10.03.2008

VP Debate a Ratings Winner

Gary Holmes at Nielsen writes me with the following:

Nielsen just released the ratings for last night's Biden/Palin debate. This is for the 55 local markets where Nielsen has electronic meters.

* The overall rating was 45.0 -- much higher than the Obama/McCain debate, which had a rating of 31.6
* The Baltimore market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 59.1
* Los Angeles market had the lowest household rating: 34.4.

National ratings for Thursday night’s debate will be available from Nielsen Friday afternoon, and if these numbers hold up, this could be one of the most-watched debates ever.

To see the full list of 55 markets and more historical information on Presidential debates, please visit our blog at:

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=1928

So, based on the preliminary numbers, the ratings for the VP debate exceeded those of last Friday's presidential debate by 42%. Since the Obama-McCain debate drew an audience of about 52 million, that would translate into something like 70-75 million viewers for the VP debate. If it clears the 70 million hurdle once the ratings are finalized, it will become the first debate to do so since Reagan-Carter in 1980. It certainly will blow any other VP debate out of the water; the previous high was 56.7 million for Bush-Ferraro in 1984.

This certianly seems to attest to Sarah Palin's ability to draw a crowd -- even if some of those viewers may have watched in the hopes of seeing a train wreck. But also, it may be evidence that the first presidential debate was significantly hampered by having occurred on a Friday, and having had little promotional blast behind it (since the McCain campaign was threatening to pull out until the last minute). I would expect the final two presidential debates to be somewhere in the 60-80 million viewers range.

125 comments

JK said...

Wow, that's more than the Oscars, but less than the Super Bowl.

Sedi said...

The real question is who benefits from the high ratings and large viewership. Did Palin help McCain because she didn't self-destruct, or did Biden help Obama because he clearly came across as more knowledgeable and qualified? We should know by Monday or Tuesday.

John Nail said...

First!!

Nate - high ratings for this debate will only be good for Obama/Biden...very good...

Best line I have seen on last nite:
"She looks like a Fox News Anchors and sounds like a telemarketer."

Folks are much more attuned now to the seriousness of this election since the Wall Street crisis is hitting their pocketbook fears.

Nothing like money to get folks attention.

Nick said...

I disagree. I think the crowds were almost entirely because of Palin, and I will be very, very surprised if either of these last two debates do even remotely as well as this one.

He said...

Sarah Pallen DESTROYED Joe Bieden last night, and I look forward to voting for Sarah Pallen as president in 2012 and 2016.

This proud Marine will vote for the TWO CONSERVATIVE MAVRICKS: JOHN MCCAIN AND SARAH PALLEN. They support our troops and won't wave the white flag of surender in Iraq and Afganistan.

PUT THE 2 MAVRICKS FROM THE SENATE AND PUT THEM IN THE WHITE HOSE!

MARINE SOLDIERS FOR MCACAIN/PALLEN
mCCAIN/PALLEN 2008
PALLEN/ALAN KEYES 2012
PALLEN/KEYES 2016

Birchbeer said...

Some of that is Thursday v. Friday. Some of it is Palin is easy on the eyes. Some of it is rubber necking to see if she crashed and burned. I think the next two debates will be the two lowest rated, which of course helps the candidate with the lead...

moondancer said...

Small detail about the Baltimore market. It has a very high AA market and a very high ultra conservative section. Baltimore City and most of the near suburbs are among the highest pct AA in the country, but part of their market for some reason is the vertical part of the infamous Pa "T". That the likes of Santorum and McCain rely on.
Both groups likely tuned in.

Fizz Byers said...

Anybody else find the debate kinda boring? Talking heads make me sleepy... http://www.FinerThingsClub.com

Robert said...

I believe a lot of people where curious how she would do. They probably wanted to see if she where as bad as the picture painted my MSM.

While she did better then in the "oh so hard" Couric interview, I doubt she convinced many undecided people she's ready for prime time.

It would surprise me if the Republicans number improve and since Biden did really well it could even help the democrats

Sedi said...

Did we finally determine if He is actually a liberal doing a parody of a conservative fanatic or is actually the most idiotic poster on this site? If the former, then I'll admit that he's (He's?) pretty funny. "PUT THE 2 MAVRICKS FROM THE SENATE AND PUT THEM IN THE WHITE HOSE!" What a great line on so many different levels (if it is a parody). And mis-spelling Palin's name throughout while claiming to like her...it's priceless. Or highly pathetic, if it's not a parody.

Real Joe said...

any more polls coming out today ?

Ryan said...

The reason LA was the lowest is because everybody was watching the Dodger game.

fred said...

She did fine, and alot of folks watched, but Biden stayed on message and hammered home the McBush stuff very effectively. I doubt there is a Palin bounce, even a dead cat one.

Blame said...

It was about their only chance to see what could be the first female president in action without a teliprompter.

I guess they didn't want to buy a pig in a poke.

Or is that a lipsticked pig in a poke?

