African-American turnout share increased from 11 percent to 13 percent. That doesn't sound like much, but it's about a 20 percent jump among a population that already did turn out in pretty decent numbers. Turnout among registered black voters must have been near universal.
Youth turnout up a point. Latino turnout not up.
Voters who decided late broke about evenly between the two candidates. No evidence of a Bradley Effect -- none whatsoever.
Obama lost whites making less than $50,000 a year -- but by only 4 points. The bigger differences were along educational lines; he lost no-college whites by 18 points.
40 percent of the electorate identified itself as Democrat, 32 percent Republican, roughly in line with the pollster consensus.
The Obama campaign contacted about 50 percent more voters than the McCain campaign.
Obama won union members 61-38.
Obama won 83 percent of Clinton voters.
See here for more.
11.05.2008
A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
@ 1:07 AM
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87 comments
Hopefully first.
Awesome numbers!
no Bradley!!!!
6.11am here in the UK. Time for bed! 538 the last site I shut down before turning the PC off :)
But why so much tighter than the tightest of the polls?
No Bradley effect. Thank God!
And what happened in Georgia?? Or is that just the expected 2-sigma state?
Fantastic work, Nate and Sean.
And Nate Silver won status as pundit deity.
wv: rebliona - one who finds an answer long before everyone else, and leaves them scratching their heads after the fact.
beamman said: But why so much tighter than the tightest of the polls?
All the figures haven't come in from NY and CA, where he's gonna run up the score....
Nth! Thanks for razor-sharp work, Nate!
Kudos, Nate......you've done a great job all these months!
"No evidence of a Bradley Effect -- none whatsoever."
This would make me happy even if I were a McCain supporter.
Nate, you're on xkcd! Now you've really made it!
wv: sansizes: big san, medium san or small san.
Wow Nate...your model was perfect excluding Indiana and Montana.
I hope the next set of simulations moves McCain's chances down to 0%.
:D
So much for the youth vote. I hate my demographic...
WV reses: youth didn't vote cause we all are at reses...
Celebrating the end of 8 years of Bush & Co
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXVZZgZchxc
Nate, your site kept me sane. Thanks.
Nate said:
The Obama campaign contacted about 50 percent more voters than the McCain campaign.
I contacted a whole bunch of them. The office that I principally worked from contacted 61,000 of them!
One was a 97-year-old Virgianian woman who is determined to stick around until she can vote for Mark Warner for President. More power to her. I hope I've got that kind of pep when I'm 97.
A whole bunch were sick of hearing from us, and then an equal number were happy to know that we would help them get to the polls, but thanks very much for calling they didn't need help, they had already voted.
What a week! I love America!
This has been the best night of my political life. Thank you Nate and crew, and the many funny, smart 538posters, who have talked me off quite a few ledges, without even knowing it. There is a lot of work to come, but I think we are up to it.
wv: witie (HAH). Witie is so happy that EVERYONE came through tonight. Cheers!
Advance Votes Not Tallied In Fulton, Gwinnett Counties
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 – updated: 11:29 pm EST November 4, 2008
ATLANTA -- Fulton and Gwinnett Counties failed to include any advance votes in their election totals by 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
Officials at the Secretary of States office confirmed to WSB-TV Channel 2 that the votes were not being included in early returns.
Up to two million votes may be going uncounted.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
Prop 8 is getting closer 52% yes down from 55%. Official results from CA sec of State at http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns/props/59.htm. They update every 10 minutes but their site can be hard to get onto.
wv maryoi as in if Prop 8 goes down people will be able to maryoi as they wish.
Advance Votes Not Tallied In Fulton, Gwinnett Counties
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 – updated: 11:29 pm EST November 4, 2008
ATLANTA -- Fulton and Gwinnett Counties failed to include any advance votes in their election totals by 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
Officials at the Secretary of States office confirmed to WSB-TV Channel 2 that the votes were not being included in early returns.
Up to two million votes may be going uncounted.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
There are ~13,000 votes left for O in MO. That race may get very close. Even though he is down now. He may have the 13,000 to close the gap.
Bradley RIP!!!
GOBAMA!!!
Clay, MO, results out!
Nate! For the love of god, get out there and have some drinks!
Oh, where's Real Joe?
It's looking like 538's numbers are about to be dead on.
Word verification: banancon. "Bananacon" misspelled--the annual Banana Convention.
