A quick little pre-Thanksgiving road map from the red clay state of Georgia, where on Tuesday we'll learn the identity of the 99th member of the Senate. Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent Republican, fell just short on Election Day of the 50% mark needed to avoid the runoff against Democratic opponent Jim Martin.
While the President-Elect is not expected to appear in person on Jim Martin's behalf, there's no doubt Barack Obama's organization is here in force. Organizers, who began showing up almost immediately after the election, are all over the state. Phone banks run by Obama organizers from other states are up and running.
On Saxby Chambliss' side, the big guns have all come down to campaign, including John McCain and Runoff Eve's guest Sarah Palin, who has visits planned in Augusta, Savannah, Macon and Atlanta. We'll be checking out the ground operation around the state for Chambliss, and we're optimistic that we'll get solid access.
As a quick note, I walked into the Gwinnett County Democratic field office less than an hour ago, and the vibe was eerily identical in terms of hustle and focus that we witnessed in Obama offices during our eight week cross country journey leading up to November 4. The concentration level was high enough, and the task level obviously significant enough that I walked in and took a self-guided tour and left without anyone noticing. (Part of that is not showing the hesitation of a volunteer, who would be pounced on and put to efficient use right away.)
Over the next few days, we'll be giving you a closer look at what the campaigns are doing, what we're seeing on the ground, and of course a Monday full o' Palin surrogacy. Opportunistic with our spit firing -- and maybe if you're good, America, Nate'll clarify where that impossibly great phrase came from as a holiday treat -- we'll be dispatching from the state over the final stretch, and hopefully have one or two surprises in store.
In the meantime, enjoy the mashed potatoes and the football.
11.26.2008
Georgia Runoff On Our Mind
by Sean Quinn @ 6:58 PM
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FIRST
Looks like we'll be getting an "On the Road" blog from Georgia?
Nice one, Nate.
p.s. nate, it's the WWW you're broadcasting on so addressing 'America' is a bit gay-wanker-ish.
p.p.s. i'm using the term 'nate' ironically, in case you Obama-riitards are confused.
Zapunar, I assume you are using the term "gay-wanker-ish" ironically, too, or are you just an overall obnoxious and offensive person?
^There's still trolls even after the landslide? Shouldn't you be preparing for 2012?
That was to zapunar...
ROLL TIDE! And, less enthusiastically (but more relevant to the post), Go Dawgs.
Hopefully when Palin shows up Saxby goes down in flames.
Destroying two candidates in one election cycle would be an impressive feat and would ensure we never hear from the brain dead pop tart again.
Thanks for stopping by!
- from all of us at the Gwinette County Democrats office
p.s. zapunar, Sean wrote this post, not Nate.
I honestly have no idea why they're sending Palin down there, but whatever.
wv: mogioni
I'm wondering when Palin will pose for Playboy.
My bad, I'm from out of state. It's spelled Gwinnett.
Thanks for the reminder, Sarah.
I cant believe that you were just in the office and no one here really noticed. I was a staffer with the Obama campaign in Indiana and came down to georgia to help, and we have people who are coming in from all over the country to help with this race.
I don't think Palin is playboy material -- she's better suited for a hot dog eating contest.
...enjoy the mashed potatoes and the football.
Or whatever it is that the Detroit Lions do.
Well I sure hope Martin wins! :) Although with the weaker African-American turnout so far, I seriously doubt it. Nate and Sean should have a contest with the GA Senate runoff. I guess a total turnout of 1,960,000 and a 55.5%-44.5% win for Chambliss.
i don't understand why Obama isn't making a trip to georgia for this one... it seems to me like it's close enough and important enough that he would take his transition on the road for a day.
but, then again, i haven't understood a lot of the choices he's made since the election...
I like Jim Martin - but I think this is going to be Chambliss by double digits.
phil
I think the fear is he'll have egg on his face if he campaigns hard for Martin and he loses.
I disagree with that assessment, but he may have political telling him that he'd lose the news cycle (at the very least) and he'd lose the public perception of a mandate ("if he's such a unifying, fresh new face in politics, why wasn't he able to bring change to Georgia?").
Again, I disagree with that assessment, but it might be what the people in his ear are telling him.
(wv - evindedly, as "Evinedly I have to post this comment twice in order to get it to stick.")
Georgia has a history of this before--in 1992 Wyche Fowler (D) lost a runoff relection (with turnout about 1/2 that of the presidential turnout) with the libertarian vote swinging towards Paul Coverdell (R), who won. There was every reason to think that Fowler would win re-election, especially since Clinton won Georgia in 1992.
