FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 8:15 PM Update

11.04.2008

8:15 PM Update

by Nate Silver @ 8:16 PM

We're not calling Pennsylvania yet, but several other networks are. In all likelihood, Obama needs to flip just one of the big red states out there to take this thing.

90 comments

capehorn said...: First!; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
Gwen said...: Nervous!; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
Evan said...: ABC called PA for Obama too; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
Arno said...: That's GREAT NEWS! For JOHN MCCAIN!!!eleven11111; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
Laurel said...: YES THANK YOU GOD!!!; November 4, 2008 8:18 PM
CRLIndoland said...: Go Obama!; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
Obe from Cali said...: Penn and NH called for OBama! Ahhhhhhh!; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
cincyr said...: Can't wait for Virginia to be called.; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
Karla said...: Quick! Before it changes! Texas is BLUE!! http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
JVH said...: Sup wit IN??? is it all up to gary??; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
Jonas Ek said...: What networks have called Pennsylvania?; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
Collin said...: my god... its actually happening; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
Listen to my Hype said...: FL is looking really good, the I-4 corridor as you saw is basically blue except for weirdo Tampa, come on panhandle! Proud to be in Orlando tonight..

initial WV numbers and OH were pretty nice =)

sonsup-i dunno; November 4, 2008 8:19 PM
alan said...: I've compiled a list of key county benchmarks from 2004, to see how Obama is doing relative to Kerry.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/4/151422/097/145/652763; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
haribelafonte said...: BBC called NH for Obama, Shaheen and Hagan beats Dole in NC; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
Wappy said...: Let's not get ahead of ourselves with PA. No votes counted yet, the networks are basing everything on exit polls.

Has Nate taught you nothing?; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
anbruch said...: Blogger cincyr said...

Can't wait for Virginia to be called.

I think it might be awhile...; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
sdf said...: Nate, would love to see how the counties that have reported so far in VA compare to how Kerry did in 2004.; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
Brian said...: Is PA really called? I've seen it a couple of places, but I need some verification from my smart friends on this site. I hope so!!

wv: hyperp - a really anxious child molestor; November 4, 2008 8:20 PM
Matthew said...: Virginia is making me nervous...but it seems it is because Fairfax County and Arlington haven't come in yet.; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Fizz Byers said...: This is GREAT NEWS!!!1111one
FOR ROBOTS EVERYWHERE!!!11
http://www.VoteRobot.org; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Charles M. Kozierok said...: I think this is already over, and has been since it became obvious that McCain was only going to have a small lead in Indiana prior to Lake County even reporting.

--
Wondering what to do after the election?

I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.

If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :); November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Joseph said...: WOOHOO!!! GO PA!!!!!; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Nicholas Warino said...: Testing...fuck you, Blogger.; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
jakam said...: They'll call Florida before Virginia. And when they do, it's over.; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: Wooo Hoooo Pennsylvania.

McCain has been drawing dead for weeks.; November 4, 2008 8:21 PM
Matthew said...: ABC and NBC for Obama best I can tell, maybe more

This seems to be going well for the terrorist, looks like this might be the shock the RNC needs to ditch the dinosaur riders and go back to its roots...I hope I never have to vote for a democrat again.; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
Charles Crook said...: I-4 corridor in FL is turning Blue.

And this server is too slow.; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
Nicholas Warino said...: Pennsylvania, the state McCain went "all-in," being called a minute after polls close for Obama is great news!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
D said...: You better call it soon Nate. You're going to be the last ones in a bit.

Let's see some Senate updates too. Looks like Hagan is gonna take out Dole.

wv: dedbresh - the final remnants of the once brazen Republican party was swept away like so much dedbresh.; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
Real Joe said...: Obama wins PA

McCain Surge !!!; November 4, 2008 8:22 PM
Abbie Nermal said...: NBC and ABC have called PA for Obama...; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
PeteKent said...: It was reported earlier that McCain was performing up to Bush levels in"traditional" VA, but trailing his margins by 10% in suburban areas. With enhnaced AA turnout, VA is going Obama.; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
Subterranean said...: Getting the verdict that he blew a gazillion dollars and hours in PA all for NOTHING is GREAT NEWS!!! for President-Elect John McCain!!!; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
Linus said...: I still don't the good numbers for VA yet.; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: Real Joe,

Reveal your secret while we still kind of sort of care!; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: bump @ nicholas warino; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
dsalkovi said...: Mathew,
The same thing happened with Jim Webb. Northern Virginia results came in last and pushed Webb over the top over George Maccaca Allen.; November 4, 2008 8:23 PM
Yolanda said...: MSNBC also called PENNSYLVANIA for O!

