FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 2,077,765

11.04.2008

2,077,765

by Nate Silver @ 11:31 AM

Any guesses?

That's the total number of interviews included in all McCain-Obama polls that I have in my database this year.

Final polling update and projections coming very soon.

338 comments

John McCain is my Love Child! said...: Awesome, can't wait.; November 4, 2008 11:33 AM
Christopher said...: longest... day... ever...; November 4, 2008 11:33 AM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: Yeah, I need to take a nap...will wait for this projection though.; November 4, 2008 11:34 AM
Dave-london said...: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7700298.stm

See time 1605 and & 1559

c.mon people GOTV; November 4, 2008 11:34 AM
ThatcherW said...: That means like ... 1 in 70ish registered voters were contacted for a poll (of course, some were contacted more than once ... and some, like me, were never contacted); November 4, 2008 11:34 AM
livemild said...: okay getting nervous-sorry

mccain claims he can take NV, NM and CO which is why he is going to NV and NM today. n0 one believes that do they?; November 4, 2008 11:35 AM
Gookey said...: Quick question... what is the story with the "wv: " meme?; November 4, 2008 11:36 AM
Will said...: I thought it was going to be the number of votes Obama wins by.; November 4, 2008 11:37 AM
livemild said...: btw- i mad sweet potato pie this morning.

wv-fornic- guess its an omen on this site going porno; November 4, 2008 11:37 AM
samule said...: John McCain is my Love Child! said...

Yeah, I need to take a nap...will wait for this projection though.

how do you manage to fall asleep. I'm not even from the US and had trouble sleeping last night. I'm so unstable right now that the new battleground poll got me nervous although I should know better!; November 4, 2008 11:37 AM
Andrea said...: Your database geekery makes me just as happy as your Shakespeare geekery!; November 4, 2008 11:38 AM
Forcefield said...: wv = word verification

ULGRA!; November 4, 2008 11:38 AM
Ben said...: I can't believe the day is finally upon us. Thank you Nate for this site, it's calmed my nerves many a times.; November 4, 2008 11:38 AM
Christopher said...: McCain can't take NV, NM, or CO, let alone all 3. Try to remain calm, go vote, and enjoy the evening. I plan on making popcorn!

wv chensubl: everyone forgets the nuclear power plant that didn't melt down; November 4, 2008 11:38 AM
Milly said...: wv=exiteduc. Nate gives us info about exit polls, he provides us with exiteduc.

Will this day never end!; November 4, 2008 11:39 AM
Todd said...: please - a dedicated prediction thread for us who want to get our guesses in (:

thanks!; November 4, 2008 11:39 AM
corey :: yeroc.org said...: Alright. I'm excited for this final set of polls. Could McCain get any lower than 1.9 win percentage?; November 4, 2008 11:39 AM
d said...: wow ok post the final predictions soon.... cant wait for tonight!

wv- oh bummer- wat mccain and palin will be saying tonight as they watch the election results...; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
Campfires and Battlefields said...: That looks about like the number of early voters in North Carolina?; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: Samule,

Unlikely to fall asleep, but have to try. Been going way too hard for the past two weeks and my thinking is getting really fuzzy. Half an hour would be about perfect right now.; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
unrestrained said...: 2,077,765??? Jesus...I'm a first year grad student in sociology and I'm having enough problems managing the GSS for 2000-2006 in my stats class and thats only like 12,500...yikes!; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
Joe said...: @gookey - definitions for word verification teasers

swogr: How they pronounce "swagger" in the midwest; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
Jeremy said...: Gookey, it's common on many websites that require word verification (hence wv)

Those sites quite often have a bunch of people trying to get the first comment, as well, as though that means anything.; November 4, 2008 11:40 AM
Christopher said...: @ gookey - wv = word verification i.e. the "word" you have to type for a post to appear... some people like to have fun with it, playing an impromptu Balderdash-esque game; November 4, 2008 11:41 AM
JC said...: As I worked it out last night...

McCain is setting up for a last-second field goal, having driven from his own 5 to Obama's 20. With 1 second left on the clock, he's about to snap...but nobody knows how far down he is. Polls claim about a touchdown.

Of course, McCain could miss the field goal and it would be moot, and Obama has a good chance to block it and return it for another TD.; November 4, 2008 11:41 AM
gregpsufan said...: A good sign - Penn State students lined up at 7AM to vote.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Whc4OmprF2s&eurl; November 4, 2008 11:41 AM
Jonathan said...: corey :: yeroc.org said...

Alright. I'm excited for this final set of polls. Could McCain get any lower than 1.9 win percentage?

Yes! If he loses, his chance of winning will reach 0%.; November 4, 2008 11:42 AM
Flo said...: ARG Final National Poll...

O: 53
M: 45; November 4, 2008 11:42 AM
Ben said...: dave-london:

People DO have jobs, you know?

Also, I've seen a bunch of video of long lines in Florida and VA. I've talked to many friends in VA who have dealt with lines. Relax. GOTV is happening.; November 4, 2008 11:42 AM
sfergus483 said...: Lots of comments last thread on the Palin "my ballot is private" comment.

The OBVIOUS reason is that she didn't want to say for whom she voted for Senator.

She probably voted for Stevens, and since she publicly called for his resignation, that would be news.; November 4, 2008 11:42 AM
Yvonne said...: livemild, they just said on MSNBC that they don't have too long lines in Colorado, because they think already 70% of voters have cast their vote in early voting. 70%!!!; November 4, 2008 11:43 AM
Pot Kettle Black said...: top 25?

That's an impressive survey group, even cycled over time as it has been. I wonder, will the pollsters learn anything from the results, or will it be off to new polls tomorrow (maybe a Chambliss/Martin run off?).

We can only hope they get better or that we can throw the whole thing out and get back to being focused on issues rather than horse races (no offense Nate, but really, the numbers should be second to the content).

PS- Nate, wife agrees you are a little Robotic on Olberman. Wife thinks it's the glasses. I contrast it with the Dan Rather where you are very human. I'm not sure what the difference is.

WV: butom:
1- Sarah Palin's answer to the Jeopardy question: What country sits between India and Tibet.
2- McCain's position among major party candidates in this election.; November 4, 2008 11:43 AM
Jonathan said...: The OBVIOUS reason is that she didn't want to say for whom she voted for Senator.

Has anyone suggested the ever amusing idea that she wrote herself in for president?; November 4, 2008 11:44 AM
livemild said...: thanks christopher-

i voted early about two weeks ago.
in nm so i hope it matters.

mccain was here in roswell last night and sounds like most here were unimpressed. joked about aliens...
people in roswell are tired of martian jokes-someone should have told him to lay off that line a little; November 4, 2008 11:44 AM
p smith said...: Relax people. Obama has already won Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada through running up huge leads in early voting (though I would strongly urge anyone in those states who has not voted to do so because you can be sure that the GOP scum will get their vote out).

