Michael McDonald’s great early voting website has the totals.
31,268,357 voters have cast votes early in America, which represents 25.3% of the total of all ballots cast in 2004. Nobody doubts we are headed for an absolute record turnout in this election.
22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election, then 138,970,474 Americans will end up casting ballots.
[Chicago, Dawn]
Here are battleground states with early voting, followed by the percentage of the total 2004 vote that represents:
CO: 1,704,280; 79.3% of 2004
FL: 4,377,774; 57.3% of 2004
GA: 2,020,829; 60.9% of 2004
IA: 481,179; 31.6% of 2004
IN: 668,868; 26.6% of 2004
MT: 184,632; 40.5% of 2004
NM: 192,229; 73.2% of 2004
NC: 2,623,838; 73.9% of 2004
NV: 561,776; 67.6% of 2004
ND: 76,496; 24.2% of 2004
OH: 1,456,364; 25.2% of 2004
VA: 465,962; 14.5% of 2004
WV: 166,353; 21.6% of 2004
The numbers for Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Florida are eye-popping, all of these states have had more than half the vote from 2004 in. All of these states were won by George Bush, and they account for 74 electoral votes. We know that Barack Obama has placed an overwhelming ground force in place to generate early voting, and we can be confident that the early voters in these states are banking a large lead for Barack Obama.
In Georgia, for example, African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.
In Nevada, Clark County has seen a 21.4-point gap between Dems and Reps. Washoe, which turned blue due to the tremendous organizing effort, has a 16.8-point gap between Dems and Reps.
In New Mexico, the Dem-Rep gap is 20 points in early voting. In West Virginia, 24 points. In Iowa, 18 points. In Florida, where Republicans held a 2.8% edge in 2004 early and absentee voting, Dems now hold an 8.3% edge.
Only in Colorado is the gap somewhat closer, with Dems holding a mere 1.8% lead in early voting figures. However, unaffiliateds/independents have produced a fairly high 26.4% portion of the early vote, and Obama has dominated the ground game in Colorado to get early voting accomplished; a lot of those undeclared voters are likely Obama-ID'd voters from all the contacts.
Early voting has changed the game this year; every day was election day. Obama's verdict: "Come and catch me, Senator McCain."
*_*
Programming note: Brett and I are in Grant Park and hope to bring you some good photos and a good liveblog of all the day's events. I will be on Rachel Maddow's radio show for a segment this evening to talk about the ground game, so please tune in.
269 comments
hot damn
I love Election Day! So excited to be participating in such an historic day.
Glued to my TV set, this blog and others, and Twitter all night!
EARLY VOTING ROCKS! BARACK THE VOTE!
Massive early voting + massive turnout today = We all go to bed early.
I'm hoping to know the results well before I leave work (I'm in CA--so that's 9 ET).
I Baracked my vote in Florida as an absentee voter temporarily staying in Kentucky. Glad I didn't have to stand in lines here and certainly glad I didn't have to vote here considering how red the state is! Hopefully I'll help turn Florida blue.
going to take my laptop to the party tonight so I don't miss a thing
go get 'em
DENVER (AP) -- The drumbeat to vote early is paying dividends for Barack Obama, especially in key battleground states in the South and West where Democrats have cast many more ballots than Republicans - and even in states where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.
About a third of the American electorate was expected to vote before Election Day, largely to avoid long lines at the polls.
"It was so easy. I filled in my ballot with my wife over dinner and then dropped it off on the way to work," said Tony Amadeo, 27, one of almost 1.5 million people who cast early ballots in Colorado, where for the first time a majority of votes in a presidential race will be cast in advance.
----
Tony Amadeo... that's me :)
First seven! Made 20 phone calls for Obama today. Lets make sure he wins.
Sweet Jeebus! I'll be glad when the stress of this election season is OVER!
Great Job Guys, I'm positively hooked on your site.
bank 2 more in WI for 08AMA!
Here's the relevant question though, Nate: How many states had early voting in 2004? In 2008 there were 35 states. I couldn't vote early in New Jersey, and my family in New York couldn't vote early either.
Did any states add the potential for early voting in the last four years?
I hear there's a massive police riot squad heading to Grant Park... hahaha
Sean: that's great about Air America!
Remember that forthcoming book title: "Ground Game: How Obama Won It in 2008.
wv:axion
I called everyone on my phone, the majority of them from Florida.
2 hours left!!!!!!!
So glad you posted this - I've been lacking a coherent framework for early voting and what it means for the final tally, and this sums it up really nicely. Fantastic work as always!
