“And I swore I’d be in Chicago tomorrow, and made sure of that, taking a bus to Chicago, spending most of my money, and didn’t give a damn, just as long as I’d be in Chicago tomorrow.”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
-- photo by Steve Marlowe; Quinn (left), Marty (right)
Organizers of America,
H-Hour, D-Day is upon you.
After the election, when you can talk, email me your stories, because there's more to say about what you did. [pocket99s@gmail.com]
For the organizers, the volunteers, every damn brave last one of you:
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian.'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispian's day.'
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
-- William Shakespeare, Henry the DXXXVIII
For he to-day who sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.
494 comments
This is amazing.
And I am so proud to be part of this.
SECOND
For McCain and Palin
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........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
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Will there be a Georgia Surprise?
John McCain must beat Obama by a margin of at least 45 points, and keep Obama to less than 27% among white voters in order to feel safe about the great State of Georgia.
This is a conservative calculation because it assumes record white turnout (81%) and no extra black turnout enthusiasm; i.e., black turnout kept at par with population split.
Put it another way, Obama wins GA almost every time he gets more than 28% of the vote.
wv = entaupoi - feeling of catharsis as one screams in joy as Obama victory is called on TV.
Anyone happen to know where I can get the Zogby Interactive electoral map from a few months ago? You know, the insane one that had Obama winning Arizona and Georgia?
WV: "inglys". George Bush dunt speek inglys so gud.
I want, so much, to be proud of my president again.
One last lovely photo. I want the one on the right. :)
Thanks so much for the ride, Sean & Brett.
MN Senate: Final Debate Recap
Norm Coleman on the Ropes
Obama 377, McCain 161
Nate,
Methinks you've got one hell of a future after this election.
Great work, brother. Keep it up.
Taking a break to eat, been G'in OTV all day today and all night tonight. LETS BRING THIS SHIT HOME!!!!!!ONE!
OK, I just don't need to be more emotional today than I already am. *sniff*
You guys have really done a remarkable thing recording this for history.
wv-auggiest "You guys are the auggiest."
Nice photo of Bedford and Exeter there.
Nate!
If you read this before you go on Olbermann, please ask him about Miss Precious Perfect.
Thanks.
Henry V? lol
We're getting a bit carried away here, but what the hell.
w00t w00t
@ Wesley
Ben Affleck was HILARIOUS portraying Keith Olbermann. I was busting a gut.
Couldn't find any Uhmerrican poets to quote? Why this lily-livered europeen?
How weirdly prophetic... I was literally just talking to my wife last night about how Obama's such a great orator and discussing the qualities that make a great speech - and I used this exact Saint Crispin's Day speech as an example of the pure power of inspirational speech writing and orating. Kenneth Branagh nailed this in the movie version.
No, Henry the 538th!
Oh and Sean, too!
Sorry buddy, didn't mean to leave you out :)
Nate, adjust your tie!
Shakespeare said it best. Rock on!
Nate and 538.com on Olberman now
This is awesome and tomorrow is going to be an awesome day.
Tucker Bounds said
"McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds concedes that Democrats have done a good job of motivating supporters to get to the polls in early voting states. McCain "encourages it, but it's not the primary driver of our get out the vote effort," Bounds said. "And I think that's in sharp contrast to the Democrats, who have prioritized early voting."
Lol
They have no F*#$ing clue.
SHOW ME CHANGE BABY!
WOW NATE, FIRE YOUR STYLIST! THOSE GLASSES NEED TO GO!!!
I like what you did with the "Henry the DXXXVIII" there :-)
OH oh....Olberman a concern troll....."well Im still worried"....
Sean, you bastard. I nearly got through the day with dry eyes.
I started reading this post aloud. Within seconds, my mother joined me from across the room, word for word. She had her copy of Henry V already sitting out, with that page folded down.
WV: Fressese. A new combination hair gel and deodorant.
The 21st century starts tomorrow.
First major polls open - 9 hours, 45 minutes
First polls close - 21 hours, 45 minutes
Winner declared (estimate) - 26 hours, 45 minutes
Off topic, maybe, but I absolutely love the Kerouac stuff.
In Chicago tomorrow!
Grant Park, baby!
Marcos, those are his Halloween glasses I think: a real 'treat' for the viewers.
What does "wv:" mean? I'm not up with the blog comments speak. Also, Sean, you're cute. PS great job by the way.
CloudyFuture said...
OH oh....Olberman a concern troll....."well Im still worried"....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you're not concerned, then you're insane.
Reconvene the roundtable, we want Camelot again.
BOOTH OF DESPAIR, Ohio, Tuesday (NNN) — Americans today committed egregious acts of democracy to elect the next failed administration and the next failed Congress.
Voting boothIn a fabulous upset, almost no-one could bear to vote directly for either of the official candidates, instead opting for a write-in vote. Popular write-ins included “the black guy”, “the old guy”, “McCain from 2000” and “Tina Fey.” The seventeen votes for “The Invisible Man” were tallied for Joe Biden. Several tons of Liquid Paper needed to be scraped off voting machines.
The winning candidate turned out to be Noneof Theabove, 46, of Dogshit, Nebraska. Apart from the Presidency, Mr Theabove won 72% of Congressional seats and all Senate seats up for election this year.
Mr Theabove’s policies include drinking, shouting abuse at the television and inchoate existential despair. “He completely embodies the national mood,” said Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, just before applying for a new job flipping burgers.
