I don't know how predictive this is, but here's something interesting: the volume of search traffic conducted on Google over the course of the past month.
There's been an uptick of interest in Obama, but McCain's numbers have flatlined. He's not controlling news cycles and there's little evidence that voters are taking a second look.
Of course, you could frame this as voters taking a second look at Obama: we don't know how many of those searches are "Obama god damn america" or "Obama Khalidi". But generally, if you're relying on a scenario wherein the electorate substantially reorients itself within the final 96 hours, you're going to want to see a surge of interest in your candidate.
11.02.2008
Google Traffic Suggests McCain Not Grabbing Voters' Attention
by Nate Silver @ 3:10 PM...see also mccain
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Rule of thumb: between two non-incumbents, the more cheerful and interesting guy wins.
weell...top ten!
This just proves this is the Obama vs Nobama election.
First?
The upsurge could be the McCain campaign folks looking for dirt ;-)
Not many obama khalidi searches....
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22Obama+Khalidi%22%2C+%22McCain+khalidi%22%2C+khalidi&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=2
if you type "obama" into the google search bar, the suggested search terms include "muslim," "antichrist," "tax plan," "acorn." all signs that voters are looking up negative information on him, i think.
Nate, you can sortof screen for the negative interest by comping their trendlines against Obama, McCain, et cetera.
Jeremiah Wright is tricky because the name wright is a common one, so I just used his full name, and "god damn america" as well.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+khalidi%2C+jeremiah+wright%2C+mccain%2C+god+damn+america&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
Obama is at 1.0, McCain at 0.4 and the negative buzzwords are all at 0.
Khalidi registers a blip. Not surprising, though, if you consider the demos on the internet.
Although it is interesting that Mccain has finally pulled ahead of palin in the last few days
Yahoo has breakdown on topics in searches for Obama and MickeyC
link
I like to see a question asked on one of these polls:
Would you wait 4-5 hours in line to vote for your candidate of choice?
This isn't surprising. Many Americans are probably fact-checking the smears and lies they hear on Sean Hannity's TV shows.
This is people checking out Obama for the final time. What they find and what they decide are the questions. For the latter, we'll find the answer on Tuesday.
Nate - love your continued desire to find the truth before it is even stated. Keep it up! Very entertaining.
-kev
If McCain somehow pulls this off, he should be in the running for the Nobel Prize for Mathematics.
Latest Rasmussen:
O 52
M 46
Philly ground game is out in force! Just wanted to report that in a drive through several Center City Philly neighborhoods this AM , we saw many many GOTV teams hanging door hangs, knocking on doors, getting staging areas ready for the next three days. The energy is good -- we are NOT conceding Pennsylvania!!
WV: "culmet" -- A stiff cocktail consumed to calm pre-election jitters...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+khalidi%2C+terrorist%2C+acorn%2C+mccain&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
For the other "suggested search terms". They're probably suggested because of wingnut google bombing.
Yeah, toss the VPs into that mix.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain%2C+palin%2C+biden&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
Searching for Obama on Google...
The first negative page on Obama is on the bottom of page 2. The rest is positive.
good news for Obama supporters
Obama campaign source:
we are going to win on tuesday
"the road to victory is clear"
PA will stay blue
campaign very happy with early voting numbers & gotv
No, I am a different Nate.
When I type in mccain the top item I get as a suggestion is "mccain staring palin's ass", so maybe his titals aren't so accurate as a proxy for support either, abcamire
RCP is working hard for McCain. Now Virginia is considered toss-up. Obama is 278 leaning.
@ alison b
same in Pittsburgh -- well the 100+ small towns that make up the city of Pittsburgh!
we weren't home...but still got the pamphlet (even with the biggest yard sign! ;)
Latest Rasmussen Pennsylvania poll:
Obama: 52
McCain: 46
With Pennsylvania and Colorado secure, this election is over.
@Andy JS: If McCain somehow pulls this off, he should be in the running for the Nobel Prize for Mathematics.
That would be an even greater challenge than winning PA, since there is no Nobel Prize in mathematics.
(Word: singlut: too many divas)
If you want a more interesting search try "obama, ayers". Ayers was flatline even back when McCain was pushing it heavily. After they lose, I think McCain should think "what if we gave up on the Ayers attack even earlier?" I think they might be doing better recently simply because they have been trying to make other arguments.
this is fun.
mccain couldnt generate interest standing in the middle of the freeway nude at rush hour.
Aren't the "suggested searches" just the most frequent word combos? Even if so, that does not mean there are not hosts of other word combos being searched that are NOT "obama muslim". Moreover, that latter common search also contains people like me, and reporters, looking up what other people are seeing when they search that. In other words, I don't know what if anything can be concluded from the frequent searches.
