We deleted the Omaha thread because the Secretary of State hadn't finished updating the pdf. My bad. Neither Obama nor McCain has won Nebraska's 2d district. It's extremely close.
Al Franken has pulled ahead in Minnesota.
Some very weird things are going on in Georgia, as the total vote is much, much lower than expected. Some speculation has the early vote not being counted, which would strongly suggest that Saxby Chambliss will have to face a runoff in four weeks.
If Franken holds on, if Jeff Merkley in Oregon can win (Multnomah is the big Portland Democratic engine and is largely outstanding), then it is increasingly likely that the Dems will converge on Georgia for the next four weeks to try to win the 60th Senate seat.
11.05.2008
Franken Pulls Ahead; Georgia Is Screwy; Omaha Call Premature
@ 3:11 AM
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205 comments
Told ya! =P
Keep us posted...
If by "speculation" you mean "information confirmed by the spokesman for the Secretary of State", then yes, you are correct.
8 hours ago I just wanted 270, now I'm hoping for 370...
From an Omahan whose mother lost her phone today as she ran from door to door getting out the vote, let's see that second district go blue!
Insult to injury.
Wait, I know only some of the votes are counted, but it looks to me Stevens is currently ahead in AK to hold on to his Senate seat. I guess this could change as more of the vote comes in, but there's no reason it should be as close as it is now.
The freeptards are turning on Bush now.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2125610/posts
It is going to get ugly for the lunatic fringe in the next few months and that is saying a lot.
What is going on in Alaska?
Stevens is up by a large margin...
Are they really going to elect a felon? Or are those the absentees from rural areas that are counted first?
How long does it take the news to arrive on a moose?
Heard from a few friends that GA would be stolen...guess it's NOT a conspiracy theory after all! Any closure on IN???
~Special advocate for the Trees
Henry, it's Alaska.. What do you expect?
What we don't need to hear is that the Republicans are trying to steal GA. First of all, if they were going to steal a state, they would most certainly pick a big Kerry one... wasn't everyone kind of fearful of PA shenanigans?
Just call this my pre-emptive strike against the irrational left wing. Now that we've won, we really need to try and keep our own wingnuts in check so we don't turn into the cronyistic nepotistic shortsighted folks we replaced.
What's the recount threshold in MN? Even if Duluth/St Louis stretches Franken's advantage, you have to assume that there are absentee returns, and that the margin is going to be four-digit.
It's a squeaker. GA, on the other hand, is just bizarro.
haha, if Alaska reelects Ted Stevens, I say we let them secede.
Though, honestly, what's taking them so long to count the votes? Aren't there about ten people in Alaska?
Any idea where are the Franken numbers coming from?
I'm bouncing on the MN Sec of State site, and Al is still down. ...
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=%27%27
up to 2 million early votes not counted.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
Given the incrdibly high turnout expected in Fulton county and it's expected overwhelming democratic slant, I wouldn't be surprised to see GA end up going for Obama and Martin win outright..
Both Oregon and Alaska are proving to be much closer than expected...
Merkley Projected Winner In U.S. Senate Race
http://www.kptv.com/politics/17895480/detail.html#-
Forget a runoff...The early vote in Ga is ginormous. If it isn't being counted, there's a 99.999% chance that Martin (and probably Obama) won Georgia outright.
The Minnesota race will probably be a recount. The major newspapers have gone to press with that as their story.
..er a different William...
It's not all hopeful:
Proposition 8 Same-Sex Marriage Ban
Choice Votes %
Yes 3,302,827 52.5%
No 2,983,306 47.5%
What are Martin's chances in a runoff? I would think that most of the Libertarian voters would vote Republican, putting Chambliss up about 7 points among this sample - how do things change when you include early voters?
CNN's numbers are running ahead of the MN SoS's, which haven't been updated for a while.
@ Mark, CNN shows Frankin up but around 900 votes.
Franken 1,158,271 42%
Coleman 1,157,326 42%
Word Verification: counbust
I's counbust j00 in da mouth!
Dang, could we actually get to 60 in the Senate? What happens if the convicted felon wins? Can Stevens still hold office?
Oh, and thanks again to Nate and Sean for a fantastic site! You guys are da bomb. Can't wait to see what hilarious hijinx y'all get up to next.
No matter who "wins" MN is certain to head to a recount. Yummy.
I'm told that St. Louis county (Duluth) is providing Al's late lead. The St. Louis County auditor's website just goes to the SoS though.
Hennepin County (Mpls. + suburbs) still has 25 precincts to report.
Unfortunately, prop 8 and 4 will be passed in California. It's winning, orange county and LA County votes haven't been fully counted yet. San Francisco already has been.
Holy crap I think it's finally sinking in. Did we just do what I think we did?
Did we just take our country back?
Can we finally end the bullshit and get something done?
Si se puede.
If you want a big smile, click here
Ride a moose up the AlCan, eh?