A majority of US soldiers in Afghanistan stated the place was “just fine, really” and they were learning to speak Pashto rather than returning. Canada looked south and snickered, though not very much as they still had Stephen Harper to cope with. The Kingdom of Mexico stated its “regret” today that it has had to close its borders to American refugees.
Blog post: http://notnews.today.com/2008/11/04/america-chooses-none-of-the-above/
Nate kicks ass and gets on TV so much he doesn't have time to tell us. The glasses are sexy because the brain behind them is killer. At least you're not raising your eyebrows so much tonight ;)
You're getting way better on TV. I hope/expect that you get some offers for more consistent gigs on the tv.
more consistent gigs on tv? for what, kathie? the election will be over, nate will go back into his geek shaped cubbyhole and the world be as it was. The End.
Here's an awesome one: today I got a huge (9x11) full color direct mail ad from the FL Republican Party that had a very cozy, very obviously photoshopped of John McCain and Hillary smiling at each other. The ad was all about how Hillary left "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling" and how "she and John McCain have show the American people proven results." In a "personal note" McCain writes, "I share Senator Clinton's goals of promoting women..."
This ad was paid for by the FL Republican Party and is being mailed to registered Democratic women (like me). I wish there was still time to do something with it because this thing is hilarious.
I can't wait to watch the results come in tomorrow with my grandparents and my two young boys. They aren't old enough to realize what it means but when they grow up and ask I'll be able to tell them we were on the right side of history- that we saw the paths that were laid before us and we chose the one that was best for them and their children- that we chose to take the high road and take back our democracy. That we dared to hope....
Please just VOTE
A question about NC.
I'm looking at the early voting and it shows 50% for Dems and 30% for Reps with 73% of the state already voting.
Doesn't this give Obama a very good chance at the state? Because I don't see it in the poll numbers.
Go to vote.
Go gentlemen every man unto his charge,
Let not our babbling dreams affright our souls;
Conscience is but a word that cowards use,
Devised at first to keep the strong in awe,
Our strong arms be our conscience, swords our law.
March on, join bravely, let us to it pell mell,
If not to heaven then hand in hand to Hell.
[A more sinister reference]
Nate is getting a lot of play on Keith O tonight.
Pat Buchanan, in between stupid gaffaws, said tomorrow night might be a "reverse-Reagan"
wv: dismsio - What Sedona, AZ will do to its most prominent resident.
I don't know, ass'ole, there's actually governing to do after the election, or, as a Republican, do you not realize that?
The Bush admin sure could have used a portion of Nate's counting abilities to try to get that bailout they asked for through, for example.
Nate certainly has more of substance to say than you do.
if it will feed nothing else, it will feed my revenge. He hath disgraced me, and hindered me half a million; laughed at my losses, mocked at my gains, scorned my nation, thwarted my bargains, cooled my friends, heated mine enemies; and what's his reason? I am an atheist. Hath not an atheist eyes? hath not an atheist hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions? fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer, as a Christian is? If you prick us, do we not bleed? if you tickle us, do we not laugh? if you poison us, do we not die? and if you wrong us, shall we not revenge? If we are like you in the rest, we will resemble you in that. If an atheist wrong a Christian, what is his humility? Revenge. If a Christian wrong an atheist, what should his sufferance be by Christian example? Why, revenge. The villany you teach me, I will execute, and it shall go hard but I will better the instruction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF6_mh1YaJQ
Thanks Branaugh....
I saw a TV report tonight from Virginia which featured about 5 GOP supporters huddled in a circle, praying to God to help deliver a McCain victory.
a "reverse Reagan"? Meaning what??
["dinar"--an actual word for once!]
@zebra450
Before the 1960s, the Democratic Party was far and away the dominant party of the South. A lot of people in the South still register by default as Democrats even though they always vote Republican.
wv= ircomens - unit of voter micro-targeting analysis used by the Obama campaign in GOTV and ad spend calculations.
andy js said...
"I saw a TV report tonight from Virginia which featured about 5 GOP supporters huddled in a circle, praying to God to help deliver a McCain victory."
Well, this sums it up perfectly doesn't it.
kudos for the st. crispin's day speech, which i memorized in order to shout it at appropriate drunken moments. i have a feeling one such will come about midnight tomorrow.
nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.
Ooooooo Kathie what an insult- calling me a 'Republican'! Pathetic worm of a girl.
"NC. I'm looking at the early voting and it shows 50% for Dems and 30% for Reps with 73% of the state already voting.Doesn't this give Obama a very good chance at the state? Because I don't see it in the poll numbers."
Yes and no. Party ID can be misleading in the south, as there are many registered democrats who regularly vote GOP for president.
On the other hand, a lot more Dems have voted early this year compared to 2004...and the racial demographics are highly encouraging for Obama.
Meaning a coalition that will hold for a few decades where repubs and dems agree to disagree about a few things for their common good.
wv- chaphi-how this obama victory feels under the collar of Hannity's ilk
Such a timely piece (especially if you like the musical Les Miserable ;)):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0
wv: reboxyro -> the original prototype by a large shoe maker
I told my friends I'd be incredibly hungover on the fifth...one way or another....
Reich-wingers are passing out plungers on the streets of Houston near a polling place on West Gray....I'm not kidding.