Leigh said...

I think everyone was tuning in for a freak show

Robert said...

The fact that Biden got 90 minutes of unanswered McCain bashing on a TV event with this many viewers while managing to look (vice-)presidential and knowledgeable can't hurt

Realist said...

Off-topic, but Randall, are you the guy who does xkcd? I’m a big fan.

Dan Warren said...

Given the post-debate opinion polls, my guess is that this is nothing but good news for Obama.

Alex S. said...

So, do we know that most of the audience didn´t just switch channels after 30 minutes?
And I think that the 3rd and 4th debate will draw less people than the 1st debate.

The debates attract even unpolitical people, people who don´t obsessively hunt for every new Palin gaffe, for example. And undecideds already showed that they didn´t care much for Palin´s mistakes anyway. That´s why Biden could convince more undecideds than Palin although she exceeded the media expectations. And I think she pretty much hit the expectations of these casually political people. So the overall effects will be rather small, but pro-Obama (maybe 1-2% nationally).

moondancer said...

Leigh

Yes, like watching NASCAR for the wrecks.

Jeremy said...

sedi, I think your sarcasm detector is broken.

yiannis said...

SUSA polls from MN for age group 35-49:

10/02/08 : 55-39 (M/M+1)
09/11/08 : 48-48 (Tie/O+2)
08/14/08 : 46-44 (M/O+2)
06/17/08 : 52-41 (M/O+1)

Where (leading the specific demographic/leading the overall poll)

SUSA is not polling a very favorable Obama group here, but they have been consistent.

Does anyone know the polls of SUSA from the primary? My guess/hope is that they severely underestimated Obama there too.

Sairen said...

I just think it's great that people are watching and paying attention. It gives me a little more hope for the future of democracy in this country.

BTW, He, I agree with putting them in white hose. Very Shakespearean. I like it.

Christopher said...

If there are more people like my Republican dad who now says that Sarah Palin 'scares him', then I think this was a good night for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

I think her reality show schtick for the VP had a half-life of about two weeks. We should only see it drop off further.

Daniel said...

Robert: My thoughts EXACTLY.

Everybody is so focused on Palin right now. But Biden wasn't: he was taking pot shots at McCain all night long.

The Maverick meme just took a body blow. The health care plan took a beating. Foreign policy got completely swooped up by Biden.

The conservatives and democrats were probably paying close attention to Palin, but that's not the point: the undecided voters sat there, and saw a guy, Biden, dismantle the McCain platform without a single counter-argument from his opponent.

Yitz said...

Sedi - it's impossible to tell whether He is a real fanatic who can't spell or reason, or if He is a parody due to Poe's Law: "Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is impossible to create a parody of Fundamentalism that SOMEONE won't mistake for the real thing."

Real Joe said...

mark said...
Friend of my dad, a labor organizer in MI has this to say

"I smell a Karl Rove-republican dirty trick here.
The ads are still running, but it would take a couple of days to pull.
I haven't checked on his staff yet.
I think either the State R pary will pickup the slack OR the 527's will step in and that gives McCain deneyability when they start slashing. I think we are about to see the vicious and or racist shit start."

???

fred said...

North Caroline
Elon University

Pollster has this poll up as 44-42 for Obama, but the link is only to the economy question.

Did Pollster get it wrong?

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/100308.xhtml

realistxxx said...

Voters tuned in to see Palin make a fool of herself or some other type of fireworks between her and Biden.

They got nothing and were likely disappointed.

The most memorable moment I believe will be Biden challenging her about parenthood and choking up about his tragedy. Palin following with more platitudes about McCain's mavericky maverickness fell with a loud thud.

Aside from that all of the leadup and breathless anticipation comes off as a bunch of hype.

(I am talking about the average voter, not political junkies).

Chi said...

Sairen said, 'I just think it's great that people are watching and paying attention.'

I don't know about the 'paying attention' part. People were watching for entertainment, but a majority was disappointed because expectations for Sarah were so low and she didn't 'deliver'.

Randall said...

Realist: Shhh, this is my political junkie alter-ego.

The real shock is that James Carville secretly draws xkcd.

You know, I don't think I can take any more of the tension of following this campaign so closely. Maybe I should just go into an induced coma for the next month. And the life-support computer can be programmed to watch the election returns, and if they're horrifying, I'll just have it switch the IV over to gin before waking me up, to dull the shock a little.

Cugel said...

It would have been better for the McCain campaign if nobody watched it -- in view of the fact that Biden won according to the polling.

It doesn't look like many minds were changed (according to CBS poll). That's not surprising.

People DON'T vote for the VP! If Palin had turned in another performance like the Couric interview then it might have torched McCain's campaign, but that was always highly unlikely.

Gwen Ifil wasn't going to play "gottcha!" questions with the candidates.

The format allowed both to recite snippets from their campaign stump speeches for 90 seconds or 2 minutes. By now they could probably do it in their sleep!

