We're now going to break out the projected result in Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts explicitly for you, as both states award one vote to the winner of each CD.
The simulation has always been doing this behind the scenes, but given the extra attention these states have gotten from the campaigns, we have made the procedure more robust. Specifically, we are now using our regression analysis to allocate the vote within each state according to our standard litany of demographic variables and political metrics. (Before, we had simply been using the 2004 vote). I do NOT intend to use polls from these districts, mostly because there aren't very many of them, and where we have them they are subject to very small sample sizes (a 600-person poll of Nebraska means only about 200 voters in each CD).
Here's what the situation in Nebraska looks like:
NE-2, which essentially overlaps the city of Omaha, is Obama's best opportunity to pick up an electoral vote in Nebraska. Our model estimates that it will run about 12 points more favorable for Obama than the state as a whole. Right now, Nebraska probably isn't quite tight enough for it to matter, although there may be a fudge factor if Obama has a turnout operation there and McCain doesn't. Nebraska's 1st Congressional District, covering the college town of Lincoln and the Eastern portion of the state, is also theoretically winnable for Obama. He'll get crushed, meanwhile, in Western Nebraska. If John McCain has a nervous breakdown and replaces himself on the ticket with Jack Abramoff, Obama might win 537 electoral votes -- with Western Nebraska being the holdout.
Meanwhile, in Maine...
There's not as big a discrepancy here. ME-2, which stretches from Bangor into Maine's northwoods, is the inferior district for Obama, but probably shouldn't run more than about 2-3 points behind his statewide totals. Obama dominated McCain in fundraising in both ME-1 and ME-2, and while ME-2 does present some demographic challenges for him -- there are some of Ed Muskie's "Cannocks" up that way -- it also has a higher percentage of young voters than ME-1, which should help Obama somewhat.
Lastly, some bad news ... the polling thread won't be ready until LATE tonight.
10.06.2008
What's Different About This Map?
@ 3:01 PM
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682 comments
I think some pollsters (SUSA) breaks this down into sub-samples. Would it be too much effort to include those polls, small as they may be?
Personally, I doubt NE-1 and NE-2 are that close, but that's just my base inclination. Palin wouldn't be sent to a +6 area, even if it were just to "secure" it. Again, just a feeling.
Thanks for your hard work.
Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson
I wonder if all states awarded EVs by district how differently the electoral map would be.
We should fear that we don't live in a democracy any longer. The cyber security with current voting machines is in the bronze age and paid GOP computer hackers alter results going from polling stations to district offices which total the results. Also, GOP members in office are purging voters in VA, MO, and LA. Please see the videos and sites below, then call the Obama campaign to express your concern and voice your opinion (especially if you are a contributor like I am) and tell them you want something done about it.
Obama campaign number is 1-866-675-2008 and press option 6 to speak to a volunteer. They are answering the phone 7 days a week.
How the next election will be stolen:
markcrispinmiller DOT blogspot DOT com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html
We need to take action:
verifiedvoting DOT org
The voter purging in Virginia (and in general):
www DOT brennancenter DOT org/content/resource/voter_purges
It is our responsibility to take action. Call someone, write someone, pass this along, talk about it, etc. We can't just sit idle and read about these things that are happening in our country and be passive.
This being my favorite website, I thought some of you might be going crazy over this election like I am. I wrote this piece about it, please read if you can.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-chun/the-case-for-insanity_b_132228.html
Thanks for all you are doing. Just signed up to go to PA or OH with other vets from NJ and NY. Time to put on our walking shoes.
How many times in the past have the votes been split? I know in 2000 and 2004 all the electoral votes in Maine and NE went to Bush/Gore/Kerry. When was the last time they did 'split'?
Enjoy the Sox game (I assume)... beat 'dem Rays.
Nate, I love the new map! You probably weren't responding to my advice specifically when I commented a couple days ago about wanting to see the district breakdown of NE and ME, but it's great to see that you're continually making the site a more reader-friendly experience.
Not quite as bad as Dick Morris´ electoral maps, but still off in about 10-15 states:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Another user friendly addition--as usual, good work Mr. Silver.
Complete non-sequitur: Where's Pete Kent been recently? I've been so looking forward to reminding him of how he trashed Nate's model because: "Nate's model also predicted that the White Sox would win the central division."
Hey Pete: How you feeling about Nate's model now?
Nate,
Polling update not till "Late tonight"! I will check in after the Red Sox game.
That USA today default map is "based on the last 4 elections", not on any polling data....
McCain has very little to offer anybody and if you read about him in Rolling Stone and his own book and read the lines between what he's saying he never has been fit for public office, let alone the Presidency.