This is my first post but I am sure I check this site at least 9,000 times a day. Nate i would be vomiting right now if it weren't for this site...you have a calming effect...now if your wrong I'm going to find you and puke in your shoes....kidding of course
great work and now i can't wait for the next elections to get obsessed all over again...I am going to go thru withdraw for weeks after this you've become my closest friend, well at least the one I spend the most time with. Until next time
cheers
derek
Andy JS said...
I saw a TV report tonight from Virginia which featured about 5 GOP supporters huddled in a circle, praying to God to help deliver a McCain victory.
++++++++++++++++
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27488710/
"While politicians are making their final pitch to voters, religious Americans from across the political spectrum are appealing to a higher power on the candidates' behalf.
"We have just days to pray that someone who upholds the sanctity of life and marriage between one man and one woman will win," said Pam Olsen, co-pastor with her husband of the International House of Prayer in Tallahassee, Fla.
Olsen, who personally supports Republican John McCain, is organizing a marathon of prayer, fasting and Bible reading at the Capitol starting Saturday until the state's polls close.
"The outcome is up to God," she said."
Wait...did someone say Free plungers???!!!
Guess they did not know God had already made his decision.
Andy,
Here’s one for you:
Two fighters get in the ring and they both bless themselves. One announcer leans over to the other and says, ”Hey, does it help if they bless themselves?” The other announcer says, ”Only if they can fight!”
Dammit, you just made me cry. I'm a sucker for politics combined with the best poetry in the English language.
These are the same people that prayed for Bush. I think god will make his own choices this time around.
"The outcome is up to God," she said."
It's gonna suck when they realize Obama's God can beat up their God
Thanks for the clarification Hari.
Eric's 538 Final Projection for 2008:
I'm not going to hedge for the purpose of looking good. A lookin' good hedge would predict somewhere around 340-355 electoral votes. That leaves lots of flexibility to cliam you were close. I've just got one shot at this, so I'm gonna make it count by keepin' it real. Here it is,
Electoral Votes:
Obama 396
McCain 142
Popular Vote:
Obama 52.1%
McCain 46.7%
Third PArties 1.2%
Relevant potential swing states:
Obama victories
Michigan +12
Oregon +12
Wisconsin +11
New Mexico +10
Iowa +10
Washington +10
Nevada +9
Minnesota +9
Pennsylvania +8
New hampshire +7
Virginia +6
Colorado +6
Florida +4
North Carolina +3
Ohio +3
Montana +3
Missouri +2
Indiana +2
North Dakota +2
Georgia +0-1
McCain victories
Arkansas +10
Tennessee +9
Alaska +9
Louisiana +8
West Virginia +8
Texas +8
Mississippi +6
Arizona +3
Omaha +1
58 Senators for Dems 1 runoff in GA
Jason B said...
Wait...did someone say Free plungers???!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yup. Apparently that's all it takes to be considered a "plumber" now days
How will they all feel when god "ignores" their prayers this round?
wv: Religious balls will explatic on election night.
'Olsen, who personally supports Republican John McCain, is organizing a marathon of prayer, fasting and Bible reading at the Capitol starting Saturday until the state's polls close.'
Hopefully they are so busy praying they don't have time to go vote
Re: NC. Yup, Zebra. You've got the numbers right. It's gonna be tough for McCain to catch up.
Yay.
WV: clara. McCain is the Aunt Clara of Politics.
andy js said...
"I saw a TV report tonight from Virginia which featured about 5 GOP supporters huddled in a circle, praying to God to help deliver a McCain victory."
If they were good humble Christians, they would be praying for G-d to deliver what is best for the country and world. But, no, they are too damn cocksure of their own righteousness...
Voting in Jersey tomorrow and have NO idea what kind of lines to expect.
I have NEVER waited on a line to vote here before; will be interesting to see if tomorrow's any different!
Problem is there are plenty of liberal Christians praying for Obama.
FWIW, God wants us to save souls, not votes.
Wait...did someone say FREEPER plungers???!!!
wv: Keep praink for McCain to win.
"I saw a TV report tonight from Virginia which featured about 5 GOP supporters huddled in a circle, praying to God to help deliver a McCain victory."
Hey, if you see those guys please ask them to also pray for a lessening of the national debt: $10.5 trillion is just a bit ridiculous. I'm sure if G-d is busy rigging a McCain victory then s/he has time to help us out with our little borrowing problem as well.
As an organizer in New Mexico I can honestly say that this has been an Amazing experience, I will never forget it. The feeling in this room is amazing!!! Back to work now, happily.
I believe Juan Williams of Fox is voting for Obama. His tune has changed a great deal since the primaries. I can remember the night of the Michelle Obama's convention speech and the kids coming out on stage how he was nearly in tears talking about the significance of seeing a postive african-american family.
Perfect. And "Crispin Crispian" a week ago Saturday.
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here.
It'll shake em up worse to realize that Obama's God is their God.
"FWIW, God wants us to save souls, not votes."
The problem.
wv: What a bunch of horche-shit.
You guys realize that the whole nation of Kenya is going to be staying up waiting for the results tomorrow. When Obama wins, the country is going to go berserk.
Will be interesting to see how it goes.
"doctor" matt, you're ONE ANGRY LIBTARD.
CRAZY ANGRY LEFT.
LOL AT COMMUNITY ORGANIZERS.
Homer S: "Hey Flanders. It's no use praying, I already did that, and we can't both win"
Oh my god... I'm watching West Wing right now, Season Seven. Does anyone else find the parallels between the dramatized election and this election a little concerning. I mean some of them are a stretch and obviously there are differences, but it's freaky.
