Democrat Mark Begich will win the Alaska Senate race.
With 14,626 counted of the roughly 24,000 ballots left to count today, Begich's lead over Republican Ted Stevens is now, 2,374. The remaining results are expected to arrive later this afternoon. Stevens would have to win by a margin of over 25% of the outstanding ballots to tie Begich.
That would require something of a Gravelanche.
[UPDATE]: 8,212 more ballots in, that should be it except a few straggling votes. Begich by 3,724. Recount would cost $15,000.
Currently, Begich leads by 0.77%, which is outside the free 0.5% recount zone. The recount fee is a paltry $15,000, not a sum Stevens has ever had trouble acquiring via one means or another. Given his likely expulsion by either the Republican caucus or the U.S. Senate as a whole (though we are in "reconciliation" mode, so who knows?), it seems unlikely anyone besides Stevens himself would have the desire to pursue such action. Still, the Anchorage Daily News calls such a recount "likely."
Congratulations, Senator Begich.
11.18.2008
Begich Will Be Alaska's First U.S. Senate Democrat Since Gravel
@ 6:00 PM
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So, 60 senators remains a possibility. Begich and Lieberman were nailed down today. So now it's 58-40 with two left to decide. If 538.com is right about Franken having a good chance to squeak by Coleman and Martin having a fighting chance against Chambliss, it could be an interesting world come January 3, 2009.
This is great news...FOR TED STEVENS AND SARAH PALIN!
Congratulations, Senator Begich.
Wow. A Democratic senator from Alaska. And all it took was running against someone who was convicted of multiple felonies days before the election!
Oh ho! We're creeping up to the magic number 60! The whole reconciliation with Lieberman is making more and more sense by the minute. If he feels particularly grateful at this re-inclusion, odds of 60 are going to be pretty good.
Cue the Gravelanche!
Martin definitely has an uphill battle against Chambliss. Counting on Lieberman for the 60th vote is like counting on W to make a factual statement. Sure it may happen once or twice a year, but never on anything important.
60 seats is not a magic number! 60 votes on any particular issue is. There will likely be Democratic and Republican defections on any particular issue. I wish we could all quit thinking 60 senators in the caucus means every progressive piece of legislation will be passed because some people are going to be sorely disappointed in the months and years to come.
60 is just a number.
It's symbolic, but I doubt if the GOP caucus, even if it is 41 or 42 will operate in lockstep to block everything Obama tries to do. The GOP was a lot more powerful as a minority in the current Senate than they will be next year.
Here is something to snicker over: This morning on NPR they were reading the days news and said, "Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is celebrating today-- he turns 85." Somebody must have put that on the automated calendar last year.
Happy Birthday, Ted.
Please keep in mind that 60 Dems in the caucus is not what matters... its 60 votes on any given bill. Lieberman being in or out of the caucus would hopefully not change his vote on any given bill.
Secondly, even at 58, it should be particularly hard, most of the time, to find 2 moderate Republicans who - even if they don't support a bill - will not want to filibuster it.
Remember how hard it was for Democrats - even with 49 or 45 votes (including Jeffords) to filibuster a variety of measures - many times it could not be done.
Its not like 42 votes is going to cause many filibusters. Some perhaps, but its not a major difference between 58 and 60.
Lieberman will vote with Democrats on most issues. He always has and there's especially no reason to expect that to change now. We're much more likely to lose Pryor or Lincoln or Landrieu or Dorgan or maybe even Tester, than we are to lose Lieberman on any particular cloture vote.
Let's hope he's less crazy than Gravel!
Stevens may need that $15k for legal expenses. Wouldn't it be worth $15k for us to get the phrase "Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), convicted felon" in a few more news cycles? /mbw
Sarah Palin has 7,000,000 reasons to bankroll the recount.
"He always has and there's especially no reason to expect that to change now"
He is bitter, his candidate lost, he said the Dems getting 60 seats is "scary", and he knows there will be no consequences.
hard to believe any one here buys into that 60 magic number crap.
it is NOT going to happen
and does anyone think that martin has a prayer?
