FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Indiana II...

11.04.2008

Indiana II...

by Nate Silver @ 7:31 PM

Donnie Fowler, who is on HDNet with me and knows Indiana like the back of his hand, thinks Obama's strong performance in Vigo County is a good sign for him.

121 comments

Jeff NYC Dem said...: First!; November 4, 2008 7:32 PM
Eber said...: awesome; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
Simon said...: first?
great job nate!; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
monteverdi said...: This is a very exciting state to watch and follow!; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
John said...: Keep the comments coming Nate, please!; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
Jeff NYC Dem said...: If Indiana goes blue, we will win the election!; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
Luke C. said...: Stop that firsting; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
Simon said...: aah! not quite!; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
J said...: Not Indiana-related, but what's up with VA? Strong McCain returns so far...; November 4, 2008 7:33 PM
Rishi Arora said...: second! I think Olbermann followed your stat analysis for Indiana I; November 4, 2008 7:34 PM
Abbie Nermal said...: Painful to watch Dan Rather on HDNET....I think CNN in HD is best coverage so far...but no Nate.; November 4, 2008 7:34 PM
activistmom said...: CRAP! Those first FLA numbers suck!; November 4, 2008 7:37 PM
PeteKent said...: Obama looking good in VA abd IN per Barone on Fox News.; November 4, 2008 7:42 PM
Jennifer said...: Spending this election season 10 minutes from the border, I've made a pledge to stop swearing at Indiana drivers if they should pull through on this.

Even the ones who keep their brights on while passing/tailgating me.

Your move, Indiana.

Also, anyone have any suggestions for "our polls close in fifteen minutes dear God Almighty I Hope My Candidate Wins So I Have A Job After This" stress?

Constantly refreshing 538 is all I've come up with, and unfortunately, our volunteers are watching CNN Live on my laptop right now...; November 4, 2008 7:44 PM
tylerxdurden said...: Jeff NYC Dem said...
If Indiana goes blue, we will win the election!
True but it'll probably be close so take a while to call it decisively. The polls don't even close for another 15 minutes in the bottom left corner (and top right) of the state, where a lot of Dem votes are going to come from.; November 4, 2008 7:44 PM
sfergus483 said...: To state the obvious:

If precincts have long lines. they don't close on time.

If they aren't closed, votes aren't counted yet.

Long lines =Obama strength

Raw #s are from precincts WITHOUT long lines.

You do the math.; November 4, 2008 7:44 PM
Harper said...: The Daily Kos map is boss!!! It refreshes quickly too. I feel like I'm John King at the zoom in screen.

http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/; November 4, 2008 7:45 PM
NotYourBlog said...: Someone talk us down on these early returns?; November 4, 2008 7:45 PM
Glenn said...: FIRST!!!

wv: tolas What the ancient Greeks used to wear before they invented the letter G.; November 4, 2008 7:46 PM
macona7 said...: What's going on in VA???? I've been working to turn VA blue??

Nervous nelly...; November 4, 2008 7:46 PM
El Oso said...: VA number sucking hard :(; November 4, 2008 7:48 PM
iHEARTpalin said...: McCain is winning EC tally 21 to 3. McCain/Palin landslide impending. Suck it liberal sissies!!1; November 4, 2008 7:51 PM
anbruch said...: What the hell's wrong with Blogger tonight? How are we going to find out Real Joe's secret if the comments aren't working properly?; November 4, 2008 7:54 PM
Aurabass said...: Indiana results look great on the CNN county by county map
Obama running well ahead of Kerry's numbers and mostly rural GOP counties are in now.
I really like our chances in Indiana at this point. Obama is close with mostly rural and GOP areas in so far.; November 4, 2008 7:55 PM
madamerica said...: I agree, IN looks great. VA looks OK to me too.; November 4, 2008 8:02 PM
tony said...: Obama still 2/1 ON in Indiana according to Betfair betting.; November 4, 2008 8:08 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: @ j

Virginia reporting areas are right now very rural. Fake Virginia takes a lot longer.; November 4, 2008 8:08 PM
Bobbydole said...: GO BLOGGER GO!!!; November 4, 2008 8:08 PM
Dave-london said...: BBC Give PA to BO!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 8:08 PM
Jackson said...: NPR called PA and NH for Obama.; November 4, 2008 8:09 PM
Subterranean said...: The early returns have been unqualified GREAT NEWS!!! for President-Elect BARACK OBAMA!!!; November 4, 2008 8:09 PM
mark said...: msnbc calls pa for obama!!! seems early, but i still slammed a pbr to celebrate.; November 4, 2008 8:09 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: I think the internet is crashing; November 4, 2008 8:09 PM
capehorn said...: McCain need a cleen sweep of all Bush states or it's over.; November 4, 2008 8:10 PM
KIC said...: Florida is lookin' gooooooood.; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
anbruch said...: Blogger Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

