The Alaska Board of Elections has finally updated (pdf). With 17,728 votes counted since the previous update, Democrat Mark Begich has the lead over Republican Ted Stevens, 132,196 to 131,382.
More votes to be counted tomorrow and possibly Friday.
As we've pointed out and has been pointed out elsewhere, the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts. Mark Begich is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Alaska Senate seat.
11.13.2008
Begich Leads By 814 Going Into Thursday
@ 12:14 AM
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Faster than a speeding bullet, Sean's got the scoop on fivethirtyeight before fark or dkos.
This is great news... FOR TED STEVENS!!!
Good news. Thanks for the update. Your website is monitoring center!
Sedi, you're not implying that Stevens has the power to fix the election, are you?
Nate:
Isn't it time to change your page? When are you going to get rid of all the election data? I'd like to see you implement a brand new fancy design. :)
Sedi:
Yes......
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/12/11522/592/209/659818
The remaining votes are from Begich-friendly districts.
This one is in the bag for the Dems. No Palin Senatorial seat!
Every Democratic and Republican Senator should be rallying behind Begich right now. Can you imagine having to listen to Palin daily on the Senate floor if she actually got the Senate seat for AK.
I would rather pour hot coals down my pants.
Isn't it time to change your page? When are you going to get rid of all the election data? I'd like to see you implement a brand new fancy design. :)
I agree...at least the polls, tipping point states, investment index, and scenario analysis.
58 Senate seats looks assured. There's probably a 50/50 chance at 59 (what I predicted the night before). Maybe a 10% at 60?
I say keep most of the election data around...Or at least add a collapse/expand function, and set it to collapsed at default.
Nate's model performed very well, and projections are the focus of this site...The 08 results should be prominent until the 2010 races take center stage.
Please Ted keep going. I believe Ted Stevens is innocent. I hope for the sake of our country the Democrats don't get 60 seats. No party should have that power. It's harmful to our republic when whatever one party wants happens.
@James:
In many respects I agree that dominant one-party power isn't a good thing. But please, root for Coleman, or if you REALLY have to, Chambliss. Ted Stevens is a convicted felon and deserves to be in jail for corruption.
I think Republicans are going through withdrawal from not having complete power. Weren't McConnell and Kyl threatening to filibuster Obama's agenda? lol
Republicans are ignorant. All but a scarce few moderates all want it their way or the highway. Democrats are willing to compromise, that's why the Congress approval rating is so much lower than Bush's. Dems can admit when their party is doing a bad job, republicans can't.
But in hindsight, I kind of regret who we have taken out this election. I'd much rather have Liddy Dole and Smith around then Chambliss, McConnell and possibly Stevens. Our only great accomplishment this time was ousting Sununu, a fake "moderate".
This is huge. It would be great fun to have Sarah in DC, but maybe she can run for Don Young's seat when he finally gets indicted.
58 does seem solid now, and MN is about 50-50 at making 59. It's going to be interesting to see how much money the democrats are going to put in the GA run off if they get 59 seats. Also how hard Obama would campaign in GA for the 60th seat.
James:
Do you believe he's innocent because you're afraid of a Democratically controlled congress?
And anyway, if he's voted out, his past won't matter much. Where he stays, prison or not, is all that it decides.
And last I checked, this was a republic, where the people determine who holds the power by voting.
And you're right. For 6 of the last 8 years, one party did keep getting what it wanted, and Karl Rove was trying for a permanent Republican majority.
And look where we are today! Our republic did suffer. And so the obvious solution is to...
make it so that all bills have to include porkbarrel spending and cripple their intent in order to appease those who made our republic a mess?
Were you complaining when the Republicans pretty much shoved the Democrats out of everything, even refusing to give them space to hold committee meetings?
Or are you just a conservative who believes the GOP does no wrong?
Until Stevens' appeal fails, I'm still rooting for him. If the appeal should fail, I would want him ejected from the Senate and would root for Begich. I honestly hope that Coleman and Chambliss pull it off and I realize that Stevens is a felon, but if he loses the election and he wins his appeal, then I think America will be worse off for having lost a great Senator
Apparently Obama is not campaigning in GA because it will hurt his "reputation" if Martin loses. I think that's incredibly childish, and if it's true, I will already lose a lot of respect for him. Who cares if it diminishes your "glow"?
Vinny - We also got rid of Pete Domenici thanks to the US Attorney scandal. And Chambliss and Coleman are still not home free.
Vinny,
Agreed. Chambliss and McConnell would have been nice to take out - I'm hoping it will still happen. Coleman definitely would be nicer to beat than Smith - they're both moderates but Smith seems like a nice guy and Coleman is a jerk.
But Dole - glad to have her out. She's not a Jim Inhofe, but she's no Gordon Smith either.
No I believe that Republicans have made many mistakes, and I don't so much mind a Democratic majority as long as it's not 60 in the Senate. This, as everyone knows, is a filibuster-proof majority so no matter what the minority thinks, the majority can pass bills without their opinion. This is not good. The minority should always have a voice
I am happy that Obama's hand is being strengthened in congress.
The fact that he lobbied for not kicking Lieberman out shows how incredibly pragmatic he is. He just wants results and easily overrules his emotional impulses.
With 58 or 59 senators on his side and the wide popular support he received in the election, it will be practically impossible for the fractured GOP to unify as spoilers even with 41 or 42 seats.
I hope Obama does a great job. We sure need it!
Nate, on the off-chance that you're actually reading this thread and wracking your brain for what to do with the electoral projections, why not some graphics about how well your projections did?
I'd like to see how the actual vote margins came out state-by-state. I don't think there's anything wrong with tooting your own horn a bit. Let's get some stats on just how awesome 538 is!
Vinny:
Obama also has a lot of work to do from day one. He doesn't NEED to have a democratic majority to do his job, he needs to have information and good staff and his cabinet selected.
His organizers and volunteers are going to descend on GA with a huge amount of money, experience, and close ties, while the GOP trots out every potential presidential hopeful they have.
It doesn't benefit Obama to go to GA. His brand will be there, no question, his name will be dropped by both sides. Possibly positively, comparing the candidates to him, as the 'Maverick' label doesn't seem to stick.
At this point, the GOP's not going to want to rely on just the base, so they'll have to play towards the center and hope the base is still excited by McCain, Palin, Jindal, etc. Well... Maybe not McCain.
I also hope Obama does well. I pray for him every night even though I was a McCain supporter. This country needs to recover
The Clintons can campaign in GA. That could be better than having Obama campaign there.
Stevens is out of the Senate weather he wins or loses the race, even is own party said they would boot him out. Stevens is done.
If Coleman wins he is facing his own pretty hairy ethics investigation, so depending on how things shake out he could be done for no matter how the MN recount goes.
And, honestly, I am not sure why anyone would want Chambliss around. The fellow got his seat int he first place by pretty slime-tastic methods, I wouldn't turn my back on Chambliss in a dark ally.
So, really out of these three people, you want one of these people to hold the line? A convicted felon, a suspected felon and a fella who McCain soundly criticized in his 2002 race? Talk about foxes and hen-houses blech.
obsessed said...
