A clear favorite has been established in all but one of the 34 senate races on the ballot today. Although the Democrats remain in as strong a position in the aggregate as they have been all year, their odds of emerging with a 60-seat caucus now appear fairly long -- no better than about 15 percent.
What movement there has been over the past few days has mostly been in North Carolina and Kentucky. In the former race, Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad clearly seems to have backfired, and Kay Hagan has emerged with a 7-point lead in the latest polls from PPP and SurveyUSA. When coupled with the strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Dole will need a miracle to retain her seat.
In Kentucky, on the other hand, polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA suggest Mitch McConnell standing a safe enough distance away from the brink, with leads of 7 and and 8 points, respectively.
So that sets the following scene: Democrats will almost certainly pickup the Republican-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado and New Hampshire, although there is a remote upset possibility in the latter race, where Republicans were pleased with John Sununu's performance in his debates against Jeanne Shaheen. North Carolina and Oregon are also likely to send freshman democrats to the Senate Chamber.
The Republicans are the significant favroites to hold onto their seats in Mississippi and Kentucky, although upsets remain possible there in the case of a Democratic wave. Georgia is a little trickier. Although all polling continues to show Jim Martin a few points behind Saxby Chambliss, Martin can earn a run-off by holding Chambliss under an outright majority of Georgia's votes. I would assign a 50 percent chance to a Chambliss win outright, a 40 percent chance to a run-off, and a 10 percent chance to a Martin win outright.
Finally, in Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively. Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.
11.04.2008
FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely
@ 9:24 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
174 comments
GOBAMA!
The Democrats will be kicking themselves in the ass for the next two years for running someone as inept as Al Franken.
Boo. Looks unlikely we're getting our 60 seats. Onward to 2010!
KILLIN' BABIES '08!!!!!
It's OUR Day! Obama '08!
Just voted. Suburban WI polling site had 4 little old ladies running the show and 8 election observers.
If Al Franken wins, we're going to be thrilled we put another true progressive in the Senate.
Everyone remember to go out and VOTE!!! There are likely to long lines in most parts of the country, so give yourself plenty of time. Bring photo ID, but if there is any question about your eligibility, make sure that you cast a provisional ballot. I'm off to vote right now, and I encourage everyone else to vote as early as possible. Let's go win this thing!
I want Dole to lose so badly.
My wife and I just put in two more votes for Obama in VA--no wait whatsoever (we waited until 9 to be after the pre-work rush).
In the previous thread (NH votes) the comment section has jumped to over 520 but I can only see the comments till about 2:40 a.m. only. Can some one explain why ? I am hoping to hear all your stories on election day. I voted in Vriginia. Was at the poll at 6 a.m. and already an hour long line. People tell me they have never seen crowds like this before.
And pbh, you do know a Senate term is six years, right?
arun, you have to hit "post a comment".
56-58 seats? I'll take that happily. means we only have to flip a couple republicans for a cloture vote, which will make it easy to get reasonable stuff done and/or to kick Lieberman out of the caucus, but will also keep us from overreaching and losing the middle in 2010. I may be the only democrat in the US who was hoping for us to approach *but not hit* 60.
can we have a dedicated election 'prediction' thread... please!
Thanks!!!
WV too good to pass up:
liess: Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman, etc.
@arun:
we went to bed!
reading posts all night leaves me 'fazinged' in the morning.
arun - if you go to 'post a comment' you can see all the posts, and if you right click and have that open up in a new tab in browsers that support that, you can see them 'full screen' as well.
Good Job to all that worked so hard in this election.
Just voted for Franken here. We got to the polls at 7 and there were over 100 people already ahead of us. Took about a half hour total. I was the 135th person to vote there by the tally on the machine.
ingonse. Coleman is in today, but will be gonse tomorrow.
The hubby and I just got back from a 1 hour wait in Boston - count two more for President Obama and Senator Kerry!
I voted for Obama in Florida (which still looks pretty red in my area). I'm listening to Townes Van Zandt and trying to not be too nervous. TVZ keeps me calm. I've been waiting for this day for a long time.
In the words of Mr. Dylan:
The Times They Are A-Changin'
Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.
I think Franken is a much better candidate than he is given credit for. He actually knows the issues, unlike some VP candidates I could mention.
I think he’s being unfairly tarred with the “comedian” tag. He’s worked as a comedian, yes, but he’s also worked as an actor, and more importantly, as a writer. It didn’t seem to bother that many people that Reagan was an actor, and Reagan never wrote any of his own material.
This is one smart guy, and he would make a great addition to the Senate. It would be nice to have some in there that we laugh at because he intended to be funny.
Thanks for the one last update before I head back out to Obama HQ here in Stroudsburg PA. I have to say that all the talk about the ground game? Is understating the case. Sunday they knocked on more than 1.1 million doors in PA, yesterday the floods of volunteers coming in for canvassing and phonebanking never stopped. I volunteered here for Kerry in 2004 and there is literally NO comparison. So much better organized.
If you can come in to your local office, DO IT! They can and will put you to good effective use. And if you have one, bring in a laptop or iphone/blackberry. They also still need line managers all over ideally for tonight.
Reminder to anyone, if you're in line by the time the polls close, you can stay and cast your vote. Bring an umbrella (and maybe even an extra for others in line if you can!) and halloween candy leftovers to share! :)
Actually Franken's "Operation:Ignore" is the best run-down of the Bush administration's anti-terrorism policy pre-9/11...meaning ignore ignore ignore.
He's a smart guy who knows the issues. I don't always agree with him, but he deserves a seat.
That said, I think that GA is going to a run off and that McConnell is going to lose in KY. I think that at the end of the day, the Obama machine is going to end up being worth 2-3 points nationwide, and possibly 5-6 points in non-swing states.
I really think you have to include Barkley in your Minnesota figures. Arne Carlson first ran for governor as a third party candidate and won when the campaign turned ugly. Jesse Ventura also ran as a third party candidate and won, even though the polls never showed him with a lead or a chance.
And a lot of Minnesotans who watched the debate on Sunday had to have given serious consideration to voting for Barkley. I notice that none of your Senate polls in MN were taken after Sunday -- I think Barkley is going to take at least a much larger share of the vote, if not win it all.
hank gillette said...
It would be nice to have some in there that we laugh at because he intended to be funny.
And that's no joke.
Sorry.
Got up early today to vote for OBAMA!
Thanks for the final update Nate! Great work!!
Got to the polls at 6:30, done voting by 7:45.
Count one more for the Blue Team in MI.
WV: allaccu
As in, allaccu a lot, you are mah friend.
As much as I support the Democrats, I'm kinda glad that they don't get a supermajority. Absolute power is NEVER a good thing in government.
