Over at Newsweek, I have an hour-by-hour preview of what to watch for tomorrow night:
7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.Lots more over that way...
Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we're really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain's favor.
Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.
On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire—closer than any current polls—we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect.
By the way, just to make this clear: although I will be doing some hits on set for Dan Rather and HDNet (where we should have a very interesting panel with folks ranging from Dahlia Lithwick to Todd Harris to Donnie Fowler) there will also be plenty of downtime when I will be liveblogging. We'll have new threads going up every 20 minutes or so covering every last detail of how we're seeing the evening unfold.
Basically, the idea is that I'll have an electoral map updated in real time ... not just including those states that have officially been called by the networks, but also my informed opinion about how the rest of the states are going to be impacted by what we're learning in real time. More about this later on.
344 comments
The disconnect between reality and what all the wingnuts have driven themselves into a frenzy believing is truly amazing.
It's simply not possible for a candidate who is +7.5 the day before an election to lose.
It's not Dewey vs. Truman. We're not dealing with a couple of polls that ended a week before the election. We're dealing with a dozen or more concurrent polls going up to the last moment, and all of them but one (IBD) has Obama polling >50%.
It's over. Sorry, but it's over. You guys can give the concern trolling and paranoid conspiracy theorizing a rest now. Save your energy. You'll need it to get through tomorrow.
"Basically, the idea is that I'll have an electoral map updated in real time ... not just including those states that have officially been called by the networks, but also my informed opinion about how the rest of the states are going to be impacted by what we're learning in real time."
Thank goodness. I don't have cable TV and none of my friends are planning to watch the returns, so it looks like it'll be me, my computer, Nate and a bucket of popcorn (I'm holding off on the booze till I'm confident we've won.)
I don't know if someone else has suggested this (or if Nate will read this far down in the comments!) but it would be great if you wrote some about what the impact would be of an early Obama win on the east coast for the polls (and downticket races, initiatives, etc.) in the West.
When this has happened in the past, has it favored the winning presidential party's downticket candidates or the loser's? What would be the impact on turnout in voting on Prop 8 and other high-stakes initiatives?
If this question has been addressed already on 538 or elsewhere on the web, please point me to it!
Great Newsweek article, Nate. I've bookmarked it and will be spending a lot of time with it.
To those who do not believe there is a coordinated effort by conservatives and Republicans to hinder the vote, remember arch-conservative Paul Weyrich's famous quote at a conservative convention:
"I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."
THINK ABOUT THIS QUOTE...call someone who may not vote, take them to the polls, talk to your friends kids and get them out for sure.
We cannot afford anything less than a mandate for change punctuated by higher participation in the voting process.
MATT J. H.: I agree with your sentiment, but you can't say that. Things are not over until they are over, and we can't relax until the polls close all over. It's not over yet. Soon, but not yet. Keep going.
But you're right in that there is too much worry going on. What we see is normal poll tightening. If you feel nervous, then go out and do something. Go to Barack's site, get some phone numbers to call, and dial people. Go down to the local group. Do something. Don't fret, there is no reason.
Are there any more polls expected today?
mammoth, the only thing left for republicans is to call Obama a word that rhymes with bigger.
Because terrorist, socialist, marxist, communist and neo nazi hasn't quite worked well enough. Oh yeah almost forgot, he's been called the anti-christ as well.
Why is everyone dissing WV these days? I know it's the US version of Moldova, but c'mon.
Obama's safety has been paramount in this campaign. His ability to be out in public and hold massive rallies and still be safe is due to incredibly good work by the Secret Service.
Starting tomorrow night, that security will increase; he, like all presidents, will have more protection and vastly less exposure to any threats (won't be out in the public in large crowds very much any more).
Webb was ex-military, nothing like Obama at all. If Obasma were he, then I'd be certain Obama was going to win the Old Dominion.
FWIW, confusion over the intent of California's Proposition 8 is probably more likely to swing it towards "No" (i.e., protecting gay marriage) than "Yes". Voters tend to vote "No" on any ballot initiative if they don't understand what it entails.
I ran my pencil’s prediction (10.000 times it was sooo hard... ) and I got this:
#1-outside any reasonable doubt(100% ) :
- Kerry States (252) +VA+IA+CO+NM+NV = 291EV
----further scenarios----
#2-triunf (60%)-# 1+ FL + OH + NC =353 EV
#3-landslide (25%)-# 2 +IN + MO =375 EV
#4-tsunami-(10%)-# 3 + GA = 390 EV
#5-apocalypse (5%) # 4 + MT + ND + AZ =406 EV
@Michael
"I ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got: McCain 281-Obama 257"
Could you explain the "re-weighting" that resulted in PA being 2.3-3.6% towards Obama, yet being given to McCain?