This is huge. It would be great fun to have Sarah in DC, but maybe she can run for Don Young's seat when he finally gets indicted.
Not if she wants to run for president in 2012. The last time a member of the House was elected was in 1880 although a few like Gephardt, Mo Udall and Kucinich have tried.
James:
Okay, then. Glad to hear it.
But the people will have their way. I'd be fine with 58 or 59 democrats, but if there is an overriding majority, I think they'll behave, and have grandstanders cross the aisles to establish a record for themselves in future elections.
When the democrats got smashed in 2000, they wised up quite a bit. The republicans will need to do the same, once the fingerpointing is done.
60 is no magic number unless BOTH parties are totally in step on a bill. This basically never happens. The moderates or others from both parties will easily jump based upon what the bill actually has.
If McCain campaigns in GA for Chambliss, just have Max Cleland follow him around to remind McCain of his criticism of Chambliss' slimy campaign ads in 2002.
Thanks Nate.
It's looking good, but nothing is certain until it's official. The Repubs have a limited number of battlegrounds left and they have demonstrated that they will do anything to win.
Anyone know the recount rules in Alaska?
wv: coness - Stevens future title.
Has the AK-AL race narrowed? I remember the polls being way off for the Democrat in that one too.
So let's look at GA...
Chambliss has McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and maybe even Palin.
We have....nobody.
Yeah guys, what a great way to win a race. Especially in a state McCain won. Where is Carter? Obama? Hillary? Bill?
Have to admit, I love seeing the election data every time I come on the site. I'm just not ready to move on from the electric joy, I guess. Please keep it around in some form! Although I would like to see the actual vote counts, as someone else suggested.
wv prestisto And prestisto change-o we have a constitutionally inclined government again!
By the way, Lieberman has been giving campaign contributions to Democratic candidates for the Senate. He can make expiation for his sins during the presidential campaign by (1) giving money to Martin in GA or
(2) campaigning for Martin in GA.
How 'bout it Joe?
All this obsession with 60 Senators is stupid. Party cohesion in the Senate is awful for both parties. You will have moderate Rep Senators break on certain issues and conservative Dem Senators break on certain issues.
@James and all who bemoan a Democratic presidency and Congress
"I hope for the sake of our country the Democrats don't get 60 seats. No party should have that power."
You can take solace in the fact that the Supreme Court remains in Republican control. And that's the branch with the greatest long-term influence.
I haven't seen anybody mention this, but it needs to be stated repeatedly as part of this discussion.
I'm willing to forgive Lieberman, but only because the guy on Rachel Maddow assured us that they can kick him off the chairmanship at any time if he turns into a douchenozzle.
If he does ANYTHING funny, oust him immediately.
Considering that most of the GOP moderates (Coleman included) will have been driven out of Congress, there may be more unity among the remaining ones than one would normally expect. They've demonstrated before that they can filibuster when in the minority.
I don't care what anyone says, I really want an Alaska win after this whole Palin fiasco. Give me some faith Alaska that you totally haven't gone off the deep end.
Still hoping Franken pulls it off as well, but not getting up my hopes up in Georgia.
This hasn't really been brought up, but...is there any chance Snowe or Specter might switch parties? Or is it just Democrats are are unloyal? It seems like Democrats only switch to the Republicans, and not vice versa.
@ james, I wouldn't worry about the Democrats getting 60 seats because even if that happens, there's no way they'll maintain party discipline and all 60 push extreme liberal legislation. Too many of the Democrats are from red states. They'll generally follow Obama's lead on issues he campaigned upon, but I can't imagine all of them going to the far left.
The Repubs don't switch parties, for some reason, they cling to that R like their lives depend on it. I wouldn't be surprised if Snowe and Specter haven't already been approached about switching parties, particularly since they are both from states that went overwhelmingly for Obama. They could dangle some pretty sweet Committee chair positions to sweeten the deal.
Of course, they don't have to switch parties to vote with the Dems. The Repub party has no power over these two, so they don't have to fear "bucking the will of the party" by voting their consciences. If anything, the Repub party needs THEM, not the other way around.
It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. I know I'm not a good enough chess player (actually, I can't play chess at all) to write the script for it.
I guess the Thrilla from Wasilla won't be heading to the U.S. Senate then. Hopefully now she will slide back into obscurity.
I'm the nth person to say this, but 60 is not a big deatl 58 or 59 is actually ideal for us Democrats because it pushes us to work hard in 2010 and prevents us somewhat from completely overreaching.
The more time Palin spends on the national scene, the better it is for D's.
@ vinny, I'm skeptical Dems would strip Lieberman of his chairmanship if they do not do it now. Of course, they technically could. But, if his actions during the campaign are not enough to punish him, then what could he possibly do that would cause Democrats to act?
Bush is in a passive stance, doing nothing himself and letting the country (and the world) go to hell financially. Obama tried to get him to get off his butt and help save the country but Bush just hides in the White House and pouts. By the time we reach Obama's inauguration, the situation could be disastrous. Every senate seat that goes to the Dems means that much more leverage that Obama has to pry us out of this mess.
Specter especially seems to be in trouble for his re-election bid. I wonder what would happen if he changed his party affiliation...no doubt he would drop his flimsy republican support, but he'd also get most of the Democrat support. Strategically, it seems like a good move for him.
Snowe can do whatever she wants. She could change her party to Communist and still get re-elected without even trying. They love her in Maine.
@ vinny, I'm skeptical Dems would strip Lieberman of his chairmanship if they do not do it now. Of course, they technically could. But, if his actions during the campaign are not enough to punish him, then what could he possibly do that would cause Democrats to act?
It's about what his chairmanship actually DOES. It oversees the executive branch from what I understand. So if he started using his power to make problems for Obama, they could oust him immediately.
Also, I'd like to hear back from all the folks who badmouthed Nate on Nov. 5.
You know who you are. When the early returns gave Stevens (R-Leavenworth) the early lead, you posted numerous times, disparaging the model and its creator.
Please understand. The model is not to be questioned. Worshipped, yes. Questioned? Burn them at the stake!!!!!!!!!! BURN THEM!!!!!!!!!!
It's about what his chairmanship actually DOES. It oversees the executive branch from what I understand. So if he started using his power to make problems for Obama, they could oust him immediately.
What a PR nightmare that would be!Democrats are afraid to strip Lieberman of his chairmanship now for fear of being seen as too partisan. Imagine how much worse a move it would be for them to strip Lieberman for holding hearins on some Obama administration scandal. It would look absolutely terrible for the Democrats no matter how much they protest that Lieberman is just on a witch hunt.
Begich is now my favorite senator-elect for ending all this Sen. Palin drama.
OK, found my meds.
Keeping Lieberman in the fold is brilliant. He is at the D's mercy as long as he is allowed to caucus with them, i.e., at the first sign of funny business from him, they can kick him out, so he has incentive to behave.
Obama has better things to do, honestly, than spend 3 days in Georgia. Maybe you've noticed he's already trying to reconcile the runaway executive branch with the Constitution.
