Over at Newsweek, I have an hour-by-hour preview of what to watch for tomorrow night:
7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.Lots more over that way...
Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we're really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain's favor.
Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.
On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire—closer than any current polls—we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect.
By the way, just to make this clear: although I will be doing some hits on set for Dan Rather and HDNet (where we should have a very interesting panel with folks ranging from Dahlia Lithwick to Todd Harris to Donnie Fowler) there will also be plenty of downtime when I will be liveblogging. We'll have new threads going up every 20 minutes or so covering every last detail of how we're seeing the evening unfold.
Basically, the idea is that I'll have an electoral map updated in real time ... not just including those states that have officially been called by the networks, but also my informed opinion about how the rest of the states are going to be impacted by what we're learning in real time. More about this later on.
344 comments
Excellent!
McCain is going to win the election and it is just going to prove all the pollsters and pundits like the liberal Nate Silver are liars and thieves and have tried to throw the election to the socialist Obama.
Too bad the American people are too smart for that.
Out here in MST, things start a bit too early to have a good party going. What network will everyone be watching election night?
wv- 'suedista' A fiery latin american woman passionate about voting.
Not first :(
Here's to fake Virginia!
"we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect."
No. no. no. you did not open that door again, please!
wv: fradon. fradon Wednesday, I'll have a celebratory hangover!
Nate live blogging the election, momma is very proud!
She thinks it is so cute whne you call them "hits." Her boy in TV!
Message to McCain:
The 'socialism' card worked way better than the 'ayers' card, and that's because...
"It's the economy, stupid!"
But you did it too little, way too late.
Viva Obama.
Ya, the Bradley Effect comment really jumped out, are you disagreeing with yourself? Don't trust your own analysis?
Please don't pull a Zogby!
The Voice of the Hills
I wonder how much airplay Obama’s comment about bankrupting coal companies with crushing carbon taxes is going to suppress his support in the SW part of VA that remains coal country? With massive turnout expected do not think it only from the Hood -- it will come from the Hills as well.
Color VA Red!
NATE!
"If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote against Prop 8."
should be
"If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote for Prop 8."
Prop 8 needs to be passed in order for Marraige to be "protected".
petekent makes his first good point, EVER! WV is gone, and this will hurt in VA.
"The key area to watch in Montana is Washoe County (Reno)"
Hmm.
Quick note:
In the closing paragraph, you mention "California's Proposition 8, which seeks to protect the legal status of same-sex marriage." Prop 8, in fact, seeks to undermine the legal status of same-sex marriage.
The first two states to close their polls are Kentucky and Indiana:
It's pretty obvious that Indiana will not be called immediately, because the exit polls there are not going to give it to either candidate by 10% or more. It'll be put in the "too close to call" category.
The interesting question is what happens with Kentucky. If McCain is doing anything like as well as he needs to, he'll want it to be called immediately for himself. If Kentucky is also put in the TCTC category it means McCain is in trouble.
That'll probably be the first thing to look out for on election night.
More people live in the hood (and fake Virginia) than in the hills, PK.
Nate, you got your description of Prop 8 entirely wrong.
California's Prop 8 seeks to REMOVE the legal status of same-sex marriage, and conservatives are going to vote FOR it.
I truly believe the result of that vote will have very little correlation with how people feel about it, given how many people think Yes is a vote to protect same-sex marriage. If something like that goes on to effect basic human rights for the next couple of decades, it would be a disaster.
I thought New York closed at 9pm, no?
Here in Australia it is 6.36am Tuesday November 4. Election day!
Also, Melbourne Cup Day and the date believed to be the one which will see the execution of the Bali bombers, under cover of the US election to minimise fallout.
And my sister's birthday. I will not be able to blog any further today but you all should know that I will be thinking of you and hoping that for the sake of us all, Barack Obama wins this election.
Good luck and God bless.
What is hilarious about the silly coal argument is that it is a moot point.
You cannot get financing for a coal fired power plant anymore without a thorough plan on how to handle the pollution, this is not because of regulation, but the financiers fear of consequences, hence the market has taken care of the problem.
Totally off topic but RCPs poll selection while often suspect is especially so in the Minnesota Senate Race. They include a Mason Dison poll that concluded on 10/28 but exclude a Minnesota Public Radio poll concluding on the same day (the MPR poll did begin three days earlier). Perhaps even stranger is the exclusion of a PPP poll that began and finished after the NBC poll. Also odd is the inclusion of the Minnesota Senate Daily Kos poll which RCP excludes from it's national average. I really wish they would disclose their algorithm for poll inclusion (assuming there is one).
Obama is really pulling a Gore/Kerry by not clarifying his comments on the cap and trade legislation. If he loses tomorrow, he has nothing to blame but his complacency.
Thank you, Nate, for passing all of this on to us! I think your approach is one of the most informed approaches out there, and I'm looking forward to what you have to add tomorrow evening.
Did Pete Kent just call NoVa "the hood"?
Did I read that right?
WV: sporisp - SPitting Opportunities with Runners In Scoring Position
Nate,
Tremendous thanks. You will help make the night endurable for those of us who will likely repeatedly shift from nail biting to tears of joy in 0-3 seconds.
The real time map sounds great. Any way you can make it differentiate, by state, the differing opinions about it (e.g., yours vs polls vs exit polls vs pundits, etc)?
Again, thanks for all the great work.
wv: reommati - the feeling in my stomach as election night unfolds
Any analysis of the IDP/TIPP poll? Why is their national tracking poll so much tighter?
Were they the most accurate poll as Rove stated?
McCain is going to win! The polls are all wrong! Every darn one! Amazing these brits are...
Now British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not.
It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it.
There is some evidence of mistakes among US pollsters. Every poll has a margin of error, to take into account the fact that a limited sample has been consulted. But the website fivethirtyeight.com has shown that during the primaries there was on average a 2.3 per cent pollster-introduced error, caused by poor methodology. This is not the case in Britain.
The second, widely canvassed, reason why the polls could be wrong is known as the Bradley Effect. In 1982 exit polls showed the African American Tom Bradley to be on course for victory as Governor of California. He lost. It is argued that voters had refused to support him because of his race but didn’t want to tell a pollster. Could this happen to Obama?
The Bradley Effect is talked about as if it were incontrovertible but it is only a theory. One of Bradley’s campaign team pointed out recently that the same exit polls that predicted victory for Bradley also projected that the white Democrat Jerry Brown would be elected US Senator.
