Washington, DC -- One of the things about the experience of covering election night from inside the bubble of a TV studio is that one becomes slightly paranoid that the entire event has been staged for the cameras: a cruel Truman Show kind of experiment, the illusion to be broken only once one leaves the premises and is interrupted by a passerby saying, "No, silly, Obama didn't carry Ohio! And they're having a recount again in Florida!"
What I actually found upon leaving the studio, however, was a spontaneous display of joy in the Nation's Capital. Mere blocks from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, in a buttoned-down section of America's only remaining buttoned-downed town, horns were honking in a ticker-tape stream until three in the morning, and strangers black, white and otherwise were hooting and hollering and giving one another thumbs-ups and high-fives as they passed each other on the street.
There was no sense of anger, or rivalry, no sense that the enemy had been vanquished. There was, rather, a tremendous sense of empowerment in the notion that someone more like them was going to take up residence down the street: someone younger, someone blacker, someone poorer, someone who knew that the majesty of America exists not just in the tranquility of its small towns but also in the bustle of its cities.
I don't know what this ultimately means for the country. But good luck finding a newspaper this morning.
11.05.2008
In Nation's Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory
@ 11:40 AM
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I'm heartbroken about 8, but am glad about the celebrations nationwide for Obama.
first!
Nate, thank you for all of the info.
What a wonderful election year!!!
My cousin wrote this this morning, and it sums up a lot of how I felt last night and today:
Last night was an emotional night, no doubt. What an amazing thing to experience/witness. Teary eyes everywhere.
And then to encounter the racist and fearful bigotry and politics the second I arrive at work and from radio listeners etc... Makes me sad beyond expression...
We have won this fight, but the war is far from over.
Let's hope we can continue to move ahead and continue to silence the sickening divisive politics of fear...
Politics will be sure to disappoint us on many issues for years to come... but I am relieved to see a new political demographic emerging from all of the insanity of the past decade plus... Hope at last.
I can't believe its taken this long... and that even today the scars of racism and class-war continue to influence many on a daily basis...
But it was definitely a nice change of pace last night-- a second to allow us to reflect. And now... to get to work. The thing that touched me most about last nights speech was the part of the 106 year old woman... and Baracks thoughts on what OUR children will see in THEIR lifetime. May it be more rewarding and inspiring than what we experienced last night....
" But good luck finding a newspaper this morning."
Yep, I wanted some but not going to happen...
Nate, thanks for all you work this season. Your analysis has been a nice change from the naive analysis you get from news organizations that simply hype the latest poll result!
Congratulations to Nate and company! Looks like your projections are spot on. Enjoy your job in the 2012 campaigns and beyond!
I think this is the difference: When McCain mentioned Obama, the crowd booed. When Obama mentioned McCain, the crowd cheered.
Yes, a lot of anti-gay ballot proposals were passed, and we probably won't get as many Senators as we'd imagined. But still... today is a beautiful day.
Congratulations on some supremely accurate predictions and your immortality in the comic xkcd (http://www.xkcd.com/500 - mouseover to read the alt text)!
Been fun reading.
Also, (n-1)th post! (sorry)
Thank you for everything, Nate! When I think back on this election, I will think about Barack Obama and I will think about this web site.
Now down to business: WTF Alaska??
Thank You Nate!
Maybe a couple of these senatorial races will drag on for a few weeks so I can keep up with my 538 addiction
This was a good night.
Nate, please finish your burrito bracket!
WV:"hogedr"
Did Real Joe reveal the surprise?
seriously, i could not find a chicago tribune this morning anywhere. snagged a red eye, though.
oh, and nate - hope to see you out sometime in chicago. i'll probably hug you for helping me stay somewhat sane this election cycle. and also because you're cute ;)
Impossible to find a copy of the NYT anywhere in Manhattan today. There's people digging through garbage cans trying to get their hands on one.
Haha got the display copy of the Indy Star at the post office this morning after going to 6 places.
Way to go nate, you nailed it.
Yes we did! It was wonderful to go through this experience with all of you (yes, even the trolls)!
Fabulous projections here at 538!
You should be schooling all the TV network and cable news shows on how this is done!
Thanks!
As Keith Olbermann mentioned last night, this is a political "Man on the Moon!"
Great job, Nate and Sean! You did a fantastic job!
Right now I'm laughing at all those Hillary supporters who during the summer called Obama unelectable.
Took me five tries to find a New York Times.
I loved hearing about those spontaneous demonstrations. I think Bush should have come out and spoken to the people briefly, announcing that he would give his speech this morning. It was bit like having the King under siege.
Nate-Thanks.
WTF, California :( Much of my joy from last night was snuffed out when I saw Prop 8 ahead this morning.
One step at a time...
Wow, it was quite a night.
On my way home from work I stopped by my polling place to see how things fared. Remember we had been in the news, because of the screwed up books. I met "Dutch" Newman, the grand dame of local Democrat politics. She lives a few blocks from me. She was there checking on the volunteers. We talked, and she gave me tickets to attend the Missouri Democratic Party Celebration at Midland Theater.
So Amy, her sister Suzi, and I went downtown and watched the election results pour in while seated in the very opulently renovated Midland Theater. As an architect, I was very impressed with the renovation work the city did on that century old landmark. They had CNN on the big screen above the stage. We sipped on rum and cokes and munched on snacks as the evening went by.
I told Amy watch the results and look for key indicators. Indiana will be first. If they say it's too close to call immediately, then the pre-election polls will be right and the likliehood of an Obama victory will be very real. Then I said watch Pennsylvania and Virginia. McCain tried hard to win the Keystone state, so when they called Pennsylvania for Obama I knew McCain's sole offensive strategy had failed. Then they said Virginia was too close to call immediately, which was a good sign for Obama, because of course, that meant another supposedly secure red state was wavering and once again the pre-election polls were being vindicated. But the moment I knew it was over was when they called Ohio for Obama, even before they called Virginia. Wow, I didn't expect that one. I thought McCain was going to edge out a razor thin victory in Ohio the same way Bush did 4 years earlier. People in the theater started cheering, because we all knew it was over for McCain at that point. Everyone hugged. People were crying, because they couldn't believe it was happening. We all said we won't believe it until we see McCain give his concession speech. At this point, a Jazz musician came on stage and began singing "America the Beautiful."
Then not long after the West Coast polls closed, CNN called the election. When they announced Barack Hussein Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States, we cheered until we were hoarse, we cried our eyes out, strangers embraced, black, white, hispanic, were arm in arm. Amy, who had volunteered so much for the Obama campaign, was overwhelmed. I was overwhelmed, because my Reserve unit would most likely not face another tour in Iraq. With tears streaming down both our faces, we kissed and just held each other for the longest time. It was over. It was finally over.