Hey--57 or 58 is better than nothing!
This is a pain. We have waited so long for this day, and it's going to feel like a year.
Keep the stories coming in folks, I love hearing about how others time at the polls were.
I live in the suburbs way north of NYC. Got there at 7:00 was out by 7:05. Thank goodness. One more for President Obama.
@PeteKent
"In the long sweep of life and human history we are but grains of sand, nanoseconds of time in a Universe created by God.
Here at 538 we have engaged in navel gazing and disective anlaysis of the most intense kind that we often miss the forest for the trees.
To me this puts an Obama win in a context with which I can deal with it: a speedbump along the road of a people aspiring to indeed be His Kingdom.
How inhuman I would be not to feel the affirmation of Little Vincent who himself is entitled to greatness even as these others pass before us, cabbages and Kings.
Then there is Michie, casting a first vote at 19! The promise of youth, a young citizen brought into our Democracy.
It is of these, the Michies the Little Vincents, the DCMs, the Kozs, the Sedis, Inkstains, Judas Priests, Counsellor Orbens, the Sock Puppets, Trolls and provocateurs of whom the fabric of society is knit.
Sadly, many have learned the habit of shouting down and simply deriding thought they are opposed to, but each thread of argument must be followed and respected as being part of the grat comforting quilt that is American Democracy.
America: Land of Historical Greatness and Future Promise.
Cherish it and nurture it and hand it on in better shape to our children. "
Well said Sir, well said!
58 or 59 seems to definitely be the consensus.
Cleveland Rally: Barack and Bruce
PeteKent, spare your righteous religious crap. Some of us don't believe in god, and just as you find those words offensive to you, I find yours offensive to me. God and Government have never and shall never mix.
Obama will be elected beause the PEOPLE elect him, it's the simple. THAT is the greatness of this land.
Couple of additional late polls from Nate's friends at ARG...
Alaska
M: 55
O: 43
You wonder if Obama could have been a lot closer here if not for Palin.
Nevada
O: 52
M: 47
Rhode Island voting report- Arrived at the polls @ 7:10 a.m. Many people had already voted in that 10 minutes. Everything was moving briskly - poll workers appeared to be organized and friendly (it's good to be early in that regard!). We use paper and pen optical scan ballots - all very easy and quick to do.
Happily voted straight Dem ticket. Was out of there in 10 minutes.
Now the waiting begins...
real joe
on the other thread you said your surprise would come this evening. Over here in the UK it's 2.45 pm. I have no idea what time it is where you are. Can you give us a clue as to what you mean by 'this evening'?
There is more suspense about your surprise than there is about who will be president at this stage - and you are milking it for all it's worth!
this is my last time to attempt posting here--i've been online since 1990, and this is the most terse interface ever. i don't understand why such a robust site in every other way would have such an unfriendly/unmoderated posting system that even trolls can figure out.
i really like the site otherwise, but i've been up for 3 days trying to campaign and stuff.
i just want to know if there will be any updates on CA Prop 8 because that is near and dear my heart. i don't want to see it pass, and this is the best place for accurate info i've found...
please all you trolls (assuming my post goes through) just send your gay hate flames to /dev/null. i'm not interested.
thanks fivethirtyeight
Are we socialist yet? Are we socialist yet? Are we socialist yet?
mrs b
after 7 ET
Breaking News!:
Real Joe to finally reveal his 'surprise' this evening!
In other news, the US PResidential Election is being held today with the result to be declared a few hours after Real Joe's 'surprise'.
If all of the Democratic senators win (Franken, Hagan, Merkley, etc.), how many Republican senators (Martin, Lunsford, Musgrove, etc.) would have to lose for the Democrats to control 60 seats?
wa7th said...
Are we socialist yet? Are we socialist yet? Are we socialist yet?
millions of moonbat's are coming out to vote for socialism
To Penumbralheart: It doesn't look good, but I remain hopeful. I grew up in California and my parents still live there. They have said that they will proudly vote yes to Prop 8 to preserve the integrity of their marriage. In the same breath they said "you deserve all the same rights too, but why do you have to call it marriage". That's what we're up against. I firmly believe if it passes, it will be overturned within years. Keep fighting though.
NC:
voting going on nicely
thanks Real Joe
The fact that you answered a direct question with a direct answer tells me you are NOT Alan Turing's computer, contrary to what someone posted earlier.......
and sherwick, why have you stopped laughing?
wv rednes - guess you guys have had enough of the rednes on the map over the past 8 years
Two more votes for Obama/Jim Martin! 2 hour wait at the polls this morning...not too bad.
Just voted here in downtown Denver. There was a bit of a line, b/c I got there around 5 minutes before the poll opened. The whole process took about 45 minutes.
Yes We Will!
He's Joe Scarborough
SEAN IS A FAT LOSER DOUCHEBAG.
jeff nyc:
Why do you say it doesn't look good? Nate's post a few days ago was very positive.
That's why he so frequesntly posts headlines before anyone else knows about it.
@loralee,
Yes, an individual's term is 6 years, but a third of the senate is up every 2 years, so some folks are going to be running in 2010. Which red fruit are ripe for picking off? is what I want to know.
Got to the poll as they opened at 7, wasn't out until 7:45. In 2004 I stood out in the polling place because I was one of the only 18-30 year old people in the room. This morning people stood out due to their grey hair.
Can probably rack up at least thirty on top of my one for Obama here in Lawrence, Kansas thanks to this morning's experience.
Just got a robocall "Hi, this is John McCain and I'm calling today because I want to keep your taxes low." so he should be happy that I voted for Obama!
Last night in class I was excited enough that I think I let my politics hang out more than I like to. But my whole class was excited too. I was introducing basic probability and showed some of Nate's data and McCain's current win % as an example of empirical probability and they asked questions about the uncertainties of the model, cell phone effect, bradley effect, etc. It was hard to get them back on topic to do experiments with their dice.
I know my part of NC will be very blue, but the mountains I'm not so sure about. I wish having a small child didn't make it so hard to go out and do GOTV things. And, btw, dreary rain in NC today is great news! For my garden!
Loralee: It just seems like the religious right is pouring more money and time into it passing than we are into defeating it. Even rather liberal members of my family there can't bring themselves to vote it down because they've got it in their mind that "man and woman" needs to be enshrined into our laws, as if government contracts have the right to make such distinctions.
GO AL !!!
we need a true progressive back in the senate seat of Paul Wellstone
and gosh darn, people like you...
plus Norm is a putz [and that is the nicest word I could use]
Hey moonbats!
McCain has a North Carolina vote in the bag. So does Libby Dole and McCrory.