And he lost too. These two question marks over the polls are ones that McCain can cling to as the campaign comes to a conclusion. They are not, however, the only reason to doubt the pollsters.
The other ones suggest that the pollsters may be underestimating, not overestimating, Obama.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5068612.ece
Excellent stuff as usual. I saw a guide like this somewhere else (nypost.com?) but the analysis was second rate, so I hoped Nate would do one.
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
Huge crush on Dahlia. Give her a hug for me. ;)
WV: fledeb -- McCain is gonna fledeb building like his hair is on fire.
There won't be a Bradley Effect. There are two things that most polls aren't taking into account: they are under-representing young voters (read the separate discussion of cell phones vs landlines) and they are not taking any account of the two campaigns' comparative strength on the ground. The Democrats have the strongest GOTV organization that we've ever seen, and the Republicans have scaled theirs way back -- but the polls are assuming the two organizations are going to be equally effective. If that assumption is right, there's no point to having an election-day organization.
From my political organizer days, I remember that putting good volunteers into an area can add 10-15% to your vote total in that area. I think that's still true. Whatever the effectiveness of GOTV efforts, it isn't zero, but that's what the polls are assuming.
I'm predicting Obama 393, McCain 145. And I think that, if anything, that's too cautious. This smells like a historic landslide, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama over 400.
How did I get 393? All the states Kerry won plus CO, FL, GA, IA, IN, MO, ND, NV, NM, NC, OH, and VA.
New York does close at 9pm eastern as far as I know.
Polls Close: KY and IN
IN and KY both have early poll closings. If Obama underperforms in IN and if McConnell is re-elected easily in KY it may be evidence of poorly predictive polling and a false Obama bias.
They tend to hold the urban vote in and around Gary, Indiana until the last second, so don't be fooled by big early McCain leads. Still if McCain holds IN at +5 or more it may indicate a heartland problem for Obama and foretell a loss in OH which has lot more Appalachian voters who can be expected to vote at least 70-30 against Obama.
I'm voting in NY tomorrow (no early voting here). Polls open at 6:00 am and close at 9:00 pm.
Virginia is only the most important state IF you think McCain has a chance of flipping Pennsylvania.
If, as expected, he loses PA, then Colorado becomes the key state. Kerry + IA + NM + CO = 273.
If VA is too close to call early, CO will be called later and that will give Obama more than enough to win.
VA becomes important if McCain somehow wins PA. Then Obama needs to hold at least VA + CO + NV to compensate. (That's 270 EV).
Of course, Florida or North Carolina might easily be declared before Virginia. Virginia's polling is horribly antiquated. They aren't used to being a battleground state. Florida has put a LOT more money into modernizing it's election process since 2000, so things will probably go a lot more smoothly than in VA.
Ohio should be much better too, since they have learned the lesson of 2004 and have installed a lot more voting machines. Plus, they have early voting so some people have already voted. That will take some of the strain off.
Same thing here in CO where over 1/2 have already voted.
Mason said...
Did Pete Kent just call NoVa "the hood"?
LOL
Real time map updates are GREAT NEWS FOR 538 NERDS!!!
wv: retarta, as in PK is one.
Surprisingly, New York and Rhode Island seem to be the only states where the polls stay open until 9pm. Here in the United Kingdom the polls are open until 10pm all over the country.
Having the polls open from 6am - 6pm in places like Indiana seems a bit strange. It doesn't give people any time to vote after work.
Why, oh why, do people continue to believe that Hilary Clinton *upset* Obama in the NH primary? Go back to the polls taken prior to Iowa -- all of them showed a huge Clinton lead. Iowa had a nutty effect on one poll (Rasmussen?) on the Saturday between the two. If someone had told me two days before Iowa that Obama would have ended up in NH with the percentage that he *did* receive, I would have thought "hey, cool!" Go back and look.
Nate! in your 10 pm EST paragraph you state that Montana's Washoe county will be important. I hope you mean Nevada's. I would add that Douglas county could be a real bell-weather in NV also. If it's even remotely close there something went horribly wrong for Republicans.
They tend to hold the urban vote in and around Gary, Indiana until the last second, so don't be fooled by big early McCain leads.
Being urban and being on CST may have something to do with that, dumbass.
NoVa is the '7-0-3' not the 'hood' get your Fake Virginia terminology right.
Check yo-self before you wreck yo-self!
Excellent article. Looking forward to the liveblogging for sure.
wv: chake. Is Nate Silver gonna have to chake a *****?
Why do you have Georgia as a "Safe GOP" state while others have it as a toss up? What is different in your model from what others are seeing?
WOOHOO!
The major firms who do daily, national "tracking" polls on the presidential race are now all out with their election eve estimates of where things stand:
• Gallup says Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain 53%-42% in its "traditional" gauge of likely voters, an identical 53%-42% in its "expanded" look at likely voters (which includes more first-timers) and 53%-40% among registered voters.
• Rasmussen Reports puts Obama ahead 52%-46% among likely voters.
• Diageo/Hotline says Obama leads 50%-45% among likely voters.
• Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has Obama ahead 51%-44% among likely voters.
• George Washington University/Battleground gives Obama a 50%-44% lead among likely voters.
• Daily Kos/Research 2000 says Obama leads 51%-45% among likely voters.
SOME IN & KY polls close at 6 ET, but since others close at 7, neither state will be called before then.
Tallied votes will be shown, but in IN, if Obama wins, it will be only clear after NW area (around Chicago) closes, and they will tilt Obama. Also there might be long lines there, so tallying may be so.
Expect IN to be too close to call for several hours. If KY is too close to call, then we'll know something. (Same with SC, which also closes at 7)
538 on c/Net...
...here
This brings a whole meaning to KY smear:
http://joemygod.blogspot.com/search/label/Mitch%20McConnell
@justsomeguy,
Re the article in The Times - it's owned by Murdoch, which gives you one clue.
Second, the "spiral of silence" thing doesn't really apply in the US, where most polling is done by robocalls. There's no evidence that people are ashamed to admit that they're conservatives to a machine.
And the coy reference to "less fashionable party" means conservatives, and it's always been true, even when Thatcher was at the height of her alleged popularity.
K-
I'm so fake I've got a 571. Check it. Yeah. Rock steady.
