Roughly 15,000 additional votes have come in in Alaska, with more to come, and Democrat Mark Begich has taken a three-vote lead over Republican Ted Stevens, 125019 to 125016.
More to come tonight and in the coming few days to finish off the race, but given where we expect the remaining votes are located, this looks very good for Begich. It looks very bad for Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, and Andrew Sullivan, who probably wanted the material if Sarah Palin were to run to replace Stevens in a special election.
This might be a good time to mention to readers that FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff.
11.12.2008
Begich Goes Into Lead by Three Votes
@ 8:07 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
136 comments
first!
Under Alaskan law, post-Murkowitz, Palin CANNOT appoint herself. A special election would be required. Please note for future reference.
There is some sanity in the world
DAMN YOU JUSTIN
Hm. Perhaps Alaska isn't as cutting edge as we thought. Begich will make a good Senator.
nth!!
-------
Keep gaining them votes, Begich!
Ya gotta win.
Dear God:
ANYTHING but one more minute of Palin!!!!!!
Hell - I would vote for Saxby Chambliss if it guaranteed we would be rid of her forever!!!!!!
Sweet.
My God, why is everyone so juvenile? Ooh, look at me, I'm first! Big fucking deal - no one gives a shit!
David Rees (GYWO) asks: Am I The Next Nate Silver?
http://www.mnftiu.cc/2008/11/11/am-i-the-next-nate-silver/
@Nate: Do you have any idea where the outstanding votes are from?
@morzer: All I can find is AS 15.40.145, which says the governor can appoint a replacement 5 days after the vacancy. That is the law Republicans put in place so that Murkowski could name his daughter as his successor. I don't doubt you, but where is the law that trumps this one.
I hope Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012. Remember what Clinton did to Dole in 1996? I think if Obama runs a savvy campaign again, exploiting opponent's weaknesses, networking, organization, and use of the Presidential bully pulpit, she would take a shellacking. That is of course Obama doesn't do something to fuck himself all up. He's pretty pragmatic though and I don't see that happening. Weirder things have happened though. Like the fact that convicted felons can't vote in some places but can run for and win office. Gotta love America.
this long good tuesday (nov 4) election is providing some drama that the original tuesday a week ago didnt.
minnesota and alaska and georgia really know how to run an election.
Morzer is right on. No appointment. Although a special election for this seat involving Palin would be media catnip.
Thing is, this is simply untrue. The comedians DON'T want Stevens to win.
The reality is that the comedians don't need Sarah Palin to be funny, and indeed, as many comedians have pointed out, there will always be funny stuff around.
Not to mention the fact that many/most of them are liberal anyway.
How often does the Alaska website update? This suspense is killing me... just when I thought I'd broken my election addiction...
Ah, a referendum. That may not be enough under the US Constitution to remove the power. The Constitution says the executive of the state can appoint if the legislature gives him the power to do so: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct. 17th Amendment. The legislature did give that power and did not take it away.
58th!
(senate seat that is)
Franken's up to bat and Martin's in the bullpen.
60 is good round number, eh?
FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff.
You guys are the bomb!
18th!!
YES GET UNCLE TED THE HELL OUT OF THERE
Not a felon? Um, last time I checked being a convicted felon made you a felon.
-Brandon
I don’t think for a moment that Palin want the Senate Seat and probably doesn’t even want the headache of appointing someone. Again, we seem obsessed this week with her. Could it be that the novelty of Obama’s election has warn off already?
Link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/11/12/palin/index.html
Camille Paglia’s latest piece in Salon is perhaps the most balanced summary account of where we are and why as I have seen. In a magnificent sweep she takes us from the improbable excitement attendant on Obama’s victory to the improbable vilification that Sarah Palin was exposed to on the national scene.
As she has all season, Paglia insists on seeing things for the way they are and has suspended judgment based on policy and has filtered this campaign through her own peculiar lens of character.
She has enthusiastically embraced Palin's persona, while expressing disapproval, mostly mild, of Obama’s own turn on the stage.
Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got. That the attacks seemed most resonate within the councils of the educated and elite made it all worse. Talk about your culture wars!
I mean, really, how Bourgeois!
In fact, Palin, as Paglia points out, by her very example has advanced the cause of women’s rights by showcasing just how a successful woman can be wife and mother: She gets help from her Husband! Could it be that hubby is willing to pitch in for his successful wife provided she retains her feminine charm, looks and guile? She competes as a woman as an equal. This may be Palin's greatest strength.
That and her cross-cultural appeal. Her example can be as inspiring and empowering to the working class woman as it is to the aspiring female executive. I wonder if it can be said that Hillary Clinton inspires so broadly. While HRC’s appeal is undeniable, I am not sure she is as personally inspiring to the working class woman as Clinton.
Camille Paglia is stunningly perceptive to see how Palin’s appeal could even extend to the Third World. Imagine then the reputation of America and what it would have been said to have accomplished: First bringing Democracy to the World and then liberating half of its citizens.
Breathtaking!
It is hard to read Paglia’s column and observe Palin’s coverage during this week of her self-control of her media exposure, without thinking that it is she, not Obama who is on the ascendancy at the moment.
As I see it, Obama has been cut all his favors, while Palin got no slack. America loves a comeback. Stand aside for the Million Dollar Baby!
@Richard: This has been discussed in detail in some other posts, but you are right that there is a grey area. It would probably end up going to the supreme Court.
Georgia Georgia Georgia
The trick is getting out all the Obama voters while not creating such a stir that the McCain folk come out to vote for that bastard Chambliss.
How many votes need to separate the candidates to avoid triggering an automatic recount (or runoff), and what are the odds that the remaining uncounted ballots will put Begich over that magic number?
The AK voter pool is relatively small, which means that not many votes are needed to be outside the margin of error, but with small differences like this....
Richard - I took my ConLaw a long time ago (39 years), but I remember a SCOTUS case holding that an act by initiative has the same force and effect as an act by a state's legislature in interpreting a similar provision of the constitution (or maybe even this one). (Was Alaskaa's enactment an initiative or a referendum? If the latter the legislature would have been involved. I think it was an initiative.)
I feel like a member of "The Boy Rangers" (the newspaper run by kids back home in the movie "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington")
WE'RE WITH YOU NATE and SEAN!
My God, why is everyone so juvenile? So some guy was so excited that a usually packed comment section was empty so he celebrated that he was first. Big fucking deal - no one gives a shit!