From the general trends, I think all we can conclude is that there is more interest, period, in Obama as a candidate. It is spread out, likely, across the pro, con, and neutral spectrum. What would be fascinating is to be able to compare this google search data with (a) newspaper data (which won't happen) or (b) news websites click-through data on specific stories on Obama and McCain, to see what folks are specifically reading.
Google has all its click-through data, tho, as indicated in the recent article in the Atlantic, and could probably generate fascinating information on what the pathways of electoral information searching were.
Rev Wright ads have started as has the mailers. I'm saving all the mailers and then they get torn up to be mailed back to the PA RNC after the election.
Nate and Sean - you guys are the best.
I don't think we need any further evidence that Obama is the more successful candidate when it comes to publicity and interest.
What I want is some evidence that all of the math---such as Obama leading in every poll in PA, CO and VA for the past month---will not somehow fall through this Tuesday.
But I won't get that proof until probably sometime around 5 PM Pacific Time when the reports start coming in from Virginia.
I'd love to see those numbers against Bush/Kerry, October/November 2004.
WV: rendsevi. I got nothing for that one.
I see Obama's electoral count has slipped on this site while McCain has gone up.
You get a similar picture when you place McCain and Obama's websites into Alexa.
http://www.alexa.com/
McCain cross-searches well with "Fossil" LOL
McCain's Intrade is moving inversely to Obama's Google searches.
Regarding google. The simple answer is that Repubs can't use computers.
Though actually I believe the analysis is spot on and America is excited about Obama!!!
Electing Barack is the most important thing, but for we poor dem Hoosiers it'd be nice to have this be a tidal wave, landsliding the Gov & his worse-than-Palin entourage out. But if we have to suffer to take one for the team, knowing the M/P ticket has spent precious resources here to barely win & keep our b**** Mitch (Bush's budget flunky) in office, we'll take one for the team. That's how important it is to us overall.
wv (if this %^&( thing lets me post this time--herfas. I know Hoosiers are overweight, but I've seen some herfas on the other side too :-).
Keep up the ground game! The truly negative 72 hour fear bullshit has begun in earnest.
I just searched Obama 30 times to get his Google-polling numbers up a bit to offset those Mason-Dixon-NBC numbers.
We Dems like to Cheat on Elections you know.
Check out this google trends from 2004. Bush vs Kerry:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=bush%2C+kerry&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004&sort=0
You are basing this conclusion on an extensive study of Google data from the 2000 election?
Hmmm...for the "reassurance via stats" Nate's giving us, the wv seems reasonable--losilv (as in "love silver" :-) ).
Prediction: This is going to be a concern-troll madhouse tomorrow. BUT I'd still rather be in our position than the R's.
what aboutr comparing obama to palin?
I don't think this accurately reflects interest in the candidates. Let's remember that the masses still use Yahoo for searching more, it is only the more informed internet user (read: smarter) who uses Google. I think those smart enough to use Google are smart enough to vote for Obama. :D
I've never done an Obama search until Friday, after watching Charlie Rose's interview with David Brooks I went to google and typed 'obama reinhold niebuhr'. Interesting stuff and worth checking out.
This day in 2004
Kerry 262
Bush 261
The rest, tied
Today?
Obama 353
McCain 185
Another interesting search is "McCain, Palin": since her nomination, she has led McCain at Google the majority of the time, often by large spikes due to the revelations about her various inanities.
Charlie Black says they are only a point behind in Iowa. He also has a bridge in Brooklyn you may be interested in.
Actually, according to Alexa fivethirtyeight.com has almost caught John McCain's own site!
Great job on PA, off to work GOTV in NM. I think our early vote was well over 50%, will be interesting to see the overall numbers for NM when they are available.
stevemarker said:
...but for we poor dem Hoosiers it'd be nice to have this be a tidal wave...
_____________________
For us poor Hoosiers
Sorry, I can't help it.
stato: the short exclamation you make when you see McCain's win percentage has increased.
I wouldn't read much into these numbers. McCain's platform is "Obama is scary." McCain has no ideas or information to research. He's all nonsense and smears.
I will be here on 11/4 to laugh at you liberal dumbasses when your MESSIAH loses in a MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!
Iowa has not been polled since the 31st, but the trend is to Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ia/08-ia-pres-ge-mvo.php
More republican lies.
"Somewhere in America, a conservative is lying"
A few suggestions as everyone uses the Google search index to see what people might be thinking right now:
1. Change the region to US since only US citizens vote...
2. If you want to see how much a word is searched for in combination with another word compared to being searched for on it's own use something like "obama muslim, muslim"
3. It helps to look at the top cities that the searches are originating from to see if they are coming from battleground states. The tool will rank cities according to the first search combination you list.
petekent said...