Florida looks good....but I'm waiting for Ohio.

As Scarborough said just a minute ago, the thread for McCain is VERY thin. If O wins NC or VA or FL or OH or NV or MO

IT'S OVER; November 4, 2008 8:24 PM
Ed said...: Is the win probability going to change as states get finalized?; November 4, 2008 8:24 PM
Charles M. Kozierok said...: "It was reported earlier that McCain was performing up to Bush levels in"traditional" VA, but trailing his margins by 10% in suburban areas. With enhnaced AA turnout, VA is going Obama."

Choke on it, troll.

After months of listening to your endless racist lies and bullshit, tonight will be so sweet.

--
Wondering what to do after the election?

I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.

If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :); November 4, 2008 8:24 PM
George Collier said...: Nate you have done a wonderful job these past few months ... thank you!; November 4, 2008 8:24 PM
Obe from Cali said...: ABC, NBC called Pennsylv for Obama. MSNBC called NH.; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
PeteKent said...: IN too is going Obama. Urban areas not in and Obama doing better in tradtional GOP areas. OH is looking poor, purely based on Exit Polls; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
Michael Tiemann said...: North Carolina is going to "flip" for Obama! Go Obama!

P.S. Orange County is showing 77.5% voting for Obama. Dig it!!; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
Brian said...: JM is my love child is right. Reveal the secret Real Joe. You've been talking about it for over a week now.; November 4, 2008 8:25 PM
Joanne said...: I honestly don't know what I would do without this site. Thank you. Ugh. I'm drunk. But nervous. but. ....; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
D said...: Is Obama still favored to win Virginia? It's not looking good so far... :(; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
El Oso said...: Charles, it's not, sorry. Brevard is red. Volusia is blue though; November 4, 2008 8:26 PM
Zack said...: AGH! I've no more fingernails to bite!; November 4, 2008 8:27 PM
anbruch said...: Blogger Brian said...

JM is my love child is right. Reveal the secret Real Joe. You've been talking about it for over a week now.

I hope Blogger problems didn't chase him away...; November 4, 2008 8:27 PM
El Oso said...: Still a little worried about PA... Nate hasn't called it yet even though the rest of the MSM has; November 4, 2008 8:27 PM
KW said...: Nate, when do the early vote totals get counted? They don't seem to be reflected in the figures the networks are posting.; November 4, 2008 8:28 PM
zan said...: The butterfly ballot is back in West Palm Beach, FL.

The ballot this year required voters to fill in the spaces BETWEEN two boxes, and there were lots of people who filled in the boxes themselves. Video on MSNBC.

WV: Berink, as in NBC is putting states on berink outside their studios.; November 4, 2008 8:28 PM
PA John said...: OK Real Joe... spill it!; November 4, 2008 8:28 PM
Colbert for Head of FCC said...: woah where did you get Hagan numbers?; November 4, 2008 8:28 PM
Charles Crook said...: "Brevard is red. Volusia is blue though"

Orange County is Blue
Pinellas County is Blue, 89% reporting

Hillsborough has only reported 2%; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
Linus said...: If NC flips we probably don't even need VA or IN, as long as we can keep Colorado and NM.; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
anbruch said...: Blogger zan said...

The butterfly ballot is back in West Palm Beach, FL.

The ballot this year required voters to fill in the spaces BETWEEN two boxes, and there were lots of people who filled in the boxes themselves. Video on MSNBC.

What is it with Palm Beach???; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
Brian said...: Anbruch,

I hope so too. Real Joe went through this great transformation over this election cycle. I want to know his news!!; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
Zack said...: new post; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: Relax about Virginia. Obama land (fake Virginia) precincts take longer to report.; November 4, 2008 8:29 PM
Barry said...: We need a red state! Worried about VA. NC looks good so far. Tired of CNN showing Obama outperforming Kerry in IN, without any mention that Bush won IN by 12 points. It must be substantial outperforming, unless there's increased Dem turnout.; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
Brian said...: CBS just called PA for Obama.; November 4, 2008 8:30 PM
El Oso said...: DOWN GOES DOLE!!!!!; November 4, 2008 8:31 PM
zan said...: LA Times coverage of the West Palm Beach Ballot:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/showtracker/2008/11/nbc-reports-bal.html

Tim Russert’s famous white board was reincarnated in another form tonight. Reporting from West Palm Beach, NBC correspondent Kerry Sanders held up a white piece of paper on air and quickly scribbled a diagram with black ink to explain why some voters there were confused by the ballot.

The tricky design had two boxes by the name of each candidate. Voters were supposed to fill in the space between the two boxes to indicate their selected candidate. Instead, Sanders said, some voters said they checked one box or put an X in the middle.

“Whether it’s a very close vote here in Florida, specifically in Palm Beach Country, that will then become an issue,” Sanders said.

Anchor Brian Williams shook his head incredulously.

“How many people are watching right now saying, 'Does it have to be this hard?' ” he said.; November 4, 2008 8:31 PM
anbruch said...: Brian said...

Anbruch,

I hope so too. Real Joe went through this great transformation over this election cycle. I want to know his news!!

I know, and I want to know his news as well. All so very mysterious. But Blogger has been a real bitch tonight!; November 4, 2008 8:31 PM
Tyson said...: The assclown Dole is out

YAY; November 4, 2008 8:32 PM
ialex said...: OMG! Barack Obama is currently losing my suburban Atlanta county 51-48. Why is this good news? John Kerry lost my county 67-33. (!!!!!!!!!!); November 4, 2008 8:32 PM
Jackie said...: @alan - thanks for that post re: county numbers on Kos! I'd love if you expanded the VA counties though. ;); November 4, 2008 8:32 PM
Dave-london said...: 8% reporting

Hagan 57
Dole 40; November 4, 2008 8:33 PM
Colin said...: Indiana is getting pretty exciting.

◆ Obama ████████████51%

◇ McCain ███████████▌48%

I wonder if that Northwest area near Chicago is going to be a tease and not report until midnight. It seems like heavily Democratic areas always delay their reporting.; November 4, 2008 8:33 PM
Bruinpinoy82 said...: while I'm at work watching this unfold in vegas, I have YES WE CAN music video on REPEAT!

Go Obama!!!; November 4, 2008 8:36 PM
Tyson said...: Great job PA!!!!!!!!!

Piss off VA ya bastards; November 4, 2008 8:37 PM
Tyson said...: @bruinpinoy82-

Call everyone you know in Vegas and get them to the polls. I've got my family doing the same; November 4, 2008 8:39 PM
CRLIndoland said...: cnn just called PA for Obama; November 4, 2008 8:40 PM
Barry said...: How about an update, Nate.; November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
Roberto M. Perez said...: The West Palm Beach, FL ballot design is (once again) an insult to common sense,usability, and practicality. I am a Miami-Dade county resident, and am glad that our ballot was a simple Scantron-style bubble-in sheet. Whatever entity designed the West Palm Beach ballot deserves an anti-prize.; November 4, 2008 8:41 PM
akoolromeo said...: Re: West Palm Beach. What is up with them? Do they like the attention? In Orange County, you just had to color in the bubble. Is that so complicated? Why do they have to get fancy, when you have so many seniors who live down there who may be confused by a fancy design to the ballot?; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Colin said...: McCain loses OH/FL/PA wins election: 0.00%

☺ One down, two to go. ☻; November 4, 2008 8:43 PM
Yolanda said...: VA

PLEASE

I think the big counties have yet to be counted. AKA the FAKE Virginia; November 4, 2008 8:44 PM
SelenesMom said...: Kos has a thread tonight:

What is your libation of choice?

How much have you had already?

1000+ posts -- a lot, even for Kos

WV: Podun -- a small town in the heartland that feels like it's lost something lately; November 4, 2008 8:46 PM
Bruinpinoy82 said...: Tyson--

I did already :) I texted, called, myspaced, facebooked, and told all of my students to go vote!; November 4, 2008 8:47 PM
akoolromeo said...: For those who like to look at the election County by County here is a link so you can do such that.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-elections-nationalmap-ap,0,3763714.htmlpage; November 4, 2008 9:02 PM
Rumpelstiltskin said...: VA margin is closing.; November 4, 2008 9:06 PM
ThatcherW said...: OBAMA HAS WON!!!!

If you take the EVs that have been called by most networks and the SAFE OBAMA states left (including Iowa, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii)

OBAMA IS PRESIDENT 44!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 9:42 PM
Marcus said...: The party of LBJ and JFK is back.; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
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徵信社robin said...: 徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 外遇沖開, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信

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酒店上班請找艾葳 said...: 艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^; August 28, 2009 3:33 AM

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11.04.2008

8:15 PM Update

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