But yea Sean, it's kind of a dick move to say that comedians want things to be this way or that cause they could make more jokes out of them. Larry King said as much when he interviewed John Stewart and that set him off, and rightfully so. It's claiming that they think their jobs are more important than the state of the nation.
Palin just discussed this today with Wolf.
A. She clearly thought that Stevens had won! and that the reason was voters wanted to keep the seat in republican hands.
B. She would not appoint herself or a family member if the Senate did not seat Stevens. As has been mentioned she could not appoint herself, but she could see to it that she was appointed after resigning the governorship.
C. She seemed willing to consider running in a special election that would occur no sooner than two years from now.
OH YEAH, all this is for not, because BEGICH is gonna win
Alaska Code § 15.40.145. Temporary appointment of United States senator
When a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator, the governor may, at least five days after the date of the vacancy but within 30 days after the date of the vacancy, appoint a qualified individual to fill the vacancy temporarily until the results of the special election called to fill the vacancy are certified. If a special election is not called for the reasons set out in AS 15.40.140, the individual shall fill the vacancy temporarily until the results of the next general election are certified.
To quote Sesame Street
Three, three, three, lets sing a song about three.....how many is three?
Jim Martin's case in GA should be:
1) I will often support Obama, but not always
2) Chambliss doesn't have a bipartisan bone in his body
3) GA needs a Dem Senator when there is Dem President and an all-Dem Congress for the benefit of the state
That and of course Chambliss is a complete jerk, even worse than Coleman if that's possible (although if Coleman wins, he'll likely vote with the Dems somewhat)
Hey PeteKent--
WTF? Your true colors? A Hillary supporter? Or just a little Freudian slip?
You said:
"I wonder if it can be said that Hillary Clinton inspires so broadly. While HRC’s appeal is undeniable, I am not sure she is as personally inspiring to the working class woman as Clinton."
I think that using profanity is much more juvenile than claiming to be "first"
How come no number updates on Franken/Coleman today?
No need to be surprised about PeteKent. She is a PUMA and Hillary supporter. Probably either a Camille Paglia fellow rug muncher, or Camille herself.
I usually don't read anything this idjet posts, but I saw the name Camille Paglia and wanted to see what the feminist-traitor was up to now. No surprises. Move on. Nothing to see.
sunny,
For the most part the canvassing is complete in MN and the recount has not yet begun.
An interesting link for live blogging re the MN senate race
http://theuptake.org/
Good catch, Robin!
To Hillary, I say: "Respect!"
I re-ran my spreadsheet. The percentage of the newly-tallied votes for each candidate:
Begich 50.49%
Stevens 42.90%
With the remainder to the third-party guys...
That's a very solid margin there. It would be surprising if Begich didn't pull this off.
OMG YAY! Go Begich!
Sunny, there's nothing new to report in MN today. The Secretary of State chose the people who are going to be on the canvassing board with him, that's about it. Shifting in pre-recount numbers seems to be over.
We should be getting another AK update as 5pm AK time approaches...
Again, if her ultimate goal is to run for the presidency, then I don't see why Palin would give running for the Senate a second thought.
a) A first-term senator in the minority party has very little clout or opportunity to pass meaningful legislation;
b) Obama is the first sitting senator since Kennedy to be elected president as voters overwhelmingly prefer voting for governors;
c) A big part of Palin's appeal is her "outsider" or "maverick" appearance, which will dissipate if she spends any amount of time in Washington.
Can you guys imagine if Begich just barely wins in Alaska and Franken barely wins Minnesota the Republicans will be screaming that the Democrats stole the election and it's all ACOR's fault. There probably aren't any ACOR operations in Alaska anyway, but that won't matter :-).
Note: I think if they won those two races that would bring the number of Democrats+independents in the senate up to 59 and Georgia is still in play...
The polls were right.
538 was right.
Another embarassment for Palin.
Hopefully Begich wins so it doesn't matter, but if Stevens does and a new election follows, it makes perfect sense for Palin to want to be Senator.
Why?
1) She'd have served four years in 2012, the same as Obama.
2) She'd get far more attention in DC than in faraway Alaska.
3) She'd gain far more experience in DC than what she already has in Alaska.
I can't imagine, if she wants to run for President in 2012, for anything to make more sense than for her to run for the Senate.
@walt526:
I agree that she'd lose the "outsider" mystique, but she might well try to play the "maverick" card again, without somebody else calling her shots. Who knows? Her decision-making process isn't exactly in line with that of most of the posters here.
Hmm. Do you think she knows that the Senate isn't a good place from which to run? That's a more savvy observation than she's normally credited with making, and whatever handlers she's listening to might not have thought to point it out.
Does anyone have any figures on the absolute number of youth voters (approximately) who voted democrat in 2008 vs 2004?
The total number of youth voters who voted for either candidate isn't as helpful because of the diminished GOP turnout. I'm trying to find out how many more young people voted for Obama than Kerry.
Thanks,
Alaska is no stranger to goalpost shifting ... if there's anything that's right on the money, it is: the Barracuda will attempt to exploit any opportunity -- for shlessu
"If Stevens loses the appeal and his seat is vacated, his successor is chosen by rules set by the state of Alaska.
Each state gets to set its own rules for filling vacancies, according to the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1913. That amendment said senators are to be elected by popular vote, rather than by the state legislatures. It's up to individual states to decide whether temporary appointments can be made when a vacancy occurs.
Alaska's rules of succession have been changed again and again, each time to benefit the majority party in the Legislature.
Before 1968, the rule was that a newly appointed senator had to be from the same party as the deceased or departing senator. But when Democrat Bob Bartlett died that year, Republican Gov. Wally Hickel wanted to appoint a Republican, so the Legislature repealed the rule. The appointee was Stevens, who later won a special election in 1970 and has held the seat since.
In 1998, the Legislature put the same-party rule back, ensuring that Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles would have to appoint a Republican if the Stevens or Frank Murkowski seats came open.
In 2002, the Republican Legislature changed the law again so Knowles could not name Murkowski's successor if Murkowski won the governor's race.
Murkowski won and got to name his successor. He chose his daughter, Lisa, touching off a furor. By 2004, with signatures rolling in on an initiative petition, the Legislature changed the law to require a prompt special election unless a vacancy occurs within 60 days of a regular election. But the Legislature allowed the governor to appoint someone to keep the seat warm until that election."
http://www.adn.com/ted-stevens/story/569836.html
WV: shlessu
Nate just got quoted by Keith Olbermann re: dispelling rumors of new/AA voters causing Prop 8 to pass in California.