James,
Did you feel the same way about minorities needing a say when civil liberties were being thrashed by W and the pubs? When they were ramrodding ill-conceived legislation and agendas down the American public's throat? I don't think so. Saying that losing Ted Stevens as a great Senator after all he's done (if convicted) is as irresponsible as McCain was in the vetting process by giving Palin one interview. One interview for VP? Are you kidding me? That and the minute she opened her mouth and started her bulldog tirade showed everyone that Karl Rove was alive and well. He just had a new puppet to pull the strings with. In this case it is/was a very pretty but severely over matched and inexperienced one. She had no opinion that wasn't given to her by the zealots of your party. I'm praying for Obama and for you every night my friend.
Frankly, I think Holy Joe and Specter should form their own party. Both of them are absolutely shameless and utterly clueless. Specter always talked a good game in Judiciary and then utterly and completely caved in to his Republican puppet masters. They deserve each other.
Yes, Lieberman is now a puppet.
Watch for him to "vote his conscience" when it doesn't matter, and vote as he's told any time it does matter.
I'm also predicting that an R will jump ship, sometime next year, making Joe's votes superfluous. It can't have been lost on all three dozen plus of them that their brand is on the remainder shelf. Maybe they'll end up bidding, and the winner settle for membership on some committee, any committee. It's dashed hard to swing bribes without a committee membership.
Not to mention Lieberman has virtually no chance of getting re-elected in 2012...unless the people of Connecticut are as loyal to their senators as Alaskans are.
@ another mike:
I think we are confusing "cloture" with actually voting to support a bill. The more moderate/conservative Dems from red states can vote for cloture and then vote against the bill. So you don't need 60 Dems who are specifically for a liberal agenda in order for bills to move forward and get legislation passed.
By voting FOR cloture, they can make the party leaders happy. Then, they can vote against the bill (assuming a tally has been done to make sure the bill will still pass) and go back to their constituents and tell them that they took the high road and opposed this liberal bill or that liberal bill, but did not clog up the Senate by filibustering. With 58 or 59 Dems in the Senate, we can afford to "allow" 7 or 8 Dems to vote against a bill, as long as they agree to vote for cloture. The margin of no votes is even larger if Repubs such as Specter and Snowe are planning to vote for a bill. And I think given Biden's close relationship with Specter and the fact that Specter is up for re-election in 2010 (in a state that went overwhelmingly for Obama), we might just find quite an ally in Specter.
Begich Leads By 814 Going Into Thursday
*************
wow!
balls explode!
:)
James: You and millions of others must have prayed your little hearts out for McCain, and even more for Palin. Lately you've been praying they won't find enough votes for Begich to win. See how much effect all your prayers have had?
God manifestly disagrees with you. It's time to stop and figure out why you are on the side opposite God, and whether you really want to stay there.
This is great news...for Cat Stevens!
Nate, I say leave the charts up--it gives me an ear-to-ear grin every time I see them. Thanks!
Jim Jeffords (Vermont) switched from R to D in 2001 after he was pissed off about how they treated the Americans with Disabilities Act. This was a really big deal since it switched the Senate from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Dem's favor. A lot of Repubs blamed Bush for screwing up. If the far right take control of the GOP and take a very extreme view on reproductive rights, I wouldn't count on Snowe or Collins staying, particularly since the Northeast has gone almost completely democratic.
there's one thing that I as a foreigner don't get yet:
if you have 100 senators,isn't enough to have 51 senators on your side in order to pass laws and bills ?
Sorry,just curious...
:)
An amusing but probably pointless anecdote.
Veco, the company that lent it's contract workers to remodel Stevens' home is located right across the street from my favorite coffee shop, here in Bellingham, WA. The headquarters, as far as I can tell. So, now I think of Alaska every time I have a cup.
The employees there also favor the coffee shop, because, honestly, it's the best coffee anywhere.
I hope Begich and Franken pull out wins. I'm not as optimistic about Georgia. Obama isn't campaigning because he's afraid to lose, he's not campaigning there because it cuts into his effort to be bipartisan.
There's no doubt in my mind that they could use Obama's listserv to get volunteers and money though. If people were willing to make calls for Obama throughout the US, maybe they will do the same to get people to the polls in Georgia. That is what they should do.
@matador
the 60 majority number is important to protect a filibuster. a filibuster is when a party (usually the minority) blocks a bill from coming either out of committee or going to vote by the general senate. it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster.
so it is a stalling tactic that can work indefinitely.
hope it helps...
Yes, you need 51 senators (or a plurality if there are 2 independents, as there are now) to control the Senate. However, you need 60 to cut off a filibuster. Of course, the Democrats were generally too chicken to filibuster anything when they were in a position too, and the mere threat of a Republican filibuster is enough to make Harry Reid faint, hence the now conventional wisdom that the Dems 'need' 60 seats to REALLY control things. What they actually need is a whip worthy of the job who will get the more conservative members of the caucus (the Brothers Nelson, Dim Bulb Pryor, Bayh, etc.) to toe the line when it counts. Right now the whip is Dick Durbin, who is a reliably lefty vote but a very poor whip.
matador,
The problem is to bring things up for a floor vote, you need 60 senators. Therefore if you have 41 that choose to block the vote even happening, it can completely stiffle legislation. That is why the number 60 is so important.
I hope I explained that correctly.
Don't want to start a Nate vs. Sean war, but I have a lot more faith in Nate's predictions. So I think I'll wait til things are in the bag before I believe the Begich win or until Nate confirms Sean's view on this.
matador,
In the USA Senate's crazy rules, discussion on a bill stays open until there is a vote for cloture. In order for cloture (meaning the *real* vote on the bill) to occur, at least 60 Senators must vote to end discussion and start voting. Therefore, as long as one Senator is willing to keep talking (filibuster), and at least 39 other Senators agree to let the talking continue, then they can never vote on the bill.
It is true, that to PASS the bill, it only needs 51 votes. But in order to have the opportunity to vote on the bill, they need 60 Senators to agree to end discussion and have a vote.
That's why the Dems have been unable to get anything done these past 2 years, because Republicans have filibustered (or threatened to filibuster) over 170 different bills. Meaning that they can't bring anything to a vote.
Make sense?
I, for one, would love to see Harry Reid make the Repubs actually filibuster some of these bills. Let the country see just how foolish and how obstructionist they can be, particularly on bills that have bi-partisan support.
The Dems need a new majority leader.
Anyone expecting Obama to campaign in person right now is severely challenged.
Let's see.. he just got off being on the campaign trail after going full tilt for 22 months.
Not to mention he has 60 days to put together the most powerful team of the planet.
On top of that he is trying to heal partisan divides..
Only someone from redstate would mock him for cowardice at not going to GA. Anyways.. this is what minions are for!!
wv: reepe :)
thanks for the explanations guys,
now it's clear.
:)
Excellent explanation mcclever.
To take it a step further, any time the Repubs have threatened to filibuster or a vote was taken to invoke cloture and a bill did not get the 60 votes needed, instead of making the Repubs continue debate on the bill, Reid would pull the bill from the floor, in effect killing the bill and allowing the Repubs to succeed in stopping a bill without actually having to continue debate on it.
