11.05.2008

Dems Gain One Governor's Chair

Jay Nixon (D) wins Missouri. Bev Perdue (D) won North Carolina narrowly, keeping the governor's seat Democratic.

Brian Schweitzer crushes Roy Brown in Montana.

No real surprises in the Governor's races.

36 comments

floydiansea said...

Good for Missouri.

David said...

Any news on Georgia absentee votes that haven't been counted yet?

dziban303 said...

How the fuck is Stevens winning in AK?

Just as perplexing is how Jefferson won in LA.

ThatcherW said...

Nate & Sean -

What's the word on NE-2?!?!?! Will you guys be painting it blue anytime soon?

And if NC is reporting 100% ... what's stopping that from going blue?

Just John said...

Governor-wise, WA re-elected Gregoire... this time by more than 123 votes. Thought I might add that, considering the maddening49.999 to 49.999 tie we endured 4 years ago.

wouldpkr said...

Just wanted to say, Thank you 538! been following you for a few months and been loving every post!

Rock!

ThatcherW said...

MT called for MC

phil said...

You shouldn't delete posts like that, Sean. Just post an update saying that, like Kos, you messed up.

dziban303 said...

LOL, they deleted the post about Obama winning NE-2. Whoops!

InkStain said...

No takebacks!

Persuter said...

Heh heh, a matter of reading what we want to, eh guys? No worries! You're still awesome! :D

Mike said...

Aww, you should just admit you were wrong instead of deleting the post.

NC_voter said...

I knew that it would be this year that my North Carolina turned Blue.

We are blue for Obama
We are blue for Hagan
We are blue for Purdue

I for one have tears of joy in my eyes knowing that finally we have rejected the anti-intellectualism and intolerance that the rethuglicans have forced upon us during their death-grip on this nation for the last eight years. We are truely entering a new progressive era, and words can't describe how proud I am of NC helping lead the way


God bless you all and god bless President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama jr.

Just John said...

S'okay though. Sean WANTS Obama to lose that NE solo district anyway. That way BHO can add IN's 11 EV, lose NC in a recount, drop Montana, and have MO slip through their fingers and finish with 349 JUST LIKE THE MODELGOD PREDICTED.

madamerica said...

Missouri is gone for McCain, margin up to 6,000. I am actually glad. So much for the bellwether state nonsense.

Greg said...

It wasn't a matter of selective reading, just wishful thinking; Sean posted based on an incomplete report that gave Nebraska's 2nd to Obama at that time, but they updated the results within seconds of the post.

Ed said...

I don't think he was wring, the link from the Secretary of State has had Obama up in NE-2 for most of the night. It's been the same pdf file too for the past few hours. Stupid Nebraska.

Aquaria said...

dziban:

Alaskans may be thinking that even if Stevens doesn't get an appeal and has to go to jail, Palin will appoint a Republican. So they're going to vote for him, to get a Republican in that seat. One theory, anyway.

MT, MO, NE and IN will all be red. NC is blue.

docbenny said...

MO goes to McCain by about 5K. Nader steals this one away from Obama it looks like.

Aquaria said...

Nebraska just updated and had McCain ahead in NE-2.

dziban303 said...

aquaria: Indiana was called for Obama an hour ago.

Chan said...

What happened to the "Barack takes Nebraska's second district" post?

Just John said...

Yeah, madamerica, I'm getting pretty fed up with that "MO magically predicts the winner" nonsense. It's like saying that the Patriots will automatically win the Super Bowl by virtue of going undefeated in the regulal season. And we all saw how that turned out.

But winning it would be nice too.

Homer said...

Alaskan's love their republicans for some reason. I never believed the race was in the bag for Begich, I live here and know the hill he has to climb to win.

It looks like Berkowitz (house) is done, Don Young is back???

We shall see and hope. We may not know until next week the way they are handling absentee ballots this cycle.

Might as well throw Palin in the pen with our corrupt bunch of Republicans in this state...

Nicholas said...

Missourian here. I wouldn't give up on Obama there yet. We have provisional ballots to deal with and the spread is only 5,000. I'm willing to bet that most of those ballots would come from new voters who tend to go with Obama. We're not giving up that bellwether nonsense quite yet.

Bruce in AK said...

About Alaska - Begich still has a chance, but if he does pull it out it will be close and will probably come down to early and absentee ballots that aren't being counted tonight.

Stevens is winning because Palin brought out the Republican base and a lot of low information voters, the Republican Party really pushed the idea that even if Stevens has to resign there will still be a good chance to preserve the seat, and frankly a whole lot of Alaska is just afraid of not having Stevens in office. Its like voting out George Washington to a lot of people.

Another factor is that although rural Alaska (where I live) is pretty solidly blue (unlike most states), rural villages vote a lot on name recognition and Begich really didn't campaign in the Bush.

Don Young - the equally corrupt and far more ignorant Congressman - is also winning despite being far behind in the polls.

All of which is extremely frustrating. Alaska is not nearly as Red as is portrayed; I really think it would have flipped for Obama if McCain hadn't picked Palin.

Just John said...

Nicholas - I suppose you can keep the bellwether manure if you deliver the state for Obama. It's a fair tradeoff. I like landslides.

Meredith said...

Re: Stevens in AK:

As Bruce in AK says, the bush may lean D, but Stevens is very, very strong out there and Begich has little recognition. As far as urban areas go, I personally suspect a strong anger vote -- I've heard a lot of rage about how the trial was handled and of course the fact that it was in D.C. in the first place. Having someone else handle what Alaskans see as their affairs just drives them up the wall.

I've always felt taking the senate race for granted was very dangerous and it looks like unfortunately that's the case... I'm much more shocked by the Young-Berkowitz race. Maybe I just have too much personal antipathy for Young to see it clearly but I thought at the very least it would be a close race. Disappointing to say the least.

low-tech cyclist said...

Great shout-out to Nate in this morning's xkcd. Enjoy.

Rhonlynn said...

Yeah, we got rid of Blunt. He was/is a very scarry man, and he took absolutely everything away form us in Missouri. Things that other states have-early voting, for example, he decided we did not need. Jay Nixon has been around for a long time. Jay Nixon is planning on bringing back the things that Matt Blunt has removed. He is a snake, but they voted him in. They got what they deserved.
I'm love the fact that Obama won by a landslide. I am white, and I don't think it has too much to do with race. Obama ran a smart campaign.

Big No said...

Nate -
Great job all election! You have a right to feel very good about your algorithm and approach.

Could you color your final map according to margin of victory so that final and predicted results can be better compared? Also, in the detailed state projection column down the right side of the site, can you add a line for final result in each state's section?

Thanks!

loomisnews said...

Washington State Gov's race -- not a surprise?

While Dem Gregoire's trend was always above GOP Rossi's, in most of the public polls she rarely (& only episodically) hit 50% or better. Not being able to get consistently above 50% is a bad sign for an incumbent.

In 7 of the 9 polls from mid-Oct. on she got 50% or better, peaking out at 52% in a couple, but hardly a gimme. If the Dem's field operation hadn't come thru, it might have been a different story.

Count is still finishing up cause of mail-in voting system, but she's currently got 53.8% to 46.1%. A lot better than 4 years ago w/ 2 recounts and Gregoire winning by less than 140 votes.

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