You have a very liberal, none white Democrat who can speak inspiringly running against a Republican which is known for bucking the norm. The parallels abound, but the most interesting is when the Republican on both sides has to sell out to the religious right to keep their campaign alive. McCain had to appoint Palin, Vinick had to appoint Sullivan.
When they run into trouble both campaigns swing from the right and start talking about values etc. In both the WW and McCain's campaign an otherwise good man lets himself get overrun by the fringe minority of his party.
There are all sorts of other parallels as well, such as Leo and Obama's Grandmother. A major crisis in both instances allows the Democratic candidate to get the upper hand. I just hope it doesnt go all the way and leave us with a nail-biter election. Still, at least we know who will prevail :-)
My prediction:
Obama - 278 McCain 260
Obama gets Kerry + IA + CO + NV + NM
@ass'ole
"pathetic worm of a girl"?
Project much.
Oh sorry, that's probably too advanced a concept for you-- I'm rubber and you're glue
My friend is traveling for a year and made plans to be in Kenya for the election to document/take pics etc...
I can't wait to see it!
Joey---Jersey don't do lines
Dead Cat Bounce said...
You guys realize that the whole nation of Kenya is going to be staying up waiting for the results tomorrow. When Obama wins, the country is going to go berserk.
Will be interesting to see how it goes.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
No but I think I read/heard Obama, Japan is going to have a big rally for Obama if he wins....
Ok, now my prediction: 348 - 190.
Mc takes Ohio, plus Missouri and Indiana, along with ND and MT.
Obama storms down the east coast taking PA (of course) VA NC GA and Fl. Obama also takes CO and NV.
Drive safely!!
So great to talk with you today Sean!
My friend was freaking out about today's polls. Practically in tears. I told her I wasn't going to worry until Nate told me to worry....
wryomer: Not how I'd describe the Simpson head of household, that's for sure. Do'oh!
"The outcome is up to God," she said."
Someone should tell this lady, and the rest of the religious psychos that God is NOT THEIR PERSONAL GENIE!
My friend was freaking out about today's polls. Practically in tears. I told her I wasn't going to worry until Nate told me to worry....
What's there not to like about today's polls?
@liam
Since Santos was based on Obama, it's more that it's prophetic.
From the same:
Every subject's duty is the king's, but every subject's soul is his own.
Wiser words are rarely spoken.
Oh, and this one's for you, Nate:
A victory is twice itself when the victor brings home full numbers.
If you haven't seen either film version of "Henry V," go and find one. Right now. Either one - Olivier's 1944 version or Branagh's from 1989 - they're both magnificent. Fast-forward to the "Band of brothers" speech. Listen. Be spellbound. Remember that last year at this time nobody gave Barack Obama much chance of being at the threshold of history on this night. And most of all - claim your part in history: VOTE!
Rove prediction:
O 338
M 200
But presumes M holding ND & IN by 1%, MO and NC by less than 1%
http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf
Appropriate EV: scryperp
"Oh my god... I'm watching West Wing right now, Season Seven. Does anyone else find the parallels between the dramatized election and this election a little concerning. I mean some of them are a stretch and obviously there are differences, but it's freaky."
if been talking to friends about this for months, always listing a new parallel (e.g. the financial vs. the nuclear meltdown)
The NYT recently had an article on this, stating that Santos was actually modelled after Obama:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/arts/television/30wing.html?scp=1&sq=west%20wing&st=cse
El Oso said...
"The outcome is up to God," she said."
Someone should tell this lady, and the rest of the religious psychos that God is NOT THEIR PERSONAL GENIE!
++++++++++++++++++
I think she was more implying that people voting for Obama are godless and will burn in hell for voting for him....
Badgerhair,
Yeah, prophetic is about right actually.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but some WW writers are working for the Obama campaign right? No wonder they're winning if they're that prophetic.
LOL just got the Henry the DXXXVIII joke....
If Obama wins, they'll be big celebrations in Kenya, but they could be followed by big demonstrations and even riots.
Why? Because the presidential candidate who should have won the election there - who happens to be from the same ethnic group as Obama's father - was denied victory by massive fraud. An Obama victory means they have a president from their ethnic group in the USA but not their home country.
Charles Crook said...
Rove prediction:
O 338
M 200
But presumes M holding ND & IN by 1%, MO and NC by less than 1%
http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
sadly freepers already debunked that rove projection....or so they claim....
There was just a 527 Obama ad on KO that showed scenes of people losing homes, etc finishing with a picture of McCain and Bush. It had a wonderful old Simon & Garfunkle soundtrack. Really understated and effective for BO. If it has been shown before I missed it.
"We have just days to pray that someone who upholds the sanctity of life and marriage between one man and one woman will win," said Pam Olsen, co-pastor with her husband of the International House of Prayer in Tallahassee, Fla.
They're co-pastors at IHoP?
Can I get a short stack of blessings and a couple of prayers, easy-over?
WV: rebing - When one bing just isn't enough.
Does Raymond realise that Shakespeare was acting as spin doctor for Henry Tudor in unfairly maligning Richard III - a bit like Republican smear campaigns really.
@ Sean
BRAVO!!
@ El Oso
The outcome may well be up to God, given that for many in the Obama army, this campaign represents the triumph of good over the incredible evil sown by W, the neocons, and the McPalin sorriest excuse for a campaign!
The 527 Wright ad has playing every other commercial in NYC for the past few days.