Essentially, Reid threw up his hands and said "gosh darn it, these Republicans won't let us vote on anything. What else can I do?" every time the Repubs blocked a bill.
Absolutely. Even the whisper of a Republican filibuster seems to make Reid reach for the smelling salts. Call the troglodytes' bluff! Let them filibuster their little hearts out. Obstructionism didn't work for Gingrich; it's not going to work for McConnell.
PeixeGato,
Indeed. I'd have liked to see Reid keep the bill on the floor for 48 hours. Make 'em talk themselves hoarse...
He's right that they wouldn't have been able to get anything passed either way, but it would have made for good political theater, and would have been more convincing to the public in general as to who were the "do nothings" and "obstructionists" in congress.
Man I am posting alot tonight... but I too what to call out the people who were discrediting Nate's models... particularly OR, LA, and AK. Looks like he will be vindicated.. and MN being so close.. wow.
Any Oregonian knew Smith was going down rather easily, because Multnomah county ALWAYS takes 3 days to count.. so when it is too close to call on election night, we DEM's had it in the bag. For those who don't know, Multnomah county is quickly turning into one of the most liberal counties in the country.. when Obama campaigned here last summer.. 70,000+ came out for him, the biggest crowd he had to date (and before the convention). yes - I was proud to be one of the ants on the hill.
RE Jeffords:
He left the GOP and became an independent. THis changed the Senate make-up from 50-50 to 50 D, 49 R, 1 I.
kurt,
I also agree that Nate's model keeps looking better and better...
I assume he's waiting until all of the election results are finalized to do his analysis on how accurate the model was. In some of the contests, where the result is obvious and additional votes are unlikely to significantly alter the outcome, we may feel impatient. But it's the close contests where accuracy matters most, and those are the ones where the counting (and recounting) is still going on.
So, I'm patient. I'll wait to see the full analysis in December.
For now, my thumbnail sketch says that the predictions were remarkably accurate in the Presidential race. 15 states were within 1% of Nate's prediction, 18 states were within 3% (including Indiana), and another 10 or so appear to be close to the stated margin of error. The remaining 7 or 8 included most of the "big" margins, such as DC, HI, VT, AK which are understandably hard to predict the exact margin. The notable "misses" (besides Indiana, which was still within the margin of error) were ND and NV, where the margin for the victor was significantly higher than expected. ND should have been close, but McCain won by almost 9 points. NV was supposed to be only about a 5 point win, but Obama won by over 12.
Of course, I eagerly await Nate's in depth analysis of the results... Including a breakdown of where and why the model may have had the most trouble getting the right predictions.
And I keep reminding myself to be patient!
:-)
How much of a lead does Begich need to avoid a recount? I know it's .5%, but how many votes is that? 1000? 2000? I'm too lazy to figure it out, especially with all the third party candidates in the mix for the vote totals.
@Nathan (who responded to James): "God manifestly disagrees with you. It's time to stop and figure out why you are on the side opposite God, and whether you really want to stay there.
I would say give James a break. I've read all his comments, and all he wants is to avoid a Democratic Party with 60 votes in the Senate. Even though I voted mostly Democratic this election cycle, I don't entirely disagree with him. I was even a little nervous about that possibility happening since it would give us Democrats too big of an ego. If we need to fight for the next two years to save this country, so be it.
I should say I voted for Al Franken, and I hope he wins, too, but it's not as likely as a Ted Stevens loss, however. I won't cry too much, though. There are too many good things politically speaking going on right now to force me to be unhappy about that eventuality.
And yes, I am pissed that Bachmann won her House race.
Also, about the prayer thing, it should be noted that Obama prays too, and I am sure he would welcome James's prayers under any circumstance.
/lives in Minnesota, obviously
Indeed. I'd have liked to see Reid keep the bill on the floor for 48 hours. Make 'em talk themselves hoarse...
Heh...
you do know that they don't ACTUALLY have to talk, right?
about the importance to have 60 seats in the senate,I found this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
One-Party Rule is Popular
Toward the end of the campaign, when Republicans saw that Barack Obama was going to win, they began running ads saying effectively:
"We need to elect Republicans to the Senate to prevent one-party rule."
Turns out that wasn't a good strategy.
A new CNN poll shows that 59% of the people think one-party rule will be a good thing and 38% think it will be a bad thing.
In addition, the poll showed the favorable/unfavorable ratings of the Democrats at 62%/31% whereas for the Republicans it is 38%/54%. In other words, people have no problem with one-party rule provided that the party is the Democratic Party.
http://us.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/11/one.party.poll/index.html
I think it's far more likely that we will get to 60 by having Snowe or Specter resign their seat and allow a D gov to appoint a new D senator than by winning both Minn and GA. I certainly believe that's more likely than Snowe or Specter just switching parties.
This is great news... FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!
Wv: pronst. Stevens is in a very pronst position.
Other prominent Democrats who could stump Georgia for Martin (aside from the Clintons) would be Sam Nunn, Andrew Young, Al Gore and Harold Ford, Jr. of TN.
Total votes so far in AK = 278,245
So, .5% is about 1400.
Then add on the remaining
35,000(?) to be counted and .5 of that is 175.
Total 1400 + 175 = 1575
Any margin of victory over that and there is no recount.
If that's off let us know.
James said (way back when this was first posted): "Until Stevens' appeal fails, I'm still rooting for him."
I remember how, not too many years ago, the Republican party fought tooth and nail to prevent people facing the death penalty from having full access to the courts for appeals. Never mind that a number of people were found to be innocent upon appeal, and never mind that the punishment in those cases was just a tad worse than losing a Senate seat, appeals were way to good for them. Stevens on the other hand clearly deserves the right to appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court. Hell, let him appeal to the World Court if he has to! Hey, maybe the UN will hear the case!
Funny how peoples opinions on these issues seem to change depending on which side of the issue they are on...
another thing regarding a potential AK recount: It's only automatic if it's an exact tie. If not, then either the defeated candidate or any group of ten citizens can request it, so long as they pony up $10000 for a statewide election. If the candidate who appeared to have lost is shown to have won by the recount, the $10k is refunded, otherwise, tough luck.
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Recount_laws_in_Alaska
btw, this link proves that wiki's are prone to mistakes - it references Alabama in one of the headers.
Don Young is leading the Alaskan House race 50-45 at the moment. It looks like that race could end up being uncomfortably close for the GOP.
So far, Begich has picked up about 4000 more votes than Stevens, with about 2/3rds counted. If he picks up only 1000 more of the last third, and leads by 1800 or so, there would be no right to a recount. (1800/300000=0.6%)
oops, I screwed up. According to the site I cited, the state bears the cost of the recount, unless it's over the 0.5% threshold, at which point the candidate or the group of concerned citizens must fork over 10 grand. So apparently Stevens or some Republicans can still call for a recount, even if they wind up being down by far more than the ~1500 votes needed to reach the half a percent threshold.
Speaking of the Senate, I just contributed to Martin's runoff against Chambliss here:
https://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=NqjXO81IXYZntPaqXypreP1LqSo0CHUy
With Begich and Franken all we can do is hope and root, but with Martin we can still actual affect the outcome.