Chris Rock: "Congratulations, you got the most votes. Too bad you lost. (Not this year)
An insane and dangerous career criminal text messages a death and stabbing threat against Bristol Palin-if that weren't enough mayhem for one week two days later he causes an alcohol related three vehicle head on collision near Santa Barbara-the complete story is at my blogs:
www.myspace.com/370392338
Also at my blogs Cutting Confessions the true story of two misfits brought together by fate-a midwestern man and an abused and artistic Beverly Hills girl find themselves and each other throughout Beverly Hills, Pasadena and the Las Vegas Strip-plus a 14 year old girl is raped when a Pasadena hospital screws up beyond belief-what would happen to her in Sarah Palin's America?
nice map Nate...LOL
there should be more polls coming out
28 days 2 go
Nate, I think you're wrong on one thing:
If McCain replaced himself with Abramoff, I think even Western NE would flip - Utah would be the only holdout. :)
Great work on the extra data breakout!
There are giant square crop circles in Nebraska. The end is near.
Your love of math, Nate, continues to be impressive! :)
Tell me, though: how do you think polling will adjust to the growing number of younger people who do not own landlines or answer polls on their cellphones? Is this a "hidden demographic" that can ever, truly, be worked into the algorithms?
Yours,
Dave
Maine-2 has more young voters than Maine-1?
Really?
PolicyBoy -
Though ME and NE can split their electoral votes by district, it has never happened.
To Policy Guy,
In 1828 Andrew Jackson split the vote in NY, ME, and MD.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama pick up a district in Nebraska. It would be very typical of the level of organisation he has shown.
Nate
Looks like you were right about RCP. Dem Corps came out with a 49v46 Split for O-M and RCP just included it in their Polling Data. Dem Corps was not included un till last week.
Someone is indeed cooking up their numbers!
"I think even Western NE would flip - Utah would be the only holdout. :)"
Well, NE-3 is polling behind Utah, and it and Oklahoma are the only votes that've been stuck at 0% the past few days, so they could be argued to be redder than Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alabama and Idaho. :)
where did you go to school Nate ?
Yale ?
It's great of 538 to show the individual districts.
Please discuss the possible effects third-party-candidates now?
McCain has a chance is Maine
Seriously, I don't think Oklahoma should be polling behind the other very red states either in probability or margin (it's closer than Utah and Idaho, but not Wyoming or Alabama) simply because it has an almost 50/50 party ID, even though the Dems there are very conservative.
clubok said...
Ras polls at 6 are OH, FL, VA, CO, MO.
Ellen, Third party candidates are included in the projections. They're the green in the pie-chart.
Nate, could you put up a table of the pollsters' house effects?
I'm from Bangor, Maine originally and I happened to be up there last weekend. I was at a local bar with some friends and someone shouted across the bar "who you voting for?" I was the only one voting for Obama. In fact I bet two people 10 bucks each that Obama would win. And they laughed like I was nuts. Shows you how informed they were.
The upper reaches of the state where someone like a Sarah Palin might have some appeal have been losing a lot of population, and the demographics are shifting older. Mike Michaud, a blue dog Democrat, is the Representative in the 2nd district and Olympia Snowe used to be the Representative from the 2nd District. So yes it's fairly conservative.
That being said, Bangor has a lot of folks from the University of Maine, and a pretty progressive artsy community. It's also been hit pretty hard in bad economic times. I don't buy McCain winning in the 2nd district because of the economy. If this were a boom year, I think McCain could take that one electoral vote. I could be wrong, but I believe the only county in Maine to vote for Bush in 2004 was Piscataquis county - which has a lot of Evangelicals.
Pundits and posters will look for one triggering event for McCain's collapse but the reason the shift to Obama is so fundamental and structural is because a clear narrative around McCain has emerged and it is reinforced by his past and present.
He boasts he's a maverick so it's even reinforced by him. Well mavericks are unpredictable, erratic and often reckless.
Look at his campaign and then look at his age. It is highly unlikely that he'll grow into the role of president, if anything his maverick tendencies will get worse, or he'll just lose his faculties altogether and we'll have Sarah Palin as president (another mavericky move by McCain picking a under qualified VP).
In short, in a time of great upheaval McCain has made himself too erratic and more risky than a black newcomer with an arabic name.
This narrative will stick, because there are just too many examples of McCain reingorcing it for even low info voters.
I think these Virginia polls gave me an orgasm.
SurveyUSA 10/04 - 10/05 666 LV 53 43 Obama +10
Suffolk 10/03 - 10/05 600 LV 51 39 Obama +12
If John McCain has a nervous breakdown and replaces himself on the ticket with Jack Abramoff, Obama might win 537 electoral votes -- with Western Nebraska being the holdout.
Agreed. I think I'm related to most of the Democrats there.
Great addition Nate.
However, I'm surprised you're not including polling data in your estimate. If the samples are small, just give them less weight--which is exactly what the model already does. Just as the regression provides a reality check on the polling numbers, the polling numbers provide a reality check on the regression estimates. The model is more robust when both pieces of information are taken into account.
