For the first time since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Indiana is in the Democratic column.
The polls told us McCain would barely win. The ground game told us Obama would flip it.
Just for kicks:
11.05.2008
Barack Obama Wins Indiana
@ 2:16 AM
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The icing.
Obama's trailing by only a couple hundred in Missouri.
Woohoo! I never thought this was actually possible.
Sweet! My mom has felt like a lone democrat since she moved there. If it weren't the middle of the night I'd call her now
I think NC is blue too.
Aww, and Nate was so close to a perfect score on electoral predictions.
D'oh first state that didn't match the election prediction
Knights of the KKK be damned...
Like I said in the other thread, I hope Gary is rewarded for this. Sure, not a pivotal EC contribution, but they need the help and some federal intervention would be amazing (and totally defensible) pork spending.
To win my two bets I need Obama to get over 350.... Indiana gives him 349.... God freaking damnit North Carolina, what's the hold-up?! Is there any chance for one EV in Nebraska?
Look at Dem gams
Grats, Nate. Your model is going to come pretty damn close.
It felt so good to be part of the voter protection effort in Bloomington. My precinct went 75% Obama. It's sooooo great to have been part of this effort.
Lauren in Indiana, Kristi in Virginia! Who's helping in Missoura?
[wv prerra -- the prerra turned blue today]
That girl is the pic is even more gorgeous than the statewide election result.
Any word on Prop 8?
Can I just say that this was absolutely the place to be on this historic election,
You guys were like 100 percent, and i'll forgive you for that indiana staying tinted red til the last day, you couldn't give away all of the excitement. You guys should think about video next time, i'd much rather watch you guys then uberman.
umm wow at obama being down 400 votes in missouri. i want that blue.
recount if the final 1% doesnt change it. i cant believe it could come down to that little
Obama is only down 400 in MO, but the county left to finish up is down in the bootheel.
Obama wins a mandate, since Bush claimed a win by 2.5% PV was a mandate. I think that the GOP must be nervous over the margins they won by in some states, and of course the gains in the West. Judging by early remarks at this point, it seems that they are adamant in pursuing their ever-rightward course.
The down-tickets were a mixed bag, which also fails to send an unmistakeable message to the Republicans. Musgrave, Pearce, and McCrory failed, but McConnell, Chambliss, and Cornyn held on.
Worst of all, (for me) Bachmann held on and Madia lost. Minnesota failed to gain any House seats for Obama, and by relatively slim margins.
By holding on to the worst of the worst, I fear that the GOP will be emboldened, though they are less powerful on every level. Such is their reasoning.
I would like to thank our excellent hosts for their long hospitality, and also to the many insightful and interesting people that I have had discussions with here for so many months. It is not an exaggeration to say that we have sustained an unprecedented level of discourse here, despite the sporadic efforts of some to disrupt, distract, and demean the conversation.
Nate - I can't stay awake much longer here - what's the story with prop 8??
I was born and raised in Indiana, and this is a freaking miracle. I made calls and knocked on doors.
Indiana is blue. I helped make a miracle.
Goddamn.
Franken? Burner? Prop 8?
North Carolina is 100% reported and Obama has a lead of @ 11,000 votes. The Raleigh News and Observer says Obama will win NC. Of course, a recount will be automatic I think.
Looks like that EV from NE-2 may be a go! The unofficial result at http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf for NE-2 shows Obama 114,212 - McCain 113853.
Holy electoral combustion, Batman! That's a margin of 359 votes!
My friends at 538. BHO shattered my 278-260 number with many close victories in many ed states. I am ecstatically eating my crow which never tasted sooo good.
Todd -- Dole is GONE!
Nice legs. :D
Damn comment eating monster. I just wanted to say a thanks to Nate, Sean, and Brett for the wonderful contributions to this election season. I've got to head to bed so I won't be able to find out what happens in Missouri, nor what happens to the down ballot measures that would actually remove rights from our citizens (Prop 8 for those wondering). At least I can go to sleep with the wonderful thought of Indiana going blue and my favorite picture of the election season staring at me from 538.