The death of the "Bradley Effect" is one of the best things that could have happened in this election.
Just about 52% popular vote.
i've refereshed this site 20+ times a day, every day, for the past 11 months.
First time poster.
Thanks for the hard work Nate, Sean and Brett.
Nice to see some folks representing the nerd in all of us, and making it look good.
Blue Team Win!
Palin can cry all the way back to Alaska! With any luck, all the skeletons that have fallen out of her closet as a result of the mean, hateful, racist, divisive campaign she helped run will cause her to lose her 2010 reelection bid! From there she can be relegated to the same trash bin of history that Bush 43 will be thrown into, and only remain an oily stain on American political history.
I'm a white male making less than $50,000 a year who voted for Barack! But I've got a master's degree.
Damn, man, I've got a master's degree, and I'm still not making $50,000 a year. That sucks! I am so looking forward to my tax cut.
A comic strip that represents all the 538 Junkies tonight
http://xkcd.com/500/
if he continues the trend in the St louis county, with some 38k votes there for grab, he may get 23k maybe
if not loosing in Douglas county by large numbers, its upon his reach
It would be a funny coincidence if Obama wins Montana, Omaha, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina and ends up with 379 EV, which is the same number that Clinton got in 1992. A 2nd chance to defeat Reaganism so to say...
It seems that North Carolina goes to a recount. If the NYT map can be trusted there are about 2000 votes left for McCain to gain on Obama. Not enough to give him the state, but to make it extremely close, a 0,2% difference.
Indiana looks slightly better. Obama is winning it.
Missouri looks good for Obama, too. A repetition from the primaries. North Kansas City is still not in completely.
Omaha looks like a stable 2-3 point difference for Obama.
I am not sure about Montana.
bobnsj-
Thanks for the link. CNN has it at 53/47 yes still. The LA county results have me a little concerned.
Lattele. I am freaking out about the Prop 8 results a lattele.
Obama is the man and all you haters and trolls out there need to realize that he is your president. And you know what? He'll do a good job. He will. Great job Nate and everyone at 538. Wonderful hangin with you all.
Popular vote 52-47 with lots of CA to go.
Looks like Nate's popular vote prediction will be close as well as the electoral count.
Thank you Nate, Sean & Brett. I can't express how much this site has meant to me. Great work and we look forward to your future endeavors.
NC goes Obama!!!
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/13221/en/summary.html
No Bradley Effect, but the popular vote seems to be coming out exactly the (RealClearPolitics margin = 7.3 [it ended up 7.6], minus 2.5 = 4.8%) which I predicted in the Huffington contest and in a comment in the maze here. Maybe a little tighter. Which I put down to a differential in pollster response between Dems and Reps.
Statewise, I had IN and MO for McCain, and FL and OH as tossups going barely to McCain. Definitely wrong there. Credit the Obama ground game, IMHO. And hail to the new chief!
Nate and Sean,
Thank you for everything... Another parent led me to your site a couple of months ago.
You also kept me sane --- and hopeful.
You mentioned that African-American turnout of registered voters must have been "near universal." I have some anecdotal evidence for that. I volunteered to drive people to the polls who needed a ride. I was given the address of a woman to go pick up. When I met this African-American woman, she looked like she had been hit by a bus, bloody and swollen. I asked if she had been in an accident. Long story short, I spent the better part of the next two hours trying to convince her to let me take her to a battered women's shelter or at least the hospital. Unfortunately, the only place she would let me take her was to vote. You can't win 'em all. I told her that she deserved a medal for bothering to go vote in her condition. And she said that he would have had to have killed her for her to miss this vote. I think that pretty much confirms the "near universal" theory.
Just from glancing around, almost all the outstanding vote in Minnesota is Franken territory.
Call North Carolina!!
Just over 11,000 votes for Obama:
O - 2,108,777
M - 2,097,531
with all precincts reporting
Thanks for your wonderful work. I'm one of those who lived on this page for the last few months.
What do you do for an encore?
70% of California is still outstanding. That's about a point in the national margin right there, maybe two.
Newark NJ Mayor Cory Booker: "Revel in the racial deliciousness of America"
PeteKent: you are invited to the new reality. Breathe deeply, lick your lips and walk in smiling.
We'll all be better off embracing reality.
and then walk in the real world where MCcain will be president for the next 8 years, michael.