Plus, there's no one more vile than Chambliss after his smear campaign against Max Cleland.
If Stevens loses narrowly, I don't think there'll be much enthusiasm for contesting the result from national Republicans. Sarah Palin in Alaska, of course, may take a different view.
Going off the information that the outstanding votes are from more pro-democrat precincts, it looks to me 1800+ should be easy to get past.
While I understand polling in alaska may be difficult (coming from the NW.. people that head up to AK to work are well... terminally unique to be kind), my underlying concern is not just the poll variance.. but the huge undervote compared to expected turnout.
It seems to me a good 50,000 votes never materialized, and these votes should have leaned pretty hard to the blue side. Anyone else following this seen a good write up around this? I need something for my withdrawals.
Anyone who thinks that the Democrats will kick Lieberman out when he begins his campaign of sabotage is nuts. Reid met with Lieberman to offer a deal where he lost Homeland Security and got Small Business. Lieberman said it wasn't acceptable and Reid cringed spinelessly per usual. You think he'll suddenly develop a spine later? Fat chance.
According to the Daily Kos link in Sean's post, there is only an automatic recount if there is a tie, and only a right to recount if it is requested and within 0.5%
I don’t think for a moment that Palin wants the Senate Seat and probably doesn’t even want the headache of appointing someone. Again, we seem obsessed this week with her. Could it be that the novelty of Obama’s election has warn off already?
Link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/11/12/palin/index.html
Camille Paglia’s latest piece in Salon is perhaps the most balanced summary account of where we are and why as I have seen. In a magnificent sweep she takes us from the improbable excitement attendant on Obama’s victory to the improbable vilification that Sarah Palin was exposed to on the national scene.
As she has all season, Paglia insists on seeing things for the way they are and has suspended judgment based on policy and has filtered this campaign through her own peculiar lens of character.
She has enthusiastically embraced Palin's persona, while expressing disapproval, mostly mild, of Obama’s own turn on the stage.
Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got. That the attacks seemed most resonate within the councils of the educated and elite made it all worse. Talk about your culture wars!
I mean, really, how Bourgeois!
In fact, Palin, as Paglia points out, by her very example has advanced the cause of women’s rights by showcasing just how a successful woman can be wife and mother: She gets help from her Husband! Could it be that hubby is willing to pitch in for his successful wife provided she retains her feminine charm, looks and guile? She competes as a woman as an equal. This may be Palin's greatest strength.
That and her cross-cultural appeal. Her example can be as inspiring and empowering to the working class woman as it is to the aspiring female executive. I wonder if it can be said that Hillary Clinton inspires so broadly. While HRC’s appeal is undeniable, I am not sure she is as personally inspiring to the working class woman as Palin.
Camille Paglia is stunningly perceptive to see how Palin’s appeal could even extend to the Third World. Imagine then the reputation of America and what it would have been said to have accomplished: First bringing Democracy to the World and then liberating half of its citizens.
Breathtaking!
It is hard to read Paglia’s column and observe Palin’s coverage during this week of her self-control of her media exposure, without thinking that it is she, not Obama who is on the ascendancy at the moment.
As I see it, Obama has been cut all his favors, while Palin got no slack. America loves a comeback. Stand aside for the Million Dollar Baby!
The only way Give 'em Hell Harry Reid's body could ever have a spine inserted into it would be for him to step on a sea urchin - unlikely in landlocked Nevada.
Harry needs to get a testoserone transfusion from Kucinich or Feingold.
Pete - we're obsessed with Sarah Palin because she's:
1) truly hilarious
2) polarizing the Republican party to the point of no return
(perhaps because she can see the polar icecap from her kitchen window and likes to shoot polar bears)
PeteKent said...
"...In fact, Palin, as Paglia points out, by her very example has advanced the cause of women’s rights..."
November 13, 2008 4:58 AM
***************
By making rape victims pay from themselves for forensic test ?
link:
http://opedna.com/2008/09/08/wasilla-police-billed-sexual-assault-victims-for-rape-kits/
c'mon,
Palin is a shame for all women who carry a brain inside the scull.
PeteKent said...
Stand aside for the Million Dollar Baby!
November 13, 2008 4:58 AM
********
I watched tath movie:
she died in the end.
:)
wv squali = the italian word for sharks:
greedy Republicons white sharks
;)
I'm looking forward to one day flying into Mark Begich International Airport.
DNFTT
Cut and paste alert.
Developing....
wv- bughhum, a suburb of Manchester
Joe The Fake Virginian said...
DNFTT
Cut and paste alert.
Developing....
**********
:)
sometime I can't stop myself.
good morning America !
:)
@ matador
Well, if you are having fun feeding them....
;)
The prospect of the Dems holding 60 Senate seats is to me far less frightening than the prospect of the Repubs holding 60 seats.
After all, which ALWAYS puts party before country and are great at ruling but suck at governing?
when can we expect another set of figures from AK?
A hint regarding the future of 538, from an interview with Nate in this week's (international edition) Newsweek:
Nate says "We'll look at Congress to predict who votes for which bills. It would be good to look up a senator's stats like the way you do in baseball."
I'm a huge fan of Nate and the site, but someone needs to mail him a copy of Strunk and White.
What a shame polar bears don't get to vote.
urave -republican thread after they lost.
PeteKent: Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got.
Well, if he's just going to reprint his post from the prior thread, I'll just repost my response:
Free pass? Reverend Wright? Really? There was plenty of negative reporting about Obama for those willing not to screen out the information that might disprove one's point.
The fact that Palin got treated harshly is not evidence of a double standard. What hurt her most was not the rumors about irrelevant matters that were mostly not picked up by the media. What hurt her was her inability to answer some very basic policy questions and even basic inquiries concerning her own approach to government. Really, how can she completely fail to name a single news sources she relies on?
If you're a public figure and don't come across as knowing stuff, expect a tough time. It looks like Obama knows stuff. It looks like Palin doesn't. That's not a double standard; that's reporting. It would be a double standard to treat people as equally knowledgeable if the facts show that they are not.
"andrew said...
I'm looking forward to one day flying into Mark Begich International Airport."
Now now. That is hardly democratic. I vote it should stay named after Stevens.
How about Felon International Airport? or Pork Politics International Airport?
pardi -Parody but trimed by journalists so headline can be in very big letters for very small minds.
matador,
initially the filibuster required an actual endless stream of talk from the filibustering senator(s). it was a physically demanding task and used more scarcely. Now you can basically have a filibuster without actually having one, which lead to a much increased importance of the 60 sen quorum.
IMO, the best example to explain the current filibuster/cloture situation in the US senate is the beginning of the Hitchhiker Guide to the Universe, when Arthur Dent is laying in front of the bulldozer that is about to tear down his house. Ford Prefect comes to tell him the quite important upcoming news and as they move to the pub, Arthur talks Prosser the foreman into lying in the mud in his place.
We need to get rid of Reid, NOW. Pelosi seems like she would be fine now that the executive branch is in Democratic control, but Reid is still as spineless as ever. And the nation hates him, and his approval ratings in Nevada are in the crapper for 2010.
