Taken exactly 72 hours before the polls close in Florida's Panhandle, the McCain-Palin Victory Center in Santa Rosa Beach:
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
11.01.2008
72-Hour Program?
@ 10:29 PMNot a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
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176 comments
First!
Ha ha ha Sean - nice one.
Excellent news . . . are they all just knocking on doors???? Both of them??
Nice picture. I'm sure they're all in the back.
way to go sean.
Are they TRYING to lose this election?
Are you sure there wasnt a mouse? It might have been what scared the elephants away.
GAME SET MATCH, OBAMA.
Sean... nice first!
(demieso... Dem ieso gonna win!)
They had to catch the earlier bird special. Then off to watch Faux Noise.
Nate, while I'm somewhere near the top of comments.
I sent you an email with the US sized by electoral vote counts, instead of geographically. It shows how blue the country has become.
I used your projection numbers to fill it in.
-Patrick
Where are Sarah's Medical records ?
Hmmmmm
To be sure, this is simply there strategy to convince everyone that they aren't doing anything so that us libs will get overconfident...
Then BAM they'll come out of their underground bunkers to suprise us all november 5th!
darn!
hard to say where the mccain campaign is these days. lost in space is the easy answer but it is more complex than that.
maybe they thought they were supposed to show up at santa rosa CA. or maybe they thought they were supposed to be in santa rosa NM?? apparently palin has trouble with places and (montreal is in france)
thinking.
To be fair, that place will probably pick up once the polls open, after all, we're still something like 60 hours away from that happening.
That being said, there should at least be something going on.
Of course, I'm sure the real reason no one is there is because they have families and liberal offices ae busy because they are a bunch of single people who party all night and have no values.
They're all home getting ready to watch their leader on SNL.
I'm amazed. Does the McCain Camp even know what the term 'ground game' means??!?
It is Florida, they do not need to work, they just need to call the supreme court.
They're up to something...
They are home watching Keith
Nate:
Thanks for the early Christmas reference, Nate!!!!
Well, just saw an ad in Central Florida (right now) about Rev. Wright. So much for 'not going there' by the McCain campaign.
You guys going to go over to Obama HQ?
I HOPE you can find parking and CHANGE for the meter.
In all fairness they will probably be heavily McCain in that neck of the woods. So thier overcofidence will only help Obama.
My 82 yo father is voting for Obama and he resides in FL. The last time he voted for a democrat was 1960.
wv: wheactro - what you get when you don't eat your Wheaties!
Posted this at the other thread...
My guess, VA is called before PA. Not because PA will be all that close (5-7%), but because the networks figure people will change the channel to something else.
In case anyone missed it - here's Palin's declaration of war on Iran:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D9LofMCa8A
And Canada is next.
Nate & Sean,
Can you talk about what Barack Obama would have to do for the Obamacans to become permanent converts? If he could compromise on some issues and bring the head republican pragmatist over they would be able to crush the christian fundamentalists for decades to come,and get this country back on top. Is it possible?
I understand if McCain's offices in deep blue or deep red states are lifeless.
But as I gather from Sean's OTR series, this 9-to-5-with-6-hour-lunches type of schedule is the norm EVERYWHERE for McCain, swing state or no.
When the national pundits collectively scratch their collective half-brain on Nov 5, wondering why this supposedly close race turned into a 57-41 landslide, remember that you, the 538 faithful, read this series.
wv - gedli - Sarah Palin could have used her gedli powers for good, but she gave in to the dark side.
Get out the vote!!!!
wv: caryboun, what sarah palin will be doing november 5th, along with moosoun and wolfoun
Have you seen this youtube video of Palin debating McCain?
Nate & Sean,
Can you talk about what Barack Obama would have to do for the Obamacans to become permanent converts? If he could compromise on some issues and bring the head republican pragmatist over they would be able to crush the christian fundamentalists for decades to come,and get this country back on top. Is it possible?
As a moderate Obama-can myself, I'd be interested to learn as well. If Obama can just keep Congress on a Center-Left governing position, I'll be happy. If he allows them free reign to go far left, he may need to watch out in 2010 and 2012.
@beek as I mentioned before in another thread we did ok in 1812, no worries...
wv belesip telling your Italian girlfriend to have a drink.
I'm watching countdown right now and Olberman has a rewind of the entire election season. They are at the republican convention right now. And the exuberance is just so not what it's like right now for the republicans. It really is funny and justice tastes so good.
Remember the days when McCain didn't have panic attacks about his VP pick? Remember the days when the republicans didn't have a care in the world? Pepperidge Farm remembers. I mean I remember and what a way we have come. It's almost over and i can't wait for Tuesday!! It's gonna be soooo nice. I can't wait to rub it in my conservative's friends faces cuz that's what they did to me when bush won....twice.
It is just gonna be great.
"I'm amazed. Does the McCain Camp even know what the term 'ground game' means??!?"
I guess it has moved to Pennsylvania altogether.
"I'm watching countdown right now and Olberman has a rewind of the entire election season. They are at the republican convention right now. And the exuberance is just so not what it's like right now for the republicans. It really is funny and justice tastes so good."
Remember when people who wanted to believe McCain had a chance had actual polls that backed them up, even if they didn't understand how to interpret a convention bounce?
ha, you didn't see all the phonebanking they outsourced to india...
