[Brett Marty is doing heroic photographic work for FiveThirtyEight. He's a perceptive guy, and there is absolutely no way I could have done this trip without his help, in a hundred ways that don't show up in the proverbial box score. He has his own website here, BrettMarty.com, where Nate and I encourage readers to peruse (and buy!) the now hundreds of photos from this epic journey. He's also written more about the trip along with a massive photo compendium here. Brett has a very non-numbers based gut, and I get the pleasure of hearing his innumerable and varied predictions on a daily basis. On behalf of Nate, I'd like to present to you, our loyal readers, Brett J. Marty's bite at the prediction apple. -- Sean]
-- by Brett Marty
10.) EV: Obama 396 -- Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, FL, OH, MO, NC, IN, MT, ND, GA. The state Obama will win by the smallest margin will be Georgia, the closest state he'll lose will be West Virginia.
09.) Chris Matthews will be defeated in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Democratic primary race by Chuck Todd.
08.) Georgia Senate will go to a runoff. Obama organizers will flood Georgia, and Martin will win to capture the 60th democratic seat (including Lieberman).
07.) Nate will lose credibility when photos of his Ashley Todd Halloween costume start showing up on the interwebs.
06.) Turnout: 147,538,538. Obama will win the popular vote by 6.4%.
05.) Sean will be cleared of all wrongdoing.
04.) We'll know the election is over when the nets call Virginia for Obama at 8:40pm EST.
03.) Barack will personally request I be his White House photographer, and I will take it under advisement.
02.) On November the 5th, FiveThirtyEight will shock the political world by turning into a porn site -- but a high quality one that continues to challenge conventional wisdom.
01.) No how, no way:
Full Disclosure: But, you know, I'm just a photographer.
11.01.2008
Brett Marty's Ten Predictions -- From the Gut
@ 4:48 PM
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171 comments
love it!
A little too optimistic.
Honestly, i don´t trust this prediction.
I hope you're right about 8:40 pm EST. I'll be pretty drunk if it goes much later than that.
Brett's in the tank. Be sure to keep your photography site up after the election. I haven't been able to purchase a photograph yet, but I will after I recover from the amount of money I've donated to campaigns this season.
failize: The McCain/Palin campaign.
Is that last picture of Palin photoshopped?
well at least you'd make money with the site change eh?
good work btw.
for those interested here is Brett's Dkos massive post with photos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/1/164318/884/317/648547
That's a real photo Brett took. No photoshop. Wilmington, Ohio, October 9, 2008.
LOL!
I'll take all 10.
You rock, Brett :-)
Please let the Chris Matthews prediction be true...WV jetrica..the airline company in Costa Rica I'll be starting if McCain wins
Porn on the internets?
Now I've heard it all!
Here's a curious and completely off topic thought (given the light heartedness of this topic, I feel it is within reason to do)...
If there were a presidential race with 3 competitive candidates (2 major party and 1 other), would it be possible for one candidate to win the popular vote but win NO electoral votes?
Or conversely, would it be possible to WIN the electoral vote (thereby winning the election), but come in 3rd with the popular vote?
That's real? ALL THE WAY BACK FROM 10/9?! LMFAO!!!
But, if Obama wins Georgia, I don't see how it could go to a runoff. He'd almost certainly coat-tail Martin to victory, especially since Martin is doing just as good as him numbers wise.
"That's a real photo Brett took. No photoshop. Wilmington, Ohio, October 9, 2008."
Wow. Thanks, Sean.
Can you imagine Biden signing one of those with his name for 2012?
Lots of thinking with the gut here on 538 today!
First Nate makes an adjustemnt to the model partly because his gut thought it was the right thing to do.
Now Brett weighs in with his gut predictions.
Sean,
You actually seem to be the most emotional of the bunch. What with being moved to tears (a beautiful moment that we are glad you shared BTW) and such. Is your gut talking to you today too?
Brett, Thanks for your amazing photography and I'm mostly feeling your gut...My prediction is O 382, M 156 - all your states but not MO or MT...I also think Sarah Palin will not be a candidate in 2012. And if this site is half the porn site it's been as an election site...well...
I would be a very happy American if Brett's predictions work out. Happy for many reasons, with Obama being President maybe second!
unlics -- the antithesis of Brett's prediction!
I think the electoral college is going to be crazy. States not following proper sequence.
Like Obama winning Missouri while losing Florida, or winning Montana while losing North Dakota.