Pesky things, those facts.
I haven't seen it in any of the past several threads, but it's politically relevant, so I'll put it here in lieu of an appropriate thread.
PA's Lt. Governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, passed away this evening of neuroendocrine cancer. Sad in and of itself, but it also has political implications. Her replacement as Lt. Governor is Senate President Pro Tempore Joseph Scarnati, a Republican, thereby making it unlikely that Rendell leaves office in advance of his term ending in 2010.
Yes, congrats, Nate, on being mentioned in Keith's Worst Persons segment. :)
Nate said that there was only a 56% chance of Dems controlling 58 Senate seats.
Guess Nate was wrong!!!
:)
Can you guys imagine if Begich just barely wins in Alaska and Franken barely wins Minnesota the Republicans will be screaming that the Democrats stole the election and it's all ACOR's fault. There probably aren't any ACOR operations in Alaska anyway, but that won't matter :-).
For the first time in eight years I don't care what they think. I didn't watch Fox News for eight years. Straight up. If it was on somewhere I left.
I was in the bar across from my work getting lunch today and Fox was on, and I realized what they think isn't worth a wet fart. So I watched. They frothed around about how Obama was going to learn he couldn't just tax the rich to pay for this bailout (no explanation given).
They went to commercial and advertised some Fox thing called "television and the presidency" and showed a preview of a "monicagate" episode. They are going back 10 fucking years to find something to be happy about.
On PA:
Sorry about the Lt Gov's death.
Did the GOP retain control of the State Sen after the elections? And if they didn't, does the new Dem Sen leader take the position?
OK, got my PA answer.
How in the world did the PA GOP end up with 30 of the 50 Senate seats?
Makes Obama's 55% victory even more impressive.
SHERWICK:
First of all, you can't be proven "wrong" when you predict the probability of something happening, it's just a probabilty, not a guarantee one event or another will occur. Secondly, 56%>50%, which means Nate predicted Dems were more likely than not to control at least 58 seats. If anything, this makes his prediction look BETTER.
Can you guys imagine if Begich just barely wins in Alaska and Franken barely wins Minnesota the Republicans will be screaming that the Democrats stole the election and it's all ACOR's fault. There probably aren't any ACOR operations in Alaska anyway, but that won't matter :-).
They already are saying those things. Look at the freeptards.
Hell, they're even saying OBAMA stole the election. These are the same guys who defend Bush 2000. LMFAO
"Alaska is no stranger to goalpost shifting ... if there's anything that's right on the money, it is: the Barracuda will attempt to exploit any opportunity -- for shlessu"
Good god, that's a corrupt system. The next Democrat that gets the chance should chance the system, and put it into the constitution so it can't be changed again.
Is blogger screwed?
Matt W said...
We should be getting another AK update as 5pm AK time approaches...
It's now 5:32 in Alaska. Any chance on getting more info today? The Alaska election result website hasn't changed since 3:30 AST.
Rachel Maddow just teased about up to the second results which of course she didn't report.
bobnsj,
Yes, there should be another update today.
I am SHOCKED - SHOCKED that the State of Alaska would be later than expected with this update.
BTW, Nate and 538 was mentioned in a WaPo blog post related to the AK Stevens-Begich race:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/11/alaska_senate_count_the_votes.html?hpid=topnews
Thank goodness Stevens will lose. I don't care what the current law is in Alaska, there is nothing that says the Alaskan legislature couldn't quickly change the law so that Sarah could take Stevens place.
Looking ahead being Gov of Alaska will probably be a very different and much more difficult job with oil below $60 a barrel than it was with oil above $100 per barrel. If she remains Gov Palin will catch a lot of heat and see her popularity plummet in her home state. She would be much better off as a Senator (and it pays better too).
Hmm. Do you think she knows that the Senate isn't a good place from which to run? That's a more savvy observation than she's normally credited with making, and whatever handlers she's listening to might not have thought to point it out.
I think that she knows instinctively that being the one candidate in the race with "executive experience" was a major plus for her, but that 2 years of being governor plus 6 years as a mayor of a backwater town was pretty light. She'd be better served by staying in office and getting reelected in two years. And start paying attention to world events or at least buy a world atlas so she can see what countries are in North America.
I suspect that even she realizes now that she was out of her league this time around. Her best chance to recover is to spend some more time teeing off against minor league pitching (ie, the Alaska press) before taking on the Washington press corps again.
On changing the Alaskan Senate vacancy law:
1) I thought it was changed by a state constitutional amendment; that would limit and probably eliminate the chance that the legislature could change things
2) She has as many if not more GOP enemies in the legislature (although maybe they'd like to get rid of her)
3) If the law changed, then the only way she'd become governor would be by arranging to appoint herself, thus likely guaranteeing her defeat in an election to fill the remainder of the term.
Looking ahead being Gov of Alaska will probably be a very different and much more difficult job with oil below $60 a barrel than it was with oil above $100 per barrel.
Just as the increase to $147 was a market overreaction, so has the decrease to below $60. Given the relative inelasticity of price demand for petroleum, even in a pro-longed global recession $60 is probably too low--we'll regress back toward the longterm trend of $70-90 by the end of the year. Incidentally, OPEC will cut production to maintain oil in the $70-90 range (Saudia Arabia or Russia could practically do it unilaterally). Moreover, a $1T/yr budget deficit will ensure that the USD weakens indefinitely, which will further drive up the nominal price of oil (a good chunk of its decline the past few months is owed to other currencies softening faster than the USD, but that's unsustainable in the longterm).
Walt,
The trade deficit has a much bigger influence on the strength of the dollar, than does the budget deficit. Further, there are several indications that the dollar will hold or even strengthen against other major currencies in the short to mid term future largely because of a reduction in the functional monetary supply due to the credit crisis.
Oil will be volatile, though I agree we are probably near a bottom
"FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff."
If y’all make it down to our neck of the woods, Sean, be sure to stop by. If it’s a Saturday morning I’ll take you by the local McDonald’s, of all places, where the old time politicos hang out while a dozen or so old time musicians serenade the breakfast crowd with “Will the Circle be Unbroken” and “Rocky Top”.
Anyone who professes to know how things will turn out in Georgia is blowing smoke. Anything can happen in a run-off. We’re in bright red Floyd County, but I’m hopeful we can fire up folks with memories of what Saxby Shameless did six years ago. Often the “aginners” win the run-off ‘cause they are mad enough to get out to the polls. I hope I’m not the only one mad enough.
