fake birth certificate bs: if he were to fake his birth certificate, wouldn't he have made his middle name Harry or something? LOL what a bunch of "morans"!
If you happen to be a great programmer who would pass a google type interview without blushing AND happen to be expert in 3D object recognition AND are dying to work in the kewlest robotics research institute, THEN sent your resumes to Willow Garage.
Otherwise, spread this great get out the vote for the big O:
http://www.cnnbcvideo.com/taf.shtml
I used to think Anderson Cooper was a bright man, but these last couple of weeks has proved otherwise. He's been making comments about the polls tightening. Sometimes, I wished I could stick my hands into the TV and bitch-slap him like in that movie Scary Movie.
On a more serious note, I agree that McCain threw the election away. He should have run as McCain 2000 from the very beginning. He should have run a scrupulously clean campaign, chosen (gag me with a spoon) Lieberman, told Falwell and Dobson to take a flying leap.
He might have lost, but he certainly would have done better than he appears to be doing now.
And as an added bonus, he wouldn't have gone down in history as a pathetic fool who sold his soul and his integrity in a foolish, greedy quest for power. (win or lose)
Great comment by Brian Williams on Tavis Smiley tonight about how 6-8 hour wait is like a poll tax on working people. Suggested if election goes as predicted it might be possible to begin to fix this.
what do people think of an obama effect? the idea that people who are saying mccain in the polls, especially middle aged and seniors who may remember the civil rights movement, don't want to be on the wrong side of something historic and hopeful. i think obama will outperform the polls due to this and the cellphone effect. i am more excited than i've ever been in my adult life about anything.
Tomorrow I cast my vote for Obama, Dole,
interesting
Of the North Carolinans who split their pres and sen votes between parties I wonder whether there will be more for obama/dole or more for mccain/hagan
Chi said...
I used to think Anderson Cooper was a bright man, but these last couple of weeks has proved otherwise. He's been making comments about the polls tightening. Sometimes, I wished I could stick my hands into the TV and bitch-slap him like in that movie Scary Movie.
Landslides are ratings disasters. There will be networks who hold off calling the election for hours just to try to boost their ratings.
Three "NO on 8" votes in my house.
Where are you guys getting those IBD poll numbers from? The website doesnt have them up yet?
For those who haven't heard, polling may be over, but the campaign continues.
McCain has decided to make two stops tomorrow (nearly unprecedented) in Grand Junction CO and somewhere in NM.
Obama after voting appararently is going to drive a few miles over to IN, details unknown (commuter station? factory shift?) - anyway, nothing big.
And the word in Alaska is that Palin is going to vote in Wasilla, and return to AZ, though not sure if that is true.
Anderson Cooper is the epitome of false equivalency.
So the "Shrilla from Wasilla" is back in Alaska ... And don't you come back now ...
Here's the TINY significance of Dixville Notch. The entire country, which has (mostly) yet to vote, gets to see a conservative little hamlet which hasn't voted Democratic in 40 years go 3/4 for Obama.
And the great Bandwagon effect begins...
Who doesn't want to be on the winner's side?
--Landslides are ratings disasters. There will be networks who hold off calling the election for hours just to try to boost their ratings.--
That's total fiction and based on absolutely nothing.
If there is any pressure (other than getting it right) it is to be the first to project.
The ratings they care about are between 8-11 ET. There is no way they have enough polls closed to call before 10 even in a landslide, and McCain likely wouldn't concede until after the west coast closes, and Obama speak no earlier than 11:30 - past prime time.
This comment from Freeptard land was so funny, I just had to post it on here.
"I believe John and I believe Sarah when she guaranteed a victory in Pennsylvania. Their campaign has been all about stealth: PUMA’s lying to pollsters, Operation Chaos, allowing pollsters to oversample Democrats, infiltrating the special needs community and home schooling community, getting the support of the NRA and Focus on the Family, appealing to Reagan Democrats. Just like an iceberg which only shows 10% of itself above the surface, the foundation of McCain campaign is what you don’t see and what I believe make John and Sarah very confident as the nation votes tomorrow."
Welcome Home, Barack!
As your motorcade heads home to Hyde Park, savor this last arrival as candidate. We all now anticipate your next arrival home as President-Elect!!
The hopes and dreams of all of us now ride on your shoulders for the final hours of this most historic race!!
Go to http://www.tipponline.com/
Are we socialist yet?
"The latest Field results showed 49 for 43 against among AAs. I hope the final results are different"
Did you mean 'for', I think? And I hope so, too.
"On a more serious note, I agree that McCain threw the election away. He should have run as McCain 2000 from the very beginning."