Take off to the Great White North...
Sounds like they might report the tally via dogsled.
But seriously, folks. Colbert and Stewart were hilarious.
Sean, GA Girl - I'd love to see a link on those shenanigans in GA. The early vote was 60% of the total 2004 vote. It was over 2 million. If all that has somehow gone astray... Or has it just been left at the bottom of the pile for counting? Because if it really is still there, waiting to be added to the count, Obama has won Georgia, surely?
Trust me as far as you can throw me, but Stevens is allowed to serve if elected. The question then becomes, will the Senate expel him, as is their right?
If Stevens wins Bush will pardon him on January 19th. End of story.
Hennepin County is trickling in, but I guess it doesn't matter if it goes to runoff.
Thank you for bringing up Georgia! I'm worried somethings up with my vote. At my party, the numbers just seemed too screwy with the 1.9 million early votes.
Apparently the Georgia race ain't over. Over 600,000 early votes from heavily Democratic areas around Atlanta could theoretically flip the state to Obama:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/5/31224/2461/107/653834
Easy on the Alaskan comments - we helped rid the rest of the country of Palin... We are not all crazy Republicans up here...:)
Stevens is an era and a dynasty up here, we are one of the reddest states in the country (sadly). That is what you see in the results. The polls calling it for Stevens were too optimistic, I never believed them, especially the 22% Begich.
It will be a long night, I suspect Stevens may eak this out unfortunately...
Sean, you are a fool. Admit it!
There will be no runoff in MN. Plurality takes all.
Stevens up in Alaska, any thoughts Sean? Is it gonna flip?
Just John,
It sounds like Mitch McConnell was pretty clear that there is no way in hell that he will allow Stevens to sit in the Senate even if he wins. I guess narrowly winning his own reelection has caused the minority leader to understand that corruption is bad for business.
That's probably a fair point to bring up re: MN, too. Whether or not they're just campaign stunts, there are some newly leveled fairly serious allegations levied against Coleman in TX and DE courts...
Just John, did you miss the news about the thousands of voter registrations that SOS Handel threw out? Republican(s) trying to steal this election is nothing new.
Jonathan, I like your optimism. We'll see...the senatorial race has been narrowing dramatically, but at this point I'd settle for a fairly run run-off election (although I'm not looking forward to another month of horrible negative political ads).
And the presidential race has been narrowing here, too...it's 52-48% with McCain leading. Another 15 EVs for Obama would be great, but at this point I'm just hoping for a fair senate count now that Obama's been elected anyway.
Some interesting things developing into the early morning. Or for some of us living overseas, just in time for some evening reading.
Thanks for keeping up on these races, it's appreciated. You guys rock.
SHOCK: Stevens leads Begich in Alaska with over 70% reporting:
http://bearsandballots.blogspot.com/2008/11/shock-stevens-leads-by-5000-with-37.html
Can we get some analysis of this?
Yes, Please - any commentary on AK senate race?
But what about Alaska?
The sheer fact a state would overwhelmingly vote for a felon, tells us all we need to know about Alaska Politics. They like their politician's to be a little shady...and a LOTTA bitchy.
Can somebody explain how many votes we're supposed to see from GA? I see that about 2 mil voted early and that about 55% of likely voters reported that they voted early. Which would mean that we should look for a little under 4 million total votes. I see a little over 3.6 mil so far. That seems about right to me.
At 85%, CNN calls MT for McCain. Meanwhile, with 100% precincts reporting and Obama ahead by over 10K, NC remains up for grabs. Go figure.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Go blue, Georgia!
FRAUD IN NEBRASKA! Obama had the lead with 100% precincts reporting, then, the number suddenly changed!
Investigate this Nate, the local media is atrocious!
Could you all please cut us Alaskans some slack. Although I am thrilled that Obama won, now we get Palinocchio and the Dude back as co-governors, a 7 time convicted felon and senator, and the dumbest fricking idiot as our Representative. I could really do without the additional crap that people are piling on us. My only solace is that Ted will be expelled from the Senate some day, Don Young will be indicted with a year (I'll bet you a salmon on it), and Caribou Barbi will head off to work at Fox News. Living in this state really sucks sometimes.
The current results on Nebraska's 2nd (McCain +569) appear to be just about final. I guess they might shake out a few extra votes somewhere, especially if there's a recount, but it's not very promising.
I don't mind having my district go red - at least there's a relatively decent candidate on the Republican ticket this time - but losing by such a razor thin margin is so much more agonizing than the standard Republican landslide vote. I anticipate much smugness on the part of the Republican faithful in these parts.
Stevens leading by just over 2%, I expect about 80K more votes to be counted.