You libs are going to be so upset when McCain pulls this thing off my a small margin in the EV and losing the popular vote!
It will be almost as sweet as 2000@ ROFL!
Have fun, lib moonbats! I'll be back for the final results, Socialists!
I'll add my rural NH voting report. I got there at 8am, and there was a line two blocks long down Main St (this is a town with 2900 registered voters). They were well organized, and there were 15 booths and an additional 15 voting screens. The line moved quickly, and I had finished my waiting, voting, and being exit polled by 8:20. I didn't see anyone being challenged, but the challengers had long lists with them.
The elementary school I just voted at (Louisville KY) wasn't too busy but I made it a point to go after the morning rush and before the afternoon rush. All in all it took me 15 minutes from start to finish.
This was the first time I had ever voted straight Democratic all the way down. I have always been an independent but considering how foul these republican candidates are this year I have seriously thought about going back to being registered Democrat.
1 more vote for Obama (even though he won't win here in KY)
Just got back from voting in Charlestown, MA (part of Boston). There is one ward, but two precincts that vote in my polling place. Unlike other years, they had the lines divided up, which cut down on the wait time (although you have to know your precinct in order for that to work).
I got there at about 9:15, was in the wrong line, went to the back of the other precinct line (although an election official asked me if I'd like to have him enquire if I could be inserted into the other line). I was on my way home by 9:45. Not bad at all.
We use paper, pen, and optical scanner. Oh, and the scanner. Normally, you hand your ballot to a policeman that puts it through for you. This time, the person actually said, "This is historic, would you like to do your own honors?" which I happily did!
Raleigh, NC (CNN) - A soggy and delayed start to the voting day in a Raleigh, North Carolina, precinct, after some confusion at the polling station. Wake County Board of Elections director Cherie Poucher reported there were problems this morning at the Barwell Road Community Center (formerly the Ebenezer Church Road precinct). She confirmed that the chief judge forgot to take the ballots out of her grandson's truck when being dropped off this morning. The elections director says the truck drove away, and the judge wasn't able to track down her grandson. The Board of Elections delivered new ballots and voting began at 7:06am, 36 minutes behind schedule. Approximately 300 people were waiting in line.
"When the board meets today, I expect that they will vote to keep the precinct open an additional 36 minutes," Poucher added.
Rain has also been a factor this morning in Wake County, North Carolina. Soaking voters dripped water onto their ballots as they were filling them out, causing problems for the optical scanners.
"When we put the ballot through the scanner it is soggy and doesn't go through," Poucher said. "One ripped and got stuck when the voter tried to get it out." The scanner then had to be taken out of service.
Poucher said voters with soggy ballots were being asked to deposit them in the emergency ballot box. When they are dried and the scanners are back up and running, the ballots will be put through the optical scanners, the official added.
Poucher said that voters will not be inconvenienced because of this situation.
ANALE
nice post. thanks for the update from on the ground in NC
hoping VA & NC & FL & maybe GA all rise with the tide and become BLUE states officially today
YES WE CAN !
ahecht:
What were the exit poll questions? Anything besies the obvious?
Franken is a good candidate, and the best available to run against Coleman. He locked up the party endorsement early on by doing the leg-work and consensus-building necessary, while the other candidates mostly just sat back and took cheap shots at him.
Coleman is hard to beat because he shifts with the breeze and is all over the map, so he can always point to virtually any position and say he supported it or he opposed it, depending on who he is speaking to. During the primaries, he supported Giuliani and made a lot of hateful anti-Islamic statements, but when the writing was on the wall he switched to McCain and moderated his "views", so he wins the spectrum of Republicans.
He is so extremely wishy-washy that I have a hard time seeing why the Republicans want him so badly.
But the MN Republicans genuinely fear Franken, which is the best endorsement he could possibly have.
@Jeff NYC Dem
There's an article on Prop. 8 over at Pollster.com.
It should help cheer you up.
["dedale" - Opposite of "dehill"]
Hillary just been to vote and told reporters the Democrats are heading for a big win today.
report voting problems by phone: 1 866 our vote
It's the election protection hotline: http://www.866ourvote.org/
Also, I saw no observers/challengers this morning at my polling place. A couple of hundred ahead of me, and maybe two hundred still behind me when I left at 7:45.
Lots of poll workers, but pretty shoddy organization -- the individuals confirming the registration seemed to have some real eyesight issues.
I initially encountered difficulty using a student ID, but someone quickly corrected her. (I'm a homeowner, and have a driver's license with the correct address, however I wanted to see if they would accept a state-issued photo ID without an address, as they are required to...)
WV: gollad
Man-oh-man, I will be gollad when this is over.
Jeff, keep the faith...I threw as much money as I could afford against Prop 8 over the weekend, and I think that message is beginning to seep in (that marriage isn't "threatened" by anything other than sky-high divorce rates).
Jeff NYC Dem said...
PeteKent, spare your righteous religious crap
* * *
I alwasy find such hatred,especially directed at faith in God disturbing.
Jeff NYC Dem is one of those speed bumps we have to deal with. He is also one of the reasons why the Obama victory, should it come to pass, will be short-lived.
You cannot govern where your core support is intolerant of religion. We are one Nation Under God and it is our great strength.
What I found most chilling about the posters on this site was their willingness to tolerate and accept hatred and unreason as long as it was in the service of Obama.
@loralee
Just basic stuff: how I voted, age, sex, race, education, income range, and whether I experienced any problems voting.
hope people keep posting voting stories-turnout,problems, waits, etc.
And, Jeff, did you see that Steve Young (yes, descendent of Brigham Young) said a vote for Prop 8 is a vote against freedom and equality? I know it's SF area, but still, that's rather potent.
Jeff,
Please ignore "that one." Sanctimony runs thickest wherever the Christian fundies pop up their ugly little heads.
RIGHT WING
you had a typo...
it is no longer 'Libby' Dole
the correct consensus nickname for her is now officially 'Lizardbreath'
after the 'godless' attack ads against Hagan backfires thankfully against her, Dole is shown to all to be dastardly & despicable & she is toast IMHO
wv - 'spurro'... negative ads can have an inverse reaction & spurro the support for the opposition
Greg Palast, who I consider the leading expert on electoral fraud, said last night that a guranteed 6 million votes have been wiped out by Republican Secretaries of State, most notably in Georgia, Colorado, New Mexico and Indiana. Palast said Colorado's Secreatry of State has been stone-walling him for weeks, and Indiana's Secretary of State should be in prison. He's a criminal, plain and simple.