Because to me it looks like you simply fiddled with the numbers until you got a scenario that you liked. Specifically, it looks like you took Obama's underperformance wrt the polls in the Democratic primaries and applied that wholesale as a "correction" to the current polls.
The fact that you did this "calculation" on a computer is irrelevant: dishonesty is the same no matter what your tool is.
I also like this bit of rationalization: "Many pundits on both sides of the aisle admit that if these white voters haven’t gotten behind Obama after his 2 year campaign, they likely won’t in the next 24 hours." Never mind that McCain's been running since 2000.
(And what's with the royal "We" on your site? Grandiose much?)
CBS tracking poll...
O: 51
M: 43
Big drop for Obama from +13 yesterday, but when you're ahead by that much there's nowhere but down I guess.
This is an example of where the number of people actively doing GOTV is affecting the number of people able to be polled.
bobby, I hear you--I sent Obama some more money the other night--but realistically, you know where it's at now.
CloudyFuture said...
"This morning scarborough and buchanan were saying that they can see Obama getting 53% of the pop and still not getting enough electoral votes....but eh....guess we will see."
Yeah Scarborough and Buchanan still think that Palin is fantastic too. I take what they say with a grain of salt.
wv: enropla-- the disease from which Buchanan and Scarborough suffer. They are loyal to the GOP to a fault.
@alexander
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
wow - just wow!
Bush was +0.9 in WI!!!
@bex:
(Becky Sharpe if there were a prize on here for the best wvs, you would WIN it.)
thanks! love you too!
nogress: progress 2000-2008
Former Virginia governor Douglas Wilder has said he is concerned that Virginia may run out of paper ballots before everyone has voted tomorrow.
I cannot imagine all the activity at the polls is a sign that voters are excited about keeping Republican practices with McCain and Palin.
The turnout at the polls is to get the crap out of politics. Hopefully the country will be purged of the bogus "Christian" right that uses deceit, lies, and hate to practice their "faith."
Why is everyone dissing WV these days? I know it's the US version of Moldova, but c'mon.
Dude WV = WORD VERIFICATION...LOL
On Wednesday, I fully expect Michael to show up with a new simulation that "corrects" the vote totals for alleged fraud and suppression of the Bradley Effect by media bias to demonstrate that McCain actually won.
Ben said:
It is actually possible to get 22.5% of the popular vote and win the election.
It’s also possible to win the popular vote and lose every state, but I wouldn’t count on either scenario.
Nate listed in Crain Chicago's 40 under 40:
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/mag/article.pl?articleId=30886
Guys, I've been at this site since the beginning. As long as anyone and right now I am supremely confident. Arrogant even.
Obama has an unfettered path to 291. Kerry/Gore plus CO/NV/VA. According to the "GOLD" standard poll (NBC/WSJ) Obama supporters are rabid, dog-crazy savages. McCain's are "Warm."
I can't believe the fretting among some people. Our guy has a lead outside the margin of error to 291. We can lose PA/FL/OH and still win the Presidency!
I can't believe how good our situation is. PRESIDENT OBAMA. I like the sound of it.
"Try again dumbass. You were wrong. You made a fool of yourself. Go back to your hole and cry."
The level of vituperation here is unbelieveable.
Not only do I hope that Obama loses, but that all of you are deeply invested in his win on InTrade!
"It’s also possible to win the popular vote and lose every state, but I wouldn’t count on either scenario."
How??
Probability of next Secretary of State
Richardson 45%
H Clinton 25%
Rice 15% (12% under Obama, 3% under McCain)
Powell 10%
Other 5%
menunda: oooh!
@Kurt
I just meant a final "this is my prediction" prediction
Dewey wasn´t up by 7 points before the election.
CBS tracking poll is O + 9
O: 51
M: 42
NOT
O: 51
M: 43
Concern trolls are disgusting human beings.
"Great Newsweek article, Nate. I've bookmarked it and will be spending a lot of time with it."
No doubt behind a locked bathroom door!
WVer: ingst -- the feeling of disquiet that comes over Obama supporters when McCain wins IN by Bush-like proportions.
I usually don't like to talk in absolutes but Obama is going to win. Of course this is completely irrespective of Michael's hard work re-jigging the poll numbers on his Commodore 64.
Webb was ex-military, nothing like Obama at all. If Obasma were he, then I'd be certain Obama was going to win the Old Dominion.
Hence the five percent ding vis-a-vis Webb, moron. It's still a fifteen point win amongst 1/7th of the state's voters. BHO will not drop below 56% in Fairfax County on higher volume. He will do better in Richmond by about the same he'll do worse in Norfolk/Newport News. He'll do better in South Side thanks to GOTV in AA populations. That adds up to a win.
You're still a dumbass.
