Nevada or Missouri?
Both states have been a little underpolled relative to some of the other battlegrounds, and Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling is asking his readers to decide for him where they go into the field next.
Also, as a bonus, here are the new polls that have already come out since we posted our update an hour ago. These polls are not yet included in our averages; I'm listing them as a courtesy so that people stop e-mailing me about them. But certainly some more good results for Obama here.
10.07.2008
What State Do You Want to See Polled?
@ 3:09 PM
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California. Mccain's on track to win it.
A Description of Partial Birth Abortion
Barack Obama has stated that his highest priority and first act will be to sign the "Freedom of Choice Act", a bill he co-sponsored, which bill would invalidate virtually all state and federal limitations on pre-birth murder, including this procedure:
"Dr. Haskell went in with forceps and grabbed the baby's legs and pulled them down into the birth canal. Then he delivered the baby's body and the arms; everything but the head. The doctor kept the head right inside the uterus. The baby's little fingers were clasping and unclasping, and his little feet were kicking. Then the doctor stuck the scissors in the back of his head, and the baby's arms jerked out, like a startle reaction, like a flinch, like a baby does when he thinks he is going to fall....The doctor opened up the scissors, stuck a high-powered suction tube into the opening, and sucked the baby's brains out. Now the baby went completely limp. He cut the umbilical cord and delivered the placenta. He threw the baby in a pan, along with the placenta and the instruments he had just used."
Missouri - it has more electoral votes.
These polls are GREAT NEWS!!! For JOHN MCCAIN!!!
Between those two, Missouri. But how about West Virginia or North Dakota which haven't really been polled since Obama's surge?
SHOW ME! Missouri!
Agreed, show me the show me state!
Missouri, please; news in these nuggets. We've got a good idea now about Nevada.
PeteKent, what does "partial birth abortion" have to do with expressing an opinion on which place to poll next? If you were in my classroom I would have you in the corner for disrupting the class!
Haven't seen polls in TX for a long time -- am I the only one who thinks it might be closer there than the repubs think?
Missouri! Polls here are few and far between.
Definitely Missouri. NV's in the bag for Obama, the only question is whether Missouri is following North Carolina's trend of slowly going blue, although the internals seem to be dramatically different.
Nth
lol
I think they should personally poll people in Montana. Phones are overrated.
I´d love to see a Texas poll by PPP. But out of those 2 states I prefer Missouri.
Off topic, but I feel compelled to say:
PeterKent you are way off....that is why Americans are turning away from these sorts of tactics.
Nate,
Weird, off-topic question, but did you go to pre-school in the Boston area? I think I was in your class...
Can't the answer be "both"? I guess I'd pick Nevada. Missouri is probably less polled recently, but NV is more likely to matter if the race gets closer. Unless Obama produces Guffman from his pocket, Missouri will not decide the election.
I'm not sure why there's so little interest in polling South Carolina. We haven't had a poll there in weeks, and with Obama gaining in both North Carolina and Georgia, seems to me there might be some interesting results to be found there.
STOP EMAILING NATE!!!
:)
I would like more Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Nevada please
let's throw in Montana for kicks.
Gracias
Nevada--I think this is more likely to flip.
Nevada, my older brother is working hard to turn the state blue....
yeah south caronlina and west virginia too
just seems logical to poll those a bit more considering how their neighbors are all trending to Obama
PeteKent- This website is not about the issues. Its about polls and interpreting and predicting elections.
anyone know what other polls we can expect today?
Missouri voters love the neighboring governor Kathleen Sebelius (D, KS). I think they might surprise the pollsters right about now.
Is it just me, or is anyone else wonder why the Great Smokey Mountains National Park is always pure white on Nate's map? Granted it is only one pixel big on the map, but I would have guessed that the bears would be strongly favoring Obama.
Fight for your right to arm bears!!
MO. My home state (U. City) and where I'm heading to canvas on Sat. And more EV.
GALLUP:
From Oct 2nd-5th in 2000:
Al Gore led George W. Bush 51-40
For Final Results
Google Florida Recount
I would like to see some of the Southern states: Georgia, South Carolina...maybe West Virgina. I say that because if Obama is projected to win Ohio and Virginia, he could very well win West Virginia too. I was looking at the electoral history of the state and the last time a Democrat won, he lost WV by 5 points or less. Which is a good showing. I think Obama could more than make that up.
I'd rather see Nevada. If Obama wins Missouri, chances are he's already won enough other states to make 270. Nevada has a chance of being a state that makes the difference, albeit slight if recent trends continue.
the show me state is definitely my first choice as well.
i'd really like to see some more recent polls in west virginia though.
538's regression says the state "should" be blue, and with oh, pa, va, nc all turning bluer by the day, i wouldn't be surprised to see wv as a tossup at least, if not in obama's column.
What state do you think we should vote for?
If my choice is MO or NV, I'll vote for Missouri. It's bigger and I'm more skeptical of the couple of recent pro-Obama results.