BAD INFO. That 25% is only a partial subset of all early voting, from the states that report. Look at the tables. We are probably closer to 35%.
North Carolina is going to go blue because of the early voting. I can feel it. The weather here is AWFUL. Cold and rainy. The perfect day for Obama folks to be brave and vote. The perfect day for McCain folks to stay home and mope.
WV: McCain's campaign has be a total disteriu.
MSNBC election night coverage has started
continuing the Luke Russert love from the previous thread...
peixegato said:
You mean he didn't get hired solely on the basis of his ability and merit? How could this be???
lol Yes! Ho could this be? Who would do such a thing?!? (channeling Steve Martin from the SNL skit where he was a Roman centurion agonizing over vandalism by the real Vandals. lol)
Drudge Alert!
OBAMA IS BREAKING OUT THE CHAMPAIGN(sic)!
Wasn´t the Snapshot a projection of how the vote would be today as opposed to the Projection for the election day. Well, today is now the day. So shouldn´t the Snapshot be the same as the Projection?
Please help me understand.
BO likely to take GA and IN - Blowout 400 EV not out of question
Very interesting to see these high early voting numbers. Especially coupled with the fact that everything points to there being a substantial democratic majority among these early voters.
http://www.thisearthenergy.info
So it sounds like despite the huge emphasis put on early voting this year, the percentage of the vote coming from early voting won't really have increased much since four years ago, right? Even so, the nature (Dem-leaning) and geography (CO, NV, FL, NC, NM, etc.) of the vote are significant.
I can not for the life of me see how rick davis and trevor bonds can look straight into the camera and say "I high voter turn out is good for john mccain becoming President" with a straight face....I expect them to crack up and laugh and say na just joking after their interviews...Unless they actually believe that...Guess we will see....
Early voting shortens the campaign. Less time for fund-raising, less time to play catch-up. More states are going to expand their early voting.
Look for the conventions to move their dates earlier to compensate.
Drudge took down the headline already.
Those big numbers are straight up insane.
Not sure about your New Mexico numbers:
U.S. President -- New Mexico
Updated 11/24/04 1:59 AM ET
Precincts:100% Incumbent* declared winner
Candidates Votes %
George W. Bush * (R) 376,940 50
John F. Kerry (D) 370,893 49
Other 8,515 1
Why do I love the Obama Campaign team? Learned the lessons from 2000 and 2004. Create massive GOTV effort. Implement 50-State Strategy (thanks Governor Howard Dean). Executve Early Voting. Maintain thorough Message Control for ALL surrogates. Be prepared to counter all negative campaigning.
Best. Campaign Staff. Ever.
Blue in Co is famous. You got 10 more minutes.
CNN are starting to report voter suppression problems in PA and OH.
They are taking hundreds of calls from aggrieved voters who have found themselves removed from the rolls.
I really hope that 138 mil extrapolation proves out...that would be an amazing testament to political engagement and democratic participation.
I'm FUCKING PUMPED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Economy #1 issue 62%
Iraq 10%
Terrorism 9%
Health care 9%
First exit - most important issue
So since early voting seems to be so popular, how soon before other states move to the Oregon system, where all voting is early voting?
In the ten years it has been around, there hasn't been a major effort to rescind it, from any political quarter, and no large attempts at fraud that I know.
CNN says exit polls say top issue for voters:
Economy 62
Iraq 10
Terrorism 9
Healthcare 9
PA (Pittsburgh)
no lines in our community...11 precincts for a population of 10,000 (5,000 voters?)
irritated because on each side of the door of the polling place -- 2 big MCFailin signs taped to the brick wall... yuck...
1 daughter is going to get pix...
PA law: "no campaign signs within 10 feet of polling place"
68 yo 20 yo 18 yo oldest & yougest all voted together --
family of 12 registered voters---All Obama!
Ah, I think the NM issue is that the source data you're using is just Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), not statewide... cool!
Wow, signs within 10 feet. That's close. In MA, it's 100 feet. And nobody but an election official can talk to you once you get within that 100 feet, either.
America - thank you for your patience and dedication. Brave those lines!
It's amazing to see this happening.
I'm from Oregon, and I LOVE mail-in ballots. I voted last Thursday for BHO, and beat the mad rush today.
WV: Cotterin - Not gettin' "cotterin" a big long line because I use mail-in ballots!
Those CNN exit 'top issues' are bad news for McCain, considering the poll deficits that he's been running on that issue.