It’s turn out, pure and simple. If Jim Martin can harness the Obama turnout aparatus, he’ll win. I hope the Marttin folks can persuade folks all over to help call every sympathetic voter relentlessly till they get to the polls!
I actually care more about defeating Saxby than getting vote 60.
According to The Anchorage Daily News Alaska needs oil at or above $75 to balance its budget, otherwise cuts will be needed. While I agree that oil will be more likely to go up rather than down it would not be difficult to imagine $70 oil for some time with serious consequences for Alaska (And the Senator job still pays more:-))
The Wall Street Journal has an article on-line which suggests that the recount in Minnesota is election stealing on behalf of the Franken campaign. Much of the article reads like it comes from a conservative/Republican bias. However, I found this paragraph compelling, and if it is true, it suggests that Coleman is being cheated:
"Up in Two Harbors, another liberal outpost, Mr. Franken picked up an additional 246 votes. In Partridge Township, he racked up another 100. Election officials in both places claim they initially miscommunicated the numbers. Odd, because in the Two Harbors precinct, none of the other contests recorded any changes in their vote totals."
In other words, every single overvote and undervote and computer error affected only the senate race and not one affected any other election contest on that ballot. As Nate Silver might say, the odds of that happening are long -- as long as a steroidal home run in 1998 by Mark McGwire.
This comes from a statistician described as a conservative in the piece:
"(John) Lott notes that Mr. Franken's 'new' votes equal more than all the changes for all the precincts in the entire state for the Presidential, Congressional and statehouse races combined (482 votes)."
If the Minnesota recount has found as many uncounted votes as it has in the senate race, why would all of the other contests in the state be absent those adjustments? It's entirely possible the other contests had lower rates of uncounted votes, but it seems strange that a majority came from one race in a long ballot.
Rich, have you considered the possibility that to save time and money they are not worrying about the totals in races that were decisive (e.g. the presidential race). That would explain the reason for only one of the races changing as it has.
The WSJ is really clutching at straws -- it's all going to a manual recount anyway, so these minor changes don't matter one jot.
We can disagree about whether the US Senate is Palin's best strategy. We cannot disagree about Palin's intentions to run for that seat. In an interview just today, Palin as much as declared her intent to run for the seat.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/12/palin-back-in-the-lower-4_n_143415.html
If Stevens wins, Stevens will be booted and Palin will run for his seat. For those who question why she's so set on being in the Senate when so few Senators make it to the white house, the answer is simple, MONEY.
Completely aside from the rational that being in Washington keeps her in the spotlight, my belief is that the biggest reason Palin wants the Senate seat is money, money, money.
Her current job as Alaska Governor prohibits her (by law) from making *any* money on side jobs like writing books or taking speaking fees. The Senate has FAR fewer restrictions.
The time for Palin to cash in is NOW. By staying as Governor, Palin is leaving a whole LOT of money on the table. This is not campaign money, she's leaving real money, personal money, money she could spend however she liked. (Even at Neiman Marcus).
The Senate seat would give Palin a plausibly deniable justification for abandoning her job as Governor. Absent a run for that seat, she's STUCK in Alaska for years.
If Stevens loses, she can't just quit the Governor's mansion without reason. Some suggest she could try to push back against the Alaska ethics laws and sign book deals anyway. Such moves would bring immediate investigations and brand new ethics charges. She'd soon be seen as a typical corrupt Alaska politician.
I think a Stevens loss hits Palin with a blow almost as crushing as the one she took last Tuesday. Maybe more so, as it's been months since she had any realistic expectation of actually winning the Presidential race. The cards of the Stevens race were all turning her way, things were looking up, until today.
Thank god Beigch looks to be closing, nailing shut, and barring that door for her. A Stevens loss will be a massive setback for Palin, MASSIVE.
All this talk about Palin running for the Senate is just ridiculous I think. If Palin knows anything, she knows how to fight and win (she beat an incumbent Governor in the Primaries). It was unusual that the major candidates this year were from the Senate, usually they are governors (i.e. Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter). She will be much better positioned to become president in 2012 (or if she is going to show some good political instinct 2016 after a moderately successful Obama administration) as a governor in a such an unknown incredibly corrupt state that gets little national attention then a Senator. I mean just look at this Senate race or the stuff the last few governors were doing to see how much attention Alaska gets.
Really though, we will learn a lot about her political instinct if a special election does occur.
""Up in Two Harbors, another liberal outpost, Mr. Franken picked up an additional 246 votes. In Partridge Township, he racked up another 100. Election officials in both places claim they initially miscommunicated the numbers. Odd, because in the Two Harbors precinct, none of the other contests recorded any changes in their vote totals."
In other words, every single overvote and undervote and computer error affected only the senate race and not one affected any other election contest on that ballot. As Nate Silver might say, the odds of that happening are long -- as long as a steroidal home run in 1998 by Mark McGwire."
I thought that the problem wasn't with over/undervotes, but that they actually recorded the number incorrectly when reporting. I could be wrong about that, and I admit I haven't been paying much attention to MN, but that was what I seem to recall, and it explains why the disparity was such a round number.
Greg asks: How many votes need to separate the candidates to avoid triggering an automatic recount (or runoff), and what are the odds that the remaining uncounted ballots will put Begich over that magic number?
I can't answer the second part, but as to the first, a recount is automatic (and paid for by the state) if less than .5% separates the two candidates. In this case, that's about 500 votes. Either party can request a recount with a wider margin but would have to pay for it themselves, as I understand it.
Amazing - the concern trolls still find stuff to get concerned about, a week after the election. "Oh noes! The WSJ opinion page, that bastion of investigative excellence, thinks something fishy is going on in Minnesota! We must worry that they might be right!"
That "article", such as it is, reeks of desperation, my friend. It's a lame attempt to work the refs, and have a ready-made excuse for failure when Coleman comes up short, which he probably will.
Rich, as for those northern Minnesota precincts, I've lived up there and a lot of the ballots are still hand counted and transcribed. I very much doubt there's any hanky panky going on though, having witnessed the process myself in previous elections. The +100 vote change in Mountain Iron precinct one, for example, was entirely consistent with their past voting patterns even allowing that the Barkley effect was mostly at the expense of Franken. There's a pretty consistent pattern all across northern Minnesota and that's for Coleman's numbers to run only about one to two percent behind McCain but for Franken to run about 10 to 12 behind Obama.
