It appears that the late ballots did, after all, bring incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss under 50% in his race against Jim Martin, and so a special election will be held December 2, four weeks after the yesterday's election day.
In special elections, turnout is generally way down from general elections. It becomes much more about base motivation, organization, and GOTV. So, although Jim Martin appears to have been behind by a handful of points last night, don't assume he can't win a special election, even if the polls show him behind in every release.
As we said last night, we've been getting emails from organizers who had already purchased their plane tickets to come down to Georgia. It won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless, and Democrats will have the rallying cry of "Remember Max Cleland!" Chambliss defeated Cleland in 2002 after airing a notorious ad that tied war hero Cleland to Osama bin Laden.
Keep an eye on this race, especially for the influx of organizing.
11.05.2008
Georgia Senate Race Headed For Runoff
@ 12:38 PM
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The Associated Press had said they expected 136.6 million votes in this election. But all the networks have the total on 120 million votes with about 97% declared. What's happened to those 15 million votes?
Any idea when the final Presidential results will be in for Georgia?
Martin will lose a run-off. I know the democrats are more enthusiastic, but Obama was the main source of enthusiasm. Without him on the ticket how can Martin pull it off?
So what happened with those early voting ballots?
Oregon Update
taken from dailykos
Oregonian this morning has this on its webiste:
"Despite the closeness of the count, expert number crunchers said they expect Merkley to win, perhaps handily. Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, appearing as an analyst on Fox News(12), outright called the race for Merkley, based primarily on how many votes remain uncounted in Democrat-rich Multnomah County."
Follow numbers here
http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html
Why has NC not been called for Obama? 12,000 votes seems like a substantial lead, much bigger than McCain's lead in MO that was called for him by MSNBC.
Also, what's the deal with GA? How many votes are still outstanding? Seems like something fishy is going on.
It won't be for the 60th seat? It could be.
Alaska and Oregon are still uncertain, Minnesota is headed for a recount.
i remembe3r max too. i hope the Democrats really work at getting this.
i will never understand stevens. how wacky are they up there?
Pocket Nines is stealing the election- stop him, someone!!
Any idea where Franken's race is going?
And what about that convict in Alaska?
Perhaps a campaign rally led by President-Elect Obama will help.
Yes, as others have said - I'm really curious as to why the total votes don't seem to add up to the huge turnout... are there a lot more votes to be counted? And if so - what kind of votes are they?
Don't assume that Martin will lose a runoff. Obama won't be at the top of the ticket, but he and every other Dem remotely popular in Georgia will be stumping their asses off.
Also, GA might well be the 60th. Merkley is close with Smith, and Multnomah County has a lot of ballots left to be counted. AK also has a bunch of absentee ballots left, and MN will be a recount.
Franken is headed for a recount. He's down 600 votes with 100% in.
The runoff is going to be a stomachache. Don't get complacent because of the Obama organizer plane ticket rumors. The reality is, the base on the other side is VERY motivated too, for a whole complex of reasons I don't even want to describe right now because it's (in part) so ugly.
Nate on "On Point" this morning- enjoy your success Nate, I look forward to seeing/hearing you every 4 years for the rest of my life.
I have been unable to find much about the missing/uncounted votes in several states- hope we get some analysis soon.
wv: whisma- "Whisma Real Joe surprise? Have you seen it?
Sign me up. Seriously.
If Stevens wins in AK it seems likely that that'll go to a special election too, but as getting rid of Stevens was the big Dem selling point up there...well, screw. Begich vs Palin? I'd bet on the moose, I'm afraid. But I think Martin has more of a chance, don't you?
Is there anything to the reports that as many as 2 million votes were not reported by Fulton and Gwinnett counties in the election totals? Fulton went to Obama 70-30, so 1M votes uncounted in Fulton county would net Obama 400k. What's the deal? Is this just a crazy rumor? http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
15 million missing votes - anyone interested?
Holy shit...no...NOOOOOO
STEVENS HAS TO LOSE! PLEASE DO NOT PALIN GET A SENATE SEAT!!
I have doubts that Max Cleland is such a potent rallying cry. After all the voters were complicit in Chambliss's criticism of him.
That said, I think Martin has a chance. But he can't succeed by looking backward to Cleland. He has to look forward, and Obama has to support him and even campaign for him.
T.W. - I'd love to hear more about that, if not here then by email - my email's in my profile. If I can find a way to do so within my very limited circumstances, I want to help Jim Martin win this one, so the more I know the better.
Not sure if this has been mentioned in another thread, but Obama has passed Bush's 2004 vote total. He's now earned more votes than any presidential candidate in history.
Obama 2008 (per cnn.com at 11:52 CST 11/5/08): 63,112,190
Bush 2004 (per Dave Leip): 62,040,610
Cheer up, tkk13above. Team Obama is not going to disband anytime soon. You can be sure an adequately funded GOTV expeditionary force will be dispatched to bury Jim Martin's red opponent under an avalanche of blue votes.
@andy js
Could it be the AP's turnout estimate was just wrong?
@Gamecoug
Fulton so far is down as 106k McCain, 237k Obama. I they DID have 60% uncounted then that would be worth ~160k to Obama.
Gwinnett goes the other way though. McCain 158k, Obama 128k.
The big one would be DeKalb if there are a huge number left ouncounted. 65k McCain, 253k Obama.
Current results are here
http://sos.georgia.gov/ELECTIONS/election_results/2008_1104/001.htm
I would seriously love it if Georgia went blue. It should have been much closer than the 5.6% it currently stands at, or an Obama victory.
This would be a great time for Obama to put his organization to work and spreadsome $ to help with the runoff campaign. That GA race is going to be intense.
wv:
AP: California same-sex marriage ban approved by voters
WOOT WOOT !!
Will Suxby have anything to compare to the GOTV database that I am assuming Obama will unleash for Martin? I think Martin's got a great chance.
While all this senate stuff is quite wonderful, what the monkey is going on in NE-2?! The way I count the votes, it looks like President-elect Obama should be a head by about four.
wv- 'essess' 'Winning one electoral vote in Nebraska would add to President-elect Obama's essess of overall votes'
Every winning candidate in a two man race typoically breaks a record in total votes b/c of population growth.
I wonder if anyone will every surpass LBJ's percentage margin of victory (30 pts) over Goldwater. Now that was a landslide.
This is how we do it.
One.Step.At.A.Time
We may falter, but the drive to move forward must continue.
I have no doubt the Pres.-Elect Obama will lend support if not lead the charge.
Rolling.Thunder.Baby
Obama won PA,OH
McCain Surge !!!