From CNN:
The historical significance of Tuesday's presidential election has a more poignant meaning for African-American students on the campus of UCLA where polling began at 10am ET.
Voter turn out is heavy and lines are robust. Campus officials said over eight thousand new registered voters were expected to turn out among the 30,000-plus student body population.
Nope, those slacker kids will never come out for Obama. No sir.
LOL
13% will be scared if Obama is President....guess which "news" station had that on their exit poll.....
That VA number is a little underwhelming, huh? Bummer. Or does it just reflect a lack of early voting places? (CA has early voting too, apparently, but only one polling place per county).
Haha Chuck Todd has Greek Columns!
Can I reques that posters putting exit poll data warn in the post so those of us nervous nellies who want to skip them can? Thanks!
Anyone know how the turnout was in PA in the counties and part of PA that Obama needed a big turnout?
The Nevada figure of 67+% might explain why, when I went for a ride on my bike this morning before coming to work, the six polling places I passed all appeared to be virtually empty.
wv: epethiae: Sarah Palin's favorite hair removal product?
Motherhoose-10 feet--seems awfully close--it is 100 in NJ. Great 12 Obama votes in one family---good stuff.
So wait. early voting went from 22.5% in 2004 to 25.3% in 2008? (both %s of 2004 voter total)
frankly I'm underwhelmed
Early voting is just asking for fraud.
Have fun at the riot in the park tonight. ;)
The WV numbers are interesting. The model predicts McCain to win the state by about 10 points. But Obama is ahead by 24 points in early voting, if this post is to be believed. That means that the majority of Obama voters went out to vote early, and a large majority of those that vote today will be for McCain.
Which means we should be hoping for low turnout in WV. Coincidentally, the National Weather Service says it's rainy and 45 degrees.
WV: Melychou. Bless you! Get out of the rain!
MotherHoose said...
PA law: "no campaign signs within 10 feet of polling place"
Aunt Karen said...
"Wow, signs within 10 feet. That's close. In MA, it's 100 feet. And nobody but an election official can talk to you once you get within that 100 feet, either."
I'm always curious to hear about differences in the election law among the states. Here in Virginia, it's 40 feet.
WV: cymuslo
Um...I don't even know.
Interesting that Texas has lower early voting percentage in 2008 vs 2004. As a Texan, I wonder if the fact that former Texas governor George W. Bush is not on the ballot has reduced the motivation of republican constituents here. I can attest that the Travis County Democratic Party ground game is well organized, and that we've sent buses of volunteers to swing states.
If Texas ends up with only average turnout, then Obama may do better here than state polls indicate, due to the relative turnout of democrats vs. republicans.
Doesn't the historic turnout make my vote count less? Makes me not even want to bother...
"That VA number is a little underwhelming, huh? Bummer. Or does it just reflect a lack of early voting places?"
It's the latter. Most of the state didn't have early voting and the rules for absentee voting are quite strict.
Well,
Given all the problems in VA voting today, there's a good chance voting will be extended in VA till 9 pm. So perhaps we won't know that much by 7 pm.
What is a good website to view an election map as it progresses?
WV: wheles - it's what you do on your bike, as in pop some wheles.
All the GOP supporters talking about riots are racists.
Big worthless racists.
They don't have anything else to say except racist things.
Bunch of racists
Help the math impaired - if 25% of 2004's vote total voted early, and 22% of 2004 voters voted early, isn't that just an extra 3%? That doesn't seem like it necessarily means record turnout . . . Or am I reading the numbers wrong?
"isn't that just an extra 3%"
3% of 140,000,000 is actually a pretty substantial number.
Somebody needs to tell Nate that the front page of fivethirtyeight.com is hosed - it's somehow got backdated to Oct 30th. Links from post to post work, but the front page is messed up. I sent an email via the "contact" link in the page header but if anyone has a more rapid method to alert him....
After my long, long line of correct predictions in this election, my prediction that the AA vote will turn out but the youth vote will not appears to be wrong.
It looks like *everyone* turned out.
@katie
I agree
@Leitmotiv
Take your pick, man. There's one on every major news site. I'll probably watch Politico's since they break it down so thoroughly
Hillary Clinton said "President Obama".
From my local paper:
Steven Reed, a student at Lincoln Tech in Columbia, said his classmates were so energized about Barack Obama during class this morning, that he was too scared to say anything about his conservative political views.
"They were talking about Obama and how he'll bring change," Reed said. "I just sat there because if I would've spoke up...I didn't want to get my head blown off."