"To those who do not believe there is a coordinated effort by conservatives and Republicans to hinder the vote, remember arch-conservative Paul Weyrich's famous quote at a conservative convention:"
This is reprinted from a Kos article entiled "What to Expect in St. Louis", but it can easily apply to Cleveland, Philly, Miami and others as well:
The City of St. Louis has a population that's roughly 50% African-American. Like African-American populations elsewhere, they tend to vote heavily Democratic. For what it's worth, the rest of the city also votes heavily Democratic. You can bet your life that come Tuesday, voters are going to line up at every polling place in town. And that's the problem.
Republicans know very well that the turnout in St. Louis (and Kansas City) can swing the outcome of every election in Missouri, so they have a well practiced and time-honored game plan.
First, there won't be enough machines. Neighboring counties will have plenty, St. Louis County will be tight, St. Louis City will be woefully short. It's that way every cycle, it'll be that way this time.
Second, Republican poll workers and monitors will be late to arrive. This tactical heel-dragging will help slow the opening of some polling stations, and ensure that those trying to vote before work face frustrations and delays.
Third, Republicans will challenge voters. Not voters of whom they're suspicious, mind you, lots of voters. Particularly older voters who they think seem confused, or voters who already seem steamed about the delays. The goal here is to slow the process as much as possible, so that when voters are coming in to vote after work, the lines are stupendous. This process will continue right up until 7PM, when the polls close.
At that point, there will be thousands of people still in line in the city and county. The local Democratic Party will rush to a judge before the polls close, and get an injunction keeping some polling stations open longer to accommodate the overflow crowds. They'll get the injunction.
The Republicans will be roughly 3.2 seconds behind them, relaying this injunction to an appellate judge. This judge, whether appointed by the Bush administration or the Blunt administration in Missouri, will happily order the polls closed.
Polling places will then be left to interpret these rulings amid a sea of confusion. Close the doors immediately? Let everyone already in line vote but block any more people getting in line? Keep the polls going until they're forcibly shut down? All three options will be exercised, often within a few blocks of each other.
At the end of the night, there will be thousands of St. Louisans who didn't get to vote.
CBS news has Davis saying that "He’s [Obama] underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We’re over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he’s not getting the Democratic vote and we’re getting more than our share of the Republican vote...."
What of this?
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/11/03/politics/fromtheroad/entry4566914.shtml
Dewey wasn´t up by 7 points before the election.
That was also.... 60 f*ing years ago when there was 1 f*ing pollster that did it by f*ing mail.
There have been about 3X more polls done in the last 48 hours than were done in all of nineteen-forty-f*in-eight.
What would Jesus do?
HUH!
He wouldn't want all these liberals runin around making homsexals and diseases!
And how about guns!
It aint American to get rid of guns now or ever!
If a liberal comes into my house to rob my stuff and to make my son a gay, what do ya think?
NO OBAMA BIN LADEN!~!
THE HILLS will empty and the MAC is back!!!
Guys!!!! According to Nate's scenario analysis, there is currently a 0.00% that McCain loses the popular vote by >=3% and wins the election. Simmer down now.
The level of vituperation here is unbelieveable.
It's only outdone by your level of self-deluded ignorance. Go away idiot. You don't get to make shit up without someone calling you on it. Piss off.
Nate,
I think you are overemphasizing (or at least misclassifying) Virginia when you say that he needs it to win in a noncircuitous (is that a word?) route.. If you look at your map, you will see that the Kerry states + Iowa + NM + Nevada + Colorado are all more blue than virginia. And those states alone get Obama to his magic number. Therefore, Obama does not need Virginia, and I would instead classify Colorado as the most probably tipping point statw.
You are the expert, but I would have classified VA as the gate or doorway to a rout, not the win. See, if Obama loses VA, there is still a strong possibility that he still wins, what with the states I mentioned above still tilting strongly in his favor. However, if he wins Virginia, the rout scenario is still alive. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and even Missouri are on the table if Obama wins Virginia. If he does not win virginia, I think we will probably have a nailbiter for Obama. In that sense, Virginia will be a great indicator of whether this race will be more '96 or '00.
Anyway, I love your site. keep on keepin on.
CBS news has Davis saying that "He’s [Obama] underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We’re over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he’s not getting the Democratic vote and we’re getting more than our share of the Republican vote...."
Rick Davis = Lanny Davis in the primaries... it's a Davis thing.
" neoplatonic said...
CBS news has Davis saying that "He’s [Obama] underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We’re over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he’s not getting the Democratic vote and we’re getting more than our share of the Republican vote...."
What of this?
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/11/03/politics/fromtheroad/entry45"
and, yet, somehow all the polls have Obama up big in the state. Hmm... Methinks I sense some spin.
@pa john
>>That was also.... 60 f*ing years ago when there was 1 f*ing pollster that did it by f*ing mail.
Hilarious. Reminds me of that Onion archive News-Paper they did a couple of weeks back
craggel: how McCain negotiates
neoplatonic, Davis is a douchebag. What do you expect other than disinformation from a McCain scumbag?