Does anyone know for sure that Alaska is official? Aren't there still some precincts out?
And why isn't NC being called? How can 12,000 votes be overcome with less than half a percent of precincts still remaining?
Can someone please clarify something for me?
Currently, the Dailykos Electoral Map is showing 55 Senators called for the Dems (+2 independents, adding up to 57), with 4 races still up in the air: Begich/Stevens in Alaska, Merkley/Smith in Oregon, Franken/Coleman in Minnesota (going to a mandated recount), and Martin/Chambliss in Georgia (going to a run-off election) - to me, this adds up to say that if the Dems win 3 of those 4, they'll have a filibuster-proof Senate.
However, Kos himself, in his latest post, said that the Dems only had 56 guaranteed Senators, and Sean seems to say that a 60th seat is not possible.
So, who is mistaken, and where is the mistake? Is there still a realistic possibility for the Dems to reach 60?
Repeated from the earlier thread:
I think the Bradley effect has been superseded by the Bachmann/Stevens effect, where voters will tell pollsters that they aren't going to vote for nutjobs/felons, fearing the social pressure, but being the ignorant idiots they are, planned on doing it anyway.
Still nothing on Ted Stevens from this site. Is Nate or 538 ever going to call themselves to account for the 100% prediction that Stevens would lose.
Thats far worse for the credibility then had McCain pulled the upset. At least they gave him a 1.1% chance, but said the Alsaska seat was 100% safe for the Democrats. 100% means it impossible to win.
The problem wasn't with nate's model it was with him injecting his own bias into the model by getting rid of the pre-conviction polls had he let the model alone instead of deciding what polls it could use in this race he wouldn't be having pie on his face, and 538's face right now.
The credibility of this site has been severely damanged by this. You just cann't say something is a 100% sure thing, and then be wrong.
I agree with what other folks said. Recount in MN, outstanding votes in OR are in Dem counties so that's likely to tilt back toward Merkley. Alaska is the wildcard. I can't seem to find any more specific data on the locations of the remaining ballots there. If there are quite a few from Anchorage, then Stevens could be in bigger trouble than he seems to be right now.
Every winning candidate in a two man race typoically breaks a record in total votes b/c of population growth.
True, but total turnout also typically breaks a record because of population growth and that may not happen this year.
BTW, "typoically" = LOL
If Merkley wins Oregon, we'll have 57. If Begich wins Alaska, we'll have 58. If the recount favors Franken, we'll have 59. The run-off will determine if we get 60.
Our chances aren't looking too good...but at least we have 56 sealed up. (55 minus Lieberman)
I think the reason Merkley and Begich are losing is because of depressed turnout on the west coast, since they already knew Obama won. It sucks!
I read that most of the uncounted ballots in AK are from rural areas where Stevens traditionally has large support.
Anybody know what is up the turnout in Alaska? The had 308,000 votes cast in 2004, their population has been steadily increasing by about 1% each year, they had a native on a national ticket, and the senate race has been highly publicized. Yet, only 221,000 votes have been cast so far for the senate race with 99% reporting. It seems to me that there should be about 100,000 missing votes. That is almost a 1/3 of the expected votes missing!! What is up with this?
@dennis580
The problem wasn't with nate's model it was with him injecting his own bias into the model
You just explained why the credibility of this site is, in fact, NOT terribly damaged by Stevens' (potential) win.
theoretically there could be 2 million uncounted georgian votes
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/voter_registration/vrgraphs.htm
5,755,750 registrations.
But assuming they had turnout as follows
30% black @ 85%
70% other @ 70%
A max of around 4.2mil voters is more feasible. Georgia is already up to 3.85 mil votes counted so there is very little room left for Obama to get the votes he needs.
But who knows? Whack other up to 75% and there are about 600,000 votes still to count.
Max Cleland finally vindicated
wv: foarkity - circumstance when you are at a fork in the road
You just cann't say something is a 100% sure thing, and then be wrong.
It's not Nate's fault. His model can only work with the data the pollsters give him. The POLLSTERS were wrong. Terribly wrong.
I just don't see how the turnout could be as low as the total votes are adding up to now - that goes against every indication. It doesn't make any sense. Is anyone on the MSM asking this question? Are the early votes not being counted?
@mshawn --
read my DKos diar on why the NC results for presidential race are not being called yet.
"The credibility of this site has been severely damanged by this. You just cann't say something is a 100% sure thing, and then be wrong."
If the only polls after a felony conviction show an 8 and 22 point lead, no model in the world is going to show that race in doubt.
This just chalks up to Alaska being a really crazy place.
Also, Stevens isn't actually that likely to win given the number of absentee ballots uncounted.
Is that Nebraska electoral vote still being contested?
I haven't heard anything about it
Real Joe's surprise is definitely that he's a homophobic asshole
andrew:
It could be, but I don't think anyone was expecting less votes in the election than in 2004. At least 5 million more votes were expected, although that would have been a bit disappointing. I was expecting at least 10 million extra voters.
Think about all the early voting queues, and also the queues on election day itself.
The Stevens Effect:
When you tell a pollster there is no way you'll vote for a convicted criminal, and then do so.
Before the election, AJC was predicting 5+ million votes cast in GA. (http://bit.ly/19N06b)
As of right now, there are only 3.8 million votes cast in the presidential race in GA. (http://bit.ly/3TDyQi)
Fulton and Gwinnett didn't include early votes last night (http://bit.ly/2p44B1) -- can anyone confirm that's where the million-vote gap is coming from?
For Mrs. B (shoud she return) . . .
Mrs B, you misapprehend me.
****
Pete Kent: What do you get when you combine Genetic Engineering and Abortion? Answer: No Homosexuals!
Don't care which Pete Kent you are, you have just put yourself beyond the pale.
Bog off, as we say in the UK.
****
Because I oppose unfettered genetic engineering and abortion on demand I was making a point that Homosexuals were less at risk under my social regime than that of the Liberals.
Let's face it won't we come to the point as portrayed in the movie Gataca where all undesirable traits will be bred out of us?
Don't you think breeders will, if left to their own devices, prefer to have heterosexual children, resulting in the birth of fewer and fewer humans that carry the Gay Gene that we are told that exists?
That's my point. Just being provocative, but pointing out that there are alternatives and un-intended consequences.
On Alaska, it seems obvious to me that if Stevens wins Bush will pardon him and issue a statement saying that the voters made the ultimate judgement about his guilt by re-electing him.