Reed, a registered Republican, said he wasn't too sure about why he voted for McCain, except that his family supports him.
"I don't know, because he's a Republican," Reed said rubbing his head. "It's a [family] thing."
THESE ARE THE KINDS OF PEOPLE I DESPISE!!! Jeez, foiedgvfndg. Reminds me of a year ago in an upper level anthro class I took about american anthropology and this girl said the same thing. A college student. In an anthropology class.
Oh well. Coming here and lurking about always, occasionally posting, gives me hope.
To my fellow young voters on here--thank you. Thank you for not being apathetic in voting. Thank you for choosing to be informed no matter who you vote for. Thank you for helping to cancel out votes of people like this who have no brain.
loomis
Of course your vote counts! Everyone should vote (even if they don't agree with me, lol!).
You really should bother - it's important. Suppose your candidate loses, and you didn't get off your couch, not going to feel too good a couple of years from now, is it?
InkStain said...
After my long, long line of correct predictions in this election, my prediction that the AA vote will turn out but the youth vote will not appears to be wrong.
It looks like *everyone* turned out.
I would love to be wrong on this too. You got any numbers? Or know where to find 'em once they start coming?
More exit polls that NO ONE should pay attention to:
People concerned about Iraq:
63% Obama
36% McCain
inkstain what makes you think that the youth are turning out?
More exit polls:
More issue
Iraq as issue - 63-36 Obama issue
Significant they are NOT giving breakdown on economy - to me a hint that it might be strong Obama issue (or at least majority) and that might give too much away
the electorate is > 2004, so it is an extra 3% of a bigger number; tell me I'm right because it would mean I UNDERSTOOD it!
Fox obessed with PA and how they will (can) win it by capturing the Hilary vote....
"
I'm always curious to hear about differences in the election law among the states. Here in Virginia, it's 40 feet."
In ND, there's a law that *ALL* campaign signs have to be removed the day before, other than billboards and bumper stickers.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/articles/index.cfm?id=91840
Voters concerned about Iraq:
In every state except TN and KY the voters preferred Obama over McCain.
Even in KY that margin was only 9 points between them.
sfergus483 said...
More exit polls:
More issue
Iraq as issue - 63-36 Obama issue
Significant they are NOT giving breakdown on economy - to me a hint that it might be strong Obama issue (or at least majority) and that might give too much away
++++++++++++
you betcha....
What happens to this site after election day? I mean now that so many of us have become addicted to visiting it?
Nate, perhaps you could come up with some follow-on subject matter that will give us a reason to continue to indulge our favorite addiction going forward. Cold turkey is just too abrupt.
It's 100 feet in California.
@mrs B
No. Nate clearly stated the 2004 turnout was a % of those who voted in 2004.
So only 3% up on 2004
Charles Crook--I like the ND law--makes good sense. Although I wonder how much good those signs do anyway. I live in a community that does not allow any signs and everybody seems to be able to make up their minds and vote.
anyone else think they the internet is already slowing down. everything is starting to load very slowly.
Referring to Nate's statement about Drudge's comparatively good record on exit polls: Drudge says Senate Dems are expecting 58 senate seats.
@daveb
I had the same problem. Clear your cache or, if necessary, your cookies.
Fox "News" - the beautiful idiot Meagan Kelly (or whatever her last name is this week) breathlessly announced they have some exit polls they will be revealintg soon. Must be some redneck precincts to give the Rethugs some hope (and keep them going to the polls).
[bopoll!!]
@cloudyfuture
I am expecting the same
What surprised me was the Iraq issue.
Most of the national polling over the last 2 months showed McCain leading Obama on Iraq issue.
mccain campaign confident in victory tonight per MSNBC...
whops I meant: Nate clearly stated the 2008 turnout was a % of those who voted in 2004.
Mrs B said...
the electorate is > 2004, so it is an extra 3% of a bigger number; tell me I'm right because it would mean I UNDERSTOOD it!
Nope.
For now they're using the same denominator - the number of total voters in 2004. We won't know the actual % of 2008 voters that voted early until after the polls close today.
Just coming back from phonebanking. Lots of calls to Virginia and Pennsylvania. Most people are not there (hopefully out voting). People I talked to already voted for Obama and one person (older lady) told me all of her friends and family voted Obama too.
I like the ND law simply because it forces campaigns to clean up after themselves.
Must be a little tough in ND to dig those signs out of the snowbanks, though.