I think the internet is crashing

I'm just having trouble with Blogger myself...; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
detwiler said...: PA and NH to Obama already per MSNBC!; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
Joey said...: Is Nate's chart setup going to be on here or is it just for what he's doing on HDnet??; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
KIC said...: OMG, my comment made it!; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
Ben said...: MSNBC GIVES PENNSYLVANIA TO OBAMA!! HOLY CRAP!; November 4, 2008 8:11 PM
Michael Leddy said...: Very exciting -- I went knocking on doors three times in Terre Haute. I'm glad that I didn't know about Vigo's historical significance when I did -- I would've been too nervous.; November 4, 2008 8:12 PM
El Oso said...: I'm going with NPR's map; November 4, 2008 8:12 PM
capehorn said...: We still haven't won a red state yet...; November 4, 2008 8:12 PM
Nicholas Warino said...: Pennsylvania called for OBAMA!!!

ELECTION...OVER!!!

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!; November 4, 2008 8:13 PM
Charles said...: MSNBC called Pennsylvania for Obama; November 4, 2008 8:15 PM
El Oso said...: come on Florida! COME ON BABY GO BLUE!!!!; November 4, 2008 8:15 PM
Evan said...: How did MSNBC call PA already? I'm happy as hell but I'll feel more comfortable when another network calls it? It looks odd when they call such a key(stone) state when they are reporting any precincts that are reporting.; November 4, 2008 8:15 PM
pafl said...: Indiana's strongest Democrat counties are still to report.

But, why is NBC calling PA for Obama when they also show not a single vote counted?; November 4, 2008 8:15 PM
anbruch said...: Blogger KIC said...

OMG, my comment made it!

Post while you can!

Real Joe: how long till you reveal your secret?; November 4, 2008 8:16 PM
CoffeeInNC said...: Things are looking good!; November 4, 2008 8:16 PM
Artsy Catsy said...: For the first time in my life, I'm really proud to live in Vigo County, Indiana!; November 4, 2008 8:16 PM
SHERWICK said...: McCain has Obama 'right where he wants him'!; November 4, 2008 8:16 PM
MM said...: Two years.
Two years and it comes to this.
To one day,
To one vote.
Two choices,
Two dreams?
To a future full of wonder,
To plans not yet built
The change
we
need?
The hope
we
need?
Let me toss the coin,
Decide 4 years
on 2 years
Let me close my eyes
and mark my line,
I can see no end
But I dream, that these ,
Two years,
led to; November 4, 2008 8:16 PM
El Oso said...: Counties to watch in FL:

Brevard, Volusia, Lake, Pinellas, Orange; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
weinerdog said...: Wow - anyone with Directv might want to put on ch 352.....8 channels of election coverage at once!; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
sfergus483 said...: I am having major net problems tonight - no new Drudge Report for 2 hours, CNN doesn't show beyond main page

Best election coverage? BBC America (I assume simulcast of the national coverage) - drilling down to Florida countries; they have Larry Sabato; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
Rick said...: Cautious optimism folks. They are projecting winners based on exit polls which I feel is a VERY stupid thing to be doing on their part. But sadly typical in the effort to be right first.; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
SHERWICK said...: lol artsy; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
Kenny Johnson said...: pafl said...
Indiana's strongest Democrat counties are still to report.

But, why is NBC calling PA for Obama when they also show not a single vote counted?
-----------------------------
Exit polls.; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
txtea said...: Nate, what's the problem? No update for the last 50 minutes. I'm in withdrawals. PA for Obama.

GOBAMA!; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
El Oso said...: NPR has also called PA; November 4, 2008 8:17 PM
anbruch said...: pafl said...

Indiana's strongest Democrat counties are still to report.

But, why is NBC calling PA for Obama when they also show not a single vote counted?