On Georgia, the Dems may be motivated, but the Republicans will also be hyper-motivated to show that President-elect Obama doesn't have the pull to sway a race. There will be extreme pressure on Obama to make some appearances on behalf of Martin, consequently the GOP will go all out to knock the new guy down a peg or two.
Let me repost.
I've been researching why North Carolina remains the only un-called state in the Presidential race.
Basically the margin is so close, that the individual counties need to verify and approve the individual provisional ballots. I just talked to the state elections board and they verified that the results from the counties should start trickling in today or tomorrow, but they are not legally due until 11/14.
Really want to see NC turn tarheel blue! Head over to my DKos diary linked above for more updates.
If Ted Stevens pulls it out, Nate Silver is going to have some explaining to do after he wipes all the egg off his face. Not only did his formula have Stevens losing 100%, he made the comment "Ted Stevens, convicted felon, will lose". What's up with that, Nate?
I'm in Georgia as a volunteer now. If there's a runoff, we've got it.
I'm in Gwinnett, where African Americans were 45% of early voting turnout. The month before elections is absentee-in-person and the week before is "advance" voting. Here, our current totals include the "advance" but no absentees, according to the county website. That means there ARE lots of votes that need to be counted (I don't know if this is true for DeKalb and Fulton too or not, but I'd think and hope so), but probably not enough to make Georgia blue. Definitely enough to warrant a run-off (Saxby's at 49.9% right now, and if there are more votes, they'll likely help out Martin) and enough to make the percentages more respectable for presidential.
Hope this makes sense.
It seems like if all of these early votes are yet to be counted in Georgia that not only could Obama catch up significantly but that Martin could (theoretically) hit 50%.
Real Joe said...
AP: California same-sex marriage ban approved by voters
WOOT WOOT !!
I was a little more eloquent in another thread where smug Real Joe was rejoicing over discrimination being written into a constitution, but I can't be no.
FUCK YOU Real Joe. It's a testament to how far this country has to go that there are people like Real Joe still in this country.
"It's not Nate's fault. His model can only work with the data the pollsters give him. The POLLSTERS were wrong. Terribly wrong."
It is Nate's fault because he decided to take out the pre-conviction polls. He decided which polls the model could use. That is his fault right there.
Still Nate needs to be more careful about assiging 100% to something. He really needs to tweak his model in this regard. 100% is a pretty big thing, and it should not be taken lightly. I think his model is way too generous in throwing out 100%, and does it way too often.
You can't blame anyone for the Ted Stevens nonsense except for the fucking idiots that live in Alaska.
I think Obama will get a long honeymoon. First off the media will supply just the right lighting and romantic music.
If Obama is smart he will bring flowers to McCain and Palin and used them both to bring thei country together.
McCain has credibility as having had a history of bi-partisanship and Palin is the presumptive leader of the faction that is most viscerally opposed to Obama. he could do well to use her ambassadorial skills to heal the rift that he created by running such a race-based campaign.
I wonder how much courage and daring Obama has?
I guess if Palin gets to appoint Ted 'Felon' Stevens' replacement, she'll just have to get out her high school yearbook and find someone who needs a gig. That is, if she doesn't give it to First Dood.
"15 million missing votes - anyone interested?"
Well, according to the results I'm looking at on ABC News, not all precints have reported across a lot of the States.
Could Palin appoint herself? Seems like the best plan for her to get some Washington experience for her 2012 run?
If Stevens wins, Alaska can secede for all I care. Those dumb fuckers. Do they have no shame, electing a convicted felon?
... that he created by running such a race-based campaign.
Pete. Nice try, moron. Reality called. It's time for you to go home. Idiot.
Josh said...
You can't blame anyone for the Ted Stevens nonsense except for the fucking idiots that live in Alaska.
-----------------------------------
Exactly...Alaska should probably secede at this point. They are beyond redemption.
Replace them with the US VI or PR. Nicer places to visit anyways
Congrats, Nate. You made the big time. XKCD.
http://xkcd.com/500/
Of course, the last panel is quite appropriate.
boulder-liberal said...
Could Palin appoint herself? Seems like the best plan for her to get some Washington experience for her 2012 run?
She can't appoint anyone. Thanks to Frank Murkowski's nepotism, Alaska voters passed a law requiring a special election.
Most networks are reporting about 120 million total votes AND saying 97% of national precincts have reported. That's where the 15 million missing votes come in.
A Convincing Win
What’s the under/over on a landslide?
I have heard it says it starts at 55-45.
I think as long as Mac stays at or over 45% Obama has not had anything other than a convincing win, but no landslide.
I think also we must remember that the backbone of Obama’s win was AAs with a liberal dose of suburbanites thrown in for good measure.
Also the states where he flipped, he flipped with money. The great lesson here is Money Talks!
It looks like Obama will win NC, and could flip MO and GA. Also, one EV up for grabs in NE
Regarding the Omaha electoral vote, CNN's total is 16 EV short right now. Those EV should be NC(15) plus Omaha. I don't think any talking heads are aware it remains uncalled.
wow. wv: "sucksbe" chambliss
Nate Silver mentioned in election comic from classic geek comic XKCD!
http://xkcd.com/500/
@samer
thanks for the clarification about the special election.
You think Palin would run for the Senate, if Stevens wins and resigns?
She certainly would beat Begich, who could not win against a convicted felon.
Has anyone else noticed how incredibly close Stevens and Begich are in Alaska? Wasn't Begich polling something like 22 points ahead of Stevens? What's happened?
"FUCK YOU Real Joe. It's a testament to how far this country has to go that there are people like Real Joe still in this country."
Prop 8 did not write discrimination into the constitution. It removed a special right as decided by the supreme court. Gays, like everyone else, will still have the right to marry someone of the opposite sex like they always had before.
I thought Alaskan law does allow her to appoint a temporary person for up to 6 weeks. IMO I think she will appoint herself and then run.
Pete, there was a "Sierra Club" Effect. You over estimated how many "people of the trees" would "come from the forests" and vote. I think it caused McCain 10%. People of the trees were not ready to elect a President from a desert state.
I doubt Oregon's turnout was impacted by the early O call (woot!). There were still people turning in ballots up till 8pm last night. Merkley still has a good chance here -- there are a *lot* of uncounted ballots in Multnomah county, which is heavily populated, and heavily D.
As someone else posted -- Tim Hibbits called this last night. I think he's only been wrong on 2 out of 900 or so races. We'll see -- but don't give up just yet.
I scored a ticket to a function at the American embassy here in Wellington NZ. It was invite to watch the election results and celebrate with them.
It goes without saying that I had the most amazing night, your compatriots here in NZ partied, screamed, cried, yelled and whooped it up. As did we!!