I like this timeline my Google News popped up for me. By 10:00pm CST (8:00pm PST) Obama will go over 270 EVs and be declared President-elect.
chearca: This should chearca you up.
neoplatonic-
He's lying? Did you think of that? :-P
Mason, you are problably not quite 25 years old so i will make some allownaces, but repeatedly calling someone you are trying to have a debate with "moron" or "dumbass" does nothing to advance your argument. Next thing you know you will be referring to me as "that one"!
OK, I'm a Brit who's been living in the US these past couple of years and am completely enthralled by this election.
I have a tiny feeling in my water that this is going to be HUGE - what should I look for as the first indications of an impending Obama landslide? - I'm not sure how the timetable pans out. (Virginia being called early for Obama? KY being too close to call?)
"Next thing you know you will be referring to me as "that one"!"
Right, and you'd NEVER support someone who would stoop to that level, right?
Rick Davis has taken to flat out lying is what I make of it.
Hey- After reading some of these dopey 'reweighting' comments I just want to say that not all us Michael's are created equal. Now back to phoning MO.
p.s. Someone asked about more polls today- yes, more high-quality PPP's.
/mbw
Mason, I believe that the last WaPo poll of Northern VA showed Obama to hold a 2:1 edge over McCain. It was *better* than how Webb and Kaine did.
Conventional wisdom is that Democrats need to do a 60 - 40 split or better in NoVA to win Virginia.
petekent, how much do you make as a freeptard? Something tells me you will qualify for the Obama tax cut.
Pa John, are you nervous?
Nate, you got Prop 8 backwards twice!
You said:
"The status of the race, however, could have a potential impact on California's Proposition 8, which seeks to protect the legal status of same-sex marriage. If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote against Prop 8."
But Prop 8 seeks to *destroy* the legal status of same-sex marriage, and the crestfallen conservatives are probably voting for it (though of course a true conservative position would be to limit government's meddling in the lives of couples). You have to fix this!
Another Updated Poll Pool
I took all current 13 national polls in RCP and computed the results considering it one grand poll (all participants put together) which amounts to giving each poll a weight proportional to its number of participants (thus minimizing the overall MOE). RCP gives each poll the same weight regardless of the number of participants. Here are my results:
Number of participants: 18,071
Obama Percentage: 52.15% (MOE=0.74%)
McCain Percentage: 44.36% (MOE=0.74%)
Obama ahead of McCain by: 7.79% (MOE<1.49%)
The second line shows that Obama's margin above 50% is a statistical certainty. The last line shows that his leading McCain by more than 3 points is a statistical certainty.
It's not clear to me what people think Rick Davis can say. I mean the guy has to think beyond tomorrow as well. If he came on and said, "Yeah, it's hopeless, we all know that," it might make everyone feel good, but it won't do much for his future earning potential.
It doesn't matter what Rick Davis, Sean Hannity OR Keith Olbermann says. It's out of their hands now.
Just do what you have to do, and all will be fine. What you have to do does not include squandering precious energy on hand-wringing.
yeah pa john, are you nervous about all these polls showing Obama opening up his lead?
PeteKent: Well at least you've released the caps lock and are making some effort to convince us instead of just ranting.
Listen Pete - until earlier this year, I will admit, I was not impressed with Obama. I heard little bits of him talking and had convinced myself that his "great communicator" reputations was way overblown. On
Super Tuesday I voted against Obama. When, at the end of the evening, it began to dawn on me that Obama was likely to be the nominee, I clicked on a youtube of his speech that night and listened to it from beginning to end. I had been avoiding actually listening to Obama - like you avoid watching people you like when they go on Colbert or the Daily Show - I was certain I was going to be uncomfortably disappointed.
But what I heard in that speech was something I didn't expect - extraordinary intelligence and extraordinary temperament. It was at that moment that I realized that Obama is the way out of the mess this country is mired in.
Pete - you can lie to us when answer this question - but you can't lie to yourself:
Have you listened to a complete Barack Obama speech all the way through?
If Obama wins tomorrow night, it might be time to do that. You're convinced that he's a fraud, but if he wins, you'll have failed to convince the electorate and although you'll no doubt still oppose him, you might want listen directly to this man and see who he is when the filter of preconceived opinions about him is removed.
There's an old saying, Pete: "Know your enemy". After (painfully) reading about 1,000 posts from you, I can say, with absolute certainty, that you don't.
There's something going on here, and you don't know what it is - do you - Mr. Kent?
FOX News Poll: Obama Leads Going Into Election Day
With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain -- 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters.
At the end of October, Obama led by 47-44 percent among likely voters, and by 49-40 percent about ten days ago (Oct 20-21). The last time McCain led was immediately following the Republican Convention when he had a 45-42 percent edge (September 8-9 among registered voters).
Attention All Concern Trolls:
Here's the one thing to watch for. Without it, there is no reason for concern--none.