The Obama administration is laying the groundwork for establishing an unprecedented level of goodwill. Obama is smart enough to know that even with 58-60 Dem senators, he is going to need a substantial about of goodwill (which will translate into leeway from the public, not just lawmakers, to do what he wants) in order to be successful at being a transformational President (i.e. one whose impact is felt for many generations to follow). The last thing he wants is for a future administration to undo everything he has done out of spite.
Obama is indeed changing the tone in DC. With every decision he makes, he is making it harder and harder for the Repubs to block him on his agenda and harder for them to make standard partisan attacks without looking like sore losers. The more popular Obama is, the less popular are the Senators who try to block his legislative ideas and attack his agenda.
Look for the ratings of the hate mongers like Rush, Weiner, Hannity, etc to decline as people realize they are tired of their BS and are ready to do something that actually moves our country forward.
Looking forward to Begich's quixotic 2047 Presidential run.
One senate seat closer!
I kinda doubt we'll see GA. Terrified repubs are likely to turn out in droves for Chambliss.
livemild said...
hard to believe any one here buys into that 60 magic number crap.
it is NOT going to happen
and does anyone think that martin has a prayer?
Clearly the Republicans do, otherwise McCain and Zig Zag Zell wouldn't be stumping for him.
Chambliss that is.
Great news about Begich! However, the Georgia election is looking less good. Turnout is WAY down, barely 13,000 for the first day. African American turnout has fallen from 35% in the general election to 23% in the first day results. It's not all hopeless, polling does show Chambliss weakening somewhat among whites. But....with Martin 3 points behind in the general election, and African American turnout 12 points behind the general election, it is very hard for me to see how that gets made up.
Still 58/59 Dem senators ain't bad :)
Oh and here is the link to early voting stats in the GA senate race:
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08_runoff.htm
CNN has Norm Coleman's lead increasing to 215 after being at 206 earlier today.
Remind your Republican friends that these numbers have been going both ways throughout the canvasses in Minnesota.
WV/micregon. A small part of the essential nature of Oregon.
Sean, are you sure about the number left to count? The Alaska SOS results page shows the 2,374 difference you cite (146,286 to 143,912, 290,198 total). The ADN story you linked says "2,734" but also says that "The state has counted over 16,000 absentee and questioned ballots so far today...Election officials expect to count nearly 8000 more this afternoon." The previous count of 138,959 to 137,937 totaled 276,896, a difference of 13,302.
WV "mating"---another "no kidding!"---I'm a chess IM but I'll just let it pass.
@ syr93, don't forget that about 3% of the gneral electorate voted for the Libertarian. Presumbably, they're more inclined to vote for Chambliss. But, it's all about turnout. Obama needs to do some energizing among his base in GA.
FYI, the early vote was around 50k/day in GA during early voting, and around 180/190k/day during extended early voting when many more polling places were opened to early voting. 13K on first day is pretty pathetic :-/
and does anyone think that martin has a prayer?
He's been right around 17% at Intrade for the last few days, so I'd say better than a prayer, but still a decided underdog.
Secondly, even at 58, it should be particularly hard, most of the time, to find 2 moderate Republicans who - even if they don't support a bill - will not want to filibuster it.
I agree. But actually I think that in some cases, it might be harder to keep all 58-60 Democrats in line than it will be to lure a handful of GOP senators.
The Democrats have quite a few Senators from "Deep Red States." On issues like climate change and taxes, they'll tact to the right when necessary to protect their political viability in future elections. Headcounts matter in the House, but not so much in the Senate (obviously more is better, but it is not a guarantee of legislative success).
The key is to stay focused on the core issues that got Obama elected with over 2/3rds of the electoral college: economic stabilization, health care reform, and lessening dependence on foreign oil for energy. Everything else (particularly divisive social issues) is a peripheral issue that threatens Democratic solidarity, particularly in the Senate.
If Obama and his team are smart (and I think they are), the first time that he'll take on a major social issue will be when he appointments Justice Steven's replacement on the Supreme Court.
"Given his likely expulsion by either the Republican caucus or the U.S. Senate as a whole, it seems unlikely anyone besides Stevens himself would have the desire to pursue such action."