But if I get to choose from any of the 50, then I'd prefer WV, which is surrounded by states that seem to be breaking heavily toward Obama, and SC and GA for the same reason (especially SC). Any maybe Montana depending on how many votes I get.
Let's see, there are three new national polls with O+3 and a tracker with O+2.
I guess that means an Obama Landslide.
Nevada and Missouri have had some polling. How about Arizona (now THAT could make some news!), West Virginia, Nebraska 2nd, Mississippi, and a Dakota or two?
Missouri of the two, but definitely West Virginia of all 50 states. Arkansas a close 2nd.
BTW, there is a forum where we discuss 538 and other poltics here:
http://pollwatcher.forumcircle.com/index.php?
Missouri - a state's potential to affect the outcome is a product of it's electoral vote count and how close it is to 50-50. Missouri has more electoral votes AND is closer to 50-50 than Nevada, so hands down it has more potential to affect the outcome. And since the value of information (for predictive purposes) is proportional to its probability of affecting the outcome, information about Missouri voter sentiments is more important than information about Nevada voter sentiment. It's a mathematical certainty.
Is there a way to delete bullsh%t posts? Because PeteKent is a troll who goes around posting untruths.
My vote is for Nevada.
Missouri! please
Well we got Rasmussen and Gallup at +8,+9 Obama.
And we got CBS-Hotline-Zogby-Dem Corps [D] at +3 or less for Obama.
Hence: Very similar to 2000 set up with a few polls having Gore up double digits, then that number falling after the town hall debate when how can we all forget when Gore went in Bush's face to answer the questions.
I want to see more MO. but i also want to see more senate polls. especially GA and MN.
Great job here, guys.
I say Missouri to your question. But I'd like to see a few more WV, ND and MT if people are asking for suggestions. A NE 2nd would be good too.
MO!!!
I want to see the Claire McCaskill effect!
Keep talking about state polls while Obama is imploding, if it cheers you up.
The polls that I mention are the leading edge.
I would love to see more MO polling.
Missouri. Nevada is decided. Another lost state for the McNasty's.
i vote for west virginia
Definitely MISSOURI! Because, well, I'm here and I really believe we can win this.
LOL, you are posting them as a courtesy so that we will be more courteous to you.
I'd like more of Missouri. I think Nevada has a better turn-out projection than the polls indicate. I'd estimate (by pulling a number our of my ass) Obama has a 1.5 point advantage over how he is polling in Nevada.
New Rasmussen poll coming out at 5 showing Obama leading by 14 in PA. It`s probably time for McCain to pull out of every blue state. None of the Kerry states will flip. His only chance and it`s a hail mary is to hold all Bush states less Iowa(he`s dead there).
He is just wasting good mney in any blue state he is advertising in.
In fact why doesn`t he just stay at the ranch until Nov 4th writing his concession speech and he maybe can hang on to a shred of dignity
when this thing is over.
The poll also includes SC, by the way. Not sure why Nate didn't mention that tidbit. But that's the one I voted for, just because with NC trending up so rapidly I'm curious to see if SC is following suit.
The Palin Conundrum: It’s the Baby
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
How very perceptively spotted.
The moment of truth and introspection stuns me with its hopefulness.
A crack is opening up I think in the feminist world. The fissure will be complete when authors like Ms. Turner allow themselves to judge this remarkable woman under the same terms and along the same curve they judge male politicians, not least of which is Barack Obama.
I ignored the 60 senate hope, but thanks to the GOP headliners it looks probable! Thanks "mavriks"...LOL
Late to the game on this one, but I vote Missouri! It's a fascinating state demographically...and if belwethers mean anything, I'd be super-interested to see how it stacks up.
Especially intriguing since I drove through some of the more rural parts last summer (along old Route 66) and I would have guessed much of that area could be considered quite conservative...
Missouri. Nevada seems to be pretty squarely following the national trend-- but Missouri has lagged behind on that a bit. More info on Missouri is definitely more likely to make a difference at this point than Nevada.
missouri!
Missouri
why can't mr. jensen do both?
Michael is full of crap, I checked and the final gallup/cnn poll in 2000 was bush 48 gore 46. He just made up the poll he noted.
Some people can`t face reality!
In addition to Missouri, also on the polling wishlist:
- Nevada
- West Virginia
- More North Carolina
- Montana
- Indiana
- Lousiana
- North Dakota
PeteKent, please just shrivel up and disappear, you windbag.
Never read such a load of horseshit in my life.
I say poll Missouri. Obama seems to be winning Nevada (or it at least seems to be going in his direction). But Missouri, seems very competitive, and is about ready to make its move (like Nevada, etc. did before).
Please poll Missouri.
Dontpanics idea of W Va is good too. That has potential. The struggle between racism and wallet.
Washington, D.C. This is McCain Country.
Missouri... Except for 1956, they have correctly voted for the winner of every U.S. Presidential Election, dating back to 1904.