They must be pretty confident in the exit polls.; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
ialex said...: One thing to notice is that just about everywhere Obama is over performing Kerry and McCain is under performing Bush.; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
EEJ said...: I worked in politics in the Southwest corner of IN for about ten years and got to know it VERY well. Also, I grew up there and feel like I know what's up. YES, VIGO is a good sign, but an even better sign is Spencer, Perry, and Posey. Those are seriously Evangelical, neo-con, born-again areas that I would NEVER have expected to go blue, but they all have. Just waiting to see Vanderburgh and Warrick - relatively big population there - about 100,000, so if it goes blue, it's GOOD news. Also hardcore Republican stronghold, but seems promising.; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
madamerica said...: I'll go ahead and call IN for Obama.; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
Ian said...: Nate, how's that lovely tie your mother dressed you in?

lol@dan_rather; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
El Oso said...: Internet taking a giant dump. I'm just happy my MSNBC feed is still coming thru fine; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
akoolromeo said...: Anyone who wants to keep an eye on Florida, county by county, here's a link.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-elections-nationalmap-ap,0,3763714.htmlpage; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
thisniss said...: In live report from NC BOE - Obama up 12% in Early Voting. McCain up 8% in Election Day voting. Net result: Obama winning NC easily unless turnout gets up to 100% or differential shifts big - which I don't see happening based on counties reporting.; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
justsomeguy said...: Nate-

The site is dying, rip out the polls and extra crap so it can load!

PA to BHO!; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
ByeBye GOP said...: Paging Pete paging Petekent please report to 538 so we can heckle you..Down goes Pennsylvania!; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
akoolromeo said...: Exit polls are probably useless in any state that had early voting. Not that they havebeen reliable lately.; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
El Oso said...: Thanks akiilromeo!; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
mizack2 said...: HAGAN DEFEATS DOLE! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: We don't need no f*****g polls---clean the server.; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
akoolromeo said...: Regarding the Florida vote, the Southern party of the State doesn't usually come in until after 11PM, and that area is Democratic by a 60 to 40 margin, so Obama just has to stay close until those votes are counted.
Also, at UCF, there was a 4 hour line at 4PM and growing, so they will not finish voting until around 11PM. Susan Kosmos, who is running for the House, purchased pizza for everyone in the line, so the students are taking it in stride, and treating it like tailgating. The only possible complaint is that they probably should have had more machines at a University with 50,000 students.; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
morbiczer said...: Long time lurker, first time poster from Hungary.

Indiana is looking very good for Obama. Just look at the results even Kerry had in the NW of the state. Lots of voters there too.

Those counties haven't reported yet.

And I just get CNN here, and they are still silent about Pennsylvania. But if so many other channels have called it already, than it's probably a done deal.

I hope Obama gets at least two Southern states.; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
tony said...: Obama now 5/2 ON on Betfair trading. McCain's odds lengthening.; November 4, 2008 8:24 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Welcome morbiczer; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
anthonyy said...: Indiana is tight, but if you update the county numbers you gave to begin with, Obama is winning by 2.8%.

Those four counties are now almost finished counting and Obama is a weighted average of 11.8% better than Kerry. Kerry lost by 20.8%, so Obama is winning by 2.8% (2 times 11.8 less 20.8). That is on 67,000 votes out of over 2.5m in Indiana.; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
SkyDog said...: Hamilton county (just north of Indianapolis) will be interesting to watch. If Obama keeps it close there Indiana looks very good for him.; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
Rumpelstiltskin said...: capehorn - we have won all the blue ones and fighting hard in the red ones.From their perspective,they have won a few red states and fighting for their lives in the others.I would say..good signs so far.fingers crossed.; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
akoolromeo said...: I wouldn't pay too much stock in Brevard County, Florida. They are very Republican. I used to live there and my mom lives there. Orange and Osceola will probabyl go Democratic. I can't believe Seminole County will stay Democratic once all the votes are tallied. If it does, then Obama will win Florida, because they don't have any Democrats in that County. ha In this state you have Miami area, and then the rest of the State.; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
Joey said...: i bet i know real joe's secret; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
SHERWICK said...: McCain under 5 on intrade...; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: IN looking good----the longer it takes to call the better Baracks chances.; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: The blogger is cooking now.; November 4, 2008 8:28 PM
weinerdog said...: ha! Fox just called PA for Obama! I smell landslide!; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
madamerica said...: NH just called for Obama on CNN.; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
KIC said...: NH being projected by CNN.; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
Peter Bebergal said...: Hello everyone,

