Perhaps Al Franken's campaign is listening to Nate, never a bad move. Franken has now challenged more ballots than Norm Coleman, 414 to 409.
Coleman's lead over Franken is now 136 votes after two days and 46% of the ballots recounted. 30% of votes have been recounted in heavily Democratic Ramsey County, 36% in Democratic St. Louis County, and 42% in Democratic Hennepin County.
Six relatively small counties are set to begin counting tomorrow. More are set to begin counting next week, and the challenge adjudication phase of the process can begin as early as December 6, but likely Monday December 8.
Dakota County, which went for Coleman decisively, has produced a net gain of 32 for Franken. Coleman has lost 40 votes to Franken's 8, so perhaps this is where Franken challenges have stepped up.
Without seeing all the challenged ballots, it's unclear where the challenge phase will take us, or what the final tally of challenges will be. Obviously there is an important perception problem in terms of who has the lead after the recount.
Per the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, both camps seem pleased with the state of the recount, which should indicate just how little certainty either side has about the ultimate outcome. We'll update tomorrow.
69 comments
FIRST !!!
Bwwhwahahhahahahah!!
If I was Frankin I would feel pretty good about where things stand right now.
Go Al Franken
You are good enough, you are smart enough, and doggone it, people like you
On Rachel Maddow tonight it was reported Coleman was ahead by several thousand. I am pulling for Al of course but kinda confused here.
Let's hope we finally get to have the Al Franken Decade. =)
Go Al!!!!!!!
What she was referring to were only those precincts that have been tallied both initially and in the recount.
The important figures are
1) how the old and new totals compare in those precincts
2) how many challenged (uncounted in the second tally) votes there are
But if Nate told you to go jump off a cliff, THEN WOULD YOU?
wv: demantu. Nate is demantu go to for poll analysis.
Great pictures, Brett. Sean, not to nitpick but I think you are missing an s on the end of Lead in your title.
Your observation that both camps seem happy with the situation does suggest that this race is likely to be very close and that nobody really knows what will happen. How all of these challenged ballots shake out might prove decision, it seems. At least MN has a good, coherent, and reliable system.
I so want to break out my "Lies (and the Lying Liars that Tell Them): A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right".
It would be the first book purchased by an author later became a senator.
JTFV: Our next president might have something to say about that, seeing as how Dreams from My Father was published in 1995.
Damnit, Pinyan beat me to it. Wouldn't be surprised if there were others, too.
I think Joe meant purchased b him.
Many Senators have had books published before their elections - off the top of my head, Hillary Clinton, John Kennedy (While England Slept), S.I. Hayakawa, Pat Moynihan...
@ pinyan
I will BUY that book, but I already have the Al Franken book in my possession. I bought it in the bad old days of stolen elections.
and sorry I forgot to mention the first book that I would have purchased for my personal library
I know Kennedy wrote one. It was mandatory reading in New England.
Nick:
The absolute numbers show Coleman leading by thousands of votes, but that is because they have counted more votes from pro-Coleman precincts. As they finish the recount, the Franken numbers will go back up. What actually matters is the final change in each candidates' numbers from the precincts which have been counted so far. It is these numbers that are being reported by the Star-Tribune.
The way the count is going now, it looks like Franken will fall about 40-50 votes short before the challenge phase begins. And looking at some of the challenged ballots, I think that the vast majority of challenges will be rejected. With only 1800 or so challenged ballots, Franken would have to make some unrealistic gains to come out ahead.
QUESTION OF TESTABILITY OF THEORIES
Hey, I have a question: Is there anyway to find out the precints the recounts are coming from? Not just the counties, but precints?
Also, is there a way to tell how many votes were marked as choosen not to pick a Senate candidate? This would useful regarding the AP study which mentioned the 26,000 that seemed to favor Al before the recount. If the bulk of those are included - that would tell us a lot more than just percentage so far would. Because if a large number of 26,000 are already counted that would mean Al's chances are diminished, but conversely if there have not been as many- then there maybe a lot more to come.
Most of the the counties that haven't started yet (27) went for Coleman. We won't get final results un December 4 or so.