Indiana is gone for Obama, probably Colorado, also. Tom Udall will likely lose the senate race. A shitload of congressional seats will be flipped to Republicans. The only thing that can stop this is if the turnout exceeds even the record numbers that have been predicted, and if voters are smart. DON'T ACCEPT A PROVISIONAL BALLOT, DEMAND A REAL BALLOT. Or kick up fuck if they refuse.
How McCain Could Win
http://www.gregpalast.com/section/articles/
http://www.truthout.org/110308A
Steal Back Your Vote
http://www.stealbackyourvote.org/
What I found most chilling about the posters on this site was their willingness to tolerate and accept hatred and unreason as long as it was in the service of Obama.
Amen a thousand times over.
@PeterKent,
So who are you really? Although a little to religious for my taste, I don't disagree with the tenor of the thread. It is just not in keeping with the rantings of the PeterK I have grown sadly accoustome to. Is it the meloncholic realization of the reality we have or just a sock puppet moderating the tone.
In other news, I agree with the sentimate of many regarding 58. We need to have moderation in our dealing with the minority party. We do not want a redo of the 92-94 fiasco which lead to the contract for (on) america and the republican rule of congress. As Thommas Jefferson said, beware the tyranny of the majority. We suffered mightly under it for the last eight years (well 6 of 8) and should heed the lesson not repeat the sins.
Look guys, calm down. Pete Kent was doing his best earlier. Few on this site agree with his politics or point of view, but you don't need to insult his beliefs. He isn't his sock puppet. He is going to have a tough enough time today as it is.
I voted early this morning in western Maryland, a deeply red part of a blue state. I am a Navy veteran. I am an Eagle Scout. My work has something to do with the federal government (can't specify). I volunteer many hours a month in my community. I canvassed during this election. I feel that I vote for the good of the country, not just for a political party. I will be proud to work for an intelligent, competent president who supports the Constitution, the people, the rule of law, and the troops. Who am I? That doesn't matter. Who did I vote for..? Go Obama.
Pete the Parrot
you are the intolerant one.
one nation under whose god [with a small 'g']?
cut the crap
your sock puppet makes a better argument than you do, you hypocritical judgmental troll
What I found most chilling about the posters on this site was their willingness to tolerate and accept hatred and unreason as long as it was in the service of Obama.
I can't tell you how amused I am to hear the pro-torture people tell me how "chilled" they are.
wv: goycnn
I'm just not going there....
Just wondering how spot on PorridgeGunn is about 6 million voters being wiped out?
Are we really going to see Mccain steal this election?
Just an apprehensive Dubliner here.
"Sanctimony runs thickest wherever the Christian fundies pop up their ugly little heads"
To people like this everyone who bleives in God is an object of curiosity and worse, scorn.
I think Liddy Dole made a mistake in the way in which she attacked Kay Hagan for taking money from an atheistic group, but are there no Christians (or Hindus, Jews or Muslims) voting for Obama who are willing to speak up for faith?
I am reminded of the parable about the man who did not speak up when the Nazis came for this one and that one and finally when they came for him, sadly, there was no one left to speak up for him!
@porridgegun
Greg Palast can be interesting, but IMHO has a tendency to wildly exaggerate.
If it was actually the case that massive fraud was going on up and down the country someone would have posted a bad experience by now, wouldn't they?
My understanding is that Obama has already had a team of attorneys working on all the caging/suppression/stealing issues for a while now. So, I'm not too concerned. I do hope for such an overwhelming vote that we don't go through another hanging chad episode.
Yesterday, there was supposed to be an analysis of early voting and what effect,if any, early voting had on polls. Anyone see that analysis?
I'm disappointed to hear there are a few problems with voting in some areas. Here in the UK, I normally wait about 30 seconds to vote when I go down to the polling station, (as we call it), and the British turnout is normally higher than the US.
In 1992, for example, turnout in the UK election was 78% of the voting age population, and no problems with voting were reported anywhere. It was 61% at the last election in 2005.
Your inability to discern the distinction I maintain between piety and sanctimony is hardly surprising.
Don't pray on me.
Goodbye -- I'm done with your ignorant little ass for the morning. Enjoy the solid drubbing you and your ilk will receive over the course of the day. If there is a God, I'm sure s/he hates you.
This Election's Katherine Harris, Glenda Hood and Ken Blackwell.
Indiana Secretary of State: Todd Rokita
http://www.in.gov/sos/
Colorado Secretary of State: Mike Coffman
http://www.sos.state.co.us/
Georgia Secretary of State: Karen Handel
http://sos.georgia.gov/
Republican Reps thrown out of Philadelphia!
Jeff NYC Dem:
Even if it is eventually overturned. I feel strongly that this is a piece of legislation that cannot be allowed to exist at all. They are voting to Amend their Constitution--that is so hard to undo.
People need to understand the difference between marriage and weddings. If they want to live under the blanket of the Bill of Rights they need to be informed about the Constitution.
American can't afford to go backward any longer with fear and ignorance. What happened to George Washington's promise "For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction..." 1790, Letter to Newport, Rhode Island Jewish congregation
That is serious language from day one.
I just can't find hope that in 2 years, 5 years, it will be repealed. The example needs to be set now.
Please let there be some positive data.
No offense to porridgegun, but let's just say I think he tends to be a bit of an alarmist.
Anyone see Zogby's final US poll?
Obama 54 - McCain 43
What a fucking chump.
Let me guess, John: There was a dramatic turnaround, right? Everyone suddenly changed their mind in the last three days, going from a "+1 McCain lead in one-day sample" on Friday to an 11-point win for Obama on Tuesday?
Which is -- and I'm sure this is a complete coincidence -- exactly what Gallup predicted yesterday?
[wv] prumstr: n. 1. Like a "pollster," but generating the kinds of predictions you'd expect after ingesting a quart of rum. 2. John Zogby. (archaic: Bill McInturff)
I'm tolerant and accepting of religion, but given that religious beliefs are so varied amongst people, it's a bad idea to have it anywhere near our politcs.
We are a nation of the people, by the people for the people, under god was something that was added by religious funamentalists who sought to inject religion back into government. You may not like to admit it PeteKent, but my right not to believe, is just as strong as your right is to believe.
And what I find so chilling, is the willingness of posters such as yourself to tolerate hate as long as it went against Obama.
You have lied on this site countless times about postions that our candidate has held and never been able to produce evidence to support your claims. You arbitrarily inject "gods will" into discussions that are about the will of the people. You talk about protecting the contsitution, but interpret it in a way that serves your interests. You are not a faithful steward of God, no matter how much you claim to be so. You use religion to divide and not to unite, and its despicable. If you truly were as righteous as you claim you are, you would spend your time trying to defend the rights of all "god's children" not just the ones you deem worthy. You would tell the truth about the candidates positions even if it was not convenient to you.