Be concerned if and only if McCain changes his election night plans to include his attendance. The man is an attention whore. He's not going to his own party. He knows it's over and he has all of the info.
Peat-
27. I don't care about advancing my argument against you. It's not worth it. All I have to do is put the numbers out there and they speak for themselves and debunk any bullshit you attempt to spew. You're so logically inconsistient that you debate yourself for God's sake:
"IT's a good thing it will rain in PA because it will hold down the Philly vote, but don't worry, McCain's same day vote in Carolina [where there is a higher chance of rain] will overwhem the [at least] 65% of the electorate that has already voted. It's a good thing he's winning them in a poll that shows he's behind on the top line."
It's enough to make my head explode. Do you actually read what you type?
" mirrormirror said...
OK, I'm a Brit who's been living in the US these past couple of years and am completely enthralled by this election.
I have a tiny feeling in my water that this is going to be HUGE - what should I look for as the first indications of an impending Obama landslide? - I'm not sure how the timetable pans out. (Virginia being called early for Obama? KY being too close to call?)"
I'll be watching Indiana... and "a tiny feeling in my water" is a cool expression!
Hmmm, I think some of these 50/50 states like MO and NC will provide a nearly definitive verdict on the value of ground game in US politics.
Could McCain have gone any farther out of his way to avoid grassroots organizing? Doubtful.
Could any campaign devote more energy to organizing than Obama's? Again, doubtful.
I realize that I'm assuming Dem Likely Voters are a priori as likely to show as Rep Likely Voters. (Is that a fair assumption?) But should be very interesting!
uma, how dare you re-jig the poll numbers michael worked so hard to skew for McCain using his sharp pocket calculator.
I'm digging this kid's song "vote for barack obama - sounds like a 2 year old singing!
RE: "Ohio 49-49 Tie
Florida 49-50 McCain +1
North Carolina 49-50 McCain +1
Virginia 51-47 Obama +4
Colorado 51-47 Obama +4
Missouri 49-49 Tie"
Rasmussen is a non cellphone pollster who is under weighting Dems. I think you can add about 3 to each of those numbers for Obama.
But most importantly: Obama doesn't actually need any of those states to win. McCain needs to win all five them to even have a chance.
Jack said...
I guess everyone can label me negative, but I live in Leesburg, VA, and I have never been more sure of an election outcome than I have of this one: McCain will unfortunately win Virginia.
Well everyone, throw out all the polls and modeling. Jack has a "feeling" :)
Bill Nelson (D-FL) says Obama will win Florida by 4 points.Says the Obama ground game is unbelievable and far ahead of Bushes 4 years ago.
Cab you say:
PRESIDENT OBAMA?
For Rasmussen, McCain is winning among hispanics in FL by a small margin.
That´s true?
neoplatonic said...
CBS news has Davis saying that "He’s [Obama] underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We’re over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he’s not getting the Democratic vote and we’re getting more than our share of the Republican vote...."
What of this?
++++++++++++++++++
davis also said that their internal polling has them up in NV, NM, MO, FL, NC, OH, GA, VA, and IA (yes IA).....I think I would sense some spin as well.....
BTW holy cow the 527 are out in force I have yet to see one mccain ad since fri night....However I have seen TONS and I mean TONS of 527 ads ranging from the wright one and just right now a national security one about Obama is to afraid to use the US military and will make the counrty unsafe....sheesh....
becky
"menunda oooh!"
Is that a femanist oooh for "men unda", or a flirty "me nuda"?
crade - abreviation of "crude and degraded" These WV's are too honest.
Hey Jack,
Say goodnight Virginia.
Obama '08
A friend of mine does poll consulting and analysis for CBS. She has a PhD in political science, is a tenured professor at UConn, and has studied voter behavior for upwards of 15 years. Personally, I feel quite safe in assuming that she and all of these other professional pollsters know what they're doing, and that all this anti-poll nonsense being spewed by various wingnut bloggers and conservative pundits is, well, just that.
SP-
Sorry. I might not have been clear. I was talking about Fairfax County.
59/40 was what Webb did in Fairfax.
73/26 in Arlington.
71/28 in Alex.
71/28 in Falls Church.
Even (+-1%) in Manassas, PW County, Loudon.
If McCain is ahead with Florida latino's it's because of the damned Cubans. Otherwise he's toast.
PPP Indiana
O: 49
M: 48
A: Rick Davis is a liar. As Axelrod put it, (and I'm paraphrasing), you have to rally your troops when morale is down. If Davis can't convince Republicans that McCain has a chance, a lot of them will just stay home.
Also, in regard to Davis saying that Obama is underperforming Kerry everywhere except Philadelphia...A., he's most likely lying, and B., what he's not point out is that Obama is VASTLY outperforming Kerry in Philadelphia, which compensates for anywhere he may be underperforming Kerry, and then some.