The word is that Anchorage and Juneau precincts have reported - they lean D. The bush (usually last to report) leans heavily D, but may not have the 4000 + margin to flip the race back to Begich...
thene, here's another link:
http://www.11alive.com/news/politics_govt/elections/decision_2008/story.aspx?storyid=123175&catid=228
Any reason no one is calling NC for Obama? I've seen him with a 12,000 vote lead with 100% reporting for over an hour! Is there an automatic recount or something?
Also, as a Minnesota resident... unless you live in Alaska or the mountain west, it is hard to understand how isolated some of those parts of northern MN are. The majority of outstanding precincts are in St. Louis County, which includes these isolated areas, but also Duluth. According to the local telecast, Duluth is all in, so it should only get closer.
Franken lead cut back to 315.
CNN now has Coleman re-taking the lead.
Coleman 1,165,845
42%
Franken 1,164,212
42%
Barkley 421,343
15%
Homer, if the cities lean D, and the "bush" leans D, where are all these McCain votes coming from? I have to admit I don't know much about AK.
Hey Dave - another Alaskan here. I will not take your bet on Young; but will he stay in office after the fact?
If Begich looses, the Senate will toss Stevens and we will have a run off election against Sean Parnell or Palin (God help us).
cnn has coleman back on top
Hennepin County Precincts not reporting
More suburban precincts than Minneapolis...
Gagirl-
Certainly, your S.O.S. is really more of an S.O.B.
But there was no grand conspiracy this election cycle on the part of the R's to steal this election, and if there was, we would be having a far different conversation. Maybe some partisan hacks like Handel are being assholes, but let's not start this new era with wild accusations that only inflame passions more than they already are. Let's not seize power and turn into the bad guys RIGHT away.
That being said, we'd better count all those GA votes. I like the idea of a blue GA AND a runoff next month, kind of like a playoff game for that 60th seat.
Sheesh, I should run for office myself, with the way I talk out of both sides of my mouth.
Craig,
I'm not sure I follow your reasoning about St. Louis County. Hibbing and Virginia are at least as left-leaning as duluth and they have a combined population of ~25,000. Is there any word about whether they're in? if they're the part of St. Louis County that is still out, the race will widen, not contract.
@Dave:
We all have our burdens to bear - I'm in Hawaii, where Dan Inouye seems hell-bent on backing Stevens no matter how guilty the guy is. Much to everyone's embarassment over here.
NYTimes.com has NC as a win for Obama... their totals show 100% in and Obama up about 12,000.
Leans D in local races. There was really no chance that a R would win the presidential race here (even before Palin).
Just does not happen here - yet.
Alaskans main party identification is Independent. I see a huge amount of split ticket voters.
Looks like they expect the senate race to drag on for a bit, about 14,ooo ballots will not be counted until 10 days....
For Begich to win, he'd have to take the remaining vote something like 37k to 32k. Is that possible? We have no idea where the remaining vote is.
No Runoff in MN Senate. There will be a Recount if the vote is within .5%
Re: Prop 8
Lots of uncounted votes in urban areas in CA which might usually run more liberal -- Alameda County has nothing but early absentees, San Francisco has about 30% uncounted, and the biggest number of votes is left in LA. The early absentees in Alameda are running about 60% No; if the actual votes in the county follow that, Alameda alone could close the gap by about 100,000 votes.
With the votes that are still out, 8 could still fail, though things don't look pretty now.
C, it's true those are more suburban than Minneapolis, but Richfield and Bloomington lean left (not as much as MPLS) and Maple Grove isn't unreasonably right. i don't think the net is too far from even, but I guess we'll see...
Maybe an automatic recount is triggered in NC because of the small margin??
So, no call for O.
wtf
coleman up 2k now
it's over
Mpls. is now all in.
How awesome is it that you're still up blogging and there's so many comments already. We really can't get enough of this stuff. It still hasn't *fully* sunk in yet, even though I know it's real.
Hank - I expect about 80K more votes. Many from the Bush, which leans D, but sees huge revenue from Stevens and the Denali commission etc.
Inouye does have a strange affinity for Stevens; otherwise he is an admirable man...
for MN, Hennepin has more suburban left to come in, but St. Louis county has Duluth that has hardly shown up at all.
In my totally unprofessional opinion, Franken is now done in MN. We just had a recount in a primary for a judicial election, and the results changed by less than a hundredth of a percent, so don't count on a recount.
I have no idea what the excuse is for some suburban precincts not having results almost 7 hours after the polls closed.
This is playing out exactly like two years ago when Governor Pawlenty won reelection by just a few votes. The mythical outstanding St. Louis County votes didn't save Mike Hatch, and they won't save Franken.
FRANKY BACK ON TOP!!
I LIED!!
franken ahead 2k again?
Inouye and Stevens are both WWII vets. What are the odds that 63 years after the end of that war, there would be not one but two living veterans serving in the 100 person United States Senate? It's a shame that one of them is corrupt and the other is apparently senile...
CNN has Franken back ahead now.
