If neither candidate gets to 50% (there is a third-party candidate), then there will be a runoff on December 2. With 20.2% of the results in, Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent Republican, is holding 59.4% of the vote. Remember, Fulton and DeKalb, particularly heavily Democratic DeKalb, are often last to report.
Chambliss needs to hold 50%. If there is a special election, those races heavily favor the energized. With Bruce Lundsford neck and neck with Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (Arjun Jaikuma is pessimistic about Lundsford's chances based on which counties have come in), Dems may well need this seat to reach 60.
We've already had emails from Obama organizers from around the country who have purchased their tickets to Georgia to win the 60th seat. That's energy. If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is getting back in the car and heading for Georgia.
11.04.2008
The Georgia Senate Race
@ 8:55 PM
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19 comments
Damn it looks sluggish
I notice you haven't yet 'called' GA for McCain...
With Hagen just called the winner in NC and an apparent win for Obama, I think the single biggest defeat of the night is the defeat of gutter politics. They don't work anymore. And good riddance.
The best capper to that would be a Chambliss defeat, as payback for 2002.
Come on Georgia!
that's crazy
Is it 50% or 49%? The CNN guy said 49% but he certainly could be wrong or I could have misunderstood him.
Jakam said...
With Hagen just called the winner in NC and an apparent win for Obama, I think the single biggest defeat of the night is the defeat of gutter politics. They don't work anymore. And good riddance.
I totally agree with that. Get rid of that crap. Obama ran a really clean and upstanding campaign.
They called ND for McCain, but not SD, NE, KS. That's too weird.
A runoff is not a "special election." It's required by Georgia law (if no one gets at least one vote more than 50% today).
I think if the Democrats win 59 seats the runoff could give an advantage to Chambliss through a "Stop the Dems" message, given Georgia is a conservative state. Voting today most people won't be nearly as aware of what the other results are expected to be, but campaigning in the runoff would be different. You'd have less anger at the incumbent Republican presidency (given a near certain Obama win, he will be a pseudo-incumbent by that point) and with a filibuster proof majority in the balance it'd be easy to paint it as the last defense to a total Democratic sweep.
Although, if the Dems reach 58 seats, perhaps you'd be able to get more conservative voters to vote Democrat on the basis that "there are still enough Republicans to block a filibuster anyway".
"If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is getting back in the car and heading for Georgia."
I don't know how to thank you for your dedication. What a service to us all.
Note: the vote totals for Pres and Senate races total about 1.4 million at this point, which is far less than the early vote totals. So clearly they are not included at this point. (nearly 42% of the AA voters voted early)
BTW, FOX calls Ohio for Obama. With Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, this race looks to be over.
wow, with 64% polls reporting in GA, 19% lead for McCain and 16% for Chambliss. How on earth were polls pretty accurate everywhere else, yet every pollster was off by at least 10 points in GA?
Don't toot your horns guys. The GA senate is not even close. Chambliss is going to win the seat as I had projected. I live in this shitty state, I know these bucolic rednecks:
Chabmliss win is guaranteed
However, if you take a look closer, you'll notice that all the major counties which rack up hundreds of TP's haven't been reported as it's expected to come online after 11 PM. Nonetheless, the projection from these counties won't be enough to buy Democrats another Senate seat; I wish it did, but it's not going to happen, period and neither the presidential vote. I know these people better than anyone else. I am just happy Obama just got Ohio and eventually Virginia (Fairfax and Alexandra counties which I lived once when I worked in DC are being reported 2 to 1 for Obama which raps up another 50k to compensate for 15k that Obama is behind right now) and hopefully NC and FL -- he is doing well too.
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