"For Rasmussen, McCain is winning among hispanics in FL by a small margin. That´s true?"
It's true that Mc will do better among Fl hispanics than he will in other parts of the country (because of conservative Cubans). But PPP's poll last night showed O winning hispanics in FL 55-42.
newsinOH said...
Attention All Concern Trolls:
Be concerned if and only if McCain changes his election night plans to include his attendance.
###############
Do you think He's going to "suspend his campaign" yet again and join senator Obama in Chicago "as americans" ?
wow !!!!
Looks like you only half-fixed the Prop 8 issue... it still says that conservatives would vote against it.
Strategic Vision (R) just released a poll showing Obama +7 in PA!
So 2 non-partisan polls are not finding McCain within 2 points in PA, VA, or CO...In fact, there have been none!
Admit it Nate, McCain has no better than 1% chance of pulling this out.
Oh, and McCain is -11 in Gallup's LV model with half a day remaining in the campaign!
Hi all,
Just wondered if anyone knows whether the american networks are available on the net?
The BBC coverage last time was excellent, but they don't show running county and state totals as the US ones do (or so i'm led to believe).
Failing that, i guess i'll be on 538.com all night...
GOBAMA!! We need our "cousins" to be a force for good in the world, again!
Is that PPP poll of Indiana accurate? Somebody should forward it to Scarborough.
Real Clear Politics had Obama with 311 electoral votes yesterday, 291 this morning, and now 278. What is going on? Nate, reassure me!
Seriously, Matador-
Who gives their victory speech from the lawn outside of the Ballroom?
Read between the lines. He knows he's lost. They're just attacking Obama to reduce his ability to govern.
Dario: It could be.
Lots of older Cubans are Republicans because they believe the Democrat=Socialist nonsense.
Obama still hasn't sealed the deal. He should be at about 95% by now +/- 0.627%
uk obama fan
I think you can find streaming coverage from several networks (try CNN and NBC, to name two). But you can also try New York Times Online and Washington Post Online.
Oh, and C-Span of course!
It's just been announced that John McCain will not address the audience at his rally in Arizona once the winner is known. Instead he will "speak outside to journalists".
STRANGE????????????????????????????????????????????????
erinnyc, with no toss-up Obama is 322-200 in RCP.
I've lurked on this website for 6 weeks now and though it put me to sleep some times, it also kept me awake much longer than is good for me.
I'll be glad when this is over tomorrow.
I would like to thanks Nate cum suis for running this website and the all commentators for keeping the discussions alive.
I'd like to close with my prediction for tomorrow:
I believe Obama is going to win between 286 (kerry + VA + NM + CO + IA)and 406 (+ FL + GA + NC + OH + IN + MO + ND + MT + NV + AZ) EV's.
Regarding Florida Hispanic population: The last thing I read about it said that the population has undergone substantial changes, and only 1/3 of the hispanic voters are conservative Cubans. The rest are either from other countries, or younger generation Cuban Americans, who tend to vote more like Hispanic voters in other parts of the country.
But not all cubans are republicans.
The central-americans are democrats (Dominicans, etc) like mexicans.
Nate!
Make sure you get PLENTY of SLEEP tonight!
Although I don't know how you can.. the excitement is nearly palpable now.
>>Is that a femanist oooh for "men unda", or a flirty "me nuda"?
neither:
It was flirty "men under" as in physical proximity
but we digress...!
hothedst: why McCain lost
erinnyc, I'm not Nate but you do realize that if Obama were to lose every single tossup on RCP he would still be President Elect Obama?
Needless to say, he's not losing all of the tossups, probably going to win a majority of them. But again, he doesn't need the=m.
A question from across the pond...
Estimates vary but it looks like upwards of 85% of African American likely voters are for Obama.
Why do African Americans specifically lean towards the Democrats? - or is it just that they are voting based on the candidates race or colour? ...which would of course be a racist thing to do...
Ir's not intended to be a troll question - I'm just interested given the focus there's beeen on hidden racial bias amongst white voters.
Aunt Karen said...
uk obama fan
I think you can find streaming coverage from several networks (try CNN and NBC, to name two). But you can also try New York Times Online and Washington Post Online.
Oh, and C-Span of course!
THANKS A LOT! Will have a browse...
Correction my upper estimate has to be 1 EV higher (NE-2), making it 407.
Mason said...
Seriously, Matador-
Who gives their victory speech from the lawn outside of the Ballroom?
Read between the lines. He knows he's lost. They're just attacking Obama to reduce his ability to govern.
November 3, 2008 3:24 PM
#############
:)
"Why do African Americans specifically lean towards the Democrats?"
Because the Republicans opposed the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and other landmark civil rights bills of the late 20th century, while Democrats supported them.