The few "exchanges" were scripted attack lines Sarah Palin had drilled into her --- and it showed.

Biden got off most of his attack lines on McCain, although he started to sound rushed at the end trying to fit them all in the allotted time.

I don't know why everybody was expecting a train I said before the debate that if Sarah Palin didn't misspell "Potatoe" or "ask for a lifeline" she'd exceed expectations. She did.

She resisted her urge to giggle and sound like an actor from one of those "Gidget Goes Wild" beach movies of the early 60's.

Biden managed to avoid telling us all about the 300 years he's been chairman of the Judiciary Committee.

Both did fine, and few minds were changed. Since McCain went in losing, he came out losing and another day closer to the election.

He's now pinning his hopes on Pennsylvania and Maine, two states where he's down an average of 6%.

It's looking more and more like my prediction will be correct. The debates will change nothing, except that voters will see Obama and say "he doesn't look that inexperienced. I guess it's o.k. to vote for him."

And that will be the election. Unless some major scandal happens between now and the election, McCain's toast!

eatbees said...

I'd be interested to know if anyone has figured out how to include the internet audience in the debate ratings?

It doesn't make sense to me that with all the drama surrounding McCain's campaign "suspension" and the bailout vote, the first McCain-Obama debate would have gained only mediocre viewership.

It does make sense that the novelty of Palin was a big draw, but would it have made that much of a difference? Maybe Palin's hockey mom and Joe Six-Pack fans are more likely to watch on TV?

Charlie said...

Let's face it: A significant portion of that audience was the equivalent of spectator slowing at a car crash. People were looking for blood and bits of skull.

Unfortunately, not only did no one bite the heads off of the two-headed chicken, but the chicken didn't even have two heads. Sarah did a great job with her hidden cue cards, eh?

Robert said...

I think Mark's dad friend has a point... :-(

Nick said...

Anyone who likes infographics should probably check this out, courtesy of the Daily Kos: Word Clouds

Seeing the debate transcript visualized like this is pretty cool. Makes one-dimensional +/- measures seem quite thin by comparison.

Ken said...

HE:
"Sarah Pallen DESTROYED Joe Bieden last night, and I look forward to voting for Sarah Pallen as president in 2012 and 2016.

This proud Marine will vote for the TWO CONSERVATIVE MAVRICKS: JOHN MCCAIN AND SARAH PALLEN. They support our troops and won't wave the white flag of surender in Iraq and Afganistan.

PUT THE 2 MAVRICKS FROM THE SENATE AND PUT THEM IN THE WHITE HOSE!

MARINE SOLDIERS FOR MCACAIN/PALLEN
mCCAIN/PALLEN 2008
PALLEN/ALAN KEYES 2012
PALLEN/KEYES 2016"

1. What debate were you watching? Palin didn't even answer most of the questions. Oh, she said a lot of stuff, but not on topic.

2. It's Palin, McCain, Biden. Unless there's some other election going on.

3. It's also Maverick. And yeah, I heard that word so many times I thought I was watching "Top Gun" again.

4. White flag of surrender? Hmm. I don't know if we have funds for that. I think it was included in the funding for our troops and veterans that McCain voted against...

5. TALKING IN ALL CAPS DOES NOT MAKE YOU RIGHT!!!

Have a nice day :)

Matthew said...

I am obviously very interested in politics, but I like to get my information from reading, rather than from TV or radio.
But I just had to tune in to watch the debate. And I was surprised---Sarah Palin came off even stupider than I thought she would. But she cheated me out of my generational, defining comedy moment.

Tybalt said...

And those numbers don't count those, like me, who tuned in and watched the debate online.

Matthew said...

@Ken:

In honor of our new celebrity, I just have to say:

If you don't think John McCain helped win Vietnam as a marine pilot, why don't you tell him to his face?

Vanessa said...

With ratings like that, does anybody think her performance may have been a game changer?

John said...

Can we do away with the "First!" posts? They're especially pathetic when they don't come until third.

JRoyale said...

He said
Sarah Pallen DESTROYED Joe Bieden last night

If by destroyed, you mean that Palin didn't wet her britches, yeah. Otherwise, Palin managed to read her cue cards ok and look very much the part of the high school cheerleader really needing some additional extracurricular activities to put on her transcript.

And Joe managed to look very VPdential.

Robert said...

Randall:

It's your fault I found this site! I recently found your comic and really love it. Your comic mentioning this site got me interested and now I'm hooked!... Damn you! j/k!

Being in the high-tech field (and from Cambridge/Somerville) I had to buy the "I'm not slacking off..." T-shirt, it has been a hit a work!

RWD said...

HE is obviously a parody. PALLEN/KEYES? no one is that delusional, not even Keyes himself.

PA John said...

"With ratings like that, does anybody think her performance may have been a game changer?"

No, not even close. There is nothing - nothing remotely that indicates that at all.

Gabriel said...

What moondancer said, but also...

a huge reason why LA was the lowest market and Baltimore was the highest had to be the playoffs. Or... if you're an Oriole fan like me... lack thereof.