For those with Georgia on their minds:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/5/12649/6674/253/653696
It would appear that you spoke too soon. CNN and local media now put Franken back in the lead.
Come on Al!
Franken
1,186,148
42%
Coleman
(Incumbent)
1,184,252
42%
Barkley
428,378
15%
98% of precincts reporting
FRANKY PULLING AWAY!!!
@dkan71: Some of us cheated by vacationing in places where it's just about midday....
Homer said: "Inouye does have a strange affinity for Stevens; otherwise he is an admirable man..."
I guess it's a combination of long-term relationship in Senate combined with a fairly close relationship between HI and AK as states. Lots of Native Hawaiian "expats" living in AK. There and Las Vegas, interestingly enough.
Franken vs Coleman is high drama.
If the exit polls are now accurate on Proposition 8, it's tied within a rounding error. I'm not giving up hope yet.
1,188,073 F
1,185,786 C
97% reporting
Minnesota seems likely to go to a recount. As said earlier, there's an automatic recount if the margin's within 0.5% (~14,000 votes).
Word Verification: rhipsab
Will Al give a victory speech at 5am est? :)
Franken v. Coleman is keeping this med student up. Cellular processes can WAIT.
Thanks for the dailykos link! I keep refreshing the 11Alive.com homepage...race is still narrowing, but possibly not enough.
And wow, the MN race is even closer! I'm hoping Franken can keep up his lead.
Re: Alaska. Could there be a sort of Bradley effect going on here, where people don't want to admit to a pollster that they are voting for a convicted felon, but then do it anyways?
Now it's saying 100%, same #'s.
81k and change for the 3rd guy.
Franken wins!
HOW IS TED STEVENS WINNING....HE WAS CONVICTED OF 7 FELONIES!?
Damn it to hell..you all know whats going to happen now...hes going to go back to the senate, reid is going to get him expelled...palin is going to resign as governor and appoint herself senator...and we're going to have to see her on CNN ALL THE TIME now...
This isnt sarcasm by the way, this is the likely scenario on how things go down.
With 72% reporting, Ted Stevens leads 49-46.
Alaska, are you #%#$ing kidding me? You're electing a convicted felon to office? Are you trying to establish yourself as the biggest political joke in the union?
I mean no offense to Alaskans, but... come on!
I have WCCO radio on and they can't seem to figure out what numbers are real. Me neither!
Sec State has Coleman winning:
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=all&P=A&Races=%27%27
CBS has Franken up:
http://election.cbsnews.com/election2008/state.shtml?state=MN
CNN has Franken up more!:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#MNS01
What is going on?!
LA Times is saying Georgia has about 100,000 votes left to count of the 600,000 early votes... not enough to flip the state for Obama or win the senate seat... but I think definitely enough to make this go to a runoff.
@clint same here. i gotta get to bed, but watching the numbers swing back and forth is too much fun.
Just John, clearly you are not from Georgia, as I am.
The state of Georgia does not need the advice or help of the National Republican Party in their attempts to royally fuck things up. Indeed, it is entirely possible given the general level of incompetence and stupidity regularly on display by our trusted one-party state officials that they don't even need an intent to fuck them up.
Georgia doesn't really have any motivation to steal the election for Obama--if McCain needed Georgia to win, then he was in trouble. Chambliss, however, is another matter.
I'm not saying there was deliberate fowl play. But there are whole counties around Atlanta (huge, growing, majority black counties that break 75/25 for Democrats) where voter turnout is only up about 3% over 2004. These are, again, fast-growing counties where turnout increased by 25%+ between 2000 and 2004. Clearly and obviously, something has gone drastically wrong.
So Nate, there's kind of an xkcd comic that references you (hold your cursor over the image for the alt-text).
http://xkcd.com/500/
The St. Louis, MO NBC affiliate (KSDK.com) is showing McCain took Missouri with 1,442,577 votes to Obama's 1,436,724, 100% of precincts reporting.
Ivan Moore polling agency has some 'splaining to do.
Also, anyone notice how quiet Drudge has been since about 10:30 eastern? No sirens, no huge above the fold type, not much in the way of above the fold story blurbs. Just silence and bitterness. Remember "ABCCBSNBCNYTLATWSJCNNMSNBCAPREUTERSAFPPOLITICOFTTIMEWASHPOSTNEWSWEEK: CAN THEY ALL BE WRONG?" from a few days ago? I guess we all got the answer to that tonight...
Hey there - I did not vote for the guy. He is quite entrenched here and it looks like he will win...
Palin can not appoint herself to his seat. She can resign the governership and run in the run off election..
No more appointments after Murkowski appointing his daughter...
They call the Steven's race as part of the Palin effect...
Stevens won't win. I can't find the county-by-county breakdown, but urban (blue) votes usually come in later.
RE: Alaska,
Either there's some sort of Bradley-like bias effect that all polls missed, or the outstanding areas are heavily D. Both the house and senate races are several points farther R than pretty much any polls suggested...