*in my best Monty Burns*
Egggggggcellent!
What a great ten. As Tweety would say, HA!
There will be a run-off in Georgia and I feel sorry for the voters there. Talk about a barrage of phone calls! They are all going to be swearing off phones.
Awesome... Obama will personally request me as his White House barmaid, too, and I'm planning to accept.
porn? as in Atrios Poll Porn?
this is already a porn site, just one of the political nature
ABC tracking same as yesterday, Obama 53 McCain 44
You fools, Obama's aunt!!!
I predict this outrageous turn of events hands John McCain Over 9000 Electoral Votes.
peixegato- If memory serves me right you're talking about Benjamin Harrison vs Rutherford B Hayes in the portion of history that usually gets skipped over quickly because the teacher wants to get to the next war in High School. Too much economics & sociology, not enough war.
Or I could be completely wrong there, but that one was cracked (or one around that time).
I am still holding out for West Virginia. Other than that, I'm with you on the EV.
Brett, Sean, and Nate - y'all rock so heartily, that there aren't enough words in the Real American (TM) language to express your awesomeness. This site has kept me sane (or close) through this election. May your future unconventional pornographic endeavors meet with the success you so clearly deserve!
Brett and Sean thank you for all your work---is there a possibilty of a book?
I'm really optimistic right now. Of course, that worries me.
P.S.: That idea about turning this into a high-class porn site. Frankly, I doubt anyone would ever want to watch porn while sitting at his computer. Wouldn't it be uncomfortable? Better reconsider!
Can it please be a Gay porn site?
WV: unbeter...what the McCain-Palin ticket is for America.
@ clarissa
I didn't realize that it might have happened already, I was just wondering if it was possible. It seems to me that if either scenario did come to pass, we'd have a very shaky situation where the person who was elected President was clearly NOT the choice of the people.
Brett should create a Coffee table Book of his and Sean's and Nate's electoral oddyssey. They could sample some of the better blog posts . . . ahem!
Brett and Sean,
Always enjoyed your great images and stories. You should definitely consider to put your journey into book form!
Very good Pete.
ok, I was wrong it was Hayes vs Samuel Tilden (B Harrison won w/losing pop vote in 1888). Still pretty ugly.
Things we won't have to hear after the 2008 election is a blowout!
Simpsons' Mr. Burns: "All right. Now, what acts of unmitigated evil shall the Republican party get up to this time?"
Ralph Nader: [waves hand] "Oooh! Oooh! I know!"
Mr. Burns: "Heh. Heh. That's alright. You've already done enough Nader."
vw: "Everfeed" -- what keeps Rush Limbaugh so fat.
Looking forward to viewing some hot numbers on that porn site.
10.) EV: Obama 396 -- Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, FL, OH, MO, NC, IN, MT, ND, GA. The state Obama will win by the smallest margin will be Georgia, the closest state he'll lose will be West Virginia.
This was my exact projection as of 3 days ago. 396 electoral votes and 6-7% margin fo victory. I'm sensing that the undecideds might break slightly more to McCain and give him part of this group (Georgia, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana). Hence, my range is down to 349-396 and my popular vote projection is down to 4.5-6%, instead of 6-7.5%.
Brett should create a Coffee table Book of his and Sean's and Nate's electoral oddyssey. They could sample some of the better blog posts . . . ahem!
PeteKent, they could have an entire chapter just on you, entitled "Sybil Speaks."
Thanks Brett!
The polls have been moving.
Sean showed us he was moved.
Your photos moved me.
I'll take all of your predictions except for no 1! I'd love to see Palin 2012! Sure that hand AK to GOP but they would not win any other state.
Look out Letterman. Bless your heart! lol I can see President Obama from my house. Bah Bye Palin!
Fingers crossed on the porn thing!
Word verification: fluckers Too easy, but Florida Republican voters, in my opinion.
Nothing on Drudge about the Palin prank, but he's blaring away about Obama's aunt.
Not that anyone should be surprised.
NO, actually it didn't happen needed research.
We need regular "From the Gut with Brett Marty" blog entries that mix insight and humor like this one. They could be formatted in lists, but they wouldn't all have to be.
hmm interesting, when you shift the weight to the current polling, McCain is doing better, and better in swing states...
...but the polls aren't tightening...
sure...
Did Nate have RCP carved in his face?
Too close to call gut predictions
FL, GA, NC, IN, MT, ND, AZ, NV, NE (2ND CD)
WV = flings - finally a real word.
