11.05.2008

Chicago, The Day After

I'll be honest, it's a little hard to write today. I suspect a lot of you may be feeling the same complex set of emotions at the end of a political season so seismic that most of us will remember it as long as we live. We will tell our children and grandchildren what we saw and felt.

There are a million post-mortems in the data to discuss, and we will love bringing that to you. But it's a day of happy and exhausted stupor, and of personal post-mortems. Brett and I didn't leave Grant Park until past 2 am, and didn't wind up having so much as a single beer (to be remedied tonight in Chicago with one Mr. Nate Silver). Instead we passed out, woke up dazed, and stumbled to a coffee shop. 14,211 miles is a lot of driving, and our bodies crave regular beds.

We suspect we're not alone. Right now, organizers, full-time volunteers, campaign staff, and everyone else who gave single-minded effort toward November 4 are waking up and saying to themselves and each other, "what do I do with myself?" Their cars are messes, their rooms disaster zones, and they've been cut off from friends and family for God knows how long.

This was by far the longest and biggest election season in US history, and there is so much left to process. The elation that Democrats feel is mixed with the hangover of carrying so much emotional electricity in the body for so long. Its discharge is necessarily going to leave an exhaustion behind.

We feel it too. There will be moments in the coming days, randomly standing in line at the grocery store, driving down the street in contemplation, the sight of a door you knocked, catching a certain song, a glimpse of Chuck Todd, hearing someone tell a story... where these emotions will just come bursting through, the enormity of it all. Just think of how much effort went into this. How much sacrifice. How many things had to go right. How many people had to want it so badly, and how the masterpiece of a campaign structure that David Plouffe and cohorts engineered allowed all that effort to be channeled into the right places to maximize efficiency.

More than anything else, this experience was shared. I think I can safely speak for Nate and Brett when I say we loved sharing this year with you, our readers. We're determined to continue to provide innovative political analysis in the coming weeks, months, and years. This remains a labor of love. Thanks from us to you.

273 comments

Sarah said...

And thank you guys, for one hell of a spectacular ride.

J D Gerlach said...

First time commenter: this site was a great friend down the stretch. Thanks for everything.

Wappy said...

You guys are geniuses:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3296/3005625548_5b93f14cec.jpg?v=0

[ tyler curtain ] said...

Your posts were some of the highest highlights of the site. Thank you, Sean. Am looking forward to future work!

Jillian said...

Yes we can.
Yes we did.
Yes we are.

Thanks for the amazing ride; we'll be watching to see what comes next!

Jason said...

Of course, many of us *always* respond that way to the sight of Chuck Todd

Joe Benevides said...

Thanks guys! You've all been great! Here's to HOPE!

Luke said...

And a heartfelt thank you from us to you! Your work is amazing, enlightening, entertaining, and most importantly, accurate.

When I tell my kids and grandkids about this election, your stories from on the road will be a part of the story.

bookelly said...

I am amazed by how accurate the model was. Very good work gentlemen. I am a fan.

jpindenver said...

I feel the fiverthirtyeight withdraws coming on....

thanks Nate & Sean....

Lungkisser said...

Also a first commenter, and probably my only comment, but thank you 538. You were an invaluable resource, and proof that when a (usually Republican) friend would say "Why follow the polls?" its simply because "they're usually right" (except, I'm quite happy to say, your being mistaken about Indiana.)

Again, thank you for being my biggest resource, I hope you're here and I remember and find you in 4 years.

Nathan said...

Simply the best site and source for U.S. election analysis in the world. Well done guys, and thanks so much for your part in an unforgettable election experience!

Fwiffo said...

I don't feel the elation I felt last night. For some reason, I have the dread and nausea that belong to some version of me in an alternate universe where everything went wrong.

Or it could just be a wicked hangover.

Martin said...

you guys are an american treasure. please keep the analysis coming!

Lindsay said...

You guys deserve heaps of credit for putting so much work into this site. I've greatly enjoyed it over the past weeks, and look forward to what you'll have for us in the future.

Matthew H said...

Well done, very well done indeed!

All I ask is that, when you compare the national polls to the actual results, you do NOT use just the Monday results! IBD in particular went +3 +3 +3 +2 +3, oh wait, is this the final date? +6! What a load of crap.

On the other hand, you guys showed perfect consistency, and as a result you were a joy to read.

Lawrence said...

Props to 538 for their mad polling skillz.

Miriam said...

Oh, that's beautiful. This site has had some of the best left brain/right brain coverage of the election.

Just one question for the baseball fans out there-- will George W Bush have a negative VORP (Value Over Replacement President)?

FOSCO said...

You helped to keep me sane over the last two weeks.

I wish the model had been a bit better for Prop 8 in CA. :(

I hope by the next election cycle, you can figure out how to predict those pesky ballot measures.

KMartDad said...

Is this stupor related to a lack of sleep, a sense of unbelief, or the realization that I'm lucky to have held on to this job while spending so much time on sites like 538 since August?

Thanks Sean, Nate, Brett & everyone else. It's been a great experience to share with each of you.

Keep hope alive.

SHERWICK said...

With Texas in play in 2012, the GOP will literally have no 'big' EC states left. They'll be eternally left with under 100 EC votes each and every election!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

WVBill said...

Sean: you miss the point if you think we are done. All that has been done is that the opportunity for change has been created. Our new president will need each of us who worked so hard for him so far, to now do the real work: bringing about change.

dkan71 said...

Thank you guys. I can't imagine having retained as much sanity as I did down the stretch without you guys.

I called my Mom after Ohio was called and let her know that we did it and she said she still wasn't sure she could celebrate yet. Thanks to you guys I knew.

So I could take the time to let it start to sink in that we could finally start getting our country back and restoring what had been broken, tarnished or banished by cynicism over the last 8 years.

Thanks for providing me with a ton of peace of mind. The women of the Edwards family thank you.

wv: lasio The kind of day most Obama supporters are having today.

Matt W said...

I just want to say thank you to you SEAN!
Your reporting on this election has been some of the most innovative journalism I have ever had the priveldge to read. You deserve heaps of credit. You brought us all with you on an amazing journey through the most incredible election of my lifetime, and I just want to say Thank You.

RobR TX said...

This was by far the best site to watch this year's campaign and election process through.

Simply amazing.

You deserve the media attention that you have received lately - meritocracy does exist sometimes, I guess.

Sej (aka the Grinchluver) said...

Thank you for all of your time and effort. You have been my anti-anxiety medication over the last stretch of this massive election. Really looking forward to watching you guys call it all over again (perfectly!!!) in a couple years (where there is hopefully no name/mention of Palin).

SHERWICK said...

Ohio was the moment last night. What time was it called?

UppityTexan said...

Those are the words to what I am feeling right now. I have been an utter mess today and tear up like a pansy at the thought that we did this... Now all I did was phone bank, but I'd obsess at nights right here at 538. Not quite sure what to do with myself now...

Thank you Sean, Brett, and Nate for everything this year.

Yvette Joy said...

Thanks, guys. You did a fantastic job. By far the best election coverage site on the Internet.

Any bets on when Justice Stevens announces his retirement?

mizack2 said...

LOL, Shephard on Fox News just gave Nate a hard time. He compared Nate's numbers to the real thing, and said "Nate cheats. He goes to the future!"

kilioopu said...

As well as watching the birth of a new administration, we got to see you guys give birth of a new kind of web-based journalism: high quality, high thought, high signal to noise ratio. In two years you're going to have lots of people following in your footsteps. Be sure to stay ahead of the pack....

thank you for it all!

Miranda said...

You folks were spot-on! Just look at the maps and electoral percentages - they are identical. I know where I'm going to look during the next election cycle.

Are you going to updated MO, NC and AK? I think other nets have called everything except NC - what's the hold-up?

Eric Merrill said...

Thank you for the work on this site. Your state reporting was much of what convinced me to drive back to Indiana and from boston and work full time towards the end of the campaign.

RobR TX said...

Well, next step guys...

figuring out how to be inclusive to those who did not support our guy, how to encourage their cooperation, and form a government that works.

Cheers!

Jackson said...