Politico is reporting that Hillary Clinton will be named as Secretary of State. No real surprise, but it seems to be basically a done deal. Obama aides said that Obama is "on track" to offer it to her and that they expect her to accept it. Perhaps we won't have to hear non-stop coverage about the speculation anymore.
Coleman's lead over Franken is NOT 136 votes! 136 is the lead Coleman would have in the counted precincts if we assume that:
- every challenge that either candidate has made against a ballot counted for their opponent will be upheld by the canvassing board.
- every challenge that either candidate has made against a ballot that was previously not counted will be rejected by the canvassing board.
Question friends...
After the recount is done and all the challenge ballots are resolved, is there any more recourse for the loser?
Like if Franken is ahead by 3 votes at the conclusion what can Coleman do?
thene said...
But if Nate told you to go jump off a cliff, THEN WOULD YOU?
Nate would never tell us to jump off a cliff without the data to back it up, would he?
@reelgeist
down at the bottom of the SOS's page, there is a link to an Excel file that shows all the precincts that have reported recount numbers:
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
Are they counting the undervotes and overvotes at the same time as the rest of them?
"Green said...
Like if Franken is ahead by 3 votes at the conclusion what can Coleman do?"
Cry like a little girl.
No seriously, he could try a court challenge disputing the results for some reason (I'm sure Republicans can come up with one).
What can Coleman do?
Hire Blackwater and engineer a coup
26th!
Take a look at this. Zogby won't do the parallel McCain voter push poll. Admits the Obama voter poll was not his finest hour.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/20/zogby-takes-a-pass-on-mccain-poll/
The final judge of the winner of this election could be the 2009 Senate. If it's less than 20 votes one way or the other each side will challenge the result in court and the loser will ask the US Senate to certify him the winner if he doesn't like the court decision. The Senate will most likely abide a court decision. But it doesn't have to meekly put its collective tail between its legs like Gore did in 2000/2001.
Everything we're posting about now is rank speculation, without any predictive capacity. The key is the challenged votes and how they break. If one campaign or the other is merely challenging frivolously, then it is likely that that is the campaign that will lose. (According to Nate it will win the PR war up to this point. To that I say -- BFD.)
So, we need to know what the pattern is, if any, of the challenges by each side. If we don't know that we are no better in posting about this than the empty bloviating talking heads who populate what passes for political shows these days.
As to the question of what Coleman (or Franken) does if behind after the recount, the answer is that you move to the election challenge phase. (A court case claiming that ballots weren't counted that should have been or some other similar theory about why the count is flawed.) Of course, the person who is ahead after the recount is certified as the winner and gets to function as Senator pending the court case. As everyone learned from Florida in 2000 and Florida in 2006, it is important to be ahead after the recount; so you file your contest issues now (e.g. Franken on absentee ballots) so that the ruling helps you in the count rather than wait until later.
As far as the perception issue that Nate raised, I think it matters how the media plays it. The canvassing board is part of the recount. If the media is accurate in their reporting, they will note that whomever is ahead is ahead pending a ruling on disputed ballots.
I also think that the perception thing will have minimal effect on the canvassing board decision. Four of the five members are judges. They are used to being condemned for unpopular deciisions on a rather regular basis. As far as the decisions of the canvassing board, it is more important that the challenges be credible (and mostly right) than to artificially take the lead by making frivolous challenges. IF too many challenges appear to be meritless, that is going to hurt the credibility of your challenges on the close calls.
It's a little like working the refs at a sporting event. IF you challenge every call, you are not going to get the close ones. But if you protest mostly bad calls, you might get one or two in your favor that you shouldn't have.
BREAKING
AG Mukasey just bit down on a cyanide capsule rather than testify against Bush and Cheney
CYANIDE!!
HAHAHA
palic: a kiss from a friend
@STepper- You're right, but the info is out there to answer your question. I'm just too old and lazy to get it now.
5% of the precincts have extremely reliable hand audit counts, without frivolous partisan challenges. We need only look at the roughly half of those 5% that have been through the formal recount. How do the lower formal numbers, from which the challenges have been subtracted, compare with the audit numbers which we know will be very close to the real final count? That'll tell us if either side is being systematically more frivolous.
The actual count itself seems to be heading toward about +70 for C. The challenges are heading toward about 1000 for each. Are they enough different in seriousness to swing that result? See procedure above.