This area is basically labor union country that is skeptical of big city liberals; they tend to like Franken because he's allied himself with the labor rather than the liberal wing of the party but a lot of Democrats on both the moderate and liberal end of the party were really turned off by the tone of the campaign on both sides and dealt with it by voting for Barkley. Coleman did a much better job of holding his base, even judging by Two Harbors' revised numbers.
The current numbers showing for Two Harbors in all four precincts are very consistent with the pattern across the rest of northeastern Minnesota. The extra 246 votes you refer to would, if deducted in any of the four precincts in Two Harbors, produce a ridiculously low Franken result for Senate -- go and look at the currently reported data for yourself and compare with presidential data, because it's all available, right down to the precincts, right here. http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/ElecRslts.asp?CtyCd=38&M=P&CtyNm=Lake
Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got.
Free pass? Reverend Wright? Really? There was plenty of negative reporting about Obama for those willing not to screen out the information that might disprove one's point.
The fact that Palin got treated harshly is not evidence of a double standard. What hurt her most was not the rumors about irrelevant matters that were mostly not picked up by the media. What hurt her was her inability to answer some very basic policy questions and even basic inquiries concerning her own approach to government. Really, how can she completely fail to name a single news sources she relies on?
If you're a public figure and don't come across as knowing stuff, expect a tough time. It looks like Obama knows stuff. It looks like Palin doesn't. That's not a double standard; that's reporting. It would be a double standard to treat people as equally knowledgeable if the facts show that they are not.
The Repubs in MN are just blowing smoke, trying to create an atmosphere of mistrust. No "change" thus far has had anything to do with overvotes, undervotes, computer error, or anything like that. It's just simply the standard operating procedure where the precincts double check their figures to correct transposed digits, and mistaken call-ins to the secretary of state, such as someone calling in 406 votes for Franken instead of 506. The calls come in fast and furious on Tuesday night from 4000 precincts, who have all just worked a 15-hour day. It's no wonder there are adjustments; it happens EVERY year.
One story making the rounds is that of 32 ballots that mysteriously APPEARED after being left in someone's car. Even the WSJ has reported this. Here's a good article debunking this particular smear: Link
"OK, got my PA answer.
How in the world did the PA GOP end up with 30 of the 50 Senate seats?
Makes Obama's 55% victory even more impressive."
That is correct but there is going to be one special election since a Dead Man won in the 29th district.
"FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff."
What, no love for California District 4? We've got a re-count going (as mandated by the emergency legislation our wonderful SoS Debra Bowen got passed), and Tom McClintock is all lawyered up to try to keep Charlie Brown from being seated.
Carpetbagger McClintock, incidentally, beat another carpetbagger, Doug Ose, by claiming to be "The REAL Conservative". R's beat D's by 2-to-1 margins around here, and Obama finished down 11 points, so Brown has already accomplished something fully as remarkable as Martin in Georgia.
The trade deficit has a much bigger influence on the strength of the dollar, than does the budget deficit.
That rule of thumb was true when the trade deficit was several times the size of federal budget deficit (in real dollars as well as a share of GDP). For the next five years, the opposite will be true. We're looking at a trade deficit of about $800B right now, while the federal deficit will exceed $1T, possibly higher depending on exactly what sort of stimulus is implemented.
Further, there are several indications that the dollar will hold or even strengthen against other major currencies in the short to mid term future largely because of a reduction in the functional monetary supply due to the credit crisis.
I don't agree with that projection. It's hard to discuss exactly what "indications" you are referring to when none are specified. But it would surprise me greatly if the USD continues to strengthen over the next 5 years.
Anyone know if they are done counting up there for the day? Hasn't updated in a few hours.
[Must not reload the Alaska division of elections webpage, must not reload ...]
rich, you are confusing a canvas with a recount. the extra votes for Franken are NOT a recount of undervotes and overvotes. It is simply a check of the original vote. For the extra 100 votes, it is my understanding that the original votes were simply misreported as 100 fewer votes than Franken actually had. Thus, for example, he was originally reported with say 24 votes from a precint when he actually had 124 votes from that precinct. Easy enough to see how one precinct out of hundreds could make a mistake. Also, with paper ballots to re-check and the vote counts of other elections, it would be difficult if not impossible to simply make up those numbers without being caught. It is also hardly surprising that a mathmatical error in the Senate vote total does not affect the vote total in other races. In fact, just the opposite since it was a math error, not recounting of undervotes or overvotes.
Another answer to Rich Rifkin's query was noted when John Hinderaker, member of the conservative Powerline blog who have been overbarking as watchdogs, appeared on Hannity & Colmes last night. The Dem guest noted his entry in his blog here:
JOHN adds: Based on my own research, I'm convinced
that the two big increases in Franken's total that have been clearly reported on
--Mountain Iron Precinct 1 and Partridge Township--are legitimate." (emp
hasis mine)
I had one of them confused with Buhl's late reporting---can anyone clarify whether Buhl's count was included in the "original margin of 725" that everyone quotes?
Running for senate is a good idea, since she obviously has presidential aspirations.
When you run as a Governor, people accuse you of not having foreign policy experience. When you run as a Senator, you're accused of having no executive experience.
If you're a former Governor and sitting Senator, you don't have to worry as much about either charge.
Daniel said:
"All this talk about Palin running for the Senate is just ridiculous I think."
It's not ridiculous if Palin says it's not.
When asked today about running for Stevens Senate seat, Palin said:
"I would certainly consider that"
She said that TODAY. She definitely wants the seat!
You may disagree with Palin's logic (so would a lot of other people) but Palin is the one who'll make this decision. She's given other indications strongly suggesting at her desire for the seat.
I fully agree that it doesn't make a lot of sense for most would-be-Presidents to go to the Senate, but Palin is in a unique position. She's stuck in Alaska, way, way, way out of of the media spotlight. A few more months in Alaska and she could easily be forgotten by the press.
As I pointed out above, her other major rationale for going to the Senate is money. If she stays as Governor, she will leave 10 or more million dollars on the table. She's popular now, the time for her to cash in is now, she has to use it or lose it.
Moving to the Senate would allow her to cash in on all her publicity, something she is prohibited BY LAW from doing as Alaska Governor.
Smart or not, Palin wants Stevens seat, there's no denying it. What this does indicate is that Palin's probably a lot more interested in being rich and popular than being President. Or maybe she's just a lot smarter than I think she is and is being completely realistic about her exceedingly remote chances of ever being elected President.