You guys are amazing. I'm sure that everyone in politics want to employ you, based on nothing more than your own talents. I'd love to see you guys working with Obama in 2012, but would hate to see your stats classified. This is the only blog that I read with any regularity, and I did so obsessively. Every post was intelligent, thoughtful and well written. So much for journalism school. Also, On The Road+Pictures=Coffee Table Book.

timburns said...

You guys did a fantastic job of doing the statistical analysis. Could someone have Nate run numbers for me on how long it takes the press to turn on Obama. Took them all of 15 minutes with Bill, yet it was 5 years with Georgie. I'm hoping, given the stakes, that we can save "Travel-gate" and "gays in the military" until some time in February.

Still, this was my only polling site all year and my faith was rewarded by some pretty dead on predictions.

suzenew said...

Not sure what to do with myself today without obsessive 538 checking.

Thank you Nate, Sean and Brett for keeping me informed and sane and inspired during this election season.

Looking forward to see what comes next for you guys and for the whole country!

capt said...

I you guys didn't love your work we would love reading and learning from it.

You guys are top drawer.

Thanks for all you do

RQuinn said...

Looks like its time for some well deserved R & R, Sean. St. Louis is pretty close and always have an extra bed for my brother. I'm very proud of all your hard work through this tough election year.

See ya soon!

k said...

This site, I have said time and time again, is excellent, and has been my crack. I am quite anxious to see post-election analysis, and how the model performed to the actual results. In terms of the senate races, and the state races for the electoral votes. I noticed that two states which I thought would be a bit straightforward win(in my irrational optimism), Virginia and North Carolina were much closer than what the model predicted(and a lot of the polls predicted). I am wondering what happened.

Also, I am curious to see how the national pollsters will be evaluated now(and not just based on the final result). Anyways the personal road stories really inspirational, and I see the appeal now(from reading these stories) of working on political campaigns.

ellen said...

Nate and Sean,
Thanks for the moments of joy, tears, calm, reassurance, and humor.

I'm not entirely how sure how I will move on from checking this site 20 times a day to maybe just 2 or 3 times. Maybe you could start an online support group?

Also, thanks to the other posters on this site, you've been some of the brightest, funniest, and most interesting people I've read online....

Michele said...

So many people have said it so much better than I can, but -- thank you. I can't imagine how I could have stayed sane without this site, both for analysis and for the on-the-ground reports (and pictures!).

Thank you -- thank you so much.

Blue_in_CO said...

We did it!! (part of me still can't believe it) A true group effort. Way to go everyone.

Rousing Rabble said...

Where will you be tonite? I would LOVE to buy all three of you any number of rounds of high quality beverage. I kept your website on constantly for three months - it's the least I can do!

jf said...

What do you do with yourself?

There are a million issues to work on. Global warming, energy independence, health care, education... pick one, join an organization, start working.

The republicans will begin attacking Obama's decisions as president elect TODAY. The "honeymoon" will be declared "over" by the media next week. Remember the "vast right wing conspiracy" of the Clinton years?

Pelosi is just as much of a cowardly, ineffective sell-out as she ever was. She won't do a thing she isn't made to do. By you.

Yes you can.
Yes you did.
Yes, you still have to.

anonymoustravis said...

I've been reading since your site was first mentioned on Kos, and I wanted to say thank you for all you've done.

Enjoy your rest and celebrations, and (in a few days) keep up the good work.

kellysirkus said...

Thank You so much!!!!!!
You guys are Pure Awesome!
look forward to your next adventure

God Bless America
God Bless President-Elect Obama

thene said...

I agree with WVBill - I'm betting this is just the end of the beginning for the ObamaArmy.

Thanks so much for your writing, Sean. If you and Brett do come to GA for the December special, please stop by in Cherokee County!

cincyr said...

Well said. My eyes have been welling up all day. It was hard to go to work today.

I feel so priveleged to be experiencing this moment in history and am so excited to begin the hard work to help President Obama turn this country around.

Thank you Nate, Sean and Brett for all your hard work.

God bless America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PJ McIlvaine said...

Nate, I have a daughter in Boston who would be perfect for you...

JonathanCR said...

I tried to post before but had problems. I shall try again, and apologise if it appears more than once!

As a keenly interested British observer I'd like to add my voice in congratulating Nate Silver on an amazing site, and the American people in making the right decision!

I was in Oxford yesterday. The election date coincided with the date of my PhD thesis defence. Everywhere I went, I heard people talking about the election. And everyone, bar none, was desperately hoping that Obama would prove the polls right. In this country, you could discuss this election with anyone, friend or stranger, and be pretty much assured that that person wanted Obama to win. I walked through one of the grandest colleges in Oxford, next to two bowler-hatted porters in their 60s. They were talking about how good they thought Obama's chances were. Both of them wanted him to win. I told them that he was going to win, because of what I'd read on this site!

I'm pleased that I heard about Obama before most foreigners did, when I visited a good friend of mine in Chicago during the 2004 election. He had a home-made poster of Obama in his window (even though it was invisible from the street). I asked who that was: he told me that he was a popular local politician, a brilliant lawyer, and he was standing for the US senate. And that he was a rising star in the Democratic party who might just become the first black president. I didn't think it possible that that could happen so soon, and for a man with a name like that to become US president. It's incredible that it's all come true just four years later.

Some of the vitriol I've seen here and on other American political sites from right-wing posters has portrayed foreign support for Obama as a strike against him. I've seen people claim that foreigners want America to be weak, and that they support the weaker candidate because they think that whatever is against America's interest is in their own. That sort of view is desperately mistaken. I think that most people, at least in the western world, want to like America. They want America to be strong and they want to look to America for their ideals - or at least many of them. The last eight years have been so upsetting to so many people not simply because Bush has been a bad president but because he has taken America in a direction which doesn't allow them to do that - and the American people have let him do that. Now, suddenly, we can get over that.

I was in tears when I watched Obama's victory speech. People make these comparisons to Martin Luther King, but I find Obama, if anything, a more inspiring speaker. People like Obama don't come along very often. America is lucky to have him now - make the most of him!

ssilroc9 said...

back atcha, guys.

thanks for putting in the time, energy and emotion to tell the real story of this long strange trip we've all been on.

looking fwd to (y)our next adventure.

onward...

Tom Watt said...

What is going on in the Begich Stevens race in Alaska? The latest polling data says that Stevens is winning. How is this possible?

Joshua said...

Well, thanks a lot guys. I've been spending the last night on the floor of my living room, sitting in front of the TV with CNN running, one notebook with 538 and another one with two other election live streams from German TV stations (seven (!) of them have been covering the election night for hours). Heck, I guess that was a somewhat unique moment.

Especially over here in Germany, where the media often likes to grab the first U.S. poll available and publish whatever numbers they can find, your site has been extremely helpful for keeping the overview. Thank you for your dedication and for keeping me awake in many boring lectures and one exciting night.

Just had to think of you when I saw this great comic strip.

See you in four years - at the latest. :-)

Joshua

Bluegirl said...

It is not often that you can sit back on your couch and watch/participate History in the making.

As one who grew up in a small California farming community in the 60s, I remember beloved family members using the "N word" in everyday conversations. I remember watching the Civil Rights movment happen on the TV. I remember when the first Black family (in our Socioeconomic group) moved into our town, they wanted to join our Church. I remember the heated discussion in the meeting hall about how DARE THEY...THEY had their OWN Church. I remember my mother standing up...in 1969...and telling the entire congrgation that if THEY were not good enough to worship in our Church then WE would not either. I remember her grabbing my sister and my hands and marching us all out with her back ridged with anger.

AND NOW...I will NEVER forget when my Country finally accepted that ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL!!

I cried last night...

Joe The Fake Virginian said...

Thanks Nate, Sean and Brett.

I had a verklempt moment on Tuesday morning after dropping my wife off at work. I had my 2008 (election) playlist blasting in the car.

The most-played song came on, The Who's "We Don't Get Fooled Again". There was a young family waving a large, homemade OBAMA sign at a busy intersection.

I can tell you the car got very dusty for a moment.

wv - embeard, Bill Richardson's post-election state

izcanbejudenow said...

Sean, you and Brett have taken us all on a beautiful journey across our beautiful country. When will the compilation be available for purchase? Those pix deserve glossy. Or maybe set up as slide show with the accompanying texts for our digital picture frames on our living room walls?