/mbw
Sean and Marty: thanks so much! Are you writing a book (or two) based on "On the Road"? I would buy a copy for everyone in my family.
@Michael
I think the stats are even more variable than we can imagine. (Like random.) In some counties one side or the other may have a challenge strategy. And a different one in another county.
Based on this variable I think all we will get is statistical noise and nothing from which we can extrapolate. Unless both sides were very disciplined. But that seems to go against the grain. About the only disciplined political campaign I've seen in 40 years (and I've been in a lot of them) was Obama's. Disciplined from the top down.
You have to see this...
Sara Palin (remember that cretin that ran for Vice P)
giving one of her dumb, dumber, dumbest interviews while turkeys are beheaded behind her!
She's oblivious of course... of course!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/20/sarah-palin-holds-news-co_n_145375.html
Ya know I was thinkin... there is no reason an intellectually curious woman from Alaska (maybe even the governor) could not find all manner of research material from libraries, briefs, internet sources about foreign policy issues, national issues, etc. Such that she would be conversant with a wide berth of issues that might attend a potential national leader.
I guess Sara just never thought of those things.
I do, many of you do. But not her.
She is a hockey mom and she should know her place in this life.
it looks like Franken will fall about 40-50 votes short before the challenge phase begins
The actual count itself seems to be heading toward about +70 for C.
These kinds of statements appear to be based on looking at the statewide net change thus far and extrapolating from the percentage of the vote recounted to date. I'm not sure this is valid, since it does not consider where the changes are coming from and whether those trends are likely to hold up in the places that have yet to be recounted. Based on local trends to date, Franken could make up the remaining deficit in Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis counties alone. That's cherry picking, of course, but it illustrates my point about the statewide trend not necessarily being informative.
As an Obama supporting moderately conservative liberal I am not convinced I want Franken to win. Some of his rhetoric over the years represents precisely the kind of kindling the republicans can start a fire with in 2 years.
copards: police officer digestive tract.
RE WHERE THE VOTES ARE RECOUNTED
Mac is very right. For example, the votes that Franken has picked up thus far in Hennepin is pegged at 42 % for the county having been recounted. That part of the county would favor Coleman.
However, Minnepolis - the Democratic enclave- inside of Hennepin is only 16 % recounted thus far. I think this is important to understand- the distributional issue. Why does this matter? Demographics. Look Minneopolis has a black population of 16 percent - thats one of the groups that people expect to find mistakes with regard to having incorrectly marked their ballots.
There is also 10.6 percent population of Latinos in Minnie.
For the County as a whole its 8.9 percent black and 4.07 percent Latino.
I did not look up the exit polls, but I am going to wager that both AA turnout and Latino turnout was up in Minnie. With 16 percent only being counted, and the numbers having almost been halfed thus far without touching big Democratic enclaves, I think we won't know the picture by simple extrapolation.
Mac, I have accounted for the fact that more of the Coleman friendly precincts have been counted. It is quite simple to do. My assumption is that Franken's gains so far will be magnified by the ratio of his (undisputed) votes to Coleman's in the remaining precincts. As of tonight, Coleman has had 1.08 ballots counted for every Franken ballot. Franken has gained 79 ballots with 46% of the vote counted. Since in the final tally, we expect the ratio to be 1:1 (up to an accuracy of 0.0001), the other 54% should favour Franken by about 1.073:1 give us 79+79*(.54/.46)*1.073 = 179, leaving him 36 votes short.
The only other assumption I made was that the challenged ballots will not survive scrutiny, and if you've seen this, I think you'd agree with me. Extrapolating and putting back the refuted challenges produces a net gain of 10 or so for Coleman. That is how I got 40-50. I imagine there are some legitimate votes to be challenged, too, may 10-20% of the 1800. How those split is anyone's guess. I think it will be roughly equal.
Based on local trends to date, Franken could make up the remaining deficit in Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis counties alone. That's cherry picking, of course, but it illustrates my point about the statewide trend not necessarily being informative.
Your argument is problematic specifically because you cherry pick. There are plenty of Coleman friendly areas that still need to have their ballots counted.