Get rid of him.
PeteKent, by all means continue with the delusion that Palin is a modern day political heroine who can restore power and credibility to the GOP brand. I hope and pray that your fellow conservatives are dumb enough to nominate her in 2012.
What you fail to recognise is that all of the vilification she has received this past week has come from conservatives who are now able to tell the truth with the election over. Frankly I couldn't give a damn whether or not she knew that Africa was a country. I (and most of America) already know that she has neither the intellectual curiosity or the wisdom to become President. To be fair to her, the criticism from McCain staffers is unfair to the extent that they vetted and selected her. Her stupidity simply underscores McCain's lack of judgment.
But all this misses the point PeteKent. You lost. Badly. Palin and McCain will be nothing but a footnote in political history. Deal with it friend. A terrorist loving, muslim, American hating, effete, gay, black man is YOUR president. His angry black panther wife is YOUR first lady. Consider that from your parents' basement pal.
i dont know who i want out more reid or lieberman.
just once i wish the party would listen to what the people they represent want-and we want joey long gone. But if they ignore us on the war and on the patriot act why should they start listening now?
lieberman isnt even a democrat why does he get anything?
Judging by the number of times Pete Kent has posted that Camille Paglia stuff, he is either very proud of it or running out of stuff to say.
Paglia is entitled to her opinion of Sarah Palin, just like Pete Kent is. And so I am. And I don't think she got a raw deal because she is a woman. She got bad press because she is an idiot. An ambitious idiot, lacking in self-awareness, full of self-importance. And her political views are abhorrent to me, as are her choices of how to spend her leisure time.
Thank God Begich looks like winning now so she won't somehow end up in the Senate.
@don't panic
But surely it was Ford Prefect who persuaded the foreman, because he came from a planet near Betelgeuse and had these powers....
Not as off topic as some posts here!
livemild,
Reid is a loyal Democrat, unlike Joe. Sure, I would like to see Reid project a stronger leadership style, but maybe his mild approach will help get more cooperation on some of Obama's initiatives in the Senate. Maybe he'll be more likely to let the White House drive the agenda, unlike what typically has happened in the past when there's been both a Dem WH and Congress...
We don't really want Lieberman out of the caucus, either. He's a reliable Dem vote on 95% of the issues, but he does need to know that he crossed the line and there do need to be consequences. I think Reid is doing the right thing by making the caucus vote on whether or not Joe keeps is HSC Chairmanship. If most Dem Senators want him to stay where he is, then they're the ones who know best what he's like to work with in the Senate. However, if they vote to strip him of his Chairmanship and reassign him to another (lower-ranking) Committee as part of "Democratic restructuring due to so many new Senators coming in", then it's in Joe's hands. If Joe decides to turncoat to the Republicans, then Reid and the Dems keep their hands clean and say "We tried to play nice, but Joe just wasn't willing to be part of our team anymore."
Actually a smart move, because it robs Joe of his claims to victimhood and shows him to be the weasel that he is.
I am sooo looking forward to CT's next Senatorial race...
I would rather pour hot coals down my pants.
As I understand it, that's the effect Palin has on Rich Lowry.
p smith: Frankly I couldn't give a damn whether or not she knew that Africa was a country. I (and most of America) already know that she has neither the intellectual curiosity or the wisdom to become President.
The claim that Palin didn't know that Africa is a continent is a hoax. It's in today's NY Times.
But I agree with the main point. It's not about what other people have said about her, it's what she's said and done herself. She couldn't or didn't name a single news source she relies on. She said repeatedly that she opposed the "bridge to nowhere" when she had supported it earlier and should have known that her claim would be checked out. Her comments on the bailout/rescue plan sounded like I had more of a handle on it than she did.
At the moment, she cannot garner a majority to win at the national level and the demographics would be even worse for her in four or even eight years. If she aspires to higher office, she needs to expand her appeal beyond the "us vs. them" that she appealed to in the campaign, because "them" are in a growing majority. If she does have political smarts, she'll stay in Alaska and prove her skills as governor before trying to move on. It would be foolish for her to subject herself at this time to more national scrutiny in the Senate if the Stevens seat opens up--which in any case is looking increasingly unlikely.
I'm beginning to wonder if the 60-vote rule for cloture isn't a sacred cow whose time has passed. It's not enshrined in the Constitution and is a relic that's been used to block reasonable legislation. It does throw a monkey-wrench into the legislative process, encouraging deadlocks where none need exist and thwarts the will of voters who elect legislative majorities. Additionally, it's frequently abused and -- in Democratic hands, at least -- nearly completely ineffective.
Two things:
1) All this talk about 60 being a filibuster-proof majority is stupid. Anyone who has watched the Senate Dems in the past decade for more than 5 minutes knows how silly this idea is. A true filibuster-proof number for Dems would be more like 66, not 60. You will always have a half-dozen defections from the Dem caucus on any given issue, unless you're really lucky. Our best hope is to peel off moderate Repubs (there are no liberal Repubs) to get those cloture votes.
2) All this talk about Lieberman being under control by keeping him in his HomeSec chairmanship is stupid. Anyone who has watched him for more than 5 minutes in the past half-decade knows how stupid this idea is. Doing so is basically like reward a whining, tantrum-throwing child with candy and new toys. Threaten to take his chairmanship away later, and guess what, he'll start up the exact same routine as he is now, and our weak Senate leadership and his handful of devotees (Salazar, Durbin, etc.) will kowtow to him once again. In fact, it will be even less likely to work to rein him in than it is now. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
I just get a kick out of how delusional some posters here are. I understand the desire to think that the Senate Dems are somehow being brilliant and devious by giving Lieberman a long leash, but the real explanation is much simpler - they are weak-willed and don't really give a shit about doing what's right and fair to begin with. Reid is worthless, and mark my words, any downfall in the perception of Democratic leadership and competence in the next 2 years starts with him, right now.
I'm with Eric. The Democrats need to shed Lieberman now, to avoid looking weak. Reid I know nothing about, but if he really is weak then either he has to change or go, because the Republicans have lost some of their more moderate senators, and have had a bloody nose in the elections generally, which means they are less likely to co-operate, and more likely to cause trouble. You need to have someone with enough political savvy to show the Republicans up and enough confidence to be able to assert the Democrats' right as the majority party to get legislation through. Lieberman has to go because he has shown himself untrustworthy. Yes, rightwing media will make a brief fuss about the nasty Dems, but THE PUBLIC WON'T CARE. It will be worse the longer it gets left.
Does Alaska have some special technique for vote counting that the other states don't? Roman numerals, perhaps?
PeteKent,
You're being dumb, really. Paglia has been a leftist in name only for as long as I can rememeber. She tries to build her notertiety by living in the most liberal of cities while professing to hold 'outrageous' conservative views drawn straight from Rush Limbaugh's talking points.
It's a boring act. And at this point, very dated and insignificant.
If you want to read interesting conservatives may I suggest you follow Ross Douthat or David Brooks. I don't agree with them but at least they make real point with real arguments, not long turgid essays molded around right wing slander drivel.
