We'll update these numbers "officially" with the Secretary of State's data dump at 8 PM, but based on intraday numbers compiled by the Star Tribune (as of 4:42 PM local time), Norm Coleman's rate of challenges continues to skyrocket while Al Franken's -- though much higher than it had been on the first couple days of the recount process -- has leveled off some.
Coleman's rate of challenges thus far today is approximately 23.4 for every 10,000 ballots cast. On Wednesday, the first day of the recount, Coleman's rate of challenges was 2.5 per 10,000 ballots. So for some reason, the Coleman campaign is finding reason to challenge more than nine times as many ballots as it did on Wednesday (and the Franken campaign, for its part, is finding reason to challenge about five times as many ballots).
Now, the Coleman campaign isn't being devious or anything like that; they're simply exploiting a flawed system and trying to win a spin war. But news organizations should recognize that -- as of about Friday afternoon when the number of challenges skyrocketed -- the entire first phase of the recount process essentially became a spin war. The running totals being reported by the Star Tribune and the Secretary of State are at this point fairly meaningless, and should be denoted as such; we aren't likely to learn very much more about the ultimate winner of the recount until the state canvassing board convenes in December.
11.24.2008
Coleman Challenges Increasing Exponentially
@ 5:54 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
63 comments
First?
Making so many challenges seems almost dangerous on Coleman's part, risking accidental dismissal due to so many reviews.
Xeriar, what do you mean by accidental dismissal? You mean that some of the challenges are of Coleman votes that he might lose?
Dammit, that was a misleading title.
I should've known better.
I'm still confidant, though.
What's the advantage to waging a spin war? Seems to me that final canvass board that will decide the challenged ballots will likely do so consistently. Are they really going to think, "Coleman's ahead after the recount; we'd best let him win or else people will be mad at us?" Granted, there's not much of a downside to challenging ballots. But, I'd guess that the standards for challenging ballots has slipped over time as one side or the other at the precinct level becomes more aggressive in challenging ballots, and if there's any doubt whatsoever, it's better to be safe than sorry and just challenge the ballot. I'm somewhat skeptical of the centrally organized plan to challenge ballots so as to be ahead after the recount is finished and before challenged ballots are adjudicated.
just greaaaaat. the election with 2 guys that nobody can stand is just gonna drag on and and on.......
Part of the ramp-up could just be that the two teams are getting more familiar with what they have to do, so they can go through more ballots per day.
If that's the case, I'd expect the rates to level off eventually (like Franken's might have).
with a difference of only fifty votes (thanks dave k)after you remove the challenges i am starting to believe franken might pull this out.
does anyone know anything about the ballots that supposedly went missing?
Coleman is challenging perfectly clear McCain-Franken ballots in order to create the perception that his "win" might be overturned by the evaluators of said legitimate values.
If there was any doubt that Coleman is shady and corrupt, this erases it.
With only approximately 360,000 Franken votes left to recount, why doesn't Coleman just challenge all the rest now and he could immediately move on to the next phase of the recount, trying to bribe or extort the Canvass Board before they process the challenges?
WV: baolit : I challenge! They spelled "ballot" wrong!
Obviously trying to challenge his way to a lead, then legal maneuver a stolen victory. Scumbag to the bitter end, he will try anything to win. The country and Minn. will be better off with Norm on K Street, skirting scandal while harvesting semi-legal cash.
When will Dems learn? Not devious? Coleman is employing a Bush 2000 strategy!
Coleman has one objective here: he wants to be ahead when the recount is finished but before challenged ballots are resolved. That way, he can loudly declare himself the winner, even if thousands of challenged ballots are uncounted. This will give him legitimacy, and he will in turn argue that Dem attempts to count challenged ballots is Franken's way of "stealing" the race. Watch--this is what will happen.
Why the Dems are sitting on their hands boggles my mind.