I totally agree.
Honestly, I think that was his plan... and it was totally screwed up by Obama beating Hillary. No one likes to talk about it, but the republicans were begging to face Hillary. They were devastated when Obama won.
If Hillary had won, McCain would not have had to pander to the fundies, because they despise her like no one else. His base would never have been in doubt. But against Obama, it was. And he had to run like one of them, instead of like himself.
Pretty funny if you don't like the far right... they forced McCain to reject the side of himself that could have won them the election.
They'll make a similar mistake when they think Palin will play nationally in four years.
My take on tonight's SNL Palin is that it's her idea of funny. As someone else noted, she doesn't have comedic timing. Done right, it would have been a scream.
It looked like she was on meds--Haldol, perhaps.
wv emneseth: Emneseth again, "landslide."
Drudge is frantically searching for a poll that shows McCain competitive...
Maybe there's a new Nickelodeon poll out later tonight?
6 HOURS OF GOTV CALLS IN SAN RAFAEL CA TODAY.
Very enjoyable! and pizza from Costco too! I think it was made of plastic like fake vomit... but good...
idk if this even matters or this is an indication of anything but if you check on the Google Top 100 Searches , Reverend Wright is nowhere to be found.
Dixville Notch is the #1 at the moment.
I don't know exactly what that means but my guess is Wright isn't on peoples minds which is a good thing considering he is being looped on many National networks the last few days.
I'm glad America is rejecting this garbage this time around.
yes we can
Anyone else notice how Obama's North Dakota win percentage is now up to 34%? That's so freakin' awesome. I think Obama is actually gonna pull it off, and win it! He's got the mo'.
I don't usually do these, but my word verification word is 'omodec'.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop taking omodec.
This is why this country is truly sick and why McCain has any chance of winning and whe we are 29th in infant mortality and why I'll probably leave someday to live in the normal part of the world (europe, ireland, new zealand)
The number 2 most searched on Google is Vince Mcmahon (fake wrestling...!)
Not to mention we just spent 21 months and a billion on fucking election that the brits can do in 6weeks...
Shiiiiiittt.
Not to mention we just spent 21 months and a billion on fucking election that the brits can do in 6weeks...
But ours are 'cooler'.
I would be funny of the Research 2000/Daily Kos poll ends up with the weakest results for Obama and the GOPers cling to that for a day.
How many points do I get for predicting the next conspiracy theory on freepland?
Here goes. Obama himself channeled money to run the Rev Wright ads so people would hate the Repubs more for it, and turn out to vote Obama for sure.
About the Wright ad, I think it plays only to a fraction of the GOP base. But still...
Andrew Sullivan posed the question, "How does any decent human being stay a member of the Republican party?", after he saw the nasty mailers that were sent in VA. It seems to me the GOP runs on wedge issues, fear, bigotry. So unAmerican. I don't know how long some people would take to snap out of it.
I'm looking forward to some networks calling some states and then some city polling comes in and the urban vote completely blows away expectations.
yes john
49% for
43% against
that's what I typed right?
cloud9ine said...
How many points do I get for predicting the next conspiracy theory on freepland?
Here goes. Obama himself channeled money to run the Rev Wright ads so people would hate the Repubs more for it, and turn out to vote Obama for sure."
I also believed this. With a name like the GOPTrust PAC that ties the ad around the GOP's neck and they are pretty unpopular right now.
I predicted an Obama win of 10% earlier today...I'm now thinking I might be shorting him a few points.
Good night all! It's 11:37pm here on the West Coast. I gotta go recharge. Tomorrow is going to be a BIG day.
dfs said: "49% for
43% against
that's what I typed right?"
Sorry, that's right, dfc. I misread it as "49-43 against" - got my hopes up.
I am so sorry, ... I really wanted to give you my prediction for the General, but McCain has stole my Arizona Fox News Thunder:
EVs:
Obama 341
McCain 197
Obama 52%
McCain 45%
Talk, talk, talk, blah, blah, blah good night chicken-head, Cindy, GOOD NIGHT!
Everything depends on turnout...
And I think it favors the Dems.
But I also see a real posibility of a narrow win for O.
He will win.
Hey, I'm thinking of an act of Congress I call VUSA
Voter Unified Standards Act.
The gist... all states, all precincts, use the same standard voting machines. (we don't use separate currency in every state, right?) The machines are basically dumb animals with no software in them. They are scanners that scan paper that is held on to.
The scanners are made by many Americans who get jobs. The machines have no real moving parts.
And they are made to standards that have them last for decades.
Then, voting can be done early, and election WEEKEND is just that on a weekend (voting on a workday when there are millions who have to work??? WTF!!!