I doubt Sean will be cleared of all wrongdoing.
I......I think I love you. This was hilarious, optimistic, and I hope you're right.
I'd love to see Nate's costume.
If FiveThirtyEight goes porn, what kind of porn? This is a very important question.
what does "wv" mean?
They're running out of fake words---so more and more real words will be popping up.
flums-new hybrid--flat plums
Peixegato
One fairly easy (if insanely unlikely) way would be if one of the three narrowly won enough states to win while, while the other two candidates win every other states by huge margins. This could put the electoral winner into third in the popular vote. At that point, the popular vote race between the other two could work similarly to Hayes-Tilden, Bush-Gore, or Jackson-Adams.
Of course, this is absurdly unlikely for any number of reasons.
Clarissa, while that scenario hasn't really happened, there were large 3rd party showings in many elections in the 19th and 20th centuries. For the record, Harrison defeated Grover Clevland in 1888 and Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden in 1976.
WV: borimp - an unexciting zepplin.
word verification
crating--see what I mean
Oh yes, please more pics from that girl in the t-shirt. Please!
Look at how many offices are in Montana. I think it'll flip. North Dakota has only one and Ga has like 7. I think Georgia should have been more invested in. Get the kids to the polls.And there should be a democratic plan to flip Texas within 8 years.
I would have said that Carlos---but then I'd be a dirty old man
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mtoffices/
Brett-
please take the white house job.
i know your a humble guy and all, but go with your gut and record history.
oh wait, you have already.
your photography has moved many people myself and others here on this site. this is a historic election and know of no other photographer has saved this moment like you have.
thanks.
Eric said...
States considered Swing States at one point or another Projection:
(somewhat difficult because we don't now exactly whose name appears as third part candidates in each state. I'm in texas. Bob Barr is on te ballot, Nader is not.)
National Obama +4.9%
Kerry Blue States
Oregon Obama +13
Washington Obama +12
Michigan Obama +11
Wisconsin Obama +10
Minnesota Obama +10
Maine district 2 Obama +9
New Hampshire Obama +9
Pennsylvania Obama +7
Bush Red States
New Mexico Obama +12
Iowa Obama +10
Nevada Obama +10
Virginia Obama +8
Colorado Obama +7
Ohio Obama +5
Florida Obama +4
North Carolina Obama +2
Missouri Tied (within 1 point)
Georgia Tied (within 1 point)
Indiana McCain +2
North Dakota McCain +3
Arizona McCain +3
Mississippi McCain +3
Montana McCain +4
Louisiana McCain +5
Omaha McCain +6
Tennessee McCain +7
West Virginia McCain +7
Arkansas McCain +8
Obama wins between 349-375 electoral votes
Popular vote
Obama 51.4
McCain 46.5
Barr 1.2
Nader 0.8
Mckinney 0.1
59 Dem Senators (including Liberman and Sanders)
134,000,000 total voters
What do you think? Too low on turnout? Obama's popular vote margin?
Awesome!
Ohh, boy. I would love if No. 10 happened... I just don't think it will. I don't think Indiana is in play, personally.
Regarding ARG's new PA number, what was the spread last time that state was polled?
PeixeGato,
yes, it's possible. Say there are three candidates A, B, and C. One candidate that wins 36% of the vote in each state. In states making half the electoral votes, B gets 40% and C gets 24%; in the other half, B gets 24% and C gets 40%.
Then B and C win all the electoral votes. But B and C each get 32% of the popular vote, and A gets 36%.
To answer the other question, yes, a candidate in a three-party race could win the electoral vote but come in third in the popular vote. Again consider three candidates A, B, C. In stakes making half the electoral votes, A gets 40%, B 30%, and C 30%. In the other half, B and C are roughly evenly matched (say B wins half the states, and half the popular votes) and A gets no votes at all. Then A gets half the electoral votes, but only 20% of the popular vote; B and C each get 25% of the electoral vote and 40% of the popular vote.
Of course, things like this don't actually happen; these are the sorts of examples one sees in textbooks and papers on the mathematics of voting, but not in reality.
Great post Mr. Marty!
Do yi have a view on Ms. Palin's last complete f'up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc
@Bret--
I love your photographs, your analysis, and your dedication to documenting this historic campaign.
I really appreciate the contributions you're making to FiveThirtyEight.
Grace Notes
There is no doubt that McCain ran a respectful campaign.