After the Obama speech I found a little corner in the room of my own and just sat and reflected on the enormity of the day, the vote, the courage, the leap of faith that Americans took yesterday. Astounding.
Congratulations.
Alaska Secession? Nah. We bought that place from the Russians fair and square. Got a real bargain, too. Two cents an acre (thank you President McKinley). Besides, I'm a little suspect at letting them make environmental decisions in the arctic without oversight.
I think we will take the Oregon Senate seat. Dkos now has it at less than 10k vote difference (closing) and only 70% in so far.
I think Alaska is not likely, but Minnesota is still a pure toss up with a recount.
Real Joe: stop your stupid gloating about your win for discrimination. I second Jeff NYC Dem's feelings.
But by appointing herself even temporarily, she vacates the governorship, no? So, she'd have to win or be out of a job?
Oh, the sweet, sweet irony...
What happened was that Alaskans are dumb fuckers. Or Palin was rigging the vote.
So...let's see what states left real america:
Iowa
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Nevada
North Carolina
Indiana
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
The credibility of this site has been severely damanged by this. You just cann't say something is a 100% sure thing, and then be wrong.
Apparently this troll doesn't grasp the concepts of credibility, bias, hindsight, or roundoff error.
A Convincing Win
What’s the under/over on a landslide?
A Convincing Win
What’s the under/over on a landslide?
Good, then Ronald Reagan didn't win by a landslide in 1980 since he barely reached 50%. So it was Reagan 50.1%, and the rest 49.9%.. good - no landslide. I'll mark that down.
Moron.
PA didn't leave - it's always been in Fake America.
"It is Nate's fault because he decided to take out the pre-conviction polls. He decided which polls the model could use. That is his fault right there."
Nate did a great job in general, but I think this is a fair criticism. Nate assumed that the felony conviction rendered all old information irrelevant and that assumption turned out to be wrong.
I also agree with whoever upthread coined the term "Stevens Effect". I guess people really don't want to admit to pollsters - even robo-pollsters - that they're going to vote for a convicted felon.
It says something about Alaskans - and not especially good.
@PA John
here was a certain aridity about McCain, but Palin certainly seemed sappy enough!
Reid and Pelosi Must Go!
We need Democrats who will fight criminals like George Bush and Dick Cheney, not work with them.
What did Nancy Pelosi learn about torture in Bush's first term?
Why didn't Harry Reid stand up for impeachment when Pelosi took it off the table?
Why are they afraid to prosecute the war crimes the Bush / Cheney cabal continue to commit?
Democrats need REAL progressive leadership.
Sen. Russ Feingold for Senate Leader.
Cong. Debbie Wasserman Schultz for House leader.
Reid and Pelosi must GO!
WHat is real joe's surprise. I missed it yestersday
@samer
"She can't appoint anyone. Thanks to Frank Murkowski's nepotism, Alaska voters passed a law requiring a special election."
You sure about that? I heard a couple of talking heads on CNN and MSNBC say that she could appoint anyone, including herself.
Am I the only one to notice how scary-accurate the 538 prediction was?
538
O- 52.3% (currently at 52.4)
M- 46.2% (currently at 46.3)
Electoral looks to be a little better for BO than predicted, unless NC drops (I think MO already has).
You guys rock and I hope you get the credit you deserve!!
Scary!
Both Oregon and Washington still have a large number of votes being counted. They could easily push Obama over 53% of the popular vote or even beyond.
Prop 8 did not write discrimination into the constitution.
Lying bigot.
It removed a special right as decided by the supreme court.
Lying bigot.
Gays, like everyone else, will still have the right to marry someone of the opposite sex like they always had before.
Just like everyone used to have the right to marry someone of the same race, you fucking bigot asshole.
Just did a bit of research---she cannot appoint anyone even temporary basis
Real Joe's surpise is that he's still an intolerant bigot.
People, some perspective please? I love xkcd, but Nate >>>> xkcd as it is. He's been on the Colbert Report, for god's sake.
reg Georgia - DeKalb COunty can't have much more to count, unfortunately :(
from the website here
https://dklbweb.dekalbga.org/voter/
absentee voting in person -
"More than 150,897 DeKalb County Voters have taken advantage of this opportunity through Friday, Oct.31,2008 "
add to their votes on the day, 170,000
https://dklbweb.dekalbga.org/voter/pdf/VOTERRESULTS.pdf
and you get very close to the summary of about 320,000 voters for DeKalb.
https://dklbweb.dekalbga.org/voter/pdf/VoteSummary.pdf
The only weird thing is that they are still talkin about in person/absentee as though it could have happened between oct 31st and the election - in which case, there would be some missing votes.
Nate - how many more national votes do you think there are to be added?
I'm pretty sure Nate built in some conversative bias into his model to keep Obama's chances down...
It can't be a coincidence that Nate's predicted lower on both the EV and pop votes...
Nate did a great job in general, but I think this is a fair criticism. Nate assumed that the felony conviction rendered all old information irrelevant and that assumption turned out to be wrong.
Indeed, in hindsight, it turned out to be wrong. But it was not bias, and it has no bearing on his credibility.
sorry, I mean EC not EV
PA John--
I gave you too much credit and you edit like a newspaperman!
the point is a ten point margin as in 55-45 is a landslide. No?
How about 50-40-10 in a three man race? At the very least it was a landslide repudiation of Carter.
McCain did damn well under the circumstances, not least of which he had much less access to positive free media and much less $$$ to buy paid media.
Both men can feel vindicated concerning the force of their personalities and apparent nature of their gifts.
There must be another 5 million votes at least to be counted. Unless huge numbers of Republican voters stayed at home. That would be the only explanation.
Funny that the only spin left for our right-wing bloggers today is their election of a convicted felon and the writing of discrimination into a state constitution.
Palin gives good interview with CNN's Dana Bash
I have some information for you 'thenoseknows': The California did not assign a special right, that's a lie. They did however rule that the California state constitution did nnot have man & woman written anywhere in it and correctly opined that discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation was not constitutional.
Furthermore 'nose', you are flawed in thinking that your religious definition of who should be married is what the state's definition should be. I've said this before. The chruch has no place in our government and the government has no place in your churches. I believe that despite being an atheist. The constituion protects you. It protects me too.
P.S. to the lying bigot asshole:
It removed a special right as decided by the supreme court.
Since everyone had the right to marry whomever they wanted, of any gender, there was nothing "special" about it.
Thank god Missouri is McCain's.
YES! NO MORE BELLWEATHER!
NO MORE BRADLEY EFFECT BS!