Multiple times you cut and pasted some partial birth abortion description, and used it as a way to paint Obama as a baby killer for supporting a certain piece of legislation that doesn't even mention late-term abortions in its text. You took a scary story and spread it around to scare people. That's not love of god, that's vanity of self. And if the god that I'd read about did actually exist, I'm sure he wouldn't condone yoru actions. I'm sure he'd want you out helping people to understand their options rather than try to take away their rights.
There is nothing wrong with believing in religion, but its written in the constitution that it does not belong in our laws, nor do our laws belong in your religion, and I'll fight for that just as strongly.
If there has/had been massive voter suppression in CO, would it not have shown up during the early voting period?
If there is a God, I'm sure s/he hates you
Intolerance and ideological bigotry at its best (worst?)!
Blogger Mule Rider said...
"Intolerance and ideological bigotry at its best (worst?)!"
Poor apprehension of facetiousness at its best!
Remember, not everyone is the earnest tool you are. Some of us say things we don't mean, because we don't take morons like you seriously. Don't worry, I can see how you made that mistake -- its totally understandable if you are a complete idiot.
new thread
@RWC,
I hesitate to even respond to you, but I am laughing so hard, and I can actually spell it out, that I simply must:
Yes, 2000 was painful. Thanks for your schadenfreude. But that pain carried with it the seeds of its own redemption. Would we be here, on the eve of a huge shift in American politics, without the disaster of Bush? No.
We will go left. We will go liberal. The country will prosper, and outside of the rabid, frothingmouthed freaking out of the anti-intellectual, anti-liberty, pro-theocracy I'm-a-gonna-make-me-a-fortune-one-day-so-don't-tax-me-now fringe, people will find out that, hey, things are fine. The apocalypse didn't happen.
At least it won't happen because of progressive politics. There's still the mess of peak oil and climate change which will haunt us for a century, and which was made far worse by the know-nothings in both the earlier 2000s and, sadly, even the 1990s. But at least with a government run by those who can accept the actual age of the planet and basic scientific principles as well as humanistic values, we have a fighting chance. With the opposition, we would be in far worse shape.
If you survive the shock that is about to be visited upon you, RWC, then perhaps you will be able to join with a better plan. If you cannot, I hope you bear your inconsequence with grace. You're probably a good fellow when alone with your own kind.
Best wishes to you, from this gun-toting green party libertarian.
Thanks everyone for your poll watches. Here in NY-tristate area they are using the traffic helicopters to film the lines-thats how long they are! Gov Corzine stood in line for over an hour in Hoboken NJ. I am so proud I keep getting choked up. Anyone else in my boat?
BTW McCain will not steal this election, he will lose it fair and square(i have to believe that).
School district in a Democratic Columbus, OH suburb registers voters but forgets to turn in the forms.
link
Oops.
@ aunt karen...said My understanding is that Obama has already had a team of attorneys working on all the caging/suppression/stealing issues for a while now. So, I'm not too concerned. I do hope for such an overwhelming vote that we don't go through another hanging chad episode.
I cosign your statement
I think it's either going to be
a blowout win for Obama/Biden or a
very narrow win for McCain/Palin.
And early voting and turn out are
absolutely key to who will win.
Greater turnout helps the
democratic ticket and early voting
also helps the democratic ticket.
Hopefully the early voting weekend
occurred before the weekend
tightening and before the Reverend
Wright TV ads.
No anxiety today, Relax and enjoy
the day.
Pardon, everyone, I'm about to feed a troll.
PK:
Obama could not win if he did not have support from believers. Of course we're here. We just don't believe what you believe, nor appreciate how you express it.
John McCain is my Love Child! said...
"Your inability to discern the distinction I maintain between piety and sanctimony is hardly surprising.
Don't pray on me.
...If there is a God, I'm sure s/he hates you."
well said, except for the choice of 'hates you'.
I am sure you meant that god would be mortified & embarrassed by Pete's brazen hypocracy & unchristian contempt for all god's children...
There is a special place in hades reserved for those self-righteous bigots who use religion to promote their own personal agendas while disenfranchising 'others'
Honestly: wordy, magnanimous and ever-so-slighly patronizing Pete Kent is just as annoying to me as all-caps methy sockpuppet Pete Kent, and I'm really not convinced they're not the same person.
Either way it's getting the attention it wants.
Voted in NH, in my college town we're all liberals. People were so happy to be waiting in that line for an hour just to be a part of this. Truly amazing.
Afterwards a crazy woman with obama stickers all over her windows pulled over in the middle of traffic to pick me and my friends up.
"OBAMA VOTERS?!"
us: "Yeah!"
"GET IN THE CAR!"
Drove us the 3/4 mile back to campus and gave us some awesome stickers. Glad I'm not a McCain voter... she probably would have run me over.
@pete kent
That guy who spoke up was not a parable, it's from Dietrich Bonhoeffer, protestant pastor, pacifist and anti-fascist, killed by Hitler in Buchenwald. "First they came for the Communists, but I was not a Communist, so I did not speak out. Then they came for the socialists and the Trade Unionists, but I was neither, so I did not speak out. Then they came for the Jews, but I was not a Jew, so I did not speak out. And when they came for me, there was no one left to speak out for me."
Has a kind of prophetic ring, given the messages coming from the Republicans in this campaign, doesn't it?
Petekent speaking out against intolerance, the irony.
People here don't hate you because you are a Christian, we hate you because you are a dirty filthy little troll that astroturfed this forum for weeks. Don't get sanctimonious on us now, you have no credibility.
Voted about an hour ago (~9 AM) in South Bethlehem, Pa. Was the 156 voter in the 4th Ward. I was in and out pretty quickly. The line was much longer an hour earlier (around 8 AM). The line for the polling station where on-campus students vote was unbelievably long (I am sure glad I am registered off-campus).
The volunteering in the area has been incredible. I have received so many phone calls from the Obama people that it has bordered on harassment.
I won't have a difficult time today -- It feels like Christmas! I love the horserace of politics and I have been and will be richly entertained right up to and into the morning on Wednesday.
I have studiously avoided revealing much about myself, but rest assured Pete Kent will be fine -- Obama or Nobama!
Jesus commanded us to go out and teach the ignorant and I suppose that is what I have tried to do here.
To the fellow who suggested that God hates me, please know that if there is one thing that God wants us to know is that God loves us. each of us.
It is with the strength of that love that all things are possible!
Uncle Tom, in Harriet Beecher's Stowe's immortal novel, asked: "Who shall separate us from the Love of Christ?" Though derided by history and viewed as a symbol of cravel obedience to an oppressive culture, to me Tom was a hero, a perfect portrait of he Christian Martyr. He answered that question by bearing the unbearing and affirming to Our Lord, "All I have borne I have borne for thee!"