The machines are every-fucking-where. In malls libraries, airports, etc...
Just bring your voter ID card which is issued at the same time as your Social Security card (like when you are born) and it is swiped and then you can't vote again that year...
And lastly, if you vote and file taxes, you get a coupon for a burger or some shit... vegies get tempura...
Seriously, we can do better.
That graph looks like it has a pretty clear positive correlation...
Nate and Sean,
Wouldn't it make sense to do an "If the Election Were Held Today" post?
There's no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates In Dixville Notch and their performances in the rest of New Hampshire
That's not the point. DN is just one more place that has historically gone Republican but is now going Dem -- but it's the first where we have a real vote tally, which provides some pyschological confidence that all the others are real.
Just one thing. Minorities (Latinos and Africanamericas) are mostly voting NO on Proposition 8.
The Wright ads in NYC, CA, OR and other blue states are the true sign of Repub capitulation...
Just designed to try and keep the total vote from being too large.
The next phase for Repubs is to tear him down and deligitimize him.
That we know from Carter and Clinton.
Sarah Palin in Elko, Nevada on election eve? Is she kidding? And all this nonsense-taxes-taxes-taxes-create wealth-blah, blah, blah-the earth has a limited amount of resources, period. The only way to create wealth is to take something in some way, big or small, from someone else. Now all these upper one percenters and the idiot minions that follow the hateful rhetoric of the Republican party are pissed because the party is nearly over and Sheriff Obama is riding into town. John McCain in Prescott, Arizona? Meanwhile isn't Barack Obama in CHICAGO??? Don't they have to shut up and stop these idiotic rallies at midnight?
I'm going to be doing some campaigning of my own tomorrow on the Las Vegas Strip:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/370392338
I expect tomorrow to be historic for all of us and particularly Barack Obama. Russell Brand had it right: "Please, America, for the sake of the world vote for Barack Obama."
I certainly would hate to be the individual who touches John McCain's arm the next time he's at the craps table...and I give him less than a straight up numbers chance of roulette of actually winning this thing, as he is now promising...
Of course a sample of <30 people isn't predictive, but I see the two votes for Paul as a good sign nonetheless.
Especially after the bailout, McCain's going to be hurt by Libertarian-style republicans voting for Paul where they can, and not voting at all where they can't.
ok pals,
get out the bed and go get them!
vote Obama/Biden 2008.
good look,and may God bless America today.
:)
good look=good luck...
stupid fingers !
:P
regarding the wright ads.... I've been seeing a ton of them all night (along with another that tries to paint Obama as wanting to destroy our military). And I'm in California. If they're wasting money in Ca, that's not desperation, that's idiocy. I was assuming these were national ads.
WV: Zygerol... the anti-depressive/geritol cocktail McCain will be slamming on the morning of Nov. 5th
Since 1972, those data show r^2 = 0.42
It is only the first three years (with 12 or fewer voters) that mess up the r-squared. Now, those years should have bigger error bars due to the smaller sample size, so we should do a more sophisticated analysis.
Anyways, i'm not sure why you bothered to plot all those statistics without doing any sort of statistical analysis. There appears to be some predictive value in there, as we should expect.
Yup, California is being bombarded with the Wright ads. Truly disgusting.
Regarding Prop 8, it'll be close. My family alone is divided. 3 Yes, 3 No.
I'm leary of anything the majority of Americans agree on. If Bush is any indication, they can't be right. :D
My God, on Wednesday a year of following this race is over. What should I do with my life then?????? Well, maybe start reading books again :)
MR.NATE how long will you hold me from my work?
Its 2 pm in INDIA and my boss is giving me stares for 20000 refreshes i made...
Don't under estimate Dixsville Notch. It's a custom to be first and Republican. People in NH are going to get up in the morning and see a very conservative town in the most conservative state in the Northeast going heavily to Obama.
I expected DN to go for McCain, who is popular in NH. Thought there might be a very small chance that NH goes for McCain. Smells like a probable 10+% landslide to me now. Very strong BO ground operation and it's the only place in New England for activists to go to on election day as the other states up here are dark blue.
Hi Nate and everyone else here. I've been following this site for the past months. Excellent excellent stuff!!
Man, I wish I could vote today :) Make this happen america...we'll instantly fall in love with you once again!!
Best whishes from the Netherlands!
Can anybody else not sleep because of that strange Christmas Eve-like feeling?
This is good news for Obama so far!
Polls open at 7.00am here in California - just a little more than 6 hours to go. I can't wait to cast my vote for Barack Obama.
Good news for Bobby Jindal, too.
Post a Comment