I generally try not to go too far off-topic, but ... well, it's Friday, and I figured this might be of interest to you.
Below I have listed a series of prominent, politically-oriented websites, and compared them on their ability to retain traffic in the post-election environment. The way that I have calculated this is to take the 1-week average daily reach number from Alexa.com (representing post-election traffic) and divided it into the 3-month average daily reach number for the same site (representing -- principally -- pre-election traffic from the convention period onward, the juicy part of the four-year election cycle). For instance, Slate.com has reached 598 out of every 1 million global internet users on an average day in the past week, as compared with 892 on an average day over the past three months, for a retention percentage of 67 percent.
TheAtlantic.com 125%Any number of caveats apply -- including that Alexa.com estimates are usually pretty blunt insturments(although they're a little bit better for relatively large sites like these). But you see the sites running along something of a spectrum from campaign-specific to general political (and sometimes cultural) interest.
DrudgeReport.com 124%
HuffingtonPost.com 109%
NYTimes.com 97%
WashingtonPost.com 82%
FOXNews.com 78%
TalkingPointsMemo.com 71%
DailyKos.com 68%
Slate.com 67%
RedState.com 66%
NationalReview.com 63%
FiveThirtyEight.com 59%
Politico.com 55%
Pollster.com 37%
BarackObama.com 37%
Electoral-Vote.com 30%
RealClearPolitics.com 25%
RasmussenReports.com 15%
Gallup.com 12%
JohnMcCain.com 9%
Our retention percentage is 59 percent, which I'm actually very, very pleased with. Thank you for visiting us during the run-up to the election and thank you for continuing to visit us now. I haven't done one of those "what's next for FiveThirtyEight" posts yet, but I will do so soon; rest assured that we are in this for the long haul.
89 comments
Congrats! That rocks.
I think most web analysts would recommend compete.com or quantcast.com over Alexa. All web metrics systems have their problems, including comScore and Nielsen//NetRaings, but Alexa's are particularly egregious.
I look forward to seeing what is next. My personal suggestion is adding some discussion forums - right now these threads tend to be full of OT posts, which often make interesting reads, but would fit better in a regular discussion forum.
I have a pretty good take on the Obama Site because it is how I promote my own blog. Oddly after an almost McCain-like drop following the election, the traffic from the site is up considerably. I think in this case it's a matter of how things shake down and where the Obama Movement eventually lands.
Your site is interesting, but once everything is settled (Senate, House, etc) I'm really not sure why to come here.
If you can keep it interesting despite that, and not have too strong of a one-sided tilt, however, you might just keep me and your other readers for the long haul.
quantcast.com and compete.com are lagging in their timeframe -- do not yet show November comparisons.
i think 59% is GREAT NEWS... (etc.)
no, seriously. judging by the way the comment threads had thinned out (and i'm guilty on that count as well), i'd feared it might have been much higher. great show guys - nothing like insightful, *intelligent* analyses to keep people hooked. talk about a point of differentiation!
wv: prink. can we say nebraska is now prink?
I love that Real Clear Politics is down to 25%. Just goes to show that everyone went there exclusively for the polls, and not for their "fair and balanced" sample of right-wing leaning news stories.
Yay! I want 538 to stay around a lot longer... and I don't mind any amount of lean. Even if there are only opportunities for election analysis every two years, there will be plenty to talk about in between.
I'm with ya for the long haul, Nate.
Question: what exactly does 59% mean? That 59% of the people who were visiting before Nov 4 are still visiting? Or could it mean that 100% of the people who were visiting are still visiting, but only 59% as often (which would describe me)? Or some mix? Or impossible to say?
Anyway, thanks for keeping going.
The 59% are the best number for any poll-related page. So it's really a good number. Funny that Drudge and The Atlantic have improved their hits. I guess some of their readers were turned off by the excessive campaign coverage and the obvious lopsidedness of Drudge (Anti-Obama) and Sullivan (Anti-Palin).