I think we can still see though the morass of frivolous challenges. If you take the assumption that all challenges are frivolous (after all, the local board reviewed the ballots and presumably they know election laws far better than either Coleman or Franken challengers), then every county will revert more or less to their pre recount totals (as posited by OldFatGuy in a previous entry). The real question becomes, after applying frivolous challenges to offset losses does anyone stand a chance to gain any more votes? The only way to gain votes in a county (again, assuming that all challenges are frivolous) is for your opponent to over challenge. There are only 4 counties in which there are significant over challenges: Hennepin, Ramsey, St Louis and Anoka. Let’s look at St Louis, as of this post we have C – 51, F -84, Coleman has 188 challenges and Franken has 110 challenges. If we apply frivolous challenges to bring everyone back to 0 then we have 104 over challenges for Coleman and 59 over challenges for Franken. The key question then becomes are Coleman’s 104 challenges made to ballots that the board determined to be Franken votes or is he trying to get Other votes counted as Coleman votes? Given that this is a Franken county I’d say the majority of Coleman’s over challenges are attempts to stop Franken votes that were already deemed legal by the local officials. On the flip side, I’d guess that most of Franken’s over challenges in St Louis are attempts include iffy Franken-leaning scribbles that the locals deemed no vote. The vast majority of Franken’s frivolous over challenges will result in no vote, the vast majority of Coleman’s frivolous over challenges will result in additional votes for Franken. There are over 200 Coleman over challenges in Hennepin, Ramsey and St Louis, with probably another 100 or so to be added if the current rate continues. Looking at large Coleman counties I only see one, Anoka, with any sizeable Franken over challenge (28). In fact, in Dakota, another large Coleman county Franken has actually under challenged by 5, likewise in Washington, Franken is only 2 over. Admittedly, we can’t say for sure how the over challenges will split, but considering that Coleman has very few over challenges in his own counties indicates that the splits are highly likely to come down in Franken’s favor. Methinks Senator Coleman doth protest too much!!
Nate,
The reason for the skyrocket is, I think, a typo. Look at the city results for Bloomington. Out of nowhere, Coleman has 102 challenges where before he had 12. No change in the Franken challenges, no changes in the new votes. Looks like someone put the 1 in the wrong column (sorry if this doesn't fit your Anti-Coleman world view, guys, but sometimes things happen that have nothing to do with that stuff.)
instead of sending either Franken or Coleman to the senate, can we ship both to the moon? and leave them there?
The spin war will become important when this goes to the courts, which is likely. If Coleman leads by a large margin when the recount is over and then loses when the canvassing board throws out all of his frivoulous challenges, he can say that he was treated unfairly by the canvassing boards because they sided with Franken so much more than they did with him.
It just gives Coleman policital cover to take it to the courts if he loses in the final recount numbers.
Senator Al Franken.
Only in Minnesota. (Or California)
Kid G, I mean that swamping the review board with challenges is going to risk seeing some genuinely good challenges get missed due to human error amongst all of the frivolous ones.
The running totals have been meaningless for quite a few days now: as soon as the total number of challenges dwarfed, by a factor of several, the difference between Franken and Coleman at the start of the "recount".
Like I said yesterday, this is about trying to steamroll the process by putting the impression out that Coleman is ahead and that any other result will be "stealing the election' away from him.
I've been looking at the results and in the big Franken counties, Coleman's challenges are sometimes double Franken's. Typical Republican sleazy politics. Will the Dems get screwed again by being 'nice guys'? Hopefully not.
Today's update.
St Louis county just wrapped up. Lots of challenges by the Coleman campaign today. Their current strategy seems to be to challenge anything that's not perfect. In addition to that, they're challenging any "odd" write-ins. Including celebrities, Mickey Mouse, and any ballot that has the same name written in for multiple offices.
And in response to mediapost's assumption that the Franken campaign is challenging mostly "iffy" Franken votes that otherwise would have been dismissed, that's inaccurate. The vast vast majority of the challenged ballots on BOTH sides have been one candidate challenging a vote for another candidate. The process has been very adversarial and involves very little "rescuing" of iffy ballots.
Nate - This is a classic example of the Heisenblogger principle: By observing the process, you've changed it.
I agree with John K.
Coleman is engaging in spin because reality doesn't afford him any useful weapons. For example, the excess number of his challenges (i.e. more than Franken's) in St. Louis and Hennepin counties alone equals almost total the entire amount he is "ahead". Perhaps he thinks he might gain the support of an angry crowd if he loses--all one has to do is think back to how the Republicans in Congress reacted to the possibility of Gore beating Bush during the Florida recount. A GOP congressman from California stated flatly and publicly at that time, "I don't care what happens from now on--Al Gore will never take the oath of office as president."
Same old story, different day. Once the canvassing board issues its decision nobody will have anywhere left to hide.
Brian
That seems right to me, but the Bloomington number just went from 102 to 105. So the person entering data for Bloomington is updating precincts and hasn't noticed his mistake, if there is one.