Not that we need them (Kerry + CO + IA + NM is fine), I think the state would be a good litmus for how moderate "Southern" attitudes are leaning, and may therefore reflect on emerging patterns in states such as North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida.
I'm with hiho...I think (hope) TX is turning blue...I know Austin is, but I'll take MO for now.
I'd really like to see West Virginia, Georgia, Texas, Montana, and Nebraska's Omaha-based district polled, but I would gladly settle for Missouri.
Missouri, although WV and MS would be interesting as well.
Ah, petekent is back--and beating the only drum left to beat (though the nation's long since very grudgingly agreed it disagrees... and this won't move votes).
But this caught my eye:
"Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. "
Odd. Doesn't hold on to the baby, but passes him off to Piper. Now, I've grown -- as a homeschooling parent for the last 16 years -- to seeing a lot of families (some conservative, some not) with various kids who have special needs. But this handing off the special needs baby thing -- all the time -- is a new one. Here, Piper.
Ick.
South Carolina, if we could also get some Senate numbers out of the poll.
Some weird things going on down there.
Between NV and MO, I'd like to see some new MO polls. But...
PPP needs to poll Montana - and do a much better job than Rasmussen by asking about all of the candidates that are on the ballot: Obama, McCain, Paul, and Barr - not just McCain and Obama.
Rasmussen has polled MT three times since it was announced Paul would be on the ballot. Paul beat McCain in the GOP Caucus in Montana, and he is ridiculously popular state-wide. I predict a MT poll including him will show numbers similar to the July MT numbers, not the lousy Rasmussen ones we have been seeing lately.
All these people wanting SC polls make me wonder...have you ever been to SC? It is a very conservative state, with no large metro areas to balance it. Last two polls showed Mc + 19 and +15. It is as red as red can be.
Show-Me Some Poll Love for the Show Me State!
Missouri!
MO!!!
Missouri has voted with the winner for it seems forever. Want to see if the trend continues
Michael:
On the 2000 Gallup Polls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/remembering-gallups-wacky_b_117594.html
Not that there's nothing to worry about. Just sayin.
Looks to me as if the 538 model would benefit more from fresh data in Missouri than in Nevada -- MO is projected as a closer race, with a larger margin of error (8.3% vs 7.9%). This is reflected in the much more uncertain model outcome (56:44 for MO as opposed to 72:28 NV).
MO is also 11 EV, as opposed to NV's 5. All other things being equal, it matters more.
So I vote for sharpening up the picture in Missouri.
McCain only holds a 9% margin in Texas...I don't expect Obama to overcome that, but compared with past margins in Texas, isn't 9% pretty significant of an inroad for the Democrats?
Here's my order of preference for polling. I'm very interested in seeing if there's regional bleed-through for Obama. Especially given that many occured before BOTH debates, and most before the VP debate.
STATE / 538win%(BO)/ LAST POLL
=============================
WV / 33% / 9-24*^
MT / 24% / 9-30^
ND / 21% / 9-17*^
MO / 56% / 10-5
SC / 7% / 9-23*^
MS / 9% / 9-30^
TX / 11% / 9-29^
SD / 12% / 9-20*^
NV / 72% / 10-2
GA / 16% / 9-30^
LA / 11% / 9-25*^
*Prior to P debate 1 on 9-26
^Prior to VP debate 2 on 10-2
Of the two, Missouri appears to be the most competitive. I'd appreciate a better picture of what's going on there
Hey. just a canuck from mtl posting here, I am so addicted to this site, and paying way more attention to this election than the one in my country(its just way more exciting, and honestly more important hehe).
The third option is South Carolina, and I would like to see how that state is shaping up, and I would like to see more polls of the red states, GA, TX, and even Alaska, in order of importance.
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
How very perceptively spotted.
As an AR (USSF Gr. 8) who ran the touchline for six U13-U16 matches last weekend in NOVA, I feel somewhat qualified to speak on the discussions occuring two yards behind me. In order they were:
1) How their kids were playing.
2) The center's calls.
3) That was (not) offside! (No/Yes it wasn't/was.)
4) The economy and how John McCain has no idea what to do about it.
Missouri!
And can we poll to find out what caused Peter Kent to crawl out from under his rock?
Mo' MO
Please poll Missouri. There are more Electoral Votes at play in Missouri vs. Nevada and you Nate already have Nevada at a higher Democratic win percentage vs. Missouri. Thanks for asking!
Of those two, I'd say MS - because the Senate race will be tied to voter turnout and enthusiasm.
At this point I'm starting to fell comfortable with the national polls and the % Obama has above my estimates for fraud and vote supression. I want to see Senate races because it is starting to look like we could have a Democratic supermajority......
I would like to see more polls from Missouri. There is no state that is more "average" or bellwether, so it makes sense to poll there.
Missouri please.
I voted for Missouri. The story in the West is already boring to most people, but if Missouri moves convincingly to Obama the media might get a few good days out of it.
MO
Good luck on the Colbert Report!