NO MORE PUMA EFFECT BS!
This election's highlights are destroying - logically - two divisive factors.
1) "Race" when electing intelligence and brillance - rejected outright by everyone.
We don't need to explain this. BTW.. did you notice the tears washing away the fears of the old days?
2) "common sense" over political and fashion statement (read: Prop 8)
Let us be clear first. I do not oppose anyone living with anyone.
But marriage to me (and now to most of the Cali) = Pro-creation. Biologically possible ONLY between a man and a woman. So the term "Marriage" MUST be reserved for their union.
The legal union between anyone else who wants to "live together" can be anything else, I do not oppose that. But (despite the torn Yes on 8 poster in my front yard) the verdict is clear - Marriage is NOT a term to be muddled with and it IS between a man and a woman.
Say it aint so (Real) Joe....You really are a bigot. This trully saddens me because you have been my favorite poster on this site. From here on out I will skip over your concise yet Poignant posts.
AP:
"Several Democrats also said Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was actively seeking appointment as secretary of State in the new administration."
John Kerry
LOL
Aarnav,
I look forward to you putting forward of a constitutional amendment preventing those over 60 from marrying. After all, they shouldn't be reproducing. And anyone that's infertile? They can't get married either. Right?
Is Nate really getting raked by some for thinking a felony CONVICTION was a game changer. Now obviously he should have looked at their choice in governors and realized that he wasn't dealing with people who took life all that seriously, but then doing that would have been biased.
The procreation argument is ridiculous on its face. I haven't ever heard one of you bigoted assholes propose that infertile or elderly couples be prevented from getting married.
"But it was not bias, and it has no bearing on his credibility."
Oh, of course not. Nate predicted essentially 86 things - 50 state elections for President, 1 election for President in DC, a national popular vote, and 35 Senate races (right?). He apparently got one egregiously wrong (Stevens in AK). That's really a quite good record.
"Palin gives good interview ..."
A little late, don't you think?
18-29 yos voted 66% O vs 32% M.
This means it's over for the GOP for decades to come (which we all knew anyway)!
A whole lot of experts were convinced the turnout would be about 10-15 million votes more than what has so far been reported. Read this:
http://www.local10.com/politics/17896989/detail.html
Pete, I'm just using your twisted logic. A larger majority chose of voters chose Obama than chose Reagan. A larger plurality of voters voted against Reagan than voted against Obama.
I'm just being as intellectually dishonest as you are to debunk your canard.
Richardson for Secretary of State.
About Prop 8... I am very disappointed as it is writing discrimination into the CA constitution. We, as Californians, should be ashamed: we are currently doing NOTHING to protect our supposed "progressive" label.
That said, mark my words, it WILL get repealed.
Funny I thought marriage was about love when I got married this year...
:/
6 Million Votes Missing
Georgia was definately rigged, Alaska was almost cetainly rigged. Alaskans are dumb, but nobody votes for an old pork fiend who was found guilty on seven counts. The polls were breaking heavily for Begich - polls he had been leading for months. I don't think Alaskan voters are smart enough to hide their intentions, and we would have heard something or the word would have gotten out from Palin and the Republicans.
Aarnav - Sorry, you're wrong. It's a civil rights issue, not a pro-creation issue. If it was, then EVERYONE who was married would have children. My parents didn't procreate, they chose to adopt me. Is their marriage less valid because of that?
Our issue is that the government has absolutely no right to discriminate who gets married legally. And to that end, if you are worried about the word marraige, why not take it out of our lawas altogether and make it a word that describes your union within the bounds of your family and faith. Then, EVERYONE could be issued civil unions and no one would have to be worried about being left out of the letter of the law. And I'm sorry for this blanket statement. Anyone who supported Proposition 8 and sought to make me a second class citizen or marginalize my relationship, is a bigot, plain and simple.
andy, for the 5th time, there are millions upon millions of votes yet to be tallied!
What I think is interesting is that the last three presidential campaigns have seen the Vietnam vet vanquished. Gore, Kerry and now McCain. Does this say any thing about the resonance of these events - as historical place markers - in the current cultural climate?
wv=zamfor Kenyan word for victory.
Alaska still has 50,000-70,000 absentee ballots to be counted, though it's hard to say whether they'll make a difference.
The reason overall turnout appears to be "down" at this point is that lots of absentee, overseas, and provisional ballots have not yet been counted.
Was that really seriously Real Joe's "surprise?" That god hates fags? weak.
As for it being a "special right," it seems to me that hetero marriage is already a pretty special right. Legal "marriage" should be abolished outright. Why should the government recognize what's essentially a religious matter? Civil establishments should only recognize civil unions.
And as for the procreation argument? What??? What is this, 1995? Are you Drudge's webmaster? Gonna go off on Murphy Brown next? Please.
Alaska was stolen for sure. There's just no way the polls were THAT wrong...
"Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast,"
LOOL
NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.
Full story:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581
In addition space squirrel, since the elcection has already been decided to a large degree, I think the elections officials have an added stake in getting the numbers right.
"Is Nate really getting raked by some for thinking a felony CONVICTION was a game changer. Now obviously he should have looked at their choice in governors and realized that he wasn't dealing with people who took life all that seriously, but then doing that would have been biased."
Actually, I thought his interim adjustment for the conviction - to downweight earlier polls based on how the conviction lowered Stevens' approval rating - was quite clever and, in retrospect, would have produced somewhat better results (although I'm sure it still would have predicted a likely, if not safe, Begich win).
Certainly, at the time, the argument that pre-conviction polling was dated and likely irrelevant seemed plausible. I just think it's fair to point out that this was actually one of the more obvious cases where Nate intervened and somewhat overrode "the model" and, in this case, that intervention appears to have been wrong in retrospect.
Certainly, it doesn't diminish my respect for the overall quality of Nate's work. If anything, going forward, it would seem to reinforce the idea that one is best served by letting the model speak as objectively as possible.
I don't understand how allowing two people of the same sex to be married, changes what anyone elses concept of marriage is---and why would anyone be threatened by it. I just don't get it. Setting pro-creation as the definer of marriage is a bit silly. My wife and I have been married for 35 years and have not pro-created (luckily were able to adopt a beautifu daughter)---should we not consider ourselves to be married?
"
Georgia was definately rigged, Alaska was almost cetainly rigged. Alaskans are dumb, but nobody votes for an old pork fiend.."
-----
Dude, you obviously know nothing about Alaskans. I've worked there and spent a lot of time there.
For as much as they talk about "socialism" and all that shit, Alaska is nothing more than a welfare state. Its what the citizens there want.