Maybe he put a 90 where there should be a 9, a 100 where there should be a 10, I don't know.
A lot of this discussion depends upon how the canvass process will unfold.
Given the recount plan and the structure given for the ballots, we know the following as far as how the ballots will arrive at the Canvassing Board.
1) Ballots from separate precincts (and separate counties) are currently separate.
2) Ballots challenged by Franken are currently separate from ballots challenged by Coleman.
We also know that each county will be submitting vote totals for unchallenged ballots.
Based on the foregoing, I expect the Canvassing Board to go county by county (and precinct by precinct within each county). Within each precinct, I expect that they will take up all of one candidate's challenges and then take up the other candidate's challenges. As they rule on each ballot, that ballot will go into one of three piles (Coleman, Franken, and other) based on the ruling. The ballots in each precinct will be counted and added to the county's total. They will then move on to the next precinct. Unless the board keeps a running tab in their head, they will not know who is ahead or behind after the first several precincts of the day.
I just hope that they decide on Wednesday to move up the canvassing process or they could be going all holiday long except for Christmas day itself.
Hi Duluth,
Thanks for the update on the type of challenges that you are seeing, although now I'm much more pessimistic than I was before. From what I've seen the total challanges are about even and if each camp is challenging the other's vote then Franken hasn't got much of a chance. Have you seen many Franken ovals checked with unchecked write-ins (like the lizard people example from MPR)? This causes me a lot concern because I could see young voters checking the oval for Franken, knowing that the scanner is going to pick up their vote and then writing in joke names and not realizing that they just invalidated their ballot in the event of a hand recount.
Look, there's no "spin" advantage whatsoever in making excessive challenges since everyone following this story is fully aware of the frivolous challenges and their implications, and so no one is taking the raw numbers seriously anymore. We're all waiting for the challenge round. In fact, it works just the opposite. A high challenge rate looks desperate, shows weakness. Franken should stick strictly to legitimate challenges.
mediapost:
Nah, that's not really happening all that much. Up here, I don't think I've seen it more than once or twice.
The typo in Bloomington is now being reported as being a mistake.
The number of total challenges between Coleman and Franken are running pretty even.
Nate, looks like your biased view is coming back to bite you in the ass.
I agree with PresidentHussein. The fact of the matter is this type of spin is largely useless to the objective at hand. What hangs in the balance here is not the Presidency or even control of the Senate. It is simply a Senate seat, and although it could be the difference between the filibuster-proof 60 seats, this is something that would only excite or agitate high-information voters.
And as such, these people are unlikely to be fooled by the false spin of excessive challenges. There will never be the uproar and corresponding spin war of 2000 over something that so few people are following closely. My feeling is that this will actually be decided fairly be the canvassing board and the Minnesota courts will uphold their decision.
Although I am pulling for Franken, I feel confident that the process will work as it should, and with a few small exceptions (e.g. Nate's commentary on the Sec. of State reporting challenges as non-votes) I am actually happy to see that Minnesota has a fair process in place for such an event. And unless I see evidence of foul play, I will graciously accept the results which should fairly reflect the will of the voters.
Until then, however, I agree that these current totals are junk.
Michael:
This will be my one and only post to you.
Nate is not bias because he read data that was later corrected.
Nor is it clear to me that we should believe you or other posters who have been spinning like tops since he posted.
At this point, I have taken the wait-and-see attitude with all of this because I find all of this guessing to be useless other than as entertainment.
But when you put someone down for something that logically can not be there bias, then I got to call you on it.
You speak of Nate showing his bias, but what post did was to cause me to question you considering the facts you presented contradict your claim of Nate's bias.
This isn't CNN or Fox News. I really wish some of you would get that. But even if you don't be assured the rest of us do.
Hi Duluth,
Thanks, well at least I won't worry about the Lizard People vote... One more question for you, from what you've seen do you think a Franken challenge has any more of a chance at success than a Coleman challange?
I did a little "computation" y'all might enjoy...
I started by assuming that when Franken challenged a ballot, it was probably marked for Coleman, and when Coleman challenged, it was a Franken ballot.
Then, I went through all the counties and applied the challenged "Franken ballot" (challenged by Coleman, obviously) numbers to Franken's totals, and vice-versa.