The two highest grace notes of the past few months have belonged to McCain. His congratulatory commercial the night of Obama's nomination and his excellent speech at the Al Smith Dinner in which he recognized with conviction the specialness of Obama's place in history and how we all as Americans must stand in pride and awe over it.
I don't think Obama beat either of those two moments for all his cotton candy pretty rhetoric.
Word ver; bodes -- unwell for McC!
WV = "matheric". Nate Silver is the original matheric of electoral projections.
PeteKent said...
Grace Notes
There is no doubt that McCain ran a respectful campaign.
;-))
ok brett,I'll take this:
"04.) We'll know the election is over when the nets call Virginia for Obama at 8:40pm EST.
***********
and congratulation for your job.
:)
"There is no doubt that McCain ran a respectful campaign.
The two highest grace notes of the past few months have belonged to McCain. His congratulatory commercial the night of Obama's nomination and his excellent speech at the Al Smith Dinner in which he recognized with conviction the specialness of Obama's place in history and how we all as Americans must stand in pride and awe over it."
LOL
OMG please stop. You made me snarf soda on my keyboard.
What is amazing is that you probably believe what you wrote.
Regarding ARG's new PA number, what was the spread last time that state was polled?
It was O+4 on 9/21.
Brett
nice :D
The 2 minute Obama commercial ran during halftime of the FL-GA game.
2 birds with one commercial
Josh Micah Marshall is as temperate and unradical as any progressive blogger.
He expresses my feeling about the vile, disgusting McCain campaign, the worst GOP presidential candidate ever. McCain has brought shame upon himself and his party:
For my own part, obviously, I hope Barack Obama can pull off a victory on Tuesday. But more than that, I hope the result of the election can be a rebuke, a closing of the book on McCainism and the moral filth it has come to represent. I'm under no illusion that negative or even nasty campaigning will come to an end in the USA. I don't think that's realistic or even necessarily desirable. Hard-fought and brass-knuckle politics is something built into the fiber of American politics. It's part and parcel of the intensity of belief and passion that many of us have for the issues at stake in our elections.
But McCain's campaign has devolved into something altogether different ... what with its increasingly open appeals to racial conflict and aggressive invocations of blood hatred of Arabs and Muslims. As The New Republic phrases it, McCain's "subtle incitements of racial warfare and underhanded implications of foreign nativity." Over the months we've become desensitized to the moral depravity of McCain's campaign.
There is of course what appears to be a more conventional attack on economics and taxes. But 'socialism' refers, if we can speak in shorthand, to state ownership of large portions of the economy. In other words, something like the Bush administration's decision to have the government purchase a large amount of the financial services industry. But as John Judis notes, a closer look at the language and imargery McCain's 'socialism' pitch reveals it's actually "about whites paying their taxes so that lazy, indolent, unemployed blacks can live off them."
RE: Third Party Candidates
George Wallace won 13.5% of the vote and 46 electoral votes as a third party cnadidate in 1968.
He won LA, MS, AR, AL, GA, and part of NC. He also finished 2nd in NC, SC, TN, and KY.
the 30 minute infomercial that obama ran - a large pile of s***
Cheney endorsement
Palin pranked
A banner weekend for JOHN MCCAIN!
David said...
OMG please stop. You made me snarf soda on my keyboard.
What is amazing is that you probably believe what you wrote.
David, please he's joking. It's funny!
Oh the irony - McCain endorsed by Dick Cheney AND al qaeda!
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA
PPP has a PA Poll out tomorrow night. Their hint:
"Chill Out
We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.
And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon. "
Very nice. Very Breakfast Club.
Thanks for all the pictures, Brett. They were incredible.
Here's a prediction on how the election will go, including breakdowns of the time each state will be called and when the election will be called.
http://www.the-numbers.com/thecrunch/?p=42
Thanks for the post sfergus---it cannot be said better.
geothe---some kind of philosopher
Eric said...
Obama wins between 349-375 electoral votes
Popular vote
Obama 51.4
McCain 46.5
Barr 1.2
Nader 0.8
Mckinney 0.1
59 Dem Senators (including Liberman and Sanders)
134,000,000 total voters
What do you think? Too low on turnout? Obama's popular vote margin?
November 1, 2008 4:22 PM
**************
if so:
****balls explode !!!!**********
:)
I.C.E. statement: Agency probes possible leak on Obama aunt
FL: McCain 47, Obama 47 (Datamar-10/29-30)
Great video strowbridge!