LA took an early lead on the Cubs, so it would make sense that the LA market would find more interesting things to watch. Cubs fans (sorry Nate) probably became more interested in the debate as the game progressed and changed the channel...

But in Baltimore... yeah, we're not so interested in the playoffs at the moment. Um, go Ravens?

IMHO said...

Why would anyone but the most ideologically-blinded think this debate would hurt the McCain ticket? The hardcore decideds watched the BHO/JSM debate on Friday. The viewers above that mean something, and I can't make pretend it wasn't favorable for Palin.

This is the third time I have been shocked at the number of viewers. With relentless piling-on from the Left, who really thought Palin's acceptance speech and McCain's would outdraw Obama's?

bmr said...

The debate was over 10 minutes in, when it was clear Biden chose to debate McCain's policies versus Palin who chose to debate Biden via rehearsed talking points. The Obama camp recognized the target, whereas getting Palin back up to the surface level of things was a reachable goal Rick Davis & Co. were happy to snag.

Different targets, different debates. They each achieved their goal, I think it's fair to concede each side that much, but Biden had much more to gain from the Democratic strategy than did Palin and the Republican strategy.

Gabriel said...

Sorry, it should read: "so it would make sense that the [Chicago] market would find more interesting things to watch"

Cugel said...

"mark said...
Friend of my dad, a labor organizer in MI has this to say

"I smell a Karl Rove-republican dirty trick here.
The ads are still running, but it would take a couple of days to pull.
I haven't checked on his staff yet.
I think either the State R pary will pickup the slack OR the 527's will step in and that gives McCain deneyability when they start slashing. I think we are about to see the vicious and or racist shit start."


I think you're over-estimating the McCain campaign. They haven't run a particularly great campaign so far and I doubt that a slash and burn racist campaign could make up 6-9% in Michigan the next 4 weeks.

They are reduced to desperately trying to run the gauntlet, and hold onto all the Bush states, including Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada, and Colorado. If they win them all, McCain wins.

McCain's already lost Iowa and New Mexico and New Hampshire is now moving dramatically away from him in the latest Rasmussen polling. If he loses any more states he's done.

It's got to be a full court press defense the rest of the way. Put up as much smoke screen and "original Maverick(tm)" ads as he can, try and plant as much fear of Obama being an "outsider" as possible and hope for a hail-mary in the form of a terrorist attack or something to shake up the election in the last 30 days.

The way things are looking right now, the Republicans will be walking off stage leaving a gigantic garbage dump for the Democrats to clean up. Just like Clinton, Obama will have to struggle with massive deficits and financial turmoil, which will prevent him from enacting his agenda.

Republicans will then accuse him of "doing nothing" when they were responsible for screwing things up so badly that all Obama's efforts needed to be spent just repairing the dikes to prevent us from all being washed away!

We can't just keep electing Republicans every 8 years and let them loot the treasury, then slink out of town leaving a disaster for Democrats to clean up!

Wesley said...

Isn't it a testament to the growing popularity of this site when
A) People are attempting to "Firstie" the comments
B) Comments come in too fast and "Firsties" are failed

Douche Scrotesteen said...

I have to disagree with Nate. Last 2 debates will be lower. We were mainly afraid to miss this debate in case Palin had a Gibson/Couric meltdown. Fortunately (for her), she answered questions the way they do on Main Street.

She is really pretty though. Anyone have a dream that involved putting a sweatsock in a polititians mouth?

Gabriel said...

"This is the third time I have been shocked at the number of viewers. With relentless piling-on from the Left, who really thought Palin's acceptance speech and McCain's would outdraw Obama's?"

Viewers isn't the same as supporters. Palin is an unknown quantity. People were more interested in watching her than Obama because she was brand spanking new to the world, whereas Obama had been talking to the public for a year and a half straight.

And McCain's speech didn't actually overdraw Obama's. If you include PBS's viewership, they were dead even.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/05/republican-national-conve_n_124305.html

THE Bob said...

This is the third time I have been shocked at the number of viewers. With relentless piling-on from the Left, who really thought Palin's acceptance speech and McCain's would outdraw Obama's?

Not really surprising - Republicans only watch their conventions, Democrats and Independents watch both.

PA John said...

My Prediction:

SNL Opens with the debate - Tina Fey of course, Daryl Hammond as Biden, Keenan Thompsom as Gwen Ifell.

Sedi said...

"sedi, I think your sarcasm detector is broken."

Have you ever read a post by jack-be-nimble? Some of these folks are so far outside reality that it's hard to tell. I think Yitz has it right in pointing to Poe's Law and the impossibility of distinguishing between an actual parody and an inadvertent self-parody. On the other hand, He consistently mis-spells Palin even after being corrected, so you're probably right in thinking it is a parody.

brown said...

"Sarah Pallen"

Um. What? Who's Sarah Pallen? White Hose? I feel like I just walked past someone screaming on a street corner.