Voting for Stevens was never about getting Stevens into the Senate, it was about beating Begich. Everyone knew that Stevens would be expelled even if he won. The important part is that, should he win, he'll be expelled and then replaced by another Republican. Maybe by Sarah Palin.
"not a sum Stevens has ever had trouble acquiring via one means or another"
Good one, Sean. :P
Ah, possibly Sean's lead
"With 14,626 of the roughly 24,000 ballots left to count today..."
was meant to be parsed as
"With 14,626 ballots counted of the roughly 24,000 ballots that were left to count today..."
I.e. meaning to say that 24,000 - 14,626 were left to count. That squares fairly well with the numbers in the sources. The original sure sounded like it was saying that 14,000-odd were left to count today.
More presidential votes have been coming in from Alaska and California. Latest results:
Obama - 66,947,158 votes (52.72%)
McCain - 58,379,944 votes (45.98%)
Others - 1,650,689 votes (1.30%)
TOTAL - 126,977,791 votes
Obama lead - 8,567,214 votes (6.75%)
MISSOURI:
Latest McCain lead - 4,346 votes
Naturally, the perfect replacement for Justice Stevens would be...Justice (Ted) Stevens! He's in need of a job, and he's three years younger.
Andy where did you see the latest total voting stats?
Naturally, the perfect replacement for Justice Stevens would be...Justice (Ted) Stevens! He's in need of a job, and he's three years younger.
And we wouldn't have to pay for a new nameplate on his SCOTUS office door.
KWRegan said ...
Ah, possibly Sean's lead
"With 14,626 of the roughly 24,000 ballots left to count today..."
was meant to be parsed as
"With 14,626 ballots counted of the roughly 24,000 ballots that were left to count today..."
I.e. meaning to say that 24,000 - 14,626 were left to count. That squares fairly well with the numbers in the sources. The original sure sounded like it was saying that 14,000-odd were left to count today.
That's how I read it (14,626 have been counted, 24,000 - 14,626 = 9,374 left to count). It's not spelled out as clearly as your rephrasing, but that's definitely what Sean meant.
[WV] persi. adj. 1. Requiring significant parsing to be read accurately. Sean's lead was a very persi sentence.
syr93:
I got the figures from the Daily Kos election map. (BBC News also has these latest figures, so they're correct). Unfortunately, CNN and CBS news seem to have stopped updating their figures. Fox News stopped updating their numbers a few days ago. I know Daily Kos's figures are correct because, (in addition to BBC News), the new figures they give for Alaska are in accordance with the Alaska Secretary of State elections website. These are the links:
http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7697829.stm
Just watched Nate on The Newshour discussing the outstanding senate races. He needs to relax more on camera. He had a little bit of the deer in the headlights look about him tonight.
The Kansas City Star thinks McCain has locked up Missouri.
With less than 4,000 votes still to count, Senator Obama is down about 4,500 votes. While the ballots still to count are from St. Louis County and City and Jackson County, you can't make 4,000 > 4,500 by any legitimate means (cough, cough, Chicago legacy, cough cough :))
WV-goust. A fight to the death at apparition gatherings.
All this talk about filibuster-proof majority is premature. I really wouldn't expect Obama to overtly sponsor any legislation that requires a veto-proof majority. Obama wants bipartisan support on everything, even if he doesn't need it, because it makes it harder for the GOP to attack him.
Thanks Andy! CBS needs to get off their butt and update ;)
Universal health care might be a policy where 60 Senators might come in useful for Obama.
Do Senate committee chairmen serve a set term, or can they be replaced at any time by the majority leader?
If Dean can kick Lieberman out of the Homeland Security Committee Chair at any time, then letting him keep it makes a lot of sense. If Dean kicks him out now, he gets a nice feeling of satisfaction now, but going forward, Joe's a free agent and the Dems have no control over him. But as long as Joe has something he really wants that Dean can take away, Joe has to toe the line.
"Hey Joe, How are things going on your Homeland Security Committee? I know chairing it is really important to you. Oh, by the way, we really need your support on this bill coming up for vote today. We can count on you, right?"