Another bad day on the DOW.down 450 with 10 minutes left. Everyday there is a new report or info released showing bad economic news and the market follows the news.
Pete Kent is in tears with this description from a Rupert Murdoch owned London Times report of the post-debate conduct of Sarah Palin (wqhich he previously falsely stated was a liberal newspaper):
"'and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.' Janice Turner, Times of London."
Maybe we should re-name the poor kid Prop. First, the father never holds the kid. Second, an infant should not be exposed to the noise and lights of a national campaign, especially well past his bed time. (Thus his new name, Prop.) Third, and most importantly, a Downs Syndrome infant is a special needs baby in many respects: Such infants usually have heart defects, are more susecptible to infections, and generally need a lot more sleep than baby's without Trisomy 21.
So while Pete Kent is blubbering over Janice Turner's touching article I think something else is afoot. While he is so concerned about abortion he seemes to be not concerned at all about child abuse, at least when its perpetrated by his politicians. I think we call this hypocrisy.
Pete Kent -- Go back to your hole with McCain and spend your time blubbering with him. And your heroine Sarah Palin, child abuser.
The rest of you might be interested in a recent Rolling Stone piece about the real John McCain - womanizer, self-aggrandizer, and one who put his ambition first.
Arizona please;-) (tie?)
I would have to say Nevada....
Ok,ok Missouri has more EV'Ss and is more exciting but I want first of all to be reassured of a road to at least 269 EVs (which almost certainly leads to an Obama presidency).
I grew up in Nevada, Missouri (pronounced Nuh-Vay-Dah).
So these comments are very confusing. Sort of like trying to write a check on your birthday.
I get the feeling West Virginia will have lower turnout than prior years. Both candidates are pretty unpopular there. The economy will have helped Obama a lot there, but I doubt it will be enough to give him a lead. I would guess polling there would look like M-44, O-40, U-16, with the U-16 essentially not voting, giving M the win.
South Carolina
and I live in Columbia, SC and i see some REAL movement here. It will be very close IMO
The people who want to vote on which state gets polled should follow the link in the post. Posting your choice in the comments, sans argument, won't do you any good.
For the rest of us, here's a video of someone who says he plans to vote McCain, but has been lying to pollsters out of shame:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4Rh46_XJdI
PeteKent said...
A Description of Partial Birth Abortion
Barack Obama has stated that his highest priority and first act will be to sign the "Freedom of Choice Act", a bill he co-sponsored, which bill would invalidate virtually all state and federal limitations on pre-birth murder, including this procedure:
Luckily Palin will be the first to support this bill. She was after all prowd of her daughters choice!
For the rest of us, here's a video of someone who says he plans to vote McCain, but has been lying to pollsters out of shame:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4Rh46_XJdI
So ashamed he puts it on youtube for everyone to see?
I want another North Dakota poll. Palin is slowly wearing thin.
I'm with several other folks here - Texas, please! I'm hearing a lot of rumblings that we're far pinker than people believe. Don't leave us out in the cold!
He makes a convincing case. You see, the pollsters ask him "gotcha" questions, thus shouting him down.
PeterKent,
Bush has had a majority on the Supreme Court for years. If he stands so firmly with you on abortion, why haven't he and those who share his supposedly pro-life views tried to overturn Roe v. Wade? They managed to get a case before the court that effectively gutted gun control. Why was that more important to them than saving all those lives? They don't want to overturn Roe v. Wade once that's done they won't be able to keep lying to you to get your vote. For eight years, the Republicans in power have done nothing to lower the abortion rate or make the procedure illegal. Why don't you hold that against them? What evidence makes you think McCain will behave any differenly? Why do they all seem to like guns more than they like babies?
Missouri, but I'd like to see some data out for the Pacific to ensure that we're winning out here.
"and I live in Columbia, SC and i see some REAL movement here. It will be very close IMO"
It will almost certainly be closer than it is in most years...but I can't see Obama winning SC. Even cracking 40% would be a big step in SC.
Several states are neglected, and there might be some surprising competition: WV, TX, SC, ND, MT, MS, LA, GA, AK.
Strangeite- It's a little dangerous to poll the bears, and they don't have phones so you can't avoid the door-to-door polling.
There's just a shocking disconnect between how partisan republicans think that Sarah Palin is regarded by the nonpartisan general public (independents, moderates, Hillary dems), and how she's actually regarded. They just can't understand why McCain's stock isn't soaring after her debate performance.
i gotta say, these Palin rallies are beginning to scare me with how unbelievably lynch mob they are getting, people yelling racial slurs and "kill him"
I can't believe they are condoning this behavior
so utterly despicable
In response to the GOP "Make A Wish" polling history buffs:
2004 Tracking polls @10/7/2004:
ABC: Bush 49 Kerry 47 (Bush+2)
AP: B50 K46 (Bush+4)
Marist: B47 K46 (Bush+1)
Rusmussen: B48 K47 (Bush+1)
Zogby: B46 K44 (Bush+2)
ICR: B51 K44 (Bush+7)
ARG: B46 K47 (Kerry+1)
Fox News: B47 K45 (Bush+2)
On this date, the candidates were trending within the MoE, although Rasumussen showed Bush pulling away from Kerry.