@GA GIRL: "More than 600,000 ballots cast before Tuesday in Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett were to be counted after the live Tuesday votes.
Fascinating stuff. With the lead at less than 300K and 600K in early votes left to count - early voting leaning Democrat - it'd be wild to see GA flip blue. Wishful thinking, maybe, but hey, one wish came true already today, I'm feeling lucky!
I'm a MN Resident, and my eyes are half-glazed over watching the Senate race here.
As for Alaska...what the hell, guys? Convicted felon! I...just, wow. I suppose they may be electing him in hopes that he will then resign his post and Gov. Palin will appoint a new Republican senator, but still...yikes.
I think the Refresh button on my browser may physically break at this point, even though that's impossible.
Not sure what is going on in MN... CNN keeps showing Franken up, but I'm not sure where that comes from... I am also refreshing MN Sec. of State, I don't think that has ever shown Franken up...
If Franken does win... how infuriating would it be if Sarah Palin is the 41st Republican Senate vote for the next 2 years?
So why hasn't North Carolina been called for Obama? He's been up 11k there with 100% reporting for hours.
oops- it was 98% with 97% of Hennepin and Barkley (?) had 429k & change.
Looking good for Al!
Too bad Bachmann won. I'll take Al's victory were it one or the other.
I would say that the Senate will just expel Stevens if he returns, but who the hell knows... Of COURSE Palin will run for that seat if it opens. It's a much cushier job than governor.
I really don't want Palin to vanish from the scene. Everyone at my victory party tonight seemed to agree that her presence on the ticket helped Obama far more than McCain.
How ironic is it that the one thing that McCain accomplished with the pick of Sarah Palin was the reelection of Ted Stevens?
I think that really juiced up Republican turnout in Alaska. Its hilarious that he just succeeded in reelecting a felon and a man he hates.
It also will highlight the questionable judgment of the Alaskan people if Palin chooses to run in 2012.
benh57 said...
So why hasn't North Carolina been called for Obama? He's been up 11k there with 100% reporting for hours.
Provisional ballots haven't been counted.
Don Yong is winning in Alaska too.
What a fucked up state.
They're waiting for Bo and Luke Duke to give up the final ballots after they took off with them in the General Lee. Oops. That was Georgia.
It is absolutely huge for Al Franken to have the lead heading into a recount. We saw how important that was in Florida. Anyone know which way their supreme court leans?
@ Discipulus:
I hope so, I really do. Even so, this race just flat-out should not be close. I knew that Alaskans hated the feds, but jeez.
Only the fools in Louisiana are similarly foolish, reelecting William "Federal investigators found 40k in my freezer" Jefferson...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Jefferson
RE - reverse Bradley affect in the polls in AK...
I never believed the AK senate polls, never. Somethings you just can tell by your gut. The AK polls I never believed on this site - that was the only thing I disagreed with...
BTW - we are already the laughing stock of State Politics. We send them to jail as fast as they make them...
Hank said...
It is absolutely huge for Al Franken to have the lead heading into a recount. We saw how important that was in Florida. Anyone know which way their supreme court leans?
Who cares how they lean? Franken doesn't need to stop a recount; just survive one.
Why are the colours so dark for the actual-results charts? What an ugly shade of blue :( (I'm allowed to say that; I'm from Canada, and here the colours are reversed)
Georgia having yet to count the early votes is VERY interesting and could completely change that state. That's pretty lame, though, that they haven't counted them yet; what were they thinking? That's a really kind of shady way of doing things.
Anyone else suck down a lot of Tecate tonight?
There could very well have been a reverse-bradley effect working in Alaska, as there was lots of publicity and the national political climate was against Stevens.
This said, in the past this effect has only differed from polls by about 6 points.
Also, it really only is in reference to Black candidate, so judging it's possible influence in this race is very difficult, though the same principles apply (of the reverse bradley effect):
It is socially unadvisable to support candidate X, Polling shows candidate X behind, but in the election, candidate X outperforms his polls.
Clint - Brings to mind the old saying my polisci prof used to quote all the time when we wondered aloud how come some scumbags kept getting reelected.
"He may be a sumbitch, but he's OUR sumbitch!"
Both the MN sec. state and CNN have 98% in BUT:
CNN
Franken 1,188,975
Coleman 1,186,710
Sec. State
Franken 1,179,000
Coleman 1,185,993
Franken is missing almost 10,000 votes!
Just John: "I really don't want Palin to vanish from the scene. Everyone at my victory party tonight seemed to agree that her presence on the ticket helped Obama far more than McCain."
Amenaroonie! Love the stories I've been reading about the GOP saying "Love her or leave the party". Please, PLEASE let her be their new standard-bearer, we couldn't ask for better.
Hank - 90k in Jefferson's freezer, not 40k. You were off by a third of Sarah Palin's wardrobe!