Of course, there's some uncertainty surrounding any extrapolation, so I won't say the race is over. But if you put a gun to my head and told me to pick a winner, I'd have to go with Coleman.
God, I'm having nightmares of Florida from looking at these pictures. At least it looks like all the votes are going to be counted here.
A Scottish Bounce? Labour Stuns the SNP
reelgeist:
Look Minneopolis has a black population of 16 percent - thats one of the groups that people expect to find mistakes with regard to having incorrectly marked their ballots.
Actually, if you read this study, you'd see that blacks are not more likely to incorrectly mark their ballot. They tended to intentionally undervote in recent elections. There is also no evidence that Latinos unintentionally undervote in larger numbers.
@redhawk04
Nice of you to post a link to the Glenrothes victory over the SNP which was only successful because of nothing more than fear mongering tactics; no different from what the Republicans did on this side of the pond. Too bad the Scottish people in Glenrothes bought into that B.S helped on by a labour controlled media. The difference between America and Scotland is America saw the opportunity to reboot, and went down a fresh direction with choosing Obama; Scotland still lives in the dark ages with following idiots like Brown, the man responsible for the current economic conditions due to lack of regulation, and that prat Blair with his 5 houses and 12 million dollars that he made last year having the balls to say he represented the working class man with his new labour tripe. Frankly, I'm praying for a Tory victory in the next election to get rid of those pricks because anyone that voted for them have sold Scotland down the river.
with 30% of votes recounted in Ramsey county, Franken has gained ground by 39 votes. unlike other counties with big swings, there have been few challenges here, only 10 total (8 Franken & 2 Coleman). if this county kept up this pace Franken could make up almost half the difference there alone, even if the majority of challenged ballots ended up going to Coleman.
from reading these posts my prediction is that nobody will know the answer until well into December, because the gap is likely to be so narrow that everything will come down to what happens to the challenged ballots, and that will probably end up in court.
Trying to extrapolate the final result from the bitty data available is impossible. Nobody knows enough about why challenges are being made.
Incidentally, you cannot expect either side to be absolutely pure in what they challenge. If there was a vote in the Franken pile that shouldn't be there, would you really expect a Franken supporter to point it out? Or vice versa for Coleman? Nice to think they would, but in reality in a close race, no way would it happen. It would be like demanding a recount when you're in front.
Oh, and on the subject of thread purity: some relevance to topic is good, but *just* statistics and maths with no leavening would make a terribly dry thread for most people. The site is evolving post-election - it will take time to get the balance right.
As for trolls, RWC should be on a starvation diet. The real Mule Rider can sometimes post things worthy of discussion.
Here are links provided by MN sec of state, which update the recount numbers at 8pm (local time) everyday during the recount. The link shows all the detail numbers; county by county, precinct by precinct, and how many votes have “flipped” by each county from the Nov 4 number.
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/
This link shows how each county voted on Nov 4, whether it went blue or red.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPMN
From studied of these two links, 42.33% have recounted as of Nov 20, while the heavily populated and Obama won counties such as Ramsey, Hennepin, Dakota, Washington and St. Louis are only about 30% reporting (except Washington, 62.37% reporting). What the mean is; counties that went for McCain make up most of the 42.33% and counties that went for Obama are still in their early stage of recounting. With that in mind, Franken already cut the lead down to 136 votes form the originally 215 votes (538 dot com). Though the final recount number may be razor thin either way as everyone predicted, it thus favorite Franken.
I am absolutely not cherry picking numbers, study the links for yourself.
You people don't need to "extrapolate" and make an analysis based on shaky presumptions and a lack of evidence.
STEP 1: The ballot challenges are IRRELEVANT! Very few challenges will be upheld. Just as I suspected most of them come from 2 or 3 obvious voter problems: like the voter tapping her pen on the ballot while considering her vote and leaving a tiny stray mark in one oval before filling in the other.
Franken is challenging more because they've counted 3% more Coleman leaning precincts than Franken ones. I imagine Coleman will surge back into the challenge lead tomorrow. But, both camps will be disappointed in their challenges.
From the Minn. Star:
"Challenges rising
The number of challenged ballots continued to increase Thursday, reaching 823. Mansky -- who worked from 1984 to 1999 in the secretary of state's office and is widely considered the state's foremost elections expert -- said that people shouldn't expect many of those challenges to bear fruit.