People, people. First of all, the ratings are likely the result of many people wanting to see if she would embarrass herself on live television. Second of all, those post-debate polls mean something. They dampened the hooray-for-Sarah spin, which was absolutely incessant, given that most conservatives feel that they lost the spin game after the first debate. ("You did a VERY GOOD JOB, Sarah. GOOD for YOU!")

And those polls should reassure Democrats that independents are still breaking their way. Biden won the debate. The numbers prove it. Sarah Palin exceeded her abysmally low expectations. But Biden still won the debate, and a majority of people still think that Palin isn't ready to be president. That's the whole story. Nothing more to see here, except a likely Sarah Palin candidacy in 2012.

Another Mike said...

The debates will change nothing, except that voters will see Obama and say "he doesn't look that inexperienced. I guess it's o.k. to vote for him."
---------------------

I think you basically nailed it. I might add that Biden gave a great performance and really looked informed, reasonable, and presidential, especially in comparison to Palin. To the extent that an undecided voter is worried about Obama's inexperience or "otherness," I would think Biden's performance only helped quell those concerns.

RWD said...

"This is the third time I have been shocked at the number of viewers."

That's because Palin is a big celebrity. Sort of like Paris Hilton or Brittney Spears. People want to watch them on tv to see if they do something outrageous, but they don't want them to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

Vern said...

Palin is evidence that no matter who wins in politics right now, only half the country will EVER be with them. To me, Palin is so clearly and unquestioningly BY FAR what the country needs that I find it hard to even grasp that actual real living people don't.

I don't want to imply civil war, but I have to think maybe we just go the path of a amicable divorce at this point - we just cite "irreconcilable differences" and stop all the arguing. You all can have the coasts or the cities and we'll take the center areas. I'll even have to move but that's OK by me. Sound fair?

TBender said...

Wait, I thought Obama was the celebrity candidate?

:)

RWD said...

@Vern

LOL, this year it's the right wingers who want to move b/c the election isn't going their way. Canada and every other developed nation will probably be too liberal for you though. Maybe Colombia?

Sedi said...

"Why would anyone but the most ideologically-blinded think this debate would hurt the McCain ticket?"

Because the available evidence (2 polls) suggests that most viewers -- including most independents -- thought that Biden won the debate. If lots of people tune it and think that Biden was better, then it stands to reason that Obama might be helped by the performance. Seems pretty logical, no?

TBender said...

We should go to states' rights only. Then we could really have red states and blue states.

PA John said...

FWIW, the debate is ALREADY yesterday's news. The bailout bill passage has already replaced it in the news cycle as the top story going into the weekend, and we're already talking about the next debate.

IMHO said...

Gabriel -

People tune in when they want to see something. People stay tuned in when they like it. There is no reason to watch a Republican acceptance speech in hopes you hate the person more.

There could be a silent group of voters who don't fit any of the current poll over-weighting assumptions (Dem, young, non-cell, AA) right now that would lead to results that make pollsters hang their head.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

So, Palin is the celebrity now?

Maybe she deserves her own celebrity ad, with images of Snoop Dog and Dennis Rodman flashing by.

RWD said...

Just checked the 401k account today.

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 10/02/2008 is -26.5%

Uhhh....thank god the bailout passed.

Tim R said...

I thought the debate was rather boring, Biden was stiff and somber and Palin was cartoonish at times with the over the top mugging for the cameras.

Biden clearly had the superior knowledge and won outright on the issues, Palin didn't answer any questions.

Makes one wonder how long it will be before Palin throws McCain under the bus to set herself up for 2012..........

realistxxx said...

Vern said...
Palin is evidence that no matter who wins in politics right now, only half the country will EVER be with them. To me, Palin is so clearly and unquestioningly BY FAR what the country needs that I find it hard to even grasp that actual real living people don't.

I don't want to imply civil war, but I have to think maybe we just go the path of a amicable divorce at this point - we just cite "irreconcilable differences" and stop all the arguing. You all can have the coasts or the cities and we'll take the center areas. I'll even have to move but that's OK by me. Sound fair?

------------

Two weeks ago the desperation of Republicans was palpable. Now it's their depression and hopelessness.

Vern, counselling from a priest, minister or professional is advised in your case.

PA John said...

"Canada and every other developed nation will probably be too liberal for you though. Maybe Colombia?"

Lot's of empty land in ALASKA!!

RWD said...

"Maybe she deserves her own celebrity ad, with images of Snoop Dog and Dennis Rodman flashing by."

Someone should do this on youtube...the actual Obama campaign has no business even acknowleding her, but it would be funny to see.

Tyrone said...

It's no surprise that McCain/Palin had a huge lead in the 35-49 age group in Minnesota, that is the age group hockey moms are in.

TBender said...

"Canada and every other developed nation will probably be too liberal for you though. Maybe Colombia?"

Lot's of empty land in ALASKA!!


Good thing Palin took care of the wolf problem.