[wv: imphy -- the level of excitement at the mcpalin field offices]
It is Florida. All the retirees were in bed by 7 PM. These Repubs really know their demographics.
Nice follow up post, Sean. The one nagging thought in my mind after reading your semi-summation piece for the On the Road series was that the GOP keeps on talking about how their GOTV efforts were a 72-hour affair. Maybe you were simply looking at the wrong time, and a really big late push might be enough. The picture you just posted kind of lets the air out of that theory, I guess.
They're off to Old Country Buffet and then to bed.
It's sad when people think that this is going to be a tight race and the McCain camp isn't even breaking a sweat. Sad, sad, sad...
But good for Obama!
EmonOkari said:
"Well, just saw an ad in Central Florida (right now) about Rev. Wright. So much for 'not going there' by the McCain campaign."
I have seen it too. As a matter of fact, in one break, they played one Obama ad and three negative McCain ads. There are quite a few here in Florida. It is to the point that I had to turn the TV off....
I really have to wonder how much the negative ads work at this point, although if there are so many on right now, obviously those who pay for them think they DO work.
Any comments ?
I think Obama will win Florida and it might be by 5+ points. I have several Republican friends here and they are totally depressed about their choice and several had told me they probably will not vote at all. Keep in mind some of these are die hard Republicans and Cuban Americans. This might be the big surprise on election night. I think many of the undecideds are republicans that may not vote at all.
No gloating - let's focus on the voting.
Remember 2004? This time.. leave nothing to chance.
Please go join your Obama neighborhood team.
Let's finish the job.
Something has been bugging me about Nate's reports about the McCain ground game/GOTV for quite a while. Nate has consistently reported nearly empty or closed McCain campaign offices. Yet the McCain campaign has reported even more doors knocked on/calls then Bush 2004. Now these realities cannot both be true, and I suspect neither are true. Obviously I don't doubt Nate, but the McCain campaign just can't be that moribound. I'd like to believe it could, being an Obama supporter, but I believe in neither the tooth fairy nor Santa Claus. So what IS the reality? Where is the McCain campaign operating from?
emonokari-
I am the only Democrat in the world rooting for 59 senate seats, for precisely the reason you cited. If we can manage not to completely overreach between now and 2010, and we can manage to fix much of what ails the country, we could marginalize the R's for a long long long long time.
wv - suraten - McCain campaign manager Rick Davis is suraten of vittory on Toozaday.
McCain may be better off with his volunteer offices closed. Here is a story posted on Talking Points Memo:
Interesting anecdote and probably a testament to ground organization. I have no idea what this means. Friday night (which happens to be the start of our Sabbath) my wife answered the phone to hear a man stating he was from the McCain-Palin campaign. He asked who she was supporting. She replied that we will vote for Obama. He replied with "but he's a f-----g n---er!". Before I get to my wife's response I'll first have to say that I understand desperation and I also understand that this pitch may actually work for a few people. I also understand that there are people who are whack-jobs phone-banking for both sides. But here are some facts:
My wife and I are Black. Citing the fact that Obama is a f----g n---er as a way to sway our vote may not be a great idea. My wife and I live in Maryland... Baltimore, MD.... One of the most African American areas of Baltimore Maryland. How on earth did our phone numbers get on to a McCain volunteers phone bank list of potential voters to be calling at this stage in the game? We have never received a call from the Obama campaign.
Just weird. Not sure what to make of it... but that's not a good sign of organization. If it did anything it made us want to donate more. BTW, the rest of the call went downhill from there. My wife prayed for forgiveness after the call.
--Josh Marshall
@iowacane
Can't watch the ads when your standing in line to vote.
Great day of canvassing today. We've got more then twice as many GOTV volunteers as Kerry had and Minnesota was a lot more central to his strategy then it is to the Obama strategy.
I was on a conference call with 20k team leaders from around the country and blogged it here. 13.3 million voter contacts for the Obama campaign and lots of nice numbers.
http://populistareport.blogspot.com/2008/11/obamas-campaign-shatters-records.html
Fired up!
This is why we should not vote for the McCain/Palin ticket - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc
Palin is too dumb to understand the world, just imagine if someone pranks her when she is in the White House and tricks her to give the Nuclear codes - she could!
I guess the real blame goes on the campaign staff.
I believe Obama is centrist. A believer in supply side economics that acknowledges that demand needs to addressed right now, but not always. As far as government he seems like a pragmatist. I would really like him to form a coalition with republicans that care more about the constitution and america's legacy than Roe v. Wade. But what will keap the Buckleys of the GOP on his side in 8 years?
Obama needs to plan past his two terms. And set up a working government for the 21st century.
Speaking as someone who just finished up a long shift running a Republican phone bank, locking the door approximately 73 hours before the polls close around these parts, I can tell you: You don't call voters on Saturday night.
And we didn't call people on Saturday night in 2004, or 2000, either.
I heard they had to close early because of a plumbing problem :)
Sorry I just put this on the other thread for Nate and I can not see it yet, so ...
Here are some of the factors that no model can really account for, and that is what keeps me up.
When the light weight voters, in the undecided column or the lean BO column, come to vote on the 4th, each person may have an over all feeling that make him/her vote for JM because of any of the following reasons:
1.A PUMA, who converted to BO in the bottle ground states, but her revenge was overwhelming at the last minute.
2.Some undecided that I know are evangelicals and they actually just started to watch the game. Well, we know how much it will take to make them go for the check.
3.A lot of Democrats that I know, who are females, actually were for Hilary just because she was a women, and now they feel that may be Sara is good enough.
4.Some one who is for BO because his job is on the line, but his uprising made him very hesitant to vote for a black man at the last minute. I already have seen that before.
5.Some lean BO are not excited enough to go vote on Tuesday.
6. Blablablablablabla...... I am a basket case now, and some one has to cheer me up guys...
I can't wait for all this to be over. I'm mentally exhausted.
Special shout out for Piggygate recap on Olbermann! Hahaha that will always crack me up.
This Olbermann recap is the entire election in fast forward and whew boy was there so much... I've forgotten a lot in just 2 short/long months.
As a point of reference. I just got home from the Obama office in Broward County/Fort Lauderdale in the heart of the most democratic county in Florida and it is till a bee hive of people at 10:30 pm. They were all psyched to have an extra hour of work time tonight with the time change.
Obama may be more center-left than most expect him to be. He owes Jesse nothing in this campaign. I get the feeling that he really feels called unite and lead. It could be interesting to see who he disappoints the most.
It's Florida:
They're:
(1) celebrating the U of F blowout of Georgia
(2) celebrating the U of M OT win v VA (less likely)
(3) mourning the FSU loss to Ga Tech
(4) getting ready for church tomorrow
(5) putting the lite beer on ice for tomorrow's NASCAR race; or
(6) boarding up windows for next year's hurricane season
THE REAL NEWS IS DRUDGE IS QUIET RIGHT NOW TOO.... HMMMMMM
"I'm amazed. Does the McCain Camp even know what the term 'ground game' means??!?"
I guess it has moved to Pennsylvania altogether.
Interestingly, their ground game there consist of 50 PUMA's who go around bitching about the primary.
I don't think that's going to work, but conservatives can't be bothered with this stuff. They found a pack of useful idiot Clintonites to do their work for them.
nickname, give us some more insight into what you see happening in McCain's ground game. What state are you in? Do you see more enthusiasm than 2004? Less? Same?
"THE REAL NEWS IS DRUDGE IS QUIET RIGHT NOW TOO.... HMMMMMM"
He'll have a Pennsylvania headline soon enough. You can bet on it.
Yet the McCain campaign has reported even more doors knocked on/calls then Bush 2004
Did Bush use robocalls in the general election?
My wife prayed for forgiveness after the call.
According to right-wingers in my own family, "God doesn't hear the prayers of Democrats..."
(sadly, thats a 'quote')
And to think. I just left my Obama office in PA 30 minutes ago and there were 15 people there.
"Something has been bugging me about Nate's reports about the McCain ground game/GOTV for quite a while. Nate has consistently...."
The "On the Road" (OTR) series has been reported by Sean Quinn, with pictures by Brett Marty.
Thanks again Sean and Brett!
wv: donices - to do nice things, like volunteer for the Obama campaign! (My mother did have a friend named Donice, pronounced DON.is)
Nate is on CNN right now. check it out.
mscis-
I will assume for now that you are not a concern troll, and give you one long run-on answer for all that ails your worrywart mind.
Obama's ground game and his supporters' enthusiasm and the cell-only households all work in his favor - those three factors are more than enough to counterbalance any of your worries.
Let us never speak of this again.
I can't wait for all this to be over. I'm mentally exhausted.
I'll be in Gary, Indiana for the final stretch. This is killing me slowly, too. I have dreams about poll numbers, I shit you not.
Obama Called The N-Word At Palin Rally
It's clearly obvious that O'Sarah bin Palin heard the remark as she stumbled and bumbled through her ranting vile speech, yet she does nothing to denounce it.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T0FI2axbU
Gee Matt Drudge has not posted the CBS poll on Drudge-I don't understand it..
I guess Zogby's polling didn't show a huge McCain bounce because nothing is on the Drudge..Maybe Drudge can commision his own poll and call John McCains house and Arizona and poll the household and than post it as a "developing story"...
Obviously, they have Obama right where they want him. They are so confident in their landslide victory that they don't even need a GOTV effort. We should all surely be terrified. Feel free to panic.
eve - care to wager whether nickname will respond to you?
I'm not sure Drudge could find any good numbers by polling Arizona either!!!!
There's a mouse in my campaign office! It's my mascot.
Matt, what the idiot yelled out was "redistributor". Listen closely to it.
According to right-wingers in my own family, "God doesn't hear the prayers of Democrats..."
In that case I suggest they find out which Republicans prayed for Obama to win and throw the bastards out.
I just left the Obama Philly headquarters. Still buzzing at 11 pm.
If McCain somehow DOES pull this off...elections will be forever changed. And pollsters everywhere will be laughed out of the business.
@just John
But where the heck are these youg guys, FL reports say that they are almost at all time low.
But thanks any way, I know some one is may be more relaxed than I am at this time of the night.
"I guess Zogby's polling didn't show a huge McCain bounce because nothing is on the Drudge.."
Or maybe Zogby's having second thoughts about leaking to Drudge after his website crashed last night following the "48-47" headline.
Obviously I don't doubt Nate, but the McCain campaign just can't be that moribound.
Yes they are.
[wv idsoin -- ipecac for politicians]
Ed M. said...
Matt, what the idiot yelled out was "redistributor". Listen closely to it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That's what the dkos fruitcakes "think". I disagree.
It was two nights before the election and not a creature was stirring not even a Zogby. Drudge's head was hung with sadness because John changed his numbers again.
ed m. said...
"I have dreams about poll numbers, I shit you not."
LOL.
I'll be driving people to the polls, after voting of course. Just wanna get through this last bit. I can't take much more.
The model's predictions look much noisier since the poll-aging adjustment earlier today.
The simulation output has gone from having one dominant peak at (IIRC) 375EV to having several significant peaks, and impressionistically I would say the EV distribution has broadened a bit as well.
Perhaps this was to be expected -- downweighting old data means that there is less effective data to constrain the prediction, which gets more entropy as a result. I wonder whether this is an improvement, though. Was the old data really so suspect that it was worth accepting the growth in the prediction uncertainty that resulted from tossing it?
VW: Ressest
Blogger Just John said...
eve - care to wager whether nickname will respond to you?
no!
:)
In that case I suggest they find out which Republicans prayed for Obama to win and throw the bastards out.
Sadly, I have already been 'excommunicated' from my family for leaving the Republican Party this year and volunteering for Obama. So, technically, they have done exactly what you speak. Again, this isn't the Republican Mainstream we're talking about here...but the FAR right who believe Palin is God's Prophet (the same family members that chastised me in 2000 for voting for that 'liberal' and 'n*****-loving' McCain in the 2000 primaries.
mscis - they're procrastinators, like me. They'll vote, just not as early as the seniors.
wv - darkidle - hey, stop talking about McCain's offices that way!!
I think you're missing the point Nate. The real GOTV effort for the McPalin campaign is all in place and will not disappoint. The campaign HQ is for decorative purposes only.
They've still got Sunday, Monday, and most of Tuesday to be bustling. It's not technically 72 hours, but it's still three days. It'd be more telling if the activity level is the same tomorrow.
I learned about Florida early hours a decade ago while in Sarasota (during a film festival, which usually means extra eaters in town).
The local Burger King had a large banner - NOW OPEN TIL 8PM!!!
Our family also abandoned our Republican roots and is voting for Obama and the Democratic Senator as well. Now that Cheney endorsed McCain it proves without a doubt that McCain = Bush. No thanks.
-Another Republican Family for Obama
emonokari -- sometimes we are far better off finding friends to be our family. I hope you have plenty of good people in your life.
"Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse."
How does Sean know this? I mean, I know the guy is talented, but is he also an exterminator or something?
I'll be driving people to the polls, after voting of course. Just wanna get through this last bit. I can't take much more.
I live in Obama's district, I have to go to Indiana to calm my nerves. Obama will destroy John McCain here. Count it as a bit of blessing you can act locally to reduce butterflies. I didn't take vacation this summer, when it was sane and now my vacation is the first week of November and I'm going to a shithole. I know Gary, and no one there is going to argue with me that taking a vacation to Gary is nuts.
Re the obsession with the election and 538.com. I, according to my wife, said in a half asleep daze to our son when he wanted a drink of water in the middle of the night 'go back to bed, we'll know if the model is correct once the votes are counted'
I can't see Obama (esp from all that I've seen thus far) being so short sighted as to not plan for a long term, bigger picture administration. There's no way. He's obviously a hard worker and to piss away all this for only 4 years doesn't fit the man.
I am in east orlando (not sure if this got posted earlier by me-modem died) and was at a church carnival for the kiddies. McCain signs EVERYWHERE. I know not surprising but they were outside of the area on the busy road. However inside there was one of those blow up thingies (hehe) inside the area. ugh. My brother and sitter are the part of the hispanic evangelicals. Hispanic vote is one thing, hispaniv evangelical, a whole nother thing-and may wipe it out. He was told by his wife to vote yes on amendment two. sigh. We can all vote the way we want, but their reasoning is just so, closed minded.
He is also one of the people who registered Dem for whatever reason but will vote GOP, as is my Independent sitter. more ugh. and yes I tried.....
Anyway, I do see more negative McCain ads, Obama's ad I have seen while typing this is "where do you think John McCain will take you in this economy (subject is riding in a car) he looks in the rearview mirrow where you see George Bush in the reflection lol.
That being said, I believe that FL will go blue, it may be ugly, it may not, but we should finally flip it. We Obama supporters know we must vote, staying home is not an option. Weather for Tuesday is cloudy, rain on Monday, Tuesday looks good.....
wv-milial- Sarah Palin's version of patua(sp?) on on policies milial likkle bit here and there...
wnstnsmth said...
So at this point does anyone think the feared "October surprise" bin Laden tape still has any possibility of being released--say tomorrow or Monday--or at this point does it seem like it's not gonna happen? In 2004 it happened a full week before the election, so I'm wondering if maybe this time around it was maybe just a red herring. Anyone agree?
It wasn't a full week, but a few days on the Friday before the election. I remember Pat Buchanan getting all excited saying it would definately benefit Bush. But yeah, either a bin Laden tape, courtesy of the CIA, released Sunday evening/Monday morning, or it'll be a false flag operation, courtesy of Cheney and the Pentagon.
Anyone think McCain spent the last two weeks actively courting Cheney's endorsement?
Hipsterindiekid - the whole world is 24/7 now. Obama understands that and his campaign reflects that. This is just another sign that McCain's people are a little, shall we say, behind the times.
Barack Obama congratulates McCain... on gaining the endorsement of Dick Cheney
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=xanYafIlaPE
(the same family members that chastised me in 2000 for voting for that 'liberal' and 'n*****-loving' McCain in the 2000 primaries.
If I was in this situation, I'd be throwing those words back at them now. Of course, I'm also a person who wore a Northern Ireland soccer shirt to my mom's very Irish-Catholic family reunion a few years ago. I got more than a few dirty looks that day.
I'm wondering if Cheney wants McCain to lose and that is why he endorsed him. Have those two got a bad history?
Morning Call Penn Tracker
Obama 52
McCain 45 (+1)
http://www.mcall.com/
McCain continues to inch up Obama is holding steady over 50%
"Where is the McCain campaign operating from?"
___________________________________
Cheney's bunker.
Dialat. Phonebanking, or what is not going on at McCain's Walton County headquarters.
ed m,
I live in NYC, so not locally. But I'm lucky that I have a car so I took vacation time off as well to go to PA...
McCain continues to inch up Obama is holding steady over 50%
Obama has stayed at 52% the last few days. If he holds that, the best McCain can conceivably do is 47% (figure 1% for third parties).
beek said...
"I guess Zogby's polling didn't show a huge McCain bounce because nothing is on the Drudge.."
Or maybe Zogby's having second thoughts about leaking to Drudge after his website crashed last night following the "48-47" headline.
He actually made a headline out of that? What a dick.
I live in NYC, so not locally. But I'm lucky that I have a car so I took vacation time off as well to go to PA...
We're going to stomp a mudhole in these folks :D
@Emon Okari
Technically, that Rev. Wright ad is not from the McCain campaign. It's from a 527 with the name of GOPnationatrust or something like that. Watch the fine print at the end of the ad.
@ Just John said:
"they're procrastinators, like me. They'll vote, just not as early as the seniors."
Some one said that they act like college students who wait to the last minute and then they burn the mid night oil and show up to the exam...
Well, I am a college prof. and I like to tell these procrastinators, including you Just John, this will be an exam that they can never make up, even if there aunt has died on Tuesday.
Get you butt moving and vote now or we will all fail this exam.
Cheney wants McCain to lose so Palin will get in in 2012. Why else would he endorse him and knowing an endorsement from him could only hurt him.
Here's a possible conspiracy theory based on Drudge's page now...he's got a big picture of Obama and the headline is "I will change the world"...maybe Zogby reports a "huge day" for Obama and Drudge is throwing in the towel?
Technically, that Rev. Wright ad is not from the McCain campaign. It's from a 527 with the name of GOPnationatrust or something like that. Watch the fine print at the end of the ad.
Then I look forward to McCain publicly denouncing the ad tomorrow.
McCain workers were all working underground for the November surprise. Can't imagine more than 3 or 4 votes cast for the deceitful liars. America cannot be so ignorant to vote for the McCain / Palin ticket of hate.
Nate:
Would you address the effect that the National Popular Vote bill would have on your model?
_________________
I was up in NH today. Very energetic staff in newly-opened office in Rollingsford. Unbelieveably well-organized canvas.
A bit of a bummer for my actual canvas, however. Most folks not at home or moved away.
Sigh.
This makes me really want to see the National Popular Vote come to pass. I'd be so much happier talking to the folks in my neighborhood, rather than travelling to a battleground state.
EmonOkari,
Your family scares the hell out me. What's even scarier is that about 30% of this country shares their views. The far-right fundamentalists Christians are the number 1 threat to the constitution and America. Have you ever read about the zealots that instigated the romans to attack jerusalem and then ran to Masad and killed themselves? These are american zealots, and its time to separate them into a third party so their influence can be diminished.
We were canvassing in New Hampshire today for Obama and saw the same thing Nate saw. At 5 pm, volunteers were streaming into Obama HQ. Amazingly, there was a parade of elderly folks bringing in mountains of donated, homemade food. Very high energy-- at the same moment (5pm) we saw the McCain headquarters across the street closing for the day. Talk about a morale boost.
"Nate is on CNN right now. check it out."
__________________________________
Superstar!
Damemb. What the Palin pick did to the McCain campaign.
Obviously I don't doubt Nate, but the McCain campaign just can't be that moribound. I'd like to believe it could, being an Obama supporter, but I believe in neither the tooth fairy nor Santa Claus. So what IS the reality? Where is the McCain campaign operating from?
Like another poster, I'm wondering if it's operating from churches, and people don't see it because they are recruiting people solely in their own networks.
...But that's some darn fine signage they've got there -- much prettier than the dumpy-but-bustling Democratic HQ in my neighborhood!
Ed M. said...
I can't wait for all this to be over. I'm mentally exhausted.
I'll be in Gary, Indiana for the final stretch. This is killing me slowly, too. I have dreams about poll numbers, I shit you not.
November 1, 2008 9:53 PM
************************
LOL. I had those dreams ALL NIGHT last night. And I will also be somewhere in Indiana Monday night for poll watching all day Tuesday but I haven't been assigned a specific location yet. Waiting for that email!
It took me a number of years to break free. Back when I first was able to vote, I was told that I couldn't get to heaven if I voted for Clinton over Dole. This is how these folks raise their children, gents. And its so very sad. Because they preach God's love with one side of their mouth, and practice such hatred and deceit from the other. They are part of the exact same religious denomination as Sarah Palin...for whatever that is worth.
While I would never vote for McCain, I had a certain amount of respect and admiration for him..That was of course--BP (before Palin). I think she's an embarassment and I hinestly don't know how any self respecting voter can actually pull the lever for this ticket..Heck I can understand those folks not voting for Obama out of principle, but than vote for Libertarian out of principal. I think you just lose credibility if you pull the lever for such light weight..Quite frankly her nomination is an insult to the office..Glad to see alot of smart conservatives take McCain to task..
BTW anyone see Lawrence Eagleburger..Spoke his mind but the chickened out and did a MEa Culpa..
I'm canvassing and phoning in Sitka, Alaska.
Went door to door this morning (prefer it to phoning) but when I came back to our office our 6 phone lines were busy and two people were calling on cell phones. Phones myself this afternoon since it was raining (now that we're calling already identified voters to GOTV I don't mind phoning so much)
I never have called or met so many happy voters - the Democrats and Non-Partisan (who outnumber registered Repubs and Dems in Alaska) who we've previously identified as Dem supporters are SO HAPPY this year - even if the national race is called before Alaska can vote they are SO HAPPY to be voting in winning races. I don't think overconfidence will be an issue - they are bound and determined to VOTE!!!!
Picture of issues in small towns - we are encouraging people to vote early (still possible in Alaska on Monday) but people want to particpate in the communal voting on Tues. Especially in Precinct 2 in Sitka - apparently [name withheld] makes really good cookies. We generally have cookies and treats at all our polling locations but those from Precinct 2 (not my precinct) must be especially good because several people mentioned them as a reason to vote on Tuesday! I am jealous.
Don't think Obama will carry Alaska but I think he'll do better than expected!
(PS - my word is "swine" - sans lipstick.)
They need to be split into a third party and watch their influence go the way of neo-fascists in europe; always present but not very influential.
Like another poster, I'm wondering if it's operating from churches, and people don't see it because they are recruiting people solely in their own networks.
Possible, but they would be in jeopardy of losing their tax exempt status as a church.
Blogger The Game said...
Here's a possible conspiracy theory based on Drudge's page now...he's got a big picture of Obama and the headline is "I will change the world"...maybe Zogby reports a "huge day" for Obama and Drudge is throwing in the towel?
November 1, 2008 10:17 PM
--------------------------------------
More Drudge bullshit. Never heard Obama use "I", it's "We."
HA!! And we had some local folks stop by our Obama office in Mississippi today who were headed out for Pensacola tonight to GOTV there for the next 3 days! :-D
Ohio U
10-12 to 10/23
M41
O57
Re: obsession, I had a dream the other night where my sister and I were arguing over what forms of ID were acceptable at the polls.
Three. More. Days.
Yes. We. Can!
I did phoning this afternoon from my house. The list I got was in Philadelphia.
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co poll:
Obama 54%
McCain 37%
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081101/NEWS09/81101014&theme=CAMPAIGN_2008
I voted last week, but I think I may swing by my polling site and see how busy it is on Tuesday.
I grew up within an hour of that precinct. It's VERY conservative! My dad was local head of the Kennedy-Johnson campaign for the panhandle in 1960 & his operation wasn't that dead three days before the election. I hope it's a telling picture!
This is great news for John McCain.
@SERETSE
If that is the case then the game is over.
PS.: Please put up the link for us.
It's after 11:30 ET. Do you know where your leaked Zogby poll on Drudge is?
Don't forget the blog linked from the last post about "internal GOP polls" from a "GOP bigwig" that supposedly showed Mc landslides in MI, NJ (?), and CA.
The source of this news is a weird right-wing DJ from Pittsburgh named Jim Quinn. When I lived there during the Clinton years his program was basically the AM version of Limbaugh - ie, nonstop bitching about How Corrupt The Clintons Are. So I take this news with several hundred shakers of salt.
The level of anxiety out there is amazing. So many people are convinced something will happen to snatch victory away from Obama. Perhaps it will. I'm more convinced this dynamic is happening:
- Mc's campaign is engaging in last-minute braggadocio to instill a sense of urgency that will energize the dispirited base. It's the same tactic as K-Mart's blue light specials, really. Put out the siren, make it seem important, and people will come running.
- any "tightening" in the race is not coming at O's expense. His numbers are remaining steady, so that says dispirited Republicans are deciding they're going out to vote, and/or undecideds are breaking for Mc.
For Mc to pull out a win would mean that practically every single pundit and pollster in the nation got this election wrong. Maybe it's the classic argument from authority, but when political brains like Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg have already called this race over, you have to give those opinions a lot of weight...
link for Ohio U poll. It was a class project, so I don't have much confidence in those numbers.
http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/article/20081031/UPDATES01/81031019/1002/NEWS01
Thank you EVE for the link.
@Seretse
Those dates are rather old, in addition to what eve pointed out.
I went canvassing for Obama today in a Kansas City. There were about 400 enthusiastic volunteers to cover half of one of KC's smaller outlier counties. The standing joke is whether we have ever seen any McCain volunteers (there were no sightings today). This is definitely Bush country and our goal (our goal is to lose these counties by a small margin so the Jackson and St. Louis Counties' landslides will carry the state), but the enthusiasm for McCain is noticeably weak here. Missouri is still a true toss up ( you stand a good chance of getting booed off the porch here), but the ground game is going well.
I have been trying the following statement to the comment sections on all political articles on Fox news:
It is simply un-American to criticize the incoming president of the United States in a time of war. Attacks on Obama threaten our troops and hurt our chances of success. Shame on you.
Please join me! (I think I've gone insane, but the above statement just pushes buttons there that beg to be pushed).
OT but this Olbermann sketch on SNL is hilarious....
@Dave Brodbeck,
It was pretty funny.
@ Tensor:
"Those dates are rather old, in addition to what eve pointed out."
However, it is not that old and perception matters. Read this part of the survey, below, and see how the effect may be on the morals of the Republicans. At least some of them may give up on voting, since they think it is not going to make a difference any way, don't you agree?
"When asked, “Which candidate do you think has the best chance of winning the election?” 86 percent said Obama, while 14 percent said McCain.
“Many people I spoke with were leaning toward John McCain, but every person I spoke to believed that Barack Obama had the best chance of winning the election,” said Ohio University student Britney Grimmelsman."
McCain, his philosophy and his followers are all worn out. The senior diner deals start at 4 and so they are all out by 5. You've got to go 5:30-6:30, action time. It's bed by 7:30.
Could this be a case of McCain deciding to put country first? He can't endorse Obama, but he can just kind of shut down. If so, he's got his hero status back.
For anyone who's still hyperventilating over the supposed "internal polls" that Mc has showing him tied or leading:
"I feel very good about it." When asked if he was confident he'd win: "Yes, I am. I still feel very good about it."
- Sen. George McGovern (D-SD), November 7, 1972
Looking forward to seeing Vice-President-elect Biden tomorrow in Tallahassee at FSU!
As for PA, the Commonwealth will stay blue. Governor Rendell is all business.
Sean -
You forgot that Daylight Savings Time ends tonight and we gain an hour. That means that you took the picture 73 hours before polls close in Florida! I'm sure that an hour after you left, the office was buzzing with energy!
> Repug's calling mit der N-word
--Josh Marshall
Josh, you lucky dude! I'd love it if I could get on a McCain call list. I'd bait them until I got them to say that a black leader would be bad for America. Then I'd tell them "Great! I'm voting for Obama because I'm a Muslim and we want to weaken America so that we can convert it!" Thank them for their time and hang up.
Got to have your fun in the waning days.
That's the next county over from me. It's a very rural area-that part of the county is essentially a one mile wide by 20 mile long sand bar separated by five miles of bay from the rest of the county. Year round population in the area is maybe 30-35,000 people.
I'm not surprised to see it shut down so early since the area doesn't have a huge volunteer pool to draw from.
Other random thoughts about it:
The Australian restaurant next door is supposed to be good for a quick meal
Karl Rove's beach house is only a couple miles down the way in one direction
Sheryl Crowe's beach house is a couple miles away in the other direction. By all accounts, she's far more pleasant to bump into down here than Rove is. (Rove's kind of infamous for going off on a food and travel writer for Southern Living magazine who dared to ask a total softball non-partisan question during a 'no media' talk he gave at a local library)
Apparently they're all down at the Florida Capitol fasting and praying for an anti-abortionist President.
Praying for a Miracle
In case anyone missed it - here's Palin's declaration of war on Iran:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D9LofMCa8A
Ok, that's being a bit mean. She might have just misspoke there.
And Canada is next.
Maybe once someone lets her know what country Montreal is in, you betcha. ;) That prank call you can completely blast her on. They gave a fake name for the Prime Minister of Canada and she didn't blink. It was painfully obvious she was trying to fake her way through it like she did with Curic. And hey, you can see Canada for parts of Alaska too. Guess that didn't help her, who'd have thought?
It is so very, very sad.
>> Karl Rove's beach house is only a couple miles down the way in one direction
OMG, Nate you so totally have to go egg and TP that as a day-late Halloween prank! ;)
Just jumping in to say how much I've enjoyed your writing over the last few weeks, Sean. Fantastic work, and while I'm glad the campaign is finally winding up, I must say I'm going to miss these columns.
OBAMA SUPPORTERS! VOTE. VOTE. VOTE.
Go To: VoteForChange.com to see where your polling place is.
You know Nate made it big when the best he can give to DL Hughley is an interview via satellite.
"It is simply un-American to criticize the incoming president of the United States in a time of war. Attacks on Obama threaten our troops and hurt our chances of success. Shame on you."
Good one, GaryB. Think I might stroll over to a couple of Con sites and drop that around in their blogs, too.
Was I the only one who saw the article posted at HuffPost a few days ago, claiming that McCain was foregoing the 72 hour strategy in favor of an all-air war? Did I hallucinate that?
So if the ground game looks nonexistent this weekend, that may be why...
Watch Indiana on election night. Polls are showing a dead heat here and we haven't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in '64. Most of our polls close at 6pm EST. Some most notably over by Chicago close at 6pm CST. But presumably they'll start counting in many areas at 6pm EST, so we may have results before Virginia.
If Indiana goes to Obama, most likely we'll be seeing a landslide nationally.
@ nextse7en
Do you have a link to the map of the us sized by electoral vote counts? I'm curious to see it...
The frontpage of www.mydd.com has one. When we had the maximum number of blue states for a while the red enclave started looking mighty sad.
Mind you, EC maps reflect the absurdity of millions of hidden Dems in red states and vice-versa, not a good way of thinking.
you must have "just missed them" like you did at every other mccain office.
"I am the only Democrat in the world rooting for 59 senate seats, for precisely the reason you cited. If we can manage not to completely overreach between now and 2010, and we can manage to fix much of what ails the country, we could marginalize the R's for a long long long long time."
No, you're not the only one. I am too. I'd even take 58. Then we'd be reaching across the isle every time that Sen. Snow or Sen. Collins voted with the dems.
As I was canvassing in Columbus yesterday, I came across three McCain people placing door hangers in a blue-dominant area. One of these fine people had taken the time to carefully write in large lettering across the back of her white T-Shirt "Death before Dishonor". Should I have said something?? They all wore "Joe" labels, too. Transgendered paid volunteer door hanger people for McSame? I appreciate the RNC reaching across narrow gender lines in this way...opens all our hearts and minds.
Aside from all the PUMA bashing, perhaps it would be helpful to note that the majority of PUMAS could NEVER vote for an anti-choice candidate. I'm a PUMA, and McCain was Never going to have my vote. I was planning to write in Hillary Clinton as my protest. Then came Palin, the anti-Hillary. Trust me, the PUMAs are NOT inclined to vote Repub this year. We're either voting Obama, write in, third party, or leaving President blank. We will all join up with HilPac and bide our time to help push through Clinton's agenda, whether it be in concert with Obama in the Senate under an Obama Admin, or laying the groundwork for another run in the future. The argument of "PUMAS will vote McCain because Palin has breasts" is stupid. We like Hillary's platform, what her proposals are. She just happens to be female? Great. Icing on the cupcake. Palin is opposite everything we believe in. Are we pissed at the manipulations during the primary season? Yes. Will we work from within to reform the system and evict some dead weight? Yes. Will be support Palin? Hell, no.
~FL PUMA.
WV: surie. What Palin said to McCain during the meeting after her prank call.
The idea you are trying to promote may very well be right, but don't base it on this photo. Come on -- do you even know where Santa Rosa Beach is? It's in the panhandle, in a strongly Republican and sparsely populated beachside community. I would hope McCain would be spending his limited funds in more profitable areas. Let's try to be a bit more unbiased.
We got the Rev. Wright commercial last night (Saturday) in prime time.
In California.
If the McCain thinks spending their dwindling dollars on prime time advertising in CALIFORNIA is good stewardship of their OWN money, what are they going to do when they get their hands on tax dollars?
And Obama is the threat to tax payer's money?
In CO, went to the vote protection training yesterday. It was the last session of 7 or so. The auditorium was packed, at least 400-450 people. All volunteers, many from out of state too. The campaign has teams set up to do voter comfort work, distribute food and drinks outside, to do vote protection outside (to get rid of fake INS agents, cops parked by polling sites, etc) and vote protection inside for using the wrong ID rules, improper challenges, etc and to monitor the machine calibration and counts at the start and the end. They are so well organized here, and even in my red county, our local Obama office is hopping all day and late into the night...every day. It is truly amazing. I checked out the mccain website, and there are NO events scheduled within 10 miles.
We know here that many of the mail in ballots didn't get sent out to voters, or were sent out too late (sequoya was the contractor all counties used to send them, and didn't get it done) so there will be heavy voting most likely, but, early voting has been remarkable here too. Hoping this helps with the lines, but it should be interesting tuesday none the less.
That's funny Nancy D.
McCain shouldn't spend a dime in Calif. The majority of us are voting Obama. In my neighborhood your need a yard sign if you are voting McCain. No sign needed if you are voting Obama. ANd there are only a few McCain signs here and there. Ha! Love it.
@ eve:
nickname, give us some more insight into what you see happening in McCain's ground game. What state are you in? Do you see more enthusiasm than 2004? Less? Same?
I am in a state that did not go for Bush in 2000 or 2004. The polls say it is very unlikely to go for McCain in 2008. However, in 2004, it was considered "in play," and in 2008 it is not, so we are seeing a lot less effort by the national campaign here this year -- which is actually quite liberating, because us old-timers know how to get out the vote and don't need a lot of campaign kiddies from out-of-state trying to tell us what to do.
The enthusiasm level among the volunteers is as high as in 2004, and higher than in 2000. We do have other races in our state that are closer than McCain-Obama and we know that our GOTV will help in those, even if Mr McCain does not win our state. I would say we probably have fewer volunteers than 2004 -- the number of hard-core-committed volunteers is probably the same, but we have fewer casual volunteers who only drop in for a few hours -- but we have way more volunteers than 2000. Unlike the Ds, we do not have that vast pool of union apparatchiks to draw from -- our GOTV effort here is 99 percent volunteer with 1 percent paid, while theirs is mostly paid SEIU minions.
(Sidebar observation from someone who has done this for a while: The support of the unions is much more central to the Democrats' political machine that the support of the evangelicals is to the Republicans'. But from press reports you would think it was the other way 'round. The evangelicals pick and choose which candidates they will support and work for, while the unions will get [by intimidation if necessary, say my union friends] their people out to work for the Democrats every time.)
Anyway, regarding the Saturday night thing: If you have to be working at 11:00 on a Saturday night, you have not planned your work very well.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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