So keep on believing that history is somehow on your side....even when it ain't.
Sourcehttp://www.pstrategies.com/publications/20041008_psi.pdf
Missouri.
Nate's model is too optimistic.
I can't see Obama winning IN or NC and I'm still doubtful about OH or FL.
That must be about 50 EVs in total
Missouri
Nick5
Pretty simple, money. Roe and abortion are the cash cow of the right... and the hook for a huge portion of people voting against their self-interest. They will never turn it over, they will nibble, put up bills that are poisoned, posture like the hypocrites they are. But abolish? Naw, won't happen.
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition
Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
not as exciting as the other oen showing a +7 lead, but it's clear Obama is definitely ahead
Nate's model is too optimistic.
I can't see Obama winning IN or NC and I'm still doubtful about OH or FL.
That must be about 50 EVs in total
It's 74 EVs.
NC, OH, and FL have polling leads for BHO. That's not the model being optimistic; it's the data being optimistic. You might have a point with IN, but he's within the MsoE of the polls coming out.
Republicans will condone any behavior that increases political fervor. Whether it's needling McCain as an illegitimate father back in 2000, or Kerry as a traitorous liar in '04 doesn't matter. Obama being a minority elicits racist and other despicable behaviors, and the GOP, rather than taking the high road and calling for an end to such attacks, condones the behavior and tries to run with it. When will they win an election on actual policy?
Nate, I'd really like to see a pollster to Nebraska in a way that lets you break out the CD's -- i.e., with disproportionate sampling so that there are ca. 400-500 per CD (adjusted by weights for composite summary).
Same for Maine.
Though if the choice were the two states mentioned, I'd prefer MO.
We need to have a poll of West Virginia.
@markedman
"i gotta say, these Palin rallies are beginning to scare me with how unbelievably lynch mob they are getting, people yelling racial slurs and "kill him"
These are the only people left who still support Palin....racists and lynchers
Well to avoid being as tangential as mnay of the earlier post, my choices are NV or MO, right?
Ok I pick MO, the movement of MO drvies the national discussion much more than NV. I want them both blue, but taking MO from McClank will rip his soul out and it will be in the news cycle.
I'm going to buck the trend and say NEVADA. They both have CNN and Rasmussen there, but Missouri also seems to have SurveyUSA and Research 2000 working there right now. Nevada has ARG and Suffolk U., whom I don't have the same faith in.
Becky Sharp said...
"Nate's model is too optimistic.
I can't see Obama winning IN or NC and I'm still doubtful about OH or FL.
That must be about 50 EVs in total"
You can't see it because of your extensive polling of the state and your unparalleled knowledge of the electorate in those states? Or simply because you like to express doubts no matter what the evidence in front of you looks like. You are more tiresome than the conservatrolls.
>>NC, OH, and FL have polling leads for BHO. That's not the model being optimistic; it's the data being optimistic. You might have a point with IN, but he's within the MsoE of the polls coming out.
On 538, NC's polling average is M +2
In a choice between Nevada and Missouri, I vote for Missouri.
MO has more electoral votes.
Nate's model has it closer.
It seems like there's some recent polling of the Silver State.
And MO is closer to my home state (IL), although I have dear friends in Nevada.
i gotta say, these Palin rallies are beginning to scare me with how unbelievably lynch mob they are getting, people yelling racial slurs and "kill him"
I can't believe they are condoning this behavior
so utterly despicable
Agreed. Unfortunately it appears to have an impact...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1070975/Man-shot-times-street-racist-gunman--wearing-Barack-Obama-T-shirt.html?ITO=1490
Well done McShame!
I'd like to see more polls from Nevada and Indiana.
As a California resident another CA Field Poll would be nice too.
Republican trolls on Huffington and complete kooks on this site. Is there a full moon or something? In regards to partial birth abortion: There has not been 1 case not even 1 actual documented case of a Licensed (that's the KEY word) Licensed physician performing a partial birth abortion. One quack of a now prosecuted "Dr." in Florida is now serving time. That's it. Instead of spouting off smear about Obama get your facts straight. It's amazing how much time you neocons spend sensationalizing abortion and no time or posts are ever on adoption. Back to the real world and polling. If you want to post your views go to dailykos. Stick to polls. I know math is hard. Missouri Please!
I would pick MO. There isn't a Senate race in either state, so I think MO based upon the fact that it certainly is a bell weather for an Obama landslide.
Why is anyone surprised that GOP assholes here would lie and distort polls? Look at their candidate.
He put out an ad chopping a sentence Obama spoke in half in order to convey the opposite of what he meant, then called Obama "dishonorable".
These people are scum-sucking shit-piles. There is nothing beneath them.