Nate and Sean,
You made a home for all of us. Thank you.
Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.
The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.
No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.
It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.
Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.
I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .
While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.
Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.
Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.
With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.
He must maintain his popularity.
So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.
I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.
Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.
I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.
I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.
A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.
You wind up idealizing such politicians.
It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.
I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!
She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).
This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.
Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.
Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.
Thank you and good night to one and all!
MT looks good for O glancing over the under-reported counties.
MO is a nailbiter for O--could be under 1000 votes.
What is the story on Ohmaha?
These are the nerdy details.
Oh correction... Missouri not looking THAT good. Clay county is in.
I was slightly disappointed by Obama's results in the South. But when I heard that there were not THAT many problems at the polls, I knew that the vote was just shifted to early voting, but not THAT much increased, higher yes, but not a total blowout. So Arizona and Georgia didn't go to Obama because of the minorities.
North Dakota was also a bit disappointing. It joined South Dakota instead of Minnesota. Those were probably the 3 states the pollsters mispolled the most. But since they are so very different, we cannot give one single reason why they did...
Nate's popular vote projection seems to have been spot on...once California is in... Of course, the electoral vote is an average and not a median. And there are a few very close stats that Obama won, while we do not yet have a squeaker state won by McCain.
So while Nate's model might be a little off at first look, it was actually extremely accurate and was only fooled by a few polls that seemed to improve Obama's chances in the 3 states I mentioned, polls that didn't include Ron Paul in Montana, and polls that Obama overperformed as a neighbor of Indiana and Missouri.
" And there are a few very close stats that Obama won, while we do not yet have a squeaker state won by McCain."
The historic GOTV effort at work.
From Peru:
Are you serious? Did you just elected the very opposite of G.Bush...just four years later?
What can I say, yours is an amazing country, the very epitome of what a democracy is (including pros and cons). Thank you for tonight. And thank god i'll be able to finally work tomorrow (instead of recklesly press the refresh button for this site).
truly yours,
a (just) former anti-american
BTW--petekent well said.
lmao they're tripping over words on msnbc, funny tired pundits.
McCain SURGE!!!
Polls TIGHTENING!!!
Haha, I wish I could meet you in real life PeteKent, I still have no idea why you've posted such elaborate screeds for so long on this site.
The only people with the attention span to read them are people intelligent enough to shred them.
So why bother? Unless you believe yourself, but you hardly seem THAT delusional.
A mystery!
@PeteKent
""
I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
""
This will probably be lost in the transition to a new post, but the anonymity of the Internet is the objection I have. If we truly believe in that elephant, why are we not adult enough to exchange ideas about it? Why are we unable to stand up as adults and say what we believe?
Pete, by the way, this is not directed at you. It is directed at all Americans who cannot handle the topic of race intelligently... those who prefer to ignore the elephant.
With that said, I truly believe Obama won in spite of his color, not because of it.
IN, NC to Obama, MO, MT to McCain. 364 EV in total. That's a good start. Maybe in 4 years after everyone calms down and realizes that Obama is not a terrorist or a socialist we might add a few more.
There aren't enough votes left in Missouri to give Obama that state.
Good. I was tired of their freaking bellweather obsession. I'm tired of the word "bellweather."
A pretty obvious remark, but still:
Looking at the election, country-wide, on the basis of counties reveals how profound the (sub)urban/rural divide is. Blueness is essentially a marker of population density.
Not sure how that can be alleviated...
The remaining Montana counties are heavily Republican as well.
Nebraska district 2 (Omaha) looks to have gone for McCain. Preliminary data is linked on the Omaha World Herald site, unfortunately broken down by county instead of district. The district includes Douglas County and part of Sarpy county. Data is at http://www.votedouglascounty.com/meer/EL45.htm
and
http://www.sarpy.com/election/2008/
Douglas County (100% in):
McCain 96,317 : 47.66%
Obama 102,547 : 50.75%
Total ballots: 204,243
Sarpy County (97% in):
McCain 38,443 : 56.83%
Obama 27,663 : 40.89%
Total ballots: 70,447
Ballots in District 2: 51,846
Estimating the Sarpy county fraction that is in district 2 gives McCain a lead of about 8260 votes from that county, more than enough to counter the lead of 6230 votes that Obama has in Douglas county.
I think Obama won in spite of his race as well.