Senator McCain gave a very gracious concession speech, and while we waited for our new President-elect to give his victory speech, the local and state Democrat candidates came on stage to give their victory speeches in time for the 10 o'clock news. While they were speaking, CNN called Florida and Nevada for Obama. It was definitely turning into a landslide. Amy's dad, a life long Republican, even called to tell her and her sister that for the first time in his life he had voted for a Democrat for President.
Then for me the pivotal moment of the evening came. Right before Senator Obama came on TV for his speech. A young African American man wearing a t-shirt from my dad's old union came on stage and sang the National Anthem. Everyone stopped, put their hands over their heart, and with tears streaming down everyone's cheeks sang a song that had become more poignant for many of us that evening. After he finished singing, I shook his hand and gave him a bear hug. We never said a word. We didn't need to.
Obama gave his victory speech, and not long afterwards we departed with a sense of peace and joy. People were driving up and down the streets honking horns, smiling, cheering. All that was needed was confetti.
Our nation had turned back centuries of racial prejudice and brought a sense of hope, dignity, and inspiration that has been missing for too long from our nation's highest office.
God bless the United States of America.
Amazing stuff.
I know we've all seen a lot of people bitter about this, already - but I was surprised to see a really positive contribution from, of all people, Hillbuzz.
"There’s a fork in the road here that all those of us who wanted McCain to win can take: you can either follow a negative path, and bitterly curse last night’s results, or you can choose to accept this result and put your energy into what you can do going forward to make sure your voice will be heard in the new administration, and your concerns for this nation to be raised.
Obama is the President-Elect and deserves the opportunity to show us how he will lead — he could very well surprise us and prove our concerns about him to be unfounded. We don’t know yet. But, last night he won the election, and that affords him a chance to win our support. He deserves that chance to explain what “change” means in terms of where he plans to take this country, and how he intends to get us there."
If only all partisans were so positive.
Thanks to you, Sean, and Brett for putting in the effort for the site. I'll stop by from time to time in the next while to read your post-analysis But in any event see you in 2010.
BTW did Brett have tape rolling on this?
P.S. Great job on the analysis (seems you were dead on with the %6 pop vote call, and definitely ballpark with the EV).
Since a friend told me about your site a month ago, I've been addicted to it. Nate, I echo the many others who thank you for this work and insight. Your steady analytical voice is much needed in many aspects of life.
And if I'm not mistaken, these scenes of joy on the streets are the extent of the "riots" feared by conservatives. One fear debunked so far!
** There was, rather, a tremendous sense of empowerment in the notion that someone more like them was going to take up residence down the street: someone younger, someone blacker, someone poorer, someone who knew that the majesty of America exists not just in the tranquility of its small towns but also in the bustle of its cities.
------------------------
Best quote I've seen so far - nicely said.
Over the last few years I've had the great fortune to have been able to travel to London, Berlin, and parts of Australia. In each location, I sort of ducked down on the fact that I was an American, due to the bad reputation our country earned thanks to Bush. I didn't want anyone overseas to think I was a "typical" conservative, xenophobic, closed-minded Bushite. And so I walked around not speaking much lest my American accent "give me away". Terrible!
NOW, next time I go abroad I'll be able to smile with pride as I say, "Oh, yes, I'm American. Why yes, I did vote for Obama!" :-)
Does anyone have an update as to why Missouri hasn't been called by anyone but MSNBC but 100% is reporting?
So the only state taht the model got worng was Indiana? Wow that is amazing.
Any new polls?
I grabbed two copies of the NY Times early this morning. The Washington Post was already gone.
Prop 8 means there are thousands of people in California tonight with their lives destroyed by the political will of their neighbors, while those neighbors wildly celebrate. Yesterday, discrimination was only moved a little farther along the road to its elimination in this world.
A great need exists for sober self-understanding and the defeat of ignorance. This is an election to be understood by adults, as you, Nate, and your crew have amply demonstrated. Thank you, and expect me to keep coming back here for some time.
Nate, you should be congratulated on producing the definitive go-to site for this election. Fantastic work. The paper you coauthored with Gelman was the best guide to the evening I've seen.
Now that I won't be checking this site every hour for updates, maybe I'll start getting more work done. Though I would like to hear your thoughts on further analysis on GA and MN.
Tim said...
"Did Real Joe reveal the surprise?"
Yes he did. He has revealed this morning that he is just as much of a homophobic idiot as he was yesterday.
if i'm doing my math right....
msnbc has chambliss winning with 1835260, out of 3685220, for 49.8005546% of the vote, with 99% of precincts in.
run off, right? (if this holds or goes lower) thank god for the libertarian! (at 3%)
Quote of the Day
"Well, the truth is, Brian, we can't solve global warming because I fucking changed light bulbs in my house."
-- Sen. Barack Obama, quoted in Newsweek's special election issue, during debate preparations on how he wanted to answer if Brian Williams asked him, "What's a personal thing that you've done that's green."
What is going on with NC? Why is nobody calling it?
Nate,
On September 17, you had Obama at 249.7, a losing number, to be sure. Five days later, you had him at 311.5, and he never dropped below 305.8 after that. Could you go back and review your analysis and tell us how this remarkable shift occurred in so short a time?
Best,
Steve Gietschier
Florissant, MO
Nate, I only wish you could have been here in Grant Park - it's where Chicagoans belonged last night. Especially you.
And your predictions - SPOT ON! I am in awe. Congratulations for always being well-employed from here on out! You've schooled the experts.
Tim said...
"Did Real Joe reveal the surprise?"
Yeah... that he had no surprise.
Nate - I'd like to know your opinion on the fact that there seem to be less total votes in this election than in 2004. This seems completely wrong. Are there millions of uncounted votes somewhere?
CNN, for example, is giving a total of 120 million at the moment, which is 2 million less than in 2004, with 97% of nationwide precincts reporting. Most people were expecting at least 130 million votes in this election.
awesome. makes me wish to be somewhere with other people who're celebrating.
thank you so much, nate, for your insightful analysis. i went through all the states early this morning (because i was too excited to sleep), and checked them against your final predictions -- man, you were right on in a lot of cases. impressive.
thank you too, sean, for the amazing reports from the road, and brett for the beautiful images.
i learned a lot from this site.
I had a girl give me a high-five and scream PHILLIES! because I was wearing my Phils hat outside the White House. What a year.
I'm thinking Real Joe's surprise is that he exiled himself to Canada.
The problem with initiatives such as Prop 8 is that gays jumped the gun on the wedge issue of marriage. The last four years or so have been the absolute wrong time to be pushing an agenda that so much of the country is afraid of. The way to win a political battle is to bide your time and then jump on the opportunity at the right moment. Pushing the gay marriage issue at this moment in time has set back the possibility for many years to come.
Nate, I saw similar jubilance in DC.
I was in the U Street corridor and the mood was so utterly joyful. There were crowds running through the streets, black, white, young, old. Drunk kids high-fiving smiling cops. Nobody was destructive or angry that I could see.