Provided Obama holds the Kerry states (in particular NH and PA) that will give him 278 EVs and the election. It is only if McCain can snag PA that he even gets into the game. In that eventually Obama would need to pick up one of Virginia, Ohio, Florida etc. But look, McCain has not led in a single poll of PA.

This is just the way it is and while we will all be shitting ourselves this evening waiting for the first results to come in, a fair wind is blowing my friends.; November 4, 2008 11:44 AM
Sam said...: Did you see the security guard at the polling station in Wasila show Pailin the door? She spent extra time talking to people in line, inside the polling station, then walks to one side where i guess she was going to park herself until the guard came up and pointed her to the door. I love that security guard!

GO... GO... GO... O... O... OBAMA!; November 4, 2008 11:45 AM
Joseph said...: Can't wait for the last update!

Thanks for your hard work Nate!!; November 4, 2008 11:45 AM
Ben Byrne said...: That figure's likely to be the total number of unique visits you get in the next few hours, too...; November 4, 2008 11:46 AM
Barack Obama said...: god, i feel like a kid waiting for christmas morning! does anybody else feel like this???; November 4, 2008 11:46 AM
samule said...: John McCain is my Love Child! said...

Samule,

Unlikely to fall asleep, but have to try. Been going way too hard for the past two weeks and my thinking is getting really fuzzy. Half an hour would be about perfect right now.

---

I could definitely need some sleep, am already thinking about taking a day off tomorrow since we'll probably get the results between 5 and 7 am here.

wv: gatcha, ya can't hide from me main stream media; November 4, 2008 11:47 AM
Real Joe said...: alafair said...
Datapoint from SC - I have a friend who has now been in line for over 2 hours to vote.

In Pitt County, NC 48% of registered voters voted early.

DAMN.; November 4, 2008 11:48 AM
goatdan said...: Nate, as always great work. Thanks for feeding my addiction past what it ever has been in the past. Although bad in the past, I used to get some semblance of work done at nights. This year, not so much.

Anywho, I'm very curious to see what happens. In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we voted and stood in a surprisingly long line. Our voting place is always extremely efficient (longest line before today was four people deep, I kid you not). Today, the line went out of the building and halfway down the block. After about 35 minutes (we showed up before it opened so really about 20 minutes), we voted and all seemed to go well. There were at least four Election Observers at our location.

According to the machine that tallies the number of ballots, today I was voter 100. Generally, I vote later in the day and end up around number 1900-2000. Could be a huge day.

I do think the polls are going to be relatively far off this cycle. The combination of Obama's amazing ground game, enthusiasm that he has amongst the volunteers and others, and the extremely low approval ratings for the current administration and the complete and utter ineptitude of the McCain campaign, I think that this could be a bigger landslide than anticipated. And I think that any so-called "Bradley Effect" will be outweighed by those voters who vote just because of the novel idea of having a black person as the President.

I won't be surprised if Obama wins this with 58% or more of the vote overall, and at least 375+ EV.

Maybe after the election, there could be a piece on here about the worst run presidential campaigns of the last 28 or so years, and we could all weigh in to see where McCain fits. It's kind of sad to think that McCain -- someone I probably would have voted for in 2000 over Gore -- is going to leave this disgrace of a campaign as his lasting legacy.; November 4, 2008 11:48 AM
MrInsight22 said...: That is one out of 60 of the voters expected today.

ABC and MSNBC reported that Barack waited outside his polling place this morning before going in after he learned William Ayers was in there already voting. Louis Farrakhan also voted at that polling place, Shoesmith Elementary.; November 4, 2008 11:49 AM
Gookey said...: Ah... playing with the CAPTCHA. Cool stuff.; November 4, 2008 11:49 AM
Shain said...: The polls in NH are swamped. There are buses (we don't usually have much Public Transportation) loading up with people and dropping them off at polling stations every 10 minutes. It's just an unbelievable turn out, especially the youth turn out.

NH is going Obama.; November 4, 2008 11:49 AM
cronaldo said...: For something to do while waiting for the results to start, look through the .pdfs on the link below, the document from the Federal Election Commission listing donors to the National Republican Trust PAC, the 527 that put out the national ads featuring Jeremiah Wright.

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00455378; November 4, 2008 11:49 AM
Real Joe said...: long lines in Indiana; November 4, 2008 11:50 AM
RWD said...: Real Joe, did I miss the surprise?; November 4, 2008 11:50 AM
chronosynclastic infundibulum said...: More obama haiku:

bush leaves drop like flies
vote now for november man
barack obama; November 4, 2008 11:50 AM
Alan D said...: Early votes in Georgia?; November 4, 2008 11:51 AM
JDA said...: I'm getting nothing done today, and my F5 key is just about worn out.; November 4, 2008 11:51 AM
goatdan said...: @ jc - "McCain is setting up for a last-second field goal, having driven from his own 5 to Obama's 20. With 1 second left on the clock, he's about to snap...but nobody knows how far down he is. Polls claim about a touchdown.

Of course, McCain could miss the field goal and it would be moot, and Obama has a good chance to block it and return it for another TD."

Hahaha! That's genius!; November 4, 2008 11:51 AM
cr said...: I forgot my WV! This one is a LAYUP!

wv=MacAte - I can't give a definition but I can use it in a sentence:

Mac ate crow on November 5th.; November 4, 2008 11:51 AM
jason said...: Thank you for all of your hard work. This site has been a wonderful outlet for my math geeking on polls. (Not to mention the statistics that you've posted are about the only thing allowing me to sleep at night!)

Of course, I'm still nervous about the GOP cheating...; November 4, 2008 11:52 AM
Real Joe said...: big turnout in NH; November 4, 2008 11:52 AM
slicknickshady said...: lol at thwe haiku.; November 4, 2008 11:52 AM
Luke said...: Early voting statstics in Georgia:
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm; November 4, 2008 11:53 AM
PorridgeGun said...: Greg Palast, who I consider the leading expert on electoral fraud, said last night that a guaranteed 6 million votes have been wiped out by Republican Secretaries of State, most notably in Georgia, Colorado, New Mexico and Indiana. Palast said Colorado's Secreatry of State has been stone-walling him for weeks, and Indiana's Secretary of State should be in prison. He's a criminal, plain and simple.

Indiana is gone for Obama, probably Colorado, also. Tom Udall will likely lose the senate race. A shitload of congressional seats will be flipped to Republicans. The only thing that can stop this is if the turnout exceeds even the record numbers that have been predicted, and if voters are smart. DON'T ACCEPT A PROVISIONAL BALLOT. DEMAND A REAL BALLOT. And kick up fuck if they refuse you one.

