Suppose that instead of a relatively decisive win by Barack Obama on Election Day, we instead have a very close election.
Wish state might the McCain campaign really, really wish that they hadn't insulted?
I'll give you a hint. It's not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth.
Five separate polls of Virginia have been released within the past 48 hours. Zogby has Obama ahead by 7 points there, the Washington Post by 8, SurveyUSA by 9, Public Policy Polling also by 9, and Virgnia Commonwealth University by 11.
Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is a bit more electorally potent than Colorado; Obama could afford to lose either New Hampshire or New Mexico if he won there (though not both), which is not true about the Rocky Mountain state. We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits. If Obama wins all of those states plus Virginia, he's at 268 electoral votes, meaning that any more electoral votes anywhere in the country would win him the election.
10.27.2008
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall
@ 12:44 PM
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522 comments
IBD poll will prove to be a joke on election night
badger, only Bosniaks turn up for Biden's rallies.
..and people from Scranton.
sherwick said...
OMG OMG! The sky is falling! Obama ONLY UP BY 5 in Florida!!!
Oh wait, he doesn't need Florida...
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA
McCain Surge Everywhere !!!!
real joe,
Isn't IBD pretty much a joke already?
Obama has won! Obama has won!
“Tito the Builder” appears with Palin at VA Rally
PRESIDENT Elect Obama to you, assmole
Hee heee!
:)
From Wikipedia:
Bosniaks are typically characterized by their tie to the Bosnian historical region, traditional adherence to Islam, and common culture and language.
In the English-speaking world, Bosniaks are most commonly known as Bosnian Muslims, although Bosniaks make up 48% of the population while only 40% of the population (of B&H) is Muslim.[26] The term "Bosnians", also used interchangeably, can also be used to denote all inhabitants of Bosnia regardless of ethnic origin (i.e. not only Bosniaks, but also Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats or any other group in the country).[
Biden was correct. Bosniaks, not Bosnian, is the adjective attached to people from the region.
"Real Joe" appears at Biden VT rally .
Aunt Karen said...
"War Hussein Obama said...
i was just about to change my name to Concern Troll"
You can still change it to Concern Hussein Troll! Keep your brand, lol.
^^^
LOL
Police said the argument continued, and when the woman's sister stood up in defense the man pushed her into a wall. He then allegedly stormed from the home and punched out a window.
“Tito the Builder” appears with Palin at VA Rally
Tito Jackson? Or Bob the Builders cousin?
Palin has nothing to say in response to N*GGER being yelled out at her rally.
She obviously heard it, yet she said nothing. How can anyone defend McCain/Palin at this point? They are scum.
Clearly this is a good sign of things to come. My son pointed out after looking at our yard sign and comparing to others around the neighborhood.
"There's lots of Obama signs, because it's Obama time!"
Now where did he come up with that?
Tito the Builder?
Is this a joke?
Wow you guys don't like any type of dissent! Otherwise, PA John will label you as a troll! As if that really matters.
But seriously guys/ladies why do you guys frown so heavily upon differing opinions? Michael posts polls showing the race tightening and immediately he is flamed! If the polls show in favorable numbers for Obama its a-okay.
A new Suffolk poll of Florida, which shows Barack Obama ahead 49%-44%, has another statistic that could affect the outcome on Election Day: Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.
Early voting has become a big thing in Florida, and current statistics show that enough early votes have already been cast to equal more than a quarter of the total votes that were cast in 2004. So Obama has already banked a good lead in a major swing state, if this poll is accurate.
Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit.
you have some good points to ponder ...
Congrats on being listed on blogsofnote! That's where I found your blog. Perhaps eventually my blog will join yours! :)
lorrie, one of the Bosniaks at Biden's rally yelled out 'e*kimo-f*cker' and he said nothing either. scumbag.
I think the polls underestimated the independents.
For example, Obama is leaning independents in Zogby by 20 and he leads only by 5.
Anyway, the state polls are the most important, not the national polls.
McCain is at this time 6 points under Kerry and Obama´s numbers are similar to Bush in 2004.
Real Joe said...
“Tito the Builder” appears with Palin at VA Rally
My favorite part about that was how SP said that not since the Jackson five have so many people chanted Tito.
Politico:
GOP 'mavericks' have concerns with McCain
bradley effect,
couple of points that could forewall you against being called a troll- 1 don't give yourself a name of an effect that this site itself has pretty much proved never really existed.