I had just seen the Flobots play at the 9:30 club. The band came out and danced in the streets with the fans after the show. They stopped in the middle of their set so we could all watch Obama's victory speech... it was neat to see one of my favorite bands as star-struck as I was, staring upwards at our next president on a giant projection screen and forgetting they were even on stage.
Kevin, prop. 8 may pass this year, but 18-29's voted against it 63-37. History is on our side.
I'm a straight man in SoCal with a gay boss and a couple of gay coworkers who are just great people to be around. There are still just a few too many older people out there who haven't had those sorts of experiences.
Anyway, I'm choosing to let the passage of prop. 8 serve as a bitter reminder that progress is never instant. But we WILL continue to march forward and we will ultimately persevere.
Why can't I quit you? I know it's over but I keep coming back to your website. I really need to get a non-blog life. Oh, and thanks for being there. You had me at 538!
Elizabeth,
NC might be counting absentee mail in ballots and you there may be a good number of provisionals which people have a time to bring info to certify.
run off, right? (if this holds or goes lower) thank god for the libertarian! (at 3%)
Politico says a runoff is likely in GA.
Also, the AP has yet to call GA for McCain.
nerpzillicus - thanks for those numbers. Does that include the entire early vote, though? Not that it really matters; I guess McCain has the state and the senate runoff happens either way (there is no way in hell early voters favoured Chambliss, none).
It was teh crazy here in Boston as well. Strangers hugging on the street, reminded me a lot of what I saw when the Sox beat the Yankees to go the series.
My two takeaways from the night:
As other people have mentioned, this is a hollow victory in the sense that the culture wars are alive and well. It's not just the anti-marriage propositions, it's the fact that Bachmann is still a federal representative and Chambliss may not even face a runoff.
Secondly, and none of the Republican pundits have yet to man up to this, but the most beautiful part of the Obama's acceptance speech -- the part that made it a speech for the ages -- was his recounting of Lincoln Republicanism ending with "I will be your President too." We can only hope that the Licoln-arm of the Republican party wins their coming internal-battle. I'm not holding my breath.
trammaxa: The upcoming internal struggle for the direction of the Republican party.
Nate - TY for doing such a great job - -so often it was your site that really got me through - -well done! you should be proud - i really believe you had a huge part in this historic event!!
When I saw pictures of Obama's rallies and speeeches, I saw the America that I live in.
When I saw pictures of McCain's rallies and speeches, I saw an America that I don't recognize.
I knew which one I wanted to win. And I got it.
I don't know what this means for the country either, specifically.
We have so many issues that must be addressed as a nation right now. It's hard to say how the energy picture, the health care picture, the national security picture, etc. was changed yesterday.
I hope that it means we can start addressing those issues, though. If only by having the conversation.
Great article on Palin, even worse than reported!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/palin-once-greeted-mccain_n_141394.html
I was wondering about MO and NC too...MSNBC is calling MO for McCain with a a 6k delta, but not calling NC which is showing a 14k advantage for Obama?
Can someone explained to me what happened to the near 30 million ballots of early votes? You trying to say only 90 million came out to vote yesterday? You trying to say less people voted this time around? that doesn't jive with the lines and intensity of this election.
Nate said: "Good luck finding a newspaper this morning."
I'm an expat living in the UK. The Indian Muslim guys who run my corner shop know I'm an American and an Obama supporter. Today when I popped around for milk they had saved ALL of the major papers for me. Tears!
I'm going to have a little girl right around Inauguration Day. She's going to be born in England but I'll teach her all about our wonderful country-- I would have regardless of the outcome. Now with my stack of mementoes and this big win, the lessons will be that much sweeter. God Bless America. I can't wait to come home and get to work.
sgietsch, if we had not voted to have Nate remove the Convention bump correction, McCain would never have been ahead.
real joe's surprise
eh ..
he just took credit for indiana going blue ... perhaps he lives there, can't remember
no biggie
back to the celebartion
we're all feelin' opbri
the surprise was indiana
Coleman-Franken goes to recount. Could take a month according to Sec of State.
I was in much more residential Columbia Heights and there was such joy in the air. Cabs were hooking, people were shouting. Its a very diverse neighborhood, this blacks, young whites, and Hispanics and all the walls were down. Everyone you passed on the streets would celebrate with you.
I hate when anyone in the media talks about a "mob" or something like that. There was nothing negative about this. It was just a spontaneous celebration. Nate is right; there was no anger or vindictiveness. It was a palpable bliss that something so amazing could happen in this country.
gj everynate. Your simulations were incredibly accurate, and the site a delight to visit everyday for the last two and a half months. Good luck with the next one.
Nate, your projections were spot on. GREAT WORK. (well except for indiana, but no one really saw that coming)
I'm really upset about prop 8 and I'm surprised that Oregon and Alaska senate races still might go republican.
Well, Barack Obama is a first step. The gay rights movement is going to be set back for years, which is sad. Hard to believe African american support of Prop 8 is part of the reason it passed when I'm sure gay americans overwhelmingly supported obama.
makes me angry that a minority group who has struggled so much in our history could so easily cast a vote for more discrimination.
Bachmann won....damn.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/11/house_update_ba_1.html
hey guys what is up with MN. franken just closed within 400 votes.
I stayed glued to the TV all evening. When Jesse Jackson cried, I bawled like a baby. They were tears of joy. When I saw Oprah crying, I started up again. I think I was crying because we are very near the end of a long, strange trip called the Bush Administration. When Barack spoke, I cried some more and pumped my fists in the air. Then I went to bed. I can sleep now. Thank you so much, 538, for keeping me sane throughout this whole election mayhem.
thanks Nate. So is MO already gone for sure? I was holding up hope.
The Condi Rice press conference was very touching. She teared up.
I am dying to see Hannity tonight his head exploding. But I think all that hatred is too much of a downer for me.
Prop 8 does suck, I just don'tget it.
A quick suggestion on the future of fivethirtyeight: I think you guys should do a poll by poll analysis of how close each one was to the actual.
Prop 8 is dark cloud over today's victories, but it can be fixed. Put it on the ballot, again and again if necessary. As other people have said, history is on the good guys side here. It's just a matter of time.
thank goodness for a new thread - I no longer have to stick to rational argument!
justsomeguy - how did your day go?
sorry about prop 8. And Bachmann. And Stevens by the way.
And Nate, hope you got some sleep. I am numerically challenged compared to most on this site. How the hell you did all that maths I don't know, but god you're good!
Blogger Joseph Wright said...
"The problem with initiatives such as Prop 8 is that gays jumped the gun on the wedge issue of marriage. The last four years or so have been the absolute wrong time to be pushing an agenda that so much of the country is afraid of. The way to win a political battle is to bide your time and then jump on the opportunity at the right moment. Pushing the gay marriage issue at this moment in time has set back the possibility for many years to come."