Russ, the Democrats just won seats in both Houses of Congress and are going to be dealing with a new President who seems to be by nature non-confrontational. No way are they going to throw out Pelosi or Reid now in favor of people to their left. Mark my words: President Obama will run the country from the left somewhat like Reagan ran it from the right, meeting cordially with everyone and cooperating on items of mutual interest, but not being a colorless centrist.
Here was my entry for the Kos election prediction competition:
Democratic Senate Seats: 55
Republican Senate Seats: 42
Democratic House Seats: 260
Republican House Seats: 175
Obama Electoral Votes: 291
McCain Electoral Votes: 247
Was that Real Joe's surprise vase? Its getting worse. And to think I look forward to his posts. Jo0e save yourself because i really want to like you!
Real Joe's surprise:
He really is Condoleza Rice and voter for Obama!
No wait.. she's gay... can't be that.
Furthermore 'nose', you are flawed in thinking that your religious definition of who should be married is what the state's definition should be. I've said this before. The chruch has no place in our government and the government has no place in your churches. I believe that despite being an atheist. The constituion protects you. It protects me too.
Prop 8 won and you're going to have to get over it. Not every person who voted for it is religious and I am not religious myself. Marriage being between a man and a woman is not just by religious definition but a common sense definition as biologically only a man and a woman can produce a baby which if you study the origins of marriage is what marriage is considered to be. The union of 2 people to produce new life. By the way I find it ironic that you guys are casting aspersions on the so called "bigots" which in this case are largely Obama-supporting African-Americans and Hispanics who carried Prop 8 to victory with more than 60% and more than 52% of their votes respectively. We couldn't have done it without them.
The Chattering Class
Bay Buchanan became my favorite commentator, number two may have been her brother Pat. Also Alex Castellanos. He wrote the dispositive analysis of Obama way back when [Obama as Nothing (Alex Castellanos in HuffPo: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-castellanos/the-molten-core-of-barack_b_116904.html)]
Gergen was the most infuriating. Him and George Will.
Camille Paglia writing bravely in Salon made the best defense of Sarah Palin as did another liberal writer in the London Times who observed famously about the touching reality of Plain's "great big messy family spreading out on the stage" after her debate with Biden. There were those who disagreed with Palin who were willing to recognize her humanity and the naturalness of her appeal. Something that all were supposed to accord Obama, but Palin needed to do something extra special to earn it.
It was so puzzling after how far we had come in terms of dismissing as distractions issues concerning family matters, gay boyfriends, radical associations, etc, that when Palin appeared it became fair game to suggest the most scurrilous, baseless things about her. sometimes just by reporting that the questions had been raised even tho there was no foundation.
The worst offenders were Rachel Madow, Andrew Sullivan and Filstro. It horrified me that people in the case of Sullivan and Filstro who were left wing, but reasonable and forthright in their views, were willing to not only spread filth but to delight in it. I was shaken to learn that they believed that the achievement of their favored candidate's political goals permitted them to raise the most baseless rumors to undermine the woman’s character and good name and to cast aspersions on her minor children.
These people will be forever haunted by this. just as Obama will be haunted by the rumors of his homosexuality and drug use, etc.
And so I would relegate the scandal mongers of the left as the Worst persons in the World because of their Sanctimony and hypocrisy.
Olbermann is spared b/c Ben Affleck has put him permanently in Purgatory!
"For as much as they talk about "socialism" and all that shit, Alaska is nothing more than a welfare state. Its what the citizens there want."
The problem for Alaskans though is, realistically, how much pork can Stevens possibly produce? He's a convicted felon and a member of the minority party in Congress. Surely he'll be the most marginalized member of the U.S. Senate if he actually returns in January, won't he?
sherwick:
I understand what you're saying, but the networks are saying 97% of precincts are in with 120 million votes. That would mean 100% = 124 million. Only 2 million more voters than 2004? I can't see how that's right:
http://tinurl.us/f64fab
Pa Joh makes a fair point 1980 was a landslide rejection of Jimmy Carter. he got only 40% of the vote.
@ Pete Kent
sorry about the delay but it is dinner time here.
But it is you who misapprehend me.
I didn't suggest you bog off because of your supposed homophobia but because you managed to combine in one mega-attention-seeking sentence genetic engineering, abortion, and homosexuality, three touchstone issues for the Christian right.
BTW for everyone else, if he was homophobic, he should bog off for that as well.
davy, what are you talking about? Seward, Lincoln's Secretary of State, bought Alaska from the Russians, not McKinley.
And Palin can appoint a replacement if Stevens gets kicked out of the Senate until the Special Election.
Milly:
Good observation -- The 60s are OVER!
Nose - your "common sense" defintion of marriage is CRAP. If it was all about having children, then only people who planned to 'pro-create' would be allowed to get married. Incedentally. Just because someone voted for the same President I did, doesn't mean that I would hesitate for a second to lump them in the same category I put you: A BIGOT. I don't care if you or anyone else don't come from a religious standpoint on this issue, discrimination is wrong no matter what.
"Anyone who supported Proposition 8 and sought to make me a second class citizen or marginalize my relationship, is a bigot, plain and simple." -Jeff NYC Dem
Come on, be a little open-minded. They could just be incredibly stupid.
The fact is the arguments against gay marriage don't hold up to close scrutiny. I've had the debate a hundred times in philosophy classes, debate teams, and between friends. The only true reason people are against gay marriage is they are selfish ("marriage is my word!"), they are bigots ("ew, gays"), or they don't understand the arguments at hand.
WV: polde, as in, the majority should not be "polde" for their opinions about the rights of a minority.
I understand what you're saying, but the networks are saying 97% of precincts are in with 120 million votes. That would mean 100% = 124 million. Only 2 million more voters than 2004? I can't see how that's right:
No, no, no, no.. You can extrapolate that 97% of precints equals a certain number. A precint can have a few hundred votes or several thousands votes.
Relax and take you tin foil hat off. Estimates are just that - estimates.
@ Andy JS
Not all precincts have the same population / number of voters. Ther may also be many absentee votes that some haven't gotten too yet. I think there may be 5-7 million more voters in the end, which is a pretty good increase.
Once again bradley jene, I thank you for backing me up!
For the schmucks who say "marriage is for procreation": Did you tell your daughters that the only way they can get pregnant is to get married first? What a lot of pathetic balderdash! Marriage is not for procreation, because it's patently obvious that people can have children without being married and be married without having children!
Marriage is a rite of passage, the point of which is to give social sanction - and more to the point in this country, _legal_ rights - to two people who express a (theoretically) life-long commitment to each other. Period.