What is the i.c.e Joe
sauddil-arab pickle
http://www.datamar.net/pdf/flpg103108fri.pdf
It was O+4 on 9/21
Thanks! Wow, I'm amazed they've gone more than a month between polls for PA. O_o
(WV: puliz - how Borat refers to law enforcement.)
nam vet joe from jersey said...
What is the i.c.e Joe
ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
I agree with every comment but the last one. If Barack asks anyone to be his official White House photographer, it will be me. I was his first official photographer, and he remembers.
Thank you joey.
Game changer!
Obama just now in Pueblo, about what public officials need to do to end gridlock:
"Stop bickering, stay off of cable news shows!"
Chris Matthews comes on in 15 minutes - I wonder if he noticed
Brett,
Your work here has been quite outstanding. The "On the Road" series you and Sean provided has been one of the most interesting part of this campaign for me - exactly the kind of thing I used to like to read in a newspaper.
Anyhow, keep up the good work!
Folks, have a look at those articles:
why Obama will win Virginia and Colorado!
The definitive proof that McCain can't catch Obama!
if you want to follow our coverage of the election night, bookmark this Link
there you will find starting from 6.30pm ET (eastern time zone) the link to our video podcast with the results. We will call the states few minutes before the CNN and the other media using the Lollomedia system that predicted the italian administrative election result this year.
Sarah Palin gets prank called
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc
She is unbelievably stupid.
Pretty funny - I had a conversation with my husband this morning about what I would do with my lunch break at work when the election is over, and I would no longer be reading fivethirtyeight.com. I joked that I'd be cruising the internet for porn instead. If fivethirtyeight.com becomes a porn site, I won't have to change my habits - the only thing that would change is the content.
2 points fewer blacks in the new FL poll and 2 points fewer for Obama.
Coincidence? ;)
The race look really stable for some weeks. Not only nationally...
Palin Prank Call
http://www.tindeck.com/audio/filestore/w/wwdo-SarahPalin.mp3
24 million votes already cast, including:
2 million in Georgia
Almost 4 million in Florida
600k in Nevada
2.3 million in North Carolina
All these are key states and those numbers represent more than half of the 2004 totals in each state.
This election has already been decided.
Total votes in US presidential elections:
1996: 96 million
2000: 105 million
2004: 122 million
The increase from 2004 to 2008 could well be larger than the increase between 2000 and 2004.
If true, that would mean at least 140 million voters.
"If there were a presidential race with 3 competitive candidates (2 major party and 1 other), would it be possible for one candidate to win the popular vote but win NO electoral votes?
Or conversely, would it be possible to WIN the electoral vote (thereby winning the election), but come in 3rd with the popular vote?"
Obviously, these are both mathematical possibilities, but neither have happened.
The historical election that's perhaps the most interesting in terms of how widely the electoral and popular can diverge was the 1860 election: Lincoln's first election.
Lincoln won a plurality of the popular vote, but actually got under 40% of the popular vote (39.65%). Despite getting under 40% of the popular vote, he won a majority in the Electoral College even if you only count states where he won over 50% in the state - 173 out of 303 (he also won CA and OR for a total of 180).
He did this, of course, by getting almost literally no votes in the South. In fact, he got literally no votes in AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, TN, and TX. South Carolina apparently didn't participate in the election (according to my source). Some other examples of Lincoln's unpopularity in slave states: he got 1,887 votes out of 166,891 cast in VA, and 2,294 out of 92,502 in MD.
Needless to say, the election of a President with no support in one region of the country wasn't the best thing for the short-term stability of United States.
source: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=1860&off=0&f=1
McCain WIll lose big, and this why:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
Is a 147 million turnout really possible? Let's see. In 2004 it was 122 million (55.3 % of voting age population) and in 2000 it was 105 million (51.3% of voting age population.) Voting age population (VAP) is of course very different from the Registered Voter population. It's higher and, for one thing, includes non-citizens.
As of July 2007, the US VAP was estimated at 227 M. Let's make that 235M today. If folks vote at the same rate as 2004, that would get us to about 130M voters.
That's a long way from 147 M. In fact, we'd need a leap to 62.6% of VAP to get there. I'm guessing that 135M is plausible, but much higher would be a real surprise. Still, I'm hoping for all the voters we can get.
what is Bush's fav rating down to now? 10%?
Today our Obama calling center made over 3000 calls in 5 hours. We had over 50 volunteers.