Georgia has a stronger than average Libertarian party due to Neal Boortz, a popular talk radio announcer based in Atlanta, and Libertarian exploitataion of Georgia's runoff laws.
Typically, the Christian Coalition types come out to vote in runoffs and others can't be bothered. That appears to be happening here. African American turnout was 35% of the early vote in the presidential race, and is 23% of the early vote now. Polls do show support for Martin slipping among whites, but not enough to make a difference. Clinton campaigned here in the 1992 runoff and was wounded by Wyche Fowler's defeat, which began a series of misteps, like Zoe Baird, etc.
With African American turnout down so much, it is extremely unlikely that Obama will win. So he is not going to to waste his political capital.
Early voter turnout with one day left to report has been 345,000 votes cast. With one day left in the presidential election early voting turnout had been more than 1,800,000. The energy, sad to say, is just not there.
I actually interpret Obama's tepidity as an attempt to maintain a conciliatory, magnanimous image. If he starts swinging around his weight as Democratic president-elect to campaign for a Democratic Senate candidate within a month of being elected, he looks like a partisan who can't pull himself out of campaign mode. If he offers politely modest support to Martin - the radio ad, for example - who is probably going to lose anyway, he looks a lot more favorable to McCain voters seeking reconciliation.
Obviously, I meant to say Martin, not Obama will win. LOL
This is site of the official early vote tally. It does not reflect today's turnout, which was the last day of early voting. It also does not count mail-in absentee ballots that came in today, or will come in through Tuesday. http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08_runoff.htm
Thanks for stopping by, Nate. We're really working hard down here and hopefully it'll show in the results.
I don't really think Obama's worried about "egg on his face" if Martin loses, nor about seeming too partisan. Instead, I think he's not going to Georgia because the actual president is AWOL in the middle of an economic crisis; thus, for the president-elect to divert his attention from the economy to a Senate runoff might look like desertion under fire.
Much as I want to see Chambliss defeated (if not roasting in Hell), I think Obama's doing the right thing by staying "on task."
Uh, Trevor, that's Sean who stopped by.
"If he starts swinging around his weight as Democratic president-elect to campaign for a Democratic Senate candidate within a month of being elected, he looks like a partisan..."
That is what I am afraid is going to be a theme of his presidency.
He could end up so fearful of looking partisan that the republicans walk all over him and he gets nothing of value done.
you were here at the Gwinnett office? Wow, i need to take a break from calls.
It was? Damn. Well, thanks for stopping by, Sean.
My bad.
So glad you are on the ground in Georgia, Sean. Can't wait for more reports.
Obama is not campaigning because we are in the midst of a huge crises and Bush is the lamest of ducks. Obama and team are working very hard on the transition and on instilling confidence that the new administration will be ready to take immediate action. The transition is a huge task in the best of times.
@Bill Dauphin: You got it. Obama has his running the country face on because the official commander-in-chief is mentally AWOL.
wv: scles (the scles are out of blance)
Sure would like to see Martin win. Hope all the energentic Obama workers can make this happen!
Finally, after a few days of delay, my absentee ballot mail-in came in -- filled it in and sent it.
Make sure you vote for Sara Doyle (GA Court of Appeals) as the other guy (Mike Sheffield) is a partisan hack with certain agenda -- Christian Coalition nutjobs to be exact. Mike is one of those "single-issue" candidates who identifies himself as a crusader of anti-abortion, anti-homosexual, mandatory prayer at school, along with other religious-driven philosophies. This guy is literally steaming his campaign engine on a grease on wheel of quarter million Christian Coalition distributions. Aside from expertise in legal community, Sara is someone who is truly an independent while Mike has been flirting with far right for too long.
With all that is going on in the Economy, can you imagine the reaction if Obama took "time off" to go down to GA to campaign for a Senate race (yes, I know he is not the Pres yet, that's why I used the quotes)? Obama is no longer a candidate. He is the President-elect and he has his hands full right now dealing with the mess that Bush is leaving him with.
Barack has made the decision that focusing on the transition and working on a plan to get the economy going is more important than campaigning for one Senate hopeful. And let's face it, Martin has an uphill battle on his hands. As many people said above, Obama doesn't want to start his Presidency 6 weeks after he was unable to "win" the Senate seat for the Dems in GA. It would take all of the wind out of his sails.