It makes me laugh.
"sadly freepers already debunked that rove projection"
lol. The circular firing squad expands to admit more participants.
Lol, on this topic, did everyone read the script that Sorkin wrote a while back. He set up a scenario in which Obama met Bartlet.
Speaking of which, that's a pretty stark difference. Currently we have Bush, they had Bartlet. We should point out that that is not even a close parallel.
Yes that stupid fucking shit is playing in NC every other ad as well. It doesn't make me laugh here. I'm afraid it will trick people into being stupid.
John McCain's Path to the White House:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/11/03/karl_rove_predicts_obama_blowo.html#more
The only time I care about Karl Rove is when he says Obama will win in a landslide.
Just something to help the worriers (like me)through the night.
@ keith
Sanctity of marriage? Backing the admitted aldulterer candidate McCain, who cheated on his disabled wife and left her for the Cindy gold?
It's not Shakespeare---but here is a little Dylan for those praying
Oh my name it is nothin'
My age it means less
The country I come from
Is called the Midwest
I's taught and brought up there
The laws to abide
And that land that I live in
Has God on its side.
Oh the history books tell it
They tell it so well
The cavalries charged
The Indians fell
The cavalries charged
The Indians died
Oh the country was young
With God on its side.
Oh the Spanish-American
War had its day
And the Civil War too
Was soon laid away
And the names of the heroes
I's made to memorize
With guns in their hands
And God on their side.
Oh the First World War, boys
It closed out its fate
The reason for fighting
I never got straight
But I learned to accept it
Accept it with pride
For you don't count the dead
When God's on your side.
When the Second World War
Came to an end
We forgave the Germans
And we were friends
Though they murdered six million
In the ovens they fried
The Germans now too
Have God on their side.
I've learned to hate Russians
All through my whole life
If another war starts
It's them we must fight
To hate them and fear them
To run and to hide
And accept it all bravely
With God on my side.
But now we got weapons
Of the chemical dust
If fire them we're forced to
Then fire them we must
One push of the button
And a shot the world wide
And you never ask questions
When God's on your side.
In a many dark hour
I've been thinkin' about this
That Jesus Christ
Was betrayed by a kiss
But I can't think for you
You'll have to decide
Whether Judas Iscariot
Had God on his side.
So now as I'm leavin'
I'm weary as Hell
The confusion I'm feelin'
Ain't no tongue can tell
The words fill my head
And fall to the floor
If God's on our side
He'll stop the next war.
"They're co-pastors at IHoP? "
LOL
wv: After tomorrow, the 538 trolls will become our expets.
Gentlemen,
You have done more than anyone else in the last two years of political analysis and commentary to slay the dragons of fear, uncertainly and doubt.
Thank you so much for your excellent work.
See you in Grant Park tomorrow night.
Reader X
There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail:
There gloom the dark broad seas. My mariners,
Souls that have toiled, and wrought, and thought with me—
That ever with a frolic welcome took
The thunder and the sunshine, and opposed
Free hearts, free foreheads—you and I are old;
Old age had yet his honour and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.
The lights begin to twinkle from the rocks:
The long day wanes: the slow moon climbs: the deep
Moans round with many voices. Come, my friends,
'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.
It may be that the gulfs will wash us down:
It may be we shall touch the Happy Isles,
And see the great Achilles, whom we knew.
Though much is taken, much abides; and though
We are not now that strength which in the old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are,
One equal-temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Lord Tennyson
bobnsj said...
There was just a 527 Obama ad on KO that showed scenes of people losing homes, etc finishing with a picture of McCain and Bush. It had a wonderful old Simon & Garfunkle soundtrack. Really understated and effective for BO. If it has been shown before I missed it.
That's been running (here in Philadelphia) for a few days -- this is the BEST commercial I've seen all season.
Some people in a New Hampshire hamlet get to vote in the middle of the night, I've heard, and the results are declared almost immediately. Anyone know what time that takes place?
"Lol, on this topic, did everyone read the script that Sorkin wrote a while back. He set up a scenario in which Obama met Bartlet."
Yeah, I read it. I especially liked the passage where Bartlet told Obama to get more angry and stick it to McCain when he (who married rich money) is calling him (who grew up in a single-parent family which was sometimes dependent on foodstamps) one more time "an elitist".
Prediction: Two closest places are Georgia and Omaha. Georgia will be the closest by %. Omaha Neb Dis 2 will decided by less than 1000 votes. Georgia by less than 0.5%.
I think Jim Martin wins his race vs Saxby Chambliss about 49.5% to 47.5%. The winner must get 50% or a runoff. In the runoff, I think Saxby wins and the Dems have something to be frustrated about.
Just an observation from Michigan: There is a lot of activity from the "Republican Trust PAC" on the airwaves. Rev. Wright stuff and so on. No Obama response. I doubt that it can swing the vote here, but it might matter in competetive house races (MI-7 and MI-9).
Andy just after midnight
This is what makes me love Obama
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/04/2409738.htm?section=justin
This man is so authentic. This election is about Obama. On one side they talk about change, on the other side they talk about fear.
I'm on the West Coast and my canvassing shift tomorrow is from 9am to 9pm so I'm hoping it will all be over by the time I get home.
I'm really proud to be part of this.
WV: celinge Tomorrow, Barack Obama breaks through the ulitmate glasse celinge.
phillychuck said...
bobnsj said...