I will be here on 11/4
pete come back on election night for the 'Surprise'
:-)
Nate,
This could also be a bad sign... when you're interested in digging up more dirt about somebody, you Google them. If there are a lot of angry websites and polarizing images of Obama out there, this could help convince somebody to vote otherwise.
Let's hope the top links on Google are fair appraisals of Obama.
go Nate!
http://www.google.com/trends?q=fivethirtyeight.com%2C+realclearpolitics.com%2C+electoral-vote.com%2Cusaelectionpolls.com%2C+pollster.com&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
if somebody says IA is close they are fu**ing crazy
Also interesting is the comparison of the traffic to their respective web sites:
http://trends.google.com/websites?q=johnmccain.com,+barackobama.com&geo=all&date=all&sort=1
As well as looking at the demographics of the US visitors to the sites over the last thirty days:
https://www.google.com/adplanner/planning/site_details#barackobama.com/usa
https://www.google.com/adplanner/planning/site_details#johnmccain.com/usa
Sadly, you'll need a Google account to see that data, which is a little out of date, and only runs through the middle of September.
"Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Republicans' chances in U.S. Senate races are doomed by an unpopular president, an unpopular war and a shrinking economy, John Ensign, head of the party's senatorial campaign committee, said today.
``Democrats are poised to pick up some seats, the exact number we don't know,'' Ensign, of Nevada, said on CBS's ``Face the Nation'' program. ``That financial crisis really has been almost a body blow to Republicans,'' he said. He also noted that Republicans must defend more seats than Democrats.
Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, predicted his party would ``pick up a whole lot of seats,'' but said it's ``unlikely'' Democrats would reach the 60-seat majority required to block a Republican filibuster.
``Even though the wind is at our back, it's hard,'' Schumer, of New York, said on the same program. ``But I will say this, with 56, 57, 58, we'll be able to get a lot done in the Senate.''
"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20081102/pl_bloomberg/a2ltafsuqnmo
I found the cities with the highest amount of searches for "Obama" (in the last thirty days) interesting:
1. Denver, CO, USA
2. Miami, FL, USA
3. St Louis, MO, USA
4. Orlando, FL, USA
5. Philadelphia, PA, USA
6. Reston, VA, USA
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2Cmccain&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
A lot of swing states there...
I just wanna point out that Sarah Palin also drops off when compared to Obama on google traffic
http://www.google.com/trends?q=barack+obama%2C+sarah+palin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=1
--This day in 2004
Kerry 262
Bush 261
The rest, tied
Today?
Obama 353
McCain 185--
That date in 2004 was Nov. 2, which was election day.
The comparable date for today is Oct. 31, 2004.
I guess this is news to some people, but different dates shift days year to year.
(parco - a drug cop who works the parks)
rudy giuliani on MSNBC earlier: "FL, VA, and OH will stay red as repbulicans always outperform polls by 2-6 points....mccain will win..."
notice the mccain peeps out in force on TV but not much Obama peeps on....who should I believe!?!?! ah well cant wait for tues...
For those wondering what to do after the election...
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other items of interest. It is a spin-off of the blog that I've been writing that some of you know about; you can find info on it here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
I'd like to see the Trend-Adjusted projection for the likelihood that Nate will smoke a fat doobie before going on the air with Dan Rather on election night just like he did before Countdown last week.
Just got a McCain robocall here in NC. Or at least, I think it was a McCain robocall. The recording was stuttering so badly all I could make out was "ddememocratatss wawantt tto rraisse ssocialal sesecururityty taxaxes"
Is that really the best they can do?
Sorry sfergus, I did trust the website to know how to run dates.
Thanks for being a complete fucking godamn worthless prick about it.
Rasmussen again puts Senator Obama over 50 percent in the Keystone State, making Mason-Dixon the only poll in the RCP average that doesn't...would love to know why Obama can't get over 50 in a Mason-Dixon poll.
WV: tumbl. What will happen to McCain's win percentage when this Rasmussen poll enters the model.
Final poll from Pew Research...
RV
O: 50
M: 39
LV (w/ undecideds)
O: 49
M: 42
LV (undecideds allocated)
O: 52
M: 46
Erik Nilsson:
Strangely enough, I had an idea there was no Nobel Prize for Mathematics in the back of my head. They have Fields Medals instead. Stupid me for writing that last comment.
And "joe the plumber" doesn't seem to have gained much traction:
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=+%22joe+the+plumber%22&date=mtd&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&sort=0&sa=N
justsomeguy, Iowa was polled several times the last couple of days. Obama is ahead double digits in all of them.
seattleslide: I'd put it at +6.5 Likely Yes
livemild said...
this is fun.
mccain couldnt generate interest standing in the middle of the freeway nude at rush hour.
OMG, I'm NEVER going to get that visual out of my head! EWW!
Thanks Yvonne, I checkes pollster, they are generaly not more than one night out of date.
