10.03.2008

Vice-Presidential Debate Post-Mortem, Live From π in the Loop

Tonight, we didn't see any major game changing, trainwreck moments. The big question is: putting aside Sarah Palin's final comment about how great more of these debates would be, how much exposure will Steve Schmidt allow her? With the exception of a few short, scripted rally speeches, vis-a-vis the press will she go straight to Dick Cheney's bunker, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

I suspect she will. Despite what I view as the correct, hammering demand to have Palin face questioning in a press conference format from the grand old men of the blogosphere, Josh Marshall and Andrew Sullivan, I don't suspect the Obama campaign will much push the issue, and the McCain people have to be scared to death to have any more Couric-style answers out there. They want to lock this performance in and keep it in stasis.

Joe Biden was strongest tonight in the beginning and in the end -- much the way high school students are coached to write strong essays. Capture your audience's attention at the beginning and the end, because psychological studies tell us we remember the first and last things we hear more than other parts of the larger whole. And in the middle, try not to screw it up.

Body language-wise, I'll have to watch the debate again, silently, to get a better feel. But it didn't have the uncomfortable hostility of the first McCain-Obama debate. Biden seemed perfectly relaxed, and Palin was a bit nervous, but nobody will hold that against her. These two were comfortable looking at each other. Once she got the blood flowing, Palin seemed to relax and enjoy the sparring and grew more comfortable as time went on.

Tomorrow, the big story is unlikely to be anything major from this debate. It'll be the House attempting to pass the economic bailout package. Particularly if the House fails to pull this off, the story will change, and we'll be on to the next cycles. Ah the press cycle, she is a fickle mistress.

My early read on the mood of Palin's supporters is they're pleased with her performance, and didn't seem to let down any. The other read was that the debate really wasn't going to change their opinion much. To the base, this is someone who is one of them. "Sarah!" we heard supporters yelling to each other in the parking lots after the debate.

It's been another wild and fascinating day on the road that, for me, began at the Democratic convention and hasn't relented yet. Thanks for bearing with us through the Blogger problems that had us tearing our hair out, and look for a resumption of the On the Road series tomorrow. Here comes Brett with a beer. (That's a hell of a photographer.) G'night.

492 comments

NC_voter said...

"Type your summary here

Type rest of the post here"

Looks like someone is suffering from some premature-commentation!

yiannis said...

There's a difference between candidates answering a question and then pivoting to their own talking points and a difference between completely losing the debate.

Not once did Ifill seriously confront them about their obfuscation. The economic policy part was atrocious for both candidates. Shallow, canned and unchallenged answers. Ifill should have muscled both of them back to answering her questions not just make a passing remark.

There was almost nothing about healthcare or immigration.

Biden was much better at foreign policy, not because I agree with his policies (he's severely more hawkish than Obama) but because he knew what he was talking about.

Not only Ifill had no power to force them to answer the question, she had little control of facts and history.

I mean who the fcuk is Palin's General Mclelland? Is he directing the Biden Bosniacs?

How did Biden get away with his criticisms of Obama? As an Obama supporter Biden concerns me in terms of foreign policy. I disagreed with Biden in terms of foreign policy a lot.

Then how on earth does any serious moderator allow Palin's non-answers on Israel and foreign policy to explain?

Jack-be-nimble said...

Who knows whether it will make any difference, but Palin cleaned uncle Joe's clock. She was positive, energetic and connected with the people. Joe was tired, pedantic and was slurring his speech. There is the theought that his botox had not fully worn off.

DCM in FL said...

for SEAN Q.

when is your road trip arriving in FL ???

my local DEM HQ got a delivery in late this afternoon of new Obama/Biden 'hope/change' yard signs in styrofoam for the FL weather.

there was a line out the door in New Symrna Beach to buy them for $6 each with a reservation - and they ran out within an hour.

also all bumper stickers & other signs are long gone.

Obama signage is now the MUST have accesory for everyone suddenly this week here in central FL/Volusia County !!!

volunteers are tripping all over themselves at the HQ, DNC is advertising on TV against Feeney to support Kosmas, Clinton at UCF yesterday, polls through the roof...

my HOA will not allow yard signs, so I have been busy distributing bumper stickers to neighbors to put on cars & in windows.