Per Ambinder on exit polls:
76% of the country believes it's off on the wrong track.
Bush's approval rating is 27%
More than 60% say the economy is their top voting issue; 9 in ten say the economy is in bad shape; more than 80% are worried about their own condition next year.
Change voters made up 35% of the electorate; 30% wanted someone who shared their values.
One in ten voters are late-deciders..
And CNN tells us that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama's leading two to one.
Google News Top Story 11/4/08 5:25 EST:
Top Stories Auto-generated 11 minutes ago
Top poll analyst's final prediction: Obama 349, McCain 189; Obama ...
San Diego Union Tribune - 33 minutes ago
Nate Silver of The Plank and fivethirtyeight.com has done a better job synthesizing and explaining the polls this election than any statistical analyst has done in this or any previous presidential election.
No trolls yet. Let me save us all the trouble.
@troll:
Hate hate hate. Hate hate hate hate. HATE HATE HATE!!!
@us
you lose
@ sedi - thanks for the clarification! I figured it might be something like that.
Does anyone know what percent of early voters are newly registered, or didn't vote in the last election (i.e., "non-likely voters")? Feel like I've seen some numbers floating around but I can't remember where.
@Livemild
Nate's site is starting to get more hits than it can take.
@Livemild
Nate's site is starting to get more hits than it can take.
There's going to be alot of pissed off Libtards in that park tonight.
Just don't get trampled.
Oh, I didn't mention anything about race. You did.
"Nate, perhaps you could come up with some follow-on subject matter that will give us a reason to continue to indulge our favorite addiction going forward."
He has said that the site will continue after the election and that announcements about what they're planning will be coming soon. I think it was a few posts ago that Nate talked about this stuff.
The one problem that some others already pointed out is that on that Early voting chart, 15 or 16 states that have Early voting weren't counted. If we're conservative and say that each of those states contributes an average of 200,000 early voters this go around, we can raise the early voter numbers by about 10%, which would be about 2-3% more as an overall picture.
When all is said and done, I would be surprised if early voting isn't 1/3rd of the numbers from '04.
Aaarrrrgghhhh, Blitzer talking to Giuliani soon.
Hey did you know that "Blitzer" is actually German for streaker?
"So only 3% up on 2004"
Many, Many states don't report early numbers until after the election. If you go to the GMU website linked above you can see which states do and don't report early numbers for 2008.
Sreenu said...
@cloudyfuture
I am expecting the same
What surprised me was the Iraq issue.
Most of the national polling over the last 2 months showed McCain leading Obama on Iraq issue.
+++++++++++++++
Ya that surprised me to but if the turn out is big and leans Obama then you might think that Obama can win almost every issue amoung voters (add in the thing Nate said earlier about repubs dont really partake in exit polls and you also might get a dem lean)....
"The winner of an election is the candidate whose ideals fall closest to the median voter"
The weather has been gorgeous up here so far.
MSNBC still interviewing douchebag Richard Burr, CNN trying to make the race sound hypertight and still showing those Wright adds...how much fucking money did the Pennsylvania Republicans spend on this??
Mason -- we combined those banks so we could compete globally. It was a sideshow.
What really happened was that we meddled with capitalism and forced the lenders to lend to non-credit worthy borrowers or skewed the incentives for doing so. Those toxic loans were mixed with good loans in pools. They were supposed to perform in accordance with a nearly pre-determined default rated based on statistical modeling. They did not and the so-called subprime loans were no longer producing reliable default statistics which caused the entire pool of loans to drip precipitously in value. The banks that held those securities suffered paper capital losses which reduced their ability to lend and in the worst case made them legally insolvent.
That what meddling got you
Obama will bring you an ENRON like solution. What did Enron get you? SARBOX and the destruction of the US IPO market. It’s all gone to England. Their banks got rich over that business ours did not. They have had a softer landing.
Your Obama has no clue and neither, I fear do you!
WV: affsta -- Obama's executive order number one unilaterally removing all tariffs and ordering the taking down of all other barriers to trade with an nation located on the continent of Africa, other than Egypt or Israel.
More craptastic exit polls:
Terrorism important to 9%
McCain: 86%
Obama: 14%
Ready for the landslide libs?!?!?!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
Also, Senator Burr just said Liddy Dole is going to WIN. Hahahahahah!
thanks guys, I knew I wouldn't understand it. English grad - main subject of study at university: 12th century English. So a lot of this site is a mystery to me (although I DO know what mean, median and average are, and what standard deviation is). I just bask in the glow of Nate's awesome brainpower at work.