There was just a 527 Obama ad on KO that showed scenes of people losing homes, etc finishing with a picture of McCain and Bush. It had a wonderful old Simon & Garfunkle soundtrack. Really understated and effective for BO. If it has been shown before I missed it.
++++++++++++++++++++
ya first time I have seen that....but that wright ad is run every commercial break on all stations....getting really annoying watching that ad....cant wait till this is over....its interupting my football watching....
@ deadcatbounce
Pat Buchanan was talking about a reverse 1984 map.
On the shylock quote, I should have used "gay" instead of "atheist", to make it clear I was talking about Proposition Hate.
live from new york...
I think Buchanan may be onto something---don't like his polotics---but the man knows polotics.
disact-Can Nate disact this election anymore
Eric posts,
"Electoral Votes:
Obama 396
McCain 142"
Wow! You're the first predicter to go more optimistic than me. I've been saying O 387, M 151 for weeks. I also think the pop-vote margin will be insane, mid-double-digits; unfortunately a lot of that will be running up the score in safe states, but still.
So, if I'm the closest, do I win a date with Nate?
swertes!
polotics-ticks that attack Ralph Lauren
You really need to parse Buchanan's words. He will have a really meaty, honest political statement surrounding by two acrimonious, 1980-style over-the-top statements.
Thanks Sean. I cried
McCain was just on Monday-SNL. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama shows up, too.
Yeah, I've just realized that if the Republicans are going to lose, for people like Pat Buchanan, the bigger the defeat, the better. Because they can say that right-wing voters should start supporting all their conspiracy theories and oddball organizations.
Is it tomorrow yet? BAH!!
The time is now 3:08pm, Tueaday Nov. 4, in Wellington, New Zealand.
I'm in the future and yet we know nothing! :)
"polotics-ticks that attack Ralph Lauren"
LOL
wv: colarf is when you larf with someone else.
It's the evening of November 3rd, 2008 at Obama National Headquarters: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0
Former VA Governor Wilder (and current Richmond Mayor) is talking about voting lines in Richmond and Norfolk. I want electronic voting machines to be banned.
sadly freepers already debunked that rove projection....or so they claim....
Bad internals, I presume...
Predictions? O 404, M 134. That is everything pink turning blue, with GA and AZ, but without one of MT and ND. Senate 57/40. Margin, nevertheless, only 10 points, with 1.5% third-party.
I call AZ for Obama on the sympathy vote from the elderly population.
While you guys will be in Chicago tomorrow for the victory celebration, I will be doing some campaigning of my own up and down the Las Vegas Strip with a red white and blue hat I own and a couple of professionally printed sandwich board signs-but the campaigning will be publicity for my film and book project (which could also turn into quite a Las Vegas major showroom show, given the opportunity) Cutting Confessions. There is a major convention starting here tomorrow and hopefully the majority of the people I encounter will not be angry but happy. I expect tomorrow to be a very good day for Barack Obama and could not be happier for him. I won't of course be officially campaigning but if anybody asks I will be more than happy to talk about Barack Obama and if I meet angry McCain supporters along the way, I'm going to do my best to stay neutral. Overall, I expect quite a celebration mood here tomorrow and it should be a really good time even though I'll obviously feel horribly embarrassed and there will be plenty of detractors as usual. But then I think of our soon to be President-Elect and how he has turned his own personal dream into reality and I am sure the number of detractors I've encountered are minimal compared to all the negativity Barack Obama has encountered-and has beaten soundly. Quite a remarkable campaign, quite a remarkable man.
Cutting Confessions:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/370392338
OK, I'm going with Ken Ruden's final outcome which is pretty conservative.
O: 291
M: 247
A close election but a decisive victory nonetheless!
SEAN IS A PARTISAN HACK. AND A DOUCHEBAG.
My prediction:
Obama wins Kerry States plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia.
Former Governor Wilder was on British TV earlier today saying that he was concerned that the number of paper ballots may not be enough to cope with the turnout, and that he'd been on the phone to the current governor of Virginia about it.
That extra EV from Omaha would be great for Obama. No-one has a clue whether he has a chance there because there's obviously been no polling in that district.
Hey, can someone offer me a site where I can watch US news streams from outside the US?
I'm in Australia and I've been trying to work out where to spend the next 24hours on the internet. I'm going to a pub to watch it at one point, but I'm wondering if there's a place I should hang to see it up till then.
Dmitry,
Your one, unsubstantiated claim obviously trumps the intense mathematical modelling and see through process Nate uses to give us our polling data. You've convinced me.
P.S. I hope the sarcasm of that statement came across...
@ liam...
I'm sure cnn.com will have it streaming live.
@Liam, cnn.com/live should have a live feed tomorrow.
I, for one, had to deal with the Texas caucuses for the Dems. It was a nightmare due to turnout. Uinimaginably awful and crazy and chaotic. Virginia could very well head in that direction. Limited early voting. Short hours to vote. 50% more turnout
@liam
Try msnbc.msn.com
I watched it live from the UK this pm.
Hey I just realized the Michelle Obama 'whitey' tape never materialized....I'm shocked
liam---I'd just stay in the Pub
Did you see this in the WaPo?
California GOP Files FEC Complaint Over Obama Visit to Grandmother
Perhaps the most ill-timed press release of the 2008 campaign arrived shortly after 1:30 p.m. today, sent by the Republican National Committee.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/11/03/california_gop_files_fec_compl.html
"I saw you sleeping this morning
on the pillow where I had slept.