I snagged 2 yard signs tonight that I had 'reserved'. Gave one to an elderly widow down the street as a 84th BD present - she LOVED it & asked me to help her fill out her absentee ballot for Obama. It went into the mail today - another vote banked in advance...

her daughter in Orlando asked me to get her some strickers & signs too

My own yard sign went up at dusk in my front kitchen window & because it is styrofoam, it backlights opaquely so it can be seen glowing from the street.

within minutes, 2 people came up to my front door to ask me how they could get their own signs for Obama...

last week - nothing

this week, ENTHUSIASM x10.

FL is going BLUE, folks !!!

come check it out...

DCM in FL said...

JACK BE NADA

say what ?

you must have had the sound off because that was not what really went down...

keep trying to sell it though.

but you are out on that Bridge to Nowhere all alone...

Sundie said...

Good news about Florida (above)!. Jack-be-nimble, my young dachshund is positive, energetic, and connects well with people also..

Jack-be-nimble said...

Especially at the end of the night he was slurring his speech. I'm sure he isn't on drugs, so the likely explanation is that he had recent botox. It's not a big deal. Many politicians do it. You don't think a guy who has doll hair plugs wouldn't go for a little botox?

Jeremy said...

The bigger news of the evening is that a judge tossed the GOP objection to the decision on Troopergate on the 10th.

Sarah-the-trained-monkey-Palin had her 90 minutes in the spotlight and next time she gets a headline will be for the petty loathsome criminal she is.

Brian Francis said...

Any time we are busy talking about Palin and not McCain is a bad time for Obama. We need to be forcing McCain to be explaining how he is different from Bush day in and day out. They can't do it because he isn't. When they say we're looking backward, say 'your damn right i'm looking backward to make your leader account for his mistakes' followed by Biden's great line 'the past is prologue'.

The snap CBS polls are shocking.

Brian
The Greatest Blog in History

DCM in FL said...

Nate has FL at a 70% win for Obama

never in my wildest dreams would I have hoped for such a position in early October...

we have been praying for a GOTV nail-biter victory

WOW

fired UP & ready to go !!!

Jack-be-nimble said...

The only difference between Obama and Palin is that he has had more time to memorize his lines. If she were the nominee and had 17 months to practice her lines, she would be running away with the election.

Arthur said...

If you begin with the proposition that these debaters were attempting to show that they are ready and prepared to take the second most powerful job in the world, Palin is clearly inadequate.

Personality and style aside, she has little to no grasp of the serious issues and is fairly weak even on her area of expertise, energy.

Imagine a Sept. 11 type scenario where the nation is attacked and the president is incapacitated and the nation has to turn to a vice president Palin to make the critical decisions needed to defend the country, decide how to respond to the attack and calm the nation...

A smile and a wink just won't get it. She is personable and cheerful, but lacks gravitas, intellect, and seriousness. She may be a decent governor, but she would be a disaster as a person required to lead this nation.

Jack-be-nimble said...

Look, Obama would be an abject failure in an 911 situation. He, like Carter would ask for so many opinions, that by the time he decided, we would have been hit again, killing more Americans. Should we elect him, we will all be in danger.

In addition the ecomomy will fall further into a spiral with more out of control spending and higher taxes.

Jonathan said...

It looked like Palin was referencing note cards a lot, but I didn't see her writing notes. (You can see her in the rear view camera on some of the coverage).

Were the candidates allowed to take prepared notes into the debate? Is that normal?

DCM in FL said...

JACK

but your favorite GMILF bragged that she "had been in this for like 5 weeks"

she was proud of her ignorance & of avoiding answering the direct questions

and Sarah repeated over & over how she & John would get government off of people's back & cut taxes - but proposed getting more involved in education at the federal level !!! WTF

plus she kept saying FEAR, FEAR, FEAR and wall street greed & banking greed - remember John & the Keating 5 ??? Mac must have been peeing his pants...

Sedi said...

"Who knows whether it will make any difference, but Palin cleaned uncle Joe's clock."

Who knows if mindless, baseless comments have an impact, but let's hope that we aren't permanently less intelligent for having to read such drivel. Even by you own standards (positive, energetic, and connected to the people) she fared no better than a draw, and that is being extremely generous to her and grading on a curve. Do you not look at objective reaction polls? I suppose it's easier just to imagine your own reality than to have to try to figure out what it actually is. I'd be interested to know what a reasonable and thoughtful conservative thought. VA Con or FL GOP, are you reading? What did you think?

None of this matters much, of course, since it is a virtual certainty that this won't change the debate much, if at all.

DCM in FL said...