All I can see is that McC must be toast. Because NO-ONE is fretting about PA on this thread. Eric hasn't had to come out ONCE to explain why PA is going blue. PA was McC's last hope.
Incidentally, as a Brit I am amazed that it seems that people will be calling states while voting is still open somewhere in the country. In the UK it is actually illegal to make any statement that suggests you know which way the voting is going while the polling stations are still open for business, because it could influence how people vote or whether they vote at all.
Before the Civil Rights Act, did those few African Americans who were able to vote split their votes equally between the parties, or did they favour one of them in particular?
paul, this is purely conjecture but I think AA's vote democrat because of the Civil Rights act of 1964. Republicans argue that they actually passed the bill since democrats alone didn't have enough votes to pass the bill. It's a good thing Abe Lincoln isn't around to see this.
@Mrs B
Consider the geographic breadth of the US. There is indeed some grumbling in the western states when the election is called early.
In France, opinion polls are banned for the final 2 weeks of the election campaign, in case they have an unfair influence on the result.
Paul-
I'll leave the "Why" to someone more politic than I am.
A few things about your numbers though:
85% would be a "generic" Democratic Candidate. It's probably going to be more like 95%.
For what it's worth, Michael Steele, an African-American GOP canidate for a Maryland US Senate seat in 2006 won about 25% of the vote. His opponent, a white man won 74%.
Obama will win VA solely on the strength of AA turnout. If it materializes he wins, otherwise he will lose. Too much of No VA is dependent upon the defense establishment. These are high information voters who know that Obama is bad for their jobs.
PeteKent, it just can't be said enough. You are a f'ing idiot.
NoVA is going huge for Obama. Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax will be deep blue. If Prince William and Loudoun go for Obama too, it's over. Even if they don't, as long as it's close, which it should be, Obama is the favorite.
TWO new threads
Obama's grandmother has passsed.
@PeteKent...
Yes, we noticed you, young man.
Now, please take the pencils out of your nose, take your seat and stop barking in class.
Barack Obama's grandmother died today.
How does that affect the election?
Latest early voting figures from Georgia:
Total early voting, 2008 - 2,020,839
Total votes, 2004 - 3,301,875
Percentage of 2004 already cast - 61.2%
If Obama doesn't win the election (according to the final "results"), it will be because eligible voters were deprived of their right to vote and/or their votes weren't counted, through calculated and partisan voter suppression and vote manipulation efforts. There's a sickening amount of evidence that such efforts are taking place this year, just like in 2000 and 2004.
Please make sure that everyone has the number for the free Election Protection hotline and brings the # with them when they go to vote:
1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)
This hotline is run by the largest non-partisan Election Protection coalition in the country.
You can also email them at: help@866ourvote.org
or via text message through Twitter.
More info at http://www.866ourvote.org
If you have a voting issue at your polling place, document it before you leave (e.g., cell phone video, photos, names of witnesses, etc.)
For additional information on voting problems and election protection, go to:
http://truth.voteforchange.com
http://www.MLandman.com/resourcelinks/obama.html
http://www.videothevote.org (to document election problems)
http://sites.google.com/site/protecttheelection2008/
http://www.nomorestolenelections.com
Sadly, we can't really call our country a democracy if our election system can be (and is) rigged.
@other michael
...don't they think you can wait a few hours???
@pete kent
nice to see you rather than the over-capitalized sock puppet. Can you tell me, do these GOP voters that are coming out of the forests have transport? Because if not, I doubt they are going to make it all the way to the nearest polling station in time.
Quick question, MSNBC is streaming there coverage on line at the moment. On election night are they showing NBCs coverage on MSNBC or is it MSNBCs own coverage? (NBC could be good coverage to watch if poss in the UK? Think personally I might cope with the BBC though!)
O dear god. Obama's grandmother has just passed away. Our prayers are with you Senator. What awful timing and how sad. Fight on tho...we want to give you this victory!
SurveyUSA has McCain up 49 to 48 in NC. Interestingly, they have AA turnout at 20%. It was 26% in 2004. Oops!
obama's grandmother has passed away.
"In the UK it is actually illegal to make any statement that suggests you know which way the voting is going while the polling stations are still open for business, because it could influence how people vote or whether they vote at all."
Would be hard to make it illegal here without changing the constitution. 1st amendment and all that
Andy JS said...
Before the Civil Rights Act, did those few African Americans who were able to vote split their votes equally between the parties, or did they favour one of them in particular?
Directly following the civil war, African Americans were republican loyalists. Party of lincoln and what not...
Then FDR recruited a large percentage of the African American population into the Democratic Party through his New Deal legislation. Later, Truman would integrate the federal service, thus ingratiating an even greater number of African Americans to the Democratic Party.
But Kennedy cemented it
Bleut: John McCain bluet his chances.
I'm sorry to hear the news about Obama's grandmother.
Oh, I am heartsick about Obama's grandmother.