Nate, you have single handedly made numbers COOL this year. I recommend a "Secretary of Statistics" position for you, so we get the figures right on all the many problems our country faces, and so the interest groups can't play games with them.

Thank ALL of you for keeping ALL of us sane.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

You guys owe me a report. Because of all the stats to pour over, I've been left with piles of work left over that I've been putting off.

Please, next election, just give us one pie chart and maybe one or two lines of commentary.

bioniclatino said...

My GF called me today, weepy and a little emotional. She explained that she "missed the tension". She missed the urgency of the election process. She has been browsing some of the sites that used to be glued to, and she said it felt like the room after a party right before thry stack the chairs and sweep away the confetti.

I gotta say, I know the feeling.

I'll miss you all.

WVBill said...

When I spent the weekend calling voters in Pennsylvania, my friends asked why, since it looked like other states would be closer. I tried to explain that McCain's only chance would be if the polls were systemically wrong, and he really was 3-5% higher than the polls were showing. I tried to explain that if that were the case, Obama needed to defend Pennsylvania more than anything else.

They were amazed at my wisdom. (I never let on that had they read 538 they, too, would have known.)

Listen to my Hype said...

Thanks for this site, I would have gone insane without it and all of you.

Last night, I was so happy, and ofcourse cried, it was awesome to hear what you needed to hear from someone you believe will make things easier for us to make things better for ourselves and our children our too short time on this earth.

I also felt so drained, like I told someone I loved with all my heart that I could not be around them ever again. Hard to explain. Here is to working together to get us going again!

hurtz said...

Nate, you are my hero! You guys helped me stay cool repeatedly when the dueling polls were really crazy, and you helped me talk my mom in FL in off the ledge more than once. Thank you! Buy you a beer tonight in Chicago!?

Lillian said...

Thanks for the most intelligent and interesting commentary and numbers in the business. For those of us stranded outside of the US, say in the Baltic for instance, this is more important than you may appreciate. Well done, well done!
Many thanks, wish very much I could buy you all a few rounds.
Best,
Lillian

Jeff said...

this is my second attempt, hoefully only one pubishs:

Yesterday, the country went silent.
After several long months of over-the-top politicking, accusations, claims, and being bombarded with ads on TV, radio, flyers, billboards, America went silent.

For 12 to 13 long hours, we as a nation spoke silently.

With the entire world looking upon us to make the choice, and somewhat seemingly already knowing the obvious choice, they waited for us to speak. Someone once told me, an Englishman, that he never doubted Americans to make things right. Whether that stems from our involvement in WW2 or WW1 or even the Cold War, I don’t know. But the World waited.

Who would we choose? Were we ready to look for to a leader who wasn’t the typical color-of-skin? Would the Bradley Affect reign? Would voting irregularities cause riots? Would there be fraud? Would there be intimidation? Would we decide that the white guy was just a better candidate? Would America make it right? Would America finally grow up? Was this the beginning of Hope, in an age of despair?

It’s impossible to see the future. The brightest can develop ways to project to a reasonable degree of certainty, but they can never really know the outcome before its fruition. Projections were good. They gave Hope. But, America, from sea to shining sea, speaks silently. No one knew what she would say.

And when America finally answered, it was clear. Englishmen, it would seem, have a very keen understanding of America.

sidetracked1 said...

Just wanted to join all those saying 'thanks' for your tremendously detailed work, your thoughtful analysis, and your heartfelt opinions and insights.

I sent a donation last night, and hope many others who used this site to maintain hope, clarity and sanity over the last few weeks will do the same.

There is simply no other site that has this combination of humanity and number-crunching, user-friendly information.

Thanks too, to the many who left informative, engaging, and often very funny comments.

Ribalding said...

So now I get my life back?

hmm......this should be interesting.

Alex S. said...

I am slowly feeling the withdrawal...
Thank you for your coverage, Brett and Sean - wonderful articles and photos. I was a little disappointed that the ground game didn't have a bigger impact on the race. A Montana win or an upset in Georgia would have been great. I also thought that the margins in Virginia and North Carolina "should" have been bigger... but I am only speaking as a nerd here, the result is still wonderful. So maybe the ground game was already factored into the polls. And it seems the pollsters coped well with the cell-phone issue. But Indiana was a pure win by organization. Democrats decided to compete in there for the first time for ...28 years? And they won it.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

one last thing.

It's time to write the next great chapter in American history folks.

...I can't wait.

JAY R said...

Still in that wierd twilight zone of did-it-really-happen? OMG it did! Brilliant work guys - first site I logged onto every morning, last one at checked before I went to bed. Thanks for everything, the withdrawal will be tough but would have been even tougher had you got it wrong. Stunning stuff.

Matt said...

Thanks Sean, Nate and Brett. You guys did a fantastic job of both covering and projecting the election. The field reports and polling updates became highlights of my day, and now I'm going to have to find something else to focus on. Hats off to the three of you!

ivb said...

Thank you so much for all your work. So many times the only thing that kept me sane was this site!

Don said...

I hope someone reads this.

Last night we took the kids (ages 4,5,6 and 7) to Grant park to see history being made. One thing I have always noticed about my African American Friends or commentators are the crazy ideas that they have about how white people think about them (Eddie Murphy's brilliant Mr White Skit comes to mind). Being there outside the area and having so many african americans of so many different ages come up and hug is was truly amazing. It was as if there was this collective Sally Filed moment where there was this collective 'You like us' YOU REALLY LIKE US!' realization about white people. I haven't heard any thing reported on this but I have a feeling is that it is precisely this realization that will do more to transform race relations than anything else.

striker said...

NATE PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU PATENT YOUR METHODS!

After your incredible performance as an analyst in 2008, you are potentially set for life. Just make sure you get PAID when pollsters around the world copy-cat you to improve their ability to predict elections.

Ian Hamilton said...

Long-time reader here and first time commenter.

Fivethirtyeight.com helped me retain my sanity over the last few months. Using your information and projections I was able to identify the misinformation spewing from my television and help keep my family well-informed.

Will follow you wherever you end up writing/reporting.

Voice of the Midwest said...

What did Voice of the Midwest say about Indiana?

A long night? Yes.

Under 100,000 either way? Yes.

Look at the eastern time zone counties, if Obama is overperforming then Lake County will pull him through? Yes.

Some networks still refuse to call it, but Indiana laws for recounts are very difficult to put on. In the words of White Sox analyst Ken "Hawk" Harrelson...

This thing is "OVA!"

TBender said...

Thanks Sean. "On the Road" did more for me than the polling data -- sorry, Nate -- to give me a better feeling about the election. Seeing and hearing about the ground game really showed that this was different from 00 and 04.

jf -- The attack has already started, based on what I heard from Limbaugh today as I checked to see if he was still breathing. He was attacking Obama's speech last night full steam ahead. He'd better pace himself or he's likely not to last the next four years.

livemild said...

like so many others here i feel the need to thank you and Brett and Nate again-great time here

i feel sad today. the election ended better than i dreamed (with a few senate seats as excetions) but it ended. oh well guess i have to start up my real life again-now that's REALLY depressing.

markymark said...

Nate, Sean and Brett,

Just wanted to say a quick thank you for bringing your readers the real scoop on this years election. Its been a great ride, with all the ups and downs and confusion was added to by your tireless work. I know I am not alone in being more informed, more ready and more passionate about this election thanks to the work that all of you have done.

Enjoy every one of those beers you get through tonight! You guys earned every one of them.

John said...

Thank you guys for everything you have done. You gave us in-site that we could use. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I love this country.

franglais said...

To Paraphrase another great American:

We are America, and yes you can too.

Pork Rinds said...

You, Nate, and Brett were an enormous comfort through this entire rollercoaster ride. Being a data guy myself, nothing is quite as comforting as solid, thoughtful analysis. And your on-the-road reporting was superb. I am so thankful for the day I innocently clicked a link to your site.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart and long live 538.com!

SHERWICK said...

Fox called Ohio at 6:23 pm. That was the exact moment that Obama and his supporters knew.

Raphael said...

Rest up guys, you've earned it. Then, please explain the AK, OR, and GA senate races. Especially AK. How'd that happen?

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Nate,

Could you maybe do a secondary projection and use this years results to recalculate the weight of each pollster and see how far off you would have been?