2 Don't go picking fights. So someone called you a troll, so what? If you have a sensible argument to make, make it. Stop griping about people being mean to you.
The problem is Michael is cherry picking. Obama supporters can cherry pick too. How about Obama's widening lead in the Gallup poll? The most realistic thing to think is that the race is steady until we see uniform movement in all the polls taken as a whole.
It does *seem* like McCain has some movement but - it should be noted the same thing appeared to be the case this time last week (Monday) and then it was all Obama all week.
@Bradley Effect said...
Wow you guys don't like any type of dissent! Otherwise, PA John will label you as a troll! As if that really matters.
The "conversation" you started here went something like this:
You: Rev. Wright
Everyone: we don't care
You: Rev. Wright
Everyone: we don't care!
You: Rev. Wright
Everyone: WE DON'T CARE
You: Rev. Wright
Everyone: troll...
lorrie? any other sources?
this could be the final nail in the coffin for mccain-palin if this is true and hits msm today or tomorrow.
Intrade has McGrandpa at 12.4 LMAO!!!!
The great thing about early voting is that now the Obama campaign can concentrate on those voters who haven't yet voted on election day. It allows them to laser target their efforts. It also increases the chance for higher overall turnout as there should be less voting problems on election day if many voters have already voted.
I'm a big supporter of early voting. Anything that gets overall participation up is a good thing. Contrast that to Republicans who want as few people as possible to take part. They are truly anti-democracy.
On the subject of Biden, I don't care about his dumb gaffes. He is one of the closest things we have to a genuine, human politician.
He is a perfect running mate for Obama, and the campaign is run so well that even if he sticks his foot in his mouth, it never makes a difference.
What's great about Biden is that he speaks of an America and values that exist not through religion, but alongside it. I'm a very committed atheist and I love politicians who are more concerned about what you do and who you are, than in what god you believe.
The hard right has somehow tied family values to being nucleur family Christians, and I think that's wrong. My partner and I will adopt children soon and give them every bit as much love, support and values that any straight couple can, and though I'm sure Biden's catholicism keeps him from being morally aligned with me on that issue, I know that he and Obama care more that children have loving parents, no matter what sex or religion they are. So what if he says something idiotic now and then, so do I, so do all of us. OBAMA BIDEN !08!!
on election night we will see a surprise
get ready !
According to the Suffolk Poll
Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.
Yes this is terrible news for Obama he is certainly going to lose now.
/snark/
The concern trolling is getting out of hand. Nate's projections estimates McCain will get 46% of the vote. Every poll released has him at or below that number. I don't understand what people are worried about. And even as the RCP spread decreases from 8.0 to 7.3 (OH NO!), Obama is at 50.5% in the RCP average, his highest number ever.
i agree Jeff.
Biden was perfect in retrospect, there was no better running mate to be had.
Bradley Effect: "Wow you guys don't like any type of dissent! Otherwise, PA John will label you as a troll! As if that really matters."
PA-John (in Joe Biden voice): Let me repeat myself..Troll.
Rasmussen: California Presidential Election
Obama Up By 27 in California
Obama - 61
McCain - 34
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election
Has anyone else felt the same as me that Rasmussen shows unusually large margins for Obama in solid Blue states where as he shows his margins in the battlegrounds to be narrower than others..may be it is due to his single-day polling that he turns out such results!
jnorthrop--My references to Wright is only to point out Obama's lack of judgment! I couldn't care less what he's preaching IF he was preaching to concievably the next POTUS! That is the problem! It is not about Wright, it is about Obama's relationship to Wright and many other people most people would consider unsavory!
From CNN:
A supporter of Sarah Palin shouts the n-word in a reference to Barack Obama while Palin herself attempts to connect her opponent to “other countries where people are not free.”
This time it’s clear that Palin actually heard what the person said, because the racial slur broke her stride and caused her to stammer for a brief second before continuing in her sentence.
However, she did nothing to condemn her supporters’ racism, and even seemed to egg it on by suggesting that Obama is not a real American but belongs in some other country, such as perhaps Iran.
To put it a different way, did anyone ever expect McCain to lose this election 57-42 in the popular vote? McCain will get 46% - 47% of the vote. That's a comfortable win for Obama.
As someone who lives in Real Virginia there is plenty of support for Obama outside the Beltway to the tiniest corners of Podunk and Bumfuck. The ground game down here is also awesome.
@jeff nyc dem
Don't be too sure that Joe Biden won't be supportive of what you are doing. He congratulated Ellen last week, and told her he obviously would never for for Prop 8.
RE:
Obama Up By 27 in California
Obama - 61
McCain - 34
MCCAIN SURGE!
Sheesh Someone had to do that. :)
Real Joe said...
on election night we will see a surprise
get ready !
What surprise? Texas will be blue? Thanks for the heads up!
sorry real joe I had not seen you had already posted the early voting numbers.
is the 'surprise' you talk about the same surprise you promised us last week? or is this something else
btw Stephens verdict coming.
any link for that suffolk poll?
Don't dis Podunk and Bumfuck! Podunk has decent wine, and Bumfuck makes good ham!
Seriously, if this doesn't get flamed, nothing I say should!
"Has anyone else felt the same as me that Rasmussen shows unusually large margins for Obama in solid Blue states where as he shows his margins in the battlegrounds to be narrower than others..may be it is due to his single-day polling that he turns out such results!"
Bradley,
"But seriously guys/ladies why do you guys frown so heavily upon differing opinions? Michael posts polls showing the race tightening and immediately he is flamed! If the polls show in favorable numbers for Obama its a-okay."
There are plenty of differing opinions here. They are all welcome. However: this is a data-based site. If you want arguments you make to be taken seriously, they need to be based on data.
Michael, as he usually does, is dishonestly cherry-picking polls to try to push a false narrative. Therefore, he gets flamed. People who go crazy over a clear outlier in Obama's favor meet a similar fate. You aren't even using data at all, you're just talking about race and being anti-American.
Make an argument and back it up. Show how, using specific data points, belonging to Wright's church hurts his electoral chances, if you believe that. Then we can have an honest discussion about the arguments and data you're using. This is not a place where simply repeating "Obama hates America" is a valid argument.
AZ will be BLUE with no effort from Obama whatsoever!!!
SEATTLE, WA (AP)
A King County judge has thrown out a lawsuit challenging Barack Obama's qualifications to be president.
The secretary of state's office says Superior Court Judge John Erlick dismissed the lawsuit on Monday.
It claimed Obama's U.S. citizenship was in question, saying that could make him ineligible for the presidency. The plaintiff, Steven Marquis of Fall City, claimed Obama may have been a citizen of his father's native Kenya, or became a citizen of Indonesia when he lived there as a boy.
Obama was born in Hawaii to an American mother and a Kenyan father. After his parents divorced, Obama's mother married an Indonesian man.
A similar lawsuit was thrown out of U.S. District Court in Philadelphia on Friday.
Bradley Effect -- Obama sitting in pews is not a matter of JUDGEMENT. Seriously! McCain voting for the war IS Judgement. McCain allwoing himself to be involved with the Keating 5 is judgement. McCain picking a right wing hack that listenst to surmons from witch hunters and jews for jesus, who abuses her powers and associates with hard core successionists, is judgement.
Check this out:
Scene: McCain rally this morning in Kettering, Ohio
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/empty_space_at_a_mccain_rally.php
concern troll
link?
Seriously, if this doesn't get flamed, nothing I say should!
"Has anyone else felt the same as me that Rasmussen shows unusually large margins for Obama in solid Blue states where as he shows his margins in the battlegrounds to be narrower than others..may be it is due to his single-day polling that he turns out such results!"
jeff nyc dem: great post. All I can add to it is that when Barack and Michelle Obama adopted that Bangladeshi orphan I applauded it from my heart.
Sen Ensign (R-NV): McCain makes Senate races more difficult
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/ensign-mccain-makes-senate-races-more-difficult-2008-10-27.html
mccain is underperforming bush by 19 points in california compared to bush/kerry.
Can I add my voice to those praising Joe Biden right now. Absolutely perfect pick for Obama. He adds a kind of passion that Obama never really could, to the campaign. And would obviously be a great man to take over if anything bad did happen to Obama.
"Seriously, if this doesn't get flamed, nothing I say should!"
Why? It's a potentially valid argument. If it's true that Rasmussen does in fact have larger than average Obama margins in blue states, narrower margins in close states, and uses one-day polling, it's reasonable to ask whether those are related factors. As far as I know those are all largely true statements, though perhaps not 100%. Rasmussen's choice of one-day polling vs multi-day is an unusual choice and it's worth discussing whether that influences his results.
lol real joe - are the delusional freepers still wasting their time on that instead of getting out the vote???
hee heeeee
I live in podunk Virginia (southwestern "REAL" Virginia) and let me tell you - Obama is huge here. People are more enthusiastic about Obama than they were about John Kerry or Al Gore, that is for sure. I think Obama has a real shot to win southwestern VA and obviously if he does that he'll win the entire state by double digits.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the early voting evidence so far makes it even more unlikely that McLame could pull this off. If about 1/3 of the electorate in a state votes early and Obama holds a 60-40 lead, then that means that McLame needs to win 55-45 with the other 2/3 on election day. So does anyone really believe that he can win 55-45 in every single swing state he would need to even have a chance to tie Obama? I don't really think so.
Antmatic I so appreciate you making the point about people freaking out and the expectation that McCain would get 40% of the vote. I hope this sinks in if not this week wil be very long for a lot of people
A conservative's take on The Top Ten Reasons Conservatives Should Vote For Obama
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-top-ten-rea.html#more
Ant...I have $$ on 43%. I am sticking with it.
Seriously, if this doesn't get flamed, nothing I say should!
"Has anyone else felt the same as me that Rasmussen shows unusually large margins for Obama in solid Blue states where as he shows his margins in the battlegrounds to be narrower than others..may be it is due to his single-day polling that he turns out such results!"
The post quoted above is a question on polling methods, and as such, bears no resemblance to your unique, agressive brand of stupidity. Generally, one-day polls have shown BHO with a larger lead than trackers. I'm not aware of a hypothesis about the cause of this difference.
Assmole, I think that was McCain family that adopted? Right?
Quicky on Rev Wright, you can sit in the pews of a church for as long as you like and it isn't going to end up with anythng much bad happening. You can pick a Vice President and it can have pretty awful consequences.
See Palin really is a firewall against just about every criticism you can make against Obama.
adam--So what does this have to do with polls, statistics, etc?
Sreenu said...
Check this out:
Scene: McCain rally this morning in Kettering, Ohio
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/empty_space_at_a_mccain_rally.php
or this
Concern Troll said...
From CNN:
A supporter of Sarah Palin shouts the n-word in a reference to Barack Obama while Palin herself attempts to connect her opponent to “other countries where people are not free.”
This time it’s clear that Palin actually heard what the person said, because the racial slur broke her stride and caused her to stammer for a brief second before continuing in her sentence.
However, she did nothing to condemn her supporters’ racism, and even seemed to egg it on by suggesting that Obama is not a real American but belongs in some other country, such as perhaps Iran.
October 27, 2008 2:49 PM
^
I'm just saying:)
the game - no he can't lol
This whole idea that Obama showed poor judgment by being a member of Rev. Wright's church is pure racism. I'm sorry. It's as simple as that. If you talk about Rev. Wright you are a racist. Why? Because Rev. Wright's church was a black Christian church. There was nothing particularly unusual about it. If you think Obama should have "walked out" on that church then you are saying Obama should walk out on black culture entirely. This is a rephrasing of what Obama said during his great "RACE" speech (he said it much better and much more nuanced than I, of course.) But yes, again, let me say: The Rev. Wright issue is an issue for racists only.
St. Nick said...
Why don't you have him winning New Hampshire when he is ahead there by anywhere from 8 to 15 points in the polls.
I think Nate meant that Obama is not ahead by double digits.
sherwick said...
lol real joe - are the delusional freepers still wasting their time on that instead of getting out the vote???
hee heeeee
crazy people
@Real Joe
on election night we will see a surprise
get ready !
Did you hear this from your sources inside the McCain campaign???
If so, this is deeply worrying!!!
/concern troll
Stevens: at least two guilty verdicts in
Another Palin firewall, this one is particularly interesting. Don't like redistribution of wealth? Then why send a check to every person in your state?
Bradley Effect --
I take your lack of response to my inqiries as validtaion that you can't speak to anything bout your talking points -- are you really Sarah Palin? and if you are, shouldn't you be campaigning?
adam--What about this? How does this tie into the "stringent" blog talking points?
Jeff NYC Dem said...
Assmole, I think that was McCain family that adopted? Right?
Stevens is guilty on all counts
ok...
Ted Stevens guilty on ALL counts.
Bradley,
It's clear you're new here. There is no requirement that every post be about polls, polling methods, or statistics, though that is the primary focus of the site. People are free to say whatever they like, on-topic or off-topic.
However, if you're going to make potentially inflammatory posts in support or against a candidate, you had best be prepared to make a data-based argument for the point you're trying to make. Particularly since many of us here are Obama supporters, we don't take all that favorably to already-debunked talking points from Limbaugh and Hannity. Republicans of all stripes are welcome, but they are advised to be respectful and conduct their arguments in a mature, rational manner. You have fallen well short of that standard in much of this thread.
CNN Breaking News: Sen. Stevens found guilty of all counts in corruption trial.
Another one bites the dust.
Wait... BE is going to try and get us to condemn someone for posting something about how someone at a campaign rally, and the candidate, did something that he himself has done in most of this thread?
What a queer little man.
Joey said...
Stevens: at least two guilty verdicts in
link?
Blogger War Hussein Obama said...
concern troll
link?
___________________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T0FI2axbU
Senator Stevens Guilty
CNN
Stevens' verdicts will also affect the House race in AK.
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live_asx.html?stream=stream1
Stevens streaming from CNN
Lorrie- So when we, meaning anyone other than blacks, question Obama's relationship with his racist preacher, with whom he had a very close relationship with for the past 20 years, it's racist! Okay, gotcha!
jeff--Sorry I have been getting lambasted from so many people I lost track of your "post." Please explain what you would like me to respond to!
stevens found guilty. ha!
it was just announced on cnn
every politician from Alaska is corrupt!!!
Can anyone in the USA name another Alaska politician?
Er let me see...
:/
New thread!!!
Mason said...
Wait... BE is going to try and get us to condemn someone for posting something about how someone at a campaign rally, and the candidate, did something that he himself has done in most of this thread?
What a queer little man.
^
Check your friend Adam! He is the one describing what is and isn't appropriate! I just made reference to other blog posts that had NOTHING to do with polls or stats! Don't shoot the messenger.
is there a CNN article link? The racial slur at the Palin rally? Video's are blocked at work
Bradley,
"So when we, meaning anyone other than blacks, question Obama's relationship with his racist preacher, with whom he had a very close relationship with for the past 20 years, it's racist! Okay, gotcha!"
It's not racist. It is irrelevant. The story took up a full month on every news and pundit show. Virtually everyone at this point, white or black, has heard more than enough about his relationship with Wright to have an informed opinion about it.
The problem we have with you is that you appear to think this is somehow a new story that should affect anyone. It isn't, and it doesn't. Over 50% of Americans know full well about Obama's relationship with Wright and still find him to be the best choice for President.
So what it is, exactly, that you're trying to say? There isn't a single person on this board you're going to convince. And you haven't offered any evidence that it *will* convince any voters. So it appears all you're doing is repeating the same talking point over and over.
Sen Ensign (R-NV): McCain makes Senate races more difficult
Even if true (and as an Obama supporter I think it is), a Republican Senator and McCain supporter should never SAY it. He's also scapegoating McCain to cover for his own failures as head of the NRSC. What a douchebag. No wonder you guys are losing so badly with asshats like Ensign running your campaign committees.
Check your friend Adam! He is the one describing what is and isn't appropriate! I just made reference to other blog posts that had NOTHING to do with polls or stats! Don't shoot the messenger.
You don't get it. You already shot yourself. Now begone, or I shall taunt you a second time.
adam--Thanks adam for clearing that up for me. See you at the new thread, buddy.
Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14819.html
CNN Breaking News: Sen. Stevens found guilty of all counts in corruption trial.
Another one bites the dust.
SWEET!
lol real joe - are the delusional freepers still wasting their time on that instead of getting out the vote???
hee heeeee
It's tin foil hat land over there and at redstate. You should read one of those threads. Someone will point out that there was a contemporaneous newspaper announcement of Obama's Hawaii birth and they still cling to their delusions.
With Palin and the racial slur, I couldn't decide if she was simply too dull to depart from her written speech or if she's just evil for not even considering calling out the racist for the remark. Given her history, probably the latter.