I was just thinking of her earlier today and hoping she would see tomorrow.
Obama's grandmother has just died - via the BBC. It's on the Guardian ticker.
God bless you Toot
Jack said...
"I guess everyone can label me negative, but I live in Leesburg, VA, and I have never been more sure of an election outcome than I have of this one: McCain will unfortunately win Virginia. He will win it by a few points. And if Nate is right that Virginia is that important, than we are in for a long and potentially disappointing night. And if THAT is true, then one will legitimately have to wonder a LOT about Nate's algorithms, numbers, and everything one uses to point out for a long time how Obama has a greater than 90% chance of winning this. Frankly, reading Nate's post here, one wonders if it's the same Nate who rights the very positive outlooks for Obama's chances. I wish it was not true, but McCain will win Virginia and win it by a surprising margin."
Nate is wrong about all his statistics and outlook because you have a feeling about the election???
Do you have ANY evidence at all for this? You offer none. Just more boring assertions. Try making an argument and offer evidence to support it instead.
Obviously, the polls closing is good news... for John McCain... and his golf game.
Christ. I know they have to prop themselves up so their shaky voters feel motivated to go vote, but do the RePunkLicans have to live in fantasyland all the time? I mean, let's look at what we know.
1- Obama out raised and outspent McCain by large margins. I dunno that an outspent/outraised guy has ever won an election (exception: Al Gore, but we know how that worked out).
2- Obama has the far superior ground game. I cannot imagine they are gonna fold in the last 72 hours and I cannot imagine that the base will suddenly get excited in the last 72 hours for McCain when they haven't really cared for three months, and probably six months before that. And who was the last candidate with a far inferior ground game to win the election (excluding Al Gore, as we know that story).
3- Polling. They have a margin of error. Can they all exceed their margin of error in one direction? Doubtful. Even when you work through their methodology flaws, they are as likely to be wrong in Obama's favor as much as McCain's.
It's all over but the voting and the crying. And all the RePunkliTrolls can claim McCain victory all they want, it's not gonna change the YouthSurge, the AfricanAmericanSurge, the FakeVA Surge and the WhiteCarpetbagger Surge (Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada... They aren't all gonna be Obama's, but enough of them are to render the RedState BlueState OneState TwoState argument moot.
It will be fun to watch the returns. Then we can deal with four years of conservative radio complaining every time Obama sneezes.
AsIOnDi: A fantasy involving the late Princess Di or a tasteless comment on Operation Linebacker.
Very sad news about Obama's grandmother. Hopefully she and her daughter can enjoy Obama's voctory together. (Sorry if that offends any atheists!)
Oh, I so hoped she would see him win. That's just heart breaking.
Michael said...
"I ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got: MVRed.com Prediction: McCain 281-Obama 257"
Please, please, please come back Wednesday so we can laugh at you for your moronic attempts at StaDtizdics. Anyone can re-weight polls to make them say anyone will win.
Thanks for the answers.. Gives me
a better perspective on things. Would hate to see him get in for all the wrong reasons.... ;-)
Condolences for his gran... :-(
markymark, I'm not offended, I'm amused that people still believe in things like god and heaven, it's almost like people believing in McCain winning the election. :-)
This election night plan amused me: http://www.bigfatwhale.com/archives/bfw_381.htm
Coal is not going to be a motivator for a McCain victory in Virginia -- although McCain's position on embracing coal is a complete hypocritical flip-flop from years of being on the right side of theissue in the Senate. The fact is there just aren't that many people dependent on coal in Virginia.
Virginia final: Obama 51.2, McCain 47.5. That's the pro McCain estimate.
The other one is this. Obama's hard work and great ground game + massive turnout from AA voters adds up to a full 6% more than the underfunded inept campaign of Jim Webb received when he bested Maccaca-Man. 56% for Obama.
1) Jack is out of his mind. Northern Virginia is bluer than blue, from at least Manassas to Arlington, and from Great Falls to the Occoquan and probably beyond. All us fake Virginians. :-)
2) The GOTV effort for Obama is in full swing tonight. At midnight, their plan is to put GOTV literature on every door in the region. At five a.m., a second sweep to make sure that everyone got covered. During the day, checks to make sure that people who said they were supporting Obama had voted, and if not, offers to drive them to their polling place. This is a level of thoroughness that's unprecedented. Meanwhile, nothing from the McCain side but robocalls.
Tonight, for the first time ever, I'm going out to do something for a political campaign, in the hope that my contribution helps in some small way. So if you're awake at midnight, think of me, slipping from door to door, getting out the vote...
you are the light of my day. thank you!!!
"It’s also possible to win the popular vote and lose every state, but I wouldn’t count on either scenario."
How??
loose every state by 1,000, win DC by 51,000
Nate, I hope you're preparing the site to get hit with HUGE traffic tomorrow!
Maybe a super-streamlined front page?
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