Waiting for Stevens to make good on his commitment to save the taxpayers money by withdrawing from the recount...
Day 1 and counting...
If Palin really wants the seat, expect Begich to suddenly fall behind. The corrupt Alaskan machine will spend the next week shredding Begich ballots.
People in 1976 thought that Ronald Reagan was a lightweight, but the die hard republican loved him. After losing the primaries to the man that PARDONED NIXON, people wrote him off and said he would never be a force in national politics.
Never underestimate a natural politician's ability to reinvent themselves. In four years, if Sarah Plain stops being Bible Spice and can actually answer, you know, questions, in the pattern of a true GOP-er, the press will fawn over her. They will pronounce her rehabilitated and she we wink and smile while I puke.
She is a vile politician that is a poor attack dog without the ability to describe her position or the position of her ticket. But this is the current version. Sarah Palin 2.0 might get some play.
Just something to consider when you dismiss anyone. From someone that wants her to go back to Alaska and stop being on MSNBC.
1sunnyday -
Also .. this is Alaska we're talking about. Alaska is a small state in many ways, and it gets a lot of Federal funds.
If you think about it in terms of power per capita, Senator from Alaska is a pretty plum position.
I have read that in AK, an automatic recount is only triggered if the votes are exactly the same. However, candidates, or a group of 10 citizens can petition for a recount if the votes are within one half of one percentage point of each other. That's about 1500 votes I think. At the rate Begich is gaining votes, he may win AND avoid any recount. It will be interesting.
In other words, every single overvote and undervote and computer error affected only the senate race and not one affected any other election contest on that ballot. As Nate Silver might say, the odds of that happening are long -- as long as a steroidal home run in 1998 by Mark McGwire.
No, that's not what the article says at all. It says "Election officials in both places claim they initially miscommunicated the numbers." That is, it's not a bunch of dribs and drabs that all went in the same direction, it's a transcription error from two precincts, so two numbers went in the same direction.
Furthermore, it's not a news article in the WSJ, it's an opinion piece, and the WSJ opinion pages have long been extremely right-wing. That would explain why it reads like a Republican propaganda piece. The op-ed contains numerous outright falsehoods and misrepresentations of Minnesota election law, which probably tells you all you need to know about whether its compelling-sounding statements are true.
The difference, it seems to me, between Reagan 76 and Palin 08 is the media climate. While the media were certainly emboldened by Woodward and Bernstien in 76 (lots of investigative stuff etc) there was not the pervasive media (24 hr news, blogging etc) that we have now. I think it will be much harder for Palin to make any run in 12.
I agree that Palin is a natural politician who could reinvent herself and be a media darling. Her big problem, however, is that she appeals to a shrinking minority, the rightywingnuts. If she holds to those positions, she can't attract independents enough to win. If she moves to the center, her base will turn against her as a flip-flopper and traitor. In none of her "exclusive" interviews are the questioners asking her about issues like abortion, stem-cell research and her religiosity, i.e., exorcism.
I have no idea what the future holds. Personally, I do not understand the fascination the GOP has with Bible Spice. However, I do recognize its significance. Whether she can capitalize on it, or get assistance to do the same, is beyond my pay-grade.
Honestly, who would have thought that the gold-standard in negative campaigning would have occured between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams?
I pray the the 24 hour news cycle and bloggers (in their parents' basements, wearing pajamas) can overcome. However, SHE brought the people out to the rallies and some 46% of the voters did not think she disqualified her ticket.
Time for me to go to sleep. Else, I will be blogging in MY PJs.
;)
Walt,
If we run a 1 trillion plus budget deficit for the next 5 years that will certainly have a severe impact on the dollars relative strength as well as almost every other aspect of our economy. I would argue that that level is unsustainable and will not actually come to pass. Maybe a year or two, but that is about the limit.
As far as the 5 year forex indicators you need to put the dollar back into a relative strength and not treat it as an absolute strengthening or weakening. Most indications suggest that the other major economies are facing as great of a challenge as is the US. So if you think the dollar is going to weaken I have to ask, against what other currency? The Euro, maybe a little, but probably not; The Pound, doubtful; Yen, no; Juan, depends on policy; Swiss Francs, yeah maybe. In sum, because of the forecast economic strength in most major economies, I think the dollar looks like a reasonably good mid term move.
As all this has to do with the price of oil (as was your original suggestion) Oil is dollar priced, but I think it is a tough argument to make that the dollar is going to be falling fast enough to be a main factor in the oil futures markets real supply and demand will play a much bigger role, a lot of traders are also going to be gun shy chasing a bubble the second time around.
It sounds reasonable, especially since there is a lot of speculation that the falling dollar over the last year had a lot to do with the price spike in Oil, but in the full context of the global economy I think that is unlikely to be a driving factor going forward.
Regardless, oil is going to be volatile and governments that depend on oil revenue will face a turbulent future.
If Sarah Palin had intelligence and knowledge instead of instincts she would know that it will be dangerous to expose her ignorance in the Senate. If it goes that far, I'd say bring it on, all good for the Dems.
But I'm thrilled about Begich and think he's likely, so that's the best.
I think we ought to stop this 60 stuff. Lots of good Republicans out there (Hagel) and better to strip leadership from Lieberman who appears to have been letting Homeland Security rob us blind. I don't care if he's ineffective or corrupt, no political calculation is worth keeping him in office. Let him decide if he wants to be a Dem or Pug, some of his positions are OK and he can do not harm either place.
I think I might reverse my earlier position regarding another AK update. Obviously my 5pm AK time prediction was wrong, and now I think we may have all we are going to get today. They have counted a little more than 40,000 ballots today, and they only had planned to count like 50,000 so this may be it.
I am sure though they will update as soon as I post this!
matt w -- I think you're right, done for the day.
It still seems strange that they would knock off at 3:30.
susan said...
I think we ought to stop this 60 stuff. Lots of good Republicans out there (Hagel)
Hagel retired and didn't run for reelection last week.
FYI: Begich last traded on Intrade at 95.0, while Stevens traded at 3.5.
Well Nate looks like you. and 538 is going to avoid the severe embarassment of a candidate that you said had a 100% chance of winning going down in defeat.
Still this should be a very important lesson to you though, and you should make it much harder for a candidate to have a 100% chance of winning in your model. Otherwise you could end up losing a lot of credibility, and end up with major egg on your face like you almost ended up with because of this race.