"I can only remember two ballot challenges in all those years that were sustained," he said, meaning that the campaign lawyers' views prevailed over the opinion of election judges.
He said he wouldn't be surprised if campaign lawyers negotiate a reduction in the number of challenged ballots before the Canvassing Board meets next month to go through them.
The same issues come up regularly, Mansky said -- one filled-in oval with a faint dot in another (typically voters tapping their pens on the ballot as they read it), two ovals filled in with one crossed out, which "comes up every election."
The third most common challenge, Mansky said, involves stray marks on the ballot. State law prohibits identifying marks, such as initials, because they can signal vote fraud. "If they don't jump out as an attempt to identify the ballot, they should be counted," Mansky said."
So all those ballots will count. Nearly a wash.
STEP 2: More Coleman precincts have already been counted by 3%. Yet Franken is closing the gap. One would expect that the Franken leaning precincts would yield even more votes for him, but we'll have to wait and see. But, his camp is clearly anticipating victory. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/20/franken-camp-were-doing-e_n_145268.html
"Marc Elias, the Franken campaign's chief counsel, said that the early recount results (which decreased the margin separating the Democratic challenger and Coleman by 43 votes) actually underestimated the ground gained.
"We do in fact feel very good about how the first day of the recount went... We believe that through last night, 26.5 percent of the ballots were hand counted. And that represents slightly three percent more of the Coleman vote or Republican vote than was true during the election. And nevertheless we picked up a significant chunk of votes," said Elias. "In other words, the ballots counted yesterday were more Republican than the total ballot pool will end up being. It was a slightly redder pile versus what it will finally be. And not withstanding that slightly redder view, we picked up votes yesterday. In fact, we believe that number is higher than the 43 votes reflected on the Secretary of State's official margin."
Elias declined to reveal just how many recount votes the campaign has internally calculated, saying it would lead to endless speculation and inspection. He added that the campaign did feel "very good about how the first day of the recount went." And while it's possible that Coleman will expand the margin as the recount proceeds, the Franken team was heartened that their position had improved even in traditionally Republican areas."
Now I'm not sure exactly what purpose would be served by counsel spinning this "we're doing very well" stuff. Both camps seem to be doing it, but the numbers are going to be what they're going to be. And nothing the campaigns say will change the vote count at all.
I can understand his optimism if they've counted 3% more Coleman ballots than Franken ones in the precincts completed, but Franken continues to gain (43 votes today).
I think by saying the number is "slightly higher" than the official vote totals he's counting on winning some challenges.
Because very few challenges will be upheld, the party that makes the MOST challenges actually will lose ground once those ballots are inevitably counted.
Perhaps he's thinking about the challenged Franken votes that will ultimately be added to his total, but most all of the Coleman ones will be too.
Despite all the endless speculation it's all going to come down to a few simple problems voters have with their ballots.
The side with the most undervotes will win. And we know that there were more undervotes from Franken counties than Coleman counties.
And virtually ALL the ballots are going to be counted.
So, once all the challenges are thrown out, the winning side will simply be the one with the most undervotes. And that's Franken most likely since his voters had more ballot problems.
His precincts were more urban and their voting machines had more problems and his voters screwed up more by doing things like filling in the wrong oval, then crossing it out and filling in the other one. Machines can't deal with that, but election judges will count all those ballots.
This is a frivolous way to decide an important election. There's no way we'll ever know which of these two worthies actually received more votes on election day.
I don't generally believe in a runoff election, but this is the situation where it would make sense.
Note that Franken is gaining nicely in the first two days of the recount even though, overall, the recount so far has been (cumulatively) in areas that favor Coleman...as shown by the overall counts released at 8 p.m. tonight by the MN Secy of State:
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
Recounted Data
Totals
Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)
534475
43.28
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted)
494804
40.07
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted)
204971
16.60
One interesting thing jumped out at me once I sorted through the data. Franken has consistently managed to gain recount votes in Coleman majority counties, while Coleman has gained only 8 votes from Franken counties - 3 from Big Stone and 5 from Kittson.