The predictiveness of Google was covered recently and it is surprisingly accurate:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-sinker/poll-numbers-we-dont-need_b_137524.html
http://michaelg.us/freakon/googletrends.php
Nothing to see here imo.
Despite what we (those reading this site) think about the internet, its still not a universal tool, and this overwhelmingly represents rich white people's interests. Not only does that make me think more of these searches are of the "obama khalidi" variety, but that its really insignificant and unimportant.
$0.02
Mitch McConnell will be the senate MAJORITY leader when we pick off Landrieu, Lautenberg, and take Lieberman. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
aid...
livemild said...
this is fun.
mccain couldnt generate interest standing in the middle of the freeway nude at rush hour.
OMG, I'm NEVER going to get that visual out of my head! EWW!
i thought women like McCain
LOL
WOW!
i looked at the same Google trends two days ago -- NATE !! (fyi biden rants a paltry 4th -- isn't this a bonus in light of this)
OK, i also cross-correlated with early voting maps, $$ fundRAISING and your maps to conclude that...
this is GREAT news for John McCain
justsomeguy, on the right side of this website are all the polls by alphabet. Just go down to IA and you see the most recent ones.
Sorry Yvonne-
Even Nate is showing the latest IA polls have been out of the field since the 30th. It is not the posting date that matters, it is the poling date.
Uhm I hate to burst you bubble on this one but your method of looking up the trend was a bit eschewed. http://www.google.com/trends?q="barrack+obama",+"john+mccain",+"bob+barr",+"ralph+nader",+"ron+paul"&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
Shows a much different story. if Barrack obama is 1, john mccain is a whopping 12.5 o.O
Not exactly the best indicator for BO.
yes, the new PEW #'s on POLLSTER are great news for BHO
--------------------------------
Pew Research Center
10/29 - 11/1/08; 2,587 LV, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 39
Likely Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 42
Likely Voters (w/ undecideds allocated):
Obama 52, McCain 46
===================================
LV screen indicates that UNDs split equally, or at best 40/60 +/-
excellent #'s for BHO !!!
minimum of 6% lead & comfortably over 50% in LVII
What is up with the FL numbers? I see no good news there for McCain.
Nate, Nate, Nate, you didn't include Palin in your graph. Or Biden, though the later can be excused since everyone seems to be looking past Joe ... which I think is a mistake.
Yup, Palin is stomping the top of her ticket. It's the "new comer, public attention driver" effect we are seeing. If only she could back up the attention she's getting with some substance...
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck.
It's spelled barack hussein, not barrack hussein.
The right search is not both names together, it is each alone.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mcain
Matches Nates.
This doesn't take into account all the international google searches.
I told a friend of mine that I canvassed for the Obama campaign yesterday. He said that he had voted for Obama and that he comes from three generations of MT publishers voting "Not Democratic".
Go Obama train, go.
tonac - a skin conditioning treatment based on accupuncture
justsomeguy, the last Selzer poll was in the field 10/28 to 10/31 and show O:M 54:37. That is just a few days old.
@Abyssoft:
Shows a much different story. if Barrack obama is 1, john mccain is a whopping 12.5 o.O
Yep. Barrack Obama is not very popular. Barack Obama, however, seems to be doing quite well.
I know, I know... Spelling is hard.
CA: MCCAIN + 12
NY: MCCAIN + 20
IL: MCCAIN + 17
IA: MCCAIN + 9
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!
This puts Obama's Google popularity in crystal clear perspective..
he's more popular than porn!
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama,+mccain,+porn&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
yvonne-
...and it ends on exactly the date my first post says it did.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22john+mccain%22%2C+%22bob+barr%22%2C+%22Sarah+Palin%22%2C+%22Joe+Biden%22&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
LMFAO!!!! BOB BARR IS BEATING JOE BIDEN!!!!
AND PALIN IS CRUSHING HUSSEIN!!!
PLEASE ignore the trolls & sock puppets
DNFTT
Abyssoft,
It helps to spell the man's name right.
Barack, with one r and a Hussein after.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Why does the trend not look nearly as different between the candidates, as Nate's?
Breaking on Drudge.....
PeteKent sock-puppet "pals around" with concern trolls... Developing....
Is it possible that this google trend line just shows that younger people are still very interested in Obama? I feel like the people most likely to search google for Obama or McCain are young people like myself. So this trend line really shows nothing that we didn't already know.
Ahh, my time frams is different, Nate is right. Obama is seeing a late jump.
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
7. Connecticut, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
@Andy: I had an idea there was no Nobel Prize for Mathematics in the back of my head. They have Fields Medals instead. Stupid me....
Don't be so hard on yourself. I'd guess like 1% of Americans know of the Fields Medal, and most of those probably remember it from Goodwill Hunting.