I came up with a net gain for Franken of 184 votes, which, subtracted from the certified totals from last week, brings the Coleman advantage to 31 votes, with 30% of the votes still to be counted...
NOW, within that 30% are 25% of the Hennepin votes, and about 60% of the Ramsey votes. These are counties where Franken held his biggest margins.
One last criterion: if one side or the other was MORE FRIVOLOUS than the other, then that would help his opponent in the review by the canvassing board.
Getting exCITing !!
STILL SLANT COLEMAN
By the way, the numbers right now still seem to slant to Coleman.
Can someone explain why with in Hennepin County only 34 percent of Minneapolis has been counted on the MN Tribune site? Am I missing something?
Also the percentage of the vote still is roughly 42 Coleman, and 40 for Franken-- which we know from the final election count is not correct. That means there are still significant Franken votes in the last 30 percent?
Robert said...
Nate - This is a classic example of the Heisenblogger principle: By observing the process, you've changed it.
Robert, nice new theory, but you are the only example of it in Google. I still laughed!!!
The observer effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect_(physics)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle (also known as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle)
The deal with physics, where observation actually changes the results. Staring at ballots will not change the voter's intent. For scientific evidence, see the pretend recount in Florida.
Brian?
Where are you getting the information that the Bloomington number was a mistake? The sTrib is still showing the 105.
Not that I believe the number is actually 105 Coleman challenges to Franken ballots. It's either a typo, mistake, or something unusual.
reelgeist...
Interesting question, and one that puzzles me too. Why is Minneapolis (which should have been counting since last Wed) only 34% of the way through?
The reality is that big cities like to report last, like to make noise, and unfortunately like to come up with the most controversial issues when they have the spot light on you.
Big Joe...
Not to burst your bubble... But Ramsey county went big to Franken because of St Paul. As of today St Paul is all recounted, leaving only the suburbs (which at the very least lean to Coleman).
I'm wondering if it just makes the most sense to check the daily 8PM Minnesota SOS total vote counts after each day's recount and then wait for the vote challenges to be resolved in several weeks.
Any thoughts on this idea?
Ritchie just posted the official unofficial numbers for 11/24, and
the lead is don 152 with each side having same number (1400 vs 1401) of challenges. 74% done.
Why the Strib has the 150 discrepancy in challenges is beyond me.
~ Latte
wv jaessend: "the check is in the e-mail"
@CH Truth,
IMHO, the game now consists of who can launch more challenges. That favors Franken in red precincts: more challenge opportunities. So, bring on the 'burbs!
~ Latte
wv - spruest - most chistmassy. "We have the spruest Hannucha bush in our house!"
Wait until the vote count is done. Here's the problem with all of this stuff. It's entertaining, but we can not possibly know what's going to happen. Why? Because there is an x-factor here in the form of the absentee issue which no one is discussing. Franken has won court approaval in one local that I know. I have not been following it, but what I do know leads me to believe that he may prevail. if he does this will only be one part of the greater fight. But it could make the challenge situation moot if he adds most of those to his total. I also understand there are a lot omore o fthese ballots that were mentioned on mydd, but I didn't follow through since well i was working. Like I said, don't take any of this - whether pro Al, Pro Norm or pessmistic/optimistic etc as being serious. I still think the best estimate I've heard is 50/50. At 2800 challenges at 150, that means even if Al is 5 percent less frivolous than Coleman- he wins. Or maybe Coleman will be less or maybe they will fall into some margin. You also can not tell based on where the vote count is left. Some places like Minneapolis are reportin only 34 percent, but the overall state is 70 something. So its complicated.
CH Truth
St. Paul is not all in. It's in at a somewhat higher rate than the rest of the county.
The outstanding ballots in Ramsey County overall favor Franken. (But not by as much as they would if St. Paul was in at the same rate of the rest of the county, of course.)
The outstanding ballots overall, of course, massively favor Franken because such a large proportion of them are from Minneapolis.
How is today's vote difference down to 152 from the SOS site?
MnLatteLiberal...
The count actually shows Coleman losing 1051 votes and Franken losing 1008 (a 43 vote difference)
That would actually drop the Coleman lead from 215 originall to 172. (not 152).
Nothing from Bloomington that suggests any large increase in ballot challenges for Coleman in their spreadsheet, in fact it shows no update at all in Bloomington.