How McCain Could Win

http://www.gregpalast.com/section/articles/

http://www.truthout.org/110308A

Steal Back Your Vote

http://www.stealbackyourvote.org/

This Election's Katherine Harris, Glenda Hood and Ken Blackwell

Indiana Secretary of State: Todd Rokita

http://www.in.gov/sos/

Colorado Secretary of State: Mike Coffman

http://www.sos.state.co.us/

Georgia Secretary of State: Karen Handel

http://sos.georgia.gov/

And before people atart... Greg Palast has been proven right every time. He was the first investigative journalist to break the voter fraud in Florida 2000, was the first to expose "caging" in 2004, not to mention electoral fraud in Mexico. He even nailed the 2006 midterms, which were similar to this election. The Democrats were cheated out of a few senate seats.

Remember, for a while it looked like the Dems wouldn't even win a majority in the senate. Both the Virginia and Montana races were squeakers for Webb and Tester.

Palast is supremely confident it's at least 6 million votes... AT LEAST. And Republican Secretaries of State in Indiana, Colorado and Georgia are the biggest crooks. He said it won't be enough to swing the election, but Obama and the Democrats power to govern will be diminished as a result of state, congressional and senate races Obama and the Democrats won being flipped.

He said that the only way to stop this is if Democratic turnout is staggering, and that voters are equipped to deal with Republican tactics. Palast was clear - Don't accept a provisional ballot. Demand a REAL ballot. They'll eventually give it up. Tell anyone who hasn't voted yet!; November 4, 2008 11:53 AM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: To express something
In seventeen syllables
Can be very diff...

Limerick:

There once was a turd named mule rider
Whose ass could not have been wider
He was often obscene
In truth rather mean
But as a whore quite the provider.

Limerick:

There once OHHHHHH FUCK BEES!; November 4, 2008 11:53 AM
Dave said...: I JUST VOTED!

Yes, it was for Obama. And Al Franken.

(it feels kind of silly that my first post is on election day, but hey I thought I needed to get it out there.; November 4, 2008 11:54 AM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: McCain's touchdown/field goal is like Don Beebe swiping the ball away from a gloating Leon Lett. Nice image, meant nothing!!

wv - lecloge, one of the Montreal DJ's that punked Bible Spice!!!!; November 4, 2008 11:54 AM
Juris said...: UNDERVOTES

That figure is pretty close to the number of "undervotes" for president in recent elections.

This includes people who did not vote for the presidential ticket, or whose vote was messed up, but did vote for downticket offices.

That was roughly the figure that the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project calculated in 2000.

wv: unies (undies? as in "undervotes"?); November 4, 2008 11:54 AM
Mason said...: ABC and MSNBC reported that Barack waited outside his polling place this morning before going in after he learned William Ayers was in there already voting. Louis Farrakhan also voted at that polling place, Shoesmith Elementary.

MSM, GOP: OMFG!! BARACK OSAMA VOTES AT THE SAME PLACE AS HIS NEIGHBOR WILLIAM AYERS!!! OMFG!! TRAITOR!!!

Rest of us: *Yawn*; November 4, 2008 11:55 AM
Bronxx said...: Nate - When all is said and done, will you do a comparison between actual results (final tabulation margins) against what your model predicted for each state?

Also, was there a post somewhere in the past regarding how "Already Voted" people are counted with regards to "Likely Voters"? If someone who's already voted is polled, are they counted as 100% "Likely" or are they not counted in the poll at all? Wouldn't high early-voting turnout (as we've seen) have a serious impact on polling either way?; November 4, 2008 11:55 AM
Mrs B said...: porridge gun, will you STOP with the Greg Palast stuff.

Get a grip.; November 4, 2008 11:55 AM
Peter said...: It's official. My fear of what I'll do once 538 is done reporting on the election officially outweighed my fear that we'd elect McCain/Palin this morning.

I feel funny.; November 4, 2008 11:56 AM
goatdan said...: @ rwd -- Maybe the surprise was that Bin Ladin didn't say a darn thing this time around... I know I'm at least a little surprised by that.; November 4, 2008 11:57 AM
rodrett said...: rawstory.com is reporting there are serious voting issues in Richmond, VA. I have every confidence Obama will win but as we can see, republicans will stop at nothing to deny the will of the people.; November 4, 2008 11:58 AM
macona7 said...: One of my best friends at work who I've been bugging for weeks to vote for Obama (lifelong Repub) just called me to tell me he, with a bad case of bronchitis, stood in a huge line to vote for Obama! Yay!

Go VA! Barack the vote and turn Virginia blue! Yes we can!; November 4, 2008 11:59 AM
Mrs B said...: There was a young man named Obama
Who wished his supporters were calmer,
There's no need to shout,
Just get the vote out
And no Palin will be able to harm yer.; November 4, 2008 11:59 AM
Dave said...: @Peter

I feel funny.

I agree... today is going to leave a big pile of nerves by this evening. I'm confident Obama will win, but I'm nervous about a potential surprise.

Well, I did my part, and can only hope things go our way for once. =); November 4, 2008 11:59 AM
Forcefield said...: Freepers excited about a poll this morning that gives McCain the lead:

The online Regis and Kelly poll.

Too funny.; November 4, 2008 12:01 PM
Sarah Clark said...: I *so* should have taken today off...I can't focus on anything for more than 15 minutes at a stretch.; November 4, 2008 12:02 PM
mizack2 said...: goatdan said...
@ rwd -- Maybe the surprise was that Bin Ladin didn't say a darn thing this time around... I know I'm at least a little surprised by that.

-------

The Day is young.; November 4, 2008 12:02 PM
Hopeful in NJ said...: And I am exactly one of them.; November 4, 2008 12:03 PM
timschel said...: Anyone know which state Pollster moved back into tossup? O is now sitting at 291; November 4, 2008 12:03 PM
ialex said...: Over 1000 students in line at Penn State by 7AM; November 4, 2008 12:04 PM
Forcefield said...: chuck todd = gingerballs; November 4, 2008 12:04 PM
rodrett said...: timschel, I'm pretty sure it was Ohio.; November 4, 2008 12:04 PM
Real Joe said...: forcefield said...
chuck todd = gingerballs

LOL; November 4, 2008 12:05 PM
Shap said...: Today is the day
That the country is given
back to the people

splash; November 4, 2008 12:05 PM
rodrett said...: Chuck Todd has no balls. The guy is a republican whipping boy.; November 4, 2008 12:06 PM
boulder-liberal said...: @porridgegun

Please take your concern shit somewhere else. We are celebrating an historic day here. Obama will win at least 311 EVs, probably much more.; November 4, 2008 12:06 PM
Forcefield said...: good afternoon real joe.

what is the november surprise?; November 4, 2008 12:06 PM
Real Joe said...: Intrade Obama

93.7; November 4, 2008 12:06 PM
goatdan said...: @ mizack2 -- But if Bin Ladin came out with a tape right *now*, it would probably still take a few hours for the news to pick it up and carry the news, and it would be taking a backseat to the election day stuff. I was relatively certain yesterday would have been his day, now I'm hoping the old bag got sick and died in his cave.

Regardless, I definitely think it is too late to sway the results of the election.; November 4, 2008 12:07 PM
broberts said...: goatdan said...
"@ rwd -- Maybe the surprise was that Bin Ladin didn't say a darn thing this time around... I know I'm at least a little surprised by that."

It would only have reminded voters of the utter failure of the administration to track him down. Given McCain's strong backing of Iraq, such a release would have worked against the Republicans, not helped them.; November 4, 2008 12:07 PM
Forcefield said...: You know what would rule? Obama wins landslide, then an hour later, "Whitey Tape" drops.

so many exploding balls.; November 4, 2008 12:08 PM
WakeUpEverybody said...: Nate, Sean and Brett -

You guys are the best. I've voted and there was no line or wait at all (PA burbs outside of Philly.

So now it's the waiting game. Nerves are firing!!!!!!

WV - pagostra - what we'll eat if PA goes blue; November 4, 2008 12:08 PM
Bobby said...: I wish there was some way to determine if a pollster was accurate over time and not just judge use his last poll results. Look at some of the polls that coalesced to the mean yesterday and today... if they are close they will then claim how accurate they were. In fact how do we know polls like IBD were not being manipulated to drive the narrative?

In case you do not believe pollsters do this... I know of a very specific example of this, albeit in another country. This affected far and away the most prestigious firm in that country. It was not done by the firm per se, by one of the staff without knowledge of the firm. One of the persons that conducted the interviews simply filled in the numbers after conducting a few interviews.

I know this because I have known the person who did this as a very close friend for nearly 40 years. This is why I posted my comment yesterday about polls suspiciously coalescing to the mean at the end. Pollsters may simply be cooking the books to be near the mean. In polling their is no sin in getting the final number wrong... the sin is being the only one that got it wrong. If everyone gets it wrong, you can just come up with a theory as to why everyone was wrong and your reputation is maintained.

Food for thought for everyone. Just ignore the polls and vote.; November 4, 2008 12:08 PM
mizack2 said...: @forcefield

HAHAHAHAHA, what would be funnier is if Obama is inaugerated on 01/20/09 with Rev Wright by his side.; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
KMartDad said...: How low can McCain realistically be expected to go on Intrade? He's at 8 now. 8!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
Manoj in Bangalore said...: It's finally time for the $150000 wardrobe of Sarah Palin and her family, to be donated to charity. Any idea about which charity the RNC is donating it to?; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
WakeUpEverybody said...: I forgot to say that I will miss this site and the daily numerous check - ins.

WV - setiss - game, match, over when we win!; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
Sarah Clark said...: I'd like to thank 538 for among other things, (like my temporary loss of sanity and the injection of terms like "crosstabs" and "standard deviation" into my daily language) educating me enough about the strengths and weaknesses of polls that I can tell genuine issues of concern from concern trolling.

pesin: Come tomorrow, Palin won't have a political pot to...never mind, too easy.; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
PorridgeGun said...: Obama working the phones in Indiana.

McCain still trying to figure out how these ballot thingies work in Arizona.; November 4, 2008 12:10 PM
Tyson said...: 'chuck todd = gingerballs'

Chuck Todd= Murray from Flight of the Conchords

Listen up...Band roll call, everyone'; November 4, 2008 12:12 PM
DanP said...: O'Canada!

Okay, nervous nellies.

The Big O is going to win.

However, to calm your nerves, take a look at this to give your sleepy heads a little laugh. What might happen to you if Obama didn't win? Bad dream?

Enjoy! and Relax!

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid271557392/bctid1842856410

Nate! A big thanks from me!; November 4, 2008 12:12 PM
rodrett said...: wakeupeverybody said:
"...no line or wait at all (PA burbs outside of Philly."

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Sounds like you're saying low voter turnout in Philly. This is not good for Obama.

Again I hate to sound concerned but shouldn't we be expecting large lines in Philadelphia.; November 4, 2008 12:12 PM
Jay said...: Voted this morning in Harlem. Elderly woman behind me in line said that she hadn't waited in such a long line to vote since Kennedy.

My haiku:

New York Post Headlines
now passe. Blog headlines shout:
"Barack FTW!"; November 4, 2008 12:12 PM
mizack2 said...: Last night, I was at a Nine Inch Nails concert here in Greensboro, NC. Near the end of the set, Trent is thanking everyone for attending the event, and explains that this will be the last time he ever plays "THIS" song with "THIS" as the background image.

"The Hand that Feeds" queues up, with a giant image of George W Bush and John McCain on the big screen behind the band, and the ENTIRE ARENA goes NUTS! I looked over to my friend and say "Wow.. this turned into an Obama rally out of no where!"; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
Tyson said...: Manoj in Bangalore said...
It's finally time for the $150000 wardrobe of Sarah Palin and her family, to be donated to charity. Any idea about which charity the RNC is donating it to?
-----------------------------------
I can't wait to see the Alaska homeless running around with Louis Vitton bags; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
J. Capp said...: My 18 y/o brother voted in Pensacola, FL today. He's one of those "too cool to care/vote" kids.

This election must be different if he voted.

He voted for Obama, by the way. Our parents (Republicans for McCain) drove with him to the polling place. When my mom joked at him "It's okay, I voted for the wrong person in my first election, too," my brother quipped, "and now you're KNOWINGLY voting for the wrong person?"

wv: tiesch - obama's gonna tiesch mccain a lesson!; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
goatdan said...: @ broberts -- Although I agree with what you're saying, McCain has said that he isn't Bush, and the Repubs / McCain have been ranked higher in national security / foreign policy this cycle, which I think would have still made it tip toward them a little more.; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
Wallaby said...: NATE FUCKING SILVER; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
bryen193 said...: "ABC and MSNBC reported that Barack waited outside his polling place this morning before going in after he learned William Ayers was in there already voting. Louis Farrakhan also voted at that polling place, Shoesmith Elementary."

Looks like Barack was right. Ayers: A guy in Obama's Neighborhood.; November 4, 2008 12:13 PM
vkngwmnNJ said...: THe RNC should donate the wardrobe funds to the special olympics since she cut the state funding for them in AK.; November 4, 2008 12:14 PM
Yvonne said...: I hope everyone of you is either canvassing later today or phonebanking instead of just blogging.
I will be phonebanking starting 11 am here in California.; November 4, 2008 12:15 PM
Sarah Clark said...: @rodrett

*burbs*. Philly *burbs*. If its like most cities, the urban core is blue with increasing red out to the fringes. To me that's a sign that the Repubs may be staying home.; November 4, 2008 12:15 PM
Chi said...: Palin: "I Hope, Pray, Believe I Will Be Able to Wake Up As Vice President-Elect"

Let's see if God will answer that one.; November 4, 2008 12:15 PM
PorridgeGun said...: Sky News are so ignorant it's embarrasing. Their electoral map "expert" just said Obama was expected to WIN Pennsylvania during the primaries, but Clinton beat him. And that's good news for John McCain. For fuck's sake, Hillary was like double digits in front before a single vote was cast. That's why Obama was in TX.

Or was it OH, and Obama was in TX???

Anyway, Watch the Presidential Campaign in a Minute!!!

http://www.236.com/video/2008/watch_presidential_campaign_in_9955.php; November 4, 2008 12:16 PM
Bowie Shopper said...: Long lines in Bowie, MD. We do not have early voting in MD, the issue is on this ballot. Waited in long line and voted all within one hour. Interestingly, 99% of voters support Obama-Biden. Not even ONE McCain Palin sign anywhere to be seen. They are taking extra care of the elderly and infirm. Slow dizzle. Voters are out in force and undaunted!

Headed to campaign office to see if there I can get some folks to the polls.

Obama - Biden '08!; November 4, 2008 12:16 PM
vkngwmnNJ said...: NIN is still touring???;); November 4, 2008 12:16 PM
Buddha1 said...: Awesome job Nate!

Just Voted. There was many people in line. It looks like Minnesota will be Blue. Also voted for Al Franken just to make Rush Limbaugh mad.

Go Obama!; November 4, 2008 12:16 PM
SEGi said...: Polls are good--if the participants are a representative sample. Do we have any comparison showing poll results vs. vote results over time to see if the polling was accurate (for each poll, each poll at a particular date, etc...)?

Any stats showing if any particular poll is more accurate than others at a given time/date?

What dictated my vote? I like 1/2 of each candidate, but I hated the calls to my house. The "Do Not Call" list does not prohibit political callers, and I think it should. Don't you? I mean I answered a call from a "computer," and I interrupted that call to take a call from ... (you guessed it) ... another computer caller.

It isn't who I am voting FOR as much as it is who I am NOT voting for...

I am so tired of each side saying "Change" when they both pull the old party line. New faces, sure. Change? Not so sure.

Sad if you ask me.; November 4, 2008 12:17 PM
PA John said...: Please correct me if I'm wrong. Sounds like you're saying low voter turnout in Philly. This is not good for Obama.

He said BURBS, and in PA there are usually several polling places in a town.; November 4, 2008 12:18 PM
rodrett said...: Thanks for the clarification sarah clark.; November 4, 2008 12:18 PM
RWD said...: "burbs*. Philly *burbs*. If its like most cities, the urban core is blue with increasing red out to the fringes. To me that's a sign that the Repubs may be staying home"

not necessarily. another thing about the suburbs is that they are usually better funded than urban cores. thus more polling machines, more polling places, shorter lines.; November 4, 2008 12:18 PM
Voice of the Midwest said...: "Chuck Todd has no balls. The guy is a republican whipping boy." (Rodrett)

Lay off, Chuck. He is smart enough to know that over-reaching either way is like the weatherman predicting a blizzard in October.

When it happens, if it happens, he will not look like an ass for sticking his neck out so far.; November 4, 2008 12:18 PM
mizack2 said...: vkngwmnNJ said...
NIN is still touring???;)

--------

YEP! After the song Trent Reznor goes "Something fucking INCREDIBLE is going to happen to America tomorrow!"; November 4, 2008 12:19 PM
Johnkel24 said...: My polling location, Immanuel Lutheran Church, even made the national news already. Yay!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/04/wrong-registration-books-in-kansas-city/

Finally got to vote this morning after waiting a couple of hours in line.
The reason for the long wait was that the election office sent out the wrong voter books for our precinct. We had to wait until 8 am this morning for the election officials to correct the error, find our books, and switch them out. The line stretched down the street, but everyone waited. Some had been waiting since 5:45 am.
Roasterie Coffee Co. gave out free coffee for all of us, and the Obama campaign had volunteers handing out snacks.
What's funny is that my whole neighborhood turned out to vote early this morning. So by noon no one will be left to vote in our precinct. By the time I had left at 9:30 am, the line was only about 50 people out the door and shrinking fast. Poll workers were being handed ballots as fast as they could hand them out. No one bothered to wait for a privacy booth, we just filled them out whereever we stood in the room, on a wall, on a knee, on the floor.
When I was done, I walked back to my house to get in my car and go to work, and an Obama volunteer who was knocking doors to make sure everyone had voted walked up to me, checked me off the list, and thanked me for my vote. I never saw a single Republican the whole morning.; November 4, 2008 12:20 PM
Chi said...: porridgegun,

I am not too surprised about Sky News. Isn't there a connection between Sky and Rupert Murdoch (Fox News)?; November 4, 2008 12:21 PM
Beckee said...: @rodrett

I live in the Philadelphia suburbs. It's true that a lot of the suburbs are pretty red, although they have been trending more blue overall. I live in a pretty liberal college town, and there was no line around 11:30, but there never is, as we have 3 polling places for a population of 6000, and I think the turnout here will be very high, as people are really engaged. I have heard that lines in Philadelphia are really long.; November 4, 2008 12:21 PM
vkngwmnNJ said...: How patriotic Mule to wish your country failure.
Go away pos.; November 4, 2008 12:21 PM
David said...: i'm so nervous i can't even tell you!; November 4, 2008 12:22 PM
Bruce said...: Just so you know, guys... State law in Pennsylvania requires that each division within a ward cover at most 1200 people and while there are divisions that exceed that amount in Philadelphia (16, at least, evidently), each division is allocated two voting booths. The upstart is that lines move quickly and smoothly -- the ballot is even stream lined, there are only eight races and four ballot measures in Philly, for instance.

You will likely not see long lines in Pennsylvania and that is a good thing, since it means voting is not limiting people's livelihood...; November 4, 2008 12:22 PM
Steve_OH said...: @timschel

There were two changes at Pollster this morning: Ohio went from Lean Dem to Toss-up, and Colorado went from Lean Dem to Strong Dem. Notice that while the Obama total decreased from 311 to 291, the Strong Dem count went from 264 to 273.

["ovago" - A toddler's first word; he was trying to say "Obama"]; November 4, 2008 12:23 PM
rodrett said...: votm,

My opinion isn't based on him wanting to sit on the fence. That makes complete sense to me. But every time a republican starts challenging the electoral map his nuts shrivel up. The guy is an old smoothy.; November 4, 2008 12:24 PM
chris said...: sky news = murdoch = fox news

I boycott all Murdoch media, and I urge you to do the same; November 4, 2008 12:24 PM
dsalkovi said...: ""ABC and MSNBC reported that Barack waited outside his polling place this morning before going in after he learned William Ayers was in there already voting. Louis Farrakhan also voted at that polling place, Shoesmith Elementary.""

Gee, my sister lives directly across the street from Obama's precinct. 200 yards actually since it is in a park. Which puts her about 5-6 blocks from Obama's home. She voted at the same precinct an hour before Obama got there. But she didn't make it on ABC or MSNBC! My brother-in-law was interviewed by Faux News however.

The point: Hyde Park is well-known for having an exceptionally diverse population (race, religion, etc.). A cross section of the country actually. Thank goodness!!; November 4, 2008 12:26 PM
Voice of the Midwest said...: "Here's to the election and faliure of an Obama/Biden presidency so sanity can be restored before I'm out of my 30's." (MuleRider)

To be so young, cynical, and hating on hope is no way to go through life.

If you want conservatism to work, kick the Christian kooks out and take it back to the intellectual roots whence it came. Modern conservatism came about at cocktail parties on the Upper West Side of New York. It is now a party William F. Buckley wouldn't support.

In ten hours, it will be a southern-centric, nationalistic, white party with seats held only in the South and Plains states in Congress.

There is nothing conservative about the GOP any more. They sold their soul for power and may lose for a generation before getting back to right/center again. For now, they are an extreme right wing party at risk of schism right now.; November 4, 2008 12:26 PM
marco said...: goatdan: Bin Laden is DEAD. This is why he didn't show up!

WV: PARLIN - Sarah is back in Alaska parlin around with Stevens; November 4, 2008 12:27 PM
Bruce said...: Mule rider wrote:
A liberal President and supermajority of Democrats will enact failed policy after failed policy.

You wouldn't know a supermajority if your life depended upon it...

Hint: 2/3.; November 4, 2008 12:28 PM
El Oso said...: It's 6:26am Wednesday in New Zealand...

My absentee ballot it sitting, hopefully now counted, in a Florida elections box...

No way I'm getting any work done today!!!!; November 4, 2008 12:28 PM
sfergus483 said...: --I boycott all Murdoch media, and I urge you to do the same--

Does that mean you won't go to see films released by 20th Century Fox?; November 4, 2008 12:28 PM
Andy JS said...: I'm interested to know why there are large queues in some polling places. Here in the UK on election day, I think each polling place has a maximum of about 5,000 potential voters. (With a 60% turnout, that would be 3,000 actual voters spread over a 15 hours period, giving an average of 200 per hour).

Does anyone know whether the maximum number of potential voters in some polling places is much larger than this in the United States? If so, that would explain the long lines in some places.; November 4, 2008 12:28 PM
dsalkovi said...: Thank goodness for Obama/Biden! Bringing the country back from the nightmare of farthest, most hateful right-wing and worst administration in modern history. Our long national nightmare of Republican ignorance, hate and arrogance in the White House is almost over!!!; November 4, 2008 12:28 PM
CloudyFuture said...: dsalkovi said...
""ABC and MSNBC reported that Barack waited outside his polling place this morning before going in after he learned William Ayers was in there already voting. Louis Farrakhan also voted at that polling place, Shoesmith Elementary.""

Gee, my sister lives directly across the street from Obama's precinct. 200 yards actually since it is in a park. Which puts her about 5-6 blocks from Obama's home. She voted at the same precinct an hour before Obama got there. But she didn't make it on ABC or MSNBC! My brother-in-law was interviewed by Faux News however.

The point: Hyde Park is well-known for having an exceptionally diverse population (race, religion, etc.). A cross section of the country actually. Thank goodness!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Tell that to right wing nutjobs that view this as proof that they (ayers, furrakahn (SP?) and Obama) share the same views and are essentially the same person but the media is covering it up.....; November 4, 2008 12:29 PM
Herunar said...: "Blogger chris said...

sky news = murdoch = fox news

I boycott all Murdoch media, and I urge you to do the same"

You can't. It's like trying to boycott products made in China.; November 4, 2008 12:29 PM
El Oso said...: @Mule Rider

Couldn't possibly any darker than the last 8, suckah; November 4, 2008 12:29 PM
Wa7th said...: Off-campus voting nearest the Univ of Washington was about 3-4 times normal levels at 8am, and the average age of the poll workers compared to 2004 dropped from average age over 60 to average age under 40. Plenty of student poll workers, which has seldom if ever been the case in my precinct. Poll watcher was present.

wv noutic - I have a noutic from drinking too much coffee and reading 538 posts all night.; November 4, 2008 12:30 PM
PorridgeGun said...: boulder-liberal, fuck off. The last two presidential elections were stolen, and the last one was foreseen by many months in advance.

Know what, every time someone pisses and moans about the facts being posted, I'll repost it on the next thread. Maybe then it'll penetrate with the morons who think their vote is being protected.

BTW, I never said Obama wouldn't win. I'm saying there's enough voter fraud to diminish whatever power Obama will have to govern, if elected. That's what happened in 2006, and the result was the Democratic leadership having to kiss Joe Lieberman's arse. If Obama has to work with partisan Republicans, he's fucked for two years. That's what I'm getting at, dipshit.; November 4, 2008 12:30 PM
Right Wing Conspiricist said...: Hey libs, guess what?

Republican turnout is SKYROCKETING. That's right, moonbat libs, you might get high turnout but ours will be HIGHER!

Try not to riot when Obama loses, moonbats!; November 4, 2008 12:30 PM
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...: Murdock also owns the times.co.uk site, National Enquirer and The Sun. He's a tabloid sleazebag...hence Fox news.; November 4, 2008 12:30 PM
beek said...: "I'm hoping for an Obama victory and 60 Democratic senators at the very least."

The Dems will never hit 60. If they do, Lieberman will join the reps (officially), citing "the necessity to keep checks and balances intact". You can count on that.; November 4, 2008 12:30 PM
marco said...: About 8-10 hours until the BUSH NIGHTMARE IS OVER!!! OMG, this is such a historical day!!!; November 4, 2008 12:31 PM
Shap said...: Hey Mule Rider-

Why don't you amputate yourself from this great country? Come on, just take one for the team!

"Your old road is rapidly aging, so get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times, they are a' changing!"; November 4, 2008 12:31 PM
Thad said...: I have asked my wife to lay in plenty of cold beer for tonight -- either way I'm going to want it!

wv-obili -- the collective obligation of all of us voters.; November 4, 2008 12:31 PM
Andrew said...: PorridgeGun = concern troll; November 4, 2008 12:31 PM
Voice of the Midwest said...: "But every time a republican starts challenging the electoral map his nuts shrivel up. The guy is an old smoothy." (Rodrett)

I understand your point, Rodrett. However, he has the wisdom of a sage by keeping his mouth shut when the Republican pops off.

When the shit comes down, the Republican will have to live with their partisan words and look dumb. Chuck will have his silence and it will work for him whether the Republican is right OR wrong.; November 4, 2008 12:32 PM
penumbralheart said...: what kind of loser steals my yard sign the morning of the election?; November 4, 2008 12:32 PM
Bush Whacked said...: Murdoch also owns DirecTV and the Wall Street Journal. I switched to cable when he bought DirecTV.; November 4, 2008 12:32 PM
chris said...: @herunar

Yes you can. Plenty of TV channels plenty of newspapers. Even right-wing ones. You can do it.; November 4, 2008 12:33 PM
Malificent1114 said...: The nice thing about the socialism talking point is that it makes it incredibly easy for me to filter things. Someone starts to talk and mentions "the socialist candidate" or "how we're descending into socialism" and I can just quietly peacefully tune them out.; November 4, 2008 12:33 PM
El Oso said...: IGNORE THE TROLLS!!

They'll leave if they're ignored. Just pretend they're not here. Ignore their posts. Do whatever; November 4, 2008 12:33 PM
Andrew said...: Over one hour since Nate promised "Final polling update and projections coming very soon" ...; November 4, 2008 12:34 PM
oct said...: My wife and I voted today in CA for O. It took 15 minutes. My 3-yr-old son was hoping to see Obama at the polls. He was a little disappointed. Funny thing is that we used to live in the Obama & Ayers neighborhood, too. Went to church on the same corner where he cast his vote.

GOBAMA!!!; November 4, 2008 12:34 PM
chronosynclastic infundibulum said...: Limericks just have no class so i reserve them for bush, rove, etc...

There once was a jackass named bush
whose head got stuck in his tush
he called up old dick
who sprung up so quick
and gave george's head a firm push; November 4, 2008 12:34 PM
vkngwmnNJ said...: penumbraheart....A REPUBLICAN!;)
Sorry, that sucks. Ive lost 2 but bought in bulk.; November 4, 2008 12:34 PM
Voice of the Midwest said...: "My absentee ballot it sitting, hopefully now counted, in a Florida elections box..."(el oso)

Depending on what Florida county it is, your vote is either going to be counted in about ten hours or it was shredded by a Republican upon its' arrival.; November 4, 2008 12:35 PM
twopennykid said...: J. Capp said...
"My 18 y/o brother voted in Pensacola, FL today."

Hey, that's where I was born! Lived there for my first ten years, then my parents moved us to Chicago, where I still am.

Sure wish we could get the FL panhandle to go blue. Maybe it can start with your brother!

wv: unsinge -- pretty simple, huh?; November 4, 2008 12:35 PM
Waltdv1 said...: Teenagers, clean-cut young men wearing ties, handing out Democratic sample ballots outside of a polling place in Fairfax, VA (Sideburn District) tell me that they have been called 'Baby Killers' more than a few times this morning. TRB - Typical Republican Behavior.; November 4, 2008 12:35 PM
Herunar said...: "The Dems will never hit 60. If they do, Lieberman will join the reps (officially), citing "the necessity to keep checks and balances intact". You can count on that."

I doubt that. Lieberman is ideologically liberal. He may have endorsed McCain, but there's no way he would join the Republicans. Perhaps he'd make a fuss sometimes, but for his own political future he's probably going to listen to Obama.; November 4, 2008 12:35 PM
thegangler said...: Wingnut Logic:

PUTTING LIES IN ALL CAPS MAKES THEM TRUE!!!!!BLEEEEEAAARGH!; November 4, 2008 12:36 PM
dgspurgin said...: Thank you 538 for all the great reporting! America is about to create itself anew! I'm so friggin' inspired!; November 4, 2008 12:36 PM
Matt said...: We're making triple-berry pie tonight (or as my wife calls it, "Triple-Barry"). A scoop of vanilla ice cream on top and its red, white, and blue.

We'll be planted in front of the tube/laptop with some mini-beef tacos, nacho's, and maybe some buffalo wings to munch on. I've got a bottle of New Glarus imperial heff that I plan on cracking open once the election is called for Obama.

What are other people doing?; November 4, 2008 12:36 PM
Right Wing Conspiricist said...: McCain will lose the popular vote, but win this election with 273 Electoral Votes, libs.; November 4, 2008 12:36 PM
url said...: Very long day....Obama sign pounded deep into the ground, went to vote. Line was 30 minutes long or more. Went to volunteer. Got home from volunteering in the Democrat office in Independence, MO...Obama sign in yard, half way out of the ground...The bunch of cows won't give the hell up, will they?; November 4, 2008 12:36 PM
Chi said...: bush whacked,

You think Murdoch own only DirecTV and WSJ? Think again.; November 4, 2008 12:37 PM
beek said...: Rasmussen poll:

"On the night before America votes, 59% of likely U.S. voters expect Barack Obama to be elected president.

Eighteen percent (18%) expect Obama to beat John McCain by a landslide, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken Monday night. Forty-one percent (41%) say a modest Obama victory is most likely.

Over one-fifth of voters (22%) say the race is too close to call.

The fewest number of voters expect McCain to win. Seventeen percent (17%) say a modest McCain victory is most likely, while just two percent (2%) expect the Republican to win by a landslide."

2%? That's actually higher than McCain's overall chances according to Nate's model.; November 4, 2008 12:37 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Popping in the "Pie" Voice--syrup is too good.; November 4, 2008 12:38 PM
Andrew said...: WHERE IS REAL JOE ???

Waiting in line to vote?

Going to get a replacement keyboard?

Preparing Obama's acceptance speech?

Lying in a hospital bed suffering from repeated scrotal rupture?; November 4, 2008 12:38 PM
chris said...: @fersta

I can live without modern Hollywood output

Old Fox films don't count (pre-Murdoch); November 4, 2008 12:38 PM
Tyson said...: No matter what the outcome of the election there needs to be a criminal investigation into the voting machines AND a complete re-thinking on how we run elections.

I know it's a state responsibility but it's absolutely ridiculous that in this electronic age that there are any problems with voting.; November 4, 2008 12:39 PM
Mrs B said...: oh no - zogby is a pundit on BBC radio now!; November 4, 2008 12:40 PM
goatdan said...: @ andy js -- the reason for the lines at our polls varies for a lot of different reasons, depending on where it is you go and how they run things. While a lot of the precincts are relatively small (I think ours has about 3000 possible voters in it), the problem comes with how they verify if you can vote or not, and then how the voting process is actually done. For instance, paper ballots are a lot faster than machines because you can have everyone fill them out regardless of where they are.

I lived in a suburb of Milwaukee before, and even when I was too young to vote my grandfather always took me and I would stand in line with him. It *always* took about an hour to actually get to vote for the Presidential elections, and probably about 30-45 minutes for other ones. I remember how it took forever for us to get up to vote in 2000.

Since moving into the city and starting to vote here, the process is a LOT smoother even though the process is basically the same I think only because they have someone at the front that tells you which table to go to and get your ballot. At the other place, you had to stand and look it up before moving to the table, and this alone saves a TON of time.