We made so many calls that Chicago was holding us up. They couldn't get the new phone numbers to us fast enough.
Best Answer in FL to the question of who you will vote for: Isnt everyone voting for Obama. I don't know anyone voting for McCain
Blowout in the works!
is all of Virginia voting early with an excuse or just Fairfax? I notie 17% in Fairfax . is that about the same throughout the state or is Fairfax the only county allowed to vote early?
Brett I love your photos and I agree with your predictions. Its going to be a blow out. You and Nate and Sean, you guys are the best and I will buy some of those photos. I love the one of the iron bridge. Kinda like the rust belt rising to the sky. Alot like this election.
Thanx for a great post Brett. Would be nice to have more "gut feeling" posts from you. Your photographs are wonderful, and I love all the work you guys put into this site. OH and I second the desire for gay porn site.... or maybe midget porn....
Maybe it's time to explain 538's wv game at the top of the comments.
Hey, who would expect a bunch of math nerds to have fun with words?
WV +word verification. The letters you have to type in to post a comment, and any definition or comment about the 'word', including using it in a sentence.
skirpe: an alcoholic drink concocted when you have already had too much.
Surely a 65% turnout of the voting age population is possible? After the huge early voting we've seen, I say it would be a disappointment not to reach that level.
With 235 million people in the voting age population, a 65% turnout would mean 153 million voters.
406, if we win AZ, that would be an epic suprise.
Ok, so that Palin prank is good. Question: am I being pranked too, for believing it's real? (If so I don't feel too bad since I have no plans to run for president in 2012.)
wv: Moksies as in "I don't have the moksies to relax until Nov 5th"
Al Giordano on FL
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/
No 5 is great news!!!!!!!!!! For Sean!!!!!!!!!!! (sorry someone had to do it!)
OK, on further consideration I think 140 million voters is not impossible. That would be an increase to 59.3% of VAP (voting age population). The reason I went to that particular number is that there was a 4% jump from 2000's 51.3% of VAP to 2004's 55.3 of VAP. Given the intense interest in this election, the likely enhanced turnout of younger and minority voters (who typically undervote their numbers), and the powerful Obama GOTV operation, a another jump of 4% in voting vs VAP seems plausible. This is underscored by the very high early voting figures.
One thing's for sure: if 140 million people vote, it's an Obama and Democratic landslide.
donna said...
Ok, so that Palin prank is good. Question: am I being pranked too, for believing it's real? (If so I don't feel too bad since I have no plans to run for president in 2012.)
No, her campaign has responded to Politico about it.
All reasonable, except #5. Sean will get the chair.
I would swap MT for AZ.
mishoss - Is Bonanza on soon? I don't wanna mishoss.
ah I remember MSNBC making a big deal of the palin signing those palion 2012 posters and one mccain rep saying something about it....then the next day mccain reps spending all day sqaushing that story on MSNBC and CNN...
As for the palin prank call WoW...just WoW....
a perfect storm ?
developing..
And if anyone knows that the site is going to turn into a porn site, it surely has to be the site photographer?
Come on real joe don't tease.
WV: slymode: (too easy)
WV: lutedr: (come on give me a hard one!)
I can't believe the increase in turnout from 2004 to 2008 will be less than between 2000 and 2004. The latter increase was 4%, from 51% to 55%. It should be at least another 5% this time, taking VAP turnout to 60%. But 65% would be nice.
A porn site! There are women who read this website too, you know! Come on now.
For what it's worth -
Drudge's lead item among 4 poll
links is:
Gallup - historic blowout for Obama
And his big item (the aunt, no surprise) includes the dirty tricks at ICE charge
He's definitely coming around, at least at the moment
SNL needs to do a sketch on that prank call. Would be incredible.
I have to say, I was both amused and scared to death when I heard it. To think this clueless ninny could be next in line for president? If that doesn't motivate us, I don't know what will.
Washington Post now has the prank call on the front page (online). Not good for Sarah.
Ok mark irene down as not into porn.
I said this morning that the illegal aunt story would backfire and hurt McCain more than it would hurt Obama. Now the Bush administration and McCain Campaign are being investigated.
Great job Sean and Brett.
Free internet porn available on Nov.5th = Great News! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!
"A porn site! There are women who read this website too, you know! Come on now."
Some women like porn. Awesome women.
For the people who were freaking out about the Zogby tracking poll earlier: We now have six other tracking polls released today and none of them show McCain gaining ground. Hopefully you learned a lesson about listening to Zogby/Drudge.
Doonesbury's Gary Trudeau reads 538, proof is in this article:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/doonesbury-comic-strip-pr_n_140033.html
McCain doesn't want to push the Aunt story because he's already hurting with the Hispanic vote in Arizona. In fact, this story could help carry his home state for Obama.
irene said...
A porn site! There are women who read this website too, you know! Come on now.
don't worry Irene
the site will have women-women action
LOL
Wow, I'm really impressed. There are a lot of political pundits in this nation, but the Washington Post selects Nate Silver as one of the 14 it publishes in it's Crystal Ball Predictions 2008!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
Palin/Cleese 2012!
Stout yeoman:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3KBuQHHKx0
Michael Palin, YEAH!!
@real joe
if this site turns into women-women porn, for the sake of decency, can they at least be legally married?? ;-)
so Obama is going to lose FL?
donna said...
@real joe
if this site turns into women-women porn, for the sake of decency, can they at least be legally married?? ;-)
November 1, 2008 5:36 PM
***********
yes,of cuorse.
Real Joe believes in marriage between a man and a womEn.
LOL
LOL cool...pat buchanan citing zogby as mccain coming back and winning the election (possibly).....
CloudyFuture said...
so Obama is going to lose FL?
November 1, 2008 5:38 PM
***********
nope.
Obama is going to loose hell in FL.
donna said...
@real joe
if this site turns into women-women porn, for the sake of decency, can they at least be legally married?? ;-)
LOL
WP / ABC News Tracking Poll: Obama 53, McCain 44
"dear friend",
I am suspending my campaign right now I gotta go.
Have fun.
:)
Maybe this idiot skit is more appropo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBNqUdqm1E
Pat Buchanan mentioned Zogby as an aside. He makes it clear who he assumes will win.
CBS
Obama 54
McCain 41
That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.
Brett's photo diary is now at the top of the rec list on Daily Kos. Well done, Brett!
Brett,
love your work, however, your state list adds up to 401 EVs.
Cheers,
oh, never mind... I put WV blue. Sorry about that!
new thread
This thing has LANDSLIDE written all over it! 3 days to go and I have nothing left to worry about. Go figure.
wv: glums (latest nickname for McCain supporters)
PLEASE consider doing a coffee table book of photographs. It would be awesome! I suspect if you contacted a publisher or three right after the election that they could get it out in the stores before Inauguration Day, and it would sell truckloads!
That's something I've been curious about lately--what does FiveThirtyEight plan on doing after the election? I really hope it doesn't just evaporate into the interwebs, because I've had a grand time perusing it and enjoy your wit and wisdom. Are you going to keep parsing public opinion polls, or are you just an election-based thing?
The porn thing makes me feel a little dirty for recommending this site to my poli-sci professors. As long as Sean is still chuckling from the sidelines, I don't care. And I can't wait to hear a Silverian dismissal of the Bradley Effect as it relates to porn preferences.
Hermist: What I will become if McCain wins.
Thanks for the laugh Brett.
Between 364 and 406 EV's for sure.
This already is a porn site for a lot of us.
oh, please do a book of your election photos, Brett. All those people. I want one.
I hope you are already working on it.
Good idea, rramstad.
Completely off topic, but prediction #2 reminded me of one of the greatest commercials ever recorded:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDrqNQwIdRc
Please heed KG & Steph's warning and be sure it remains tasteful.
That palin 2012 poster strikes fear in my heart... and I am a Republican.
Predictions? I'm gonna say Obama wins (McCain's ship hit the iceberg a long time ago)
Obamas EV #'s wil be:
311
326
338
353
I personally think the number will be 326 or 338.
Popular vote? Obama 53.1%. Actually going to be quite interesting with the popular vote. Some say it means nothing but I am interested to see if the country as a whole is still swinging red. Might have to go ahead and call it purple-blue.
LOL. I've been wondering what the future will be for this web site, now I know! Sign me up!
Brett-love your work and excellent post. Disagree on MT and ND, agree on GA. In fact, I called it on my website three weeks ago when no poll put it under 6.
http://dagblog.com/politics/shocker-obama-wins-georgia
From your lips to the nets' ears on Tuesday!
I found Nate's "Ashley Todd" photo!
http://blingee.com/blingee/view/74921641-Superstar-Nate-Silver
It's really real and not something I made while watching this very weird Patriots game.
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