In addition to the slur and the Pittsburgh hoax attack and the thinking-Republican (semi-oxymoron) endorsements of Obama, etc., the Stevens news is just another in a series of unbelievable almost-daily debacles in the McCain campaign, most of them self-inflicted.
"It's tin foil hat land over there and at redstate"
Unlike over here, where we hear 100 times a day that Republicans are conspiring to steal the election.
Real Joe? What type of surprise? You can't leave everyone hanging like that...gotta deliver....peoples got things to do...
On another note, my word verification is Smess
I played a game called Smess ("The Ninny's Chess") all the time at my cabin in Oregon when I was little.
Bradley,
what would you say to someone who says that the fires of hell are but icebergs compared to my hatred of America?
I don't just have a tin-foil hat! I have a hot tin-foil roof!
On Ted Stevens:
He has been tied with the Dem candidate; obviously that changes the dynamic.
The GOP's best option might be to have Stevens say that if this is appealed and not overturned, he'll resign. Alaska law requires that an election, not an appointment, would pick the new Senator.
That's hardly a strong position for the party.
Stevens might indeed win an appeal (it was a weird trial) on procedural issues. His defense likely will ask the judge to overturn it. But even so, it is hard to think he'd be reelected. Alaska also has Palin as a joke to deal with; they don't need another.
On the other hand, expect Bush to include Stevens among the hundreds if not thousands he pardons.
Unlike over here, where we hear 100 times a day that Republicans are conspiring to steal the election.
The Left definitely has their share of crazies as well, but are you suggesting that comments about Republicans attempts to suppress Democratic leaning voters are without any validity? Or, did you have something else in mind? I've seen lots of comments about the former, not much about the latter.
If the polls continue to hold, this could be an election night without suspense, which would be very good for a change.
Since the polls close earlier on the east coast, this election could theoretically be wrapped up by the time the polls close in the the central time zone. If Obama gets victories in ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL, and MO, he also gets to that magical 268 in electoral votes. In theory, if he were to win those states, then as pointed out by Nate Silver, he needs only one more state. Notice on the list above, CA, a traditionally democratic state, isn't even included. We may not need to wait until the early hours of the morning to know who won this election.
The GOP's best option might be to have Stevens say that if this is appealed and not overturned, he'll resign. Alaska law requires that an election, not an appointment, would pick the new Senator.
I don't think he'll have much choice if it's not overturned on appeal--he'll be in prison rather than the Senate chambers. He'll miss more votes than McCain.
Does Alaska have early voting? If so, those Stevens votes would count.
Also, Mark Begich has been polling around 45-46%.
Stevens could try this Hail Mary - vote for me, I will resign is appeal doesn't work (he'd be expelled anyway), then under Alaska law there would be a new election in a few months. Don't take it out on the party.
That won't work, but he might try it. Palin will be pressed on her thoughts on this.
Stevens might win a procedural appeal, then be tried. And he likely gets one of Bush's multi-thousand pardons.
Nate, could you post % for "McCain wins VA, loses election" or "Obama wins VA, loses election"... It seems at least as important as the numbers for OH...?
I thought you guys were projecting New Hampshire for Obama! You said you were projecting that Obama would win all of the Kerry states, except for New Hampshire. Is this a hypothetical situation or is this what you are actually projecting?
Chuck Todd made an interesting point the other day. If Obama managed to hold onto his leads in VA,CO and wins Nevada he could lose PA, OH AND FL and still win the election. Talk about your paths to victory.
Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 4 in Virginia.
Given Obama's massive margins in CA, NY, IL, and MA, aren't the margins in those states accounting for a large part of Obama's national margin of aboout 5-6 points in national tracking polls? Especially given how relatively small McCain's margins are in the largest hardcore red states like Texas that would normally do some offsetting?
Nate Silver writes: "I'll give you a hint. It's not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth."
_________________________________
A "commonwealth," you say?
That sounds very socialist to me!
...especially these days.
I appreciate Voice of the Midwest's analysis of the GOP and their motivation of cashing in on the ignorance of the electorate. How sad it is that there are still those who feel that the Old Fart and the Tart would be good for the country. I was at Obama's rally in Canton, Ohio yesterday, and he is just fantastic. Presidential, serious, so intelligent...and that sincere smile...he may not be all things to all people, but he is what our limping, injured country needs right now. I will be out canvassing and working my ass off to get Obama elected on November 4.
GET OUT THE VOTE!!!
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