I hope I live to see the day when a Muslim and an open homosexual can become President, because those two categories seem to be the last groups that it's apparently OK to be bigoted against in the U.S. today.
97% of precincts may have reported, but the population in the remaining 3% may be a lot and more importantly, absentee ballots may not be counted. Rest assured that the final tally will be over 130 million, probably 135m +.
Boulder-Liberal said...
"Georgia was definately rigged, Alaska was almost cetainly rigged. Alaskans are dumb, but nobody votes for an old pork fiend.."
Dude, you obviously know nothing about Alaskans. I've worked there and spent a lot of time there.
I like how you cut off the rest of my quote mentioning he was found guilty on seven counts. Dude.
BTW, I just like saying "old pork fiend". My main point was that he's a felon, and polls were breaking decisively for Mark Begich. Nate had it almost safe for the Dems. If a majority of Alaskans DID vote for Tubes Stevens, then they're the most despicable group of people residing the United States.
Blogger Vase said...
As for it being a "special right," it seems to me that hetero marriage is already a pretty special right. Legal "marriage" should be abolished outright. Why should the government recognize what's essentially a religious matter? Civil establishments should only recognize civil unions.
Yes, for god's sake let's get the government out of our personal lives and stop these arbitrary arguments about what constitutes a "real" marriage.
An Alaskan here, born and raised - living out-of-state. Voted there absentee, blue ticket.
I am APPALLED that Stevens might win. I am sick. On behalf of my state, I will be very, very sorry if he does. But that's Alaska for you - more than twice the size of Texas and only four localities with more than 10,000 people. Plenty of crazies in the woods and not a few in the cities. And boy we love our federal money. Also I don't know if you heard but the governor was on the red ticket; that might have helped. So it was always going to be close, conviction or not.
Reasons for hope? So far 210,000 votes counted. In 2004 there were over 310,000 votes total. This election has generated huge interest for all Alaskans as you might imagine, so I believe you can expect 315-325K votes total.
As of yesterday, according to Anchorage Daily News, 40K absentee have been received. Most of these would have been pre-conviction; the post-conviction and election-day absentee ballots will be coming in over the next week. From who? Big group 1: college students and graduated professionals. Big group 2 (but smaller): military. You can guess who favors who. I think it's pretty clear what needs to happen: a big turnout in the absentees from college grad Alaskans voting at home will push the Senate race out of Stevens' clutches. That's what has to happen. Odds? I'd say 2:1 against, just my gut. Sorry, USA.
Regarding what happens if Stevens does win, and then leaves (is forced out of) the Senate. As others have noted, the Murkowski debacle (in which he won the governorship and appointed his daughter to his vacated seat) led to a change in the law: there will be a special election. Who would run? My money is on a Palin v. Begich ass-kicking, and unfortunately it will not be Begich doing the kicking. There is a reason those of who can get the hell out, do get the hell out.
No, I don't still get the PFD check. Wish I did!
The craniums have exploded at Fox as I expected. Go read the comments on their threads, any threads. There are people genuinely concerned that the US has turned into Zimbabwe overnight, and that the Black Panthers will be raping and looting white farms across the country.
I know not all precincts have the same number of voters. But that still wouldn't explain where these missing votes have gone.
Bay Buchanan became my favorite commentator, number two may have been her brother Pat.
LOL
But Mrs B, you can't be opposed to complex thought?
"I didn't suggest you bog off because of your supposed homophobia but because you managed to combine in one mega-attention-seeking sentence genetic engineering, abortion, and homosexuality, three touchstone issues for the Christian right. "
It reminds me of that scene in the movie Amadeus when the Emperor of Austria sniffs, "Too many notes!" when he dismisses a Mozart composition.
"It horrified me that people in the case of Sullivan and Filstro who were left wing, but ....."
------
Andrew Sullivan is left wing? I think that would come as a surprise to him. Perhaps you should read his book: "The Conservative Soul: Fundamentalism, Freedom, and the Future of the Right"
Well said, Michael.
Well said.
The Problem is nate there was a 100% chance of the Begich winning the Senate seat in Alaska. A 100% chance. Its one thing had it beeen a 99% chance, bu this was a absolute 100% lock according to him, and his site.
You cann't be wrong when you have something as 100% safe. 100% means its impossible for Stevens to win. When you have something as 100% on a site like this you better be right or it will severely damange your credibility.
Anybody know what is up the turnout in Alaska? The had 308,000 votes cast in 2004, their population has been steadily increasing by about 1% each year, they had a native on a national ticket, and the senate race has been highly publicized. Yet, only 221,000 votes have been cast so far for the senate race with 99% reporting. It seems to me that there should be about 100,000 missing votes. That is almost a 1/3 of the expected votes missing!! What is up with this?
The answer is absentee ballots, and they will remove any doubt that Stevens was re-elected. Alaska is a Republican lock, even to the extent of sending a convicted criminal back to the Senate.
However, I do think the Senate will expel him, which will simply cause the state to pick another Republican. I wouldn't be surprised if it winds up being Sarah Palin.
When the media reports that 100% of the precincts are reporting, it does not necessarily mean that 100% of the votes are in. It depends if the precincts are reporting election day votes only vs. including absentee or early ballots and certainly do not include provisional ballots.
We will not know the final composition of the Senate until absentee and accepted provisioal ballots are counted in Alaska, Georgia counties report their absentee/early voting numbers (and probably we have another election there), Minnesota recounts, and Oregon (finally) counts all their votes.
And by the way, most of Oregon's votes were early, so calling the election for Obama on the east coast did not explain Smith's good numbers.
And if Nate had not thrown out Alaska's pre-conviction polls, wouldn't Begich still have had a substantial probability of winning it? It was a toss up with a slight Begich advantage before the conviction and the polls afterward were quite favoable to Begich.
Andy JS said...
I know not all precincts have the same number of voters. But that still wouldn't explain where these missing votes have gone.
Andy - the AP made the estimation within a few hours of polls opening.
For the last time Take tin foil hat off
My god we now have voter turnout concern trolls.
LOL Andrew Sullivan is a lot of things, but left-wing is not one of them.
He's left wing only if you define that as "even the slightest departure from right-wing orthodoxy."
His two favorite people are Reagan and Thatcher. Real radicals, those two.
dennis580...
You are awfully critical of Nate's model. If NC and MO go to McCain, then he will have been within 0.4 votes on the electoral college. It's statistical brilliance.
The Senate seats seem to be off a bit more, but I chalk that up to polling errors and relatively small data sets.