Shawn said...

Intrade says the VP debate was a boon to . . . . Obama.

Obama - 69.4 +4.4
McCain - 30.8 -3.6

Hahahahahaha!

Becky Sharp said...

Wake me up when Palin's 15 minutes are over. *Yawn*

clarkejeffrey said...

Nate,

I agree with you the vast majority of the time. This time, you're wrong.

I expect significantly less than 60m viewers for the next debate.

The presidential debate numbers were actually pretty high. The VP numbers were extraordinary because there was real drama (would Palin screw up or not). The first pres debate had a good deal of drama. Would McCain show up? How would they deal with the prior 48 hours, etc. etc.

People are really expecting a sequel on Tuesday. They know that it will be basically the same talking points rehashed again. Sequels rarely outperform originals. I'd expect that roughly 85% of the viewers from the first pres debate will tune in. They might gain a little more because its Tues not Fri, but the most it will do is equal it. There is simply no real drama this time around.

realistxxx said...

Shawn said...
Intrade says the VP debate was a boon to . . . . Obama.

Obama - 69.4 +4.4
McCain - 30.8 -3.6

Hahahahahaha!

-----------

Intrade lags behind 538.com. Obama is still undervalued and shorting McCain sounds like a good bet too.

MATT J. H. said...

Its a sad state where the country is more interested in liking a person than them having a clue about policy. We just had a clown for President and look how that turned out. Palin is a farce.

I really, really like her. But she doesn't have a CLUE. Pat Buchanan and other conservatives were orgasmic with there glee.

WHAT THE F#@K.

What is wrong with this country.

fred said...

Looks like Bristol and Levi are planning a summer wedding, no October surprise there. I mean, who wants to marry a pregnant girl anyway?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/levi-johnston-and-bristol_n_131565.html

Matthew said...

So the question is, is the news of this even going to show up in the polls, or is it going to be smeared out by

A) McCain regaining some after the acute phase of the financial crisis passed

&

B) The passing of the bailout.

Cubs/Obama2008 said...

Day of the week is a key driver, plus the financial crisis has gotten everyone focused on the race. But Palin no doubt pulls in younger women...something missed with McCain/Obama

fred said...

Pat Buchanan was pretty funny over Palin at the debate. She sucked and he though she was wonderful.

Devon said...

You don't call McCain's almost-pullout promotional for the debate? I think it was very promotional. I also read somewhere that before the VP debate, a McCain aide leaked that Palin was "clueless" in her debate practices. Nobody just leaks stuff like that. I think it was an obvious strategy for the McCain camp to encourage MSM's low expectations of Palin, maybe even making them as low as can be since the camp had no idea how she would actually fare against Biden. She doesn't hold onto facts, but she's competitive. And she's been out of the loop of national politics, that's why she doesn't know anything. But you put her at that podium and tell her to talk about McCain's record, her own positions, and about Main St America, and she'll do fine. And she did with that. She's no Biden.

realistxxx said...

Matthew said...
So the question is, is the news of this even going to show up in the polls, or is it going to be smeared out by

A) McCain regaining some after the acute phase of the financial crisis passed

&

B) The passing of the bailout.

-----------

I don't see how the crisis being averted helps McCain and he voted for the bailout so there is no daylight between him and Obama on this contentious issue.

The economy still sucks for most Americans and, unfortunately, will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

Sedi said...

Vern,
I half agree with your first sentence. To the people that I know, Biden was self-evidently superior to Palin, and not by a little bit. Although I believe that I am pretty smart and far more knowledgeable than the vast majority of Americans, I want a POTUS and a VP who are smarter and more knowledgeable than me. I want to elect my betters, not some ordinary citizen. The world is full of difficult, complicated problems that require deep thought and vast knowledge. Palin seems obviously deficient on both counts, at least as of now. Palin is almost a carbon copy of Bush, and we've all seen how his presidency fared.

But what I like about Obama is that he doesn't denigrate the right and doesn't simply cater to people like me. Although he is unquestionably a liberal, Obama focuses often on what unites us, not what divides us. Bush said that he would do this, but I never saw any evidence of it. Obama has a pragmatist, non-polarizing personality. While I don't expect that you will ever like him, I'm hoping that you can come to respect him if he becomes president.

We've already entertained the prospect of going our own ways as a result of irreconcilable differences, and it led to the bloodiest period in our nation's history. Despite living in one of the most conservative parts of VA, I have far more in common with my neighbors than I have serious differences. Politics isn't everything, though we sometimes lose sight of that fact here.

joel said...

People were watching hoping for a car wreck. I was hoping she would look like a total idiot but she recited her memorized talking points very well.
I don`t think it will help McCain at all except with the base. I was impressed with biden and he outdebated her by a mile.
I wouldn`t expect any movement in the polls. The debate tuesday may be interesting, McCain is desperate, who knows what he`ll do, probably have some plants there to bring up rev Wright and the slime.
Obama may be able to get McCain to lose it, he knows this young guy 25 years his jr is kicking his ass and he won`t get to be president, a right he believes is his.