In contrast, apropos of nothing, work on fruit flies can put you in the running for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.
(VW I Ching: surelaft: amused reaction to a self-referential VW.)
Shitty PEW numbers. Expected better.
I'm guessing FL numbers are down because it's projecting based on a trend. The polling average is still +2.4, but the model is aggressively adjusting things downward. It seems like an overadjustment to me (the most recent polls still show O+1ish) but maybe it's accounting for the "national tightening" as well.
(pesse - everyone here seems so pesse-mistic about a 6% chance of losing!)
If you look up Obama and antichrist, the first site that comes up is snopes. Most internet savvy people trust snopes; so this is nothing to worry about. I am a first time poster. I am an addict to this site. I am looking forward to making history on 11/4. We are living in historic times that we will tell our children about.
I think that looking for either candidate on google is not a representative way of casting how the election will go. But what I think it does represent is the demographic of each candidate, and where would each demo get there election coverage from. Don't suppose many McCain supporters gonna look on the internet for info about him, whereas Obama supporters (and even most ardent anti types) are going top find out as much as possible from the internet. Al;so when all you are doing is attacking the otehr guy, it doesn't jin up much excitement in you.
nate silver vs real joe
http://www.google.com/trends?q=nate+silver%2C+real+joe&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0
LOL
LOL! The PEW numbers are phenomenal as their final prediction.
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
Real joe is crushing petekent
http://www.google.com/trends?q=real+joe%2C+petekent&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Noone has ever searched for Pete!
Did you think Obama was going to win +15? Really?
I think Pew is almost dead on with alloacted LV: 52-46
I am going with 53-45 personally, but how could you be upset with those numbers?
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
From the BBC (3 minutes in:
"Frank Luntz: I can't foresee a scenario were John McCain can win"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7703000/7703725.stm
GOTV Obama teams are in the streets full force in Erie, PA. OH! BAMA!.
justsomeguy said...
Real joe is crushing petekent
WOOT WOOT !
I'll take anything over a 2 point win for Obama, as 2 points in the popular it is almost impossible to lose the electoral.
dcm in fl said...
PLEASE ignore the trolls & sock puppets
The ones that apparently can't read graphs? Done. ;)
chris said...
This puts Obama's Google popularity in crystal clear perspective..
he's more popular than porn!
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama,+mccain,+porn&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
LOL. I love that clockwork weekly uptick in the orange line. The weekends are for looking at porn! :)
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
Saying that, there's no way Obama would still be +15. It's definately in line with the majority though.
Real Joe's surprise is that he's actually Joe Biden.
I think Pete is drinking...
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
PORRIDGE
did you read the PEW report internals or just scan the toplines ???
the report & analysis is topnotch & right in line with Nate's projection FWIW
it confirms that Obama WILL win this election comfortably IMHO
everyone should read the entire report - the #'s are conservative & great for BHO !
----------------------------------
November 2, 2008
'Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days'
@ http://people-press.org/report/468/obama-leads-mccain-in-final-days
"Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters.
Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately.
Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.
In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory."
---------------------------------
wv - 'jusease'
BTW - Chuck Todd just said that all the state polling releases INCLUDING Mason-Dixon the trendlines are all strongly in favor of OBAMA...
simmer down, simmer down....
That's a sockpuppet, not me. click on both of our names, mine has my blog on it.
STUPID liberal f*ck.
If you didn't think Mccain could generate interest, look at Biden.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain%2C+palin%2C+biden&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0
Shows last 30 days all 4 candidates.
I've read a few articles lately. From everything I've seen, heard, read and noticed here in NW Oregon in the last few months, it seems pretty clear that the "H." in "Jesus H. Christ" stands for "Hussein."
Go Real Joe! so happy you beat PK on The Google.
Remember PPP releasing a bunch of polls tonight.
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
I forgot to include, "I've also scanned some blogs."
PETE KENT:
NO ONE CARES YOU STUPID MORON!!!!
Sorry guys, this is the only and last time I will ever engage a moronic troll. He probably didn't graduate high school, that's why he can't figure out that the keyboard does have a setting other than caps.
HILLARY CLINTON NUMBERS RANKED:
6. Pennsylvania, United States
8. Ohio, United States
Not sounding very good for you libs!!
It's 3 a.m. and your family is safe and asleep...
Thanks to the dumbass dems, MCCAIN will be answering that phone, not HILLARY! Hahaa!!!
Is there any way to ignore certain posters as in block them from showing up on your screen? Some forums have this and most other forums have at least a minimum conduct standard so that a poster whose contribution amounts to nothing more than cunt nigger fuck would be banned. This isn't a first amendment issue. These maneuvers are not someone asserting their view, they are just abuse intended to shut down the conversation.
Just got back from canvassing in PA for Obama.