Interesting question from brian j about Georgia. In fact, Georgia is the one state I'm most uncertain about. It could end up being anything from Obama by 2% to McCain by 10%.
Do the new Fox/Ras polls take into account the early voting?
Nate, yours is not a site that promotes patience as a virtue. I am endlessly impressed.
I guess everyone can label me negative, but I live in Leesburg, VA, and I have never been more sure of an election outcome than I have of this one: McCain will unfortunately win Virginia. He will win it by a few points. And if Nate is right that Virginia is that important, than we are in for a long and potentially disappointing night. And if THAT is true, then one will legitimately have to wonder a LOT about Nate's algorithms, numbers, and everything one uses to point out for a long time how Obama has a greater than 90% chance of winning this. Frankly, reading Nate's post here, one wonders if it's the same Nate who rights the very positive outlooks for Obama's chances. I wish it was not true, but McCain will win Virginia and win it by a surprising margin.
One of the things on my wishlist for 2009:
Any and all federal money to Alaska is cut off since their governor just despises pork.
Hi Nate,
I emailed 538dotcom with an amazing play-at-home election night spread sheet that my sister created which would help viewers keep track of all of the races. Hope you like it!
-Allison
Thanks, Nate. Your hard work is greatly appreciated.
Nate Silver is the creator of FiveThirtyEight.com, a popular political blog.
Define 'popular'. J/k.
PS no one cares about cap and trade, certainly not enough to impact what happens tomorrow.
I've read from a reputable source that the networks can call a state like Kentucky even if there is still part of the state voting if the exit polls show a clear winner.
I agree that they shouldn't actually do this. They should really always wait until all the polling places are closed in the state in question.
571 area code is for REALLY fake Virginians like me. It is either a cell phone or a number post 2004.
So you will not get a call from a pollster nor will you "really count, if you like" according to Nancy Pfotenhauer.
No we don't, Jack.
We file it under GIGO and call it a night.
Yeesh, Obama has a huge lead in the polls today, and people are still wringing their hands.
McCain can't win without PA and VA, and he can't win PA and VA. It's just not possible for so many different polls to be so wrong for an entire month.
Stick a fork in it, and look forward to all the spluttering and disbelief on Fox tomorrow night.
We really won't know about the Bradley effect ever.
What I think we may see are two factors coalescing:
One, the racialization of the campaign has made it unfashionable to profess support for McCain for fear of being branded a racist. Bear in mind that 45% of the electorate is normally not disposed to vote for any Democrat at the top of the ticket, least of all one who has been tagged with the Socialist brush and has made insulting comments about working class white people. I could go on . . . This is why there is a hidden vote for McCain. And there exists a similar one for Palin, especially among married white working class women who find her and her messy family fascinating and welcoming.
Two, we now see evidence of massive voter interest in the election that will sweep 75% of registered voters to the polls. We are certain that AAs and movement liberals, including the young are highly motivated to vote, but what we don’t know is how motivated white working class voters will be. Are they willing to come out and oppose a candidate who is culturally so alien to their own life experiences?
The working class white voter, particularly on the distaff side appears to hold the key to this election.
There might be some interesting bloc voting in this election after all!
People worried about Tim Kaine for VA Governor in 2005. How did that turn out? Oh, yeah, short-list for VP. And Mark Warner, running for Senate now? Slam Dunk!!!
badgerhair-
I thought the entire article was a bad joke, I posted for its fun value. That said, the repubs might be planting this crap to steal the election...is that too paranoid?
I think we'll get clues much earlier than that.
IN closes at 6:00 and the margins there if Obama doesn't win can be indicative.
Rasmussen's numbers today have the race too close for comfort.
Ohio 49-49 Tie
Florida 49-50 McCain +1
North Carolina 49-50 McCain +1
Virginia 51-47 Obama +4
Colorado 51-47 Obama +4
Missouri 49-49 Tie
Rasmussen has a bunch of new polls basically all tied in NC, MO, FL,OHIO and Obama leading by 4 in CO and VA.
It`s feasable for either Obama or McCain to sweep all of these but more likely Obama with his better ground game plus rasmussen has a slight republican tilt.
It is possible that Obama could win the popular vote by 10 million and somehow lose the electoral college, that would be real democracy in action.
Follow the adventures of Alaska's superhero team...
HOCKEY MOM and FIRST DUDE!
http://hockemomfirstdude.blogspot.com
I am curious about Fox / Ras polls and early voting too. I haven't seen the details, but their article has NO mention of early voting, even in the states that allow it.
Does anyone know the answer to the question about whether their polls today include early voting totals and what those results showed (if it did)?
Also, on Virginia, I just can't imagine it will be called until well into the evening EVEN IF OBAMA WINS IT.
The heaviest volume precincts will come in later in the evening, and no one is going to want to call anything tomorrow until it is crystal clear that the votes will follow through, especially with heavy turnout and early voting. NO ONE is going to want to be wrong.
I also think there is a very strong possibility that polls won't be closing on time anywhere tomorrow. Expect lots of incidents of poll line-ups at the presumed closing of polls with emergency orders to hold polls open until everyone in line is able to vote.
I wouldn't be surprised if every state except Indiana still has polls open at 10 or 11 pm Eastern Time.
Seriously. I just think it is quite possible that it will turn out that way due to the turnout and the lack of preparedness for such a turnout across the board.
depends on how you view an upset, i suppose. obama was up big in the polls the day before the New Hampshire primary but Clinton was up big just days before that. i.e. the polls were much more volatile so the final result shouldn't come as too much of a surprise:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls
"I wonder how much airplay Obama’s comment about bankrupting coal companies with crushing carbon taxes is going to suppress his support in the SW part of VA that remains coal country?" (PeteKent)
If McCain has to go to this card with a day to go in order to hold states Bush won, then he is done. He may win WV, but VA is gone for Obama.
Pete, you are stuck on the same narrative the GOP has been using since 1968 - one part culture war, one part deception of the white middle class and poor that Democrats want to take their job, gun, and Bible away.
It has not worked because the GOP took their job to Mexico, their kids to Iraq, and cannot reconcile their beliefs with anything Jesus Christ actually believed.
Obama +7.35% in popular vote and steady at 3 PM EDT.
John McCain has to campaign in Indiana one day out.
Barack Obama is leading on the question of the economy (+20) and taxes (+8).