If you project this onto the (heavily red) counties that haven't started, you take them almost entirely out of the picture, leaving just the in progress counts and the challenges.
If you do a linear projection of the gained votes (votes gained/% of voters counted), Franken picks up over 232 votes total in those counties not including any additional votes from Dakota, which looks like an outlier. Subtract the net 70 votes he has been credited, and that's a pickup of around 160 votes not including any additional votes from Dakota. However it seems more reasonable to assume that Dakota will regress to the mean of in process Coleman majority counties with positive results for Franken, which would give him another 24 votes.
The result is a Franken win by around 40 votes ignoring challenges.
I'm looking into challenges. One thing I have noticed is that there are 2 major sorts of challenges - those which challenge a counted vote and those which attempt to add or block a new vote. One would expect these classes to have different probabilities of success. There are 823 challenges, reducing the candidates' totals by a combined 285 votes. Ignoring double challenges (yes, there are some) that implies 538 (!) challenges that either attempt to add a new vote or to block the opponents new vote. Maybe Nate has some numbers on what the success rates of different sorts of challenges are.
We shouldn't forget that there is also a challenge to the exclusion of certain absentee ballots that is taking place outside the recount proper. I have no idea how many or on what grounds.
@Jonathan
How is counting all of the votes a frivolous way to determine the outcome? It strikes me that this is how it ought to be.
Science and math be damned, the O'Reilly factor is all that matters. Think about falafel boy, his blood boiling, completely unraveling ala Major Frank Burns (movie Burns)on national TV because Franken is senator.
Here is a serious description of the recount from a Minnesota perspective.
Features explanations of what is considered an acceptable or unacceptable vote.
For a not-so-serious idea of what the recount is like, my friend the Minnesota election judge describes it thusly (I'm paraphrasing): imagine sorting through several 55-gallon drums filled with M&Ms. You're looking to sort them by color, and looking for ones that are smashed, chipped, or otherwise no representative of M&Ms as a candy.
So it's tedious, but that's not the problem, really. The problem is that every now and then, people from the E&E company come by and insist you've actually got one of their candies instead.
The problem with talking about challenges and how they will be resolved is that none of us really know what we are talking about (even after looking at the MPR ballots).
First, there are three categories of challenges (and multiple subcategories within each of these categories): Category A -- votes for the other candidate which the challenger believes to be a vote for neither conteder; Category B -- votes for the other candidate which the challenger believes to be a vote for his/her candidate; and Category C -- ballots in the "other" pile which the challenger believes to be a vote for his/her candidate.
We don't know how many of either candidates challenges fall within each category. If one candidate's challenges are mostly Category C and the challenges are frivolous, they do not effect the vote totals. However, if the challenges are frivoloys and belong to Category A or Category B, when those challenges are denied the other candidate's vote totals will be increased.
Second, we really can't tell how many of the challenges are frivolous even by looking at the ballots. While I think I understand the Minnesota statute, I have not read any of the cases interpreting it. There are going to be some counties where the attorneys representing one side or the other has a better understanding of the standard than the local counting team.
If you looked at the MPR site, some of the ballots had close votes. My personal belief is that the majority vote is legally wrong on two or three of the ballots. However, the interpretation that is going to matter will be the canvassing board. Some of the challenges that folks here think will fail will actually succeed.
Just a small tip for any other would-be-amateur-number-cruncher out there:
there is a nice way to import the data published by Star Tribune into your "favorite" spreadsheet.
-- Go to the site
-- View HTML source
-- find the part with the Table,
Select and copy
-- Create a new file named something.htm
-- Fire Micro$oft Excel
-- Hit "Open" and point to the file you just created.
-- Begin crunching to your heart's content.
Not at my "real" machine, so I can't tell
WV: wisset. say no more.
My latest simple projection: Franken to win by 129.
This assumes that:
- 75% of all challenges are against ballots counted for your opponent (requesting that they be thrown out), while 25% are against ballots that were not previously counted (requesting that they be counted for you).
- 75% of all challenges by either side will be denied.