I've become completely addicted to this site.
I came breathlessly to see the results of today's polling and I find that it won't be available until late tonight. I'm crushed.
But it gives me something to look forward to.
Oh, and, Hi everyone!
The Omaha newspaper is about the only source that could do a 500 poll of LVs in that particular CD. Do it two more times beyond that, 500 LVs, and you may be able to gauge a trend.
The election will likely be the only poll we see on Omaha's district. I think you can count all CDs in Maine to Obama at this time.
Nate, could you put up a table of the pollsters' house effects?
-----------------
Seconded.
Stephen,
If all states awarded EVs by district, then it would greatly benefit Republicans by diminishing the effect of large Democratic states like CA, IL, and NY.
There are many overwhelmingly Democratic districts (like D+30) than there are overwhelmingly Republican districts. Democrats tend to be conglomerated in urban areas, so they aren't spread out across a large number of districts. That means the Republican candidate would win more EVs.
This is a great addition to the model! I doubt either one of these will be that competitive, but good to watch nonetheless.
Search Engine Insights Into Election Trends
FreepTard Update
If Obama isn't up by 12-15 points, he is "toast"
After factoring in Bradley Affect and fears of socialism, you have to subtract 4-8 points from Obama's leads
Apparently, this poll isn't "valid" because it's REGISTERED VOTERS and isn't being tested against "REAL VOTERS"
Also, McCain will have a 4-7 point SURGE three days before election day
And finally, Obama is actually at fault for the stock market plummeting because it's reacting to "him winning"
"Real Joe said...
where did you go to school Nate ? Yale ?"
Nate went to the University of Chicago. You can look up the Nate Silver article on Wikipedia, among other places.
And hey, I've also been wondering about Pete Kent! I, too, have wanted to rub his nose in the White Sox claim. In fact, I read 538 just before reading ESPN, and since PeteKent said the Sox were eliminated I took his word for it and didn't even bother going to ESPN before sleeping. So, imagine my surprise when that Sox-Twins playoff showed up a couple of days later.
PeteKent, you inconvenienced and deceived me.
redjet said...
Oh, and, Hi everyone!
Hi :-)
Lucas said: Maine-2 has more young voters than Maine-1?
Really?'
University students bring the age down in northern Maine, Orono, UMFK, UMPI, UMM, Maine Maritime Husson, Bates etc.
Nate weent to the best school in the country, Real Joe, U of Chicago!!!
I did too!!!
Monsters of the Midway (well, we were at one time...)!!!!
"If Obama isn't up by 12-15 points, he is "toast""
As was predicted, their goalposts keep moving. I would like to see Obama polling 30 points ahead for many reasons, but one of them is to hear them say "He needs a 35 point lead..."
Doing national elections by congressionla districts EV is bad b/c it would be just like the house races in which only 20% of the districts are remotely competitive. Also, districs are already gerrymandered and this would make it even worse b/c you the redistricting would infleunce the presidential races.
The right wingers are going bonkers.
From the comments at http://www.hedgehogreport.com/?p=8597:
"People on the Right, libertarians and conservatives, are now tossing the idea out of seccession. The choice? Obviously Texas.
This may be our only solution.
Obama is a Nazi. If the Germans in some German States in the 1930s had threatened seccession, maybe Hitler couldn’t have risen to power. At the least, they might have had a fighting chance to avoid his Fascism.
Same here. We need to begin to prepare ourselves. This is going to get real, real ugly."
There comments use to get me annoyed, now they are just down right hilarious.
We need to do away with the electoral colege, but that is a future problem, today Obama MUST win the presidency...
thanks graham
Texas ??????????????????????????????
Ahhh, the left threatened to leave the country in 2000, since the right has no idea what the rest of the world is like they threaten seccession...nice!
Pete Kent - come take your medicine!
The debate tomorrow should be amusing, especially given that McCain -- rather than doing the smart thing and saying the Keating Five is behind him -- dragged out his lawyer to say McCain did nothing wrong.
The ever-changing map is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
"And finally, Obama is actually at fault for the stock market plummeting because it's reacting to "him winning"" (NC Voter)
In Indiana, we have a saying appropriate to the above logic: blaming the candidate from the non-incumbent party for the actions of the incumbent party is like blaming the rooster for sun up.
Truth is, we are where we are because of Reaganism, the scared Clintonistas who capitulated to the GOP House revolutionaries to pass legislation in exchange for deregulations, a lot of what George W. Bush did and didn't do, and twelve years of the GOP playing fast and loose with what they called the free market.
Blame can go around to us, too. We all THINK we are in the top 1% of earners. We aren't and we need to quit thinking because we have a credit card, we are rich.
Blaming Obama for the economic crisis is like blaming the rooster for sun up.
Please.
seccession is unpatriotic
The right alos does not seem to know a Nazi is an extreme right winger...interesting lack of education over there....
"The right wingers are going bonkers."
Good.
As they like to say -- let them move to Canada. Or Mexico. Or wherever religious kook knuckledraggers go these days.
They can all move to Alaska and impregnate Sarah Palin's daughters for all I care.
Seccession is patriotic if you are Sarah Palin! Come on - AIP forever and all that!
Lastly, some bad news ... the polling thread won't be ready until LATE tonight.
Alas, another benefit of being on the West Coast. It won't end up being so "late" for me.
Keep up the good work Nate! I am now a fivethirtyeight addict. By 7pm Pac time, I'll be sitting at the edge of my chair, tapping the refresh button with a very paranoid and fantic look on my face....I'll need another HIT!
"seccession is unpatriotic"
Then why are you voting for a candidate who's married to a secessionist, genius?
I am skeptical about the Virginia Polls because the Survey USA sample favors Democrats +9. Virginia has more Republicans than Democrats.
But I hope the poll is right.
Seccession is illegal or not ?
The right wing likes to focus on the 'socialism' part of National Socialism.
charles m. kozierok said...
"seccession is unpatriotic"
Then why are you voting for a candidate who's married to a secessionist, genius?
its Alaska
Gramps and the Nutjob both doing live speeches over on CNN.com Live.
I'm switching over between the two, neither have mentioned today's drop that I've seen.
I'm not the one doing the blaming, VOTM. I was quoting the freeptards. I agree with you 100%
Secession? Isn't that... treasonous? The same right-wingers who were calling anyone who initially opposed the iraq war "traitors" for "not supporting the president" are now suggesting actual treason? What a bunch of fucking hypocrites.
Who are these f*ucktards over at freerepublic.com?
Lucas said: Maine-2 has more young voters than Maine-1?
Really?'
University students bring the age down in northern Maine, Orono, UMFK, UMPI, UMM, Maine Maritime Husson, Bates etc.
Buck Fates. Go White Mules!
i'm not a constitutional expert but Secession is treason
???
Obama up big in North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling
10/4-5/08; 1,202 LV
Obama: 50
McCain: 44
Barr: 2
OBAMA +6!
wesley said...
Gramps and the Nutjob both doing live speeches over on CNN.com Live.
I'm switching over between the two, neither have mentioned today's drop that I've seen.
they will avoid that
"Who are these f*ucktards over at freerepublic.com?"
Now you know why the republicans have such a strong base, they're bound by stupidity.
Also, if Rasmussen's Virginia poll tonight is O+4 or better, Virginia will officially become LEANS DEM on RCP's electoral vote map. =)
The VA polls both show an advantage to dems, in 2006 the party ID advantage was solidly republican. Of course, that might be right as the Ras national party ID weekly number is skewing very blue, and bluer by the week.
nicholas said...
Obama up big in North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling
10/4-5/08; 1,202 LV
Obama: 50
McCain: 44
Barr: 2
OBAMA +6!
PPP is a liberal pollster
If Texas left the union, illegal immigration would be a sacrament in the Lone Star Nation.
Alaska wants to leave the union - let them. The Secessionist Party of Alaska wants it - let them have it.
Oil is their common denominator. That stuff must be like heroin to make you want to secede from the wonder that is the United States of America.
WOWZERS!
McCain hemorrhaging all over the map.
can Texas leave the union ?
PPP's results looked VERY fair back during McCain's bounce.
ALSO, Georgia senate poll, Chambliss only up by 1:
Research 2000 09/29 - 10/01 600 LV 45 44 Chambliss +1
"Obama up big in North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling
10/4-5/08; 1,202 LV
Obama: 50
McCain: 44
Barr: 2
OBAMA +6!"
Booyah!
Wait
Obama +6 in NC (a state where he overperformed the polls)
with a 1200 LV model, done by a polling agency located in the same state!
Best. News. Today.
NC, VA, OH, FL, IN, CO, NV will be blue. Obama landslide is the norm.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_100625.pdf
"Last week Obama led by two points. He is now winning 82% of the Democratic vote,
compared to just 74% a week ago. For most of the general election his share of his own
party’s vote has hovered in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.
“If 80% or more of Democrats in North Carolina really end up voting for Obama then
John McCain is finished here,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“Republicans have won here in the Presidential race for years by taking anywhere from a
fifth to a third of the Democratic vote, but if that doesn’t happen this year the state is
going to turn blue.”
Obama also has a 46-40 lead with independents in the state. He may have been aided by
his trip to Asheville in this poll. After trailing by an average of six points in the region
over the course of PPP’s last three polls he is leading 54-37 there this time."
Alaska would be attacked and taken over by Russia in a split second if they decided to secede.
Not going to happen.
And yes, it's treason.
Remember when Obama was losing by 20 points in North Carolina?
"PPP is a liberal pollster" - Real Joe
So I guess Rasmussen showing a +3 for Obama on 9/30 in North Carolina was off?
Rasmussen is getting paid by FOX and a few conservative magazines for polling this season. Does that mean they are not credible?
Put NC at +4 for Obama between the two and quit the excuses and cheerleading.
"Research 2000 09/29 - 10/01 600 LV 45 44 Chambliss +1"
Is there a Presidential poll attached to this?
Don't know if Texas can secede legally, but it could split into 5 states.
Surprised no conservative has tossed that one out yet.
One of the funniest things about this election is the total disconnect between how wingnuts think that Sarah Palin is viewed by the electorate, and how she is actually viewed. Every time she makes a high profile appearance or public comment like yesterday Obama ticks up another point. McCain, previously respectfully regarded by moderates, independents and Hillary Dems, is now sinking like a stone among those voters and is becoming a laughingstock.
"Seccession is illegal or not ?"
Good gravy.
Seccession is illigal, unpatriotic, and we used to shoot people for it.
if Texas left the union
can we visit Texas ??
Do you really WANT to visit Texas?
"Don't know if Texas can secede legally, but it could split into 5 states."
I think Congress has to approve new states. You really think Congress would vote to give Texans 5X the Senators?
The NC numbers make perfect sense. If Obama is up by 10 or 12 points in Virginia, he is up by 4 or 6 points in North Carolina. PPP gives Obama 38% of the white vote while SUSA and Suffolk look to give Obama somewhere 42% or so. That seems right to me.
brad said...
Do you really WANT to visit Texas?
TX is a great state
nice folks :-)
Well, if we really get a landslide we could get a new state or two - Washington DC and Puerto Rico!
Real Joe said...
can Texas leave the union?
only if the rest of the U.S. is very, very lucky.
"Seccession is illigal, unpatriotic, and we used to shoot people for it."
But it's okay for Republicans.
Doesn't matter anyway -- Palin is costing McCain the election and this is just one small part of it.
Look at the most recent favorable/unfavorable polls. McCain had to go negative - his own negatives are at 40%.
Negatives north of 40% are deadly to a campaign. Especially in this case where his favorables have stagnated at 35-37%.
You can see a direct correlation between the plunge in McCain's numbers nationally and in battleground states with his plunge as a favorable character.
kilb said...
only if the rest of the U.S. is very, very lucky.
Texas hater
I think Texas left behind the "split into 5" option when they didn't exercise it in 1846.
Interesting to think about, they joined the US and then tried to leave 15 years later.
nate, Sean, this is a great idea; it makes me very happy. But if I may suggest -- could the borders on the CD boxes be lighter & thinner, so that they look a little less jumbley? (also, so it looks less like they are separate states...)
I would suggest half that width & 50..75% black rather than the 100%
"There comments use to get me annoyed, now they are just down right hilarious."
That's what a 6-8-point national lead (not to mention two double-digit leads in VA) will do for one's attitude. The little crap that gets under your nerves when the race is deadlocked all of the sudden becomes petty and laughable when comfortably leading.
"PPP is a liberal pollster"
Actually, they don't have any Democratic lean, according to Nate. They have no house effect whatsoever. See his original house effects post. I agree with those who commented earlier saying that the house effects list should be made available.
RE: Table of house effects
Those of you who want Nate to post this should exercise a little initiative. Scroll down to the list of LABELS. It's on the left side, moderately far down. (You are aware of it, arent't you?) Click on the link and you will find 4 posts which mention it. The earliest of these contains a direct link to the table.
Anyway, here's the link.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php
Remember, Nate has to pay his host for storage. So many of the requests here require extra work for Nate and extra storage (and thus expnse). Not that you shouldn't feel free to ask if you think it would make a significant impact, but please do remember that there are many links here and that you should try first to see if there is a quick link. Then decide if it's imnportant enough to have it also on this site and thus end up costing Nate time and money.
The key to NC reading the is if Obama gets close to 80% Dem support McCain is toast. NC always has had a 12-13 pt Dem ID advantage but alot of them voted Republlican in the past.
Alot of folks in the south always voted repub after 1968, but are still isted as registered dems.
is that NC PPP poll for REAL?!?!?!
"There's a place in Hell reserved for women who don't support other women," the Alaska Governor said this Saturday.
Does this mean since she has admitted to not supporting and voting for Clinton, Palin is going to hell?
markeddman,
Yes the NC poll is real internals :
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19
North F'N Carolina. IF that goes blue then I just throw up my hands and kiss my wife and celebrate with a bottle of bubbly.
It makes me REALLY want to see a poll of South Carolina now...
Quick question: Do negative ads have diminishing returns over time or do they stick better the longer the meme is carried out?
NC voter. No kidding on the Russia invasion. How long would it take Putin to roll over Alaska if they "seceded?" Yeesh.
Those secessionist folks up there sound like they are a few ice bricks short of an igloo.
PPP has a OH poll in the field due for release either today or tomorrow.
New McCain/Palin campaign strategy: Enrage the base to get Obama assassinated.
It's their only hope at this point.
John:
Wow that's heavy. I wouldn't put anything past them though.
"New McCain/Palin campaign strategy: Enrage the base to get Obama assassinated.
It's their only hope at this point."
Hope for what? President Clinton?
@John: "New McCain/Palin campaign strategy: Enrage the base to get Obama assassinated.
It's their only hope at this point."
:''( I can't even go there. It's too frightening. Too horrifying to even contemplate.
There are already people who are fearful for Obama's life. I saw a discussion recently about how some people may actually be afraid of his winning, or of voting for him, because of the record of Dem assassinations in this country. :(
Delurking to say, secession would almost certainly be ruled unconstitutional & illegal by any US court.
While the Declaration of Independence is not binding, it does articulate a right to revolt against intolerable oppression, but that is distinct from a right to secede at will from the United States as formed under our current Constitution.
So basically, if people in Texas felt intolerably oppressed, there is philosophical grounds legitimizing the choice to revolt, ie to rise up and overturn the government, but no legal course of action under the US Constitution to smoothly leave. So any attempt would probably mean a war like that one a hundred fifty years back.
If you want a recent legal precedent, there is Kohlhaas v. State (2006) where in fact the Alaskan Supreme Court ruled a referendum for secession was "clearly unconstitutional" and refused to allow it on the ballot.
http://touchngo.com/sp/html/sp-6072.htm
LOL, that would be a stupid attempt. Then Biden or Clinton would win in a landslide.
judas_priest,
So is your understanding that Nate simply uses the Pollster? I thought that he did his own house effect calculations, but I could be wrong. If he only uses Pollster, though, how does he know that PPP doesn't have a lean, since PPP isn't included in the Pollster table? I am totally certain that he mentioned PPP since I just went back and read that original post yesterday.
Looking at that Pollster chart is bizarre. DemCorps actually has a GOP lean, which is a bit counter intuitive. It does help to explain their O +3 national result though. Quinnipiac actually has a slight GOP lean according to Pollster, which would (if I really believed it) make those polls in OH, FL, and PA last week look even better.
NC number made me sick
:-(
The Secret Service is a lot more professional than it was in the 1960s. Really.
As an early adopter for BO, when it was inevitable that Hillary was going to win, it's great to see that Hillary's persistence in staying in the campaign, digging in her (high) heels, and going to the very end . . .
IS GREAT NEWS FOR BARACK OBAMA!!!
I think it was Howard Wolfson or maybe Paul Begala who said all would be forgotten and that we'd thank her for that.
And they were right. The GOTV and registration drives have been massive. The name ID is now 100%. And Obama has been innoculated from all of the sewage that Palin and McCain are now flinging at him, as if they were shit-throwing monkeys.
Best of all, Barack Obama has become a pretty good debater, thanks to Hillary.
So, while the Clintons are doing sod all to help now (and Bill is clearly horrified), Hillary's brilliant decision to stay in till the end has made it very likely that Barack Obama will be our next President.
Thanks Hillary!
My English wife, who has no US citizenship and therefore no vote (my postal ballot is in the post by the way) wants you to all vote Obama, even you Real Joe. Go on do it or her! She has lovely soft hair!!
Hey real joe--
I'm serious, not kidding/baiting you--
In one sentence why are you for McCain?
Francis: The option is still there in the Texas Annexation Treaty, but the US Constitution overrides it -- as the US Congress would never allow it.
Snopes link
"Howard Wolfson"
Predicted to me in private conversation that the party would unite. I doubted him but he was right.
Thanks tbender.
Thank for de-cloaking shallot. nice post.
Speaking of secession, the last time some states got mad and tried to secede we had a big fight. I will chalk it up to you guys misremembering.
kid g, its hard to draw conclusions. My own sense is that a negative attack needs to be sustained over a period of time to let it affect the narrative of the campaign (see Gore liar, Kerry flip flopper storylines) but just flooding the campaign with a negative storyline doesnt work. It needs to be a dont vote for him because... vote for me because... And it can't JUST be character.
francis said...
Hey real joe--
I'm serious, not kidding/baiting you--
In one sentence why are you for McCain?
tax cut
This. Is. Awesome.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/06/sarah-s-doodles.aspx
markymark said...
My English wife, who has no US citizenship and therefore no vote (my postal ballot is in the post by the way) wants you to all vote Obama, even you Real Joe. Go on do it or her! She has lovely soft hair!!
why don't she get citizenship & vote for Obama
Real Joe-
A tax cut is not helpful if your assets are worth nothing. Vote Obama!
i'm fairly certain Real Joe is a teenager
"as if they were shit-throwing monkeys."