Thus have I been inspired.
I wish all of you the gift of God's grace that you to shall have within you such inspiration!
PeteKent, read this report from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Cliff Notes: 1-of-6 Americans currently have no religious affiliation, and people moving into the unaffiliated category outnumber those moving out of the unaffiliated group by >3-to-1 margin.
You can believe whatever you want, but don't pretend for a second that the cobwebs and incense of your benighted past prefigure this country's future.
RE: Voter supression article. I know that the issue in CO was resolved and those people WILL be allowed to vote.
CNN did a special the other day that the Obama campaign has sent something like 5000 lawyers to FLA alone to watch the polls and generally keep track of things. This is not 2004 and Barack is NOT John Kerry!
DCM,
Thanks for modulating the tone of my post -- your interpretation was correct. If I had exercised more patience and restraint, I'm sure I would have articulated something similar. Instead I opted for the snide, not-very-serious one-off putdown. Oh well. If that's the biggest mistake I make today, things will be pretty good for me.
PK...
Love the new conciliatory tone. Really makes up for weeks of blathering and cut-and-pasting baseless anti-abortion nutter rants.
Or not.
WV: culto
What I assume PK belongs to.
And don't worry about my soul, PK, I am quite devout.
@Pete Kent
Go read this, it might help you stop posting things about your Constitution that are wrong, so you don't come off as a troll:
The Wall--Separation of church & state
After you have read that and maybe have started some work towards a JD, come back and post some more...
Jeff NYC Dem said...
"PeteKent I am about to hand you your ass in a few paragraphs." (Paraphrase)
Bravo, Jeff. Bravo.
Voice of the Midwest checking in with a complete report...
Indiana is a madhouse as we speak. Voter turnout in traditionally Democratic Lake County and trending Democratic Indianapolis is beyond expectations. Conversely, I am getting reports that the largest precinct in Republican stronghold Hamilton County is "in flow", meaning voters have no wait.
Illinois has high activity in Chicago and north of I-80. Reports from the Quad Cities that machines are hiccuping, but no huge problems.
I have two contacts in Iowa (Ames & Des Moines). Waits ranging from 45 to 70 minutes in Des Moines. Report of challenges by GOP judges of college voters at Iowa State in Ames have been quelled by local election officials.
Minnesota has high turnout in the Twin Cities (1 hour wait, minimum). The Obama GOTV network in the Twin Cities and Franken camp have an "unbelievable program" to this point according to field contact Andrea at U of M.
Ohio is a comparable to a sausage factory, says field contact Scott Andrews in Columbus. His contacts in Cleveland are reporting efforts to challenge all minorities and first time voters by GOP observers. Reports of Democratic observers confronting them is not confirmed. Cincinnati suburban precincts reporting light turnout.
Michigan, again, is reporting record turnout. Details forthcoming (communications problems).
Wisconsin reporting heavy turnout all around. State officials believe a record turnout will happen today.
John McCain is My Love Child,
With you, ignorance knows no bounds. You are sub-human garbage and not worth an ounce of tobacco-flavored saliva in a crack in the sidewalk.
There's no way and no how your ignorant, petty, paranoid, liberal ass will ever understand the joy and peace that is pervasive in my life.
On a sidenote, what's the over/under that Obama, within the first couple of years in office, seeks to eliminate term limits so he can continue on as ruler beyond 8 years.
Mark my words, he's got that on the back of his mind. And make no mistake, he is a dangerous demagogue who seeks to change the entire fabric of this society, much for the worse and not the better.
We would be lucky and fortunate if he turns out to be just a quasi-socialist, populist blend of FDR and LBJ. I pray that's all he is, because this country can survive moderate socialist influence.
But I fear he is far worse. His rhetoric rivals that of Castro and Chavez. Whereas Cuba was once a thriving country in the Caribbean with oodles of promise, it is now a third-rate shit hole of an island that no one wants anything to do with.
I fear that is what is coming for America. Once the bastion of freedom and democracy, sweeping change at the hands of an uber-liberal demagogue will turn us into the overpopulated, poverty-ridden shit hole of the West.
Jesus commanded us to go out and teach the ignorant and I suppose that is what I have tried to do here.
Pete, you are the personification of who I dumped christianity. Arrogant, smug and oblivious, with a hefty helping of hypocrisy. From Falwell to Falujah, you are the gorge inducing distillate, of everything that is wrong with religion
Bradley Jane - thank you. You just made my morning.
@PK Jesus commanded us to go out and teach the ignorant and I suppose that is what I have tried to do here.
Pete, you are the personification of why I dumped christianity. Arrogant, smug and oblivious, with a hefty helping of hypocrisy. From Falwell to Falujah, you are the gorge inducing distillate, of everything that is wrong with religion.
You sure do get scared a lot MR. And I'd love to mark your words, as soon as I get done laughing at you. You are a silly boy, aren't you!
V of M,
Thanks for the update.
PeteKent said ...
I am reminded of the parable about the man who did not speak up when the Nazis came for this one and that one and finally when they came for him, sadly, there was no one left to speak up for him!
Yay!!
Godwin's Law has been invoked!
Don't you know the rules of the internet? That means you've just conceded that you're wrong!
Everyone point and laugh at PeteKent. n00b!!!!! =)
[wv] prock. n. 1. contraction for "pathetic crock." 2. PeteKent's belief system.
There's no way and no how your ignorant, petty, paranoid, liberal ass will ever understand the joy and peace that is pervasive in my life.
Yeah, you just ooze the 'ol peace that passes all understanding. Shouldn't you be out suppressing voters or something?
Pete
As a hindu I send you the love of all my thousand gods. May you find peace in the path of Jesus Christ. And here is praying that you would let us find our peace as well ;)
Mule Rider -- The New John the Baptist crying out on the Wilderness of Obama land! Go man, go!
I too fear the dangerous radicalism of this man that has been concealed from the people. Only by such concealment could he ever hope to win.
All that stands bw us and tryanny is Fox News and the Washingon Times.
Why do trolls like MuleRider jump to the most ridiculous and indefensible form of the argument they are trying to make? Rather than saying, "I still believe in trickle-down economics, so I think McCain's policies would be best," he starts to make absurd claims that Obama will be some Frankenstein's Dictator that we created and can't stop. Honestly, sometimes I want to give the republicans the arguments they are SUPPOSED to make, I'm THAT embarrassed for them.
See PeteKent -- Arun is a perfect example of someone who uses faith the right way. I may not share his beliefs, but I respect him for staying true to the message of his god(s).