Terrorism as issue:
(9% said top issue)
86-13 McCain lead on this
I think those numbers are understated. According to the US election project from GMU it seems that almost every state recorded some form of early votes in 2004. Many of these states have yet to report early vote numbers for 2008.
So the percentages should be way higher than 32%
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
I thought we agreed exit polls are worthless. So why the noise?
gringly: McCain's brow right now
Early Exit Polls showing expected Obama bias.
Why are we talking about exit polls when they're not believable?
You STUPID lib f*cks.
2 petekent's are back
no actual results are available, thus the talk of exit polls.
drudge says "sources" expect 58 dem seats...
exit poll white men
IN
O: 44
M: 54
OH:
O 47
M 51
VA
O 39
M 58
Are you libs ready for the MCCAIN LANDSLIDE??!?!?!!?!?!?!?
White women will be the key.
@Bush Whacked
I don't hate you guys. I leave that to you guys.
I just think government can't and shouldn't try to solve everybody's problems. The effort to do so causes many more problems not the least of which is creating a dependent class of voters.
Oh, and I suppose you chose your name out of love and respect for your opponents.
Latest Exit Poll:
95% of people who went into the voting booth say they voted.
4% forgot to vote.
1% can't remember.
In IL the law is 100 feet for all campaign materials and campaign workers. They will not even let you into the polling place if you are wearing a button or a t-shirt with election-related material on it. They can and will cite you if you refuse to leave.
"exit poll white men"
I promised myself I wouldn't comment on exit polls, but those are bad numbers for McCain if real.
But exit polls still suck.
SHERWICK said...
Latest Exit Poll:
95% of people who went into the voting booth say they voted.
4% forgot to vote.
1% can't remember.
++++++++++
Tell me thats a joke?
Please....
New Ohio exit poll:
Hussein 35
McCain 62
HAHAHAHA! SUCK IT LIBS!
Obama got 54% of late deciders. to McCain's 39% in Ohio.
Obama will win Ohio.
It might be tougher for Obama in Virginia. Numbers are not that great.
To extrapolate from those three state white male #s, Obama wins Ohio and probably IN, VA will be close
PA -turnout
#348, #349, #350 @ 4 PM in precinct with <1000 registered voters ... not bad... lots of people vote after work.
I don't like early voting... but do like the idea of a weekend of voting and polls open 7AM - 11 PM.
In NC the early vote is going to have an even bigger impact since it is a dreary, rainy day which will suppress some of the election day vote. It is going to be hard to get enough McCain supporters to the polls to close the gap.
Also consider the fact that I'm a registered independent voter that has been called by Obama backers multiple times, but has only received McCain robo-calls. McCain doesn't have a ground game here.
VA is another story. It is raining there as well, but the early voting numbers are low. Obama has a bigger lead there, so it might not matter.
Late deciders exit poll:
IN
O 52
M 45
OH
O 54
M 39
VA
O 44
M 55
Carlo--That site is down, but doesn't it just show party ID to date?
A 24% party ID lead for WV means that Obama might be behind there, honestly, given how conservative the state party is (the official '06 Sec. of State #s say the state is 57% Dem, 30% GOP, and the '04 self-identification at exit polls was 50% Dem, 32% GOP.)
One asterisk about Virginia... There's no optional early voting there. In other words, you need to be able to swear that you'll be out of the county for 11 of the 13 hours the polls are open (so covering an extended trip away, long commuting hours, or long work hours, that sort of thing). That's why the numbers are lower than you might expect.
If I could've voted early in Virginia, I probably would have. But no matter; the weight this morning wasn't bad. KF
Matt:
SENATE SOURCES: DEMS SEE 58 SEATS; EXIT POLLS RELEASED 5:15 PM ET
petekent is just a racist. Ignore his ignorant racism.
Stupid racists
Ohio and Indiana look strong. Virginia is a toss up it appears.
i know we were told to throw out exit polls but those virgina numbers make me nervous.
You dumbass libs, believing the exit polls.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!
3,000 calls in the last hour on CNN's voter trouble hotline. CNN says lines in some precincts of Virgina are 5-7 hours long.
More worthless exit polls:
New voters:
Obama 72
McCain 27
Other 1
In case the Ohio voter suppression story becomes a big deal, the Ohio News Network will be streaming live coverage all night.
I don't expect it to become the big story tonight, but on the off chance it does, that's probably as good a place as any to find info on Ohio.
