John Kerry took Clark County by roughly 36,500 votes in 2004, and Barack Obama took it by 123,000 votes and won by 20% there. In Washoe County, Obama was on his way to another crushing victory.
Overall, Obama carried Nevada by a crushing double digit win.
Democrat Dina Titus knocked off incumbent House Republican Jon Porter in NV-03, certainly involving Obama coattails. Jill Derby's race was less certain, with incumbent Dean Heller holding a six point lead but not called.
It wasn't even close in the Nate Silver State.
11.05.2008
Barack Obama Crushed John McCain in Nevada
@ 2:42 AM
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Any news on Prop 8 in California?
Wow, what a validation of Nate's model. He predicted EVERY SINGLE outcome in this presidential race. Unbelievable. His popular vote margin appears to be spot on too.
Sean:
How much of this would attribute the difference to the organization, and how much goes to the changing demographics of the state? I'm assuming it's mostly ground game, but you better than most of us.
Looks like it's going to pass, with a comfortable margin (about 53-47). The No on 8 campaign was a philosophically flawed and poorly run campaign. I tried hard to get them to sell the notion of defending freedom but they continued to pound inequality, something that appeals only to liberals. In other words they were preaching to the choir.
- Nauseous in Sacramento
Apologies. You KNOW better than most of us.
Not if Obama won in Indiana . . . that was leaning McCain in the final model.
On another note, what in the world is going on in the Alaska senate race? I'm seeing Stevens up 3 with 46% of precincts reporting. Somebody tell me that Stevens isn't actually going to win.
What I found most intriguing is that while Obama certainly had larger turnout in some states (like Nevada), the OVERALL turnout was lower in 2008 than in 2004. This is counter to what EVERYONE was predicting.
Whoo hoo! I voted for the winners!
Nate and Co. just ensured themselves of a job in the political arena...if they ever want it. Great work all year, gents!
It looks like Yes on Prop 8 will win...unfortunately...
In Oregon, Merkeley will defeate Smith fairly handily once everything reports, I think. Multonomah, Lane, and Washington counties (3 of the biggest in the state and huge Dem. counties will carry Merkeley).
I live in San Francisco. I know a lot of people who travelled to Nevada to help GOTV. Looks like it worked.
People are celebrating here in SF. There are about 600 people in the street outside my window. Been going at it for about two hours now. Singing the national anthem, chanting "yes we can." A full marching bad just spontaneously showed up a few minutes ago. People are HAPPY!
I'd be out there with them but I have a new born baby!
So much joy.
One anchor said that everyone will remember this moment and, for a change, it's a happy moment as opposed to other moments we remember.
WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?WHATISUPWITHNEBRASKA?
According to the Nebraska Secretary of State, it appears that Obama won NE-02.
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
kos is calling NE-2 for Obama!
Nate:
Any idea how many write-in votes to expect in the GA senate race? The state BOE site makes it clear that the results don't include write-in candidates.
If the current totals were "final" numbers (instead of representing 96% of the precincts), I figure there would need to be ~ 34,000 write-in votes to reduce Chambliss' total to 49.9%.
SteveG, you're making me homesick for SF.
I'm tired and I'm cranky because I missed most of the live-action fun when some volleyball matches I had to cover went long, so I apologize for being crass:
An electoral vote from Nebraska is crosses the official line between electoral embarassment and official teabagging. Obama just teabagged American conservatism. Picture it. I dare you.
The unofficial results DO look good for NE-2. We just want Nate to color it in blue. :)
Franken takes lead in Minnesota!!!
Up by 1000 votes, 96% in!!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#MNS01
Also, Clackamas county in Oregon (pro-Merkely is only 30% in as well.)
McCain up by nearly 3000 in MO.
After your Cobert show, I became a regular visitor to 538. Maybe CNN has the best team on politics, 538 is the best website for elections.
Nice job Nate. You were pretty dead on with the predictions.
There's a DAMN GOOD reason why they call our state the Battle Born state...
... I just said we lost NE-2... :( .
YAY, we win it. ^_^'
Politics are usually a trailing indicator, but tonight is special. Remember this night, because we've boldly set course for a new direction for the country. Sometimes, politics changes everything, and tonight is one of those nights.
On Prop 8 (unfortunately) passing, I think I'm on the same page as Doug B - the No campaign had some fundamental flaws. I feel that they let the Yes side's arguments stay unanswered far too long (demonization of Gavin Newsom, teaching of gay marriage in elementary schools, etc.) I wish they'd taken a page from the Obama campaign book, and hit back hard and fast when the lies appeared.
The Yes side also made effective use of churches (yes, even non-Mormon ones). Well, now it's a state constitutional amendment, and will be difficult if not impossible to remove. I wish it weren't so, but there it is.
Matt said
What I found most intriguing is that while Obama certainly had larger turnout in some states (like Nevada), the OVERALL turnout was lower in 2008 than in 2004. This is counter to what EVERYONE was predicting.
It's possible that early votes haven't been counted yet; I know that's true in GA at least.
I got this link from a previous thread: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/5/12649/6674/253/653696
The best prop 8 source seen to be on cnn. So far, it's not looking good. We worked very hard to GOTV against Prop 8, but it always been an uphill battle against the Utah money machine. It's a sad day when a discrimination amendment can be bought by big money.
Before anyone suggests otherwise, I don't consider a campaign funded by small contributions to be bought, only ones by big money.
WV plike: Utah money smells plike
I just checked the estimates against the actual result (except for Montana, Nevada, and the Nebraska congressional districts, which are still coming in). They're very accurate; most estimates are comfortably well inside the margin of error, with some straying out as you get into double-digit points victories (e.g. Obama won DC by 86 points as opposed to 538's estimate of 60). The popular vote is within a percent too.
I think Nate might have collasped in an exhaustive heap at the keyboard...with his computer screen spamming: wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
I just looked out my window again. Looks like another 200 people have joined in. Two bands now performing. God bless America!
Too bad some of this joy will be tempered tomorrow by Prop 8 passing. The fight goes on.
Verification word: yestra. "Yestra-day," John McCain had a 1.1 percent chance of winning. Now he has none.
To quote the great Denny Green: "They are who we thought they were!"
Thankfully, we didn't let 'em off the hook.
I can't thank you guys enough for getting it right and for the peace of mind you provided this Obama voter.
Smackdown delivered!
A celebratory mood tonight on the Las Vegas Strip. All day long I was walking the strip between the Tropicana and the Wynn (both sides of the street) wearing a foot tall red white and blue hat and a couple of signs promoting my movie and book (which also has the potential to be a terrific Las Vegas show CUTTING CONFESSIONS) and most people I encountered were happy (aside from those numerous losers who don't know how to control their vices, which is death in Las Vegas.) Planet Hollywood (the old Aladdin) featured CNN's election coverage on one of its huge outdoor televisions that rise above the strip and people were transfixed as Barack Obama gave his speech and there was applause at various points. One individual, a young good looking black man, was driving his BMW convertible down the street honking and waving an Obama/Biden sign in the air. Even McCain supporters who talked to me were polite (possibly because I make extra effort at all times to be polite-after all, I want people to read my work and need to make a good impression by not being pushy) and most people were feeling pretty okay, even though a lot of them weren't visibly thinking about the election. Overall, the Las Vegas Strip was a really terrific place to be today.
CUTTING CONFESSIONS a very unusual fate driven love story-another, but different One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/370392338
I am thrilled for Barack Obama and hope to follow in his footsteps as a man who when faced with a difficult task and long odds rised admirably to the ocassion. In that way, just as Barack Obama, it is my hope Tamar (the real life girl in this unusual love story) and myself can be inspirations to others through the story which is unusual but that is often true of stories that become classics, which is my hope for this story just as my hope for Barack Obama is that he will live up to his potential and bring us together in a positive way.