Godwin's law was invented by Neo-Nazi's to allow them to come back to power more easily. Those who would raise it are the worst Fascists!
All that stands bw us and tryanny is Fox News and the Washingon Times.
Don't forget Drudge. He is a critical player in the axis of weasel.
The failures of this impending adminstration will lie at the feet of those who willingly cast their unbending and vehement support for Barack Obama.
It was the liberal champion and hero who opined after the 2004 election of President Bush, "They are possibly the dumbest people on the planet..."
How his words ring true, especially today.
I wish there was a sight to post
pictures of this election day around
the country. Does anyone know of a
site that we could upload a visual
record of this day throughout the
country.
G 'O' Go
correction, wrong sight, I meant
'site'.
MuleRider-
'overpopulated povery-ridden shit hole of the West'? Isnt that what Bush has been striving for? DrillDrillDrill, antichoice, bankrupted capitalism, rich above all. Ask the citizens or Galveston how thick the oil is on their beachheads from all those rigs (and they still have yet to see FEMA). Ask all the retirees how those 401k's are faring. Republicanism in this form is dead. Good riddance.
"The failures of this impending adminstration will lie at the feet of those who willingly cast their unbending and vehement support for Barack Obama."
So the failures of the Bush administration lie with you right ? And boy what a long list of failures that is !!!
Bradley Jene,
Riiiight....because no one on the Left has EVER come up with anything ridiculous like asserting the Christian Right is trying the resurrect the Crusades from midieval times or that the Neo-Cons are trying to institute a New World Order to rule the world or that 9/11 was a big conspiracy so that we could occupy Middle Eastern nations and loot and plunder them for more oil.
Yeah, there are never any ridiculous arguments made by people on the Left.
Report from Indianapolis...
Obama is in town and it looks like he is going to do statewide interviews and directly campaign with voters in line at key precincts in Indy. He may play basketball with students at Butler's Hinkle Fieldhouse (A mega-polling place). He plays basketball on Election Day.
He will then go home to be with family in Chicago before the rally in Grant Park in Chicago. One million expected.
Palast is supremely confident it's at least 6 million votes... AT LEAST. And Republican Secretaries of State in Indiana, Colorado and Georgia are the biggest crooks. He said it won't be enough to swing the election, but Obama and the Democrats power to govern will be diminished as a result of state, congressional and senate races Obama and the Democrats won were flipped.
The only way to stop this is if Democratic turnout is staggering, and that voters are equipped to deal with Republican tactics. Palast was clear - Don't accept a provisional ballot. Demand a REAL ballot. They'll eventually give it up. Tell anyone who hasn't voted yet!
Mule Rider -- the difference is that we generally disavow those kind of nuts, your party embraces people like, say, Pat Robertson, who say that 9/11 was a punishment for gays and abortions.
arun,
Never voted for Bush. He's not my responsibility. I take no blame for anything he has done. Sorry, you lose that argument.
vkngmnnj,
You come across as a paranoid idiot.
"See PeteKent -- Arun is a perfect example of someone who uses faith the right way. I may not share his beliefs, but I respect him for staying true to the message of his god(s)."
Actually Jeff I am an agnostic (much to my dear father's chagrin) but I do read hindu philosophy (as long as I can filter out all the god stuff which can be hard). I mentioned the hindu gods because in my experience it irritates the zealots to have that opinion pushed on them. Apparently the irony is lost on them.
"Riiiight....because no one on the Left has EVER come up with anything ridiculous like asserting the Christian Right is trying the resurrect the Crusades from midieval times or that the Neo-Cons are trying to institute a New World Order to rule the world or that 9/11 was a big conspiracy so that we could occupy Middle Eastern nations and loot and plunder them for more oil."
So you are placing your own arguments in line with those ones then? I guess it's good to know where you stand.
Thanks MR.
Just called some voters in Missouri in tribute to you! Consider this your little part to get Barack Obama elected. Congratulations, you've been instrumental in this process.
Now, if only I knew your real name, I could make some donations in it to worthy "leftist" causes.
Dont forget Katrina was punishment for 'the gays' as well.
Jeff NYC Dem,
Not my party. I'm not Republican. I've never voted Republican nor am I registered republican.
I'm a ***-damn independent. Got that?
I certainly don't endorse Pat Robertson, and, while I can't speak for Republicans at large, I find it hard to believe that any significant portion of them do either.
@PK Yeah, there are never any ridiculous arguments made by people on the Left.
Well at least you recognise your posts are absurd. Thats progress!
Then I stand corrected MR. So where do you stand vis-a-vis politics. If I may ask.
Falls Church, VA: voted at 6:15 with about 100 others in line. Things looked well organized, and the line moved briskly. The McCain table in front of the building looked awful lonely.
While I'm an Obama supporter and eager to see him win, I think it's critical that the win come with humility and grace--a characteristic that is generally absent in politics of almost any variety. Make no bones about it: our country is in terrible shape, and this is a pivotal time. We must be able to work together to get things done. We need to be able to listen to each other, appreciate different points of view, and find ways to...um..."git 'r dun." Divisive politics, name calling, and deep seated enmity towards those of other political persuasions must be checked at the door on January 20.
Personally, I think Obama has the potential to do this. For this to work, however, I think it's critical for his supporters not to "rub it in," but rather get to work trying to get this country back on its feet, working WITH conservatives. Heaven knows there are enough people out there that vilify a good man--let's give them no more reasons to. We need to bring the same enthusiasm that we brought to working on the campaign to working on our country. It's not going to be easy or pretty, no one's going to be singing kum-ba-ya, but if tempers and attitudes aren't reoriented, we're not going to get off the starting block.
So, let's celebrate tonight for the possibility of a new direction for this country, rather than for the opportunity for the "libs" to hang one on the "repugs."
Whatever floats your boat. It's YOUR money, and he'll be YOUR leader - and MINE too.
If that's what you truly believe, then go for it, hoss. Don't be disappointed, though, when he fails miserably and this country continues its slide from prosperity into poverty.
Nicely spoken Chris, I'm going to repost that in the newest thread, for you.
arun,
That's a difficult question. I'm mostly have conservative positions, but find myself moderate or centrist leaning on a lot of things.
I'm a fiscal conservative for sure, but slightly progressive on other economic issues.
I want (much) higher taxes on the rich, but I don't like the idea of "handouts" either.
Anyway, my politics are a bit convoluted.
@MuleRider,
Cuba was once ruled by corrupt fascists who invited the US mobsters down for drug and orgy parties. Castro did not happen in a vaccuum.
You fellows are going to see--Obama will win, and every little thing, it's gonna be all right. Don't worry about a thing.
I just feel so damn lighthearted today. It's morning in America again.