Thanks to all and God Bless the United States of America. Makes me damn proud to be a citizen today.
375 - here we come!!!
Thinking of growing up in Indiana as a kid and living with real segregation and thinking things probably never really changed there. I went on to move away and adopted three half African American children/ half Vietnamese myself and never felt comfortable about taking them back to see family, though we did. The KKK still was passing out info on the street in our small town not so far back. This is a wonderful result for me and gives me hope and makes me want to go home again. Sure would love to get Mo. now !
You know, I actually wanted Indiana to go red because I had $70 riding on it...if it weren't for Indiana, my prediction would have been perfect!
Of course, I would not have made my prediction without this site. Thanks for a great season, Nate and Sean and everyone else.
My 54-44-1-1 popular vote prediction was too optimistic, but Obama is coming really close to hitting my 375 EV prediction. (I'm certain NC will go for Obama.)
Come on, Missouri -- squeeze just a few hundred more votes out of Kansas City!!!
@ andrewswift:
It is not looking good for Prop 8. The "Yes" vote is winning 53/47 with 48% counted
To paraphrase our new first lady, Michelle Obama, for the first in my adult life I am proud to live in Indiana.
Anyone wanna see a bunch of demoralized uber-righties?
Check out the comments under the latest post at Americas Right
My favorite was this one:
Tomorrow, my flag flies at half mast. Day after tomorrow, it comes down. Tonight, America began to die.
I am a native of this state, and I never thought I would see the day. I am still in shock. Although you guys thought McCain would win it, I called Indiana a slim win and was correct. So far tonight I haven't missed a single state (fingers crossed).
Thank you 538! Let's go Hoosiers!!!!!
Obama lost in Nebraska's CD-2 by 4,000 votes, so no Electoral Vote. Fairly close, but no cigar.
From here in Calif, Prop 8 is winning 53-47 with 48% of the vote in.
So why isn't IN colored blue yet on the Nate Silver EV map? Can't wait to see that...
I lived for 4 years in Indiana and would never imagine this happening. Nevertheless, it was evident from the moment results started coming in.
madamerica said...
"I lived for 4 years in Indiana and would never imagine this happening."
Went to school there for a year myself. Saw Stevie Wonder live in Indianapolis, then again in Cinci. He announced in Cincinatti that he wouldn't be playing Indianapolis again 'cause some racist thugs attacked some of his band. Today's win there is sweeeeeeeet.
Nate, or someone: what is the threshold for a recount? CNN hasn't called Indiana, though FOX and MSNBC did. I have a feeling it's because the margin between the two candidates is small enough to trigger a recount?
If North Carolina and Missouri are going to have recounts, I would assume that there is a strong chance that Indiana will have one too.
Please let me know with an update on the board sometime tomorrow (um, THIS) morning. Or in an hour, if you're pulling an all-nighter.
Not that it will affect the outcome! Just the margin of EV victory...
P.S. The "called states" map you guys have up there bears me out on this... unless you guys forgot to update it!
My champagne buzz is gone.
Prop 8 is so close that even CNN won't call it--I am guessing because they don't have data from the more liberal precincts.
It would just be the icing on my cake if Cali didn't pass 8. Too much other hate passed tonight.
Let's wrap this up already. Indiana and NC are blue and Montana and Missouri are red. Color them in and let's go to bed.
@el oso, re the sulking righties...
Wow...I think those are the ones down the street from me that keep defacing my property. One guy reshingled his roof to read "McCain 08." I'm hoping he has decent health care benefits.
No fun living a stone's throw from west Texas these last few weeks...
we worked our butts off in indiana, and victory feels so good!
my home state finally does me proud!
To all of the volunteers I worked with this summer, to the organizers who who truly inspired me to make a difference, to the canvassers who turned out on 80 degree days even though the election was still two months out, and to everyone who helped this cause -- thank you. You have no idea how rewarding this night was, and how inspired I am to work every bit as hard now to effect the continued change we need in America.
Also, shouout to everyone in PORTER COUNTY! We did it!!!
Well, Nate. Clearly you've done an absolutely fantastic job predicting this election. Your model seems to have done very well also. Obama held what he held, lost what you said he would definitely lose, and the ones that are very close are the ones you had down as being very close.
Does it get much better than that?
Not without time travel.
I have been saying it for months and months. The momentum on the ground here in the Great State of Indiana has been amazing since the primary. You could sense then that a huge shift was coming and to wake up today, for the first time in my adult life, that my democrate vote in Indiana finally counted for something, is such an amazing feeling!
Can you believe it Hoosiers, our State is BLUE!!!!!!!
There are very few times I can say this and today is one of those times. I'm proud to say that I live in Indiana and have lived here for most of my life. And I'm proud of my state.
We won Indiana!!! I spent the last 3 days volunteering there, away from my home in Chicago. Yesterday I spent 8 hours training volunteers to go door to door to help get out the vote. And it worked! I feel so involved, I feel so empowered, I feel vindicated.
Today I stand tall and proud to be an American.
It's been a long time comin', but Change has finally come.
We won Indiana! As part of Obama's ground-game here in Indiana - I have to say we had an amazing team of volunteers! And my thanks go out to all the hours they spent calling, knocking doors, and leading the way!
Hey! That's *my* local campaign office!
It's still sinking in what has happened, and I'm still not quite sure I believe it.
Nate, thanks for giving this math geek something to chew on all these months. Congrats on a job well done.
I worked these last few days with Obama's Get Out The Vote effort here in Allen County, Indiana. The staffers and volunteers did an amazing, tireless job. An hour before the polls closed yesterday, we were still out canvassing with door hangers just in case someone came home from work, realized they still needed to vote, and got in another vote for Obama. Our county went to McCain, but it was narrow, far narrower than the downticket races here. This is a great moment for Indiana.
Brett Marty (and Lauren from Columbus) won Indiana for Obama.
1. McCain leads slightly in the polls.
2. Brett Marty posts pic of Lauren.
3. 538.com gets record hits.
4. Young men and open-minded young women from around the country flock to Indiana to volunteer.
5. Obama legs out the win, due to ground game.
It looks like Barr may have been Indiana's Nader this year. He pulled 1.1% of the vote, and the Obama-McCain margin was <1%. Assuming, that is, that most of Barr's supporters were pulled from the Republican base.
The reformation/de-klanification of Indiana is completed.
It began in 1923 when Notre Dame students battled the KKK in St. Joe County and threw many of them off of the LaSalle Street bridge in South Bend.
The process would have been completed by RFK in 1968, by both his primary win (in no small part due to his campaigning in South Bend on Dyngus Day) where he turned back the the Southern Racist Wallace Democrats and the status quo - the governor running as Johnson's favorite son, and by his calming speech in Indy when MLK was assassinated.
It's finally been completed by Obama who has rekindled that same RFK coalition of the youth, the educated, african americans, catholics, the children, grandchildren and great grandchildren of immigrants, and the middle class who want the American dream something better for each succeeding generation.
That VA has turned blue (and NC/MO might still) reflects not that the South has reformed itself but the fact that enough of "the coalition" has moved there and transformed those places.
Let the Southern Democratic Party rest in peace, never to rise again.
It's time for that vast still mostly rural african american population in the South. to leave the South behind. Go West, to Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, and Arizona.
And let's get "the overcoming" finished, once and for all.
The people who say they are from Indiana and Can't Believe This Ever Would Happen either (A) don't know what just happened or (B) have some stupid beliefs. I mean, can people who grow up in southern Illinois or western Pennsylvania "not believe it" when those states go blue every four years?!
People in Lake County or Indianapolis or Anderson or Terre Haute or Evansville or the major college towns are Hoosiers too, and the idea that they would go for Obama in big numbers has never been that unbelievable.
The idea that you are a liberal who could not be "proud" to be from any of those places is almost as pathetic as the puffed-up pride of people from the distant western suburbs of Chicago that they are "from Chicago".