The musk of our entanglement fragranced the room,
And all was right with the world."
Your poetry is good, but this one will get you invited back.
O: 353 (unless Lake County IN comes through big)
Is that a pic of Sean and Brett? Who's who?
Thx.
@liam
NPR is also doing live broadcasts tomorrow. I'm in NZ and NPR is my home away from home.
I'll also be refreshing 538 like a banshee though :)
p.s. Good job to everyone for ignoring the trolls.
Think Sean is one on right
I just got home from setting up a polling location here in Ohio. I'm already dead tired, combination of stress and just the anticipation of the long, long day at the polls tomorrow.
Still, I couldn't go on to do all of the other things I need to do tonight before catching a couple of hours sleep without checking this site.
Seeing Mc's win percentage drop below 2 almost made me cry . . .
It's been such a long road already but still so much work to do.
I'm working at the polls with some of the greatest people in the world, nearly all AA. I want for them, for me and for the rest of this country, a new beginning with a brilliant, thoughtful and considerate leader.
I hope everyone does everything they can tomorrow to bring this home.
@tyson
Yeah, they're still in the "final stages" of preparing its release... Bwahahahahaahahahaa
http://africanpress.wordpress.com/2008/11/04/api-counsel-in-the-final-stages-in-his-arrangement-to-have-michelle-obama-tapes-aired/
I don't know what's funnier, the API for the hoax, or the wingnuts for foaming at the mouth with possibility
Andy JS said...
Some people in a New Hampshire hamlet get to vote in the middle of the night, I've heard, and the results are declared almost immediately. Anyone know what time that takes place?
Dixville Notch and Hart's Location vote at midnight. Their polls close at 12:01 a.m.
News---let's do some history
WWW.MarstonChronicles.info
McCain-Palin 309 Obama-Biden 229
Could someone here splain this puma bs mumbo jumbo for me - apologies if this krap has been debunked already. Very short answers welcome.
thx
worry wart troll
I can't believe that complaint from the California GOP about Obama visiting his Grandmother. They really are gonna get a bad result on the west coast tomorrow, methinks.
emvision-don't mean nothing
Again the 2004 NH midnight votes:
Dixville Notch
Bush 19
Kerry 7
Hart's Location
Bush 16
Kerry 14
Nader 1
And Kerry won NH
I just saw a Jeremiah Wright ad during the SNL broadcast.
news you made me cry. good luck tomorrow and don't forget to have pie!
Mr. Quinn,
God bless you, sir. Nate has done his job, and now is the time for the poets! This is still the best call to arms out there.
Vote for Change!
Interesting past results from Dixville Notch, NH:
1960:
Nixon - 9
Kennedy - 0
1964:
Goldwater - 8
Johnson - 1
1968:
Humphrey - 8
Nixon - 4
1992:
Bush - 15
Perot - 8
Marrou - 5
Clinton - 2
1996:
Dole - 18
Clinton - 8
Perot - 1
Browne - 1
The village wasn't exactly a great indicator of the national result in the years above.
I can't believe that complaint from the California GOP about Obama visiting his Grandmother. They really are gonna get a bad result on the west coast tomorrow, methinks.
They may have just completely sank Prop. 8.
cearkela - Another way to say, "All this has happened before. All this will happen again."
lat and nam vet,
Thanks, I wish I could be monitoring the results here but I'll be busy making them by running the OH ballots to the Bd of Elections. I will, of course, come back and read them all!!
It's funny because the Reps at my polling location are 3 white guys--not hard for me to tell if there's political balance at the table (yep, there's a white guy there). One of them drives me crazy, the quiet racist who wouldn't in a minute think he was a racist. Tonight, he called me aside and asked if I'd figured out what I would do tomorrow "if there was trouble". I said "What kind of trouble?" thinking scanners stopping, poll workers not showing up? He says "You know . . . like if the voters start getting angry if the lines are long."
Yes, he's worried that the black folks are going to get all violent and riot . . . First I wanted to smack him, then I just felt sorry for him. The polling location is in a working class AA neighborhood. I'd bet that the residents work harder and have stronger community ties than he does (based on getting to know the poll workers and voters from before) yet he's certain they're going to cause trouble . . . so sad.
He is exactly the kind of person that an Obama administration needs to reach through its positive message and collaborative work.
Hope--it's what we finally may have again
Nate rocks!!!!
The area of Obama, Japan is beautiful. I never made it there, but a few miles away. We passed the sign each day. They will be drinking some great sake tomorrow!!!! I can imagine the karaoke party now.
One more day, guys!!!
I am so glad to be here with you all. I cried a bit when I saw Obama's pic after his grandma's death.
Toot is watching!
Rachel Maddow is really getting to be annoying with all of her concern. She's acting all worried about the GOP GOTV effort right now, suggesting that they will be silently effective because they have perfected it. If she had someone on her staff actually look at this website she might actually see some evidence about the differences in the ground games. It's not a guarantee of anything, of course, but the preponderance of evidence strongly suggests a big advantage for Obama.
emvision- Marston's a hack- he's basing his whole "PUMA = Mcain landslide" on RCP numbers.
wv: fustio: McCain's a fustio codger. He'll enjoy his nap Wednesday.
and wv: tocily- Rethuglicans complaints about trips to grandma's house are tocily.
@newsinOH
I'm sure you know that we in Britain are hoping that you'll be able to change your handle to goodnewsinOH in 24 hours time.