Missouri. Just got that NV result and we need know if we need mo' "mo" in MO.
>>Or simply because you like to express doubts no matter what the evidence in front of you looks like. You are more tiresome than the conservatrolls.
Jeez - just expressing doubts based on actual polling numbers. No need to jump down my throat!
"On 538, NC's polling average is M +2"
For the 6 polls released in the past week (those in yellow), Obama won 5 and the average lead is O+2, which BEATS Nate's Trend-adjusted O+1.5. Nate is correctly trend-adjusting that old +20 result of McCain's from his convention bounce.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4Rh46_XJdI
Rickrolled!!! Argh...
Missouri.
Becky Sharp said...
"Jeez - just expressing doubts based on actual polling numbers. No need to jump down my throat!"
Just annoyed w/ all the concern trolls around here. If you have reason to doubt Nate's model or the accuracy of the polling numbers go ahead and express those, but blanket concern posts are annoying.
Missouri. Definitely.
PeteKent : so what's the Republican Party's plan to help all these mothers that are FORCED to give birth to an unwanted child?
Your statement or 'facts' are actually false and the reality is, when funding for sex education and birth control the unwanted pregnancies decline and the abortion rate declines as well (it was down 8% during Clinton's administration).
In regards to the polling I want to see:
Missouri
Thanks for all the hard work, love the site.
Missouri
>>NC, OH, and FL have polling leads for BHO. That's not the model being optimistic; it's the data being optimistic. You might have a point with IN, but he's within the MsoE of the polls coming out.
On 538, NC's polling average is M +2.
Only because of the "long tail" of low-weighted McCain-leading polls plus the M+20 and M+17 polls with heavy weights. Look at the more recent polling.
McCain pulled out of Minnesota. No ads there for almost a week. hee hee hee.
Get the hell out of Dem land McCain. As someone else said go back to one of your 7 porches and sit in a rocker and practice a short concession speech.
CO: Insdier advantage
Obama 51
McCain 45
gotta have the big MO
If Obama takes more votes than Kerry in St Louis and Kansas City and a few more votes in the rural areas of the states, he can win MO.
otf
link?
excellent new Colorado poll numbers!
excellent new Colorado poll numbers!
CNN has moved VA and FL to Obama on their map...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/
WOW!!!!
Survey USA Wisconsin Obama up 10 points 52 to 42.
oh and the DOW is down 500 points
dario,
CO Poll
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Colorado_100708.pdf
The Hidden Vote
I suspect we will see some curious results come election night with the pollsters and pundits being confounded by an electorate that resented being talked down to and browbeaten into supporting Obama.
While voters may have gotten used to voting for non-racially divisive black candidates in their local elections, the same cannot be said about the present election. Obama remains a singular novelty and a Rubicon that we must eventually cross. Hopefully we will do so captained one day by a black Republican! But this year we have been given the improbable candidacy of Barack Hussein Obama to consider. His thin resume. His radical associations. His hazy background. His left wing agenda. His militant wife about whom rumors persist. For many there are grave doubts.
But these doubts have been shouted down, driven underground in a calculated effort by the Obama campaign to brand all opposition to him as "racist". Intimidation tactics such as this are not calculated to win support, but to suppress its manifestation. Therein lies the rub for Obama. His strategy has not won him many votes, but rather has simply made the calculus of the election more difficult to perceive.
With Palin too we see a similar circumstance. The Democrats together with their media allies have done a good, if incomplete job, of trying to marginalize her as some sort of doltish idiot who cannot answer the simplest questions put to her. However, she might have been mishandled or found herself spooked in a couple of encounters with overtly hostile journalists, Palin acquitted herself extraordinarily well in her debate with Biden and her performance ranks among the greatest communication efforts we have seen in modern political history. Yet, according to the polls, she lost the debate.
She “lost” by margins that far outstrip the margins Obama has racked up in the polls. It seems to me that many among those who were impressed by her performance had been scared off from saying so by the demonization of her skills by not only Obama and the media, but also the entertainment industry, to the extent that they felt unsure that they could express their confidence in her and chose not to reveal themselves as so out of touch with apparent popular understanding, even if in their heart of hearts they root for her.
Here is how a feminist, liberal columnist for the Times of London saw matters:
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
There is something ineffably moving in those words. I cannot place it, but I feel it as does the author. Some things defy reason and ultimately we must go with our gut instinct.
Yes, my friends, there is a hidden vote out there, it is prepared to turn itself upon Obama and say “no” and to turn to Palin and say “yes”. This may yet tell the tale of the tape on November 4.
Alaska! The polls are way out of date. I want to see what effect Troopergate is having on McCain/Palin. The vocal support is much more Obama/Biden than McCain/Palin.
But since that wasn't an option then I'd go with Missouri. :)
"Unless McCain comes out with a coherent plan for the economy, I don't think which state gets polled next is likely to matter (I vote MO, BTW, since I want confirmation that it really has swung to Obama). If Obama can hang on to a lead of 4 or more points, the state polls stop mattering. I do think the sudden change in FL must be a real concern for McCain since he had been leading the state so consistently and now we have multiple polls with Obama up from low- to high-single digits."
Remember all the Republican idiots here laughing when Plouffe said he was going after Florida, cheering him on because he was going to 'waste' so much money on a state that would 'never' turn blue?
Reno Gazette NV:
Obama 50
McCain 43
See RCP poll averages.
"Yes, my friends, there is a hidden vote out there"
There are no hidden votes. You're just having trouble seeing things because your head is wedged so far up your own ass.
Please, more Nevada polling - selfishly, some of us in California need to know whether we should drive to Reno to get out the vote, or whether we can call it in. If it stays tight there, I'm afraid I'll have to enlarge my carbon footprint.
Thats easy Missouri, 11 vs. 5 ECVs
Why announce you are getting out of Michigan? To cover the fact that you are getting out of a whole range of swing states?
Missouri would be a fascnating poll. Would point to serious trouble in McCainland if Missou is slipping out of his column. (As if they aren't in serious trouble already!)
PeteKent=pathetic astroturfer
seems like the conservatives are taking their cues from palin, when you don't know what to say, just repeat what you are told to.
@hurn0003
>>If you have reason to doubt Nate's model or the accuracy of the polling numbers go ahead and express those, but blanket concern posts are annoying.
I'd argue that unquestioning adherence to this or any other model is worse.
Mind you I'm pretty orgasmic about the latest Colorado numbers!!
Charles Hussein Kozierok said...
"There are no hidden votes. You're just having trouble seeing things because your head is wedged so far up your own ass."
Knowing what we do about conservatives, it isn't out of the realm of possibility he DOES in fact have a hidden voter or two up there.
RCP no toss ups state 364-174 up from 353-185 after missouri went blue!
Peteie-
I told you already: Jacice Turner has no idea what American parents on American touchlines in swing states are talking about.
Missouri for sure, especially since Insider Advantage just came out with another NV poll (Obama +2). But I'm wondering why there's a poll listed in this post from 8/17... is that a typo?
Missouri, please. It's my home state, so I'm biased (and underrepresented, as one of those 20-somethings without a land-line).
Mason,
I live in Florida at the western end of the famed I-4 corridor of "swing" voters. Trust me there is something afoot in the Sunshine State and it's NOT McCain support. I live in a very conservative, affluent neighborhood and I'm shocked to see so many Obama signs popping up. In addition a young (28 years old) lady hit my doorbell canvassing for Obama. Of course I chatted her up and told her how much I appreciated her efforts and when I asked if she was getting static in what would normally pass for a Republican neighborhood, she told me absolutely not...people were largely for Obama.
Just some anecdotal evidence to go along with Nate's EXCELLENT empirical evidence.
And "overtly hostile" journos?
The only thing overt about Katie Couric was that she was trying not to laugh.
http://election-projection.net/
Probability of Win:
McCain 1.5% 200.0
Obama 98.4% 338.0
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.... :-(
jeff said...
"pronounced Nuh-Vay-Dah"
Egad, that's how they pronounce it in Missouri? That's a new one to me.
The pronunciation of Nevada has always been a pet peeve of mine. Everyone gets the first and third syllables right, it's the dreaded first "a" that screws up even many of the national news commentators.
Having lived in Nevada for 8 years... the correct way to say the first "a" is the same way you say add, or attack, or Alex.
You do not say that first "a" like auto, or all, or "open up and say 'ahhh'". The people that pronounce the word that way almost sound British, and unless you are in the Excalibur in Vegas, there shouldn't be that many people saying Nevada with a British accent.
That being said, I'd like to see Missouri polls. :)
Nevada
Blitzer on right now and they did not move VA and FL to Obama yet but moved all the others as they stand on the map....odd....may be dragging it out in the telecast
Becky Sharp said...
"I'd argue that unquestioning adherence to this or any other model is worse.
Mind you I'm pretty orgasmic about the latest Colorado numbers!!"
Well no doubt that is true. But then again my expertise would be more w/ research methodology and a complex model like PECOTA or this, so I am not in an position to criticize Nate's work. But that being said, I feel more confident than Nate's model. McCain's options are limited at this point and it seems that his Hail Mary is more likely to be intercepted and run for a touchdown than anything.
McCain's mistake on going negative at this point is so obvious I can't believe he did it.
1) He is rehashing so it won't get good coverage so he is speaking only to his base.
2) It hurts his own brand, he claims he can reach across the aisle and now is engaging in vial partisanship he claimed to be above.
3) He has many skeletons in his closet and they HAVE NOT been discussed this election, so negative is going to hit him much harder.
4) The political climate isn't right for these attacks. This is exacerbated by the fact that Obama's negative attack on McCain (Keating 5) is actually germane to the political discussion at present.
fu** Wolf
It strikes me that as an Obama victory appears inevitable, Bob Barr's numbers should increase since dissatisfied McCain voters would feel more free to vote their conscience. Didn't this happen with Carter voters moving to Anderson thus enabling an expected close race to become a landslide?
Go for the Gold--Utah
Mark, you´re a swing voter now.
Pay attention.
Robert-
Oh, I agree. I think the model is pretty good. Might you have misread my post as doubting it? When I use italics, those are usually not my words, as they are words to which I am responding.
""pronounced Nuh-Vay-Dah"
Egad, that's how they pronounce it in Missouri? That's a new one to me."
Missouri has numerous pronounciation quirks, including an inability to come up with a consistent way to say the state's name, Missour-ee or Missour-ah. But my favorite is Versailles (pron Ver-sales).
"She “lost” by margins that far outstrip the margins Obama has racked up in the polls. It seems to me that many among those who were impressed by her performance had been scared off from saying so by the demonization of her skills by not only Obama and the media, but also the entertainment industry, to the extent that they felt unsure that they could express their confidence in her and chose not to reveal themselves as so out of touch with apparent popular understanding, even if in their heart of hearts they root for her."
First, thanks for the spamming - this argument has become much more cogent since the last 2 times you posted it. Second, you should know this site is no place for dishonest math. You're implying that if people were being honest Obama would lead the national polls by at least the margin by which Biden won the debate polls. This is idiotic reasoning and you know it. It's right up there with the Conservapedia entry that says there's less than a 1 in 100 chance that Obama is a Christian because less than 1% of Muslims convert to Christianity. Try harder next time.
Missouri, please.
Their(mcCain/Palin) events today show a ugly turn to the core element. Verbally assaulting the press and hurling racial epithets is a fast way to landslide loss. They are losing control of their destiny.
Missouri - very interesting dynamics there
As a half American one of the things that does slightly amuse me about the old country is its quirky pronunciation of town names. Lima, Ohio for instance being pronounced Lie-ma whereas the capital of Peru is pronounced Lee-ma is a favourite. But I have never quite figured why to some it is Missoura.
I voted for Nevada. In some abstract sense Misouri is mor interesting, but if MO is close enough for the poll to matter the election is over already. I want NV as a check on possible swings back to McCain (I don't think that's going to happen), but I would be far more concerned about that that about MO getting BHO from 354 to 365 EVs.
BTW, it's been so nice here without a significant presence of trolls, but apparently our run of peace and quiet is over. Whoever lectured PeteKent that this site is about Polling and analysis rather than policy positions missed the point. For any place that he drops his trousers and lets go, it's all about PeteKent, first, last and always.
Maybe people don't want to express support for fear of seeming wrong and out of touch. But those same people are not reliable McCain voters. In fact, as the perception of an Obama landslide increases, they are more likely to vote Obama just to fit in. Because for that person it is not enough to appear to conform, that person must, in their heart, know that they conform.
MO because I think it represents how deep into GOP territory Obama will get this election. MO, IN, maybe GA. Those are the most Republican states that we can win in this election.
@hurn003
Hey I agree with almost all of that.
My recent batch of "concern" posts have more to do with my disgust at the MSM for covering McCain/Palin transparent as odious methods as though they may have merit - and maybe that overflowed into questioning Nate's methodology as it applies to certain states.
For example I'm not at all convinced that a rising national poll tide lifts all state's equally - Nate's model does not really account for differences in campaign emphasis - my doubts about Ohio stem from the fact that McCain is pouring huge sums into the state - scientific methods can't really capture that (except to the extent that campaign emphasis is reflected in State polls)
1 - WV (no recent polling and being surrounded by blue)
2 - MO (just had polling recently)
3 - NV (recent polling was lookin good for O)
"His radical associations"
you mean, radical associations like this? she says "keep up the good work and God bless you" to a secessionist group! Sarah Palin obviously hates America and its "damn flag".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eniG9l_7its
Can someone explain why there are "leaks" from campaigns? I've not only read it at this site but at other sites as well, that McCain's campaign has leaks.
Is this simply disgruntled campaign workers? Moles? Is it innocently done, like leaving the office and telling your friends over drinks what you did that day, and the friends leak it? :)
I could imagine it's not good for overall morale of a campaign, either.
hey all - someone already said it, but send all your pleas and good ideas to the link in Nate's post, not Nate. Though you can all ramble all day if you like - I am completely addicted to the crack that is 538.com.
Carry on.
I think thus far the MSM has been much fairer and much more thorough in fact checking claims made by campaigns. I also liked seeing CNN fact check Obama's vid on the Keating 5 and conclude that the claims they make are true.
Hey you guys DO realize I hope that Nate was asking you to click on the PPP link (that he posted with his narrative) and vote there which state you wanted polled next. Do you really think Nate is going to scroll thru all these comments and do a little summary math for PPP? :) I think he has better things to do like go find more blue colors for the pretty math.
if my eyes are right there are 47 states colored in on the ROI index and I think 43 colored in on the tipping points map. Whoa.
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