PorridgeGun said...

With the obvious exception of Drudge and the FOX Propaganda Network, Biden was overwhelmingly declared the winner across the board. Obama/McCain wasn't so clear cut, at least until independents and undecideds broke for Obama in a huge way. But even I thought Biden wiped the floor with Palin, on policy, substance and style. Biden also had arguably the two greatest moments of the debates so far. So, I guess having a shitload of people watching Biden win the debate is a pretty good thing. How could it not be?


Palin had a couple of HORROR moments where she took a nose-dive:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/nielsen-biden-scores-big_n_131481.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC1W1_sTgFE




A couple of booby traps Biden set for Palin

http://samsedershow.com/node/3887

esmith said...

Lots of people watched to see a funny moment I think. But eventually the effectiveness of the debate will depend on whether the undecideds who watched the debate are still undecided because they are very cynical or because they usually even have hard time deciding between doritos and cheetos.

I tend to think they are more cynical.

Andrew said...

He, Who is this "Pallen"you speak of? some dark horse candidate? :p

PorridgeGun said...

What's the story with Battleground changing Obama's national lead from +7 to +3? Did they honestly think nobody would notice?

Ira said...

I admit I didn't watch the debate. I have my own country to worry about right now, and the Canadian election debate was held at the same time as the US VP debate.

I did suspect fewwer Canadians watched their own debate in order to watch Biden-Palin, though. That will be an interesting thing to see reflected in polls up here.

Mason said...

I mean, who wants to marry a pregnant girl anyway?

Aww... But they're so pretty when they're preggers. All puffy and round, with big....

Pardon me. Giggity.

Sedi said...

"What's the story with Battleground changing Obama's national lead from +7 to +3? Did they honestly think nobody would notice?"

PorridgeGun,
Apparently the first set of numbers was a mistake. Pollster carried a press release that noted the error, though it didn't give any further explanation. I'm sure it's nothing sinister, but it's rather sloppy. I always lose a little respect for and confidence in pollsters who don't get all of the little details correct. Sloppy write-ups to me imply slopping polling.

bigdayqueen said...

Based on the responses from my 84 year old dad and his 80 year old sister...Biden "won" the debate. Right now they are really worried about what is going to happen to their life savings and what they will be able to pass on to their kids. They have me look up their accounts every day to make sure the money is steill there. They are frightened!

Biden was serious, but not alarming and made them feel "safer". Whereas, Palin was inconsistent, and all those golly gee type comments and winks made them think she was only reading lines, like a TV news anchor.

And best of all, they both said they would both vote for ME before they would vote for Palin. Gotta love them both!

supermom said...

And they didn't even count the many ex-pats here in Jerusalem, who have woken up at 4 a.m. for both debates, as well as our friends in Germany, who woke up at 3 a.m. their time, to watch both debates live. Guys, the future of civilization is at stake here! This is important!

Astanphaeus said...

I predict the second presidential debate will achieve higher ratings than the first, but they'll be lower than the ratings for the VP debate.

Jerry056 said...

Stocks starting to tumble. -120 points now. A 400 point drop AFTER the Bailout was passed. Now you know why I will never play the stock market! :)

Jen said...

I get it now. "He" is pulling all of our legs.

JRS said...

Vern,

You are going to have more limited options than you think for a diaspora after this election is lost to you. My reading of the electoral map shows both coasts AND much of the central regions dark blue. You hard core Republicans will have to flee to the deep South, straw belt or mountain West.

You might consider creating a "Free Market Republic" on a rural mountaintop a la Ayn Rand or a plantation scheme in Dixie. Or, you can await the "Second Coming" in the northern refuge of Alaska.

Allison said...

This L.A. resident was stuck in rush hour traffic for most of the debate and watched it on DVR when she got home. It started at 6 p.m. on the West Coast! I bet pretty much all of the media markets in the Pacific time zone were at the bottom in terms of ratings.

Allison said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Voice of the Midwest said...

"I really, really like her. But she doesn't have a CLUE. Pat Buchanan and other conservatives were orgasmic with there glee."

There is a theory in the underground out there that the GOP cares so little about the concept of government that they are willing to kill it by making sure it will not work - at all. So, you reduce your bench to religious zealots who are "likable" more than qualified.

They serve for perfect cover as the Dick Cheneys of the party raid the coffers and pillage the tax code to benefit the very wealthy only.

Throw in a war to drain money to the base and if a crisis comes up, fail and say to the people "Look, you see? Government does not work...and we proved it!"

Once out of power, the modern GOP becomes the second guessing, Monday Morning QB Party. They complain and attack, anger the people with red herrings, then get the power back.

Read Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" and Thomas Frank's "The Wrecking Crew". Very prescient reading and it nails down the MO of the above theory.

don't panic said...

read in some blog coment

"McCain is so cheap, that just in order to save an M he picked the moron instead of the mormon"

her last "interview" on fox in which she attack Courie for her sneaky questions (!!!) seem to confirm the idea

Another Mike said...