Can anyone explain to me why even a close loss is good for Obama in Indiana?; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Todays Schedule:
Vote-Check
Make Pie-Check
Be sure daughter and partner voted-Check
Put Champagne on ice-Check
Prepare Chantilly Whipped Cream-Check
Wait for Florida Result
Pop Champagne
Make History; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
Zahlman said...: Apparently a grand total of 3 votes have been reported so far in Maine (2 Obama, 1 McCain)? WTF?

wv: ladnes - the quality of McCain's personality that turns off Democrats.; November 4, 2008 8:32 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Indiana is a traditional Rep state. If McCain is having trouble there--it is going to be even tougher in a not so strong leaning state i.e. Florida; November 4, 2008 8:32 PM
madamerica said...: @peter bebelgal:

Bush won IN by 21 points in 2004. So even a close loss in IN indicates a good performance overall for Obama. But I think BO's gonna pull out a win in IN.; November 4, 2008 8:33 PM
Zahlman said...: The hell, McCain leading in Virginia but at the same time Obama leading in NC? There are going to be a few surprises this time around, at this rate.; November 4, 2008 8:33 PM
myagave said...: Exit polls will mislead you!

The networks fucked it up in 2000 by using exit polls to call the election TOO EARLY.

Sit down, cross your fingers, and wait!; November 4, 2008 8:33 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Go Hagan; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
Zahlman said...: FOX just projected PA for Obama... DEVELOPING HARD...; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
KIC said...: I'd say close is good in IN because it is SO traditionally repub that overperforming Kerry in so many counties means in other repub areas the same thing can be happening.; November 4, 2008 8:34 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Chambliss must be beaten--that SOB questioned the patriotism of a man who left 3 of his limbs in Nam.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Z-Brilliance said...: Listen to myagave: exit polls are worthless. Let's wait until everything plays out.

Dammit, GA to McCain.; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
JJ said...: Peter Bebergal said...

Hello everyone,

Can anyone explain to me why even a close loss is good for Obama in Indiana?

From what I understand the demographics are such that Indiana goes heavier republican that the states around it. If Indiana goes only slightly red, then the states around it is trending blue.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Zahlman said...: Why are votes reported by county in the US, with county populations varying wildly?; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Gen Sherman said...: Georgia disappointing me.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
IL_Grimacѐ said...: IN is really looking good. A very large percentage of republican precincts have reported and McCain is barely in the lead. Meanwhile the heavily democratic precincts, Northwest (well the west part in general), Monroe County and Marion County have all reported far lower percentages so far. I see it coming. I desperately want it to happen. I've lived in this state all my life and my opinion of it would be seriously raised if this upset is pulled off.; November 4, 2008 8:38 PM
Zahlman said...: FOX just signed off from some McCain campaign headquarters saying they'd "be there early and often"... LOL!

gushn: the attitude of FOX reporters towards McFailin.; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
bugstomper said...: To people asking why MSNBC called PA when no votes have been reported: The MSNBC exit polls show ... um, I don't see an overall number so I'll show the split by male/female

Male (46% of voters) O/M = 54/45
Female (54% of voters) O/M = 60/39

That's a 57/43 overall result. I guess they consider O+14 as safe enough to call the state even with exit polls having a higher MOE.

WV: hurre, as in hurre up and get some actual counts in!; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
dnebdal said...: And CNN just called PA for Obama - time to start chilling the champagne, I think.; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
Gen Sherman said...: People in West Palm still don't know how to mark a ballot. UNFREAKIN' believable. You don't circle the arrow, you connect it.; November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
igwespike said...: Watch Madison county, currently 51-48 Obama with 71% reported.; November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
bugstomper said...: @zahlman

Each county has a county government who handles the voting in their county and report results that are aggregated by state. So the results show up county by county. It has to do with practicality not population.; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Zahlman said...: FOX is NOT pulling their projection for PA despite objection from the McCain camp... this is some kind of Bizarro world?; November 4, 2008 8:44 PM
JJ said...: Pa is probably safe Obama but I would be FAR more comfy if I saw more than 2 counties declared.; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
DJInBoise said...: Go Obama!; November 4, 2008 8:53 PM
Jason said...: Obama finally seems to be catching up in Virginia.; November 4, 2008 9:02 PM
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艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^; August 28, 2009 3:33 AM
freefun0616 said...: 酒店經紀人,
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酒店經紀人,
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專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
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酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
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禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
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酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
 梵,; October 2, 2009 8:33 AM

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