Frankly I think the Pag's verbal support for Palin is all based on her sexual proclivities.
I think Lieberman can stay in his current post if he does the following:
(1) Apologizes profusely for his statements during the presidential campaign
(2) Campaigns for Martin in the U. S. Senate race in GA (against his old buddy McCain).
I still think he should be offered the chairmanship of a lesser committee. It's up to the Senate Democratic Caucus.
mrs b,
Have the Democrats changed their plan to vote on whether or not Lieberman keeps his HSC Committee seat?
If they are still planning to vote, then the best thing that any of us can do is call or write (actual pen and paper) the Democratic Senators. Tell them why we think Joe needs to lose his seat on the Homeland Security Committee, and make it primarily about him doing a poor job on Homeland Security. Talk about his lack of leadership and oversight, and how we think he has let the country down by not following through on the committee's objectives.
And you can then add that you think he needs to see some consequences for going back on his word not to campaign against Obama, especially after Obama stumped for him in 2006. You can acknowledge that he's a reliable Dem vote, but suggest that another committee might be better suited to his character.
Just my suggestion...
Senator Contact Info
(2) Campaigns for Martin in the U. S. Senate race in GA (against his old buddy McCain).
Yeah, because Yankee Jews are so popular down in Georgia.
Sending down Nunn or a Clinton down there is helpful. Sending down Lieberman is rather pointless, IMHO.
With Begich and Franken all we can do is hope and root, but with Martin we can still actual affect the outcome.
Actually, you can still contribute to Franken and Begich, too, to help cover the costs of legal actions (and pay campaign debts, most likely.) From Franken's website:
"Note: Individuals can contribute up to $2300 for the recount effort,
previous contributions to Al Franken for Senate do not count towards that limit."
I think Lieberman can stay in his current post if he does the following:
No. The correct way to think about this is not that taking away a chairmanship is punishment, but that being awarded a chairmanship is a reward. Chairmanships in the Senate are awarded strictly on seniority, and if a member of the caucus shows he isn't a member except when the Senate is in session (by vigorously campaigning for multiple members of the other party) then his seniority should reset to zero.
This obsession with sixty seats is silly. No matter what, a few democrats would vote with the republicans and a few of the moderate republicans would vote with the dems, so cloture would really depend on the specific bill and what benefit a senator would get for voting for or against it.
Also if Obama is very popular even a lot of republicans would vote with the dems fearing voter blowback if they went against a popular president.
Also the same for the dems if obama is unpopular a lot of dems will vote against things he supports.
The sixty vote level is just a psychological barrier that the media loves to push. Any way you slice it the dems are in the drivers seat.
Still it would be nice to see dogs like Stevens, Coleman and Chambliss go down to defeat.
I do not trust Lieberman. As chair of Homeland Security he'll have oversight jurisdiction over lots of the goings on in the Obama administration. He's shown himself hostile to Obama. I'd much rather have a loyal Democrat who will not use the committee to embarrass the administration or cause PR problems. We don't need a lackey (Republicans were too often a rubberstamp for Bush and it's bad for the country), but we also don't need someone who may try to sabotage the administration. On top of all that, he doesn't deserve it since he campaigned for McCain and said lots of negative things about Obama. Finally, if he does caucus with the Republicans, then we'll easily win his seat in 2012. If he stays with the Democrats, I'm not so sure.
to long island democrat: Disagree with you on the OR Senate race. It's great that Oregon elected Jeff Merkley. He will be a far greater advocate for Oregonians and the nation that Gordon Smith ever was. Sure Smith is a nice guy and against the war (when it became unpopular), but he really didn't do much for the state. He and our super Senator Wyden did team up at times, but mostly Smith voted with the Bush admin. Merkley is a policy wonk, extremely smart (Stanford, Princeton) who has worked as a Pentagon analyst and Portland Director of Habitat for Humanity. As OR House Speaker he got a lot of good legislation passed to protect and help Oregonians. He is also extremely nice, down to earth, and really listens.
Hannah
Interestingly, Ethan Berkowitz is also closing in on Don Young in the US House race, and is now within 0.5%.
So the GOP might lose that seat as well, although that's far from certain at this point.
Oops, I misread the stats on the House race. The margin is 5.5%, we we'll definitely be seeing more of Rep. Young. Damn 4's and 9's - are my eyes failing me already?
Obama should not go to Georgia, as it is one of the most likely places for a gun-totin' true believer to succeed. We need him more than we need to get rid of scumbag Chambliss.
mclever and mrs b say it well, along with a good few others. I also saw poll that Americans are happy with majority 58-39. Dems listen and compromise, Pubs give the store away to themselves and their friends.
hoot!:
If McCain campaigns in GA for Chambliss, just have Max Cleland follow him around to remind McCain of his criticism of Chambliss' slimy campaign ads in 2002.
Lieberman has allowed Homeland Security to steal from the American public. He needs to go.
Asking mrs b in England about our procedure - interesting!
contact information: best way to get results
http://senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
Vinny
Obama may not be campaigning in GA, but he's sending surrogates.
Many, many surrogates. Our local organizer has already been called down - and I live in Michigan, mind you.
It's rather brilliant, actually - nationally he's keeping his distance, but should the efforts prevail, there will be lots of Dems in the state grateful for the assistance and feet-on-the-ground Obama summoned at a moment's notice.
I wonder who's funding the paid organizers, though... hmm.
Anyone who thinks Bush et al. are laying back should think again. They are busy pushing rules through as fast as they can, selling public lands to industry, lowering pollution controls, resetting birth control as abortion, trying to perpetuate Gitmo, etc. Today I got notice they are planning to sell/give Oregon forests to loggers. 68 days is way too long.
Once again irresistible: sinfecal says it all! :)
Obama just reached 66,602,400. Hope this moves on quickly before the mad bad Limbaugh, et al. can blast the airwaves with it!
He's increasing at a very rapid relative rate. I had assume it would stay 52.7 to 46.0 but am now hoping it will go to 52.8 to 45.9!
PeteKent: "I don’t think for a moment that Palin wants the Senate Seat and probably doesn’t even want the headache of appointing someone. Again, we seem obsessed this week with her. Could it be that the novelty of Obama’s election has warn off already?"
Since the election, the republicans basically have become the party of "PeteKent" - no issues, no problems, no solutions. Just the party of yarnspinning, narrative writing and caricaturing. This sort of politics works just fine while times are good, but when times are bad, the population wants and expects more of its government than a well crafted storyline. Take a ride around talk radio this week. The lefty talkers are abuzz with debate over solutions and policy prescriptions for the economy, healthcare, energy policy, climate change, etc. On the other hand, the Limbaugh set is filling their air time talking about how "creepy" and alien Obama and his family seem - totally oblivious about the fact that to todays younger, more racially mixed, more multicultural mainstream voter, Obama is probably the "normal" guy they can relate to, while the 72 year old McCain, and the Stepford wife-resembling Palin are the ones that might be found to be a bit "creepy". On Fox News, Dick Morris is hauled out to rehabilitate Sarah Palin by spinning yarns about how McCain would have lost by much more without her. Let's not let all the polling get in the way of a good story.