I write my screeds chiefly for my own pleasure, b/c I enjoy language and kid writing these posts good practrice and discipline.
I know I never have the patience to read the long ones, much less react to them.
if only I had the gift for pithiness.
ink
I agree MO looks like McCain.
MO looks bad too.
But it was a good night. I'll take OH & FL & VA & NC all day long.
I meant that MT looks McCain too.
Omaha: Obama has won Douglas County by about 6,400 votes, but lost Sarpy County by 10,800 votes. Since the 2nd CD consists of Douglas County + "the urbanized areas" of Sarpy County (according to Wiki), it's still up in the air. It depends on how much of Sarpy is included, but my guess is he didn't make it. Oh well, maybe next time.
Serbian news mentioned 538
Scroll down past the picture of Barack and Michelle and you'll find some international flattery (or search for '538') - getting shout outs from small far off countries is great news... FOR NATE SILVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"But it was a good night. I'll take OH & FL & VA & NC all day long."
I will too. If only he'd gotten Montana, I would have 100% nailed my prediction :)
I think Franken's got this thing on first count. Most of the outstanding vote is in counties that favor him heavily. But it's got to be a recount.
Brevity is the soul of...
nevermind.
I'm glad you were amused, PK. I was just bored. Many of us grow out of peek-a-boo, what with the development of object constancy and everything. Some of us, namely you, don't.
No bother.
You are not remotely as clever as you think you are. Your vain pretensions to rhapsody leave much to be desired. I'd strongly encourage you to read more -- it will really help you get a grip on language, all the better to cloak your relentless onanism.
You shan't be missed.
How on earth are they not calling Indiana? There aren't enough votes left to pull it our for McCain by my count.
How on earth are they not calling Indiana? There aren't enough votes left to pull it our for McCain by my count.
They just called it as I was typing!
Hit the Monte Carlo mean, here's to hoping NC pushes us up over the median.
Obama wins a mandate, since Bush claimed a win by 2.5% PV was a mandate. I think that the GOP must be nervous over the margins they won by in some states, and of course the gains in the West. Judging by early remarks at this point, it seems that they are adamant in pursuing their ever-rightward course.
The down-tickets were a mixed bag, which also fails to send an unmistakeable message to the Republicans. Musgrave, Pearce, and McCrory failed, but McConnell, Chambliss, and Cornyn held on.
Worst of all, (for me) Bachmann held on and Madia lost. Minnesota failed to gain any House seats for Obama, and by relatively slim margins.
By holding on to the worst of the worst, I fear that the GOP will be emboldened, though they are less powerful on every level. Such is their reasoning.
I would like to thank our excellent hosts for their long hospitality, and also to the many insightful and interesting people that I have had discussions with here for so many months. It is not an exaggeration to say that we have sustained an unprecedented level of discourse here, despite the sporadic efforts of some to disrupt, distract, and demean the conversation.
Puzzling how the beneficiaries of the Bush Katrina behavior went solidly for McCain - did that many move away? Bears a certain similarity to the low-income White vote going for McCain, while the above 200Ks (the ones facing higher taxation) were solidly in favor of Obama.
Re those uncounted votes, I hope this will be pursued. I don't think it's enough to change Georgia, but that's not the point.
Not up!?!???!??! How could you, Nate. Relatively not up. Absolutely, everybody is up.
Yay for us!! (except in FL, AR and AZ). I'm tired. 'night, Nate. THANKS! Miss you. night. zz
Very eloquent, PeteKent :) I'm in the TL;DR club myself so I'm not gonna fault you on length. I've enjoyed your presence here while not always agreeing :)
And Nate, gratz on getting the numbers so very very close to exactly right ;) I've put my faith in your intelligence the last few weeks... and I've argued against naysayers among my acquaintances who said that no matter what you do to poll statistics, they're still just lies... and I'm glad to see that my faith was vindicated ;) You'll be writing your own ticket now, and I'll be proud to say I read your blog when you were a sprout.
Juan Williams is such a tool - this morning on NPR he said that black turnout was NOT huge, then said that they went from 11% to 13%. First of all, what did he expect - 20% of the vote to come from 11% of the population? Second of all, African-Americans managed to increase their share even as overall turnout went up, what, 20%?
I was pretty sure that Williams was being stupid; thanks for confirming it, Nate.
And thanks for everything this cycle. You showed what intelligence and dedication can accomplish. Congratulations.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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