I hope I live to see the day when a Muslim and an open homosexual can become President, because those two categories seem to be the last groups that it's apparently OK to be bigoted against in the U.S. today.
It's much worse for atheists.
Did repubs in GA shred a bunch of early ballots? WTF. Can they not count in the South? I hope our democracy is intact. is Let me try. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6...
Major effort to shred the votes of real Americans underway in GA. That is more of a crime than in AK, where Repubs elect a common criminal.
Nate predicted Stevens would be defeated----well that changes everything
Amen JQB. I was readin Richard Dawkins, and surveys have been done, post-9/11 and atheists are the most feared class in thie country. I'm a gay atheist, which makes me that much worse.
Richardson for Secretary of State.
Because he can see Mexico from his house! :)
pa john, why is everyone who expresses concern a "concern troll"? Does anyone know what a troll is anymore? Maybe he's wearing a tin foil hat, but if he's sincere then he's not a troll.
@porridgegun
And my point was that Alaskans just want the pork and other welfare programs. Stevens was the King of Pork. Stevens could have been convicted of murder and 50% of Alaskans (give or take a few) would vote for him.
Its just the way it is up there.
Lets make this clear: Sex is for procreation. Marriage is for commitment.
Please don't get your hopes up on the Franken/Coleman recount. This isn't Florida; our election system is sterling and absolutely clean. In the past there have been recounts resulting in two dozen or so votes changing, but 600-700 changing is impossible.
While I'm disappointed in the results of the House/Senate races here in MN, they were all very close races. Coleman and Paulsen seem genuinely chastened, though who can tell what Coleman really thinks. Bachmann, however, who won narrowly in 2006 won only by 3 points this time and proceeded to go on the offensive.
Also, we should be aware that the Republicans will almost surely do to Obama what they did with Clinton immediately after he won: launch strident attacks on a symbolic social issue to show their "clout" and relevance. In Clinton's case, it was "gays in the military".
The idea is to squander as much political capital as possible for the incoming Administration on an issue that has no tangible benefit. It also serves to rally the remaining Republicans and stifle any kind of bipartisanship.
Anybody else catch PeteKent comparing his terrible Gattaca argument to a masterpiece by Mozart?
We need to stop feeding this guy, he can stroke his own ego, apparently.
P.S. I don't care if my children are gay or straight; if you do, then you meet the definition of a bigot. Grats!
So there was no Bradley Effect, but we've finally uncovered the "Stevens Effect" -- voters who tell pollsters that they will vote against corruption and pork, but secretly vote for it when it favors them!
Michael is right. Marriage is a rite of passage and something of an entitlement.
As a member of an organized religion that sanctifies marriages, I have come to believe that only sanctified marriages are legitimate unions. That is to say civil marriage while official is not sanctified and thus not in the Service of God.
Gay people would be better off convincing their Churches of their rights to be sanctified, than demanding it from the society as a whole.
The state of California is too big and diverse a forum to adjudicate gay rights. But maybe the United Methodist Church is not.
Just a thought, really.
dennis580, your claims don't become any less idiotic by repeating them word for word, even down to the spelling errors.
Batamm, I'd like to amend that a little: Sex is for pleasure, fertilization is for procreation and marriage is for commitment. :)
Pa john - -Who did you like among the pundits? What was wrong with Bay?
dennis580:
If I were you, I would ask Nate and Sean for a full refund.
Lets make this clear: Sex is for procreation.
Religious moron.
The Problem is nate there was a 100% chance of the Begich winning the Senate seat in Alaska. A 100% chance. Its one thing had it beeen a 99% chance, bu this was a absolute 100% lock according to him, and his site.
You're clueless.
The model is only as good as the data. Bad data = bad results.
Research 2000 had the most recent poll with Begich +22, Rasmussen had him +8, Hays had him +7. All showing dramatic movement away from Stevens. The model did what the numbers told it to.
Question Research 2000 and Rasmussen about their polls, Nate's model acted exactly as it should.
I don't know whether Nate's 100% call of Alaska is a big deal, but Daily Kos's pollster has some explaining to do - Begich with a 22% lead last week?
On the marriage issue
Hope you don't mind a foreigner saying something here, but I suspect one of the issues with prop 8 was the word 'marriage'. You appear to some of us funny Europeans to have a bit of a hang-up over the separation of church and state, and also rather a lot of slightly peculiar Christian denominations. As a result I would guess a lot of people think of marriage as some sort of Christian thing. They may be mixed up, but I don't think everybody who voted for prop 8 is a bigot. If it was put to people that lesbians and gays ought to have the same civil rights as straight people, which includes the right to, for example, have their partner automatically as their next of kin, pass pension rights on to them, etc. then I suspect enough people could have been peeled off the bigots' side to make the difference. Where it all seems to go wrong is when it gets mixed up with wedding ceremonies.
Just have to keep going on this one. Ignore the idiot who said this was the wrong time. It's always the wrong time for some people - whether it's votes for women or desegregation.
If Merkley wins Oregon, we'll have 57. If Begich wins Alaska, we'll have 58. If the recount favors Franken, we'll have 59. The run-off will determine if we get 60.
Our chances aren't looking too good...but at least we have 56 sealed up. (55 minus Lieberman)
I think the reason Merkley and Begich are losing is because of depressed turnout on the west coast, since they already knew Obama won. It sucks!
merkeley is guaranteed to win oregon, probably by >50,000 margin when the counting is finished.
and in any case the news of obama's win could not affect turnout there, because oregonian had already voted by mail (mail-only vote in oregon)
Petekent, you're missing the point. I don't believe in god. I don't need to be sanctified, nor do I feel I need to be in service of god. I want my commitment to my partner to be subject to the same legal protections and burdens as the my straight counter parts.
If you truly love the constitution , please stop intermingling religion and legal arguments.
Or, in other words, what pa john said right before me...
I can understand Rasmussen's 8% poll - it's still close enough. But 22%??? Something's seriuosly wrong there.
I can't believe Young won the Congressional seat in Alaska. Polls were WAY off on that one. What the hell happened?
2/3rds of Alaska's congressional representation will be in prison. Stay classy.
Bradley Jene:
I think you are mixing my metaphors.
***
Amadeus
But Mrs B, you can't be opposed to complex thought?
"I didn't suggest you bog off because of your supposed homophobia but because you managed to combine in one mega-attention-seeking sentence genetic engineering, abortion, and homosexuality, three touchstone issues for the Christian right. "
It reminds me of that scene in the movie Amadeus when the Emperor of Austria sniffs, "Too many notes!" when he dismisses a Mozart composition.
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