As someone who grew up in Indiana, I am proud that the Hoosier state helped in this historic win for Barack Obama!! The ultra-conservatism of the state is a major reason I moved to Maryland in my early 20s.
Now, can anyone find some way to get rid of Kosciusko County? Historically the reddest county in the state, and kept that distinction again yesterday bu voting for McLameBrain by a 68.1 to 30.7% margin.
Oh, and can someone investigate why it takes Randolph County 5 or more hours to count and report the ballots? Last May, Randolph County didn't report any returns until after 11:00 pm, and last night, it was closer to 1:00 am before any reports came in. With less than 30,000 population, you'd think they could count ballots a lot faster!
Well I hope now Obama going to be a good president, but it already looks like he not going to keep any of his promises, Last night in his speech he said, he mite not be able to do anything in the first Year or even in his FIrst term, Tell you this right now,, he will not make a second term,,THinking he can sit on his lazy ass, thinking he just got a job at the DMV and take his time, If something don't happen in 2 years he Dust,
jason b. -
try voting time after time after time KNOWING that your vote does not help your candidate because of the EC. Couple that with absolutely no attention from the candidates and it gets a little old.
Being from Anderson, I should note that the City is home to the International Church of God and also has their university, AU. Very god-fearing, yet unionized. Now those union jobs are ALL GONE. Perfect Storm = pride for us disenfranchsied Hoosier-democrats who doesn't necessarily fear god.
Jason B. -
I've said frequently that Indiana (old home) is red the same way that Minnesota (new home) is blue: by a matter of degrees rather than overwhelmingly. (To our eternal credit, we're not Kentucky.) I mean, let's look at the breakdown: of our senators, one is a Democrat (albeit not an excessively liberal one) and a Republican who's not overwhelmingly locked step-in-step with the party; our House is all over the place, depending on district; and we bounce between Democrat and Republican governors all the time (though, to be fair, that breakdown frequently makes a mockery of one measured by liberal/conservative standards). And you are most certainly right to point out that large swaths of Indiana vote overwhelmingly liberal/Democrat.
However, I must echo other voices on here: I never, EVER would have expected Indiana to go to Barack. Why? Because enough of the state, at least in presidential elections since the 1960s, has always been enough to turn our EC votes towards the Republican candidate, even when they were against more "centrist" Democrats like Clinton. Thus, I thought Obama was going to do well, perhaps even be a contender, but that the state's conservatism - as a whole, mind you - would overcome even the large numbers of new and returning voters. (In that vein, your argument about people from southern Illinois or Western Pennsylvania doesn't make that much sense in light of this strong historical trend.)
Mike in Maryland, maybe you should have moved to Indianapolis instead - Marion County went 64% for Obama.
Matthew, my point about southern IL/western PA is that one's personal experiences of living in a state mean NOTHING with regard to whether the state is going to be blue or red. The people who are ashamed of Indiana from their personal experience of having lived in a conservative area of the state make no sense. If they had lived in a conservative area of Illinois or Pennsylvania, would they be proud that other areas of the state made it so Obama got the EVs? People are basically being ashamed of proud of where state borders happened to be drawn hundreds of years ago. It's embarrassingly daft.
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Time was 2008 and so it begins as written the end times are upon us. All shall love him and revere him as he walks across the land, some say he is the second coming, most are wrong. Time was, Job loss reaches an all time hi, approval ratings begin to plummet. Stimulous package is proposed with such spending as condoms for 7th graders, money for Acorn "proven to have commited fraud, yet this to was swept under the carpet". A new kind of Evil is coming. A party political tries to ensure they will remain in power no matter the costs. Record numbers of unemployed get government assistance and can afford more food than I can someone who is employed. We wait, in the shadows for the signs to come. We will know how to combat this evil, truely it is becoming a rare thing to be an American. The new minority, American....how does that make you feel in a world of liberalism. We wait....our time will come....we wait, Americans all....
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