We need to understand that at this point, as bad as it sounds, Obama has much bigger fish to fry. That's why he isn't spending valuable time campaigning in GA. And to be honest, in the "big picture" analysis, he doesn't have a whole lot to gain by going to GA. Sure, we'd all love to send Chambliss packing, but that's not the point anymore.
It is amazing that we've seen three press conferences from Obama in three days on what he is doing in the face of this economic crisis, yet we haven't heard ANYTHING from the guy who is still the POTUS! I think Obama has had more press conferences in the last two weeks (and he isn't even POTUS yet) than Bush has had in the last 4 years.
Why hasn't anyone in the media done any "investigating" to see where our "leader" is in this time of crisis and what the hell is he doing all day. I mean, can't one of those bobble heads just ask the question? Or are they afraid of losing their place in the spotlight in front of the camera?
The silliness merely intensifies. I predicted yesterday that total challenges will exceed 10,000--as of today we're not far from 6,000.
By the way, your sign-in form requires that I create the same Google account every time I log in. Your form manages to forget my username and password every twelve hours or so. Oddly, the username and password fields fill themselves in, but your system says "incorrect password" when I try to post and I have to recreate the same Google account from scratch.
Is this deliberate, to keep down the number of posts? It's pretty irritating.
PeixeGato said "...Why hasn't anyone in the media done any "investigating" to see where our "leader" is in this time of crisis and what the hell is he doing all day."
The President's schedule is published. Today he had exactly one item on it: the turkey pardon; he managed not to Palin it, but he did reschedule it, in order not to conflict with Obama's press conference.
Pragmatus: I usually have to recreate the Google Blogger every time too, in fact I have to do it twice or three times. Today, for some reason, it remembers me.
"scogi": a scuzzy stogie?
Pragmatus - I've never had that problem on this site. I suspect it's either your Google account settings or your browser/cookie settings at fault - check both.
Looking forward to your features, Sean - will be interesting to read about the GA Republican efforts, and how they're getting their heads around campaigning for a man McCain once called 'reprehensible' and 'beyond disgusting'. If Martin wins it'll be a hella upset, though...
yay, sean! i've missed your reports from the road, and am glad that we get to see a few again thanks to the GA runoff. (though frankly, i could do without any tales whatsoever from sarah the turkey.) is brett there with you?
Thank you for high quality analysis and coverage of both MN-Sen and GA-Sen! I try to read all over, but you have the best quality analysis. Do you guys have anything on LA-04 or LA-02?
In LA-04 it’s a clear cut choice of republican vs democrat. In LA-02 I root for the Green Party candidate. He probably doesn’t have a chance, since Karen Carter couldn’t take him in 2006. But Dollar Bill Jefferson is a shame to our party and needs to go down.
Sean, welcome to Gwinnett County! I live only a few miles from said field office, and also from the arena where Palin will be appearing on Monday, though I'm going to do my best to be far far away when that happens.
I'd like to remind some of the other posters that those African-American early voters in the general election here in Georgia waited in lines of 3, 5, or up to 7 hrs, in hopes of avoiding even worse lines on election day... only to hear that, come election day, most polling places had little to no wait time once the morning and lunchtime rushes were past.
In short, some of the motivation to vote early for the general election was to avoid the lines... since that actually backfired, and since long lines are not expected on Dec. 2, many folks who are 100% committed to voting in the runoff are simply waiting until election day. I have personally spoken with such voters myself! They are certainly not in the same "celebratory" mood that they were in before the general election, but they still WILL vote.
Runoffs are really different from regular elections... early voting stats from the general cannot be relied on to predict the runoff.
James Oglethorpe received the deed to land for England's worst prisoners. He named the land in the American Colonies after George Hanover, King of England.
Georgia's predictable progeny have never disappointed....from Confederacy to Jim Crow in Spades to "Southern Republican."
Prison cons still work on these "cons - double entendre" and they dismiss Max Cleland, a three Nam amputee and war hero, for Congressman Saxby Chambliss, a draft dodging chickenhawk .
Now, they want to give him a second term, and unless the spawn of Oglethorpe's "guest colonists in chains" and their subsequent slaves do not vote for Martin....it will be Saxby Redux for SIX YEARS.
I fear that Coleman the Neocon will prevail in MN.
It will end up 58 short two and those Maine RINO's will cost us plenty.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚,無業績壓力,無脫秀無喝酒壓力,高層次會員制客源,工作輕鬆,可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已,對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有!艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪,不需擔心!只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
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