@Mason & InkStain,
As this could very well be my final post in my final thread (as I don't have intentions of returning following the election), I just wanted to tell the two of you that, in spite of some of the heated exchanges we've had, I enjoyed the two of you the most from the "liberal side" and you have my utmost respect.
I wish you both well in life's endeavors.
@PeteKent & Real Joe,
To a couple of fellow conservatives, keep the faith, my friends (no pun intended)! I wish you guys well also and may your futures be bright with opportunity and rewards.
72% of first time voters voted for Obama.
Buh-bye Gramps
New voters:
All edged to Obama
72-27
Why would those numbers make you nervous? Both were pretty close to expected.
The McCain talking point of the day seems to be "We can win. Pollsters don't pick the president, the voters do."
Really weak. They need better writers.
As if they don't pay big bucks themselves for polling.
But it's really hilarious that the freepers seem to believe there is a polling-wing conspiracy to steal the election.
Why do supposedly educated intelligent people call others names just because of a difference of opinion. People either act like an adult or stop posing as one.
New voters:
IN
O 73
M 27
OH
O 69
M 31
VA
O 63
M 36
You too. I argue hard, but we're all just people.
And mule rider, too. Servius also.
Servius, Mule Rider, and Petekent are just a bunch of racists.
Go back to your klan meetings, racists
Petekent is trying to get in his last few knocks, that last streds of trying to feel good by insulting everyone and trying to make them feel bad.
The sad thing is, he will wake up tomorrow, still alone, still feeling misrable, and all the cutting and pasting will be for naught, whatever way the poll goes.
The rest will be getting up and getting on with it regardless.
In short he is to be pitied. He is like Sisyphus desperately trying to push the bounder up a hill only to see it roll back down again. compliantly pointless and only makes him feel worse
Pete all you are sound is hurting yoruslef. Relax, go out and have a beer. Be with people. Being here is not doing you, mccain or anyone any good.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!
@sherwick
your exit poll was lacking a category
potential VPs - "refused to say"
OMG what happened in Virginia ? :(
@SHERWICK
re: "gramps"
That's awfully ageist of you. I thought you guys were the party of diversity.
The virgina numbers make me nervous (the white male and the late deciders ...)
OF COURSE new voters are going for Obama, people!
That's not going to win us the election.
Mule, we never argued, but I appreciated your counter opinions.
Pollster Zogby just on the BBC. He said Obama is going to win and pretty much said it's going to be a landslide but just couldn't bring himself to say the words.
Can Keith Olberman beat this for a victory commentary.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs
Sean Hannity, Joe Lieberman, Sarah Palin .... Fox News Fox News can you hear me your boy took a helluva beating.
Enjoy!
Bye bye Mule Rider, you bigoted old fool.
rosaqueen said...
OMG what happened in Virginia ? :(
+++++++++++
Guess we will see but not looking to good...Was their early voting in VA cant remember....thats the only thing I can think of....
VIRGINIA is RED!
INDIANA is RED!
OHIO is RED!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Do these exit polls include early voters?
WP: hulteder. When my daughter fell off her bike and scraped her knee, I picked her up and hulteder until she stopped crying.
Mule, will be on my show?
"The virgina numbers make me nervous (the white male and the late deciders ...)"
They shouldn't. You should expect that. The white male vote is the bastion of McCain's support. And late deciders, well, remember how a couple days ago Repub trolls were saying those would break 80-20 for Mc?
Sorry, didn't mean to call him 'Gramps'. Meant to say 'McGramps'.
Pollster Zogby just on the BBC. He said Obama is going to win and pretty much said it's going to be a landslide but just couldn't bring himself to say the words.
Can Keith Olberman beat this for a victory commentary.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs
Sean Hannity, Joe Lieberman, Sarah Palin .... Fox News Fox News can you hear me your boy took a helluva beating.
Enjoy!
WV - peiggli - Took speak in a high pitch nassle voice like Sarah Palin
Excuse my language, but...
Shut the fuck up about the exit polls, tools. Post them if you want, but don't ga-ga over them. Jeez!!
could people stop being shrill and alarmist based on a couple sub-sections of exit polls?
White women will be the key.
Really? Where's all the white women at?
/couldn't resist
@El Oso
Only you have mentioned race. So who's the racist?
Would you have voted for McCain if he were black? I would have.