It's all Duluth left in St. Louis County. Should go for FrankyFrank 50-40
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SelectPrecinct.asp?M=P&rq=69Saint_Louis
FrankyFrank will win
@thentro i've been wondering the same thing.
Just John -
"He may be a sumbitch, but he's OUR sumbitch!"
That about sums it up exactly; except he brings home a lot of money....
MPR agrees with sec state numbers.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/2008/campaign/results/mn/ussenate.php
CNN math error? Where do they get their data?
These alaska numbers keep coming in and they really hurt my brain.
Uncle ted is going to get reelected...and im dumbfounded.
What kind of state are they running up there? Give that place to canada or something.
Can we just let Alaska go and become it's own country?
Plz?
--Todd Palin
I chased a hot chick to Alaska one summer. She broke my heart. She looked like Pocahontas. In fact, that was her nickname.
OOOh woooh... I'm beggin' you Beggich, please don't lose
Fox just had Franken 1.93 to 1.92 with 98%
I wonder if the race being called early for obama influenced the voting in AK. After all, if im not mistaken polls there were open until 1pm EST, and Obama looked like the winner by 10 pm EST, and confirmed by 11
The AP's OR-SEN precincts-reporting numbers are screwy. Multnomah's only reported 30%, not 100%.
I haven't given up on Prop 8. Looking at CNN, they still have a lot of votes to count in Alameda, Napa, Monterey and Contra Costa Counties.
Hey, WHERE WAS HANNITY AND O"BIll-BO the drunken irish clown tonight?
I just have no faith in New Orleans politics... they re-elect Ray Nagin after Katrina and his following ineptitude, they re-elect Jefferson after 90k in his freezer and alleged 400k in bribes, etc.
I spent the last 4 years in NOLA, and I was continuously baffled that these people didn't want something better.
Of course MPR agrees.. look at their source: "Source: Minnesota Secretary of State" obviously the numbers are going to be the same.
MO: McCain 1,442,577, Obama 1,436,724, Total 2,916,604.
Difference 5,853 = 0.20%
(Closer than any state in 2004, only wider than Florida and New Mexico in 2000.)
Word Verification: caphsapi
Alaska polls were open until midnight EST, except for some of the Aleutians. The election wasn't called until 11pm EST, so I doubt too many voters bailed before voting.
Shadowspecies,
Are you looking for an Alaska/Puerto Rico status swap or something?
Remember, we've got to have 50 states to keep the flags in order :)
Anyone listening to AM radio tonight? How bad is it?
Looks like Minnesota has a fast recount process:
http://www.govtech.com/gt/articles/417322?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GTEN%20-%20E-Newsletter_2008_9_22
Diogo - I suspect the late early call for Obama had little effect.
We closed at 8 PM AKST.
Our democrats are very motivated here, there is just not enough of us yet...
We are historically a very Red state - too red to reject a convicted felon apparently.
I believe if the Stevens trial was not such a circus, Begich would have won. The trial left too much doubt in many's minds, add that to just keeping the seat (R) for strategy and you have a Steven's win.
The Religious Left said...
"Hey, WHERE WAS HANNITY AND O"BIll-BO the drunken irish clown tonight?"
Slunk off to lick their wounds, one imagines.
wv "snesi", as in "No, I'm Sleepy, He's Snesi."
hmm.
1. Let Alaska secede.
2. Invade it for the oil.
3. Profit!
This is terrible...
all sense tells me I should go to bed and find out tomorrow, especially since there is likely to be a recount.
However, that 2% remaining out in Minnesota is keeping me up.
I saw the exact numbers CNN had earlier on the MN site just now, so it looks like CNN is getting the freshest data before MN can get the data onto its own website. Could be a lot of reasons for that.
It looks like overall nationwide turnout is going to be lower than 2004. Surprising.
Franky up 1,400 votes.
Still to come...
- 750 for Coleman in Cass
- Unknown number for someone in Hennepin (They have been alternately reporting suburbs and city)
- 500 for Franky in Itasca
- 700 for Coleman in Wright
- 20,000 votes outstanding in St. Louis County. I have identified most as being in Duluth. I expect Franky to split these with Coleman 12,000-8,000
There's 3 blue counties (90%) and one red county (82%) in northern MN if you scroll over the mad on CNN.
Hennepin still at 98%
Franken up by about 1400 statewide
These "Alaskan" comments are growing to be annoying. I though democrats were supposed to be above that senseless rhetoric that is usually reserved for the 'right' and AM radio sect of society.
I guess not???
Coleman just picked up 900 votes in Hennepin County. NOT YET in the CNN total.
Nate will probably nail the popular vote and come very close in electoral votes. Congrats!
Normally we are, homer. But Alaska is proving itself to be America's shit stain.
Sorry...
Oh, Homer, come now. Have a sense of humor.
madamerica said...