PeteKent...it ain't looking pretty for McCain.
Follow the adventures of Alaska's superhero team...
HOCKEY MOM and FIRST DUDE!
http://hockeymomfirstdude.blogspot.com
I've been thinking/sharing that if Obama's heritage and coolness is disrupting the polling data in ways that folks talk about as possibilities, than maybe he would lose all of the eastern swing-states plus PA, but then win GA, and the election with 272 ev.
IN too close to call at 6.00 will be enough for me
nudgent: Ted winks
Nate-I'm surprised that MSNBC didn't snatch you up for commentary on Election night.
wv: mattlim
"Mary Mattlim's not going to be very happy on November 5th!"
Those Ras polls are painful, but we still have Kerry plus IA, NM, VA, CO.
i'mma be on here, hannity.com, puma.com, kkk.com and watching fox news all at the same time
obama beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeitch!
wv=ounsted Norwegian word that basically means you are gone, ousted.
Having read what you are doing here tomorrow Nate I don't think I need to go anywhere else for my election news.
What will I do with the hours that I have spent on this election come 6th November?
gotv...if ras makes you nervous sign up at the barack obama website...
me personally, those numbers are in line with RAS the whole month. Missouri, NC will be close. Florida BO takes easily. Ohio is not a worry. Colorado is not a worry.
Off topic: Anyone know how much sleep on average the candidates have been getting for the past year?
Okay let me try this for the third time...
The Bradley Affect doesn't exist anymore. That was 25 years ago. A lot has changed since then. We should not even be talking about it.
Nate and viewers,
You might find my election night county-by-county extrapolations useful:
http://www.distantconstellation.com/elections
These are handy when the state totals have included (for example) many rural counties but the big urban counties are still behind. I take the previous election results (2004) and extrapolate the current margins in each county to the final estimated totals.
Please help spread the word.
EFFECT!!!
fred,
Far too paranoid.
The conventional British view is that US opinion polls are even less accurate than ours because of all sorts of unstated prejudices and the fact that the US elections are all hopelessly corrupt with massive voter registration nonsense in every state and vote stealing being the norm. That this view is somewhat distorted is neither here nor there: it simply informs the perspective from which a lot of UK coverage is written.
The only British papers which expect to be read by people in the US are the FT and the Economist.
Becky, from what I've seen, at least at the local level, is that the Obama campaign's approach is "You can sleep when you're dead." You can contrast that to Brett's photos of McCain offices closing at 5 and draw your own conclusions.
Anyone worried by the Ras state polls, remember, McCain MUST win either PA or Co and Va. No signs that either of those is going to happen.
So Fox and Ras both have national polls showing Obama with a large lead, but together they put out state polls that are almost all dead heats. Something doesn't seem right.
I'm sorry, but the Ras polls look good to me.
Four-point leads in VA and CO is big. And more than enough.
Obama is not going to win every swing state, but he will pull out at least one of OH, MO, NC and FL.
I predict he will win NC and OH.
If PA (and/or similar) swings to McCain on Election day with Obama still leading in the PA (and/or similar) polls: The post hoc verdict by the experts will be that we can still see such an 'Effect' at the presidential-, but not the sub-presidential-, level because the vote for president is seen (at some level) by the voter as the most reflective of the voter's self. That is, it's personal.
newsinOH said...
One of the things on my wishlist for 2009:
Any and all federal money to Alaska is cut off since their governor just despises pork.
Losing a very senior senator and very senior representative will drastically reduce their pork-snarfing powers, so you'll get at least some of your wish.
Peeking from Behind the Curtain
The Hood in VA is Richmond, capital of the Old South and a majority black city.
Obama will win VA solely on the strength of AA turnout. If it materializes he wins, otherwise he will lose. Too much of No VA is dependent upon the defense establishment. These are high information voters who know that Obama is bad for their jobs.
The parts of the state that have heavy military populations are unlikely to provide a margin of victory for Obama there.
Obama's white base is old unmarried men, hiding behind their lace curtains on Monument Avenue. Precious few and in short supply.
Still, the national polls predict a rout. Something must fall and fall hard for Obama. It can't be that all his votes are in NY and CA.
IBD/TIPP
O 47.5
M 43.0
wv: revitiso : ibd monday is a revitiso of ibd last friday.
Andy -
Networks can do whatever they want with exit polls. They all however as a matter of policy don't call a state until all polls close.
They do often drop hints (you can actually get hints other ways- expect the "change" vs "experience" results around 3:30-4 tomorrow), and Fox often is the most aggressive, but for actually calling, it is against policy.
I just checked the Rasmussen crosstabs for their swing state polls:
Virginia
White Voters
M-59, O-40
Non White Voters (Mostly Black)
O-84, M-16
Missouri
White Voters
M-52, O-46
Non White Voters (Mostly Black)
O-82, M-15
Florida
White Voters
M-58, O-41
Hispanic
M-52, O-48
"Other" (Mostly Black)
O-79, M-21
It looks to me like McCain is about to get hit by a big Reverse Bradley effect in a lot of these swing states.
The most annoying thing about the BRADLEEE AFFCECTomgomgomg is that it has its genesis in a pollster screwing up his sample, getting a race wrong, and making up this BRADLEEE AFFCECTomgomgomg to cover his ass. So lame.
"The Bradley Affect doesn't exist anymore. That was 25 years ago. A lot has changed since then. We should not even be talking about it."
The reason PeteKent pulls out the Bradley Effect is his need to cling to the same 25 year old racist, sexist, and nationalist narrative that has made the GOP a southern, white male party.
Keep on keepin' on Pete and the GOP may be reduced to the Wallace Dixiecrat coalition of Alabama and Mississippi by 2012.
Evolve your party's message to that beyond a Rush Limbaugh rant, Pete. It is the only answer.
Joe- 571 is so much harder to gang sign than 703 though
http://img184.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fakevafakegangac5.jpg
As per the last post, I am a LTL FTR (though I suppose it should be LTL FTW, that's not as cool.) Nate, you rock. Thank you for the intelligent, well-informed analysis.
Please do a polling update again so Obama's most likely EV total goes higher than 311!
WV: comeriat
Off topic, but WOW!
General Motors' October U.S. sales plunged 45 percent and Ford's dropped 30 percent, as low consumer confidence and tight credit combined to scare customers away from showrooms.