Do you support Justice Thomas? Do your favorite writers include Thomas Sowell and Walter Williams? Is the small business you work for owned by a black immigrant from Haiti? Is his son your boss? and are you happy for them? All that is true of me. What about you?
samule wrote: MSNBC still interviewing [...] CNN trying to make the race sound hypertight[...] how much [] money did the Pennsylvania Republicans spend on this??
They didn't have to; nor would the Democrats have to, were the positions reversed. Always remember, the news networks are busineses, and need viewers. It is in their interest to make the situation seem interesting.
RWS, still think Obama will win Virgina?
Didn't Nate say to forget about exit polls?
A lot of Virginians are in line!!!
Rachel,
Yes, if you'll have me.
drudge: obama big
Big Nuts
Big Heart
Big Vision
Big Mind
Please folks relax about VA. These are exit polls--unreliable noise.
The polls haven't closed yet Pete. You might as well be reporting the numbers of a set of D&D dice.
What did Nate say about exit polls? Think about this, guys:
VA, a major traditional red state, full of still VERY red voters. They'll be extremely anxious to say they voted for McCain.
Make sense?
Yep, I belive O will win Va even with those exit poll numbers.
Exit Poll:
100% of all voters are Real Americans.
You might as well be reporting the numbers of a set of D&D dice.
Aw, hell, an elf blew up Cynthia McKinney with a magic missile.
wv = luthyd - speaking clearly and plainly despite having your tongue cut out
I couldn't resist that easy one.
Posted in another thread earlier...
50% of my students in a 2:30 class had "I voted" stickers. Walking across campus, >50% had "I voted stickers." If this reflects a broader trend, the youth did indeed turn out -- they just didn't early vote.
Drudge: "EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG"
Servius is just so sad because he's so racist that he hurts inside.
It's ok, President Obama will forgive you.
For now, you need to get the bic on the back of your head, it's not quite skin yet. Silly racist
In little over one hour, the moment we have all been anticipating will arrive.
Real Joe will reveal his secret.
Developing...
EXIT POLLS CLAIM OBAMA +15 IN PA... DEVELOPING...
Via Drudge
DRUDGE IS IN THE TANK FOR OBAMA
OH NOES!!!!!11!!ONE1ELEVEN
Blogger djl said...
You might as well be reporting the numbers of a set of D&D dice.
Aw, hell, an elf blew up Cynthia McKinney with a magic missile.
McCain (dwarf wizard/fighter multiclass) just blew the elf (and half the room up with a fireball in revenge.
I thought we agreed exit polls are not a telling indicator....buck up!!
2 pentkents is making my head spin.
I especially like where one of them notes Early Exit Polls, and then the second immediately says that we shouldn't be looking at them and calls us liberal f*ks.
What a wacky day this will be.
And petekent, Mule Rider, and servius will all unite in their racist red suspenders.
Will there be live coverage of your racist rallies, servius?
Thanks Sean (not that you scrolled this far down or that this thread stayed on topic).
Exit polls are fascinating. Results are even better! Just moments away from those. Good night everyone, my Obama victory party beings in 9 minutes.
@El Oso
You make my point for me.
Go read the writers I mentioned and get an education.
Okay, my finale.
To all the posters on 538.com, may you all have the very best in life and liberty!
May our House be United once more!
And God Bless the United States of America!
Goodbye to All!
Okay, my finale.
To all the posters on 538.com, may you all have the very best in life and liberty!
May our House be United once more!
And God Bless the United States of America!
Goodbye to All!
Howard Wolfson On Fox ''President Bush beat John Kerry by 40 points by white men in Virginia in 2004''
Obama got 38 % all you Virginia Concern Trolls. STFU!
You STUPID lib.
INDIANA is RED!
VIRGINIA is RED!
OHIO is RED!
PENNSYLVANIA is RED!
Note about Virginia:
SurveyUSA in its final VA poll had McCain winning all white voters 57-40.
According to these exits, McCain is winning white MEN 58-39.
Not white voters, white MEN.
This means McCain is winning white voters by a lot less, since more white WOMEN will vote for Obama.
And in SUSA's final VA poll? Obama up 50-46.
robo calls directed at Hispanic in FL saying that Obama was endorsed by Hugo chavez and fidel castro....calls started an hour ago....made by the mccain campaign....
Per CNN...
Blogger Servius said...
@El Oso
You make my point for me.
Go read the writers I mentioned and get an education.
Sorry I think MY education (Philosophy and sociology degree thinkers from Plato to Hume and everything from Homer up) is far superior than holding up writers that noone has ever heard of and whos nares you just read somewhere.
And no Homer wasn't a character in the Simpsons
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