FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: AP Calls Florida for Obama

11.04.2008

AP Calls Florida for Obama

by Nate Silver @ 10:59 PM

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Have to say, this is one state where I thought McCain might outperform his polls.

31 comments

Mark Thompson said...: Hi Nate,

Great job...but I have to say, many of the states are tighter than the polls...any comment?; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
Dean said...: first!; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
Brad said...: how come Nate didn't get to call it!?; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
D. Scott Campbell said...: My mom made it happen... I promised NH, she promised FLA!; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
Dean said...: no fkn way ....... again!; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
Chadwick said...: As a native of Omaha, NE, I'm still curious whether there will be an upset.; November 4, 2008 11:11 PM
Socrates said...: The hanging chads are now out of power :); November 4, 2008 11:12 PM
Jonathan said...: On a county-by-county basis, Obama's also going to win North Carolina and Indiana.

He's also got a very good chance in Missouri.; November 4, 2008 11:14 PM
Zatarra said...: Yay, Florida!!! Woo!!!; November 4, 2008 11:15 PM
akoolromeo said...: As you all know. I have been very skeptical of Obama's chances in Florida. I have been so disappointed in the past, I didn't think a Democrat could win this State. I am so happy. Even though the election was already decided, I wanted Florida to finally come through and win for me.; November 4, 2008 11:16 PM
sarasotajoe said...: Sarasota county is blue! 1st time since FDR!

YES WE DID!; November 4, 2008 11:17 PM
Jonathan said...: Also - Georgia Secretary of State is evidently reporting that the totals out of Georgia right now do not include the early voting ballots.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/4/23930/4551/542/653407; November 4, 2008 11:18 PM
greeneyes1463 said...: florida came through...yeah!!; November 4, 2008 11:19 PM
Billy said...: Seems like they got off their fat jewish asses:

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/30164/Sarah-Silverman/PSA/The-Great-Schlep/Get-Your-Fat-Jewish-Asses-On-A-Plane-To-Florida; November 4, 2008 11:20 PM
Snax said...: The Model Won! It only got IN and maybe Omaha wrong AFAICS. And only marginally wrong light pink v light blue.; November 4, 2008 11:21 PM
andrew said...: After 4 straight days of GOTV efforts and a full 12 hour day of poll watching here in FL, I have to say I'm thrilled to see Obama win Florida. Yes we did.; November 4, 2008 11:29 PM
D said...: Obama won Florida because Charlie Crist was pissed with McCain, and refused to put his thumb on the scale.

And for that, I thank him.; November 4, 2008 11:29 PM
Margaret said...: I knew Obama would win here!

wv: judders. What McCain is doing right now.

On the downside, that awful Amendment 2 (our Prop 8) looks like it might pass. :( Oh well. One day it will be overturned, I'm sure.; November 4, 2008 11:30 PM
Juris said...: The post hoc analysis, Nate, will have to focus not just on who won or lost the state but on the size of the differentials between the predicted and actual vote percentages. That may provide a little insight.

It would be interesting to look at how the underlying variables that you use in your nearest neighbor analysis might predict either the actual result or the differential between actual and predicted.

In any case, you've done a masterful job.; November 5, 2008 12:12 AM
Jenny said...: Damn, I live in a blue state. Can't wait to see the changes that are likely to occur in Tallahassee. Power to the people baby, power to the people; November 5, 2008 12:14 AM
Robin said...: Big winner tonight?

Nate! You were unbelievably accurate in you predictions.

You have my enduring trust.

Thanks.; November 5, 2008 12:43 AM
Nick said...: This post has been removed by the author.; November 5, 2008 1:28 AM
Nick said...: FRIGGIN FLORIDA FLIPPED FANTASTICALLY FREE FROM FAILURE!!!

-Nick from Tampa

P.S. anyone by Meadow Pointe this afternoon saw me tear down a McCain sign; November 5, 2008 1:29 AM
smathering said...: latino vote in orlando area made big difference- i know cuz i worked there for it. miss my home of chicago tonight.... but proud to say SI SE PUEDE in FLORIDA; November 5, 2008 2:20 AM
AD said...: I had the honor of working in South Florida (Broward) for the Obama campaign right after the primaries finished. I could have told you then based on the people I was working with that Obama was going to win FL.

Like you said about Indiana - Florida was won on the ground in the tri-county area. Just four of us registered almost 700 people in just 5 weeks. I am honored to have been a part of it.; November 5, 2008 5:32 AM
Listen to my Hype said...: I am proud of my state, for listening, paying attention and working hard for what we believed was right. Proud that my county turned blue for the history books (Orange-Orlando).. What an awesome night and such a fantastic speech by President Obama.

plogrear; November 5, 2008 8:25 AM
guami007 said...: As a cuban-american, I was blown away to see this:

http://canf1.org/artman/publish/editorial/How_to_Win_the_Cuban_American_Vote1.shtml

I NEVER in my wildest dreams thought that I would see what appears to be an endorsement, albeit tacit, for a Democrat come from a hard-core Republican group such as CANF.

Seeing Florida go Blue was a truly sweet sight.

P.S. Nate, you and your crew did a masterful job. Keep up the great work.; November 5, 2008 11:22 AM
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11.04.2008

AP Calls Florida for Obama

31 comments