You probably would have said the same thing in the early 1960s about civil rights. There is no time not to stand against discrimination. Now is the time.
Nate, that was beautiful.
Congratulations, Nate. You really nailed it with your predictions on both the electoral college and the popular vote.
Josh said...
"hey guys what is up with MN. franken just closed within 400 votes."
It is going to be recounted.
Franken is now just 300 votes down in Minnesota. I know it says that 100% of precincts are in but clearly they are still tabulating early/absentee votes.
http://election.cbsnews.com/election2008/state.shtml?state=MN
In Oregon, Smith now leads Merkley by 20,000 but there are plenty of precincts to report in Democratic areas.
In Georgia, Chambliss has fallen below 50%. We have a run off.
In Alaska, they are fucking retards. Let them secede.
but I was surprised to see a really positive contribution from, of all people, Hillbuzz.
What else could they do? No sympathy for those morons.
To the guy in Manhattan... I went to 5 stands/bodegas/markets/etc. without luck either.
I go to Columbia, and we get ~500NYT's delivered here throughout campus every morning. By 7:30 AM I was told they were gone... Got lucky, and went to a class where there was a MINT edition right under my chair.
Lucky day.
mrs b-
no real crisis all day, lots of little stuuf with voting machines and a few republican election judges had to be talked down, but it went well, all in all.
wv- viplabia - ?Oprah?
I jumped in a buddy's car shortly after the election was called and headed for the White House from Arlington.
I am a cynic. There were people who seemed to be celebrating for celebrating's sake. There were people who were clearly too intoxicated to understand the gravity of the situation.
But never have I seen such an environment of unabashed and unrestricted optimism. The crowds were overwhelmingly positive, amazingly diverse in race, age, and anything you can think of.
It was a beautiful thing.
I'm happy that Obama won, but I'll be a lot happier when the networks call NC for Obama. And I can't believe we'll probably be waiting until December to see if the Democrats off Coleman and/or Chambliss - although it's better than Franken and Martin losing outright!
Alaska is fucking unbelievable, and Prop 8 is a grade-A bummer. I'm hoping that the California Supreme Court finds the gay marriage ban to be an unconstitutional act of discrimination.
I would like to thank Nate for all the insightful analysis and touching articles. Also congratulations on the accurate predictions.
I would also like to thank all other contributors: Sean, Brett, and everyone who has been addicted to this site in this election cycle and bombarded it with intelligent/crazy/well-informed/weird/helpful/funny comments.
A little-known tidbit from last night's election. Here in Ct, question 1, calling for a constitutional convention, was defeated 60% to 40%. The "Yes" vote to approve the question was being pushed in large part by persons opposed to our Supreme Court's recent decision okaying gay marriage. So that right is preserved here in CT. There will be no referendum on the question in the near future.
JDL, Preston, CT
Hi all, my first post. Firstly thanks to Nate and the guys for a wonderful site and amazing work. As an observer in Ireland, I along with millions of people in the rest of the world, have watched this race with enthusiasm and hope. And I find myself overjoyed and inspired by Obama's result. I am however a little confused by the way results are reported and cannot find a map that actually shows which states are 100% officially reported. I am interested in the senate election results specifically although a few more electoral college votes for Obama would be luverly! What is the story with Georgia? And why is there (possibly) going to be such a delay with the remaining states? Is there any way to see a map or somesuch that shows which states are 100% reported? I have been looking at various govt sites and news sites and seem to be getting different reports (or no information!) so if someone would care to take the time to explain some of these things I would be very grateful.
I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate you all on your new next President, whether you voted for him or not, and to thank those that did vote for him. A wonderful day!
justsomeguy:
There was a big turnout of black voters in CA to vote for Obama. But the exit polls show that they voted massively in favour Prop 8, especially older black voters. They are responsible for Prop 8 passing. White voters voted against and Latino's split.
Minnesota senate:
Coleman: 1,211,403
Franken: 1,211,089
A few disappointments. Bachman, of course. Stevens. Prop. 8. The fact that Real Joe is a true f*ckwit homophobe. But the most disappointing of all is that Scotty Rasmussen was the closest pollster to the truth of this election.
We have to listen to that fat f*ck for another 4 years.
Thanks, Nate, Sean, Brett and other posters.
After 3 months here I am going back to life now.
PeteKent - you've been pwned by Hermance. Real Joe - drop dead you creep.
sgr:
That was beautiful, too!
Everything is so damn beautiful today!
Ya, this is the first time I have looked at Alaska - what a messed up stste.
So does anyone know how the Alaska special election works for Senator should Stevens win and resignn?
I would assume Palin will run - can Belich run again?
Nate; This campaign was historical! Following your work and see it come to fruition made it more special!! THANKS!!!
Please, Please listen to this. It is truly wonderful.
http://www.absoluteradio.co.uk/player/6221/president_obama___feeling_good.html
It was made by a radio station in the UK, and its amazing!!
Huge congratulations to everyone in the States. Everyone here in the UK is delighted!
James
kudos Nate and Sean! amazing job and wonderful site!
Any idea what is up with Georgia? Google News has it white again...?
To Nate: XKCD's mouse-over references you to day.
Maybe all those transplants to DC are button down...but lets not confuse it with DC.
Times like this, I miss living in DC. There's a real community spirit there...I remember seeing it after 9/11, when we all communicated silently how scared we were.
Of course, it doesn't hurt that the city went 93% for Obama.
WV: "keram": the sound of Sean Hannity's head exploding.
Rahm Emanual has been offered Chief of Staff.
Re California's Prop 8 bummer.
I have been telling my friends for weeks that if Prop 8 wins we should get up a petition for another amendment to the California Constitution. Defining marriage as between a red head and a Cuban cabana singer.
We would need about 700K registered CA voters to get it on the next ballot. My thought is it might make some of my fellow Californians think about what we did and how silly it is to try and say who can get married.
Or think up your own amendment. Who says we only need to try one? Maybe marriage should only be allowed between toasters and puppies?
Who wants to sign such a petition?
Cheers,
Trevin
It's important to note that the polls averaged together were close to perfect, with almost no exceptions. The only state I got wron in my final projection was Montana, assuming Missouri goes to McCain and NC to Obama. The %s are all dead-on also.
Rahm is a great choice, it bodes well for his other choices.
I also heard Powell turned down a role, too bad.
This is my first post --
1) Thank you so much to the folks who work on this site. Amazing.
2) I live in DC and it has, indeed been wonderful. A police officer told my boss today that he's not going to give any tickets today, because of the jubilance in the city.
3) I am heartbroken about Prop 8. It's just so terrible. And telling people to sit down and wait patiently for the rights that others enjoy is...well, ridiculous. If there's no movement now, there will be no movement later. we are an advance guard who will make the way for success later.
Here seems like as good a place as any to post my favorite quote from the entire election season:
In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
Sorry, crappy linking!!