It would be kind of interesting. If not, I understand. It's been a while.

Mrs B said...

congratulations America!

Good night everybody, good job.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

You got the idea that Fox wanted the night over early by the way they were calling states so quickly.

Peter said...

First comment: Thank you Nate, Sean, and Brett for such a wonderfully conceived website. It has been a pleasure to follow over the past few months. May the next election bring you millions of more readers.

stateofdisunion1 said...

As a statistics junkie, fivethirtyeight has been like crack for me for the last 2 months.

Nate and Sean, you guys did an amazing job projecting the outcome. Your analysis was spot on, your methodology bulletproof. But above all that, your insights made this site a hell of a fun read as well. I'm sincerely hoping that this project wasn't a one-off for you guys, and that we'll be in for a similar treat in 2010 and 2012. Keep up the great work!

TrumanHugh said...

In my mailbox this afternoon was an $8 Barack-o-bill.

On the face it says:

"We heart BO42008"

"Change we can believe in"

"This note has no monetary value but is GOLD in the hearts and minds of those who seek meaningful change for all Americans"

"Our time has come"

It's signed by Howard Dean, DNC and also includes Obama's picture and seal, as well as the SOL turch

On the back it says:

"Eight dollar Obama Note"

"Take back America"

It also includes Barack's seal as well as a Star of Daivd and a Crescent and Star symbol

****

I saw three men in suits wakling through my neighborhood (I live downtown, so it's a mix of businesses and homes) earlier this morning, but wasn't home when this arrived. I still had my Obama yard and rally signs in my window, but, of course, the DNC and Obama campaign both know a Obama supporter lives here.

Just curious if this is a nationwide post-election marketing campaign of thanks or...

David said...

This is where I came for the last month for election coverage. The writing is so direct yet personal and contained exactly what I wanted to know...no misleading teasers, just great, accurate and HOPEFUL stuff. Thanks so much.

Daniel said...

Thanks to you guys this ride was even more spectacular. Amazing work all the way - thanks again!

./aditi said...

I have to agree with many of the comments above. You guys have been my crack for the last few months as well - you kept me sane and I knew I could always count on an intelligent discussion here. Thank you so much!!!!!!

Andy said...

Thank you all. I live in the SF Bay Area where the ground game was pretty unimportant, and I constantly stressed about what turnout was going to look like in states like Indiana.

You painted and incredible and inspiring picture of people in middle America passionately working to do the right thing.

Nate's projections were always comforting (and correct), Brett's photos were fantastic, and your insight gave me hope for this election, beyond anything else I was reading/watching.

Hope you all can find a great use for this site until the next election. Was originally thinking that would be four years off, but I guess that's really more like two.

Great work, all the way around. And thank you.

JonathanCR said...

Just one other comment - more of a question. In Britain, when an election is held, no-one knows the results of any constituency until they are officially announced. This is done formally by the person in charge of the counting, with all the candidates standing behind him, and everyone has a good laugh watching their expressions as the numbers are read out.

In the US, by contrast, not only does this not seem to happen but the results of each state are "called" not by official but by television networks. This baffles me. How on earth does it work? Why do people place such stock by what is presumably a sort of best guess by network analysts instead of an official announcement? And isn't it slightly worrying that TV producers have such a role? It's not like they don't have a fair old bit of influence over people's opinions to start with as it is!

phyllis said...

I am glad the election is over, even happier that Obama prevailed.

Without this site, the ups and downs of the election would have been unbearable. Thanks Nate - It was fun seeing you on TV. Hope you won't become too big to have this site in the next election cycle :)

tks again and good luck!

Tyler said...

I'll add my congratulations and thanks to Nate, Sean and Brett for this amazing site. It's been a great ride for all of us, and your great analysis and on-the-ground perspective is enhanced even more by the accuracy of your final prediction:

Obama popular vote prediction: 52.3 percent
Obama popular vote actual tally: 52.4 percent
McCain popular vote prediction: 46.2 percent
McCain popular vote actual tally: 46.3 percent
Total states predicted incorrectly: Indiana

Wow.

wv: ducsit - To watch over a lame duck president in his waning days!

Dead Cat Bounce said...

While I feel wonderful about this, the work is only just beginning. There are, unfortunately, many, MANY people in the US who will never accept Obama as president and are already attacking his legitimacy. I've spent the morning cruising the comment sections on Fox, the PUMA sites, Red State, ad nauseum, and to listen to some of these nuts, the US has just suffered a Muslim-communist takeover. In their view, Obama couldn't have won (because everyone thinks the same way they do, thus who would have voted for him?), so obviously the whole election was stolen by ACORN. Obama is a Muslim, is not a US citizen, and will turn the US into Zimbabwe.

There are many good Republicans out there, and I hope Obama can work with them, but the wingnuts have NOT gone away, and they will fight this every step of the way, both through legitimate channels and illegitimate ones (don't forget--the last time we had a Democratic president, this country suffered the worst episode of home-grown terrorism in its history, and things are far more polarized than they were in 94).

Complacency is as dangerous today as it was last week, if not moreso.

Patrix said...

Thanks guys for all your work. Loved every post - On the Road, Road to 270, and of course, Today's Polls. You made polling stats cool again :)

Neal said...

Thank you Sean. Your "On the Road" series is, in my opinion, the required reading to understand this election. I would love to see it collected in book form, along with Brett's photos.

It really feels like we took ownership of our country, and of our futures, yesterday. It felt so good because it really felt like we did this ourselves -- it was a level of participation that went beyond merely checking the box for the lesser of two evils.

And if there is anything that should scare the forces of intolerance and injustice in this country right now, it is the fact that there are so many who are fully involved, fully engaged, fully awake, and we are not going back to sleep.

Mule Rider said...

My final grade on fivethirtyeight.com and Nate, Sean, and Brett and the work they did for the 2008 campaign/election cycle.

An A-

Explanation: High Marks for exceptional reporting and statistical analysis. Much hard work was put into this site and maintaining it through the entire season.

Mostly accurate predictions for the overall presidential - at the national and state levels - and congressional races. Just about on the money for the EV and popular vote distribution and the number of Senate seats. What more can you say?

Points were docked for overestimating Obama's margins or chances in some states and badly underestimating him in others (NV and NM anyone?), as well as a few hyperpartisan rants (Conegate, Palin, etc.) passed off on the rest of us to chew on that weren't really necessary.


word verification: relastsy - a hybrid form of relaxing and ecstasy, or the feeling most Obama supporters are feeling today, November 5th

John said...

And thank YOU all.

Further to the note on the accuracy of projections: you certainly weren't what I would have called non-partisan. You were straightforward about your preferences, your bias. And yet -- what HOUSE EFFECT? Jeebus. The integrity of your numbers is just mind-boggling.

Davy said...

Nate, et al,

The predictions of HAL 10000, aka the model, proved astonishingly accurate. I haven't compared your results with other pollsters but I bet you win. Thank all you guys for feeding our addictive fervour during this election. Will check in from time to time in the future.

SHERWICK said...

BBC North America editor Justin Webb: "The celebrations of an Obama win in Virginia seem to me to speak more of a changing America than of Obama managing to triumph in an unlikely place. Virginia is a changed state - it has grown by 50% in 10 years. Those newcomers are not your granny's Virginians. Virginia looks and feels different. And as Virginia goes, so goes the nation - this is the immutable fact which wise Republicans (Pawlenty et al) grasp. Unwise Republicans think abortion and gay bashing and gun toting can still win them the future…"

PeteKent said...

Did anyone catch Obama with Michael Signator?

Tim said...

You guys are getting hammered in Chicago tonight?? I wanna buy you a beer for your fantastic work!!

obamamama505 said...

w/v "blessi" says it all....

Voice of the Midwest said...

Tucker Carlson looked frustrated this morning on MSNBC. Why? Not because Obama won. It is because it is not the first Wednesday in November, 1992.

That year, Clinton won. Carlson and the right wing pundits were slobbering. They immediately called the election of Clinton illegitimate (under 50%) and, to be honest, Clinton's proclivities were the gift that kept on giving.

They knew Clinton's foilbles were going to be the sail that guided the GOP to better days.

Forward to today. Barack Obama is elected with a majority of votes. Not to mention that he does not give the right a treasure trove of skeletons in the closet or midnight abortions to distract the voters. They will have to offer an alternative legislative agenda to Obama and the Democratic majority.

The GOP is effectively a southern-centric party. What they gained 43 years ago with the Civil Rights Act in the South is all they have now. They've lost the Northeast; they are losing more of the Midwest; they are left with tenuous majorities in the Plains; and they are losing the Rockies.

They do not have a strawman in Clinton come January 20, 2009. The GOP is going to have to cooperate or compete on the issues. That will take a lot considering the sensible center no longer exists in this new construct of a regional party called the Republicans.

Rhea said...

Your site was a go-to source of information throughout the campaign season. Continued success to you!

aaron said...

So, where are you guys going for that beer? I'm buying! ;)

Thanks for all the great work.

Bill in KY said...

If I am not mistaken in one of the last entries before the counting began, you said the margin would be 6.1%. How much closer could you have gotten it? Great job and I look forward to checking in on you down the road.

Sahara Sam said...

Great post. I've never posted any comments here before, but over the last 6 months, I've been frequenting this 538 half a dozen times a day. It's been great riding with you guys and thanks so much for giving us a level of insight on this election that I personally have never had before. Thank you.

PeteKent said...

Nate and Sean, I cannot say this too many times or thank you guys enough. You made a home for all of us. Thank you.

Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.

The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.

No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.

It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.

Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.

My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.

I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .

While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.

Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.

Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.

With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.

He must maintain his popularity.

So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.

I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.

It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.

Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.

I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.

I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.

A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.

You wind up idealizing such politicians.

It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.

I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!

She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).

This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.

Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.

Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.

Thank you and good night to one and all!

SHERWICK said...

BBC North America editor Justin Webb: "Looking at the McCain crowd in Arizona, you realise that the Republican party is in trouble. To base a party on white and elderly and socially conservative people is to base a party on a dwindling electoral resource."

Nathan said...

This level of excitement will only leave you disappointed.

Barack Obama is not going to be the best president ever, or likely even in the top 10. He is very likely to follow the mold of Bill Clinton - a decent but not outstanding president.

I'm sorry you're so excited, but it really isn't that big of a deal - he's not all that liberal.

And honestly, I think the more important thing today is whether or not they'll get to 60. It doesn't look likely, but the races in Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, and Minnesota have yet to be called. If the democrats get the full 60 in the senate, that will make as much of a difference as Obama winning the presidency.

Kathryne said...

You guys have all been amazing, thank you so much for ALL of you hard work and dedication!

snitchee snitch snitch said...

Such strong work boyos! I can't count how many times in the last 3 months I've said or written "according to 538.com..." You've accomplished so much more than we can express.

mary said...

As a fellow Chicagoan, thanks for putting it into words.

I cried the first time this morning when I saw the news crews starting to pack up their trucks. It hit me then: yesterday was real.

I have since cried at least half a dozen times. With coworkers, by myself, in the 7-11... it comes in waves, unpredictably, but I have yet to do it in public when I didn't catch the eye of someone who seemed to understand.

And now it's happening again. I need to go get a tissue, but thanks. Just... thanks. I guess it would ruin your party to post what bar you'll be at, but I'd love to get you guys a beer, too.

ThisIsForTheCool said...

Chicagoan here.....Thanks for a high-quality site that allowed me to assure my friends as the night began that if Obama held Pennsylvania, then he'd win based on 538's analysis of Kerry states plus a number of combinations......

Thanks for the polling analysis, On the Road series, etc. I will miss reading the insightful and otherwise comments of others posting to this sight.

Yes We Did and Yes We Will.....

Davy said...

@yvette

"Any bets on when Justice Stevens announces his retirement?"

January 21, 2009

One$Earned said...

I was firmly in Obama's camp, however
fivethirtyeight made the ride
interesting, worthwhile and added
value to my election season
experience.

If I may, the grade I would give
fivethirtyeight is A.

My brother called me at 6:00am CST to
tell me how close fivethirtyeight
came to predicting the Electorial
College count.

Fivethirtyeight and Nate have
exceeded expectations and are now
the benchmark from which all
polling analysis will be judged.

I've never blogged before joining
this blogging experience here
at fivethirtyeight.com.

You guys hav set the bar so high
and but that's what we should do.

PeteKent said...

I just realized we are 40 years from the assassinations of RFK and MLK. No denying that Obama is a distillation of their spirits.

Bush Whacked said...

Sean, Nate and Brett:

A perfect combination of hard geek numbers, bleeding heart liberal commentary with elitist tendencies and poignant photos. It kept us gun-shy libs sane and I hope it's enough to make the heads of the right wing bloviators explode.

I second the idea that you guys should bundle the entire saga into a book. Based on how hooked most of use have been here and the mood of the country, I think you could have a major hit. Strikes me as just the kind of thing Oprah might like.

So long and thanks for all the polls.

Joe The Fake Virginian said...

@ sherwick

I think that Chris Matthews described Northern Virginia best (I think it was Chris) by saying LOTS AND LOTS of people that do not have accents or the right accents.

The growth in Virginia has come from more liberal states, where even "conservatives" have a minimum floor of expectations with regards to government providing services. There has also been a tremendous amount of immigration to Northern Virginia from OUTSIDE the United States. We all go to school, shop, eat and work with people from all around the country and around the world.

This is what the country is all about, as opposed to refighting battles from centuries past, we choose to LOOK FORWARD to what can be.

Yes, we can!

One$Earned said...

Now I have to go rake leaves for the
next two hours so I can take
advantage of as much daylight as
possible.

But I will be back this evening to
read, comment and stay in the moment.

The Musings of Strawman Munny said...

First time commenting, but wanted to join everyone is saying you guys were great. My first stop, once I found your site, during the primaries and general.

Absolutely magnificent.

Thanks for everything and I'm looking forward to what you have up your sleeve next.

PeteKent said...

The model was scary good - I am a believer!

eve said...

This site added so much to the experience of watching this election. Thank goodness there is so much to do postmortems over because I would hate to have to end my 538 addiction.

michiganmaine said...

Yes, thank you all so much for the site. This was certainly the best site for information on the election. The first place I would go. Great work.

I truly look forward to what you all do in the future and what you do with this site.

One$Earned said...

@petekent,

who will be your president come
January 21, 2009?

Patrick said...

Thanks guys. Thank you for helping me through this difficult period with mathematical models--- I'm glad to know my faith in models (and nerds) wasn't misplaced :-)

PeteKent said...

Amazing how we live on the razor's edge of five percent!

SHERWICK said...

Only the over 65s favored McCain this election. The 18-29s voted for Obama by 66% to 32%. This should tell you the direction the USA is going and where we'll be in 2012, 2016 and beyond.
The GOP party of hate is:
F I N I S H E D !

MrChumChum said...

I've never commented on this site before, but I just need to express my gratitude to you guys. You have been a source of sanity, thoughtfulness and brilliance. It has been a joy to watch the growth of this site and the legitimate attention that 538 has received. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all the wonderful hard work you did. I will always be grateful.

Dean said...

THANKS for all the work!!! You guys made me feel so much better on a daily basis.

Voice of the Midwest said...

"It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin." (PeteKent)

Sure, Pete.

The name Ronald Reagan does not hold much water any more and Sarah Palin cannot find her ass with a map and a flashlight in a room full of mirrors.

The bench is shorter and shorter the more doctrinaire this new, southern-centric, racist, sexist conservativism evolves. No one in the party can figure out why the numbers shrink as the party gets uglier.

Sarah Palin is dumber than a box of owl crap. If you want her to be the party standard, go right ahead. She is the gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats.

Phil said...

Great job, guys. I got hooked to this site a few months ago and have been lecturing people about how polls work (and don't work) ever since. I am so happy the polls produced reliable stats. I would have been crushed otherwise.

Loved the "On the Road" pieces as well.

PeteKent said...

"It's time to write the next great chapter in American history folks.

[President Palin?]

...I can't wait."

Me too!

These Obama years cannot be over soon enough!

But it will be like a vacation being out of power after 28 years of it. Quite a run Republican Government had!

grinder said...

The Associated Press says:

"It looks like 136.6 million Americans will have voted for president this election, based on 88 percent of the country's precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots, said Michael McDonald of George Mason University. Using his methods, that would give 2008 a 64.1 percent turnout rate."

Another paragraph in the AP story:

"Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University and dean of turnout experts, said his early numbers show 2008 to be about equal to or better than 1964, but not higher than 1960. He said it looks like total votes, once absentees are tallied (which could take a day or so), will be 'somewhere between 134 and 135 million.' "

As I write this comment, The New York Times currently shows only 119.8 million votes between Obama and McCain. In other words, 11%-12% of the vote is still uncounted?! Why in hell has ANYONE conceded or declared victory? What gives? There is no media coverage about the discepancy anywhere that I can see.

SHERWICK said...

Sarah Palin, freeloader. Also.
by Kagro X
Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:30:05 PM PST
Dansac has already introduced you to today's version of the story, but I feel compelled to revisit an earlier call on this in order to restate a now obvious theme: Sarah Palin is The Chiseler Supreme.

What a really, truly unpleasant experience has been our exposure to the two insta-celebrities created by the McCain campaign. These two grubbers, Joe the Plumber and Sarah Palin, became the perfect symbol for everything that was wrong with and ingenuine about modern Republicanism.

Joe griped endlessly about taxes even as it turned out he was ducking them, and groused that Obama's "socialism" would mean there was no incentive to work hard and succeed in earning more than $250,000 a year, even as he shopped around for an agent and a Nashville recording contract. (And excuse me -- what?! A recording contract? Based on what, Mr. Hard Work?) Meanwhile, there was Sarah griping about pork and wasteful spending even as she tried to rip off the Feds for the Bridge to Nowhere, rip off the state for her per diem, and rip off the campaign for her clothes (and her husband's, and her family's).

Yes, in the few short weeks we knew her, Sarah Palin turned out to have more hands in more pockets than we could keep track of. She and Joe were the perfect pair. Instantly famous but for no good reason, pushy, greedy, and all the while cheating behind the scenes, and cheating on the very issues about which each of them complained that regular Americans were getting a raw deal from the elite.

Good riddance. I get enough of that crap from Reality TV as it is.

It's like a whole election nearly went down the wrong pipe. Thank God the country coughed them back up.

dpldust said...

Just want to say Thank you.

Nate I and my 12 y.o. son both have Asperger's - you have been an inspiration to us both.

doc3osh said...

First time commenter as well (and does anyone read down this far?)
I'd like to add my deep thanks for giving us something to point to, to support the optimism we WANTED to have but weren't sure we should dare to.

You deserve a long vacation.

But afterwards, we do need to realize that Obama needed MASSIVE help to win, and will need it again in 2012. We were desperate, so hundreds of thousands of us helped. I hope when we are not so desperate we can still muster the fortitude. Because the neocons will be desperate, and will work twice as hard. My great hope is that we will step back from Rovian politics by then. Showing Fox News and Palin that that tactic did not work was tremendously satisfying.

andy dremeaux said...

Thank you!

Diane said...

I'm seconding or onehundreding or whatever the comments above about what an awesome job you did with this site, the road trips, the pictures, the data, and all. It was a must-read every day.

Also thanks to all the many volunteers who put their lives on hold to make this happen. My husband and I did this in our youth ("Come clean for Gene" McCarthy), and it's awesome to see young and old today coming together for a cause again.

SHERWICK said...

According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement.

One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

According to the Newsweek story, the aides kept McCain in the dark about this so as not to enrage him. Palin, the hardcore ladder-climber, made a request to the campaign to speak alongside McCain's concession speech last night (!?!). Understand this: Sarah Palin wanted to speak as part of John McCain's concession speech. Steve Schmidt (wisely) vetoed the request.

DarcyPennell said...

Full time volunteer from NC here. Sean, this post described so perfectly how I am feeling. Elated, relieved, exhausted, bewildered, mostly just stunned. Emotions coming out of nowhere. I get weepy every time I hear the phrase "President Elect Obama" on the radio.

I'm almost finished breaking down my staging area -- took a rest to read your site -- and wondering what the heck I'm going to do with myself next. Go back to my job I guess, if I still have one. Thanks for being there for us. I can't tell you how many late nights we'd all be sitting there entering data and someone would ask "Has FiveThirtyEight updated yet?" and then we'd all gather around to look at that day's numbers. The first time Nate put Obama at 95% stands out particularly in my mind. It was hard to get back to work that night.

narrator said...

It has been an amazing ride. Thank you guys. From my first exposure when an old colleague of Nate's dad said, "look at this" - I've been a multiple times a day reader. Gotten both my political and my stats fixes in one place. Congrats.

Ira
http://speedchange.blogspot.com/

Rightwingsnarkle said...

Thanks, Sean, Brett, and Nate.

Your stuff made me look very freaking smart at work these past months. Folks want to know how I was so plugged in.

I may tell them...

Voice of the Midwest said...

"I just realized we are 40 years from the assassinations of RFK and MLK. No denying that Obama is a distillation of their spirits." (PeteKent)

Pete, the culture war is over. Viet Nam is over. It is time to move forward.

40 years ago, they chanted "the whole world is watching" in Grant Park as Nixon launched a cultural war that has lasted to today.

Last night, the whole world was watching as we ended it.

The GOP will have to find a serious new agenda that does not involve culture war memes or Hooverian supply side economics. Neither work and neither evolve our society.

GOP, drawing board...drawing board, GOP.

Andy said...

No other website had the depth of analysis and accurate picture of what this election was all about. In the end, your projections were spot on and your reasoning vindicated. I've greatly enjoyed reading this blog for now almost a year. Thanks for all the hard work and don't worry, I'm not going anywhere.

Renee said...

thanks guys. Go find an island to rest on, and know that you truly, truly did original work and contributed to an amazing year!

akoolromeo said...

Nathan said...
This level of excitement will only leave you disappointed.

Barack Obama is not going to be the best president ever, or likely even in the top 10. He is very likely to follow the mold of Bill Clinton - a decent but not outstanding president.

I'm sorry you're so excited, but it really isn't that big of a deal - he's not all that liberal.

And honestly, I think the more important thing today is whether or not they'll get to 60. It doesn't look likely, but the races in Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, and Minnesota have yet to be called. If the democrats get the full 60 in the senate, that will make as much of a difference as Obama winning the presidency.

November 5, 2008 3:34 PM
****
I hope he's not that Liberal. Right now, Clinton looks like a pretty darn good President, except for his personal foibles. This country is center right, and if he goes too far left, he will make the mistake Clinton made in 93, and the Democrats will lose Congress in 2 years. If he goes too far left, and things turn sour really bad, the Democrats may not see the White House again in my lifetime.
We can't afford to enact his expenditures he's proposing. We must get a handle on the debt. Clinton realized that the moment he took office, which was why he had to forgo his middle class tax cut. The Republicans like Reagan and Bush got to play good cop and give away the national bannk to the American people in the form of tax cuts, and the Demcorats come into office to play the bad cop and pay for the credit card the Republicans ran up, leaving the Dems to raise taxes etc.., and then have it get used against them in the next election. After 8 years, the Dems will get a hold on the debt, and even create a surplus, and then the tax issue will be used against them, and a Republican will win the White House, like in 2000, and proceed to give back th surplus and then some, and run up the debt an additional 3-4 trillion dollars in their 8 years. Who would have thought that the Demcorats would be the party of fiscal conservartives?

goatdan said...

I am wholly amazed with how close everything that you guys did turned out. Amazing job and huge kudos to you.

About the Stevens result that some people were complaining about -- I can't imagine not throwing out all pre-conviction data, and Nate explained what he did and how he did it. The question is why were the pollsters after that data was tossed so far off. Even if somehow they manage to eek out a win, it isn't going to be anywhere near the margins predicted.

Throwing out the pre-conviction polls would have been the absolute right thing to do, had the polls been right and Alaska actually made sense. Unbelievable to me that they actually chose to stick with a convicted felon to represent them, but this election has proven to me a lot of things about what Alaska does is funny stuff, and I think that I do agree that we need to keep them in the union if for no other reason because letting them dink around with the artic however they want clearly isn't in the earth's best interests.

PeteKent said...

Obamanomics

Equities off nearly 500 points.

Obama is no panacea for the market.

Bush could not be handing off to Obama an economy in worse shape.

What a low floor to start from. Obama will have an excuse for a while, but if this drags on for a year and worsens after the start of the second quarter, Obama will be held to account.

Any bets on what he will do?

I am guessing not much except apparent activity.

The Mickey that Bush has slipped him is the threat of inflation. His hands may be tied.

BWAAAAAHAAAAHAAAAAHAAAA!!!!!

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Pete what is even more amazing is that RFK predicted an AA president in 40 years in 1968

mbot said...

Congrats Nate, Sean Brett. Your site brought valuable information to million of readers and helped elect a new president.

noiateerickson said...

As I reflect on how well-run the Obama campaign was run, I have to post my thoughts on there last, and possibly most effective, strategy...


Early October- Ed Rendell, Governor of PA, has an internal message "leaked" urging Obama to spend tons of time in PA because his internal polls show it a dead heat. At the time, I found this strange, because the discipline from the Obama campaign is unprecedented--they don't let anything get out unless they WANT it to get out.

Shortly after, McCain starts pouring time and resources into PA....He or Palin were there almost every day until the election. The McCain camp starts talking up their chances in PA.

The Obama campaign appears slow to respond. Obama makes only a couple visits to PA and appears not to be taking the threat seriously at all....many on this board start freaking out about OMG why is Obama ignoring PA....

Election Day; Obama wins PA, and it wasn't...even....close...

Seems pretty clear to me, that the Obama-orchestrated Rendell "leak" was designed to sap the McCain camp of $ and resources in a state the Obama campaign knew was 100% solid blue....

And it worked.

Wonderful.

PeteKent said...

My President will be Barack Hussein Obama!

****

@petekent,

who will be your president come
January 21, 2009?

misterarthur said...

Thanks to all for an invaluable contribution to pol. junkies like me. Really great and above and beyond anyone else.

SHERWICK said...

McCain had her stay at one of his ranches to practice for the debate, didn't he?

He better count the silverware right away!

P said...

Nate, Sean and Brett: A huge Mahalo for a breathtakingly intelligent and articulate companion guide through this long campaign. Words, tables, graphs, and pictures - it was all just perfect.

TBender said...

Sherwick: Nice comment about the McCain gathering last night.

Someone on MSNBC (? Maddow?) used the term "monochromatic" to describe the scene at the Biltmore.

akoolromeo said...

PeteKent said...
I just realized we are 40 years from the assassinations of RFK and MLK. No denying that Obama is a distillation of their spirits.

****
Whenthe primaries first started, I was drawing parrells to 1968. Oama was in the role of RFK, HIllary was Hubert Humphrey. (The party candidate vs Obama the young "Star") That would put McCain in the role of Nixon. We had an unpopular war, just like in 68, though not to the same extent, and it turns out the war in Iraq wasn't nearly the issue people thought it might have become in this campaign. In the spring, it looked like the Democratic Convention was headed for an ugly fight between the two camps, like 68.
This race was interestin in that it mirrored several prior elections. When Palin was selected, it started to mirror 1988, when Quayle was selected. When the Stock Market crashed, it started to look like the election of 1932, when FDR took office. In the end, it has started to look like 1980, when Reagan won, leaving the Democrats lost in the woods, searching for their identity, and survival.

blkdykegoddess said...

thank you so much for fueling my obsession and my optimism. Get some rest. Ya'll totally deserve it! I love you!!!

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

And all along Eric kept reminding us not to worry about PA---bluer than the country

Bethy said...

Wow!

I just read that Nate has Aspergers! My 15 year old son does too. I can hardly wait to tell him that "everything is possible, even if you do have special needs."

didn't I just hear that somewhere recently? :)

SHERWICK said...

"Election Day; Obama wins PA, and it wasn't...even....close..."

PA: O 54.6, M 44.3.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Kara said...

First time commment too. This was definitely one of the best sites for understanding how we won. I thank you for all your great work. Still cant see straight yet..

pm said...

Just wanted to add to the chorus of praise for this site and your work. As a Londoner, I have been obsessively roaming the net for info on this election but all roads lead back here. Time and again you have grounded me in the facts. The British media were especially in love with the idea of the Bradley Effect and it was good to have an antidote to that. Many many thanks and congratulations.

As Bartlet would say, what's next?

Tabula Rasa said...

i'd like to chime in again to say THANKS to nate, sean and brett for all their awesome work. truly, you guys (and tina fey) have been the mvps for me.

my only gripe (and it's not just you sean, even barack did the same thing last night) is about the misusagestimation of the word "enormity". the way you guys used it is the way wingnuts mean it!

wv: scain. mcpalin lost the election, but they're scain.

SHERWICK said...

Uh oh! Nate got PA wrong!

Nate's final projection for PAwas O53.2, M45.1.

That's quite a bit out!

Why?

Johnkel24 said...

Here's challenge. How does Obama meld his election volunteer force into the existing state Democratic Party organizations? The feeling I got from watching the Missouri Democratic Party celebration last night was that the party leaders viewed the Obama volunteers as outsiders who had no connection with the state and local politics that built their respective party organizations. Someone needs to step up to bat and start harnessing those Obama volunteers' dedication and enthusiasm to work for local and state issues and candidates. There has to be a melding, or the opportunity to continue this new day of politics may be lost.

Kaelin said...

Where are you having beers tonight?

Joe The Fake Virginian said...

@noiateerickson

If even remotely true, then....

Best. Campaign. Ever.

Andy JS said...

The turnout in Georgia rose by just 0.6%. If it had been larger, Obama might have taken the state. Apparently some people saw the long lines during early voting and decided not to vote on election day itself.

Obama can win the state in 2012 instead.

activistmom said...

Lets not give up yet:
(CNN) -- The outcome of an effort to ban same-sex marriage in California remained unclear Wednesday.

Keep hope alive! If last night showed me anything...its that WE CAN DO ANYTHING!!

Peace you guys. Really. We did it. Its still sinking in....there is a huge cloud of peaceful satisfaction settling in, right ahead of the sure knowledge of CHANGE!

YES WE CAN! (I still cant take off the T shirt!. I've worn it for about 13 of the last 15 days.)

Roadysf said...

Nate, Sean and Brett: From the country's bluest city (that would be San Francisco), thank you for a great run of insight, information, and patience. I look forward to continued enjoyment of your extended next venture.

On a more serious note, congratulations on your final predictions (electoral count, popular vote, Senate count) which were presciently on target.

Best,

J. Mike

Mel Mel said...

I've never posted, but after a climax like this, I feel like I should.

For the last month and a half, I've had to force myself to do an hour of work at a time without checking fivethirtyeight. Like others have mentioned, I'm lucky to still have a job.

Thank you to Nate, Sean and Brett for everything you have done. I look forward to following your successes. You will do well for yourselves.

counsellorben said...

I stumbled home after my day of poll watching at my precinct in Montgomery county, PA.  Overall, things ran very smoothly, and we had a turnout rate of over 80% of registered voters in our precinct.

The lines were out the door when the polls opened at 7 am, and we were backed up until 10:30 am, at which time over 40% of RVs had already cast their ballots.  The rest of the day proceeded with steady traffic, and no voters came in after 7:45 pm.

We closed promptly at 8 pm, and the tally was complete by 8:45 pm.

During the day, I worked with the Judge of Elections in the precinct to resolve several issues which might have prevented voters from casting ballots on the machines.  Working together, we were able to assist all of these voters, save one voter who had to cast a provisional ballot.

Next week, when things are calm, I will be contacting our county Democratic party to volunteer for voter protection in all future elections.  I have been infected with the bug, and there is no going back.

FINAL NOTE:

Over the course of the election, I had often predicted that Obama would carry the Philadelphia region by over 500,000 votes, which would lead him to victory in PA.  I am pleased to report that Obama won the Philadelphia region by about 650,000 votes, and his margin in PA was about 603,000 votes.

Goodbye (for now) from communist southeastern PA.

denese said...

Following your website has been one of the most thrilling and productive obsessions I've had in a long while.

Thank you so much for your contribution to my understanding of this historical political process.

I'll never forget it or you.

PeteKent said...

Whither Thou Goest GOP?

The Republican Party will continue to emphasize it being the Party of aspiration of upward mobility brought about by Private Growth. It’s message is a constant.

It will shed its Wall Street wing. The rich capitalists have become too dependent on government protection and they live in deeply Blue states. Let the problems of the financial services industry be left to Governors Corzine and Patterson and Arnold's successor, along with all those Democratic Senators and Congressmen.

The coming recession will hit the financial services industry the hardest and the states that will feel it the worst will be NY, CA, NJ, CT and MA. The Bluest of the Blue! More's the pity!

The millions of lives that are dependent upon the Wall Street teat is now the Democrat's problem. I wish you luck governing and building a coalition with that Albatross around your neck.

Meanwhile, the GOP will emphasize the values of Main Street and Sam's Club, while welcoming the ambitious like Joe the Plumber and Tito the Builder.

We will continue to stand for a traditional kind of morality in opposition to the libertine morals of Hollywood and the Culture of Death of the Democratic Party.

The Republicans represent the best of a proud tradition that stands in awe of American power and sees the nation as a force for good. As McCain puts it: We are not victims of history, we make history! And we make it for the good.

Iraq will ultimately be seen as a tremendous success. Having a base in the heart of the Middle East will help us fight the transcendent evil of our time – radical Islam. The frank recognition of the threat by the Republican Party and its determination to fight it will serve to diminish the Democrats in opposition as the Party of weakness and defeatism. The parallel to the Fall of the Soviet Union is already palpable.

George Will, Peggy Noonan, Colin Powell are dead to us -- Apostates that lacked the capacity to embrace the change within their own party and see the virtue of its traditions and its grounding principles. They have abetted their traditional enemy and have done so for the mess of pottage that is the Obama campaign.

Our new spokesmen are a gal name Sarah and guy name Joe. Our elder Statesmen is none other than Charles Krauthammer, who alone among the polemicists this year spoke with a clarity of vision and understood the stakes and principles involved in this election and held true to them.

We are not a Party in schism; we are a party in resurgence. In a crucible of fire, steel is forged. We are finding our way once more.

SHERWICK said...

where's the latest count for 8?

Jon said...

I'd have saved myself a lot of anguish had I allowed myself to believe your predictions! As it was, I read them obsessively but they seemed too good to be true.

As it turned out, they were just about exactly good enough.

Congratulations to you. And us.

TBender said...

The Democrats only hope that the Republican party casts out the intellectual conservatives and keeps allows Palin to lead it.

That will make things much easier over the next 8 years.

PeteKent said...

akoolromeo said...
PeteKent said...
I just realized we are 40 years from the assassinations of RFK and MLK. No denying that Obama is a distillation of their spirits.

****
Whenthe primaries first started, I was drawing parrells to 1968. Oama was in the role of RFK, HIllary was Hubert Humphrey. (The party candidate vs Obama the young "Star") That would put McCain in the role of Nixon. We had an unpopular war, just like in 68, though not to the same extent, and it turns out the war in Iraq wasn't nearly the issue people thought it might have become in this campaign. In the spring, it looked like the Democratic Convention was headed for an ugly fight between the two camps, like 68.
This race was interestin in that it mirrored several prior elections. When Palin was selected, it started to mirror 1988, when Quayle was selected. When the Stock Market crashed, it started to look like the election of 1932, when FDR took office. In the end, it has started to look like 1980, when Reagan won, leaving the Democrats lost in the woods, searching for their identity, and survival.

*******

So true. This year is the re-run of 1968, except Bobby lives and he is Black man named barry from Chicago. Better pedigree than the Boston Brahmin, if you ask me.

Pat Kight said...

Thanks guys. You not only provided the best analysis of the campaign season, but your level-headedness saved some of us from racking up huge bills for therapy and sedatives in the final weeks.

Steve said...

Excellent work, guys! Really a great mix of math magic for the engineer in me, plus great personal insights and geography from the road trip stories. An unbelievable and very much appreciated effort.

Congratulations on your success, both with the models and with the web site's success.

Universal Donor said...

Last night, I was one of the only people at my election-viewing party not surprised by the presidential outcome, and I owe it all to my discovery of your site (while watching The Colbert Report). For the last month, I reloaded your page a dozen times daily, and once I was confident Obama would win, I became more involved with close senate races -- even making donations in Alaska and Minnesota. I feel like a better citizen because of better data.

I am so happy to see how accurate your predictions were -- happy for you, happy for stat geeks everywhere (go FJM!), and happy for America -- I felt so let down by predictions in the last two presidential elections, but now I feel like I finally have a source I can trust.

Thank you for restoring the integrity of my sleep.

Love, Jeremy

Brian N. said...

This is undoubtedly one of the defining moments of our generation... in the same way 9/11 seared our memory with mutual pain, this has imprinted our memory with a sense of mutual hope. If Obama was your candidate, you will never forget last night.

Sounds hokey, but I believe it.

Randy said...

You guys rock.

Do a post on the Alaska Senate race.

Tim Gunter said...

This web site had it right! Obama won the exact states this web site predicted he would. I am quite pleased. I am very happy and very excited that Obama is our next president.

eliza said...

hi all. first time commenting; i discovered you all through huffington post and found myself so enjoying the weekly poll update that by the end i was glued to your site, waiting in amsterdam for the daily updates! you all rock. thanks for all the hard work. i can feel the burst coming on as i have to turn back to life again, rebuilding a sense of normacy after weeks of fluttering excitement highs. i especially congratulate you on always posting solid work, not wishful thinking. love and hope from amsterdam**

Diane said...

You guys helped make this election season sane. Every time I worried about Obama pullng it out, I checked with you all and felt better. There was something soothing and comforting in all those numbers.
Whatcha going ta do now?

Bethy said...

Sorry if this shows twice, couldn't find it first time:

You expressed so well, what I have known was on the horizon for millions of us. I have only experienced something similar after donating over 100 hours in two weeks at the 2002 Winter Olympics. It was eventually dubbed the "Post-Olympic Blues."

However, this is much different. I am still in the exhausted and elated, joyful, did I say exhausted mode.

It is as if there is no real tomorrow, just today. Not sure how to articulate that. -Time.

beamman said...

Thanks, Sean, Nate and Brett for a great site. You guys kept me calm during the worst of times!

Off topic, I know: But did anyone see how much of a douche Norm Coleman is being--chastising Franken for wanting to waste the cost of a recount when the "people have spoken"?.... Christ! His lead is all of 700 votes right now!

Dave said...

Also a first-time poster, but obsessive fivethirtyeight junkie.

Thanks to the three of you for the incredible work. The projections were amazing in their technicality and accuracy. The analysis was spot on. The hands on reporting was exceptional. The photos were inspiring.

Now go get yourselves drunk tonight, because tomorrow there's still work to do, dammit. I'm a Minnesotan and we need Franken to find those 700 votes in the recount!

Linguist said...

Last night was pure elation.

Today, I feel as if I have been kicked in the gut. California has made it very clear that the most important relationship in my life is worthy of scorn, something that others get to VOTE ON.

I no longer feel elated.

I feel like an outsider, part of one of the latest group of innocent outsiders to be picked on.

I just feel really, really, really sad.

Joe Kowalski said...

"Uh oh! Nate got PA wrong!....Why?"

Maybe some sort of Reverse Bradley "we're voting for the N****r" effect?

Peter said...

The very best regards from Heidelberg, Germany!
Congratulations to your new President! The United States truely is the country, where (almost) all things are possible.
Keep your enthusiasm - and work for the change, the US need.

Thanks again for your great website - I enjoyed it a lot, by the way, it was even on german television last night.

Keep on going!

Peter Neubauer

stuc0219 said...

Thank you guys, you're amazing. There are some of us that can deal with creative and some the numbers. You guys rock rock rock at polling and evaluation and trust me, there were many days through this that the numbers were the only grounding thing I had going.

What an extraordinary service you provided. Now go rest! :)

grinder said...

Today, I feel as if I have been kicked in the gut. California has made it very clear that the most important relationship in my life is worthy of scorn, something that others get to VOTE ON.

This is one of the races that hangs in the balance with absentee votes still out. Remember, 11-12% of the votes haven't been counted in the presidential race. I went over the top about not declaring victory etc., but there are a lot of undecided races remaining, not to mention a lot of opportunities for Ohio-style mischief.

Prop 8 is about 500,000 votes ahead right now, with upwards of 2 million mail-in ballots uncounted.