@reelgeist
The issue of the rejected absentee ballots will be considered when the Canvassing Board meets this Wednesday. Among other things, they will rule on whether those rejected absentee ballots will be considered in the recount or saved for the courts. What Franken won thus far in re those ballots is the list of names of those who cast them there ballots.
With Knaak throwing everything behind saving the rejected ballots for the courts, and Franken side arguing for the examination during the recount, it is not quite clear which way the Board will rule. Strib has a pretty good article on that on their page.
FWIW
~Latte
wv - anaectu - mangled punchline to a joke
@CH Truth,
My penmanship sucks. I gave Franken 20 extra votes because of a typo. Thanks for the catch.
~Latte
St. Paul is not all in. It's in at a somewhat higher rate than the rest of the county.
It was at 84% earlier in the day and the officials there stated they would be done today.
Now it is certainly possible that not all of St Paul will have been reported in time to get in the update on the SOS website, so there may be more tomorrow.
But if anyone is looking "long term" to pick up a bunch of votes in St Paul, it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
On a similar note, earlier this morning the Strib was reporting that St Louis county (with the old optical scanners and all of the iron range Democrats) was 100% counted.
Minneapolis is the last best hope for Franken to pick up votes... but there is another 9 counties that have not even started that have about 250,000 votes total and went about 60-40 for Coleman.
So it's even steven from here on out...
CH Truth
Wrong, there's about 19,000 more Franken votes (as counted on November 4) remaining, so it's not "even Steven" from here on out. It's about 301,000 more Coleman votes out and 320,000 more Franken votes out.
CHTruth,
I have no inside information. I just put two and two together, looking at the numbers as they came in, and applying Ockham's Razor.
As you pointed out, the new official state numbers tonight don't show anything changing since yesterday. More evidence, as far as I'm concerned, that either the Star-Tribune got something wrong, or the counters for Bloomington got something wrong and the state isn't going to report new numbers until it gets straightened out.
With Knaak throwing everything behind saving the rejected ballots for the courts, and Franken side arguing for the examination during the recount, it is not quite clear which way the Board will rule. Strib has a pretty good article on that on their page.
This went to court. Franken sued to get them included before the totals were originally accepted by the Secretary of State. The judge basically ruled that adding rejected absentee ballots was not something you could do untill after certification. Precedent is that it would have to be done as a "contest" just as Al Gore did in 2000.
I think Richie is already skating on thin ice in terms of being seen as neutral. I don't see how he can overrule a judges ruling.
That being said, there were a variety of reports that has stated that the camp was a bit discouraged when they got the list from Ramsey... disappointed in which areas of Ramsy the absentee ballots came from. Traditionally absentee ballots are more Republican than Democrat and in Minnesota even more so. With same day registration, etc... your younger and first time voters hardly ever go absentee.
Hot DAMN I'm good!!!!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html#comment-5795401586608839951
:P
The Star Tribune has fixed the Bloomington glitch, and so the Coleman challenge numbers are now back down to where they should be (i.e., I was right). Not sure what this does to Nate's model.
Oh Biden, I do look forward to your gaffe-tastic self these next four years. I was so afraid it was going to be Chris Dodd for VP. I have nothing against Dodd, he's a nice man and very qualified, but boring, and with a name that suspiciously like like Dudd. Accurate, that, given his performance in the primaries.
I digress. While I like the Bidens, I must admit the idea of a place-holder Senator disturbs me more than a little. For one thing, dynasty politics is unpleasant business in a democracy that was formed as a rejection of European primogeniture. If you were to take a look at just the last names of those holding elected office at the federal level, most of what you would see would be the same names that have been in power for a century, maybe longer. You ahve your Bushes and Clintons and Gores and Stevensons and Kennedys, your Landrieus and your Jacksons. same names, nothing changes when you look at it that way.
And now, we can add the Bidens to that list. American monarchy.
You know, this is kinda why I voted for the big O. My whole life, it,s been either President Bush or President Clinton. I just wanted a change of names, you know? To break up the monotony.
"If you were to take a look at just the last names of those holding elected office at the federal level, most of what you would see would be the same names that have been in power for a century, maybe longer. You ahve your Bushes and Clintons and Gores and Stevensons and Kennedys, your Landrieus and your Jacksons"
HUH??? A century ago, there were no, zero, zip, nil, nada, not a one "Bush" or "Clinton" or "Gore" or "Kennedy" in power, and the "Jacksons" that are prominent now are not, to put it delicately, the same as the Jacksons of long ago. "Stevenson" did have a good long run, but where are there any powerful Stevensons now? I don't know anything about how long the Landrieus have been around, but that's local to Louisiana anyhow; I'd never heard of her before Katrina.
Isn't it devious to exploit a flawed system?
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,約定金生,約定金生,情趣,情趣商品,約定金生,情趣網站,跳蛋, 約定金生,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,約定金生,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,約定金生,情趣內衣,約定金生,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,約定金生,自慰,打手槍,約定金生,潮吹,高潮,後庭,約定金生,情色論譠,影片下載,約定金生,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,約定金生,音樂下載, 約定金生,約定金生,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套, 約定金生,約定金生,做愛,約定金生,減肥,美容,瘦身,約定金生,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車, 約定金生,手機,來電答鈴, 約定金生,週年慶,美食,約定金生,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計, 約定金生,室內設計, 約定金生,靈異照片,約定金生,同志,約定金生,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,約定金生,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍, 約定金生,無名破解,av女優, 約定金生,小說,約定金生,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,約定金生,討論區,痴漢,懷孕, 約定金生,約定金生,美女交友,約定金生,交友,日本av,日本,機票, 約定金生,香水,股市, 約定金生,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,約定金生,免費影片,醫學美容, 約定金生,免費算命,算命,約定金生,姓名配對,姓名學,約定金生,姓名學免費,遊戲, 約定金生,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,約定金生,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,約定金生,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片, 約定金生,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表, 約定金生,線上電視,約定金生,線上a片,約定金生,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,約定金生,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車, 約定金生,約定金生,法拍屋,約定金生,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,約定金生,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,約定金生,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, 約定金生, G點,性感內衣,約定金生,情趣內衣,約定金生,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,約定金生,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,約定金生,後庭,情色論譠,約定金生,影片下載,約定金生,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,約定金生,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,約定金生,軟體下載,約定金生,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,約定金生,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片, 約定金生,同志,聊天室,約定金生,運動彩券,,大樂透,約定金生,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍, 約定金生,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,約定金生,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢, 約定金生,懷孕,約定金生,美女交友,約定金生,交友,日本av ,日本,機票, 約定金生,香水,股市, 約定金生,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,約定金生,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命, 約定金生,姓名配對,姓名學, 約定金生,姓名學免費,遊戲,約定金生,好玩遊戲,約定金生,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,約定金生,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視, 約定金生,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯, 約定金生,購物車,身分證製造機,約定金生,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網, 約定金生,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,約定金生,六合彩,整型論壇,整型論壇,珠海,雷射溶脂,婚紗,網頁設計,水噹噹論壇,台中隆鼻,果凍隆乳,改運整型,自體脂肪移植,新娘造型,婚禮顧問,下川島,常平,常平,珠海,澳門機票,香港機票,貸款,貸款,信用貸款,宜蘭民宿,花蓮民宿,未婚聯誼,網路購物,婚友,婚友社,未婚聯誼,交友,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,未婚聯誼, 婚友社,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,婚友,未婚聯誼,婚友社,未婚聯誼,單身聯誼,單身聯誼,白蟻,白蟻,除蟲,老鼠,減肥,減肥,在家工作,在家工作,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 ,
外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇
外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿喜帖囍帖卡片外遇外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇剖析 外遇調查 外遇案例 外遇諮詢 偷情 第三者外遇話題 外遇發洩 感情挽回 徵信社 外遇心態 外遇 通姦 通姦罪 外遇徵信社徵信社外遇 外遇 抓姦徵信協會徵信公司 包二奶 徵信社 徵信 徵信社 徵信社 徵信社 徵信社 徵信 徵信 婚姻 婚前徵信 前科 個人資料 外遇 第三者 徵信社 偵探社 抓姦 偵探社 偵探社婚 偵探社 偵探社偵探家事服務家事服務家電維修家事服務家事服務家事服務家事服務家事服務持久持久持久持久持久持久持久離婚網頁設計徵信社徵信社徵信徵信社外遇離婚協議書劈腿持久持久持久持久持久劈腿剖析徵信徵信社外遇外遇外遇外遇徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信徵信社徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社
自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,性感睡衣,情趣內衣,比基尼內衣,人妻少婦性感睡衣,
失戀,性愛,性感,情慾,調情,挑逗,慾望,情人節禮物,自慰器,
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment