Suppose that instead of a relatively decisive win by Barack Obama on Election Day, we instead have a very close election.
Wish state might the McCain campaign really, really wish that they hadn't insulted?
I'll give you a hint. It's not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth.
Five separate polls of Virginia have been released within the past 48 hours. Zogby has Obama ahead by 7 points there, the Washington Post by 8, SurveyUSA by 9, Public Policy Polling also by 9, and Virgnia Commonwealth University by 11.
Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is a bit more electorally potent than Colorado; Obama could afford to lose either New Hampshire or New Mexico if he won there (though not both), which is not true about the Rocky Mountain state. We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits. If Obama wins all of those states plus Virginia, he's at 268 electoral votes, meaning that any more electoral votes anywhere in the country would win him the election.
10.27.2008
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall
@ 12:44 PM
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"insulted" is pointing to http://www.blogger.com/www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjY8A5IFYbg instead of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjY8A5IFYbg
North Carolina FTW!!
Ain't it the truth. If Virginia is in Obama's corner, as the polls are increasingly suggesting, Pennsylvania becomes decreasingly a winning strategy for McCain.
nice piece from gallup:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111451/Late-Upsets-Rare-Happened.aspx
Which State instead of wish State.
Later!
No matter what the polls in Virginia show in a week's time, a HUGE Rally with Warner, Webb, Kaine, and perhaps Powell will seal the deal.
How would have thought it 4 years ago, that Virginia of all places might be the firewall that the Democratis need (hopefully Obama won't need it mind.)
I notice McCain's still banging on about "Growing the Pie". I'm not convinced this metaphor makes any sense. The original leavening of the dough is surely long since over, as it can only refer to the period of intense industrial development from the end of the civil war to automation. After leavening, pies do not 'grow'. They are either eaten, or essentially just sit there.
What's clear is that all this talk about the American Pie is fantastic news...FOR DON MACLEAN!!!
"meaning that any more electoral votes anywhere in the country would win him the election."
Not quite. Kerry - NH + Iowa + VA + a nebraska district = 269! And the tie isn't a guaranteed win for any candidate, by a long shot.
Just playing devil's advocate ;-)
Ras: Arizona
McCain 51
Obama 46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election
Pay attention in Arizona.
McCain´s lead cut to 5.
The libertarian west is a problem for McCain, bah, it´s a problem because of Sarah Palin.
With Romney McCain will win CO and NV.
I want to see Obama win both of McCain's "home states."
Take a look at the Arizona averages these days....
for another format from Nate's (graphical):
http://www.pollster.com/polls/az/08-az-pres-ge-mvo.php
If any of these possible effects (CP voters, youth turnout, continued hispanic swing, depressed GOP'ers) happens or combines, we could see McCain lose Arizona!
Not that it would matter in the type of landslide that would be, but it would add to the rebuke of hate-based campaigning.
I'm not so sure Pfoefen actually insulted anyone in VA with that comment - any independent minded Virginians care to comment?
It was the firewall to make it to 51 seats last time around in 2006, too.
The "Welcome to the 'real world' of Virginia" comments (which Allen later clarified as meaning outside the beltway, as you'd think today) seem even more relevant than his slur right now.
I am a bit confused about what McCain is saying on the economy right now. Lots of surrogates over the last few days seem to be saying that redistribution is wrong. But how is the wealth supposed to 'trickle down' without redistribution?
I'm on board with the theory that if VA and NC go for Obama, we're looking at 345 EV's easily. Shouldn't get my hopes up though
AZ is a lean Repub On RCP avg of M+6. That had to hurt for the RCP boys!
Do you guys think that this 2001 interview could change the game?
It will be a one-party state, named Palinia, with the Palin Dynasty ruling us all. Not that an ignorant Commiecrat like you would know ANYTHING about democracy.
PALIN REVOLUTION/MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!! 8 MORE DAYS!!!
What 2001 interview?
Joe McCain - he of the 'Communist North Virginia' comment - called 9/11 because he was stuck in traffic. Twice. He's such a smart guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y6_s3O5Bj0
@Dario, McCain made a huge mistake by not picking Romney. Besides avoiding the Palin negatives and helping himself with economy voters, Romney likely would have helped him carry NV and CO. He blew it.
Any electoral votes in the whole country, except for Omaha and the NE-2nd.
The poll numbers out of Arizona probably have Sarah Palin laughing up her Valentino sleeve, provided she is even remotely aware of what is happening in the real world.
gallup
rv 52-42 O+1
lv e 53-43 O+1
LV t - 50-45 nc
mccain surge is confirmed.
the gallup is late updating today. grr...
So why didn't you Dems nominate Hillary? She'd have Ohio and Florida locked up by now, and Bill's vote stealing could even compete with Bush's and McCain't.
But instead, you nominate helpless powerless muslim terrorist communist Hussein. THAT LOST YOU THE ELECTION, LIBS!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I BET YOU MISS HILLARY NOW!
You have to love the daily trackers. If one gets you down you can always rely on the other to pick you up.
Gallup 10/27
RV O52-42
LV+53-43
LV trad 50-45
Only movement is in Obama's direction.
Dam poll watching can be a frustrating and nervy business
McCain will win AZ unless an absolute landslide. But, has a sitting elected official of the state ever lost their own state in a presidential election? Gore lost TN but he wasn't a sitting elected offcial at the state level at that time.
please people go read Andrew Sullivan on the latest insanity being pimped by drudge and Mccain (re Vanessa's game change from 2001). Pure bs they had to splice the tape to make this point. The whole interview is available on NPR and it is about the civil rights movement. More futile attempts to make Obama into a communist.
Scott:
Pfotenhauer insulted me and I am a Virginian living in the southern part. Some people don't get that Virginians are awfully prideful of our commonwealth and that means all of it. We might tease the northern region and vice versa but when someone goes on national television and says we are a house divided that's like cutting open in a very old wound.
I don't quite believe these polls. I certainly think Obama can win Virginia but not by the sorts of margins the latest polls seem to be suggesting.
**** CONCERN TROLL ALERT!!! ****
GALLUP RV - 52%-42% OBAMA
GALLUP LV1 - 53% -43% OBAMA
OH NOES!!! TIGHTENING!!
vanessa said...
Do you guys think that this 2001 interview could change the game?
its over for Obama
hahahahahahahah
"But how is the wealth supposed to 'trickle down' without redistribution?"
How about in the form of payment for work? It's called capitalism.
I am very concerned about the latest Gallup numbers. Surely Obama should be at LEAST 25% to 35% ahead by now. He has clearly not sealed the deal and as we all know, A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS!
P.S. Apologies for being a concern troll, but these latest Gallup numbers are very worrying.
@markymark
"Dam poll watching can be a frustrating and nervy business"
You said it! Especially when I'm trying to get some work done but keep coming back to this window and hitting F5 right around now for the updates :)
Usually, polls like the ones we're seeing coming out of Arizona would be big news. But the uncertainty of a few national polls is dominating the narrative. The thing is, the people who genuinely believe McCain has a shot at winning the election is the same number who believe Obama has a shot at taking Arizona.
State Polls: Reality
National Polls: Narrative
weren't the usual suspects telling us the spread the wealth thing would sink Obama? seems that really did the trick ah? So now they are trying again. This will change nothing.
McCain saying he shares Bushes philosophy. That on the other hand is pretty damming.
brirodg
But that doesn't work. We all know that unfettered unregulated capitalism will pay its workers the least it can get away with. Thats not redistribution, thats saving yourself as much money as possible.
And what about people who work in the public sector?
@Zechaplanga,
High comedy, indeed.
So why didn't you Dems nominate Hillary? She'd have Ohio and Florida locked up by now, and Bill's vote stealing could even compete with Bush's and McCain't.
But instead, you nominate helpless powerless muslim terrorist communist Hussein. THAT LOST YOU THE ELECTION, LIBS!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I BET YOU MISS HILLARY NOW!
pa john said...
**** CONCERN TROLL ALERT!!! ****
GALLUP RV - 52%-42% OBAMA
GALLUP LV1 - 53% -43% OBAMA
MCCAIN SURGE !!!
When Palin dies as dictator of Palinia, will Trig take over?
Following Nate's line,
Virginia is in Obama's column for sure, but s is Nevada.
85% of Nevada's population is in Las Vegas and Reno. Bush beat Kerry by 20,000 votes there. THE GOTV effort by Obama has paid off in two ways so far. One, is the Dems now have a registration advantage of almost 100,000 there. Also, early voting compared to last time is heavy Democrat. In other states, a McCain surge at the end could produce surprising results. It's virtually impossible in Nevada. If Obama gets his voters out in Nevada, there's nothing McCain can do to counter it. This is why, the 268, need 1 more vote number is actually short 5. Obama is guaranteed 273 at this point, IMO. I'm ceding Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Indiana, Montana, Georgia, and north Dakota to McCain which is absurd, but even with that Obama's at 273.
Public Service Announcement
The true Mule Rider has a Blogger ID starting 1801777...
He exposed the sockpuppet last post.
The sock puppet is now referred to as "tampon rider" since he's obviously something that John McCain calls his wife, and I don't mean trollop.
There is also a PeteKent parody sock puppet that's as absurd an funnier than the original.
Oh, and I'm a GOP spy in a coalition of thousands of Pennsylvania PUMAS. They're ALL lying to the pollsters, saying they will vote for Obama, but are sealed for McCain! HAHAHAHA!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!! I BET YOU DEMS MISS HILLARY NOW!
I think someone posted this earlier. Rothenberg of the Rothenberg report tells us where the election really stands. This guy knows how electoral politics works and he says the fat lady is already singing.
"We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits."
This implies, he will win NH just not by double digits; thus Obama will have 272 electoral college votes, not 268.
If he does not win NH, but wins IOWA and VA, then he will have 268 electoral college votes.
Diageo Hotline O+8
Gallup LV2 O+10
Gallp RV O+10
Rasmussen O+5
Research 2000 O+8
Not bad. Not bad at all.
thank you gallup! i worry...i have called a concern troll (although i deny it)
but whenever i hear mccain dribble about spreading the wealth i feel better.
Obama losing NH? When? How? You have it dark blue!
oops here is the link
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/
vanessa said...
Do you guys think that this 2001 interview could change the game?
The clarification of this misrepresented interview, by itself, will continue to make it seem like the McCain campaign is continually crying wolf. To read the entire quote or the interview is to realize that (then State) Senator Obama is talking about changing occurring from the bottom up by organized coalition, rather than be court action. By the time (credible) news organizations refute the BFD that has been made of this, reporters, and viewers and voters, perhaps, will be tired of the McCain camps continual unveiling of guns that aren't even hot, furthermore smoking.
@vanessa
No, I don't think a seven year old spliced up statement will change anything. The spread the wealth thing isn't helping McCain - most people realize that all taxation is a form of wealth redistribution.
Besides, it's going to be rough to have a game changer at this point, no matter what. There's enough early voting this year that Obama has already banked a lot of votes, likely more than McCain has, from all anecdotal evidence.
petekent,
Becuase more Democrats preferred to have a powerless, muslim terrorist communist named Hussein as its nominee.
And judging by all the polls at the moment, America would prefer to have the same as its president.
you can't be serious SHERWICK. 25-35 point lead? That's like impossible ever.
Vanessa said...
Do you guys think that this 2001 interview could change the game?
Vanessa! My favorite concer troll is back!!
No. Take some Ny-Quill and go to bed.
lisa hunter said...
Obama losing NH? When? How? You have it dark blue!
lisa
its a typo
vanessa is a level 4 concern troll.
--I think someone posted this earlier. Rothenberg of the Rothenberg report tells us where the election really stands. This guy knows how electoral politics works and he says the fat lady is already singing.--
Rothenberg if I recall correctly normally tilts GOP in his bias
Yeah, I heard Rush trying to turn Obama into a marxist with his interpretation of the constitution. Obama said that the constitution lists what the states can't do to you and what the federal government can't do to you, a list of negative liberties and that the government is not obligated under the constitution to do anything for you.
I mean that sounds like a very conservative, nay, libertarian view of the constitution. Rush is literally not making any sense at this point. It's the equivalent of Obama saying, "White." and Rush going, did you hear him, did you hear him say "Black!" ZOMG!
No, Trig will not take over. It will go to Todd if he is alive, than Track, then his heirs, (if he doesn't have any it will go to Bristol), and so on.
Thank god for this good news from VA, a beautiful state. Now: lets turn NC Blue! We can do it! I just voted early and it feels so good!
PeteKent:
You are insane and no one believes you. Also, we do not miss Hillary...she is actively campaigning for Obama. She's right here.
And with that, Obama, or more accurately, his supporters, needed those Gallup numbers to change the narrative. Now onto more state polls.
BUT... WAIT FOR IT!!! Here comes IBD/TIPP with a McCain SURGE!!!
sherwick said...
I am very concerned about the latest Gallup numbers. Surely Obama should be at LEAST 25% to 35% ahead by now. He has clearly not sealed the deal and as we all know, A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS!
P.S. Apologies for being a concern troll, but these latest Gallup numbers are very worrying.
WTF ?
vanessa...it's taken out context. it's stupid.
Yes Santa Claus, there is a Virginia!
I really wish people would stop talking about the national polls, and are of no value with regard to predicting the outcome of the election. This is particularly true of day to day fluctuations in the last week before the election.
Two positive polling notes (actually 3):
The Obvious: Gallup holds steady and improves the expanded LV model
2) Looking at Gallup's history for the post-reagan era, their registered voter total was closer to the real vote margin, rather than their 'likely'
3) I did an analysis of all daily trackers, utilizing the the maximum margin of error for each candidate. At his worst (and McCain's best), Obama is still 1.25% winner. At his best, he is a 12.5% winner. The average? 5.53% (1/2 below/above).
Zogby and IBD give him his worst performance - -1 for Zogby and -3.8 for IBD. Rasumssen range was 1 to 9 points.
'Splain this to me...
McCain/Palin are against redistribution of wealth.
Palin led a charge against AK oil companies, increasing their taxes via a windfall profit tax and sending those tax payments directly to her constituents. In 2008, every Alaskan will receive, on average, $3,269 in rebate checks. This is the highest amount in AK history, as it includes a one-time $1200 Alaska Resource Rebate to offset high energy costs. This $1200 rebate is funded by oil company taxes.
McCain has praised Palin for "going after big oil companies," which is deserved praise. However, this policy does not seem very different than the tax policy Obama proposes.
Can someone explain how one plan is socialism yet the other is merely a rebate?
@Vanessa
Considering that the GOP VP pick couldn't even name a Supreme Court decision except Roe V Wade a in depth conversation about SC Warren era decisions not changing overall economics seems a little too contrived.
It won't resonate with anyone but the right-wing nutjobs who don't understand what Obama was saying in the first place.
Even though PeteKent is obviously satire, it makes me wonder how Hillary would be doing at this stage of the game. I think she would've benefitted more from the Wall Street meltdown than Obama did.
vanessa = John Zogby
Add one more to the list.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/27/former_gop_senator_backs_obama.html
Where are all of the McCain Democrats?
Obama event in Canton, OH
Link
Palin event in VA
Link
Can anyone explain to me what McCain was doing campaigning in Iowa last week? Was he lost? Is he crazy?
Where are all of the McCain Democrats?
Joe Lieberman, duh!
And uh...
um...
...
That's it.
dvdmgsr,
Whilst you are not incorrect, when one candidate has a comfortable lead, say 8-10 points, that really does make the state polls less meaningful as with a handy lead you are pretty much guaranteed an electoral college win. If the polls were around 2-3 point leads you would have an excellent point. At the moment its just a good point.
Ha! The negative liberties that Rush is foaming at the mouth about, is actually in opposition to Marxist teachings...
via Wiki
"The concept of negative liberty refers to freedom from interference by other people. According to Thomas Hobbes, "a free man is he that in those things which by his strength and wit he is able to do is not hindered to do what he hath the will to do." (Leviathan, Ch. XXI, [2])
The distinction between negative and positive liberty was drawn by Isaiah Berlin in his lecture "Two Concepts of Liberty." According to Berlin, the distinction is deeply embedded in the political tradition. The notion of negative liberty is associated with British philosophers such as Locke, Hobbes, and Adam Smith, and positive liberty with continental thinkers, such as Hegel, Rousseau, Herder, and Marx."
sherwick was being totally ironic, it was a parody.
@OTF
"McCain will win AZ unless an absolute landslide. But, has a sitting elected official of the state ever lost their own state in a presidential election? Gore lost TN but he wasn't a sitting elected offcial at the state level at that time."
McGovern lost South Dakota as a sitting Senator. Stevenson lost Illinois as a sitting Governor. Those are the most recent examples. So, only in massive landslide conditions does this happen.
Obama live on CNN feed for closing argument speech
@vinny,
That's doubtful. Bill would be lumped in with the republicans.
thank you lat lol
http://nymag.com/news/politics/51570/
Chuck Schumer cites your numbers Nate! You probably ought to see if the DCCC will hire you!
Vinny said...
Even though PeteKent is obviously satire, it makes me wonder how Hillary would be doing at this stage of the game. I think she would've benefitted more from the Wall Street meltdown than Obama did.
Hillary is capable of being a Senator that goes down in history books for legislative achievement. She can be a lion of the Senate during a time of great legislation. no need to worry about what ifs. Why do you think Bill and Barack haven't campaigned together. The clintons are very polarizing, especially Bill. I like the clintons, but I speak the truth. Yes, Hillary would've probably beat McCain, but let's not forget, Palin would not be on the ticket. I wonder who Hillary woud've chosen for Veep and who McCain would've picked.
Scott, an American's comments aside, I think you are correct that not a lot of votes were swayed in Virginia. That said, I think it perfectly encapsulated the thoughts of the McCain campaign: real Virginia which is pro-gun, military and is a southern state will never vote for Obama.
Three problems with that:
1) Virginia now has the very urban and suburban north - the so-called fake Virginia - with a lot of real votes
2) Obama has pushed hard in the "pro-gun" or "real Virginia" areas (as I have seen first hand when I traveled south to canvass) and people have appreciated this, even if they have not agreed with every Obama position
3) If you run enough ads, as Obama has, without any response, which McCain had not until recently, you can sway some votes
So yes, the idea that Pfoutenhower (sp?) expressed has been a serious issue in Virginia. But it had more to do with their (the McCain campaign's) underlying thoughts directing their action and not the expression of those thoughts.
What will you libs do on 11/5?
Whilst you are not incorrect, when one candidate has a comfortable lead, say 8-10 points, that really does make the state polls less meaningful as with a handy lead you are pretty much guaranteed an electoral college win. If the polls were around 2-3 point leads you would have an excellent point. At the moment its just a good point.
My point is more that with a week left, are we going to discern a clear 8-10 point lead in the national polls? I suppose it's possible...
Isiah Berlin is probably the most famous anti marxist philosopher of the 20th century. He worked with the OSA during WWII and was a voice against the Soviets during the Cold War. His most famous essay on the two concepts of liberty endorses the idea of negative liberty. These ditto heads would not know this because they abhor reading.
I wish Gallup didn't include "traditional" LV, and instead settled on an LV they think is accurate. FReeptard cherry picking should be discouraged.
Vinny said...
Where are all of the McCain Democrats?
Joe Lieberman, duh!
Some of my favorite pols are Jews.
That said Lieberman is not a Demcorat, he's a Judas.
Reality Check Update:
Daily trackers comparison - last Monday/Today
R2000/Kos: O+8/O+8
Rasmussen: O+4/O+5
Hotline: O+5/O+8
Zogby: O+6/O+5
Battleground: O+1/O+3
Gallup RV: O+11/O+10
Gallup LV1: O+9/O+10
Gallup LV2: O+5/O+5
Average Change since last week: O+.625
From a northern virginian. When pfotenhauer and mccain's brother insulted nearly 1/3 of the electorate of virginia they pretty much made sure that obama would win. Im not sure who these two are rooting for but i put my money on barack since they obviously don't want us to vote mccain with those insults.
"What will you libs do on 11/5?"
MASSIVE CELEBRATORY ORGY!!!
As someone who lives in Northern VA, or the People's Republic of Arlington as it's comically known by local Dems (and Repubs), I can attest that a lot of people, from all over the spectrum, were at best puzzled and at worst pissed by the McCain camp's comments. I just don't get why you'd go knocking anyone in VA...I mean, a vote's a vote, even from inside the Beltway.
Wait, wait...I just checked my driver's license, it turns out we *do* live in the USSR. Damn. Guess I'm voting for Brezhnev!
Libs will celebrate when there is a new President-elect McCain and VP-elect Palin? You're insane!
So yes, the idea that Pfoutenhower (sp?) expressed has been a serious issue in Virginia. But it had more to do with their (the McCain campaign's) underlying thoughts directing their action and not the expression of those thoughts.
Pfotoenhauer and that slick Romney spokesperson are some of the only bright spots to come out of this cycle for the GOP. Too bad for Pfotenhauer, she might have screwed up her future somewhat.
Pollster.com has GA as a toss up now!
Interesting how the Gallup "expanded" LV model has now moved into alignment with the RV poll and is now showing a wider lead than the "outlier" R2000. :-)
RCP just moved Arizona to lean McCain.
HAHAHAHAAAAA!
In Soviet Virginia....Barack votes for you!!
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/
OBAMA MAINTAINS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD AMONG
LIKELY VOTERS IN THE HAWKEYE STATE:
With about one week to go until Election Day, 48% of registered voters in Iowa support Senator Obama compared with 40% for Senator McCain. Among likely voters, Obama receives 52% to McCain’s 42%. In a Marist Poll conducted last month, 51% of likely voters supported Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
[PDF]
CANDIDATES LOCKED IN TIGHT RACE...
OBAMA EDGES MCCAIN AMONG LIKELY VOTERS:
Senator Barack Obama has a narrow lead over Senator McCain among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Obama receives 50% to McCain’s 45% among these voters. Neither candidate has statistically gained nor lost ground in the state. In last month’s Marist Poll, 51% of likely voters said they supported Obama while McCain had the backing of 45%.
Stephen Ryan said...
As someone who lives in Northern VA, or the People's Republic of Arlington as it's comically known by local Dems (and Repubs), I can attest that a lot of people, from all over the spectrum, were at best puzzled and at worst pissed by the McCain camp's comments. I just don't get why you'd go knocking anyone in VA...I mean, a vote's a vote, even from inside the Beltway.
Wait, wait...I just checked my driver's license, it turns out we *do* live in the USSR. Damn. Guess I'm voting for Brezhnev!
Truth is, if the elctoral college was divvied up perfectly fairly, they'd cede DC into Virginia and DC would count for 1 electoral vote. you'd have Virginia swing blue in every election. 14 electoral votes and growing for the Dems every election.
Palin would not be on the ticket. I wonder who Hillary woud've chosen for Veep and who McCain would've picked.
True. I can almost guarantee Hillary would've picked Obama, she would have a major handicap if she didn't. Obama had the freedom to not choose Hillary, but not vice versa. McCain probably would've picked Lieberman or Romney.
Another horrible day of polling for McCain. The Repubs only hope to keep their spirits up for the day is Rasmussen.
I can't believe this race is this close. McCain should be winning! WTF is wrong with you people?
Another horrible day of polling for McCain. The Repubs only hope to keep their spirits up for the day is Rasmussen.
Like usual.
Obama is trying to close strong
My thought on DC merging into Virginia might feel unfair to Southern virginia. Perhaps it sounds silly or you think DC is more like Maryland and if you're going to go that route, they should vote in Maryland. DC is more Virginia than Maryland. If you think your votes in southern Virginia would unfairly count less, talk to the Republicans in Northenr New York, Southern Illinois, or Western Pennsylvania. Or how about the Democrats in large cities in Texas or Florida.
Being a republican must suck. I can only imagine feeling like what I felt like that week McCain was ahead in the polls EVERY DAY. lmao
Chuck Schumer cites your numbers Nate! You probably ought to see if the DCCC will hire you!
The only rival Nate has to the amount of outlets and groups citing him are Obama's endorsements.
presidentraygun,
To further continue your argument, or explain it more simply:
Rush is taking Obama's phrasing "negative liberty" to mean that Obama dislikes those liberties. Where-as, even in the clips Rush uses, Obama explains the "negative" to mean a restriction on the State, as you say.
The fact that Rush and his dittoheads are using the incorrect definition of the term is just so downright astounding. That I expect them to do this is sad.
Does Sarah Palin even know who Earl Warren was?
Look the race is tightening and hopefully some of these toss-ups will remain red, less you want this country to be in shambles! I am not racist, but I don't trust anyone that was in that racist church for 20 years and I know A LOT of people like me that feel the same way. We can't have a President that hates white people.
Obama's 2001 interview is being taken seriously out of context.
That's par for the course for the GOP, though ... it's all they have left.
can you really dump me because i said the w@@rry word?
i and my entire family have always voted straight party for the Democratic party. that gives me some rights even to w@3ry!
but i wont use that word again!
Based on the fact both Clintons will be in NH this week, I suspect the 5-point poll may be in line. Nothing to worry too much about. Just seems NH is one of the few states that has shown any hope for McCain.
PeteKent said...
What will you libs do on 11/5?
Celebrate Guy Fox day, of course!
livemind--You should be worried if this democrat gets into office! Look at what they did the last 2 years in Congress! ugh!
PeteKent said...
What will you libs do on 11/5?
Celebrate Guy Fox day, of course!
Or maybe even Guy Fawkes day!
"Money is like manure. It doesn't do any good until you spread it around, helping young things to grow." --from Hello Dolly
luxcur!!!
PK
'What will you libs do on 11/5?'
I will be drinking heavily and hopefully enjoying a Celtic win over Man U ...
BTW Obama just turned the 'socialism' argument on it's head.
Mason said...
Or maybe even Guy Fawkes day!
I imagine it all depends on what kind of mask you have. ;p
Thanks for the correction, BTW.
Obama on fire in Ohio.
CNN World have Obama on as well.
A little undewhelming. Crappy background. Shaky camera. Sounds like the crowd is down the hall and it's all kids. Obama has a lot of weapons, and it doesn't look like he's driving the narrative. Call me crazy, but I reckon the internal polling is tightening in Camp Obama. Just a hint I'm getting from his speech. Pushback on "Government can't solve all problems" in America. And "socialism". I can't believe that meme has had any effect, but apparently it has, otherwise Obama wouldn't be addressing it, albeit in a throwaway line. Re-emphasis on tax cuts.
Or, it could be he's low energy because the internal polling is SO good.
Why is he throwing compliments to McCain? He didn't oppose torture (waterboarding), that's a fact.
Obama is simply locking up his strong leads in NH and PA this week he is NOT playing defense there. There are too many polls putting him way ahead there this means that the McCain Palin visits there only resulted in Movement to Obama or things staying the same. Obama has the luxury of closing there with many surrogates wihtout having to play defense much. He is playing offense all week long.
Also--it is truly amazing to me that people who think they know what being a conservative is do not know about negative liberty. This is the most basic concept. The ignorance really astounds. I mean I am not even a conservative and I know about it. Jeez.
I would rather celebrate the cartoon Guy Fox than the other Guy Fawkes on 11/5
but I will certainly celebrate the election of the next POTUS - BHO
enough is enough - only 8 more days !!!
As a native northern Virginian- I can attest to, yes, it was insulting. Not just taken individually because honestly we know we are different and "less southern" than the rest of the state but if you just look at our state house we are already polarized enough. We are constantly fighting for our fair share of funding from state tax revenues against those who claim that "real Virginia" should get more although paying much less of the tax pie. Need proof? Just drive through VA, the roads from Central VA down are gorgeous, the roads in NoVA are horrendous. Also to be noted, VA was the only state that Metro services that would not match the funding the gov said they would match. MD and DC did it in a second. Why? Metro only services "fake VA."
Also, NoVA is not all dem. by any stretch of the imagination. We are not just dems that migrated from DC. There are far more that moved in from more conservative states, plus those who moved up from more southern areas of the state because the jobs are up here. They really pissed of a huge part of the electorate.
This country will be destroyed under an Obama presdency! He has ZERO experience and this is too important for on-the-job training. You may not like McCain, but he is far more qualified than Obama! When you hire a person for a normal job, do you pick the LEAST qualified candidate?
Palin meets with Israel Amb to US, says "we look forward to meeting with your Jewish agency" this morning.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/10/palin_would_work_with_israels.php
Does Sarah Palin even know who Earl Warren was?
She thinks he's former manager of the Baltimore Orioles.
porridgegun,
I saw a bit of Obama on BBC news, and looked like him being him. The part tey should was very passionate, I didn't get the feeling that he was jumpy I got the impression he was in control, confident and enjoying pushing back the GOP cr*p once more, then laying out his plans again. Good stuff I thought.
MysticLaker--The crowd is just being boisterous, not that he is saying anything new or all that different!
Does Sarah Palin even know who Earl Warren was?
She thinks he's former manager of the Baltimore Orioles.
Does she even know where Baltimore is?
I am a recent move out of Virginia. I lived there for two years. As a civil servant, who worked inside the beltway, but voted in northern Virginia, I dunno what to make of the Fake Virginia comment. Are all these civil servants essentially fake people? I am not fake. And I voted for Webb. In Alexandria. And would vote for Obama in VA if I still lived there (damn job has moved me to Illinois, where Obama is gonna win by double digits, maybe 20+%, so my vote is just a feel good vote, not actually doing anything). Since I paid taxes in VA, lived in VA, patronized VA businesses, voted in VA, I don't feel like I wasn't a real VA'er. But, if being a real VA person meant I had to go out, buy a bunch of guns, say I was voting for McCain because n***ers scare the jah-zus outta me, talk funny, and call my first born kid Scooter, then maybe I'm proud to have been a fake Virginian. The comment was as much about celebrating a VA past that embraced ignorance and fear as it did about heritage. And it begs the question, what are Conservatives conserving, exactly? If it's hate and fear and ignorance, I think progress is more important than conservation.
As to anyone afeard of the tightening of the polls, remember:
1- Polls don't mean much.
2- Everyone paying attention figured it would tighten somewhat (and it is).
3- If I had told you on August 15th that you'd be looking at Gallup, Zogby, and Rass having Obama +5 with 8 to go, you'd've danced long and happy on August 15th. Enjoy it.
Of course, this is, good news for John McCain. If you think he'd like to get back to Congress and not have to spend 4 years listening to Sarah Palin (I think that's likely).
Poll Pool
I took all current 11 polls in RCP (each of the two Gallups given half weight) and computed the results considering it one grand poll (all participants put together) which amounts to giving each poll a weight proportional to its number of participants (thus minimizing the overall MOE). RCP gives each poll the same weight regardless of the number of participants. Here are my results:
Number of participants: 13,261
Obama Percentage: 50.66% (MOE=0.87%)
McCain Percentage: 43.82% (MOE=0.87%)
Obama ahead of McCain by: 6.83% (MOE<1.73%)
The second line shows that Obama's margin above 50% is almost statistically significant, and the last line shows that his leading is a statistical certainty.
Can we afford ON-THE-JOB training?
McCain/Palin 08--Ready on Day 1
MysticLaker--The crowd is just being boisterous, not that he is saying anything new or all that different!
No, that's actually you and your troll posts that's not "saying anything new or all that different!"
I'm not so sure Pfoefen actually insulted anyone in VA with that comment - any independent minded Virginians care to comment?
I can't really speak objectively since everything about the socially-conservative wing of the Regressive party patently offends me. All this horsecrap about "real America" and McCarthyism; about the US being a Christian nation, which shows such callow ignorance about the culture of the country's founders that it's staggering; the assault said theocrats launch against science and reason.
After all of that, I'm pretty numb to them calling my region of Virginia a bunch of anti-American commies. They do far more damage with their actual policies and actions--and wish to do far greater damage yet--than their meaningless spew of hatred and intolerance.
PORRIDGE
today's Obama speech is a 'policy' speech to the nation
not meant to be a big campaign rally
it is his 'summation' of his case for election
also, it is meant to be a rather small scale, controlled delivery
after a week of HUGE outdoor rallies with massive crowds, this is Team Obama's counter-balnce in a more intimate setting that allows him to connect with the TV audience & deliver key sound bites for the network news cycle tonight
it is strategic. not all big crowds with stump speeches will work at this point
then again on Wed Obama & Bill Clinton are to give a BIG rally here in central FL to try to secure this state
but then they will balance that out with the intimate TV address to the entire nation on the networks
you need both IMHO
great rhetorical flourishes right now - here it comes !!!
Michael said...
"Chuck Schumer cites your numbers Nate! You probably ought to see if the DCCC will hire you!"
Michael, No one is citing your numbers, but I bet you could still get a job with the RNC. They love lying statistics.
pa john--Is dissent allow on this blog or is this just an example of internet groupthink?
Does she even know where Baltimore is?
She can see Charm City from Soviet Virginia.
Bradley effect,
Whenever I hear a sentence that begins with "I am not racist, but" I know I am about to hear a bunch of racist garbage. Nice try troll. Your racist clap trap is history, so get used to it. Obama as president will held put a nail into your coffin.
PPP NC
O: 49
M: 48
Tightening.
Palin is ready on day 1
LOL !
Um, technically, Virginia is a state. It is a "commonwealth" in title only. That is, "commonwealth" is used in fancy formal situations; otherwise, it's "state". E.g. we have state troopers, not commonwealth troopers, a state bar, not a commonwealth bar, a state lottery, not a commonwealth lottery, etc. Googlefight says "state" occurs 4 times more than "commonwealth" on the state's web sites. (Just for fun, we have a Virginia Commonwealth University and a Virginia State University. :-)
Anyway, as to the question -- Yes, as a life-long resident of Northern Virginia, I found Pfotenhauer's remarks insulting, though not surprising.
PPP NORTH CAROLINA [D]
Obama was up 7 there last week, McCain has made up ground there in a weeks time.
Obama: 48
McCain: 47
Link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1027484.pdf
MysticLaker said...
Obama on fire in Ohio.
That's not the impression I'm getting. He's phoning it in and is low energy. His speechifying in Florida and Virginia blows this out the water. He's got the same look in his eyes he had after Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas during the primaries. Seriously, he looks like he just rolled out of bed. Maybe the huge rallys in Colorado and New Mexico have knackered him. If he's not connecting with me on television, he's not connecting with the people in attendance
PPP North Carolina
Obama 49
McCain 48
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
pa john--Is dissent allow on this blog or is this just an example of internet groupthink?
If you had something intelligent to say, then sure.. you are more than welcome. But spewing freeper talking points like "I am not racist, but I don't trust anyone that was in that racist church for 20 years and I know A LOT of people like me that feel the same way. We can't have a President that hates white people.
" pretty much sums up the definition of "troll". On November 5th, feel free to go Fawkes yourself!
michael - your numbers are wrong. It's 49-48, with 1% supporting Barr.
Bradley Effect:
Should I ditch my values to vote for McCain and Palin because they will be ready to go on Day 1 (despite McCain having no experience as an executive and Palin having BAD experience as an executive)?
I cannot vote against my core beliefs. If I even bought into your argument that McCain/Palin are ready on Jan 21 and Obama/Biden are not, I STILL would not vote for McPain/Failin'. And, ask yourself. If the experience were reversed, would you vote for Obama/Biden based on experience, when they likely run counter to your values on more issues than not? I suspect we know the answer, so please, confine yourself to better rhetoric. This line is crap.
So, when is the Liberal Media going to cover Sarah Palin's "spread the wealth" gaffe?
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/11/03/081103taco_talk_hertzberg:
For her part, Sarah Palin, who has lately taken to calling Obama “Barack the Wealth Spreader,” seems to be something of a suspect character herself. She is, at the very least, a fellow-traveller of what might be called socialism with an Alaskan face. The state that she governs has no income or sales tax. Instead, it imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields. The proceeds finance the government’s activities and enable it to issue a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state. One of the reasons Palin has been a popular governor is that she added an extra twelve hundred dollars to this year’s check, bringing the per-person total to $3,269. A few weeks before she was nominated for Vice-President, she told a visiting journalist—Philip Gourevitch, of this magazine—that “we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.”
Obama's speech is building to the crescendo now
HOPE...
YES WE CAN !!!
"pa john--Is dissent allow on this blog or is this just an example of internet groupthink?"
Yes to both.
He'll be energized in Pittsburgh tonight I'm guessing.
I think he is thrown off by the noisy kids in the crowd. This is a rare case of wrong venue.
He still comes across better than McCain at nearly all his events.
I am sorry Matt... Still down from a 7% edge for Obama to just 1%.
Two polls out today show McCain making movement.
MO- From 8 to tie. [susa]
NC- From 7 to 1. [ppp]
RE: Wealth trickling down.
Bush followed that philosophy and gave the folks at the top huge tax breaks. Now, eight years later, can anyone honestly claim that wealth has trickled down?
Even the most diehard believer in trickle down theory has to start wondering if maybe giving the tax breaks to consumers might work better. Drive up demand to drive up production and grow the economy.
"Two polls out today show McCain making movement."
And several others show movement the other way. People obsess too much over trying to read the tea leaves around here.
PorridgeGun said...
MysticLaker said...
Obama on fire in Ohio.
That's not the impression I'm getting. He's phoning it in and is low energy. His speechifying in Florida and Virginia blows this out the water. He's got the same look in his eyes he had after Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas during the primaries. Seriously, he looks like he just rolled out of bed. Maybe the huge rallys in Colorado and New Mexico have knackered him. If he's not connecting with me on television, he's not connecting with the people in attendance
Not to be too blunt, but you would be wrong. He's acting Presidential for the Inedpendents as opposed to inspirational from earlier speeches. He's fantastic right now in Canton. He's closing the deal big time.
Real Joe said...
lisa
its a typo
October 27, 2008 12:11 PM
actually i dont think it is nate is saying obama is predicted to win all those states by ten or more except NH.
The last eight days when a Republican campaign is down a lot is fun to watch until you realize there is a base of people who ACTUALLY believe the crap.
However, it appears the history and issues are in Obama's corner this year.
The choice of Sarah Palin, the newest "darling" of the social conservatives, only verifies the Republican war on anything intellectual. The GOP has to understand that it worked when they dumbed down the issues - not the candidate - in their efforts to hold power in the past.
Sarah Palin's existence is superficial. She can parrot lines well. She has the depth of a minute old puddle. How anyone can take her seriously is a testament to how out of control the effort has been by the GOP to dumb down the process.
Having intellectually curious people in government is what conservatives do not want. Conscientious conservatives, maybe. Socially conservative and draconian economic conservatives do not want it. It invites the potential for government actually working well.
Truth is, the neoconservative will get power then bury government just to make sure he/she can prove that government doesn't work.
See the last eight years. The beast is starved. Whoever takes over will be left with the task of rehabilitating it to health, at most.
If that is John McCain, you are one heartbeat away from a woman who likely would not be hired to the position of assistant manager of a Sizzler running the government.
What amazes me is that McCain will still get 45% despite this reality.
Neither Missouri nor North Carolina are key to Obama's electoral strategy. Both would be icing on the cake and I suspect that both, along with Florida and perhaps Ohio, will be exceptionally tight.
Sorry, but I don't know what speech some of you are watching. That was a powerful speech. It was extremely well constructed and he sure sounded fired up to me.
inkstain. I am making comment about polls by the same companies week over week.
PPP-NC
Last week: O+7
This week: O+1
SUSA-MO
Last week: O+8
This week: TIE
Rasmussen
Last poll: M+21
This week: M+6
Michael said...
I am sorry Matt... Still down from a 7% edge for Obama to just 1%.
Two polls out today show McCain making movement.
MO- From 8 to tie. [susa]
NC- From 7 to 1. [ppp]
Really. Who cares. you want to bleieve you'll squeak out victories in Missouri and North Carolina, fine.
Show me a poll where McCain is not way, way behind in Virginia, Colorado, or Pennsylvania.
Obama wins this thing with 300+ electoral votes. The only question is will it be closer to 300 or 400. And Elizabeth Dole is out, whether Obama wins North Carolina or not. You like apples?
"Two polls out today show McCain making movement."
There are thirty-two polls showing the race the same as last Monday or Obama pulling ahead of last Monday.
The media needs a horse race. Real Clear Politics does the same thing to sell advertising.
MICHAEL
cherrypicking your polls again
pretty pathetic, no ?
especially since you are talking about a 'surge' for Mac in 2 RED states - where the best he can get is a tie in one poll each ?
lol, and with over a million votes already cast in NC early voting
guess who those favored ???
hint, initials are BHO
The news from MO and NC is disappointing of course, but still... consider this:
If Obama wins all of the states that were won by either Gore or Kerry (Gore won IA and NM, while Kerry lost them; Kerry won NH, while Gore lost it) and picks up one of the following...
Colorado
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Indiana
Ohio
...he wins. If he just picks up Nevada, he forces a 269-269 tie which is broken by the House of Representatives. In that case, it's kind of a tossup because each state has only one vote, and although the majority of states have more Democrats in their House delegation than Republicans, Democrats in a red state might be unwilling to vote for the candidate who their constituents rejected.
Nate, you almost gave me a heart attack!
'We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits.'
Had to read a couple of times to get that NH was a win projection, but just a single-digit win projection. Jeesh!
Just goes to show how stressed we are all getting.
Honestly I'm not surprised on the NC and MO numbers, nor would I be surprised to see McCain win those states.
Too bad for him, it won't matter. When Va and Co go blue, the election is over and Obama is president-elect.
Looks like America is coming back to it's senses. Vote NObama on November 4th. Hopefully the blacks wake up and stop voting solely on race, and start voting for the best interest of OUR country!