Enough about Palin.
Kos commenter claims Begich is up 500-something votes with 12K left to count, FYI
Still this should be a very important lesson to you though, and you should make it much harder for a candidate to have a 100% chance of winning in your model. Otherwise you could end up losing a lot of credibility, and end up with major egg on your face like you almost ended up with because of this race.
The model listens to the polls. The polls all showed Begich with big leads. Lop a felony conviction on top of that, and any sane person would think the other guy will win for sure. Using your logic, Nate shouldn't have been so quick to say McCain has a 100% chance of winning in Utah, because after all, something incredibly unexpected could happen and Obama could win.
You'd think that would be obvious dsimon.
The whole deal with her was, she thought she could somehow bluff or charm her way through the national election with the help of the party's campaign henchmen.
Unfortunately, for her and the Republican machine, Obama was not their typical arch specimen, and he didn't come with a reliable disassembly manual. To make matters worse, she also didn't give those guys a lot to work with. In addition, this is the year 2008, and we are thus far in the digital age that it is much more difficult to mandate where, what kind and how far people can go or interact to obtain any kind of information. Especially with the information literally at the fingertip of anyone with access to web-enabled computer.
I mean, one day she saying she's a feminist. The next, she's stating she does not want to be labeled, so, she's does not consider herself to be one.
Yesterday, regarding the ominous Ted Stevens vacancy, she said "I'm not planning on that," .... "I'm not planning on it because I think the people of Alaska will best be served with me as their governor making sure that we are prudently spending the tax dollars." But today, it is now, "if it were acknowledged up there that I could be put to better use for my state in the U.S. Senate, I would certainly consider that but that would take a special election and everything else." ... I guess in her defense, she's slept somewhat within the last 24hrs. LOL!
If she wants to run for the Senate seat, it will be a catastrophic mistake for her 2012 or 2016 POTUS aspirations. Her pick for VP has clearly demonstrated her lack of the most rudimentary knowledge of profound issues regarding public policy, civics and might I add foreign policy. She has not distinguished herself in any relevant area of governance, besides talking folksy and throwing out words like maverick, reformer, earmarks, real Americans etc.
But then again, it shows what the Republicans think the POTUS position is: something just about anyone can "plough right on through" or as she's probably thinking but not saying, B.S. her way through ... seriously, is this some kind of joke. Next thing you know, folks like, Joe the fake plumber are thinking to themselves, they might have a shot at the highest executive post in the world. I hope this indescribably bad tale is nipped in the bud for good.
I'd say stick a fork in her ... she done.
It's interesting that the Alaska Senate is the only instance where Nate explicitly made a subjective determination to override the model. Recall that he threw out all of the pre-conviction polls in calculating the odds. It would be interesting to see what the model would have predicted without Nate having put his thumb on the scales. Given the extra weight to more recent polls, it certainly would have still favored Begich, but probably by a much smaller, and more accurate, margin.
If President Obama doesn't publicly recognize and applaud the work of FiveThirtyEight by Iowa 2011, he's a heel.
@Dennis580
I think it is absurd to suggest that Nate would end up with egg on his face if the people of Alaska voted for a FELON!
There would have been culpability to give to the pollsters, who obviously had trouble sampling the state (don't blame Nate, he works with what he gets) And there would have been a lot of egg on the faces of Alaskan voters.
Nate absolutely rocked on the way is model used raw data to make predictions so just go away with your pety little 100% complaints.
"This might be a good time to mention to readers that FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff."
Why not Alaska???
Shannyn Moore at Huff Post reports that the DOE is done for the day and Begich is 836 votes ahead. She's done the best reporting I've seen on the Alaska situation, so I believe she's probably right.
I know I'll sound stupid for saying this, but Stevens isn't dead yet. He still has his appeal and from what I've read, he has a pretty firm case for getting evidence thrown out for gov. misconduct. Stevens is a good guy I think and I hope he gets reelected
@Phil
Oops, thanks! Consider him an exemplar; I know there are a few out there. I stand by my argument nonetheless. Accepting incompetence or corruption for the sake of a majority is a slippery slope and we've had too much of it with DeLay, Grover Norquist, et al. Imitation would be flattery; let's not go there.
Alaska (7:33pm update)
Begich: 132196
Stevns: 131382
Total counted: 282383
@Larry: Yup---the official update was posted 5 minutes after midnight ET, and shows
Begich 132,196
Stevens 131,382
difference 814.
If () this was from about half the remaining votes, and () the uncounted half are from areas favoring Begich even more, then the difference may grow by another 4,000+ and thus pass 5,000, for about a 2% margin of victory. That would start to get in the ballpark of the polls---especially if the weather depressed turnout in the outlying non-GOP-stronghold areas.
WV "jambac"---goes a little with my Marley "I-Rasta" above, and quite the opposite weather!
NEW NUMBERS:
Begich 132196
Stevens 131382
Begich is up 814 votes!!!
Alaska (7:33pm update)
Begich: 132196 (46.81%)
Stevns: 131382 (46.53%)
Total counted: 282383
Margin: Begich +814 (0.28%)
Begich needs to increas his 814 vote lead by about 600-700 to avoid a recount if 0.5% is the trigger under Alaska law for an automatic recount.
Put up a date time we'll meet at the Loon in downtown Minneapolis, I'll even buy the 3 of you each a beer!
1sunnyday,
I think that is a darn good idea. Another thought came to me while reading your comments. Sarah wouldn't care about being at the bottom of the Senate totem pole. She could do very little except bills that won't go anywhere to show the base she will fight for them, talk show appearances, and sit by while a ghost writer does her book.
Personally I think Andrew Sullivan has a better perspective on Palin than Paglia. It became quite obvious early on that whatever her IQ, she hadn't used it enough to become VP, let alone POTUS. I could have discussed foreign policy, economics, health care and the economy better than she did. (I could have cited all the papers I read regularly on line, the three books I'm reading and at least a half dozen I've read in the past 6 months) And there is no way I am qualified to be even a Congress person. Doesn't have time to read because of all the Kids?. Wow, what a concept.
As Sullivan points out, the worst part was the media complicity in the farce. Not that we are shocked or anything.
Ginny,
I used to have a dose of respect for Sullivan when he came out for Bush and was willing to embrace the intellectual and political superiority of conservatism. it showed a apacity for something oither than relfexive thought.