JACK

comeon, you are really grasping...

what did Bush do when the twin towers were hit ???

let's recall, he was sitting on a stool in a FL kindergarten or elementary class...

then he immediately went into hiding & could not make a decision.

Cheney basicallt took over the country from his own bunker as Bush flew around in AF1...

that is your brave decisive leader...

McCain would be worse as he would launch 'nuclar' [palin & bush] bombs at everyone/anyone that he had a grudge against including SPAIN

Biden pwned McCain with the Spain reference... Palin probably went over her empty head

and how about climate change ???

what did Ms airhead say on that ???

bmcworldcitizen said...

The appearance of the terminally brain washed on the threads is a useful bellweather. Sarah "you betcha!" Palin encouraged her base of ignorant human hating God lovers, but little else.

Hopefully she will just fade into the background now like a proper little VP candidate.

Jack-be-nimble said...

I am sensing a little panic in the Obama camp......

The little girl, cleaned Grampa Joe's clock.

Grampa was stuck on George Bushes, George Bushes, George Bushes.............. broker record...I think he had an order to say George Bush 39 times.

Obama/Biden are the past and Palin/McCain are the future.

David Sanger said...

"I mean who the fcuk is Palin's General Mclelland? Is he directing the Biden Bosniacs?"

There is nothing wrong with the term Bosniak. It is the proper way to refer to the Ethinc Group: CIA World Factbook

"Ethnic groups:
Bosniak 48%, Serb 37.1%, Croat 14.3%, other 0.6% (2000)
note: Bosniak has replaced Muslim as an ethnic term in part to avoid confusion with the religious term Muslim - an adherent of Islam"

Vote said...

VP Debate: Live Analysis

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

Obama 355, McCain 183

Oct 2 Polling Update

Jack-be-nimble said...

When you have nothing to say, you spout talking points.

RedHawksO4 said...

Keep up the great writing and sorry about the Cubs!



VP Debate Reactions and VP Debate Poll

Ben said...

On body language:

I thought Biden had the best, and the worst moments, and Palin had practicaly no moments.

Best for Biden: there was a cutaway shot, from behind him while he was speaking - he had a hand in his pocket (it was at a moment where I felt he was on a role) and he looked relaxed yet confident.

Worst for Biden: when he spoke of reaching acorss the aisle, he put his hand in front of the podium for an awkward length of time, only made worse by the camera cutting to a shot from over the audience that showed that was was practically reaching for Ifell.

Palin, by contrast, barely moved, she stood upright, tense, I think this is the true problem behind the nervousness - speakers who are nervous tend to stand perfectly still, not moving their arms, concentrating solely on speaking.

Who won or lost the body language is tough to decide, if only because it wasn't nearly as apparent as in the 1st POTUS debate - but I think it has to go to Biden for at least using some and seeming confident.


One other point, and I don't know how this came across for others, but Biden looked (physically) awful at the very beginning, his eyes nearly closed, it looked like his tear-ducts had just been stitched. As the debate went on, his eyes opened and he became much, much more animated (and I see this going directly with his performance, which got stronger and stronger, after initial stumblings).

DCM in FL said...

Jack

talkin points pretty much sums up your drivel

which GOPer site do you rely on to cut & paste your spam from ???

lewessnd said...

Palin only helped ease GOP fears; there was not enough to convince IND or DEM undecideds--

Biden did connect with them and reduced their numbers if we are to believe the snap polls 2-1 for Obama vs. McSame.

Other news could reduce focus on this debate: the stock market, the credit problem, the US House vote.

Sage said...

On at least 2 occasions, Palin _directly_ agreed with Bush/Cheney .. I expect to see that in ads -- with any luck.

Jen said...

I thought the term was Bosnian. I guess I was wrong.

Did she really wink in the debate? Who winks anymore? That is just strange. What was she talking about when she winked? (I listened to the debate on the radio on the way home from work.)

Jack-be-dimbulb-

You are mistaking panic for excitement. Biden was better than expected and Obama is doing pretty well in the polls.

AlaskaGuy said...

While the big news tomorrow might be the House vote in the lower 48, up here in Alaska it will be the Superior Court ruling today that the Troopergate investigation will continue, and the subpoenas, (including Todd Palin's), are valid.

I was of the mind set before the debate that Sarah would do well enough to maintain the status quo, and then fade into the background not to be seen or heard from until Nov 4th. I still think that, at least on a national level, but back home it's a different matter.

Doug said...

All SP did was spout talking-points. Only this time she managed to arrange them into coherent sentences, unlike during the Couric interviews. It's too bad, though, that she never used those talking points at the right time as she rarely answered any of the questions.

SP was much better than I expected, but JB still won by a handy margin.

PorridgeGun said...

Shit, I forgot to post this earlier. Although, to be fair, we couldn't post anything for a bit there.


For tonight's VP debate, play PalinBingo!!!

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/for-tonights-vp-debate-play-palinbingo.html

DCM in FL said...

JEN

she WINKED [as in a big intentional oversized dramatic wink] directed at the camera at least twice...

it was very odd, especially the second time & inappropriate completely.

my mom made a strange face when she did that - it was uncomfortable in a serious VP debate format.

plus Palin only looked directly into the camera the entire time - never really looked at Biden or at Gwen [she called him O'Biden at least once too]

and she proved how dense she was about the generals & SofS & Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan/pakistan & even Israel & Palestine

plus Biden pwned McCain over the SPAIN diss which was a total FUBAR

PorridgeGun said...

My Original Prediction:


Biden won't be Biden. He'll be the Obama '08 version of Biden. In my view, that's a bad thing.

Palin is fully protected from any embarrassing moments. Modfications to the debate format, courtesy of the McCain campaign, effectively saw to that. Biden isn't even allowed to engage her in a face to face debate. That's absurd.

Like we saw at the RNC, Palin will be fully prepped and ready with talking points that have been drilled into her head by Schmidt. Even a blithering idiot whose spent time in debate camp can be made to look good.


Gwen Ifil will lob softballs at Palin all night. Jim Lehrer's moderating in Debate One was piss-poor. He let McCain ramble and get in the last word. Expect worse from Ifil. I still remember her utterly irrelevant, not to mention retarded, questions 4 years ago with Cheney vs. Edwards.



The MSM will instantly declare Palin the winner (exceeding low expectations, a zinger here and there, etc.),. Bottom line: The McCain Media need a HORSE RACE, or the perception of one.





Post-Debate:


Biden was 50/50, which was good, as proven by the overwhelming approval from undecideds and the focus grups/snap polls.

I give Biden enormous credit for not bursting out laughing while Mooseburger was saying stuff. I thought she came across as a scripted loon, quite frankly. You could almost see Steve Schmidt pulling the strings behind her. It ws utterly bizarre.



Back to 50/50 Biden. He did his Obama '08 duty, but more importantly, stepped it up and addressed the camera and showed the American people who Joe Biden is. The differnce in authenticity was stark. Palin just pulled her convention act, hoping it would fly with people outside the FReeptad U.S.A.



Gwen Ifil didn't disappoint. She was certainly better than 4 years ago, and I give her credit for that. Some of her questions were extremley relevant. She was light years better than Jim Lehrer. And she'll certainly be bettre than McCain hacks Brokaw and Shieffer.




The MSM didn't have anything to work with, in terms of creating a HORSE RACE. The voters for once are contradicting their biased reporting.

Vince said...

"There is nothing wrong with the term Bosniak. It is the proper way to refer to the Ethinc Group: CIA World Factbook"

ZING!

I actually thought Palin did a lot better than I had expected, and to some extent agree with Geraldine Ferraro's commentary on NBC afterwards -- glad she held her own and didn't turn it into more cannon fodder for SNL.

I also winced a couple times on Biden's body language, when he started getting a bit testy in the middle, and once sighed audibly into the mic.

My favorite bit of commentary though is reserved for this gem:

9:23 CDT: [Sean] Wow, Nate.

9:22 CDT: [Nate] What kind of prop odds could you have gotten on Biden being the one to cry?

That's one cynical, evil, number-crunching robot. But a funny evil robot. They should call Nate Bender!

mia said...

Just so you know...
Bosniaks are an actual people. Otherwise known as Bosnian Muslims - the victims of the genocide discussed by Sen. Biden.

JC said...

The debate was a draw. Palin stuck to generalities and talking points, didn't look stupid, and wasn't forced off her game. Biden stuck to specifics and only rarely rose to rhetorical heights of any sort.

The McCain/Palin slide will be halted, but they won't climb any farther out of the hole they're in.

Gary said...

> Jack-be-nimble said...
Look, Obama would be an abject failure in an 911 situation.

I'm sorry, but Bush has been an abject failure. We did not get our man, Bin Laden is still there getting ready to take over Pakistan. We went after a contained country ... and now our surge wins us what exactly?

> would have been hit again, killing more Americans. Should we elect him, we will all be in danger.

Al Queda's payroll was captured by the way. 71 people. That's it. We over reacted and bankrupted ourselves.

> In addition the ecomomy will fall further into a spiral with more out of control spending and higher taxes.

I"m sorry, we're already there after 8 years of easy money Bush. We socialize under him. Frickin hellow -- Bush has taxed me: 41% of all my wealth gone in the sinking currency. Stocks flat and down over 8 years. Bankrupcy and national ruin. I'd rather pay my taxes up front thank you. Spying, torture, politicised justice department. What in fruck are you defending?? IT DOESN'T GET WORSE THAN BUSH and I'm a conservative. What the heck are you??? Obama is a prudent man, a constitutional scholar, a student of the federalist papers. We need someone like that about now ... to avoid the socialism you fear -- it's coming from the spend and spend republicans.

DCM in FL said...

watching/listening to it again in rerun on MSNBC

Palin is even worse in the rerun when you try to degarble the convoluted 'answers' in her poorly constructed sentences & random phrases spouted as rote talking points - but out-of-sequence & lacking context

she just said 'ruffled feathers' 'maverick' and 'change is coming' in the same runon sentence that meant nothing in avoiding answering the Q's.

she would be a great drinking game if you wanted to get bombed...

"nuclar weaponry would be the be-all end-all" - she just said that & pronounced nuclear just like BUSH !!!

2 or 3 shots...

AlaskaGuy said...

mia,

You aren't actually suggesting that Biden might know his stuff vis-a-vis foreign policy are you? :D

PorridgeGun said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Joey said...

Missed the debates earlier so just got done watching now. Here are my thoughts before I pass out:

I thought Palin did VERY well. Certainly redeemed herself, and I found her quite charming. She didn't answer like half the questions though.

I'm in love with Joe Biden. He was OUTSTANDING. He did EXACTLY what everyone said he needed to do. He was friendly with her, joked with her, was personable, and attacked McCain, and let her mistakes be her mistakes for others to bring up. Spot on performance.

I also found it amazing how many of us joked about Sarah Palin breaking down and crying, and yet it was BIDEN who had that moment of choking up. And I have to say, it was completely unexpected and real and I was TOTALLY moved by it.

I don't really know that this will have a big effect on the voter momentum, but while each candidate did what they had to do, it's clear Biden won handily.

Jen said...

DCM-

What was she talking about when she winked? WTF? Does she think she is in a cover girl commercial or something? Sorry, it just seems so bizarre to me that she winked twice.

She said Obiden twice. I guess her debate prep did not include her opponents name. She should have written it on her hand

PorridgeGun said...

50/50 Biden = Obama '08 version of Biden/Joe Biden (in his own words, talking directly to HIS people)



Joe Biden (in his own words) WON the night. It was a triumph for him personally, not the Obama campaign. David Gergen even said it was a debate peformance of a life-time.




Also, I think this pundit reaction summed it up:

In contrast, Sen. Joe Biden got stronger as the debate went on. He showed he has the best debating skills on either ticket. He was particularly strong in defending Sen. Barack Obama and strapping Sen. John McCain tightly to President Bush. Biden handily won this debate.






BTW, these first two debates were far better than 4 years ago. Bush pulled a bunch of silly faces. Kerry just had to look normal and give concise answers. As a result, he closed the gap overnight. That was the story.

Cheney vs. Edawrds was fascinating to watch, but the questions were shitty, and we were denied a classic moment in debate history when Edwards failed to call Cheney a liar to his face for claiming he'd never met Edwards before that night. That could've, and should've, became more famous than "You're no Jack Kennedy".




My point is, lay off the "boring" tag. Despite the restrictions, these debates have been pretty good.

Gadfly said...

As a left-liberal not voting for either one (go Cynthia), I can say with more objectivity that Biden won. On issues of poise/presentation/demeanor, and on discussion (it AIN’T a debate), he won by more than Obama did, in fact.

That said, as a Green supporter, both are pretty crappy on alt-energy, with “slightly less dirty” coal and ethanol.

And, it’s a flat lie (that’s you, Joe Biden) to claim that you and Obama don’t discriminate against gays when you, too, oppose gay marriage. It’s a second lie to claim that marriage is a church institution.

Other negative points for both, per my blog?

A truly destabilized Pakistan is actually more worrisome than Iran with a primitive nuclear weapon.

And, they got that wrong due to Israel pandering.

Sean, do you think Schmidt can withstand the Religious Right clamor to “whip her out,” which is going to hit a new fever pitch? Can he risk alienating them?

newyorker2874999 said...

I'm no right winger, but fair is fair. Palin is entitled to at least one whole semester of prep before being thrown into final exam mode.

Most governors who run for VP do so only after having spent a couple years prepping for the top job, (e.g. how to successfully negotiate the MSM gotcha circuit, only to lose in the primaries.

In contrast, Palin was basically drafted to drop everything and come to the aid of her party, and she's been nothing if not a dutiful soldier thus far. I can't help suspecting that much of the "unqualified" assessment is really a surrogate for "ideologically unwelcome".

DCM in FL said...

JEN

I can not force myself to watch her repeat performance because it just looks so creepy & stepford wives robotic/canned responses.

but if I recall correctly, the last WINK was toward the end when she once again got all cutesy & folksy & said "change is a'coming "[WINK] right into the camera - it was so obviously planned & rehearsed but she muffed it so it looked totally phony.

the rest of the time she played with her bangs in her eyes, blinking & flutterring her eyelashes while looking down to read her cue cards verbatim it appeared...

and watch a replay - she is hunched over like Bush does behind the podium.

I think she was stiff & nervous & rushed her 'lines' & pulled a few punches that missed the mark [including the canned "there you go, Joe" line which was also lame...

the hunching looked to be so she could get lower to read her cards easier ???

looked very odd but went with the snarky attitude & plastic smiles...

tejasdem said...

I loved it when Biden pulled the rug out from under her "I'm a Mom" crap when he talked about his sons. That was genuine emotion and something that had the rest of us single parents cheering. The Right's insistence that only two parent families are 'real' families is bunk and it's refreshing to see a Presidential ticket made up of a man raised by a single mother and a man who raised his sons after his wife's death. I certainly didn't forget that he'd just seen one son off to Iraq. Failin' Palin didn't seem to notice. Gee thanks, Palin. You couldn't even acknowledge the one thing you have in common besides a common hominid ancestor?

Palin's only 'success' is that she didn't look like a complete idiot. She only looked like a partial idiot as she avoided answering any question she didn't have a memorized, sanitized, approved answer for.

I've never been a huge Biden supporter. Tonight, however, tonight he showed he was not only knowledgeable, capable of learning from his mistakes and eager to serve, he also showed he was human.

Palin didn't.

Jen said...

On the radio, she sounded rambling and somewhat incoherent, except on the gay marriage question. She actually sounded confident and pretty articulate on that one, though I disagree with her. I think that was because it was a question that did not involve "knowing" anything, just "believing" something.

esmith said...

I actually thought Palin did a lot better than I had expected, and to some extent agree with Geraldine Ferraro's commentary on NBC afterwards -- glad she held her own and didn't turn it into more cannon fodder for SNL.


She did actually: "i'm not going to answer your questions" ??? then going ahead and answering whatever she wants to answer? The wink? Great skit...

DCM in FL said...

'John McCain knows what eveil is"

she said that - she really did.

if John knows how to win a war, well which war has he ever helped the USA win ???

history shows John knows how to lose wars....

johntfs said...

Does anyone think it a possibility that if Obama is elected he'd get her to be his Secretary of Energy? It does seem to be the one policy area in which she's truly comfortable. I can't see McCain in an Obama administration because this defeat would be too bitter for McCain to swallow. However, the Obama campaign hasn't really targeted Palin herself all that much, preferring to let the media do their talking. Even Biden avoiding attacking Palin, instead going after John McCain, which was probably wise.

So, thoughts on that idea?

walt526 said...

Both candidates accomplished what they set out to do and exceeded expectations.

Biden managed not to make any gaffes, was able to weave in his personal story about his late wife and daughter (if any undecideds had never heard), and came across as having mastery over the full range of issues. While he did not attempt much of an offense, he effectively defended Obama's record--particularly on middle class tax cuts.

Palin managed to not look totally ill-informed on the issues, as she did repeatedly in the Gibson/Couric interviews. It seemed clear to me that she has only a superficial understanding of many of the issues, but she avoided making a major mistakes. As expected, she presented herself as down-to-earth and personable. Overall she did a good job of delivering her lines and presenting a likeable fresh face. She's probably no longer a huge liability to the GOP ticket, but she's still not really an asset.

On the points, Biden won the debate hands down. It is clear to any objective observer that he is significantly more ready to assume the presidency if needed. Palin did fine on style, but even there it's probably a push. Both candidates presented themselves as decent, well-intentioned people.

It would be a mistake for both GOP and Democrats to seek a second VP debate. There is nothing for Biden to prove (particularly with a substantial lead) and they can't risk any sort of gaffe (especially one that comes across as misogynistic). Palin didn't embarrass herself, but only because Ifill didn't ask any tough follow-up questions. She can't expect to get the kid-gloves treatment again.

If McCain is going to have any sort of a shot, then he needs to win at least one of the two remaining debates with Obama hands down. And given his oratory limitations, McCain will probably need a major mistake by Obama to give him that opportunity.

So it remains Obama's race to lose.

Texas liberal said...

Jack,

You are right when you have nothing to say, you spout talking points and that is what Palin did. Without talking points, she is a babbling idiot. Biden rocks.

DCM in FL said...

ESMITH

the skit with Tina Fey will have not only the winking but the Say it aint so, Joe line and the SHOUT-OUT to the 3rd graders & extra credit...

WTF ?

in AK it was early evening - not late night.

plus she is now going on about all the powers of the VP

SNL should have a ball with all the material she gave them tonight as well as in the Couric interviews...

geez... what a joke she makes out of the most serious stuff

I am embarrassed for her & all women & the GOPers especially

mhigh said...

After tonight, Palin will be about as important to the McCain campaign as Biden currently is to the Obama campaign.

Which means: Not much. Either way.

Tonight's performance pretty much innoculated her. She has gone from being a laughingstock/disaster-waiting-to-happen to...just another VP candidate.

All this week, Palin was either Issue Number One or Issue Number Two in the news cycle. After tonight, she's much further down that list. For better *and* for worse. Now we can move forward and start talking about other issues. Again, for better *and* for worse.

(And don't expect much follow-up on all the lies and misstatements by Palin in the news cycle in the upcoming days. People don't pay much attention to that sort of stuff, unless it's a real whopper)

Also, I too have noticed the sudden resurgence of the McCain trolls in various message boards, like Jack-be-Mumble in this particular thread for example. They had largely gone into hibernation over the past two weeks, but looks like Palin's performance woke them up.

whispers said...

If Obama were to pick a Republican for his cabinet, it would not be Palin. The fact that it's an area where is isn't floundering hopeless does not put her high on the list of candidates for a _Democratic_ President.

Also, usually any cross-partisan cabinet appointments are not supposed to be high visibility people.

Palin looked likeable and she certainly did better when sticking to her talking points than I had expected her to, but she was hardly up there as a VP candidate.

Palin's biggest problem is McCain's biggest problem: they have to explain why voters should stick with the incumbent party of a wildly unpopular President whose policies are being blamed for all the ills of today.

rstevens said...

I love Joe and could listen to him all night long. So glad he held back and didn't act overbearing. It really looks like the game was hang back, be smart and let the other side slip. (even though she didn't slip much)

It's Obama's election to lose!

Dare To Hope. Prepare To Be Disappointed.

brown said...

Palin was okay. She didn't go into a tailspin, which was about all anyone could have asked from her. But Biden was fantastic. It was obvious in almost every answer that he is the superior debater. His answers were much more substantial, and he was much less prone to rambling platitudes. Final prediction, after the who-won polls carry over: Obama gets another point or two nationally, McCain doesn't budge.

walt526 said...

"Does anyone think it a possibility that if Obama is elected he'd get her to be his Secretary of Energy?"

I don't think that has a chance of happening. There's significant difference between her views on the intersection between environmental concerns and exploitation of conventional energy resources (ANWR, off-shore drilling). She also doesn't have much of a background in renewables, which is where an Obama administration is going to focus.

Obama might appoint a Republican to the cabinet, but it would have to be a non-national figure (eg, like Bill Cohen serving as Defense Secretary for Clinton).

Plus, I highly doubt Palin would want the job. If she has any future as a national candidate in her own right, it is as an outsider fighting against the establishment. She'll also have far more autonomy as a highly popular governor than as a cabinet member in a Democratic administration.

PorridgeGun said...

Huge mistake from Mooseburger:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC1W1_sTgFE


Anyone know what her mistake was? Hint: It's not that she fell back on tiresome McMaverick talking points.

liforcerenewal said...