Here in Virginia (where I am) we are well aware of how important our state is in this election and there's a real electricity in the air. I also think there's little chance of a let up due to any sort of overconfidence.
I hope Obama plays up the tax cut calculator during his TV special Wednesday night. I think it's a brilliant idea.
The Game said...
Sorry, but I don't know what speech some of you are watching. That was a powerful speech. It was extremely well constructed and he sure sounded fired up to me.
Agreed. All those inspired by him throughout are onboard already. This speech was for the jurors who haven't quite made up their mind. He closed them too. he was fantastic, per usual.
So, Mr. Simpson, you admit you grabbed her can.
In the PPP they ask people who they voted for in 2004.
Bush-50
Kerry-44
Is it just me or does that tell you something about PPP's poll. Bush won the state by 12 points, but their sample only shows a group of people which had him up 6.
HMMMM
That was a good speech.... I don't know what some of you guys are talking about. I mean, it surely didn't turn any undecided voters away and probably drew some in who haven't heard him speak like that very often.
--Truth is, the neoconservative will get power then bury government just to make sure he/she can prove that government doesn't work.--
Once again - neoconservatism is a narrow ideology totally concerned with US foreign and military policy. There are neoconservatives who have no problem with big government, abortion rights, gay rights, et al. Those are not the issues they care about.
The term gets much misued here. Neocons are the ones who wanted to invade Iraq after 9/11, who want to bomb Iran, who want to confront Russia over Georgia. They don't care about the domestic agenda.
Elizabeth Dole is pathetic!!!!!!!!
I'm not sure anyone ever believed that Obama would win North Carolina or Missouri by 8 or 9 points. Those are tough swings. It happens in a landslide, but those are Republican flips. That's the benefit of a site like this. We can stay realistic.
I went to the wedding of an Alaskan bridegroom this weekend. In their circulation to the tables at the reception, the bride and groom mentioned how his Alaskan friends and family did not like the Governor any longer. They had apparently been joking with the happy couple that they would set up a Palin-themed question booth at the back of the hall. This came up when my wife mentioned to the bride, whom she has know since childhood, that this must be a fun time to move to AK.
I love that Missouri and NC victories is the optimistic outlook for repubs. Genius.
Michael said...
In the PPP they ask people who they voted for in 2004.
Bush-50
Kerry-44
Is it just me or does that tell you something about PPP's poll. Bush won the state by 12 points, but their sample only shows a group of people which had him up 6.
HMMMM
It would be just you DUMBASS. Now you're showing your true colors as a non-intellect that doesn't get numbers. The electorate has changed. There are over 600,000 new voters in North Carolina in 2008 from 2004. That would be the reason. PPP is a solid pollster, regardless of whether you're ignorant and dumb or not.
Pfotenhauer's comments were insulting, and hurt the McCain campaign in Virginia inasmuch as they became the story, instead of whatever campaign talking point she was trying to push.
If she had just said that they were expecting to do better in the more traditionally Southern, more rural parts of Virginia, it would have been unremarkable. But instead she had to go into George Allen territory with "real Virginia," and to double down when given the opportunity to clarify. And trying to explain away their bad performance in Northern Virginia by claiming that everyone there moved over from DC was just whiny and stupid.
I doubt she directly changed many votes, but she made it harder for them to win new support at a point when they're behind.
What's really telling, Michael, is that a sample who went for Bush +6 is now Obama +1. That's a big swing. GOP might still hold NC, but a 7-point swing like this shows exactly why Obama is going to win the election.
Michael:
I agree on the PPP poll, and they have a good write up. They will be polling it again - they are based in NC and know the state, so that's one to watch.
The last SUSA MO poll was taken 2 weeks ago, and IMHO was a slight outlier, as no one else had that big a lead for Obama. R2000 and Mason-Dixon already show it to be a dead hit from their polling last week. Rasmussen had it +5 last week, will be interesting to see it this week, but a dead heat seems likely.
LOL...
"Hopefully the blacks wake up and stop voting solely on race, and start voting for the best interest of OUR country!"
Fortunately for them, they can vote for both of these at the same time. ;-)
That was indifferent from Obama. His speech could easily have been delivered in front of a McCain-sized crowd. He had no energy and barely smiled at the end. Total contrast to what saw in Florida last week. People will call it sober and presidential, I call it worrying. He genuinely looked tired and withdrawn. This has been his worst day for a while.
Speech was very good and it contained some very good sound bites that should end up dominating the 'MSM' over the next 2 days which will confine McCain and the Bimbo to page 2.
DOW rose 75 pts while he was speaking :)
GAME & ERIC
I agree
that was a well crafted rewrite of the Obama speech he just finished
the ending brought the roof down if anyone was listening
he laid out his ideas on evrything
embraced EVERYONE
called for UNITY
and better days ahead
it was his preacher sermon style of call & response then build up to the connection on a personal basis that wins the TV audiences
did you note he seemed to drop his lazy southern drawl today ?
that was a great delivery of a policy sppech
start low key, lay it allout with minimal interuptions by design
build to a fever pitch
draw in the crowds as you deliver to the TV
present a winning conclusion - which he did precisely by design once again IMHO
good delivery as intended & expected
exactly like the speech in Denver to close the convention
Neocons used to be democrats before they became neocons...
"McCain made a huge mistake by not picking Romney."
Romney would have lost the rust belt worse than a Palin candidacy. He and his company have gutted dozens of Midwestern manufacturers. They come in, buy the place, promise everyone their jobs are safe, then lay them off and send the jobs to Mexico.
Mitt is the quintessential Republican, clothcoat elitist who sold his soul on the abortion issue the moment he left office as Governor of Massachusetts.
Why don't you have him winning New Hampshire when he is ahead there by anywhere from 8 to 15 points in the polls.
Follow this link to see why McCain must lose!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
We're raising McCain!!
Fuck all you douchebags.
Polls asking people who they voted for in the last election are very suspect.
People who regret their vote (that is, for Bush) in noticeable numbers will tell pollsters they voted for Kerry. This stuff happens all the time.
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