New Figures are up at the Alaska Elections site and Senator Elect Mark Begich has increased his lead to almost 3700 votes.
Updated results
STILL 3724!
Begich up as of new update at 4:18 Alaska time!
WOOHOO!
ER ... BEGICH UP STILL!
Now
3724!
WOO HOO!
AP just called the election for Begich.
Anyone still watching www.electoral-vote.com? Andy had an interesting rundown on Senate seats up in 2010. And the Dems are in remarkabley good shape, with only one seat really threatened. It's not outside the realm of possibility that we could wind up with 65-66 seats in the Senate come 2011. That WOULD be fillibuster proof!!
It took a little while longer than most, but way to call Alaska Nate - 100% for Begich came true. Think any of the trolls from before who gave you a hard time on the early returns will show up now to apologize?
YES! No felons in the Senate!
What a great victory for Begich!
Congratulations!
You won and Stevens/Palin lost.
Wow.
Nice to see Uncle Ted get put out to pasture. But I think the happiest, or at least most relieved, people are the Republicans in the Senate who now don't have to worry about voting for his expulsion.
As for Christopher's post about the 2010 Senate elections, a lot can happen between now and then. A lot of Dems who seemingly had no business losing lost to Republicans in 1994, and a lot of heavily favored Repubs lost to Dems in 2006 and this year. In addition to the usual few unexpected retirement/not running again decisions, how Obama and the new Congress does the next two years will play a big role in the 2010 elections.
If he and the new Congress actually get positive things done and don't try to rub the Repubs' face in it, maybe they'll pick up another few seats, though 65 or 66 seems far-fetched (has one party ever had that big of a majority in the Senate?).
But if Obama, Pelosi, Reid and Co. overplay their hand and make the same mistakes the Dems made from '92-'94 and the Repubs from '94-'06, that big Dem majority could be gone quickly.
notafelon said: YES! No felons in the Senate!
That have been charged...
Sorry about the ambiguity on 14,626... yes I meant counted. Bad grammar. My only defense is I was on the phone with Nate making sure we could "call" it, and he'd just gotten off the phone with Ziegler and I was laughing and distracted. Corrected even though it's moot now.
syr93,
You are right that turnout is down and that the low African American numbers are rather ominous for Martin on the surface.
However, keep in mind that not all counties have begun early voting yet. Fulton County (Atlanta area) won't start until tomorrow and the Secretary of State's office in Georgia has said that not all counties will have early voting; only advance voting. And advance voting is only the three days prior to Thanksgiving next week.
That's a bit of a double-edged sword for Martin. On the one hand, some of his areas may not have started early voting yet. But on the other, they really have a limited amount of time for early voting.
You can read more about it at Frontloading HQ.
Keith said...
If Dean can kick Lieberman out . . .
and
If Dean kicks him out now . . .
and
But as long as Joe has something he really wants that Dean can take away . . .
Who is this 'Dean' you keep referencing?
King Politics said...
All this talk about filibuster-proof majority is premature. I really wouldn't expect Obama to overtly sponsor any legislation that requires a veto-proof majority.
I'm puzzling over why President Obama would need a veto-proof majority. As Mr. Spock would say "That does not compute."
I agree with the Daily News that a recount is likely. Stevens could certainly raise $15,000 from his supporters, or an "independent" group of "concerned voters" will bankroll it. The smart thing for Stevens to do, however, is to take his $122K/year pension and split.
(I would say "...and leave gracefully," but that's not his style. My money says that Stevens' parting words will be mean-spirited and divisive, accusing Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi of rigging his trial, and referring to his loss as "a tragic moment in the history of Alaska.")
Anyway... Begich's biggest concern now is making an impact in his first term. Stevens built up his list of achievements over 44 years, but if Begich doesn't do something big within the next six, the AK GOP will paint him as a failure, and this state will go right back into the red.
Mike in Maryland said:
[I'm puzzling over why President Obama would need a veto-proof majority.]
In case he wanted to do something really crazy, like stop torturing people.