Lets try again...
'President Obama - Feeling Good' by Absolute Radio
'President Obama - Feeling Good' by Absolute Radio
Thats better!!
James
Nate, dude, your predictions were almost entirely spot-on. I think you have a good future in punditry...
Well, this is about the end of my 538 crack addiction, so let me purge myself of a few 538 memes:
Polls tightening!! McCain SURGE!!!
I know someone whose wife is a PUMA in Pennsylvania who said all the union members are lying to pollsters saying they're going to vote for Obama because the unions run the polls. But everyone is voting MCCAIN!
McCain landslide!
ZOGBY SHOCK: McCain leads Obama 49-48 in poll...
"I think the dirty little secret is that McCain could win this in a landslide. I actually do. I think there is so much huff and puffery here about Obama, and the bloom has long ago gone off that rose." - Rush Limbaugh
Losing by over 7 million popular votes is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Get ready for President McCAIN, LIBS!!!!
Right.
I notice Nate, and 538 hasn't mentioned anything at all about Ted Stevens. This obviously a huge embarrassment for him, and Nate, and this site has destroyed its credibility for saying the Alaska seat was 100% safe for the DEMS.
100% safe means Stevens has a 0% chance of winning. Saying somebody has a 0% chance of winning, and then being wrong destroys your credibility.
The problem was you decided to inject your own bias into your model by getting rid of all the pre-conviction polls.
Instead of letting your unbias model handle the race you instead decided to change the rules and inject your own bias into your model.
I hope you have learned your lesson as your site certainly has cost itself a great deal of credibility by saying the Alsaska seat was 100% safe for the Democrats.
Maybe we should outlaw marriage for everyone...
when it was announced that he won, a collective cheer went up from all over brooklyn that i could hear out my window. i then spent the rest of the night at an impromptu party in the street. it was like that scene at the end of return of the jedi
[the one with the new footage] where you see shots of different planets across the galaxy partying to celebrate the defeat of the empire. it was awesome.
A little election coverage humor:
comic strip
LTL here...
I will admit Nate, I didn't want to believe a word of what you put on this site. I'm not statistician, so I couldn't imagine Obama winning by such HUGE margins. How could he when the rest of the media said otherwise? I came here several times a day, scared to hope that your numbers were correct. But dude... you were spot on! Job well done. I'm looking forward to whatever is to come of this site.
Now, back to lurking...
DC was absolutely nuts last night. I spent two hours hugging and high fiving random strangers on U street.
Trust me. I am as depressed as anyone about gay marriage being defeated again. But listen…Every time it gets closer and closer. The country is getting younger and younger. 100 years ago…Shoot, probably 50 years ago, very few people would have even dreamed that we’d see a black president. And look what happened yesterday. It’s won’t happen overnight. But I have no doubt that 50 years from now, gays will be able to get married in most of the states in America.
And 100 years from now, people will think America was pretty silly back in 2008 when gays lost the right to be married in California (and AZ and FL).
Who knows? In the 2108 election, we might even have a gay president with a “first spouse”. Let that blow your mind for a minute :-)
A troubled country sits under the command of a failed leader...unpopular and waging war in two distant lands, with an economy crushing the populace, and despair and hopelessness having replaced the vibrant optimism of the country. The military is firmly, resolutely behind the leader, despite mounting losses and humbling setbacks in the various military campaigns. Much of the military engagement has been at the whim of the nation’s leadership, a personal vendetta fueling one of the conflicts, while inept leadership has hampered the other. The country’s standing worldwide has slumped, and the leader is reduced to occasional scripted appearances, with little or no interaction with the press. His unpopularity stands in stark contrast to his absolute, unquestioned power.
Time for a coup d’etat? In some parts of the world, perhaps, but in this nation, it is time for an election. Every four years we hold a referendum on the leadership of our nation, and this year, we get to turn the bums out. The problems won’t all go with our outgoing president, but what a marvelous construct is our democracy. Without anyone reaching fora weapon, the most powerful man in this country, really the world, will cede his power to a person, in this case, not even of his own party. He will walk away from the highest office in the land with nary a backward glance. And in 4 years, we will consider the job done by the new president, and re-hire, or fire, him accordingly.
Watching democracy in action is breathtaking. It is easy to dismiss the quaintness of customs and traditions of a bygone era, but consider the documents and processes designed by our nation’s forefathers in the late 18th century, well over 200 years ago. The mechanisms for changing power, for limiting the duration of power, and the creation of numerous checks and balances to limit that power is perhaps man’s most impressive gift to the future. Sure, we will also hand over the miracle of flight, the internal combustion engine, linear accelerators, split atoms, and the thermos, but those inventions will all be upgraded and surpassed in some way. But what we witnessed last night....hard to improve on that.
And so it is, that troubled country, led by a failed president, in a single day of voting, an evening of counting those votes, and then an early morning speech by our next leader, infused with optimism and possibility, restored a measure of hope...without use of a weapon, or a drop of blood. Plenty of sweat, no doubt some prayers, and sore knuckles from knocking upon endless front doors were the tactics by which we replaced our leader. And so it has been for over 200 years, and with luck, so it will continue for centuries to come. We speak of our nation’s forefathers as characters in our history books, but last night, as they do every 4 years, they were alive once more, walking amongst us.
http://critpatriot.blogspot.com/
[ tyler curtain ] said...
I'm heartbroken about 8, but am glad about the celebrations nationwide for Obama.
I was talking among friends this morning about 8. I think it will be back on the ballot in 2010 (if not before), when Gavin Newsome runs for Governor and the Governator runs for Senatator against Barbara Boxer.
It will be WAR in California.
I would not have believed it if I did not see it myself, but in MY neighborhood in Salt Lake freaking City, Utah, there was cheering in the streets, cowbells and FIREWORKS when the networks announced that Obama won.
dennis580 said...
I notice Nate, and 538 hasn't mentioned anything at all about Ted Stevens. This obviously a huge embarrassment for him, and Nate, and this site has destroyed its credibility for saying the Alaska seat was 100% safe for the DEMS.
Dude... chill.
Even Homer nodded. The best mathematical model can't account for human variability. Since polls closed in AK at 1am EST, perhaps this is what happened:
AK voters see the writing on the wall early - PA was called around 9:30 EST. Palin was going down. Voters wanted to keep her around for 2012, so there was a last-minute Stevens/sympathy vote against Begich knowing that Stevens would be expelled from the Senate and Palin would likely run for his seat.
I mean, this could be all bizarre speculation, but with the news that came out in the 24 hours before the election - that one of the Stevens jurors skipped deliberations to go to the races - who knows what the hell AK voters were thinking about.
Nate was right on almost everything else - the EV, margin of victory, and even that the Franken-Coleman Senate race was tighter than {insert folksy Dan Ratherism here}... give him a break. He didn't claim he was perfect.
WV: numeolib. That's Nate. Srsly.
Where is Joe the Plumber??? Any word on his Congressional run?
I'm so glad that PA and OH did not fall for that bit of fools gold
Looks like your projection for the Presidential race was spot on, Nate. Well done. Hope you are registering your model down at the Patent Office!
And thanks for the all the sensible and insightful analysis over past months (including the On the Road posts from Sean). I have enjoyed checking into this site and look forward to seeing some of the "post-match" analysis.
And from here in the UK, congrats to President-Elect Obama too. I think the US have set the world a wonderful example of democracy. I'm sure implementing Mr Obama's change won't be easy, but as Winston Churchill said, "this isn't the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning."
Last time I promise...
(hangs head in shame!)
Feeling Good - President Obama
It is really inspiring...
James
any news on Zogby?
The stevens result is suspect, all the polls showed him losing by 20 points and there were more votes for the senate than president or congress.
Anyway there are still quite a few absentee ballots to count. If Stevens wins he won`t be seated per McConnel so I bet he resigns to save himself from expulsion.
Palin will probably run and no way would she lose. Anyway it would be the best way to get some cred if she ever expects to be a serious player in presidential politics.
Qira: "I am heartbroken about Prop 8. It's just so terrible. And telling people to sit down and wait patiently for the rights that others enjoy is...well, ridiculous. If there's no movement now, there will be no movement later. we are an advance guard who will make the way for success later."
Well said. Nice first post. Couldn't agree more.
The stevens result is suspect, all the polls showed him losing by 20 points and there were more votes for the senate than president or congress.
Anyway there are still quite a few absentee ballots to count. If Stevens wins he won`t be seated per McConnel so I bet he resigns to save himself from expulsion.
Palin will probably run and no way would she lose. Anyway it would be the best way to get some cred if she ever expects to be a serious player in presidential politics.
Actually Im not sure Palin would win
I mean Alaskans love PORK and she has more or less staked her career on being against it.
franken now behind by 700...
Johnkel24 described the National Anthem being sung at a victory rally in MO. We had it start spontaneously at a celebration with a fairly small group of Obama volunteers at the Raleigh, NC office on St. Mary's Street (pictured at #31 in the photo stream here:
http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/photos/story/1282531.html
I know everyone gave Michelle a hard time for saying the same thing, but I get it now...I have NEVER felt so patriotic.
McCain: "TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON! ... turn those machines back on..."
..fading away into the distance.
Dear website, two comments:
1. You could probably update the win percentage up to 100% for Obama.
2. I'd like to see a post-election analysis at some point describing how close the pollsters were. Is it safe to say Mason-Dixon has a Republican lean to it?
What's up with Georgia? Any word on Martin/Chambliss
joel said "Palin will probably run and no way would she lose. Anyway it would be the best way to get some cred if she ever expects to be a serious player in presidential politics."
Actually she won't need to run, she can just appoint herself. But while it would give her national exposure Senators rarely succeed in Presidential runs.
People in DC celebrating an Obama victory is GREAT NEWS...FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
runoff in georgia
The final vote tally won't be up for a few weeks or months. You can expect at least another 10 to 15 million votes to be added.
My first post:
thank you, Nate and Sean, for keeping us sane over the past few months. Truly. We used your site obsessively, passed it along to friends, consulted it late and night and early in the a.m.
We remain your devoted lurkers
Cat and David
Congratulations, 538! Nailed the EV projection right on the head. You proved to everyone that there is such a thing as statistical accuracy and mathematical ethics. I hope you expand your future political research into the forseeable future.
I promised myself if you got withing 20 EVs, I'd donate US$25. Yet your projection for Obama was within 3, the smallest amount of EVs any single state can have! Figured you deserved a tip for that.
It's just really sinking in today. I am still having trouble believing we actually pulled it off. I just got back at 6:30 last night from GOTV efforts in New Mexico, and I was listening to the first returns coming in on the radio. That was a long 10 hour drive, waiting for the polls to close. When NPR called Pennsylvania for Obama, I yelled so loud I think I may have scared nearby drivers. Now I'm seeing the front pages online, and the thought that we did it is just really taking hold.
Good thing I work for a newspaper. I'll grab one of each edition when I get in.
The next morning is as great as the night before.
There is much to be done but America has already taken a critical step forward. Congratulations to all who made this event possible.
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
There is word now that Prop 8 has not passed for sure since there are so many outstanding provisional ballots. I doubt it will change, but that would be great.
OHHH! Nate got the Stevens seat wrong - wow - one whole wrong pick in the entire election, when everything else is almost dead on accurate. Are you Zogby?
Throwing out the pre-conviction polls was exactly the right choice. The real question is, how could th epollsters have been so worng in AK?
@sherwick
Hope you got some sleep? Did you miss the surprise? Apparently it was Indiana..
I really am going to have to get a life now.
From what I saw the GAY rights agenda was turned aside everywhere, but there was a victory for Abortion Rights.
While I am a believer in traditional marriage and the need for society to protect it, I am troubled by the notion that folks would be motivated by bias against the people involved.
The same is true of Abortion. We should not be so callous to the people involved.
I do not think Obama will do much for Gay rights. He will try hard to run away from the Liberal label and he will use the traditonal Gay rights and African American Agendas to prove his independence.
Obama is a politician, he has feet of clay like they all do.
Where do you think he will compromise?
All the networks are still showing only 120 million total votes cast in the election.
That's less than 2004 and a lot less than expected.
WHAT'S GOING ON? WHERE ARE THOSE EXTRA 10 MILLION VOTES?
dan, that's not the final tally yet. I suspect Nate will be out by almost 10% in the end!
Clearly Nate was erring on the side of caution in repect of Obama's win percentage.
Nate will have to explain why he got it so wrong (so wrong, because it will be outside the margin of error).
Wait wait -- the AK Senate results do not "destroy Nate's credibility." Nate has been clear in all his writings that his poll analysis and projections are based on the polling samples being accurate snapshots of the likely electorate, subject to Nate's judgment on the polls' methodology and his model's interpretation of how polls and results have historically compared. What looks to have happened in Alaska is some bad polling methodology (with respect to sample populations) that was heretofore unknown -- or, a polling sample population that for whatever reason was habitually misleading pollsters with false answers on the desire to reelect the convicted Stevens. That's not a partisan bias; that's a failure of the model to account for what ended up happening in AK. I'm sure Nate can explain it better than this, and I'm sure he is secure against this baseless charge about credibility.
DC was absolutely magical last night. I'm so proud and thankful to have gotten to experience it. I will tell my grandchildren about last night.
Thanks for all your hard work on this site. Hands down the best place to stay on top of the election!
broberts said...
"Actually she won't need to run, she can just appoint herself. But while it would give her national exposure Senators rarely succeed in Presidential runs."
Why do you say that broberts? I thought it had to go to a special election if Stevens leaves his seat.
HUGE Obama VICTORY is ....EXCELLENT NEWS!!!!!!!! for John MCCAIN!!!!
Okay seriously nice job Nate almost spot on. Only visible fuck up was the Begich Senate seat projection (WTF Alaska?)
North Carolina was just called by state officials in North Carolina for Obama. 364 Electoral Votes. 10 Bush States flipped.
Very nearly half of Ohio fell for Joe the Plumber.
The GOP is becoming a much more populist party and will rely on symbols like Joe and leaders like Sarah for the time being.
@michiganmaine:
No, there's a big difference. A large chunk of people have long known that blacks are as human as everyone else and therefore deserve the same rights. This is an irrefutable truth that would inevitably be realized in a country that believes in freedom. The majority of Americans have not been convinced that being gay is anything more than a lifestyle choice. Most Americans do not see gay marriage as a right any more than they see polygamy as a right. I would venture to guess that most gay marriage advocates are themselves against polygamy, which is itself a hypocrital position. At any rate, I never said one should not stand up against discrimation towards gays. I'm talking only about the issue of marriage. This was the wrong time to bring this issue forward. Like I said, it has set back the possiblity of this happening for longer than it otherwise could have if people had only waited for the right time. Suit yourself if you'd rather put more energy into it than was necessary.
Here's the best info I can find on every remaining Senate race that is not Oregon related:
Alaska: 40,000 absentee ballots to be counted over the next ten days. Stevens ~+4,000 right now.
Georgia: Likely but not definitely a runoff with uncounted votes in large Democratic counties.
Minnesota: Mandatory recounts with partisans and lawyers on both sides.. it will be ugly and this is legitimately 50/50 at the moment and may go undecided long past the runoff in Georgia.
What the hell is going on in Oregon?
Hi Mrs B, yes I saw it. IN was a surpirse!
I would like to see a timetable of when states were called last night - it all happened so quickly and I can't remember in what order the critical states were called. I think it was when Obama got OH and then the Western states closed immediately after, but it's all a bit of a blur!
You are one damn fine statistician.
Zogby gets in one last dig on Nate Silver:
"The final results negated questions raised about cell phones, the Bradley Effect, respondents who are not truthful, and all other urban legends that have been circulated by those who have never conducted a poll and who doubt the professionalism of those who are in our field. To my colleagues in the polling industry, a hardy congratulations from all of us at Zogby International."
Screw off John Zogby! Thanks for having the bounciest, crappiest polling of the whole cycle.
broberts said...
Actually she won't need to run, she can just appoint herself. But while it would give her national exposure Senators rarely succeed in Presidential runs.
Incorrect. After Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the Senate when he resigned to be Governor, the appointment law was changed to prevent future weird nepotistic stuff.
If Palin wants to fill Stevens' seat, she has to run herself.
At least that's what I read.
Celebrating in DC is GREAT NEWS FOR FREEDOM!
What happens now on Prop 8 - can the Supreme Court rule it unconstitutional as it is discrimination or are they allowed to try to over ride it at another election - if so how long do we have to wait to try to repeal this ?
Since no one else has come through with anything quite like this...
This is good news... FOR JOHN MCCAIN.
and
The McCain Surge will take place in the November 5th voting in Alabama, Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc. It's the PUMA Democrats who got the text messages to hold their votes for the 5th that will be the McCain SURGE!!!
Christ, I guess when people can't buy into evolution, the big bang or dinosaurs, and do buy into a 6000 year old world and a preordained end of it, you can't expect them to face facts and deal with reality in anything.
Fittingly: xessty: The feeling you get when a 2 year election cycle breaks your way when no one believed it could for most of the 2 years. Or a recreational drug that makes light and raves fun.
Also, I'm very disappointed that 8 passed in CA. However, as many have pointed out, time is on 'our' side.
I'm not gay, but I sincerely believe that gays should be able to have a life of misery just like straight people are!
broberts - no, Alaska doesn't let the governor appoint to vacant Senate seats. (Because of that one time the governor prior to Palin appointed his own daughter). If Palin wants to be in the Senate she'll have to fight her way there in a special election. The governors of Delaware and Illinois, however, have some appointments to make right about now.
I'm still concerned about whether all the votes have, or even will be, counted... Hopefully in a month's time we'll know for sure, esp. here in GA.
jt - god yes, I've had Michelle Obama's words in my head since last night. My husband and one of my dearest and oldest friends have both told me that this is about the first time they've ever been proud to be American. Another friend who's a long-term US resident has just now decided to file for citizenship. Even I (and my resident's card hasn't even arrived yet) have started thinking of myself as maybe being American rather than just being someone who's lived here for a year or so.
I should have mentioned in my last post that I do not believe the government should not be meddling in issues of marriage to begin with, heterosexual or otherwise, any more than it should tell you what religion you must practice. Marriage should be between you and your partner, recognized by your friends, family, church or community. The right to be free of government interference in matters like this is what we should be pushing for.
Prop 8 is a massive disappointment but I truly believe it's just a matter of time.
That said, I'm glad to hear how wide spread the street celebrations were. In New York and Brooklyn it was remarkable! I will never forget it.
Empowerment... best word I've seen to describe everything.
Guys, what happened in Alaska?
Alaska is truly screwed up. If Stevens resigns the constitution says the gov can fill Senate vacanicies, the people of Alaska passed a proposition that the must be a run off election. Who realy knows what will happen, but it could get interesting.
This election debunked a couple of theories -- One the Bradley Effect (non-existent) and Two the Theory of the Woods (wait till next time!).
Obama's share of the popular vote (538 projection): 52.3%
Obama's share of the popular vote (results to date): 52.3%
Nice, Nate. Real nice.
Nate, Sean, & Brett - Excellent Work, thank you for sharing your time and effort. I wish you the best of luck.
I live in DC and was out dancing in the streets last night too (in Adams Morgan). The last paragraph summarizes it eloquently. There was no hostility, just utter joy.
Several buses had gotten trapped in the gathering, but people let them through, high-fiving the drivers (who pulled their Obama hats out too) as the pulled through. The Police, realizing the celebration to be non-threatening, closed down the street for a while and let people enjoy it before trying to restore normalcy. Hours later, I finally had to close the windows to sleep because of all the happy honking and yelling from outside. It was a truly wonderful night.
mattus, the pop vote isn't in yet. Obama will likely end up with over 53%. Also Nate will be out with the EC - probably outside the margin of error.
WE DESERVE AN EXPLANATION!
mattus-
WOW!
I really have a hangover, I am going to take a nap.
Long time reader, first time poster.
I was outside the White House at 2:30 this morning - When a collection of revelers in the crowd began singing the Star Spangled Banner.
What a beautiful night. What a beautiful moment.
Sherwick-
Nate was pretty dead on. Indiana was a surprise, looks like folks underpolled Lake County.
Palin doesn't seem to have too bright a future in the GOP.
From http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com
"NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here's what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP's new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee. Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%. Look for more from this survey later today. "
I was watching in a restaurant/bar in London, lots of expats, and lots of Brits with a worrying level of election nerdiness (I'm in the latter category).
I must say, I thought McCain's concession hit exactly the right note - gracious and generous. He offered public condolances to the Obamas for the loss of their grandmother, and was humble and statesmanlike. Although I would have hated him to have won, it reminded me that he wouldn't have been a terrible President (he would have been a marked improvement on Bush, and was better than the rest of the Republican primary field, from a leftwinger's point of view).
His speech was sadly marred by the extremely ungracious - OK, outright vicious - response of the crowd he addressed. I half expected to see pitchforks, flaming torches and nooses when they panned over the crowd.
Of course, Obama's speech was sheer brilliance. Not just the content, but the sheer beauty of the wordcraft: the cadence and word choices and the poetry of it all. His motif of the 106-year-old lady in Georgia as a prism through which the achievements of the last American century could be viewed moved me deeply. All I'm saying is, if we thought that was good, just wait for the inaguration: I think this Presidency is off to a great start already.
All in all, it took my mind off being charged £25 for a blocked view of the screen, two chicken wings and a shitty muffin at 5am (and the privilege of being charged £4 per bottle of beer - Chicago Rib Shack Knightsbridge, you just made my list).
if Nate's outside the moe on the EC vote, then that deserves an explanation IMHO!
This was history in the making and reaffirms my belief that we live in the greatest country in the world.
WV: pitem
"I would venture to guess that most gay marriage advocates are themselves against polygamy, which is itself a hypocritical position"
Great observation.
These amendments are carefully crafted to exclude polygamy and by inference even bestiality. No joke.
There is some hypocrisy operating here.
And irony.
What do you get when you combine Genetic Engineering and Abortion? Answer: No Homosexuals!
Gay folk: ultimately who will better preserve and protect you? The heedless embrace of the liberal agenda is not always wise.
Prop 8 defines marriage as between only a man and a woman, but it does not repeal the CA constitution's equal rights requirements.
Because it requires the CA government not to recognize same-sex marriage, it may actually result in the CA government being prohibited from officially recognizing any marriage!
IMHO, that would be the best possible outcome -- government has no business discriminating against people because of their marital status.
nola58 said...
Guys, what happened in Alaska?
Stevens is a disgrace to our party
the people who have voted for this man are crazy
Zogby is lucky b/c turnout mirrored RVs b/c it was so massive.
Publius. 100% is 100%. It would be one thing had McCain won the election as 538 still gave McCain a 1.1% chance to win the election, but its quite another thing when you say something is 100% for sure. That means he was saying it was impossible for Stevens to win.
A Stevens win will be far more damaging for this sites credibility then a McCain win would have been.
Its Nates own fault though because he decided to get rid of the pre-conviction polls in the the Stevens-Begich race. Had he let his model do its job instead of deciding which polls it could use he would not have had pie on his face right now, and destroyed the credibility of his site.
There is nothing wrong with Nate's model except when he decides to inject his own bias into late in the process, and its sad he had to ruin such the credibility of such a great site.
AP: California same-sex marriage ban approved by voters
WOOT WOOT !!
publius: it appears to be a little murky, see last few paragraphs in http://alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/1-talk-of-the-tundra/264-is-palin-setting-herself-up-take-stevens-senate-seat.html
Nate for President in 2016! I can't tell you how much I've enjoyed this site.
Pete Kent: What do you get when you combine Genetic Engineering and Abortion? Answer: No Homosexuals!
Don't care which Pete Kent you are, you have just put yourself beyond the pale.
Bog off, as we say in the UK.
---"Nate was pretty dead on. Indiana was a surprise, looks like folks underpolled Lake County."
I volunteered in Lake County and out goal from our field organizers was 80,000 margin in Lake county guaranteed IN. 70,000 put it IN in good shape. We pulled 71,100 margin in Lake county. We hammered Lake county yesterday going door to door.
Finally, the 21st century can start!
Let the lawsuits begin over Prop 8.
Your going to get spanked if it gets to the Supreme Court and all of the country will end up with gay marriage as they will strip away the state right to legislate it and make it a civil rights issue.
It may take a bit but justice will be served.
dennis580: Please explain to me how polls shifting by 20 points in a day, suggesting an overwhelming shift in the electorate towards Stevens is Nate injecting bias?
real joe: I hate feeding the trolls, but I really hope that every day of your life you pat yourself on the back for celebrating discrimination. If you are so proud, you should shout it out for all time.
I think the Bradley effect has been superseded by the Bachmann/Stevens effect, where voters will tell pollsters that they aren't going to vote for nutjobs/felons, fearing the social pressure, but being the ignorant idiots they are, planned on doing it anyway.
Joseph Wright said...
"I should have mentioned in my last post that I do not believe the government should not be meddling in issues of marriage to begin with, heterosexual or otherwise, any more than it should tell you what religion you must practice. Marriage should be between you and your partner, recognized by your friends, family, church or community. The right to be free of government interference in matters like this is what we should be pushing for."
Wrong again. Marriage gives certain privileges to those who are able to take part in the institution. Some people are barred for life from getting those privileges.
Two possibilities here, and both--contrary to your earlier posting--require fighting now:
1). Marriage could simply no longer be recognized by any state. (Not really a workable possibility.)
2). All people could be allowed to marry.
Not saying this isn't a complicated issue. But equality is something we need to fight for now.
The most impressive thing for me about Obama's speech is the almost off-hand way he began it; as if he was continuing a conversation that had been briefly interrupted.
It was so natural, so unforced, so intimate (especially considering the size of the crowd he was addressing) that it reinforced for me the absolute perfection of his fitness to do the job that the Presidency needs to do right now.
How Good Was The Model?
Nate did a great job of predicting the overall popular vote, but how did The Model do in predicting the margins in each of the 51 separate contests?
Using the best info we have to date (remember that OR and WA have lots of ballots left to count), I compared the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the predicted margins between 539 and Pollster.com. Here's what I got:
539 RMSE: 6.04
Pollster.com RMSE: 5.18
Comparing to RCP is trickier, since RCP doesn't even try to give a number for some races. These are the races with the least polling, so those account for some of the worst errors in both 538 and pollster.com. If we just use the subset of races in which RCP did give an average, then we get these errors:
538 subset RMSE: 3.33
RCP RMSE: 3.60
Pollster.com subset RMSE: 3.27
It appears that for all of Nate's fancy math with weighting, house effects, and demographics, the simpler approach of Pollster.com did better. Rather disappointing for us 538 devotees.
That said, I think that Nate's analysis was better at tracking the race earlier in the campaign, especially when there weren't very many polls out. But I hope that Nate is able to use this outcome to tweak his model better for 2012.
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