--gun-toting greenparty libertarian
muleman-sterile i hope
'parnoia is a heightened sense of awareness'.
BTW, Palast has been proven right every time. He was the first investigative journalist to break the voter fraud in Florida 2000, was the first to expose "caging" in 2004, not to mention electoral fraud in Mexico. He even nailed the 2006 midterms, which were similar to this election. The Democrats were cheated out of a few senate seats. Remember, for a while it looked like the Dems wouldn't even win a majority in the senate. Both the Virginia and Montana races were squeakers for Webb and Tester.
Oh, no Arun, I am inspired by people of all faiths. God is so much greater than we that it would be folly to think we possess fully the revealed wisdom. We must await the coming of the "perfect" as Saint Paul describes in his famous letter to the People of Corinth in which he speaks about the nature of Love.
MuleRider said, "Riiiight....because no one on the Left has EVER come up with anything ridiculous like asserting the Christian Right is trying the resurrect the Crusades from midieval times or that the Neo-Cons are trying to institute a New World Order to rule the world or that 9/11 was a big conspiracy so that we could occupy Middle Eastern nations and loot and plunder them for more oil."
Well, your first two examples are not very much off reality. Bush did use the term "crusade," and a big player in the GOP machine, Ray Sanders, has an office in Jerusalem with a mural of the outside on an inside wall--but in the painting, the Dome of the Rock has been disappeared. Delay and others stand with the Jews only because of end-times prophecy, at which time they expect the Jews to convert or be damned. That's f-ed up, in my worldview.
The Project for the New American Century, a neoCon outfit of which McCain is a member, has exactly the stated imperialist goals you seem to think are so far out there as to be only the product of conspiracy theorists. Yet, they exist.
As to the last, 9/11 is just 9/11. But the huge majority of people who thought Iraq was connected to it didn't come from nowhere. It came from Cheney. It was a lie, and that was the conspiracy. And the goal was the (pre-invasion) proposed 14 permanent military bases in Iraq, necessitated by the fact that we needed to get out of Saudi Arabia because our presence there was destablizing the monarchy (and helping to create pro-Al Qaida sentiment). We had to leave SA while a cooperative government still controlled one of the few remaining elephant fields, but we still needed a place to park the planes and watch Iran.
(Our actions in 1953 are involved with why we have to watch Iran, but it's a longer story--enough to say they don't really hate us for our freedoms; there's a particular reason for it.)
The world is exceedingly complex and I am happy that we're about to elect someone with intellectual experience--a college degree in international relations--to the White House.
I voted in PA today. Go Obama!
@ Mule rider
A fiscal conservative. Finally ! I meet one :) Fiscal conservatives I get. I amy not agree on many things with them but at least a balanced budget and controlled spending does make a lot of sense to me. It is this current marriage of neo-cons/social conservative in the current republican party that I am having a huge problem with.
My own views are very convoluted as well. I have issues with extreme forms of capitalism as well as socialism
PeteKent said:
"To me this puts an Obama win in a context with which I can deal with it: a speedbump along the road of a people aspiring to indeed be His Kingdom."
You wish. Dramatic expansive poetic Sanctimonious Condescension is still Sanctimonious Condescension. Lipstick. On. A. Pig.
Don't pretend to speak for me or know my thoughts and intentions.
And, BTW, don't flatter yourself: this isn't hatred. What is it with the fundies and their persecution complexes?
Mule Rider said:
"I'm a fiscal conservative for sure, but slightly progressive on other economic issues.
I want (much) higher taxes on the rich, but I don't like the idea of "handouts" either."
You sound a lot like Obama. Hey, how come we never see Obama and Mule Rider together at the same time?
I'm interested to know why there are large queues in some polling places. Here in the UK on election day, I think each polling place has a maximum of about 5,000 potential voters. (With a 60% turnout, that would be 3,000 actual voters spread over a 15 hours period, giving an average of 200 per hour).
Does anyone know whether the maximum number of potential voters in some polling places is much larger than this in the United States? If so, that would explain the long lines in some places.
Andy JS - I think the difference is that in the UK, the ballot is short. Vote for your MP, and that's about it. In the US, you vote president, senate, house, state senate, state house, state sec of state (elections chief), school board, public transit board, state initiatives, city initiatives, local party officers, etc. etc. etc.... The max per precinct is around 800 in most states, but that is a lot given how long it takes to vote.
Kick that snake Lieberman out of the DEM caucus, regardless of what it does to the seat count.
What will happen to the seats held by Obama and Biden or McCain? Would they be open for a period of time and how and when will they be filled? The politics of IL, DE and AZ would tend to indicate that these seats will not change party counts. Is there any uncertainty there?
Hate to be dense, but what do the colors of the bars in the chart mean? I am assuming they are just there to make it easier to read?
Or it may be a clue as to where Warren G. Harding buried all his loot. You never know.
So Stevens was 100% assured of losing Alaska, huh?
I was wondering if you could post a Winning Senate Score Card. It would be nice to see it as who won vs your percentages. Plus seeing which races are still contested in one nice little area. Just a thought :-)
David A. said...
So Stevens was 100% assured of losing Alaska, huh?
Yep, Stevens was 100% assured of losing Alaska, and Stevens IS Losing Alaska and Stevens WILL Lose Alaska.....so your point was???
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解,av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av ,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,六合彩,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家公司,中和搬家,台北搬家,板橋搬家,新店搬家,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,交友,越南新娘,婚友社,外籍新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,交友,外籍新娘,視訊聊天,大陸新娘,婚友社,婚友,越南新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,視訊交友,外籍新娘,網路排名,網路排名軟體,網站排名優化大師,關鍵字排名大師,網站排名seo大師,關鍵字行銷專家,關鍵字,seo,關鍵字行銷,網頁排序,網頁排名,關鍵字大師,seo大,自然排名,網站排序,網路行銷創業,汽車借款,汽車借錢,汽車貸款,汽車貸款,拉皮,抽脂,近視雷射,隆乳,隆鼻,變性,雙眼皮,眼袋,牙齒,下巴,植牙,人工植牙,植髮,雷射美容,膠原蛋白,皮膚科,醫學美容,玻尿酸,肉毒桿菌,微晶瓷,電波拉皮,脈衝光,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,英語演講,托福,Toastmaster,
徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 外遇沖開, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信
徵信, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信,徵信網, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵, 徵信公司, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
キャッシング
インプラント
クレジットカード 現金化
ダンボール
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要打工兼差、打工,兼差,八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,便服店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當日領上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有鋼琴酒吧又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表
水水們妳有缺現領、想要兼職、有缺錢的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的賺錢,酒店和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務 幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment