FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 3??

11.04.2008

3??

by Nate Silver @ 10:22 PM

The networks, rightly, are being conservative about their calls this year, but the outstanding vote certainly looks to be an Obama-friendly one in Virginia and to a lesser extent Indiana.

78 comments

Michael said...: First!; November 4, 2008 10:34 PM
Dean said...: first!; November 4, 2008 10:34 PM
Zack said...: 25 minutes 'til we hear those words.; November 4, 2008 10:35 PM
Set said...: Come on Indiana! If we've got major outstanding vote from the IU campus and Lake county...oh ye gods. It's got such a good chance of being blue.; November 4, 2008 10:35 PM
William said...: I'm so ready for VA to go Blue. Whoo hoo!; November 4, 2008 10:36 PM
Chris said...: McCain has opened up a small lead in North Carolina. What are the odds he will hold on to it?; November 4, 2008 10:37 PM
WheelDancer said...: Let's hope the Obama-friendly vote continues. I, for one, am giddy with excitement and overflowing with hope that we can get back to being the honorable global citizen I grew up believing we were.; November 4, 2008 10:37 PM
Steve said...: I'm surprised Florida hasn't been called. Most of Palm Beach County hasn't been counted yet, and Obama's already +3 with about 75% reporting.

Amazed McCain took Okalossa (Pensacola) County by only 57-42, that's Navy country.; November 4, 2008 10:38 PM
T-Balls said...: Nate, you've been a salve to my worried mind for a month now. Keep up you excellence!; November 4, 2008 10:38 PM
David R said...: IT'S A DONE DEAL!!!

Congratulations President Obama and Vice President Obama!!!; November 4, 2008 10:38 PM
alafair said...: I have been watching my home state of NC...it's soooo close... O49.47/M49.60 looks like a nail biter here. At least we got rid of the horrific dole!

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/12962/en/summary.html

WV - ooties. McCain is giving my state ooties!; November 4, 2008 10:38 PM
goatdan said...: Wow does it look like the 538 predictions are going to be *extremely* close to reality. Congrats, Nate!; November 4, 2008 10:39 PM
Rebekka said...: So disappointed in NC (my home state)...; November 4, 2008 10:39 PM
Cargo2007 said...: VA going blue....I'm soooo proud!; November 4, 2008 10:39 PM
LJay said...: so we won VA?

and FLA has repented for what we did in 2000; November 4, 2008 10:40 PM
El Oso said...: Come on FL! Come on VA! Come on NC!!!; November 4, 2008 10:40 PM
David said...: It is sad that only fake PK showed up.

It looks like CO is pretty solid for Obama.

Any word on the concession speeches by McCryptKeeper and CaribouBarbie?

I can't wait until they claim that they ran a positive, issue focused campaign.

WV-lompsy How McCain supporters are feeling.; November 4, 2008 10:40 PM
Dan said...: The networks will wait until the top of the hour when they can project California and its big 55 electoral votes. Game over. Go President Obama!!!; November 4, 2008 10:40 PM
Dorky Dad said...: Don't forget Florida. Eight years ago they might have projected Florida by now, because the districts that remain are heavy Obama districts.; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
Tommy said...: i was at the rally last night
VA, The real VA is blue
its a beautiful day to be alive; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
Sedi said...: I kept telling people not to give up on VA. I think it is very likely that Obama carries it, based on the outstanding precincts. Even parts of the real VA voted for Obama.; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
Stacie said...: I'm no Nate Silver (but I am a University of Chicago alum!) but I agree on VA and IN: the county-level percentages are really interesting, and suggest that Obama has some votes coming If I were a betting woman, I'd call them both for Obama.

And Nate, Sean, as a long time lurker, first time commentator, thank you for this blog. It has been a lifesaver.; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
cane said...: Two concepts, three words

Katrina
Abu Ghraib; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
Jake said...: why on earth is foxnews calling california for mccain on their website wtih 0% reporting!?

desperation.; November 4, 2008 10:41 PM
PeteKent said...: Obama will win FL and NC. Charlotte will do it for Obama. Broward and Palm Beach will do it for him there.

In is in some doubt, but Lake Cy should do it for Obama.

Obama won suburbanites handily.; November 4, 2008 10:42 PM
matt said...: According to the MSNBC and CNN websites there is literally one county left to count in Virginia. ONE!; November 4, 2008 10:42 PM
Steve said...: Whoops...that should have been Escambia County, not Okaloosa. Anyway, FL's in the bag, VA should be as well given only 57% of Fairfax is in, and NC looks good with about half of Mecklenburg (Charlotte) to go.

Obama has about 20K votes to pick up in the counting in Lake County as well, so Indiana should go his way.; November 4, 2008 10:42 PM
Dr. J said...: Wow...if IN goes blue I will be gobsmacked. Overjoyed, but gobsmacked! What an amazing night -- thanks to Nate for such an amazing site.

wv: natedl Nate, Dems Love!; November 4, 2008 10:42 PM
Andy JS said...: It looks like Obama has a chance in South Dakota, even though he isn't going to win North Dakota. Arizona is also on a knife-edge according to the exit polls.; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
z0iid said...: no one wins when the country is so obviously divided. (watch the popular vote.)

what a sad, sad place this country is.; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
Becky Sharp said...: got to run...

@bex - thanks you'll be hearing from me!!!

@all - I love you all!!

so HAPPY!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
Greg said...: On NYT they have results by county...if you take the current results from each county and project them based upon the percent returned, you get a relatively safe win in Virginia for Obama, but McCain wins in Indiana and NC by ~8000 votes in each state. They'll be fun to watch!; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
Vinny said...: Um..nate...why the HELL is Landrieu close?!?!

Please say it's just republican leaning precincts reporting first.; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
El Oso said...: I love you FLORIDA!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
doblezeta said...: Fox just called VA for Obama! Woohoo!!; November 4, 2008 10:44 PM
CRLIndoland said...: VA just called on fox news for obama!; November 4, 2008 10:44 PM
Bluegirl said...: SOB GA has been called RED...

I was so hoping for an upset.

Since all the votes arent counted...there is still a chance...slim but a chance none the less; November 4, 2008 10:44 PM
igwespike said...: Lake county just updated, 91% in, Obama leads by just under 69000 votes, this is about 4000 larger differential than previously reported. 66.8 - 32.3% in Lake Co. Indiana. Tippecanoe, Monroe still have ~20% to report, also running nearly 60-40 Obama in those counties.; November 4, 2008 10:44 PM
itwasarson said...: Virginia is looking better by the minute. If you have a widget compatible browser:

http://www.clearspring.com/widgets/48d7f6bc1b4ed9f5?p=4910eb2a2b503c11; November 4, 2008 10:44 PM
Dustin said...: It appears even Drudge has called this for Obama. Screen shot his site while you can - that may be the only time you ever see a pro-Democrat looking page at the Sludge Report!; November 4, 2008 10:48 PM
morbiczer said...: Two biggest surprises to em so far:

1. Obama 15.5% ahead in Pennsylvania with about 78% of votes counted.

2. McCain 20% (!) ahead in Georgia with 78% of the votes counted.

Weren't both of these states "supposed to be" close?

It seems that Obama could persuade "Hillary voters" in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana etc., but didn't manage to make real inroads in the South.; November 4, 2008 10:54 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: Fake Virginian HAS turned the tide. The networks want people to watch after West Coast is called and after Obama speaks, unless McGrumpy and Bible Spice are going to hold the country hostage to logic and math.....; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
madamerica said...: Obama leading in IN by 9,000 votes! 94% reporting.; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
igwespike said...: Hamilton county Indiana is 100% in. This is the north suburbs of Indianapolis, the county responsible for the largest vote differential in the 2004 election (+50000 for Bush).
This year, +28000 for McCain. As far as big additional numbers for McCain goes, he's done. Call Indiana for Obama!! Hell YES! I knocked on doors today for Obama in Tippecanoe county and got some slammed in my face, this is just mind blowing!!; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
Edwina Monsoon said...: obama ahead in IN; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
matt said...: @z0iid: How much of that is the actual country and how much of that is politics in the last ~10 years? us vs them, liberals vs conservatives, real america vs not real america(?); November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
capehorn said...: VA, NC, IN, FL all about to go blue; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
NotYourBlog said...: VA just called by Stewart/Colbert...

And I think Indiana just turned for Obama.,; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: When they finally get Wayne County in and the straggling precincts from Lake, I think we edge Indiana by 5%.

Nevermind...by the time blogger let me post this, it was obsolete..; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
Sean said...: What was Real Joe's surprise?; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
Andy JS said...: The only one Obama might not win is NC. I really hope he does win it though,; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
Blue_in_CO said...: Sorry if posted already - HDnet has called VA for Obama...; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
Aunt Karen said...: Yeah, I missed Real Joe's surprise, too :(.; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
Tyson said...: Indiana says...

Don't blow off Letterman; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
thisniss said...: NC Governor Bev Purdue - that's two Dem races called, one to go!; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
Johnny said...: Say yes to Virginia.; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
Deborah said...: I have to repeat it just one more time: "FOX NEWS CALLS VIRGINIA FOR OBAMA." How sweet it is!; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
Jackie said...: NYT map says Utah is blue. I feel like I should screencap that.; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
Edwina Monsoon said...: VA for OBAMA!; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
broberts said...: CNN just called VA; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
broberts said...: CNN just called it!; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
Bruinpinoy82 said...: I'm sooooooo excited... vindication will soon be ours!!

Go Obama!!!!; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
z0iid said...: @matt - i'm not exactly sure where you are going with that statement, but that mentality will only further divide the country... "us vs them - real america vs not real america".

why does it have to be "us vs them"?; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
SHERWICK said...: VA called for Obama by CNN.
CNN also gives the election to OBMAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wv = caring

somewhat fitting I think.; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
Johnny said...: And that's it!; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
Chuck said...: I just want to congratulate you guys on the terrific work you've done with this site. This is one very cool mashup and, as someone who specialized in statistics and research design in grad school lo these many years ago, I have to say your statistical analysis tools are really quite impressive.; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
Jackie said...: It's official!!

CONGRATULATIONS TO PRESEDENT-ELECT OBAMA!!!!!!!

Yes we did.; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
SHERWICK said...: IT'S PARTY TIME FOR THE WHOLE PLANET!!!!!; November 4, 2008 11:02 PM
Zenu said...: CONGRATS PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!; November 4, 2008 11:02 PM
Commandrea said...: I just wanted to make it publicly known that the number 538 has followed me around for about ten years now, and I have spent many years looking for this site even though it just came into existence this year... Lo and Behold, I Googled 538 a while back and voila! FiveThirtyEight.com- It's true then. 538 rules the world! (Also 53 and 38 as 5+3=8, ok now I sound like a total freak, but that's okay. You'll see it too when you least expect it :) ); November 4, 2008 11:03 PM
David R said...: Whoops. I am so happy about President Obama, I forgot Vice President Biden.; November 4, 2008 11:06 PM
Bill Kidder said...: While you're celebrating tonight don't forget to give Adam Brickley a big thanks for singlehandedly getting the Pugs to pick Nailin Palin as their VP. I don't know if that guy is the genuine thing, or a bigger ratfucker than any of Nixon's henchmen were, but it was a brilliant move.; November 4, 2008 11:09 PM
Deborah said...: MSNBC is reporting McCain has called Obama to concede. SIGNED, SEALED DELIVERED....Thank You, America!; November 4, 2008 11:15 PM
Cathy said...: as an aussie watching it unfold from her computer at work, all I can say is fanbloodytastic!! You little ripper!! Bewdy!! What a pearler!
To all my American friends, the long wait it over...all hail the return of the red white and BLUE!!!; November 4, 2008 11:15 PM
David R said...: PeteKent - Last chance to say something stupid - loser.; November 4, 2008 11:24 PM
Shona said...: Another deliriously happy person from Australia !! Thanks America you have restored our faith in you.; November 4, 2008 11:55 PM
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一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^; August 28, 2009 3:29 AM

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11.04.2008

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