Keep the faith. By this time tomorrow, you'll know it was all worth it.
Joe from Nam,
here's your explanation for emvision : The eye illness that keeps repugs still seeing a Mccain victory.
Nate, Sean and whoever else runs this site, could you, after the election is over, and you guys are a bit free, get rid of the miles and miles of whitespace at the bottom of every post. I use end to get to the bottom, and click 'Post a Comment'. Now I have to hit End and Page Up like a million times.
gyzatte : What liberal LGBT activists drink at starbucks.
I will be out of touch all day working the polls. Hubby is a poll watcher at the same precinct. I am going to be dying for results when I get out. You guys on the east coast work it so that by the time polls close in NM (9PM ET) we have some good news, k?
badgerhair,
Brilliant suggestion. When I come home from dropping off the ballots, I will immediately log on, hopefully with my new name!
Our traditionally Republican family can't wait to have Obama win...vote, vote, vote! We are SO SICK of Palin and her dangerous lack of Political knowledge...we are gald her Political career is done for. FOX will probably offer her some lame show or an appearance or two...but after that she'll be all washed up.
-Republican family for Obama
News how about a prediction for tomorrow on OH--what's the spread
@emvision
Don't fret. This guy is projecting that win based on having tens of thousands of PUMAS rush the polls in each. Some states he's projecting hundreds of thousands.
I don't doubt there's PUMAs out there, but I don't believe that they're organized in the tens of thousands, let alone hundreds, let alone being organized in every single state.
We did have a bit of concern, however. I'm not sure what they're going to do about this . . .
It appears that enough people have been paranoid enough about their voting intent being clear enough that they have not only colored in the bubble by Obama's name, but they've also written his name in the space for write in candidates . . .
The scanners reject the ballots as double voting . . .
We can catch it at the polls but they couldn't with the mail-in and in person votes. I'm not sure when they discovered this was happening but they've put out signs now to warn people not to do this . . .
I'm hoping the margin is enough that it won't lead to litigation. Then again, if it comes down to "was the intent of the voter clear", which should trump pure procedure, we're okay (but who wants to go down THAT road???)
Are there O'Bama's in Ireland?
VW: Subabby.
Rachel Maddow is really getting to be annoying with all of her concern. She's acting all worried about the GOP GOTV effort right now, suggesting that they will be silently effective because they have perfected it. If she had someone on her staff actually look at this website she might actually see some evidence about the differences in the ground games. It's not a guarantee of anything, of course, but the preponderance of evidence strongly suggests a big advantage for Obama.
Agreed. I love Rachel Maddow and she's very, very smart, but I suspect Rachel is unconsciously interpreting all evidence to fit her belief that McCain will win, which she has been predicting all year.
She just brought up the question if Obama was wise to be playing offense in the red states, with the concern it just might mean Obama will lose closely in all of them well. Well, Kerry and Gore lost, so by definition, Obama would have to be playing offense in red states to have any chance at winning. And expanding the map to all states that he's competitive in is a bad decision? He should simply give up states that he has chances in, even good chances? It's not like Obama is short on money, so his spending in Indiana and Missouri is costing him in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. McCain has 1 or 2 semi-realistic paths to victory and Obama has many. Which position is better?
When talking about McCain chances and the polls, she'll say something like "Yeah, Obama's looking good, but look closer: McCain just needs all the tossups and then pick up Pennsylvania, or Colorado or Virginia." She's ignoring or downplaying the odds of this happening. Of course it could happen, but the chances are very, very small.
She’s a fan of 538.com, so she knows the sophisticated odds of this site, but even simple math shows this: If you're generous and assume that every tossup state and Pennsylvania are 50/50 odds, you'd have the following odds:
Pennsylvania goes to McCain: 50%
+ Ohio: 25%
+ Florida: 12.5%
+ North Carolina: 6.25%
+ Indiana: 3.125%
+ Missouri: 1.5625%
+ Nevada: 0.78125%
I don't think Maddow is stupid or is doing dirty tactics, I just think she genuinely can't believe Obama is going to win.
@newsinoh
I honestly think those kinds of scenarios are unlikely. Just like the PUMAs and the Bradley effect, I think record turn out will trump all of it.
Andy JS said...
[....] The village wasn't exactly a great indicator of the national result in the years above.
New Hampshire wasn't much of a swing state in those years, either.
ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH!!!!
nam vet,
I'm going to be optimistic and say OH for O by 4.
Columbus, Cleveland, Akron and Canton will be larger margins than Kerry had. Cincy and Dayton will have smaller margins for Mc than Bush had.
The blue margins will dominate. Just don't freak when the results come out because early voting results will be released at 8 and they'll probably be dark, dark blue. They'll lighten up over the course of the evening but a record AA and Dem turnout is going to do it.
Cry God for Harry, England and Saint George!
Actually tomorrow is the first time EVER that I will be sad not to be an American citizen. You are very, very lucky people.
Anyone watch the special 2-hour Hardball Sunday night? What is up with Chris Matthews? If I didn't know better, I could swear he was channeling Sean Hannity. There was a segment (I think they were discussing McCain's appearance on SNL) where a GOP talker and a Dem talker were on, but he wouldn't let the Dem talker say anything critical of McCain or his campaign.
My prediction - O367 M171
It's interesting that so many of our predictions are so similar, all assuming that the model is conservative.
Like that number---and thanks for working one of the most critical states in this years election.
thanks news we are hoping for good news!
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