"It looks like overall nationwide turnout is going to be lower than 2004. Surprising."
I'm a little confused by that. By all accounts I've read, we've had the highest turnout for decades. Where did you get that?
Let's gp over Stevens, Inoye, Reid and Alaska.
When the Hawaii senator sort of repealed Ted's convictions and Reid jumped in late Saturday to say that Stevens would get kicked out until the appeal cleared him, Alaskans would take that as an huge insult. Also, the natives hold a rather simple allegiance to Ted. Some of the pork he got up there paid for the medivac planes that can fly to the remote areas that have no medical facilities. And speaking of remote and flying. The votes in those villages would have been put on planes after the end of polling, that would easily be going to more than one community. Alaska is 2 and a HALF times the state of Texas, and spread out over 4 time zones. It will take awhile before the bush vote arrives in Juneau to be counted. Unless they changed the procedure since I was there.
Also, there has to be a run off election for the Senate seat. The unpopular GOP governor Sarah ousted was Frank Murkowski, who appointed his daughter to the Senate seat he vacated when elected governor. They went and passed a law to keep the scummy pols from doing it again.
Dave, all I can say is living in AK has one advantage when it comes to the level of weirdness in the population. At least there is plenty of exquisitely beautiful space you can put between you and them.
Blow Sarah some kisses when she comes back, and don't let her out of the state again!
ptoreit; the taste Sarah's voice leaves in your mouth.
@ Homer:
I don't mean to offend, so I apologize if I did, it's just... Alaska is close to re-electing a convicted felon.
I don't know how else to express my feelings about that.
With 81 percent of the precincts reporting there are about 194,000 votes reported in Alaska. In 2004 there were 301,000 votes cast. Something doesn't sit right there. If the ratio of voters to precincts holds, that works out to about 240,000 voters in an election where a native daughter was on the ticket and turnout was steady or up nation wide.
Here's a listing of all counties in Minnesota with a breakdown of precincs
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/PrecRpt.asp?M=TPR
Homer,
Alaska is just one of the last few remaining interests for a den of crazed, obsessed poll watchers :)
It is a surprise and is of considerable interest, and that is why it is a topic of discussion.
They may elect a convicted felon to the Senate. By law, he won't even be eligible to vote!
As for the "kick it out" comments.. it seems like it's all in good fun
Josh said...
"Normally we are, homer. But Alaska is proving itself to be America's shit stain. Sorry..."
No, actually that would be electing, then re-electing George Bush. Nothing else comes close.
Franken now down to a 379 vote lead, according to CNN.
Final thought before bed: from Iowa through today, youth voters have pretty much been Obama's margin of victory.
According to my exit calculations, McCain nationally virtually tied Obama among over 30's (40.41 Obama vs. 39.95 McCain). But in the 18-29 segment, Obama crushed McCain 68-32.
McCain is tied or leading the 30+ voters in just about all of the flipped Bush 2004 states.
VA 60-39
FL 61-37
IA 61-36
IN 63-35
NV 69-30
NM 71-27
NC 73-27
CO is the only outlier as Obama does worse among younger voters (!?)
As a 27-year-old, let me just say that the Republicans had better figure out what we want or they are going to be spending a good long while out of power.
A return to pragmaticism, empiricism, and intellectualism would be a good start.
franken lead only 380 on cnn
Those of you agonizing about Stevens in Alaska might enjoy this about what we have to put up with over here in the UK.
Can you imagine working for a company that has a little more than 600
employees and has the following statistics?
29 have been accused of spouse abuse
7 have been arrested for fraud
19 have been accused of writing bad cheques
117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses
3 have done time for assault
71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit
4 have been arrested on drug-related charges
8 have been arrested for shoplifting
21 are currently defendants in lawsuits
84 have been arrested for drink driving in the last year
152 have been arrested for drink driving in the last three years, that is a quarter of the entire workforce!
Which organization is this?
It's the 635 members of the House of Commons, the same group that cranks out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep the rest of us in line.
it really looks like the heavy Dem Duluth area needs to come in major. But I really really don't know who is winning. Sec state says 98.57% reporting and Franken loosing by almost 6,000. CNN has 99% reporting and has Franken winning by over 1,000!
In addition to all the points made by fellow Alaskans --
A lot of people *honestly think* the trial was mishandled and that basically they got it wrong. They believe Stevens when he says he did nothing wrong and that he'll clear his name -- for that matter, I kind of think Stevens himself believes he's a victim and that he's been used by Bill Allen et al. (Yeah, I know.)
With 81% of the vote in I think he's going to take it. What's it look like in regards to the 2/3 vote for a request to leave -- especially before the inevitable appeal? (In all fairness I must admit to having some misgivings about the trial myself, I admit it. Go ahead with the mob scene. ;D)
will someone just tell me who won in MN
Alaska is just one of the last few remaining interests for a den of crazed, obsessed poll watchers
Did someone say "obsessed"?