Actually, I believe that this is ARG's polling methodology. Just put numbers up a board and see where the monkeys hurl their stuff. It's a proven methodology that has produced some solid results for McCain thus far.
For anyone joking about McCain's new strategy is to enrage the base about Obama so he is assassinated should read this article of what someone said at a Palin rally yesterday...scary stuff. It's already happening.
You can find the article HERE
The irony here is that during the primaries, every right wing pundit was talking about how fractured the Democratic Party was. Now, the table seems to have turned.
Real Joe said...
seccession is unpatriotic
does this mean Todd Palin is unpatriotic??
"In one sentence why are you for McCain?"
McCain / Palin have the insight and true American ideals to lead us through the first quarter of the 21st century.
RE: Secession
There is no right to secede. See Texas v. White, 74 U.S. 700 (1869)
Not that it couldn't happen if both the state(s) involved and Congress agreed (would still require Presidential signature or veto override). It could also be done through constitutional amendment.
"Ain't gonna happen."
Advocating it is constitutionally protected feee speech and is not treason. Conspiring to bring it about through illegal means (insurrection, say), or actually doing those actions, is an act of treason.
Nate,
Whatever will you do with your time/life/website after the election?
realjoe,
I have tried to convince her that emigrating to the US is a great idea, but she likes her socialized medicine, free education and cucumber sandwiches.
Sam, probably his day job over at B-P.
sockpuppet alert
Just saw McCain's speech in NM. The crowd is hyper-amp'd, BEGGING Johnny to "Take off the gloves!" The crowd yelled out "Zero" so much (& Johnny, himself got in on the act) that I suspect he has now finally been reduced to 100% Freeper population now.
This is not a base/polarizing election this time. These rallies for both McCain & Palin (espec McCain) have become Howls in the Darkness, the last desperate cries of a beaten cur in the forest.
Wasilla's all I saw.
CNN/Opinion Research National
O - 53
M - 45
Thanks joe.
South Carolina and Georgia are both states where a Barr/Libertarian alternative to the GOP makes them game for a pickup for Obama.
What may not be factored here is big AA turnout, an angry electorate among white voters who feel the GOP may have duped them, and the Libertarian alternative.
NC, SC, and GA may all be in this boat and polls cannot measure that until Election Day.
During the primaries I did always suspect that the Democratic Party was mostly unified. There were two candidates with two egos fighting hard, but the logic was always that the party would coalesce around the eventual candidate. The GOP is far more riven with dispute. The Palin pick covered over the cracks a bit, but the lack of real enthusiasm is palpable even from a few thousand miles away.
@john
You would do well to delete your deeply offensive suggestion.
Dallas, Texas going for Obama?
While McCain was enjoying a national “Palin bounce,” District 108 wasn’t feeling the love.
Branch’s poll found that 47 percent of voters planned to pull the lever for Obama, only 45 percent for McCain.
That same poll found Branch leading Democratic challenger Emil Reichstadt 58 to 24 percent.
http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/2008/10/06/obama-leads-mccain-in-heart-of-bush-country/
7-11 Coffee Cup Poll:
Obama’s thumping McCain by 57% to 43%.
http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/2008/10/02/coffee-cup-poll-says-obama-in-a-landslide/
NBC News/WSJ national poll around 6:30 pm ET.
Real Joe said...
"McCain / Palin have the insight and true American ideals to lead us through the first quarter of the 21st century."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
McCain / Palin have the insight and true American ideals to lead us through the first quarter of the 21st century.
That's about as specific as they get on the issues too.
hurn, I think the real real joe (hm...) was suggesting that was a sockpuppet. The ID number is different.
McCain / Palin have the insight and true American ideals to lead us through the first quarter of the 21st century.
That's about as specific as they get on the issues too.
More specific than Palin gets.
PPP North Carolina
Obama 50
McCain 44
Great Video don't miss it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDofbll86dY
Kali said...
"7-11 Coffee Cup Poll:
Obama’s thumping McCain by 57% to 43%.
http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/2008/10/02/coffee-cup-poll-says-obama-in-a-landslide/"
I love this comment further down in the article:
"# Glenn Hunter @ October 2nd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Sam Merten: In defense of this admittedly silly poll, it accurately predicted Bush over Gore by 1% in 2000 and had Bush beating Kerry in 2004, 51% to 49%."
LOL. I guess it has a pretty good track record! ;-)
The intrade market for Ohio is 63-40 for Obama.
LOL
RCP has Virginia at +4.9 Obama right now, just 0.1 less than required to shade it light blue and add it to Obama's current count on their site.
They seem pretty desperate to not let Obama get over 270 in their projection, but pretty soon they're going to have to or face looking really silly.
Francis said...