The results released Monday _ along with a 23 percent drop at Toyota and a 25 percent decline at Honda _ are strong indications that sales for the industry as a whole may perhaps be the worst in 25 years.
IBD/TIPP
O 47.5
M 43.0
Ha! IBD too! They are all panicking and converging on 538's number on the final day!
gallup is the only poll with balls
It´s possible win by 7 points the popular vote (RCP average) and lost the EC?.
I don´t think so.
CBS tracking poll...
O: 51
M: 43
Big drop for Obama from +13 yesterday, but when you're ahead by that much there's nowhere but down I guess.
Indiana cannot be declared until 7:00. 3 counties don't close until 7, including the infamous Lake County, home of the most Obama supporters for any county in Indiana.
If Indiana gets declared for Obama a little after 7:00, Obama doesn't need Virginia any more.
Let's compare Rasmussen's FL to PPP's florida, where black voters are O-93, M-6, which seems more realistic. Also, I think Rasmussen's Hispanic numbers for McCain are too high
IBD/TIPP poll:
Obama 47.5
McCain 43.0
This is the closest national poll, and it still has Obama up 4.5 points.
Yiannis reports on Ras and the battlegrounds:
Ohio 49-49 Tie
Florida 49-50 McCain +1
North Carolina 49-50 McCain +1
Virginia 51-47 Obama +4
Colorado 51-47 Obama +4
Missouri 49-49 Tie
What I have read in the PPP polling is that McCain has large leads among the population that has not voted. If we see a massive upsurge in turnout, as many are now predicting 75% (up from a base of about 50%), McCain could easily overwhelm the banked votes Obama has already. His folks have voted early, McCain's have not. They also live in less densely populated areas so long lines at the polls are not likely to be a problem, like in Cleveland.
Don't worry about Philly -- the rain will keep the crowds away!
Folks,
Looking over Nate's comments again, those aren't the words of someone who has provided analysis that there is a 90+% chance of Obama winning. The Ras numbers should scare the crap out of us. Winning the popular vote and losing the EC because those red states do what they normally do is a DISTINCT and increasingly likely possibility. The signs that Obama has pulled in the white voters he needs just aren't out there. In fact, in a lot of polling, it looks like McCain is scooping them up. Is it possible that we are going to see the impossible happen? Sadly, I'm beginning to think so. Shame on all of us if we again lied ourselves into believing that we could not possibly loose the unloosable election.
Really guys, the fact that we're talking about staying up late and relying on Virginia are not signs of a party that has a 94% chance of winning.
wv=menyma. The name given to Obama's base - the old white unmarried men, hiding behind their lace curtains on Monument Avenue.
Thanks Petekent!
Palin should never ever use a sentence with the word "truth" in it.
>>CBS tracking poll...
O: 51
M: 43
CBS too! This is amazing. They are all so afraid of being the outlier - so they're all huddling together with their final prediction
/begin fangirl
My life during this election without 538 would've been a very different, very confused mess. Thanks for being so exceptionally dedicated.
Back to canvassing.
/end fangirl.
The higher AA turnout has already materialized in early voting, so even assuming PK is right, VA is still gone for McCain.
Jon Sanders makes a good point. Proposition 8 would constitutionally preclude same-sex marriage. Very important not to confuse people on this point.
Echoing other commenters, New York closes at 9.
wv: hampance
Sir Nate said:
"...We'll have new threads going up every 20 minutes or so covering every last detail of how we're seeing the evening unfold..."
##############
Fine !
it is also possible to have a "Real Joe's surprise" thread ?
Consdier what happens if there are long lines in those states which close early. That should mean that the networks should hold off projecting until those polling locations that have long lines shut down, which could mean a long wait.
The interesting thing is that, methodologically, such a wait isn't necessary. Since the 1960's (according to the late Warren Miller, who designed the first network projection systems), they use a blend of the net shift and total votes, since the net shift (current % minus previous %, weighted for total votes) is a more stable variable than most others.
If a state went 3.5% for Bush in 2004, but tomorrow shows a mean shift of 6% to Obama with minimal variance, once enough voting sites have reported in, the race is "callable," even though this won't be done as a matter of network policy.
One of my proudest moments as a pollster/election analyst was when the election night anchor started coverage saying that the polls had just closed, no official results were in but the analyst [that's my company] had called the election for [the eventual winner I was within .7% of the final result using that technique.
wv=isherse
stereotypical response in English from a native Russian speaker to question, "what kind of car will McCain be riding in on Tuesday?"
Begone, concern trolls!
petekent categorically promised yesterday that McCain would win both CA and NY when "people from the woods come out and vote" for him.
So guess that means that we need to colour CA and NY red?
I've lost interest in the polls at the moment.
Firstly there is too much else going on in the race, secondly far too many people have actually voted for them to be that accurate surely?
For me there are far and away enough polls showing healthy leads for Obama.
"Obama's white base is old unmarried men" by petekent
Actually Obama's advantage is blacks in Richmond, students in DC and unmarried professional women in their late 20s and 30s in NoVa. And there are many of them.
Black turnout is historic in this election. Rasmussen's polls are accurate imo.
Obama is more likely to win states in this order:
Florida>Ohio>Missouri>North Carolina
Ironically this is the opposite order of his primary performance.
But he has embraced Hillary's message and that will carry him to victory.
2008 Election Winner: EARLY VOTING & 'NATIONAL' PRIMARY
this increased voter registration, interest and turnout while decreasing impact of "Oct/Nov" surprises, voter suppression, or weather.
we are seeing Democracy in action -- it is beautiful.
IBD Tipp O +4.5 (up from 2.1)
47.5-43
"Are they willing to come out and oppose a candidate who is culturally so alien to their own life experiences?"
You mean like owning 8 houses?
Yeah, they'll vote against the old guy.
WV: ingin. Obama is an ingin of change.
Indiana cannot be declared until 7:00. 3 counties don't close until 7, including the infamous Lake County, home of the most Obama supporters for any county in Indiana.
If Indiana gets declared for Obama a little after 7:00, Obama doesn't need Virginia any more." (Matthew H)
82 counties are in EDT, 10 are in CDT of Indiana's 92 counties.
The votes in the 82 counties can be tabulated before the polls close in the remaining 10 counties.