I just heard Randi Rhodes describing the Chambliss/Cleland ad and getting people stirred up about it and I suddenly realized - 2002 was before youtube!
That ad was Saxby's Macaca Moment - we need to get it and put it on youtube and get Cleland visible in Georgia and f****** jam that thing down his lying throat. That ad, and McCain's response to it, would be dynamite.
Alaska has updated their chart of remaining ballots to tbe counted:
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/files/08GENR/absentee_early_question_numbers_11.12.08.pdf
25,620 Absentee
169 Early
14,932 Question
Only 2,431 Absentees and 2,751 Question ballots remain to be counted from Mat-Su. That has to be good news for Begich.
With so many absentee ballots to be counted, begich will lose. His margin is not big enough to overcome GOP registration advantage.
If the criminal Jefferson can win in LA, why cant we give the criminal Stevens his due?
BTW Have you noticed how Sarah Palin ahs driven Obama right off the front pages? No one much seems to care about the President Elect and his transition.
Except the stock market and it seems to think the Obama years will be very bad indeed.
He needs to come out now and say no new taxes!
PeteKent: With so many absentee ballots to be counted, begich will lose.
Hope you're willing to revisit that statement in a week or two. I like to keep track of people's predictions. And I don't think the numbers back this one up given the ballots to be counted and the regions they're coming from. (Didn't you say that the surprise of the election would be the GOP winning the NJ Senate seat?)
If the criminal Jefferson can win in LA, why cant we give the criminal Stevens his due?
At last we agree: the willingness of people to vote for corrupt politicians is amazing. I don't approve of either case.
BTW Have you noticed how Sarah Palin ahs driven Obama right off the front pages? No one much seems to care about the President Elect and his transition.
What front pages are you reading? The ones I read are all about Obama and the transition, and very little about Palin. Is there a "confirmation bias" going on here where one screens information to look only at the data that supports one's predetermined view? We all need to be on guard for this tendency; it makes it hard to get things right in the long run (see, e.g., the Bush administration which suffered from a terminal case of confirmation bias).
Dsimon-
I dont mean the Newspapers -- no one actually reads those anymore. I mean the nets and cable news.
Its all Palin all the time.
Obama should NOT campaign in GA.
Don't forget, he LOST there. And pretty badly too.
The best he could do is deliver some minority votes to Martin, however, they are gonna vote Democrat anyways.
What he does need to do, however, is try and use some of his ground game to organize well directed GOTV drives prior to the runoff. Thats critical...
PeteKent--
Except the stock market and it seems to think the Obama years will be very bad indeed.
Dow ends up nearly 553 in rebound from selloff Yeah, goin' right into the tank, isn't it...
wv mardis New chain with competing with TGI Fridays
I know I am not alone when I say that Sarah Palin should stay in the spotlight as long as possible..it can only be good news for the Dems.
Just to recall, this is the same woman who:
1. Could not list ONE single newspaper that she reads.
2. Could not cite any Supreme Court decisions other than Roe v. Wade.
3. Could not list the countries in NAFTA
4. Believes in banning books
5. Believes in creationism and abstinence only sex ed..with a pregnant teenage daughter
6. Her husband was a member of the Alaska Independence Party, and their primary goal is to secede from the US (she spoke at their convention this year).
7. See politico today about her press conference in Miami.
8. Has repeatedly been thrown under the bus by conservative columnists including: George Will, Kathleen Parker, David Brooks, to name a few...
9. The GOP, being unbelievably ignorant, assumed that putting her on the ticket, would woo the Hilary voters...what happened? Well, Obama won the women's vote by 13%.
10. She makes GWB look like Einstein.
Obama had nothing to do with today's rally.
Per yahoo finance:
Wall Street has launched a massive rebound, sending the Dow Jones industrial average up about 550 points after driving it near its lows for the year. Following three days of selling that wiped out about $1 trillion in shareholder value, many investors, though nervous about the economy, appear to believe the market has priced in enough bad news.
PeteKent,
While I agree with you that the rally has nothing to do with Obama, the same is true on the downside. You can't claim the down is his doing and then say the up has nothing to do with him. Please. Both or neither, but you can't play two sides of the same coin.
PeteKent,
Did you happen to notice that absentee ballots are exactly what took this election fom a 3500 vote Stevens lead to a ~800+ vote Begich lead? Or is that news to you?
What makes you think the remaining absentees will be so different from those which have put Begich in the lead?
I'm still not ready to call this one, as much as I'd like to. 800 votes is a fraction of a percentage point, in a race Begich was predicted to win hands-down.
-- A.
I too have noticed that the losing candidate for "the most useless office" is getting at least as much ink and airtime as the President-elect. In the local papers, I can understand, because she's still our Governor. But I don't recall Lieberman or Edwards getting this much attention a week after the election.
Hannah said "...It's great that Oregon elected Jeff Merkley."
Sorry, I just can't read that name without thinking of President Merkin Muffley.
I like the fact that the Alaska Independent candidate has 11315 votes, with Stevens currently behind 800 or so. It makes me believe in God, in the same way I suppose that Ralph Nader caused a surge of new membership in evangelical churches in 2000.
PeteKent: I dont mean the Newspapers -- no one actually reads those anymore. I mean the nets and cable news.
Its all Palin all the time.
Well, then what did you mean by "front page"? Do nets and cable news have front pages? (TVs don't have pages, do they?) "Front page" usually refers to newspapers, no? Perhaps a different word would have made the claim more accurately.
And again, I see plenty of cable news and nets that hardly have Palin as the lead story all the time. Again, I suspect there's selection bias going on here. Do you have objective data to back up your claim?
Third, if "no one actually reads" the papers anymore, why are Republicans so frequently on the warpath about the NY Times and Washington Post? If no one actually read them, their critics wouldn't actually care.
A couple of weeks ago I said Alaskans were half-retarded and this election would be close. I was right on the money. The question now is: are Alaskans slightly more than half-retarded, or slightly less than half-retarded?
Which websites?
I saw that Palin got some headlines yesterday, but on the front page today, CNN and MSNBC both have about half a dozen articles each on Obama. CNN has one article on Palin (which doesn't mention her in the headline) while MSNBC has none.
The only stuff that I've seen on Palin is sort of a "watch the traffic accident" articles, like McCain staffers blaming her for everything that can think of.
Finally some new numbers in the Begich/Stevens race, as of just now from the Alaska Division of Elections:
They counted 11,285 more votes, and Begich is now ahead by 1,061 votes. So he continues to gain.
Actual tally:
Begich 137,527 (47.4%)
Stevens 136,466 (47.0%)
--------------------------------
difference 1,061 (up from 814 two days ago)
There's still supposed to be a bit over 5000 votes to count today, and another 24,000 or so next week. From the increase in percentage difference, it looks more likely that Begich might pull ahead enough to prevent a recount that the state would pay for, which requires them to be within 1/2 of a percentage point. A larger difference than that, & a recount would require the requestor to pay the cost.
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From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.
By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.
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