For me it is the quality of your posts, Nate. Everyone one excellent. Original, insightful, articulate. Is it that UChicago education?
I'm wondering if those count the RSS feed people? I was coming to the actual site A LOT before, and now I stick to my RSS, since there are no updated graphics for me to see. Just Curious.
Just keep that T shirt chick ad running, Nate. Much of your retention is obviously into water conservation....
In seriousness, looking forward to the long haul....
Score one more for the pinheads.
wv ovistfl - My favorite Clint Eastwood movie is "Ovistfl of Dollars"
Yeah. Alexa is fun and everything, but their numbers are extraordinarily bad. I run a site that gets near a hundred million pageviews a month, and we know from our own stats that readership by every measure has been either slowly increasing or holding steady, with relatively little variation, over the past year or so. But if you look at Alexa, you see huge trends and swings, climbing for months, then plummeting for months.
It's really bad data.
One reason HuffingtonPost and DrudgeReport might have gained is that they're both quite politically biased, and that some readers might prefer to go elsewhere to find more reliable election coverage, while they like them enough to come back after the election is over. TheAtlantic is less blatantly biased (although Sullivan is very anti-Palin, as any intellectual would be) so it may have gained more as a result of Sullivan's coverage of the gay movement.
59% is great news, especially compared with rcp... 538 went from 1/5 of the rating of rcp before the election to 1/2 after. I feel like nate could steal some of their thunder next time around by having intrade odds too, and maybe comparing those to his odds (this was pretty much the only worthwhile feature on rcp).
I hope the 59% holds up once the Minnesota and Georgia races are done with, its a long way until 2010.
For you own site, can't you just use banner ad impressions or server logs to determine your dropoff percentage?
I just wrote a long post, including expressing a preference for a) a discussion forum alongside facts and figures and b) moving away from blogger.
Irony of ironies - conflicting posts, lost the message!
*
This is GREAT news for McCain!!!!
Gosh, Nate, I'd expect you to take several web-site traffic rating sites, and weight, aggregate and average them. ;-)
The Washington Post has a related article on TV ratings for broadcast and cable news, which you may find interesting. I get 538 via RSS feed and read most articles, but am not as obsessive as I used to be, so the decline in traffic is a healthy sign, on my end!
Link to WaPo article
Great! And thanks again, Nate, for being just this wonderful source of sanity during the elections.
Nate, when you gonna start giving us advance notice of your tv appearances?
While I've never posted a comment here before, I've been an avid reader of the site for many months. I also plan to continue to read.
One question/point I wanted to bring up though was whether or not Alexa captures people who read via RSS feed and don't always click through. For example, work has gotten extremely busy for me lately, so I'm relying more on my RSS feeds to keep up with the headlines and rarely click through. I know many digital-oriented folks who do the same. It's possible your retention is even higher than you think.. :-)
Hey Nate,
Zogby admits the push poll for How Obama Got Elected was not his finest hour....
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/20/zogby-takes-a-pass-on-mccain-poll/
Great news, Nate. I'm still here every day, but fewer times per day (my anxiety has subsided a bit since election day). I'd love to hear your take on cabinet appointments. And please DO lean. I'm so tired of the right whining about so-called liberal media while Fox blatantly promotes the far right. You'd think they'd be able to find that channel and feel all warm and cozy with their friends. Meanwhile, this refuge of "elite liberals" is a sanctuary for me. Congrats on your accomplishments thus far. Looking forward to seeing where your career takes you. Big ups, Nate!!
you're welcome!
We'll always have polls, Nate....favorability, which tie Obama should wear...maybe you'll find yourself going off topic more often in the election wake. In the meantime, flowers to Begich and Franken?
In my humble opinion the reason why I and so many others cannot break their fivethirtyeight addiction is the analysis. It is so refreshing to have serious questions asked, and then explore possible answers or explanations based upon serious analysis.
Kind of like a "Freakanomics" approach to the political world
Its like when you cut your hair, but still try to put it up.
This tab is always open...
I would love for you to finish the rest of your 2010 Senate outlook. You did the safe ones first, leaving us in suspense! If you are taking suggestions, I think it would be cool if you continued doing the Senate projections and started doing Governor projections, since there are so many in 2010, and a lot of them are open seats where a member of one party is governor of a state that votes to the extreme for the other party (RI, WY, OK, HI, TN). Creating a model for the House would be fascinating, but a daunting task, and there's probably not enough polling at the CD level to make the model very accurate. Still, it would be cool if you could find a way to make it work.
Good data analysis is hard to find!
I wonder if some of the obama.com traffic is now going to change.gov
I think I became aroused when Nate said he was in this for the long haul.
WV - Tinge. Coincidence? I think not.
I am in this for the long haul, too.
Great site, great perspective, and great intelligence.
Sites like this and TPM are the breath of fresh air on what is generally a pretty trashy medium.
Wow, been reading here for months and this is my first comment. I just want you to encourage you to keep at it. I enjoy coming to the site because you always get me thinking! As someone who doesn't have nearly enough statistical analysis in her life, this site has totally filled a need for me :) Thank you!
Nate,
I will always come back - I learn stuff here.
You can be my professor anytime.
Thanks!
I actually didn't expect to stay, or keep checking the site so avidly. But it turns out, you guys are still interesting, relevant, and can make waves (as with Ziegler). I think you're on your way to becoming a staple of political journalism.
Retention is all about the richness of the content. I have not visited RealClearPolitics since election day because all I went to them for was their polling tables. The Atlantic I never visited until about 6 weeks before the election and now I'm hooked on their writers' daily posts. I also am hooked on Taegan Goddards's blog and TalkingPointsMemeo because of how they cover the transition period in Washington. But there will always be a place for fivethirtyeight.com!
Just be sure that you are on a different blogging platform before the next election so that you don't run into those problems again!
Great work on keeping the numbers up. I know I'm looking at way less than 50 percent of the blogs that I looked at before the election.
Nate, I'd be interested in a continuing analytic of polling that exists "under the radar" for most of us - your view, analysis, and awareness raising of issues being tracked, particularly those issues that are likely to figure in upcoming elections and public policy making. For example, I would be interested in polling taking place right now that may be driving decision-making relative to the auto-industry bailout.
I think the suggestion for forums is strong - a place for your people to process and vent.
For your work, my hope is that you'll continue to track, vet, and synthesize the polling that underlies much of the national decision-making and do your part to (re)present that work to your readers.
Thanks for the election-time work, and I'll add my congratulations to the many others you've received for the post-election season success you are having.
Don't lose us! -mg
Does that include hits from things like Google Reader? I hardly ever check the website itself anymore, since I don't need to look at the pretty pictures.
I'm still waiting for the 538 porn site.
Before the election, you argued that your model was designed to improve prediction over simple averages (like pollster.com). So, I'm dying to know how this panned out! How was your "alpha"? Where did the model outperform averages? Where did it underperform?
More charts and graphs please!!
-a big fan
Hey Nate,
Huckabee was in Iowa a couple days ago, and Bobby Jindal is here tonight. I think we know where 538 is going. Let's see some 2012 projections!
+1 re: RSS & Google Reader.
You owe a big debt to Minnesotans for continuing to generate Nov. 4 election information to analyze. And after that it will be to the GA election.
Luckily for us, we do not have a round the calendar election cycle ... we'll have a two or three weeks off after the GA election until the start of the campaign season for the mid-terms in 2010.
Alexa numbers are notoriously bad, because they are self-selected -- you have to install the Alexa toolbar. It tends to skew towards less savvy users.
Compete.com has much more accurate numbers, because they get their data directly from the ISP's, and other more reliable sources.