"hurn, I think the real real joe (hm...) was suggesting that was a sockpuppet. The ID number is different."
Does it matter who said it, just the thought makes me almost pee myself.
If Palin thought she had insight she would go to an ophthalmologist to have it treated.
guys
that was a sockpuppet
What's Nate going to do after this election?
I think I overheard him say
"Beisboll hab been bery bery good to me."
I hope he keeps this site and does polling analysis as a talking head. Too bad I can't represent him and get him the big bucks in a Hollywood negotiation. (The reason is this post is too far down and he only reads the first 40.)
There are gubernatorial elections most years for Nate to watch, I think 538.com has enough of a political reputation to jump in on any election it wants to.
Marist Poll
Latest poll asks who is the better candidate to tackle health care. Among registered voters:
Obama 51, McCain 38
Despite the financial crisis, 78% say it’s better for the next president to deal with health care event if it means greater government debt.
things are not looking good :-(
"I hope he keeps this site and does polling analysis as a talking head."
Nate said in a recent interview or liveblog (I can't remember which) that he was planning on using his model to predict the House races in 2010. I'm sure that there will be other things to discuss where using data wisely will help us to better understand politics.
Is the people of USA more statist in this year?
Indiana University and the Indianapolis StarNews will be issuing a poll later this week and have commissioned Ann Selzer for the work. Indiana LVs, high respondents (1,000 plus), reliable sample by party ID, non-push, with third party candidates.
The Libertarians are on the ballot here and many are polling internally with the parties at 5 to 10 % for races from the governor through the Congressionals. No Senate race in IN until 2010 (Bayh).
Selzer is a great polling source for Midwestern states. The key number will be 1) If McCain sticks in the mid-40s and 2) If Barr is above 5%.
Real Joe said...
things are not looking good :-(
Funny...
CNN just reported that more people believe Obama is going to win the election than are voting for him.
People voting for McCain now believe their candidate is going to lose.
Boobot:
Wow! I didn't see that. I thought it was an interesting tidbit, but hey, maybe there's more to it.
Good catch.
Obama campaign is all over the WSJ article that McCain's healthcare plan cuts medicare/medicaid. McCain just saw his senior citizen numbers drop.
On that Marist poll, the presidential race numbers are:
Obama 49 McCain 44 (LV)
Obama 47 McCain 43 (RV)
Is Nate using LV or RV numbers in his calculations now?
CNN just reported that more people believe Obama is going to win the election than are voting for him.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE !!!
^_^
Kali:
Thanks, but I think all that it means is that the right will redefine "latte-sipping liberals" to include 7-11 coffee drinkers.
How come the left has just about every actor and director, while the right has David Zucker and Kirk Cameron? Just sayin'.
Real Joe, can you not post here for a week? You're single handedly ruining the comments section.
>>CNN just reported that more people believe Obama is going to win the election than are voting for him.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE !!!
Um...sorry to break this to you...but all that illustrates is that some of the repubs just gave up hope
That Marist Presidential poll is old. They reference the "upcoming" vp debate.
Marist 09/28 - 09/30 943 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Notice the date.
Matt,
Marist poll of what state?
Aw I like real joe. I feel for the guy.
I miss the daily tracker.
And the haiku!
538.com has switched to likely voters now I believe. Interesting that Obama voters are now more likely to vote. Enthusiasm gap?
The national trackers do look very, very bad for McCain, but what does the Real Joe tracker look like?
OTF, those are national poll numbers from Marist.
The funniest thing to me about those FreepTards is that they keep talking about how McCain's numbers should be going up because of the Palin/Biden debate. WTF? They must have watched a different debate than me because I thought she came off like a total moron. Did they not see all of the polls that showed Biden easily winning the debate? I think people are overestimating this idea of her "beating expectations" ... sure maybe she did - but she was still HORRIBLE.
Plus a lot of low info voters just got their first big helping of Joe Biden and he was really *really* good.
Is there an RSS for this site, or some other type of update service? That'd be a nice addition.
VC
what's going on ?
are you ok ?
@ Becky Sharp
>>CNN just reported that more people believe Obama is going to win the election than are voting for him.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE !!!
Um...sorry to break this to you...but all that illustrates is that some of the repubs just gave up hope<<<
Sorry, I was being sarcastic. I understand what it means, and am justly elated.
I'm not saying that Texas will go to Obama or anything, but it will be considerably closer than Oklahoma, Utah, Kansas and many other states. Kerry got more votes here than in Mass. or Illinois, so good luck seceeding.
Virginia Conservative, what's your take on the VA polls? Accurate?
National polls...national smolls.
What has me happy is the polls today..especially the VA polls and the NC showing 4 of last 5 NC polls with Obama lead. McCain really has to defend NC.
mia said...
Is there an RSS for this site, or some other type of update service? That'd be a nice addition.
feed:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/538dotcom
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