New Rasmussen poll in Nevada:

Obama 51 (46)
McCain 47 (49)

The good polling continues!

don't panic said...

very good.
380 here we come!

brown said...

"the path of a amicable divorce at this point"

Okay, far be it from me to comfort a Republican. But dude. Let's not exaggerate, okay?

I know you don't want to hear this, but Obama is probably going to win this election by a pretty sizable margin. Having said that, we, the Democrats, lived through eight years of George W. Bush and twelve years of a Republican Congress. We looked at our country, and we didn't recognize it anymore. Remember Jesusland? But the system abides. The pendulum swings, winds change, and the sun also rises. Kumbaya. Now suck it up.

capt said...

The ratings reveal a prurient interest in Palin's abject failure as a candidate.

Think about a real bad car accident - people look but they don't want to be IN the accident.

The next two debates will not garner such a large audience because Obama and McCain aren't the sideshow.

The "main event" is already resolved and far less interesting.

markymark said...

My day after vew remains the same. To me Palin still looks like a talent show contestant. In some ways she comes across quite well, especially to non seasoned watchers, but to my an experienced eye, (Well at least to mine) she looks like a phoney. I think the format suited her precisely because she didn't have to move outside of her comfort zone.

Paul said...

The Los Angeles ratings were low due to the Dodgers - Cubs game I suspect.

Today at work everyone was talking about the Dodgers, but only some people were also talking about the debate.

Doctor Pion said...

I don't have any statistics, just an anecdote. Usually the students waiting in the hallway for the next class are quietly talking or texting, loitering as they wait for us to clear the room. Today they were having a loud debate with many different participants.

It will be interesting to see the demographics of the audience for this debate. I suspect the comedic promotion brought out a much younger audience, many of them first time voters.

guyinthehat said...

Of the top ten cities in the Nielsen rating for last night's debate, 7 were in swing states: St. Louis, Hampton Roads, VA, West Palm Beach, Kansas City, Richmond, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. All of which registered over 50% of households. It would be interesting to see how places hit hard by the economy like Pitt and Detroit responded to Joe Biden last night. This debate will also have quite an impact in Virginia, which had 2 markets in the top ten.

FreeThinker said...

There's no doubt that Palin is a media star. She gushes self confidence and self assurance while saying really inane things... like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton?

Josh said...

I think the idea that Palin did well last night is laughable. If anyone thinks that, it's only evidence of how ridiculously low the expectations were for her. Biden blew her out of the water. He hammered McCain and he sold Obama's message very well. I think the CBS poll that showed only a 1% drop (54% to 53%) in the amount of people who DONT think she's qualified to be President is proof that the debate didn't help her nearly as much as people are saying it did. I thought she sounded like a rehearsed robot spouting off nonsensical answers (not even close to answering the questions at hand) word for word off of her note cards.

Plus what was up with the three times she WINKED at the camera? Jesus Christ. These are serious times and she is NOT a serious candidate.

jwhit said...

I think folks wanted to see what Tina Fey would be doing on SNL this week, not what planet Palin lives on. It was purely for entertainment value, like why many go to car races hoping for a crash.

I wonder what the worldwide ratings were. I live in Aussie and watched the live broadcast on our public station. Sadly it didn't have the ticker or split screen shots.

Can't wait for the town hall format and see if McCain loses his cool, gritting his teeth through that smirky grin. I hope someone in the audience asks him about why he's selling his $17mil Phoenix mansion. Does his campaign need the money?

Gabrielle said...

OMG, all that winking and mugging and perky adorableness was just exhausting to watch... Palin was never on point... never even made an attempt to engage in an adult discussion/debate... simply spewed her scripted words in what to me seemed childish and narcissistic -- removed from not only the reality of the format, but the reality of the issues.

Without her Debate Camp notes and memorized palaver, she would have most certainly been duplicating her Couric performances and channeling that infamous beauty queen with gems like: "...everywhere like such as..."

David said...

"All I see is a fly off the handle, belligerent whom I don't want in charge. See Dr. Strangelove."

How long do you think it will be before McCain starts mumbling about precious bodily fluids?

Kelly said...

Lots of people are saying the only way McCain could win, is if some major scandal broke out or if there was a National Security issue in the next month.

My brother has an interesting conspiracy theory - Osama Bin Ladin will be captured a week or two before the election.

Who gets the credit? Who would the election swing for? My bet's on the Republicans were right and John McCain will be elected.

Of course, worse is another attack on the US. Cause everyone turns conservative when that happens.

Patrick Roberts said...

it would be dangerous for the GOP to reschedule another VP the more unscripted air time Palin gets the more time people will have to realize that she couldn't answer a question about any of the major issues if her life depended on it... the prospect of her becoming the Commander in Chief is frightening

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平平 said...

^^ very nice

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