If Obama is performing above 50% at 7 PM EDT before a single CDT vote is counted, the state will go for Obama. Why? Because Indiana has a 5% bloc for third parties buoyed by the central part of the state, meaning McCain will be no better than 45% at 7 PM EDT.
IBD Tipp gives up and throws in the towell. Admits all previous polls have been rubbish.
Just listened to these two arseholes spout their worthless misinformed opinion about the election on Sky News. Could anyone from Florida give the lowdown on these two fuckwits, whether they're Republicans?
Joseph Uschinski - Political Scientist (WHAT A DICK!!!)
Ken Charles - WIOD RADIO
Becky Sharp:
Perhaps Gallup is the only poll “with balls”, but it is more likely that the other polls are converging to a common number because the "undecideds" are finally committing and the likely voter demographics have come into clear focus.
Actually, this convergence is just what we should expect from accurate polls that are *not* being manipulated.
WIOD is right wing garbage!
It´s possible win by 7 points the popular vote (RCP average) and lost the EC?.
I don´t think so.
Concern trolls out in force because of the Ras polls.
Chill, please.
Those polls are not much different from the polls Ras has previously released for these states. The final tally will come down to each side's respective getting out the vote machines.
And let's give McCain the states he's (barely) leading in and the ties: that still leaves him short of 270. Let's also give him CO and VA; that gives him 269, a tie that goes to Obama.
Anyone hear Faux News pundit Fred Barnes pissing and moaning about early voting, saying it needs to stop? Unbelievable.
the rain will keep the crowds away!
NEWSFLASH Cheney uses weather machine from his secret lair in last ditch effort for victory.
WV corph - graph depicting how dead your chances are.
Hmmm Biden took questions for 30 mins on the campaign plane....MSNBC thinks that could be a sign that Obama campaign have stopped "hidin' Biden".....
It´s possible win by 7 points the popular vote (RCP average) and lost the EC?.
I don´t think so.
Please, anyone answer this.
@pierre
And I'll add that at least 40% have already voted in battleground states
It's over!
miste: Another McCain bathroom accident
Damn it Obama, close the damn deal already. Call out McCain and Palin on their hypocrisy and unfounded allegations instead of just letting them sway undecideds into the right-wing camp with their nonsense.
>>It´s possible win by 7 points the popular vote (RCP average) and lost the EC?.
technically: Yes
realistically: Never
Watch North Carolina, along with VA.
If Obama wins EITHER one, he's sitting pretty. If he wins both, it's lights out for Mac the Knife.
I ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got:
MVRed.com Prediction: McCain 281-Obama 257
Yes I am for McCain, but I acknowledge Obama wins the popular vote and that if McCain loses VA or PA, Obama wins...
It is actually possible to get 22.5% of the popular vote and win the election.
Hey.
Just wanted to say, thank you for this write up, it will be key for the viewing party I will have with my fellow political junkie(who is to the right of me, but an obama supporter nevertheless... he would be classified as centre-right). I am debating whether I should bring the laptop. I so want to keep this site open, but I am worried that all I will do is obsessively read the sites posts and comments, and not talk to my friend.
Oh and he doesn't believe me that Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana is in play. And that Obama will get 5%(or higher) more than McCain. We have a bet on that.
Oh and is the real joe surprise tomorrow? I thought it was today? Damn, i hate surprises :P
Let me be clear: I don’t think there is a classic Bradley Effect operating, but rather a case of suppression of McCain's apparent support as a result of race-based tactics on the part of the Obama campaign to swiftly brand opposition as racism. We see daily evidence of this right here on 538.com I don’t think Harold Ford’s opponent had to face that. Or even Doug Wilder’s.
What you may also now see is a sort of last stand by some very worried white people who typically distrust politicians of all stripes and are fearful of what an Obama administration may bring them. These are people who oppose affirmative action and who resent the cool insouciant arrogance that Obama portrays as being culturally alien to them. Among this latter group will be the AAs who stay home tomorrow.
These latest figures on auto sales might just make a lot of working class people sit up and take further notice. Obama's promise of a handout may seem pretty pallid when his economics threatens the loss of their jobs. With new automobiles costing $30,000 and up you are going to need some modicum of prosperity among rich folk if Detroit is ever going to get its ass in gear again. MI may just surprise. Unlikely that McCain will win, but the margin may be poor for Obama there.
Polls close in MI at 8, except for some small parts of the state.
Palin was right -- he should never have pulled out.
HILARIOUS! IBD/TIPP trying to get to some point of reality, nearly doubles Obama lead!
"The Ras numbers should scare the crap out of us."
Yawn. Why would I be scared by another in a long series of polls showing Obama above 50% in Virginia?
Love 538 !!
--
Dissenting voice! - please KEEP talking about the Bradley Effect (!)
The Bradley effect exists because of something UNspoken. The antidote is to discuss it, analyze it, and debunk it.
"Sunshine is the best disinfectant" - Obama quoting S.C. Justice Brandeis
The more people know that this event happened, the more they will question their own convictions.
..
that being said, as an Af. American, I find it laughable that media/culture/20th century sensibilities have combined to relabel old-fashioned racism as an "effect" (ironically bearing the moniker of a Af. American man). the slow inexorable sterilization of language.
We should have the "(Jesse) Helms Effect" to described Af.Amer voting patterns... sheeesh
Obama will win VA solely on the strength of AA turnout. If it materializes he wins, otherwise he will lose. Too much of No VA is dependent upon the defense establishment. These are high information voters who know that Obama is bad for their jobs.
LOL. Rantings of a mad man. Check this: Webb won Fairfax County by ~63k votes (59/40). I expect Obama to miss that by ~5% +-1%. A fifteen point win on higher volume will go a long way towards finishing the job.
FWIW (not much considering your head is denser than a DU shell), Webb won Richmond City 72/27 for a net gain of +14K votes vs a net gain of ~20K from Norfolk and Newport News.
The parts of the state that have heavy military populations are unlikely to provide a margin of victory for Obama there.
Many people who are in uniform vote in the place where they were before they enlisted.
Obama's white base is old unmarried men, hiding behind their lace curtains on Monument Avenue. Precious few and in short supply.
Takes one to know one?
dario,
It is possible to lose the PV by 7 points and lose the EC. BUT its highly unlikely, (the ec tends to magnify trends rather than go against them). And it certainly isn'yt going to happen this year. McCain needs to win the PV this year to take the EC.
rodrett said...
WIOD is right wing garbage!