I had dozed off.
Is the election tomorrow or Thursday?
4 precincts left in Hennepin. Not sure where they are. About 35 precincts left in St. Louis County, mostly in Duluth
j, who is going to win this thing?
Mrs B - that sounds like our politics here.
All - No offense, just a reality check.
We Alaskans are not all that bad - there is a very organized and determined group up here, just a little smaller than we need to be.
ATTN: Nate Silver et al, thank you so much for this fantastic blog; you ended up being spot-on.
As an obsessive-compulsive numbers freak who unfortunately has a bit of laziness about him, I am endlessly grateful for the work you've done, the models you've created, and the magnificent projections you made.
You have profoundly & effectively proven that stand-alone polls - even those from so-called experts - cannot be taken at face value unless they are surrounded by properly analyzed contextual evidence.
I salute you for your work, your success, and for the countless hours I spent taking my nails out from between my teeth long enough to click Refresh.
Josh,
It looks like Franken will go into the recount with at least a 1000 vote lead once all of the votes come in, which is pretty promising.
j: Where do you get the info that the remaining precincts are in Duluth not rural St. Louis County?
Is there any chance there WONT be a runoff in Minnesota?
If, as someone said before, votes within .5% = runoff, and it seems there's no way either will break that mark....
Nate I want you to address your senate prediction saying 100% safe dem for begich.
Considering ted stevens is about to win it.
GA uses all diebold electronic machines with no paper trail.
I've been concerned about that since they first showed up.
Craig,
You can run precinct-by-precinct checks on the STL Cty website.
FLASH FLASH COleman to net 900 votes in latest Hennepin precint. CNN tally will show COleman up 600 shortly.
Meredith - RE the trial.
The prosecution almost let a guilty man go free. I have never seen a prosecution done so horribly - sure he was found guilty, but they almost blew the whole trial and the appeal may very well go Steven's way.
Not b/c Stevens is innocent; but b/c the prosecution failed miserably at basic legal functions.
This doubt is exactly what Stevens exploited and I believe why he is winning.
He will be tossed from the Senate and we will have a run -off. no more appointments. And I give Begich very little chance to win in a run off, despite his opponent.
About overall turnout, with 93% reporting, we have a total of 115 million votes. In 2004, there were 125 million. We'll see the exact numbers at the end.
Then I guess we need to pull / hope for the folks of St. Louis County to bring in more Franken votes.
*knocks on wood*
fucking damn it. come on franken.
not a runoff - a recount.
I still don't know where the sec of state numbers are different. they're not just delayed - coleman's 2000 off his cnn figure, franken's 9000
If the turnout is the same, I guess the increased AA, Hispanic and youth turnout was offset by depressed Bush base turnout?
Damn you, J, for being right. Coleman up :(
pleslog... as in pleslog off and go to bed, Clint :(
Duluth precincts starting to come in now. It's heavy for Franken.
Ok j, you obviously have far superior knowledge to me (no sarcasm), I will just await your updates (please keep doing so).
Silver lining to McCain's apparent win in MO by about 6,000 votes: at least we won't have to hear about MO always correctly predicting the president anymore.
AK:
96% reporting
Stevens 48%
Begich 47%
(cnn)
he's been closing, but does he have enough votes left to actually win?
Homer, remember the UK headline after 2004 that was something like "How can 59 million people be so STUPID?" Hey there were almost 59 million that weren't.
I would totally fight letting AK secede. Better to relocate all the religious fanatics to Texas and let them join Mexico. Build the wall around Texas.
Ok, we got good libs in Texas. Just need the minority population to grow some more and get them to vote.
Mrs. B
Thanks for the list. I heard it on a radio program here only the preceding question was whether it was NFL or NBA players. The answer was neither, it was the 538 members of Congress. Hey, it could just as easily be the ball players or the 600 employee corporation. Humans are the same where ever they work or live....
comenest: GOP slang for a commie cell.
Can anybody who has better skill let me know what's up with Nebraska's second? Last I saw it was McCain 400 up, or something... is that ALL votes, not counting absentee?
Just looking for some info, it may seem insignificant, but as a Dem in a red state I still ache to see my vote 'count' in a way, and it will inspire dems in all future elections...
The Sec of State numbers being so different.... is it possibly a lack of staff to actually update the website? Priority wise?
And in terms of sleep - damn this election. I got four hours of sleep last night, and it's going on 4am. But seeing as this is my state...want to stay up. Yeesh.
Another 200 for COleman in the newest reporting Hennepin precinct
Getting tight in Oregon. I like Smith because he was a level headed critic of the war. Still, I want the number as high as possible in the Senate. 59 if we're lucky. Looks like Saxby Chambliss (my god, what a name- sounds like some character out of Gone With The Wind) will pull it off up 4pts. Others are too close.
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