Just wanted to note (if it hasn't been noted above already - sorry I didn't have time to read through all the comments), that this probably does not take into account people who subscribe to the RSS feed, like myself. I still read everything you post, but I rarely visit the site anymore now that the pie-charts aren't changing too much. Keep up the great work and analysis guys.
Long haul, also. With the economy and other earth-shattering issues coming up, there will lots of issues and data to analyze, and I look forward to Nate and Sean's insights.
Thanks for saving my sanity during the election. Obama might have done it without you, but I'm pretty sure I could not have.
Nate,
I'm glad you are in this for "the long haul". You've brought a completely new viewpoint to politics, and it's fascinating. I'm convinced there's a movie in here somewhere. It's like a new chapter in the American drama. It's like being a Dodgers fan in '58.
It's exciting, mysterious, and something to be proud of.
Nate,
I'm glad you are in this for "the long haul". You've brought a completely new viewpoint to politics, and it's fascinating. I'm convinced there's a movie in here somewhere. It's like a new chapter in the American drama. It's like being a Dodgers fan in '58.
It's exciting, mysterious, and something to be proud of.
Where's Wonkette on the list? That's where I get all my political information...
You make returning worth it, Nate.
And with recognition like this...
http://jezebel.com/5093450/the-10-sexiest-everyday-men-of-2008
the future may be...toasty?!?
Congratulations on the staying power.
I've been very impressed with the coverage you have been able to provide in the post-election cycle. I have to admit, I was concerned about what would happen to this site after the election, as I didn't really see what direction you had to go in, but you have definately earned a permanent place on my Google Reader list. I'll be reading you all the way up to '12.
You're bleeding readers every second you don't. What is the point of this site now? I know I haven't been here for days.
Thanks for the Jezebel ref:
"nerd hottie extraordinaire" is really fun!
This appears to be by far the highest rating for a site without a broad news spectrum.
Redstate got mentioned in Newsweek this week, which is where I originally found fivethirtyeight.
bushensc (bush not in SC)
Posting Nate's appearances would be weird, as he's everywhere these days. A couple of days ago I ran across him quoted in at least a half dozen places. He's certainly bucking the economy!
Off topic: anyone got recent number from Minnesota?
I forgot: weird that barackobama is still getting so much traffic, as it's out of date and has been largely replaced with
www.change.gov
so it's mostly the place to go to make donations. It also provides the survey if you're not on the email list.
Also, I love this site because of the "liberal bias" and analysis, and also because the reader posts often take me to truly breaking news and unusual perspectives.
but barackobama.com is getting 4 times the traffic of JohnMcCain.com.
Has anyone done any analysis of whether left leaning or right leaning or neutral sites have held up better?
Mrs B
This is not intended to be an answer about "analysis" but you can get a rough idea:
Drudge, Fox News, RedState, National Review, RealClearPolitics, and I think a couple of the bottom ones (as well as McCain) are right leaning. Appears if you put like next to like in general right leaning are behind but not hugely.
There's the little matter of "how" left or right too ...
So he's 'very, very pleased' about this. Nate, this site is a drug and you're just enabling us all, you know? I love it, I can't wait for that What Next post!
next question:
any correlation between maintenance of traffic and how long the sites had been established beforehand?
BTW when is the analysis of the rest of the senate races coming out?
Hey, maybe you're the once who caused all these recounts just to keep the traffic high!
I remember thinking the evening of Nov 4, "Well, now I won't be compulsively check 538 all day."
Didn't quite work out that way.
this site has been the best find for the 2008 elections. i thought i'd stop obsessively refreshing it now that most of it is over, but it seems i was wrong. :)
i am bound to lose interest once all the races are decided; whether i keep coming depends on what your plan for the site will be.
in any case, thank you so much for your insightful analysis. i'll be buying your books.
wv: facti, which is clearly pseudo-latin for facts.
Out of curiosity... does RSS traffic get reported? I browse your blog (and all other blogs) via RSS feed (via Google Reader). If a blog doesn't have an RSS feed, and preferably an RSS feed that includes proper formatting and images, then I won't read it anymore.
Dear Mr. Silver,
Thank you! I too will be with this site for the long haul!
Isn't this better than baseball-
I mean really-this is good and important work.
All hail good data analysis!!!
WHAT'S NEXT?
How about what's now? What are the chances of a 60 seat majority now that Alaska is settled?
It is hard to see what is next when the site depends so heavily on polling. What polls are being done once the music stops on the current round of musical chairs?
I certainly love the quality of the predictions, but what is left to predict, exactly? The stock market? Home prices? GDP?
I guess as far as analysis is concerned, I would be interested in some non-governmental objective analysis of legislative proposals and bills. How much does Obama's tax plan really save us, what are the domino effects? What does it mean, exactly, to invest $15B in clean energy? Is that a decent amount, or pocket change?
I hear all the time about how the deficit is killing us. Is it really? I can't identify a single thing about how more or less deficit changes my life.
I like your analysis skills, Nate. I imagine there is a long list of political platitudes and empty warnings that would make for interesting reading, if you relate them to actual demographics, states, and dollars in pockets.
Other than that, I don't see what material you have to work with. But I am prepared to be surprised!
Happy happy joy joy. You rock Nate and it will be great to see what you have for us next.
WV sorories - drunken apologies
I think it is fine if you wander off into topics that aren't solely political numbers crunching. At first, I came for the numbers. And I am not a numbers person, not at all....
I've been reading this site at least daily for a couple months now(wish I had found it sooner) and thought I would move on after the election...instead I still check daily and learn something each time. I appreciate the level of discussion here, except for those self-centered blowhards that bore the shit out of me...I look forward to whatever this site progresses or evolves into...
On baseball: Huge Red Sox fan that was relieved the Sox didn't make it to the World Series this year since concentrating on that was interferring with my election obsession! Gladly gave up a Workd Series trophy to get Obama!!
Thanks for all your hard work.
Yeah this site is crazy... I see that I wasn't the only one that thought "I won't be coming here much after Nov. 4". On Nov. 5, I figured that I would only come here for a few more days as the election fever died down. Now, it's the 20th, and I'm *still* here!
I have a question for folks: Did anyone else feel "deflated" after the election? Beforehand, election day couldn't get here fast enough. Afterward, I find myself looking back in nostalgia at the "good ol' days" during the excitement and hubbub. I have to remind myself that during the last week of the election cycle, I was ready to rip my hair out as I was so nervous about the outcome.
Ah well, now I know what the rose-colored-glasses effect feels like. I'll take it. =)
wv (demantsp): The kidnappers did everything they could to persuade him but Sylvester the cat would not give in to their demantsp.
Hey Nate, your blogging rocks, I really love it. I'm looking forward to seeing how you "re-invent" it (if that's what you're doing) for the post-election environment. But I sure do hope you keep it up. It was so cathartic to read "Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism?" - it explained perfectly why I've always found it so difficult to have a rational conversation with cocooned right wingers, and I've e-mailed it to all my friends and family. So congrats, and keep up the good work!
The Compete velocity graphs are pretty telling:
Salon / Slate / 538
Obama / McCain / 538
I also think that it's impressive and a tribute to the writing that a website that mentions the Electoral College in its URL could keep such a large audience in the post-election season.
Thanks Nate!!!
And Sean and all!!!
Out of these three boutique political sites, only 538 has lost the majority of its audience since the election:
Salon / Slate / 538 "attention" share, last 30 days
I need my daily dose of numbers. What can I say? No other site has such high information content. mmm... information.
Well you've continued writing insightful stuff and so it's not surprising you've retained readers. 59% is really impressive for an electoral projection (rather than purely political).
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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