And he was the guy I had pegged as the liberal. I thought he was just playing along, regurgitating right-wing talking points to make British viewers think the election was closer than the polls are saying.
Won't stop wringing my hands until tomorrow night when the election is called for certain.
GOTV! Don't let up!!!
Any rational EC/PV discrepancy model shows that the chance of a different result is virtually impossible beyond more than a 2.5 PV margin, and very unlikely if more than 1%.
1960, 1968, 1976 and 2004 were all under 2.5 points, and EV/PV correlated the same way.
(nothwo - an incomplete pass with a lisp)
" ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got"
LOL. Why are you giving this away for free, Skippy? There's a whole huge for-profit polling industry out there, and they are desperately in need of your wisdom.
"Really guys, the fact that we're talking about staying up late and relying on Virginia are not signs of a party that has a 94% chance of winning."
Jack, I don't believe you are an Obama supporter. Tommorow will be an historic day for us. Dems will win HUGE. There isn't anything you can say to rain on our parade.
"Bradley" effect news is getting old. If there is that much racism in this country I will support the Taliban and Al Qaeda groups.
why RAS doing this?
Headline, Indianapolis Star:
"Hundreds Await McCain at Airport"
There is something worse than being a Republican who is forced to go to Indiana the day before the General Election...
Being a Republican who is forced to go to Indiana the day before the General Election to a crowd of "hundreds".
WV: ester - Polly's sister.
@sfergus
I thought Nixon won the PV in 1960
rearstars: what you see when you hit your butt really hard
WIOD from the minute they turn the transmitter on to the minute they turn it off is wackadoo radio.
Michael -
You really had to cook the books to get a McCain win - reweighting to an unrealistic party ID, AND unrealistic weighting of how undecideds split.
Intellectually honest, you really think that is correct?
What DeadCatBounce fails to account for is the turnout on election day itself. As the PPP battleground polling shows, McCain leads by 10% or so among those who have not voted.
Imagine if all this talk of an Obama wins inspires some lazy coots to get out of their arm chairs and vote.
Could be some folks are starting to get nervous about what all this "change" means for them.
People, they say, don't like change!
And remember these are RED States we are fighting over.
RWD said...
"The Ras numbers should scare the crap out of us."
Yawn. Why would I be scared by another in a long series of polls showing Obama above 50% in Virginia?
++++++++++++++++++++
I aint gonna lie the rass poll has me worried...though someone (think it was PA Joe) posted that rass poll for FL and NC were erratic with some wild swings that ease my mind....well a little....
Nate,
If the networks stay to form as they did in 2004, they will NOT call a state until ALL the polls are closed in that state. Prior to that, as we all know, the networks would call a state when most of the polls closed, which is why Indiana and Kentucky were almost always the first splotches of red on the map.
So IN and KY can't get called for for Obama or McCain until after 7PM Eastern time.
Otherwise, we're in almost complete agreement. I've also been touting Virginia as THE state to watch, as Obama has a not insubstantial lead there so it could be called relatively quickly, and obviously a win there, especially if he overperforms his polling slightly, almost guarantees a win overall.
God my stomach hurts. Maybe drugs ARE the answer. Of course I COULD get up and walk away and stop feverishly reading the blogs (especially THIS ONE) but hey....nah....pass the whiskey. Or the ativan. I CANT STAND THIS!
if you give Mccain all of NC, OH, MO, and FL Obama would still receive 291 Electoral Votes. That won;t happen imo. Worst Case Scenerio is they split those four states. Obama still winds up with over 310.
Nate, will you be putting up your prediction tonight??
Pretty please!?
Anymore of you republican lightweights re-jigging the polls to come out to the desired result? Truly pathetic!
What I have read in the PPP polling is that McCain has large leads among the population that has not voted. If we see a massive upsurge in turnout, as many are now predicting 75% (up from a base of about 50%), McCain could easily overwhelm the banked votes Obama has already. His folks have voted early, McCain's have not. They also live in less densely populated areas so long lines at the polls are not likely to be a problem, like in Cleveland.
Don't worry about Philly -- the rain will keep the crowds away!
LOL @ PETEKENT.
Check. This!
I see more rain in NC. I guess peat things black people melt in the rain.
As others have noted, the "direction" of Proposition 8 is stated incorrectly in the Newsweek piece. A "yes" vote would ban gay marriage.
It's OVER. michael calls the election for McCain, though he concedes Obama wins the popular vote.
@Syrlacc Daggerstryke said...
Damn it Obama, close the damn deal already. Call out McCain and Palin on their hypocrisy and unfounded allegations instead of just letting them sway undecideds into the right-wing camp with their nonsense.
The defining charcteristic of Obama's campaign style is that he has never lowered himself to the level of his opponents' slime. When you wrestle with a pig (or a pitbull), you both get dirty and the pig likes it.
This will make bipartisan concensus building easier once he takes office.
Love 538!
---
Dissenting voice!
"Bad/LoBama" Polls are Good for Obama !
Why ?
It kills complacency in the Obama-core -- Get&Bring Out The Vote. Long lines would discourage McC voters more than Obama supporters
Get your vote on !
Call your family !
Call your friends !
COMPLACENCY is the ENEMY
Sherwick, please, I never said McCain would win CA and Ny. My point was about ME, NH, WI, MN, WA and OR -- the heavily forrested states. I beleive this election will show a correlation between degree of forrestation and GOP success. Some call it the Palin effect.
Remember that voting begins at 0001 in Dixville Notch, NH.
WV: erboati as in er boat is filling with water
Michael said...
I ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got:
MVRed.com Prediction: McCain 281-Obama 257
November 3, 2008 2:30 PM
#############
@Michael:
Virus alert !!!!!!!!!
methink your computer must be Infected by a Trojan Mooselini virus,a deadly one.
call an expert ASAP.
I have all the confidence in the Obama ground game in OH, VA, FL, MO, etc.
This cycle, PPP > Rasmussen when it comes to state by state polls, and they are showing Obama up in all of these states.
To get a 9 hour jump on the worriers, here are the 2004 results from Dixville Knotch and Hart's Location, the two New Hampshire towns that vote at midnight and count immediately:
Dixville Knotch
Bush 19
Kerry 7
Hart's Location
Bush 16
Kerry 14
Nader 1
Kerry of course won New Hampshire.