Impressed by the enthusiasm and organization.
I can tell you that in Darby, PA, the A-A population is ready to turn out big-time.
Idon't think the software is very sophisticated, but Nate will attack this isue with same wonderful intelligence he takes to stats when the election is over.
Sorry if this question has been asked before, but when can the networks starting calling state electoral races? I have to work Tuesday night and I will not be home till 9 PM.
petekent,
Your references to Hillary are, at best, irrelevant. More likely, they indicate overwhelming distaste for Palin.
As an Ohio voter, I voted for Hillary. Why? O had already won enough delegates by the Ohio primary. I was all for letting Hillary bash a few more cracks in the ceiling.
Would I have considered voting for Mc? Absolutely . . . until he picked Palin. Within the week of that selection, I donated money to Obama and began volunteering on his campaign although I'd never volunteered on a campaign before in my life (and actually HATE campaigns . . . .)
That's a sockpuppet, not me. click on both of our names, mine has my blog on it.
I don't know if you are the sockpuppet or the real deal, but that blog, down to the template, looks and sounds like the one my son made when he was ten during the 2004 election. His had more pictures of Newt Gingrich with bad microsoft paint snot added to his face (I need to ask him why he was pissed at Newt in 2004). Get to work with something like that.
6* Penjsylv]nia,Unitad St]tes
4. Oheo, UjitedStatasYou#re aSTUPED li^eralf*ckHAHADILLANY CLENTONNUMBARS R=NKED6
6. Lennsulvanea, UjitedStatas
8.Ohio( Uniped Spates Not ooundeng vary gkod fkr yoq libo!!HADAHAH=HAHA=HHAH=HAAH=HHA
Uou'ra a SPUPIDlibenal f&ck
H=HAHADAHAH=HAHA=HHAH=HAAH=HHA
Uou'ra a SPUPIDlibe2. Pejnsylrania( Uniped Spates 8. Odio, Qnite` Stapesrah f*cg
HAH=HAHADAHAH=HAAHDAHAH=AHAHDA
Yoq're ] STULI6. Lennsulvanea, UjitedStatas
8.Ohio( Uniped Spates@ libaral b*ck
DAHAH=HAHADAHAH=AHHADAHAADAHHAYou'ne a OTU6.Pennoylvajia, Qnite` Stapes
8* Ohik, Uneted OtateoPID hiber]l f*_k
HADAHAH=HAHADAHAADHAHADAAHADHA
Yku'rea STQPID hiber]l f*_k
HADAHAH2. Pejnsylrania( Uniped Spates 8. Odio, Qnite` StapesAH=HAHADAAHH=HAHA=HAHH=
Not sounding very good for you libs!!HAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHHA
You're a STUPID liberal f*ck
kittles-
The same is true in Philly, I just hope the polling places can handle the volume.
Hey, for all those PA worriers, did you miss the fact that the new Rasmussen poll has improved for Obama compared to Friday and has almost the same numbers as on Tuesday? It's: 52-46 (compared to 51-47 and earlier 53-46).
The point is, of course, that Obama, just as in Rasmussens national polls and in all non-partisan polls for PA except for MD's, is constantly polling 50% or higher.
So much for PA switching fast to McCain.
Per Daily Kos:
At least 200,000 mail in/absentee votes, possibly more, that arrive on Tuesday will NOT be counted for at least 48 hours.
The odds are long against it happening - but what if Obama loses PA and most of the other battlegrounds, and it comes down to AZ?
The Gov is a Dem, the Sos a Repub
nc moderate-
They can call a few before then, but it is likely that PA, FL, OH and VA will be close enough not to call until 10-12.
Wow. Even *I'm* more popular than Dick Cheney!!!
http://www.google.com/trends?q=pa+john%2C+dick+cheney&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=1
Link
O still hasn't appeared at the Cleveland rally. I'm betting that they're timing it for after the Browns game ends, although it's effectively over right now.
They set it up in the oddest way. The area is a long rectangle and they set the stage up in the middle of one of the long sides . . . not quite sure why they did that. People were lined up at 5 am even though they couldn't get in until 2 pm.
Here are the page view stats for the candidates articles on wikipedia. I think it would be an excellent followup post.
http://stats.grok.se/en/200810/John%20Mccain
1,897,140 times in Oct
http://stats.grok.se/en/200810/Barack%20Obama
2,949,975 times in Oct
Interestingly for the minnesota race Franken has over 2x the page views as Coleman:
http://stats.grok.se/en/200810/Al%20Franken
75,314 times in Oct
http://stats.grok.se/en/200810/Norm%20Coleman
34,737 times in Oct
Dave
Don't let the sockpuppet fool you.