Franken now up 2,000 votes.....
No win in Missouri this time. Unless there are as many provisional ballots as they say. http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/allresults.asp?eid=256
Shortly after I started going to UNLV the stereo in my car broke so I started bringing my ipod and listening to podcasts. I always listened to Barack Obama’s podcast first. They were always short, between 5 and 20 minutes, and they came out frustratingly infrequently, and they were far and away my favorite. He spoke with clarity and a quiet confidence and I always felt inspired.
This was a man who understood what needed to be fixed and how to fix it. This was a man who cared deeply about improving the United States and had the means to do so. He was thoughtful and intelligent and intellectually curious. Mired in the anti-intellectualism of the George W. Bush presidency here was a bright spot of a man who thought about things the same way I did, who was actually doing the things I’d only thought about. I was inspired and I wanted him to be president.
Along with inspiration though, I felt frustration. I thought it would never happen. He was brand new to Washington, he was black, and everyone was talking about Hillary. Plus he was who I wanted and for 8 years what I found inspiring had been a pretty poor indicator of what the American people found inspiring. At the time it didn’t appear he would even run.
But then he ran, and he came from behind to beat out Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and all the attacks from the right (Really Sean Hannity? Reading from the Communist manifesto? Really??
People were talking about how they teared up watching the results, or his acceptance speech, or the commentary, or the crowd, I didn’t. But as I sat quietly and remembered how I felt listening to those podcasts, the inspiration and the frustration, I finally did. The long-shot, the black man whose middle name is Hussein, who is extremely intelligent, who genuinely cares about improving the country, will be our next president.
Congratulations Barack, I can’t wait.
Of all the states Obama carried, I was most cheered by the Nevada result (especially the margin). The state director there, Terrence Tolbert died over the weekend at the age of 44.
Great job T.
Thank you, Sean. Your daily stories of what was going on in Obama field offices around the country helped push me out the door to drive to PA.
Brett's wonderful photos made it that much more real.
Thanks so much.
Alaska. Apparently they like their criminal politicians up there. You Betcha! *wink*
I knew Obama was going to crush McCain in NV. I was making phone calls to NV all day on Saturday to get out the vote and the postivite response was overwhelming!
Now it's time for EVERYONE to get to work and help this man. It's going to take all of us to fix this mess and there will be plenty of people trying to put up obstacles.
Wow -- you guys would not believe the wild dream I had last night.
Or maybe you would! :-)
For the first time, I can say I'm PROUD to be a Nevadan!
All hail Nate Silver, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Election Prophet Extraordinary!
I acknowledged 3 years ago on Nov. 4th, 2005 that Nevada would go Blue by 2008 in this rather virulent article I wrote announcing Nevada Divorces Red State Jesusland. The reason is similar to California. The consistently democratic leaning Clark County was projected to have a higher population than all the other 16 counties combined before 2008. As we all know, more urban areas typically lean democrat..
Not if Obama won in Indiana . . . that was leaning McCain in the final model.
So 538.com turned out to be almost perfect but with a tiny Republican lean.
Think back, if you will, to the big model change way back before the DNC when pie chart started looking like a blue PacMan. At the time it seemed outlandish - like lefty poll porn - even non-trolls ridiculed it. Quite amazing how the combination of all those tweaks to the model were so dead-on.
And it took guts - the scorn heaped on wrong predictions can be merciless.
In both the election and the projection, intelligence, integrity and courage came through. Life is good.
That's because we FLOODED Clark County with Obama volunteers/canvasers, many of whom came from California (including me)!
It was inspiring to be part of the ground game in Las Vegas on the final weekend - an experience I will never forget. After having participated, I can say with confidence that our GOTV efforts made a HUGE effort in Clark County, Nevada. I applaud the organizers and leader there who worked the area for much longer than I did!
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