Mike in MD
"Dean" is Harry Reid's new name. Howard Dean will be called "Bayh". It's all done to free up extra names for the Udalls. (Their last name is a bastardized version of mine, so I'm issuing an edict that they be known as Mark Reid and Tom Reid.)
Aaron:
Mike's pont is that since Obama will be the one who decides what (if anything) to veto (probably nothing since his party controls both houses), it would be odd if HE needed a veto-proof majority. Filibustering is a minority-party tactic; overriding vetoes is what big-majority congressional parties do to opposing presidents. I suspect you didn't mean "veto-proof."
Peace!
Dave Yandell
I voted for Gravel in the WA State "beauty contest" primary. He was my sentimental favorite. He had the best lines in any of the debates when he said:
We have no important enemies. What we need to do is to begin to deal with the rest of the world as equals. And we don't do that. We spend more as a nation on defense than all the rest of the world put together. Who are we afraid of? Iraq has never been a threat to us. We invaded them. The military industrial complex not only controls our government, lock, stock and barrel, but they control our culture.
Nate, congrats again. You called this days ago. I now have faith that Franken will pull this out. The Georgia seat is getting VERY interesting. I think it could go either way. Definitely a GOTV campaign.
I love seeing you getting TV time on Hardball and Countdown. Keep the glasses. You need to stand out.
Actually, I believe 60 is a possible number. Given the beaucoup number of votes in Minnesota, it would take a correction rate of under/over votes that is in the mere tenths of a percent and such corrections have a slight tilt in favor of Franken.
And if Al Gore is coming to Georgia, then obviously Jim Martin has some form of chance that is significantly greater than infinitesimal. I really doubt Al Gore would waste prime speaking time for global climate change for a Senate candidate if the candidate has no hope.
I actually believe that Chambliss has pissed off a lot of people with his negative ads. Not to mention the reason "sugar controversy" that Chambliss doesn't seem to want to speak on. Add the fact that Chambliss doesn't like Vietnam war veterans for some reason, and we might be in for a surprise here.
Plus, if Georgians are smart enough, they might want to ditch Chambliss, because otherwise, if Martin comes to 48 or 49 percent, Isakson (who's done nothing "wrong" and is far less caustic than Saxby) better start praying, because I imagine that Democrats would be more pissed and fired up rather than depressed and out of it.
I will say this though: Saxby does have the slight inherent advantage, but in the end, Jim Martin stands the most to gain.
My roommate left a comfortable existence here in "fake America" to go work field on this race.
Tonight, there is much rejoicing.
Woo! I wrote in Gravel for president. I was sad to see that he lost...
Sean:
A recount actually costs about $200,000.00...the $15,000.00 is just the required deposit.
Nice job, by the way :D
Linda Kellen Biegel
Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis
Make that Democratic Sentator, not Democrat senator. There is no such thing as the Democrat party. thankyoudrivethru
Topbunk Teddy is a big fat loser and Al Franken is just what the Senate needs, at least from a stand-up stand point. See "To What Comes America"
http://michaeljamesh.blogspot.com/2008/11/to-what-comes-america.html
for a comic take on both races.
Ahhhh, Alaskan voters in this election perfectly exemplify the contradictions found in the modern American voter. After all, aren't they all a bunch of hardscrabble, rugged individualists who went to Alaska to get away from government and regulation? To go to a place where you had to survive on your skill, determination, and work ethic alone? So these people almost returned a convicted felon to the US Senate due in large part to his demonstrated ability to continuously bring home the bacon. That's rugged individualism for you at it's American finest! I'll bet many Alaskans are quaking now because the next time they want a road, or a new school, or sewage treatment, or yes, even a bridge they might have to do what the rest of us do down here, they might have to tax themselves to pay for it! Oh the horror! Heck, if the rest of us get wise to how we've been subsidizing these so-called "pioneers" for all these years we might actually decide to stop spending a dispproportionate share of the taxpayers money on such a tiny part of the population and let them see what really being on their own is like. Heck, they might even have to start giving back those checks the state gives 'em from the oil profits. I think it might be tough for some to adjust doncha know.
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