- Candidates will continue to gain votes in counties where the recount is partially completed at the same rate they have previously been gaining votes in that county
- Candidates will gain votes in counties where the recount has not started at the same rate that they have previously been gaining votes statewide
Note: Holding constant all other assumptions:
- Franken wins regardless of what proportion of challenges are one type vs the other. (ex: Franken wins by 88 if every challenge made so far was against a ballot cast for the opponent)
- Franken wins regardless of the rate at which challenges are upheld - again assuming that this rate is similar for both candidates. (ex: Franken wins by 124 if all challenges are dismissed)
- Franken wins by 67 if there is no net gain for either candidate in any counties where the recount has not yet begun.
- Coleman wins by 142 if there is no net gain for either candidate in any county from this point on
@tmess2
Thanks for that very helpful clarification. Types A and B are pretty much equivalent, since it's hard to imagine many cases when the board will confidently switch a ballot from Fr to Co or vice versa. I'll lump them as type A, and call your type C type B (freeing up the letter C).
If the total number of challenges remains about equal between F and C, then the candidate with more type B challenges is in much better shape. Any data on that distribution?
It can be inferred roughly, with poor statistics, from a precinct-level comparison of the hand audit and the recount, now available on about 100 precincts.
/mbw
Here is something to consider:
Challenges, for the most part, can be of two types. Define a Type I challenge as a claim that what has been judged a vote for your opponent should be a non vote. Define a Type II challenge as a claim that what has been judged a non vote should be a vote for you.
Let us accept, as seems likely, that most challenges are denied. Then when Type I challenges are resolved, they will tend to add to the total of the opposing candidate (since challgned ballots are considered non votes until they are resolved). Type II challenges will tend not to affect the total since they will stay non votes.
If the mix of the types of challenges are different between the two candidates, this would affect the expectation of how the resolving of challenges will impact the net total.
Suppose 1000 challenges each with 95 percent of challenges failing. Suppose Coleman's challenges are 52% Type I and Franken's are 48% Type I. By my calculations, just this modest difference would net Franken 36 votes, which could easily be determinative.
The question then is, do we have any reason to think that the candidates' challenges could be of a different mix? I believe that it is in fact plausible that more of Coleman's challeneges are likely to be of Type I than Franken's. This could arise if Franken supporters are even slightly more likely to mark ballots in a questionable way. It could also, arguably, arise from the philosophical tendencies of conservatives to tend to be more wary of counting a vote that shouldn't count and the liberal tendency to be more wary of failing to count one that should. (In genereal, it seems to me, conservatives fear voter fraud and liberals fear disenfrancihsement).
Just speculating.
Reposting my recent comment with updated data:
My latest simple projection: Franken to win by 16.
This assumes that:
- 75% of all challenges are against ballots counted for your opponent (requesting that they be thrown out), while 25% are against ballots that were not previously counted (requesting that they be counted for you).
- 75% of all challenges, of either kind and by either side, will be denied.
- Candidates will continue to gain votes in counties where the recount is partially completed at the same rate they have previously been gaining votes in that county
- Candidates will gain votes in counties where the recount has not started at the same rate that they have previously been gaining votes statewide
Note: Changing these assumptions, or differentiating them between the two candidates or types of challenge can be done easily. (Differentiating among counties can also be done, although less easily)
Note: Holding constant all other assumptions:
- The winner is dependent on what proportion of challenges are of one type vs the other. (ex: Coleman wins if more than 86% of challenges are of the kind challenging a ballot cast for the opponent)
- Franken wins regardless of the rate at which challenges are upheld - again assuming that this rate is similar for both candidates and both types of challenge. (however, if EVERY last challenge were dismissed, I would predict an exact tie)
- Franken wins by 62 if there is no net gain for either candidate in any counties where the recount has not yet begun.
- Coleman wins by 142 if there is no net gain for either candidate in any county from this point on
- My prediction assumes a net gain of 147 and 105 votes by Franken in St. Louis and Ramsey counties, and a net loss of 62 votes by Franken in Hennepin County - based on the results that have come out of those counties so far.
WTF happened in Renville County? Franken challenged 476 votes in a county where there were only around 6200 Coleman/Franken votes cast in total!
The Star Tribune keeps making drastic revisions to their posted results throughout the day. The most recent posting, and the assumptions listed in my previous posts, lead me to predict Coleman by 70 votes (after all of the challenges have been ruled on).
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便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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