What completely soured me on him was his spreading of the rumors that Trig was actually Bristol's baby that first weekend of Palin's selection. That sort of rumor-mongering has no place in hgiher echelons of poltical discourse and was particularly shocking coming from the Editor of The Atlantic.
That the story was picked up and run by MSNBC, CNN, the NYTs and other maintream outlets was in fact "the worst part" of "media complicity in the farce". That you were left with the impression that Palin is a dolt is testament to the lengths that they went to to destory her.
That you would be willing to swallow it whole simply betrays your bias.
" PeteKent said...
Ginny,
Palin is a dolt."
PeteKent, I agree with you.
Palin is a dolt.
Thank you.
Sherwick.
What completely soured me on him was his spreading of the rumors that Trig was actually Bristol's baby that first weekend of Palin's selection. That sort of rumor-mongering has no place in hgiher echelons of poltical discourse and was particularly shocking coming from the Editor of The Atlantic.
First he's not "the Editor." He's one of many "Senior Editors."
http://www.theatlantic.com/a/masthead.mhtml
Second, his point (at least these days) is not about "who is the mommy?" His point is that all these rumors could easily be disproved if Palin's medical records were released, which is fairly standard procedure for major party candidates running for president and vice president. And that her campaign said records would be released weeks ago. And that they haven't been (even though Palin seems to assert that they have).
At this point, the issue not about rumor-mongering. It's about basic information about our public officials running for our highest national offices. Palin could have and still can dispel the rumors and expose Sullivan for a fraud with a snap of the fingers. Since she could do so, I can understand Sullivan wondering why she doesn't.
get motivatie
http://www.genuinedreams.do.am
PeteKent
For the sake of leaving a response should anyone return to this thread.
Your comments are an excellent example of how closed minded people fail to recognize the advantage of listening to the viewpoints of people you have differences of opinion with. Sullivan comes up with many things I don't agree with - especially the idea that Bush's brand of conservatism is intellectually and politcally superior to anything.
The Trig controversy for me had a more important aspect that I thought was poorly covered. I'm an RN, in 3 decades I have done a lot of critical care nursing, including some in prenatal. As in women who are hospitalized to control their premature labor as long as possible. I worked with a lot of NICU nurses who had universally learned NICU is a poor answer to prematurity. The fact that Sarah took an airline flight TO Texas at that point of an at risk pregnancy (her age + multiple pregnancies +Trig's Downs Syndrome) was the first HUH?. To have ignored the possible leaking of amniotic fluid (It takes a very simple and quick test to verify it. PlusTrig could have been checked by fetal monitoring.) was unbelievably irresponsible. Then she flies back to Alaska. A lot of my critical care work is cardiovascular. That system is VERY pressure based and sensitive to the barometric changes in flight or changing altitude enough (we get a lot of flatlanders touring the CO Rockies who develop cardio-pulmonary problems above 7000 feet). Just to be sure you connect these dots: pregnancy places a significant burden on the heart and vascular system, the risks involved are a big reason that late term abortions do have a place in medical care to the mother. Then she drives PAST the hospital with the state's highest level NICU (I worked in that hospital from '84-92) 45 minutes to a local hospital that does not have any form of NICU so a premie needing such a facility would have needed to be medivaced back to Anchorage. That was my WHY would you do this unless... consideration. I didn't particularly care except for the example she set and was actually praised for getting on the plane in labor. I emailed the American Association of Obs and Gyns suggesting they might want to issue a statement on how risky this was.
As far as my being influenced by the MSM on that - I never read their stuff. I ran across the story at dKos and rebuked the investigation there. I get my news and information primarily from the internet - mostly because I can chase down anything I question immediately, either from the link or Google.
I also read a lot and the highly referenced books I choose are based as much as possible on recomendations from experts, and if political bias is possible, I look for recommendations from both sides.
I was raised in the Unitarian Church which does not indoctrinate, it teaches thinking and a responsible search for truth and meaning. My father, a PhD in physical chemistry worked R&D in building materials, developing 3 patented products during his career. R&D is not ivory tower, it's competitive. His brother, with an MS in Physics, was part of the Johns Hopkins' team that developed the Polaris, Poseiden and Trident missles for the nuclear subs. Used to fly all over the world to meet the subs when they came into port for troubleshooting. Growing up with these two imposing scientific evaluation on just about anything you uttered, not to mention having the incredible woman who raised them living in our house from age 4 to 9, I learned to question, search the facts, look for what is missing and not open my mouth without a lot of confidence in all of those. Oh, time for my standard warning: I have TWO degrees in BS.
I developed my opinion of Sarah's suitability for office by listening to her answer questions and speak. My parents were politically involved and I became very active in AK. I know a lot of the political forces there and the mindset of the Palin type fundies.
In the health care field, you learn to assess the competence of a professional by how quickly, easily, thoroughly and correctly they talk about symptoms, diagnostic testing, diseases and treatments. It works quite as well in politics. People who can take just about any question and answer it well - even if you don't agree with the conclusions- show the breadth and depth of their knowledge base plus their intellectual ability to process the information, come to conclusions and reasonable action plans, are viable candidates for office.
All Sarah could do was talk around the questions - the same way AK GOP candidates usually do, and plenty of others in the lower 48 as well. One of my senators, the GOP one, has been rated among the five worst. No surprise. That potential was clearer than crystal during the campaign I was here for.
Her ability to speak rationally, concisely, and substantively is so poor, it is an embarassment to listen to her.
If you still think I am biased and easily swayed by the mainstream media, I would suggest you check your own perceptual grid. Might also want to read "Lapdogs".
"His point is that all these rumors could easily be disproved if Palin's medical records were released, which is fairly standard procedure for major party candidates running for president and vice president"
Much the same can be said about Obama's Birth Certificate. Why not release the long form.
Ginny: google Occams razor.
PeteKent: Much the same can be said about Obama's Birth Certificate. Why not release the long form.
That doesn't address the point. When a complaint is raised, it's not an answer to say "the other person did it too." That response simply doesn't address the complaint as a matter of simple logic.
Your comment was about Sullivan's criticism about Palin, which you claim was unfair. Your response is not relevant to that issue, and so Sullivan's question remains unanswered: why didn't she just release the records, as the campaign said they would and then didn't? And if they didn't do it, isn't Sullivan's skepticism justified, even if the allegation is eventually shown to be unfounded? How about answering the question at hand?
As for Obama's birth certificate, I haven't followed the issue. But apparently what was released is sufficient to show natural born citizenship. See http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/citizen.asp
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 ,
外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment