Michael McDonald’s great early voting website has the totals.
31,268,357 voters have cast votes early in America, which represents 25.3% of the total of all ballots cast in 2004. Nobody doubts we are headed for an absolute record turnout in this election.
22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election, then 138,970,474 Americans will end up casting ballots.
[Chicago, Dawn]
Here are battleground states with early voting, followed by the percentage of the total 2004 vote that represents:
CO: 1,704,280; 79.3% of 2004
FL: 4,377,774; 57.3% of 2004
GA: 2,020,829; 60.9% of 2004
IA: 481,179; 31.6% of 2004
IN: 668,868; 26.6% of 2004
MT: 184,632; 40.5% of 2004
NM: 192,229; 73.2% of 2004
NC: 2,623,838; 73.9% of 2004
NV: 561,776; 67.6% of 2004
ND: 76,496; 24.2% of 2004
OH: 1,456,364; 25.2% of 2004
VA: 465,962; 14.5% of 2004
WV: 166,353; 21.6% of 2004
The numbers for Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Florida are eye-popping, all of these states have had more than half the vote from 2004 in. All of these states were won by George Bush, and they account for 74 electoral votes. We know that Barack Obama has placed an overwhelming ground force in place to generate early voting, and we can be confident that the early voters in these states are banking a large lead for Barack Obama.
In Georgia, for example, African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.
In Nevada, Clark County has seen a 21.4-point gap between Dems and Reps. Washoe, which turned blue due to the tremendous organizing effort, has a 16.8-point gap between Dems and Reps.
In New Mexico, the Dem-Rep gap is 20 points in early voting. In West Virginia, 24 points. In Iowa, 18 points. In Florida, where Republicans held a 2.8% edge in 2004 early and absentee voting, Dems now hold an 8.3% edge.
Only in Colorado is the gap somewhat closer, with Dems holding a mere 1.8% lead in early voting figures. However, unaffiliateds/independents have produced a fairly high 26.4% portion of the early vote, and Obama has dominated the ground game in Colorado to get early voting accomplished; a lot of those undeclared voters are likely Obama-ID'd voters from all the contacts.
Early voting has changed the game this year; every day was election day. Obama's verdict: "Come and catch me, Senator McCain."
*_*
Programming note: Brett and I are in Grant Park and hope to bring you some good photos and a good liveblog of all the day's events. I will be on Rachel Maddow's radio show for a segment this evening to talk about the ground game, so please tune in.
257 comments
DFTT please
@ mule rider -- Wow. Just... wow. After all that... that?
On a semi-related topic, its funny to me that in some of the comment sections in Free Republic and Fox News, I've seen people proudly proclaiming that the polls were all wrong because 'Today, all the racists of the world will unite!'
Seriously, if *that* is your battle cry, you know that you screwed something up badly. It's too bad John McCain doesn't know how to use a computer, as I'd be interested to see what his real thoughts are about his supporters after this is all over. I wonder if he will be just as proud of all the racists as he was in the third debate...
New exit poll: respondents in Oiwa said that their d20s roll the number 1 20% of the time!
"calls started an hour ago"
Wow, McPalin is really running an organized, early-acting campaign.
@jj
History and Classical Studies here. I know who Homer is. Go be snotty somewhere else.
I found college got in the way of an education.
McCain at 6.3 on intrade.
@ jj -- "New exit poll: respondents in Oiwa said that their d20s roll the number 1 20% of the time!"
This is GREAT news! For my GANGLY TROLL!!!!!1!
Dumb@$$ libs
NONE OF THE EXIT POLLS ARE RIGHT!!! YOU DUMB LIBERAL F*CKS!!!!
Those who said economy most important:
56O, 42M
robo calls directed at Hispanic in FL saying that Obama was endorsed by Hugo chavez and fidel castro....calls started an hour ago....made by the mccain campaign....
Per CNN...
Boy, can't wait to hear what they come up with tomorrow!
Enough of this crap, signing off and headed to the bar to celebrate Obama's victory
McCain: "TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!!"
Servius,
How far out there do I need to get before you realize I'm taking the complete and utter piss out of you?
How's that vein? Still throbbing?
You know my sock puppet is here. I am on type key.
One hour to go!
beek said...
"calls started an hour ago"
Wow, McPalin is really running an organized, early-acting campaign.
++++++++++++
ya no kidding....kinda of stunned that it took them that long to try this....course they probably didnt want to be caught so they try to sneak it in towards the end....only thing I can think of anyways..
Obama Intrade
94.4
McCain Surge !!
PPP had McCain winning Whites (not just White Men) 56-42 and still had Obama winning by 6 points in their last poll.
If McCain is indeed winning White Men 58-39, I got to believe he will do better among White Women thereby getting the White Vote to an M+14 or lesser.
Conclusion: If these exit polls of VA are accurate Obama will win VA by better than 6 points.
Matthews: "People are carrying their patriotic hearts on their chests."
Mix your metaphors much, Chris?
WP: boapha - surname of the ex-frontman of the Dead Kennedys
SHERWICK said...
McCain: "TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!!"
++++++++
HA I love that movie....
This is like waiting for Christmas morning. Except there is a 1% chance Santa Clause turns up dead.
petekent said...
You know my sock puppet is here
yes pete
we know
Ed Rendell better have all the cemetaries in Philly voting Obama! I wanna see some Dem machine politics a la the good old days with Daley.
T minus 53 minutes for real joe announcement.
You STUPID liberal f*ck!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!! DONT BELIEVE THE EXIT POLLS!!!!!
See ya, Mule. I doubt there will be much left here toi jaw over in a few hours . . .
This Texas Yeller Dawg just peed on the floor in excitement.
I'm going to go buy my the smoothest, most expensive sippin' tequilla for my Obama victory party tonight. Might pee on the floor again if someone doesn't take me out.
If those Economy exit numbers of 56-42 in favor of Obama are correct there is no way McCain crosses 44-45% of the national vote and no way Obama gets under 52-53% of the national vote
(He has a 2:1 edge on Iraq and very likely a lead on Health Care as well..All McCain has is Terrorism at 9% overall to hang on)
I'm cracking up watching Keith O and Matthews. I don't Gregory is going to provide the buffer. It's like he's not even there.
Keith is trying to contain himself. But is won't be long before he pisses off Matthews. Can't wait to see the first piss off.
Hilrious!
CNN-
mccain campaign stoic and realistic about election....It would of been tough for any repub....Still optimistic though
already in withdrawl.
new thread
CNN says exit polls say top issue for voters:
Economy 62
Iraq 10
Terrorism 9
Healthcare 9
Wait, what? Taxes weren't #1? "Having a hottie for VP" wasn't #2? Too bad, John. You bet on the wrong horse for the last time.
All the caveats (incomplete data on exit polls so far, they might show Dem bias, might underrepresent early voters)
Taking the % of voters on each of the 3 top issues broken down so far (economy, Iraq, terrorism) - that part of those surveyed would be Obama 46%, McCain 35%.
I have not seen a breakdown on health care (9% 1st issue) but that will be huge for Obama.
And what the top issue for the other 10% we do not know.
But likely the early horserace exit survey so far shows around a 10% PV lead.
@ pentkent the real -- We can tell the difference between the two of you. Your sockpuppet is like the embodiment of Triumph the Insult Dog. You can tell it's him because every post he ends by yelling, "FOR ME TO POOP ON!"
servius, El Oso, you guys won't get along so just cut it
PA should be DEM if the voting problems in urban areas don't hurt them too much.
collou - Mispelling of popular children's cartoon Caillou
Are el oso and troll!petekent the same person? >.>
Blogger Servius said...
@jj
History and Classical Studies here. I know who Homer is. Go be snotty somewhere else.
I found college got in the way of an education
Homer was
Was.
I said I was not talking about the Simpsons character.
FFS if you don't know who I'm talking about go to Wiki and fake it rather than make some BS non denial denial insult.
What am I talking about In your insult you said you knew who he IS but didn't mention who he was in the hope I would not call you on it. But your concience gave it away when you typed IS
Heres where you geep up your pathetic insult BS by calling me delusional. And you response after that will be to say you are sorry for me. AND you wont ever make a response to what I said
Namely you mentioned authors that noone had heard of, never mentioned what they actually said. claimed superiority and told someone else to go and read then knowing you will be dead and gone when they realise you were talking Bullshi, and then when someone calls you on it you claim equivelent education ina lame attempt to stay in superiour position, except you f****d that up too
Yes this is me laughing my head of at you, you sad pathetic little man.
Drudge: TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...
Note: He doesn't mention Virginia!
el oso broke character, nvm....
New exit p[oll. 80% of McDonells customers in Virginia said that they were "big boned"
it's crazy, for every troll disappearing back into agony there's a new one appearing. The problem is they've tried all kinds of different BS and it still won't work...
@jj and Servius: You are currently engaged in the academic equivalent of a slapfight. It is making you both look bad. Stop it.
Garnett/136 said...
@jj and Servius: You are currently engaged in the academic equivalent of a slapfight. It is making you both look bad. Stop it.
Its cool Garnett. I've made my point, and I'll ignore him from now on. Good Call.
Back to exit polls.
97% of pollers in Florida say that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. 1% undecided.
I'm not worried at all about those exit polls in VA. We knew white males and late deciders were going to break for McCain. It's the hispanic/black/women voters that are going to vote him in.
Plus exit polls in the state are incredibly weighted by where they were polling. Within the same city there can be one precinct that is overwhelmingly repub in a sea of dems.
VA will go blue.
I get a big kick out of these Republicans who are saying that the high voter turnout will help McCain. They remind me of "Baghdad Bob" from 2003.
So amusing...
Hey again from St. Joe co. IN., having delivered voters to poll booths. good turnout here. I wonder how many out there know of places such as "Michiana" and "Illiana"? Well, it would be instructive to find out. NW In is such places. St. Joe Co is Michiana (along with Berrian Co in Mich, N of here). BO has had a very strong organization here. Given the strong Dem tilt in Mich and Ill, Michiana and Illiana (together lost about 250,000 jobs past two yrs) may well decide who wins Indiana. Thats mostly Indiana counties at the top, reading L to R (with major metros)- Lake (East Chicago, Hammond, Gary), Porter (Portage), LaPorte (La Porte, Michigan City), St. Joseph (South Bend, Mishawaka), Elkhart (Elkhart). Watch these to see how Indiana goes [if any one cares, that is - for a fire red state like IN, usually not].
15 MINUTES UNTIL THE REAL JOE SURPRISE
wv - gulfo - what i'll be crossing if mccain wins
Too much traffic---sight dying
"22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election"
Why would you assume the percentage held constant? That obviously was completely wrong.
/If you were right about this, GA would have went Obama, and I'd be even happier right now.
I was a poll watcher in a reasonably affluent Republican-leaning precinct in a Denver suburb. Out of boredom, one of the election judges counted the number of people who hadn't voted early or received a mail-in ballot: about 300 of a precinct size around 1400. From two precincts in the church, only about 300 people voted in person.
Colorado (or at least Jefferson County) has really reached out for voter convenience: voters can sign up to be on the "Permanent mail-in ballot list." And it's probably a good thing; we had 16 ballot measures, a dozen presidential candidates, and several local races. It takes a few hours at home to figure that all out, so you might as well fill out the ballot when it's fresh.
WV: reldfac - a Red State FAQ written by someone who's really drunk
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