Here's my blog:
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
ZOOBEE
Ignore function ? not that I know of unfortunately
but besides using F5 for refresh, if you are viewing the comments in a separate tab/full screen window [accessed by RIGHT clicking on the 'comment' link - on a PC w/WIN using IE - then choosing 'open in a new tab' which creates a BLOGGER tab & a full comment window]
then if you see an offensive or long post that you would like to ignore, one can LEFT click on the poster name, then close that small blogger ID window, and the offensive post magically disappears !
unfortunately you must repeat this each time - but that is what I do for the pests like PETE the SOCK PUPPET who posts non-stop nonsense just to try to get a reaction from the newbies
FWIW
DCM in FL,
I want to see Obama ahead by double digits in any mational poll's final result. I'm sure it was a bit of an outler, but Obama was +15 in the previous PEW poll.
ROFLMAO The PeteKent sockpuppet, is getting pissy over having a sockpuppet!!
--Sorry if this question has been asked before, but when can the networks starting calling state electoral races? I have to work Tuesday night and I will not be home till 9 PM.--
States will start being called after 7 PM ET.
Before 9 PM a lot of states should be called. IN, PA, VA, Ohio, FL, NC, GA are among the battlegrounds that might have sufficient data, as we know, PA + any of these sort of would tell the story.
NEWS & ED
that is a PETE sock puppet you are feeding
PLEASE, DNFTT
Pete,
You and your sockpuppet have the same blogger id. Explain?
I like nothing better than a huge dick going up my rectum.
BTW, I make no apologies for being greedy and stubborn when it comes to polls. I find it absurd that McCain is above 40%. The Republican ticket is a joke.
Why does the ad at the bottom of the page say "I am Joe the Plumber Don't Tax me for working hard?" Joe just appears to gad around trying to mooch a few chicken dinner or something.
I love there's a whole website just for the ninnies tho:
http://isbarackobamamuslin.com
Darn those Muslins! If you can! There's holy!
that is a PETE sock puppet you are feeding
PLEASE, DNFTT
Dude, I'm losing my mind trying not to drink myself into oblivion while I wait for the next 48 hours to end. If I want to indulge in playing with some trolls, just cut me some slack, hokay :D
No we don't have the same blogger ID. Click on the guy that made a random post full of scrambled letters and this one, and we both have different blogs.
Feeding the trolls means more outrageous comments
More outrageous comments leads to comments being monitored
Comments being monitored means that there are delays - maybe hours - between when poster given new polling data and when we see them
What part of this do people not get?
PORRIDGE
you are comparing apples to bitter oranges
the slight differences is due to pushing the UNDs, and the minor differences are within the MOE
read the analysis
the #'s today are almost identical to those from 3-4 weeeks ago
there was an apparent dead cat bounce last 2 weeks, but his support remains over 50%
don't worry, be HAPPY !!!
Before 9 PM a lot of states should be called. IN, PA, VA, Ohio, FL, NC, GA are among the battlegrounds that might have sufficient data, as we know, PA + any of these sort of would tell the story.
Don't be shocked if the nets don't call anything currently considered a toss-up (whether it really is or not) before 9:45PM. They may call some of those states "Too early to call" as opposed to "Too close to call". This happened in the primary in a few places. PA in particular wasn't "called" until about 9:30, even though the outcome was obvious soon after the polls closed.
Pete,
The person who's been spamming in all caps for a long time now, including the most recent post I find:
"LMFAO!!!! BOB BARR IS BEATING JOE BIDEN!!!!
AND PALIN IS CRUSHING HUSSEIN!!!"
and this gem:
"I will be here on 11/4 to laugh at you liberal dumbasses when your MESSIAH loses in a MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!"
Is in fact you. Both IDs end in 8737 and bring up your blog. There's also another Pete on this thread whose ID ends in 8712 that isn't you.
Regardless, you clearly made a lot of the troll posts here. Don't try to confuse us.
Wow, when I'm beibg sock puppeted, things are getting desperate. LOL
Is it bad I want to shove a live gerbil into my crusty butthole?
PorridgeGun said...
BTW, I make no apologies for being greedy and stubborn when it comes to polls.
Actually that's no entirely true. I'd be perfectly fine with the Dems falling short of a 60-seat majority if Franken takes back Paul Wellstone's seat. Jim Martin taking back Max Cleland's seat would be a bonus. But the main priority is getting 8.
SFERGUS
thank you !
when ANYONE feeds the trolls & sock puppets, we ALL suffer
it is not amusing, and wastes everyone's time & energy
DNFTT
One time I shoved 2 dildos in my ass.
Comments being monitored means that there are delays - maybe hours - between when poster given new polling data and when we see them
What part of this do people not get?
You have lost your mind, you should take the opposite of my advice to myself and sedate yourself for a few days. You need it, my friend.
Is it bad that I like to pleasure myself by having sex with roadkill?