It would be nice, since voting is a federal right for us, if they figured out a standard for how to do it and then upheld that standard state to state, but I don't see that happening any time soon.; November 4, 2008 12:40 PM
Johnkel24 said...: A federal law should be put into place requiring the following in all states:
1. Mandate advance voting in all 50 states, so voting lasts throughout the entire month of October and ends on Election Day in November instead of allowing the balloting to happen all on one day.
2. Mandate all voting machines have a paper ballot, and ban electronic only, paper-less voting machines nationwide. There has to be a paper trail to make recounts possible.
3. Mandate that each state standardize its voting machines, policies, training, and procedures so they are the same in every county within that state.
4. Mandate that polls be open until 10 pm to allow people enough time to vote after they get off work.

Do that, and I think a lot of our troubles will go away or be significantly lessened.; November 4, 2008 12:40 PM
vkngwmnNJ said...: Crab cakes,chicago-style pizza,little-necks,amstels, bubbly for the call!!!!; November 4, 2008 12:41 PM
mindgardener said...: Obama wins Guam straw poll by about 2-1!

For reference, in 2004 the results of the Guam straw poll were:

Guam

Bush
21,490

Kerry
11,781

That makes two previously Republican presidential results (the hamlets in NH and now Guam) now overwhelmingly Democratic.

Nate: any thoughts?; November 4, 2008 12:41 PM
Bush Whacked said...: chi:

I must have missed where I typed "only"; November 4, 2008 12:41 PM
PorridgeGun said...: Chi said...

porridgegun,

I am not too surprised about Sky News. Isn't there a connection between Sky and Rupert Murdoch (Fox News)?

Yes, but they're usually pretty good. In fact, their news coverage is far more intelligent than the likes of MSNBC, CNN, and of course FOX. And overall their election coverage is fine, it's mainly a few ignorant reporters and analysts who are talking nonsense. They do use the FOX feed for coverage, but with Sky News commentary.

BBC: short lines in Ohio area, apparently because of early voting.; November 4, 2008 12:41 PM
beek said...: re. Lieberman: "Perhaps he'd make a fuss sometimes, but for his own political future he's probably going to listen to Obama."

Lieberman is now so despised in the Democratic party, he simply has no future there. If the 60 margin is reached, they'll probably have to try courting him but if it's below that, they'll simply ignore him. And I'd bet he will join the Reps anyway (only to find sa comfort zone).; November 4, 2008 12:41 PM
broberts said...: marco said...
goatdan: Bin Laden is DEAD. This is why he didn't show up!

marco: I suspect you are corret.

goatdan: Obama did a good job closing the National Security gap and in some fairly recent polling was even with McCain.; November 4, 2008 12:42 PM
Blue_in_CO said...: 1.1%!!!; November 4, 2008 12:42 PM
Dead Cat Bounce said...: Poll update! McCain at 1.1% LOL; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Herunar said...: chris said...

@herunar

Yes you can. Plenty of TV channels plenty of newspapers. Even right-wing ones. You can do it.

Murdoch is everywhere. He even has a 45% share in Phoenix TV here in China - the pillar of our so-called "state-controlled media". And I'm not just referring to TV and newspapers. Hell, Murdoch has games (IGN), social networking (MySpace), film studios (Fox), even books (HarperCollins). You may be able to avoid Murdoch's newspapers, but there's no way you can boycott him without reverting to a primitive lifestyle.; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Andrew said...: 1.1% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MAC IS BACK!; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
beek said...: :-) McCain now at 1.1% in Nate's calcuklation.; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Tyson said...: CNN just had a stoned dude in PA saying he's going to vote a 'few times'

Hahahah; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Jackie said...: Just voted! :) Line was surprisingly short at 8am in Berkeley... I didn't have to wait at all, and there were maybe 10 people in line when I left.

But one good sign: the rain that has been pissing down since Wednesday has stopped completely, the clouds have cleared, and Election Day is bright and sunny. That has to be a metaphor for something, right?; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Johnkel24 said...: One more thing:
5. Mandate Election Day be on a weekend and make it a federal holiday so people don't have to miss work to vote.; November 4, 2008 12:43 PM
Jeff NYC Dem said...: Mule rider, your flare for the dramatic is inspiring, but misguided. darkest days in our country's history? Darker than slavery, darker than civil war, darker than trail of tears?

You really need some perspective. Most hard left liberals as well as many moderate conservitives think that Obama will rule pretty close to the political center because he believes in carrying out the will of the people, not imposing a radical agenda.

Rolling back ill-advised tax cuts on wealthy americans is not radical, it's responsible.

Giving people access who don't have access to affordable health care is not radical.

Promising to invest in the infrastructure of our country, even if it means temporarily spending money we don't have isn't radical, it's responsible keynsian economic stimulus.

Promising to restore our country to resectability around the world while not weakening our defenses isn't radical, its responsible.

Setting a goal to withdraw from a country that we invaded under false pretenses who doesn't want us there, and who has a huge budget surplus isn't radical, its responsible.

Promising to appoint judges that will follow the letter of the law without injecting their feelings of religious justice is not radical, it's responsible.

Electing Obama is not radical, it's responsible. We've done our civic duty. The people are electing him in response to one of the worst presidencies in a generation, that's not radical...

IT'S RESPONSIBLE; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Dead Cat Bounce said...: Bin Laden has to be dead. His lack of appearance this time around makes it pretty clear.; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Luke said...: 1.1%!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is great news . . . for John McCain.; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Pierre said...: re Lieberman: I don't care, kick him out of the caucus. Even if his vote is necessary for 60. His attacks against Obama this season have been disgraceful and he doesn't deserve a chairmanship or a seat at the caucus lunches.; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Shap said...: 98.9% baby!!!

saticali: people who ironically vote against California's prop 8?; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Chi said...: bush whacked,

my bad. I added the "only". Reading comprehension was not my forte. LOL.; November 4, 2008 12:44 PM
Voice of the Midwest said...: Report from Minnesota...

Field contact has indicated that the Obama/Franken GOTV effort is "amazingly efficient". The voters are being ticked off as they vote and the phone banks get the clean sheet instantaneously. Things are running ahead of pace with new voters, as well.

When asked where the phone banks are by Andrea (the field contact), the GOTV head said "We have hundreds of formal phone banks at unions, party HQs, etc.. But most of our 'phone banks' are people at PC's at home with cell phones and a scrolling phone list that comes from a polling field report that is up to the second".

Wow...; November 4, 2008 12:45 PM
Sarah Clark said...: @johnkel

I pretty much agree, though I think a month-long voting period is actually too long--a lot can happen in a month to change people's minds, and that's not a bad thing. Maybe 10 days-2 weeks? Aside from that, your argument is spot-on. moving everyone to a optical-scan paper ballot seems like a no brainer. Seems to work fine for the SATs...; November 4, 2008 12:45 PM
Tyson said...: '1.1% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!'

Mac has them 'just were we want them'

wv fispoxiv....14th Century alternate Pope; November 4, 2008 12:45 PM

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