The cable networks will be there live, and showing this year's results around 12:15 AM ET
Hey Michael, even your messiah from a few days ago (Zogby) threw in the towel on PA. Your "realistic" interpretation is a complete joke.
SHERWICK said...
It's OVER. michael calls the election for McCain, though he concedes Obama wins the popular vote.
++++++++++++++++
This morning scarborough and buchanan were saying that they can see Obama getting 53% of the pop and still not getting enough electoral votes....but eh....guess we will see....
"Spiral of Silence" - found it.
Developed not in UK but by German pollster Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. In 1997 used by just one of the pollsters - ICM. Using it caused them to overcorrect and seriously underestimate Labours actual majority.
Hardly relevant to USA.
Bob Worcester's book again
Even the most obtuse segment(in the PT Barnum sense) would not be so gullible as to allow the GOP to retain the Presidency. After the last eight years there is just no way to sufficiently dumb down the electorate.
McCain was practically drawing dead the whole time and whatever suspense there was, existed solely due to media efforts to preserve the "horse race".
The emergence of large numbers of young, cel-phone connected voters is a curve-ball coming at the pollsters too. It is very unclear the extent of the Obama victory will reach. I'm down for a lot at 360 EV because I believe that Missouri will be more of a bandwagon joiner than an electoral trendsetter. They won't want to blemish their 104 year winning streak. We'll see.
@PeteKent said...
Sherwick, please, I never said McCain would win CA and Ny. My point was about ME, NH, WI, MN, WA and OR -- the heavily forrested states. I beleive this election will show a correlation between degree of forrestation and GOP success. Some call it the Palin effect.
---------------------------------
How do you know that all Repubs, men and women, don't shave down there?
:)
"People, they say, don't like change!" (PeteKent)
This isn't change, PK...it is evolution.
Our nation cannot grow without evolution.
Folks,
Looking over Nate's comments again, those aren't the words of someone who has provided analysis that there is a 90+% chance of Obama winning. The Ras numbers should scare the crap out of us. Winning the popular vote and losing the EC because those red states do what they normally do is a DISTINCT and increasingly likely possibility. The signs that Obama has pulled in the white voters he needs just aren't out there. In fact, in a lot of polling, it looks like McCain is scooping them up. Is it possible that we are going to see the impossible happen? Sadly, I'm beginning to think so. Shame on all of us if we again lied ourselves into believing that we could not possibly loose the unloosable election.
Really guys, the fact that we're talking about staying up late and relying on Virginia are not signs of a party that has a 94% chance of winning.
Some people democrats make me sick. The election is over. Obama has a 7 point lead in PA, 5 points in VA and 6 in CO. Thats it. It's over.
OH,FL,MO,NC,IN are gravy. I have the campaign on ice as we speak.
ITS OVER!
Oh no, it's troll feeding time again.
PeteKent said...
Sherwick, please, I never said McCain would win CA and Ny.
++++++++++
Your double did....got a stalker pete....
For all the worry warts - if you want to make yourself feel better, go check out the final battleground state polls from 2004, then compare them to right now. Presto.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
McCain's final twisting of Obama's words:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/closing_arguments_mccain.html
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/not_coming_clean_on_coal.html
We must ALL pray for Obama (and his familia), and keep him "protected in a ring of light" There are many (dickless)haters out there who don't give a rat's ass about their fellow man, and wish to do him harm~remember him Your prayers ALWAYS!
~Special advocate for the Trees...
Antmatic:
How about Indiana?
wv trian: no matter how hard he's trian, McCain can't win this...
(Becky Sharpe if there were a prize on here for the best wvs, you would WIN it.)
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/We_live_it.html?showall
please watch. it's a dandy - palin on minorities.
And furthermore, dumbass kent:
73% of the total 2004 vote is already in. You're saying that the remaining, what... let's be generous... 35% of the vote is going to "swamp" what's already there? Are you stupid? McCain probably HAS to get a 10% lead of the people who vote on election day just to LOSE BY ONE. And you think this is a good place for him to be with weather bearing down on the state?
Idiot.
You're gonna keep your map updated, Nate?
That's some massive dedication, and will pretty much cement you as the go-to guy every election cycle.
Get some sleep tonight!
"You mean like owning 8 houses? " Get over it!!!
The trappings of wealth are not who you are.
Imagine Joe Biden made nearly $3 million dollars and he gave only $3,500 to charity.
Mrs. McCain travels the world performing healing operations on children facing a life of disfigurement in cultures where they would be shunned. She even adopts one as her own.
No one should begrudge the McCain family fortune. What they should question is the use it will be put to.
Think of Obama's millions and then his poor impoverished relatives of whom he spoke so movingly in his million-dollar memoirs. Now they live on the streets and face deportation. How many times was in Boston and never bothered to send an aide with 50 bucks to help poor old Aunt Zetuni.
did you all realize Obama is black???
Petekunt is rite! We will come from the hills to vote fer Mccain! The MAC is BACK!
Hey Nate you should really consider hiring Michael as a statistician. He was able to sift through the "noise" in all of these very similar polls to determine a shocking [alternate] reality.
I am praying for petekent's people in the woods.
El Oso said...
Nate, will you be putting up your prediction tonight??
Pretty please!?
Hahahahaa.
Seriously? Nate has put up his prediction every single day for months now... what are you talking about?
And don't forget half-brother George who lives on the streets and survives by his fists.
Obama is a man of low character.
Even if everything goes bad in thr other battlegrounds CO, NM and PA are the firewalls to 273.
Don't worry. It'll be ok
(If it does come down to the above scenario expect me to have a heart attack)
Remember, these are Fox News/Rasmussen Monday polls. I never have high expectations of them, as they've always had it tighter than other state polls.
BTW, why is FOX attached to Rasmussen on Monday's atate polls and not other days?
CBS SUCKS BALLS. They're just trying to cover their arse. Two consecutive days at 13% then a drop-off. Ain't buying it.
Sherwick, please, I never said McCain would win CA and Ny. My point was about ME, NH, WI, MN, WA and OR -- the heavily forrested states.
Clearly someone has never been to Northern California (North of SF), the Sierra Nevada, or Upstate New York. Like ME, NH, WI, MN, WA, OR, there's a ton of tree there, but like the forests in those states, there's also that many people living in them.
Try again dumbass. You were wrong. You made a fool of yourself. Go back to your hole and cry.
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