I had a meatsock puppet once... and I fucking KILLED IT!!!
Methodology for this Google Comparison is more than a little lacking...
I went to google trends and found something very interesting.
I put in all four: palin, mccain, obama, biden to the search terms, and Palin was pretty high right after the VP debates. Searches for her also peaked WAY up on 10/19. I had to go back and look at what happened on 10/19 - Colin Powell endorsed Obama on 10/19 and it looks like that endorsement caused a whole lot of Palin searches through google.
Can't be good news for McCain.
God vs. devil God is still up in the searches just prior to Nov. 4th.
Nate, you stole my EXACT idea! LOL.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/22/94256/828/159/638535
I guess great minds think alike. Though, I did also do a Obama-McCain-Palin three-way comparison for giggles.
I just LOVE how Rasmussen tries to describe the new 6% PA lead as little changed from Thursday's 4% lead....
Hmmmm..... I'll take a 50% increase over a few days any time, thanks!
Peter Kent,
I suggest you go with a .45 CAL ACP, 185 grain HP to your temple when Obama is announced our next president around 10:30 PM ET.
I did some research myself last month and looked at web trends. I just did a quick compare on Alexa.com which ranks websites based on traffic, page views and other stats. Out of all websites johnmccain.com traffic ranks 2,580. The traffic rank for barackobama.com comes in at 753. Here's a link if you'd like to look at top Presidental websites.
http://www.alexa.com/browse?&CategoryID=1173450
Wow, I can't believe that some of the Obama birth certificate nonsense even continued on Friday... Amazing.
There's exactly the same thing with Wikipedia's traffic statistics on both articles, with added granularity that allows to see small spikes for each of the debates:
Wikipedia votes Obama.
The blog's in French but the chart is self-explanotory.
abcamire said:
"if you type "obama" into the google search bar, the suggested search terms include "muslim," "antichrist," "tax plan," "acorn." all signs that voters are looking up negative information on him, i think."
Obama Girl is also one of the top searches. So voters are also looking up sexy information on him.
I will confess that I google Palin quite a lot, because I get a giggle from some of the stuff people say about her :) The people who knew her back when bitching about her use of secret email accounts, for instance. And all the entertaining speculation about why she hasn't released her health records, for instance. I'm not proud of it, but dammit, she's colorful :/ You could hardly make up a better character.
Anyway, this leads me to suspect that the frequency of google search terms might be most directly linked to what's titillating. After all, we know what the Internet is for. That and stats :)
This is a heart-warming story from the Christian Science Monitor today (Republican banker canvasses for Obama, what he found):
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1103/p09s02-coop.html
Obama's numbers fell a bit since you took that screenshot. It's also interesting to see the results by State. A lot of the searches are coming from swing states with Obama taking in about twice as many searches:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+mccain&ctab=0&geo=US&date=mtd&sort=0
First?
Look who's Mr Popular Spiking search term all the sudden:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=nate+silver&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all
Nate, the economy is bad enough as it is and probably half of that came from the loss of productivity from people reading your site.
Now you've got me playing google trend games!
This analysis means less than nothing. Most likely, persons with internet connections are more likely to be Obama supporters, therefore more likely to do searches with his name.
Period.
This analysis is useless and beneath the quality we expect from 538.
I wish this meant something. It doesn't. This election is about Obama. For both sides. That's why he gets Googled.
I'd be interested to see if McCain even gets googled more than that woman on his ticket.
Change the date parameters on the Google Trends page and you'll see that Obama hasn't just led McCain in terms of internet traffic this month; he's been consistently ahead ever since he announced his candidacy in October 2006.
petekent and the sock-puppet petekent do have different blogger id's.
That would be the one true thing petekent has said all year.
This doesn't really prove anything. If you search the traffic by state, the results reflect the same +Obama trend even in heavy McCain states like Utah and Oklahoma.
Palin gets more Google searches than McCain. But for a good time, to figure out what that big Palin spike is for, compare Palin and SNL.
brilliant. use of my favorite internet tool.
I just wrote a new post, Obama vs. McCain vs. Palin vs. Biden in the Last Month: Details on my Word Face-Off blog that attempted to answer some of the questions raised here. I analyzed the Google searches for the presidential and VP candidates by state and studied the context of the searches (positive or negative). Also interesting for those who haven't read them yet are previous posts about the "Google-popularity" of Obama and McCain and their parties, geographically, chronologically, etc.: Three-day average interest in Obama and McCain by state and top cities, Democratic Party vs. Republican Party vs. Green Party vs. Libertarian Party vs. Constitution Party (part 1, part 2, part 3), Obama vs. McCain.
Obama surge in searches coincides with the infomercial
http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama,+mccain,+palin,+biden&date=mtd&geo=usa&ctab=0&sort=0&sa=N
PR4
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