Palin should be hung by her toenails~not given a chance to serve ANY honorable position in Obama's cabinet.All she wants to do is "rape" the Artic refuge(which there isn't enough oil to bother with there)~She is public enemy #1 towards all life-forms except for un-born babies. Once they reach 18, she will ship them off to her wars...May she burn in HELL with the rest of the neocons, as a matter of fact, weI'll get the champagne bottle, and we can "chrisen" the ship as we send them all off to sea.
~Special council for the Trees...

EmonOkari said...

When Biden spoke about his family's loss, and defending the fact that DADS love their kids just as much as MOMS...it really touched me. He went on about losing his wife and child, broke up emotionally, and pushed forward. From a non-partisan viewpoint, I longed to reach through the TV, put my hand on his shoulder, and look him in the eye with reassurance.

At that EXACT moment, with both my wife and I shedding a tear...Palin gave a quick smirk and 'bubbly' went on about McCain being a 'Maverick'. It was as if she didn't care. My wife blurted out 'what a bitch!'...and I just shook my head in dumbfoundedness. Does this lady have ANY emotion, ANY real-ness, or is she just a scripted Barbie Doll that spouts an unrelated talking point every time you pull her strings? So very sad.

DCM in FL said...

is Sean at Pi in the Loop or is he having pie to celebrate ???

pushing daisies - McCain's least favorite show most likely...

tejasdem said...

Whispers...not only that, but given McCain's 90% support of Bush in the past 8 years, they've got to overcome *that* as well as mere party affiliation.

McCain has been a "candidate in waiting" as if the only thing that need qualify him for president is that it's "his turn".

He's not just a has been, he's a never was. Goodness knows he ditched any honor he had years ago when he decided to ride Bush's coattails. That alone says a great deal about his judgment... or lack thereof.

Oh, Miz Molly, I really wish you were still here to write about this.

John Mashey said...

Please read Michael Klare's short article:

Palin's Petropolitics.

Alaska is unlike *any* other US state economically, it is more like Venezuela or Oman.

Gov. Palin hasn't displayed even the slightest understanding of any energy issues beyond trying to extract more revenue from oil companies.

[I used to help sell supercomputers to petroleum companies worldwide, and I have two friends at the Chairman/Vice-Chairman level of large oil companies; I just attended the ASPO Peak Oil conference last week, and I'm at the Stanford Global Climate and Energy program's conference this week ... and so far, I see no evidence that she actually even understands the oil business, much less energy in general. She doesn't seem to understand oil depletion curves, Peak Oil, etc.

From that article:
"At a meeting of the National Governors Association in February, Palin argued against providing subsidies for alternative energy sources, claiming that domestic sources of oil and gas--many located in Alaska--can satisfy the nation's needs for a long time to come. "The conventional resources we have can fill the gap between now and when new technologies become economically competitive and don't require subsidies," she asserted. When pressed by a reporter for Oil & Gas Journal she went further, denouncing government support for renewable energy. "I just don't want things to get out of hand with incentives for renewables, particularly since they imply subsidies, while ignoring fuels we already have on hand."

DCM in FL said...

Biden is busting the Maverick myth right now on MSNBC

go get 'em Joe

I cheered out loud when he went on the attack big time !!!

DCM in FL said...

in summary

"so maverick he is not"

wish he could have tackled the POW veteran thing

Biden missed a major opening when he failed to go after Mccain for voting against veteran's benefits this summer. He should have slammed John hard on that

maybe he held that back for Obama to pound McCain with next week ???

DCM in FL said...

why no mention of the Keating 5 S&L scandal = Mccain ???

geez, what an opening with the current wall street/banking fiasco & trillion dollar bailouts.

would YOU trust the national treasury to John Mccain who was a puppet for Charles Keating ???

Michael said...

johntfs posted:

"Does anyone think it a possibility that if Obama is elected he'd get her to be his Secretary of Energy?"

No, nobody thinks that's a possibility. Not a chance! Obama will not nominate people for cabinet positions who are opposed to his policies as regards their portfolios, and the very idea of putting Palin in his cabinet is completely absurd on grounds of policy, politics, and competence.

Besides, right now, there are some questions about whether Palin may end up in prison or perhaps recalled or impeached and removed from office.

Mylegacy said...

Well, now that it's over Biden can get back campaigning to make Obama the next President and Palin can be sent south to the adoring masses of southern intellectual flat earthers - aka - the Republican base. She won't be allowed to take another question the whole campaign.

However - all hell is about to break loose - the Troopergate investigation now has sworn testimony and a paper trail to prove the Palin's acted improperly in getting Trooper Wootens WCB claim cancelled. The inverstigation concludes the 10th of October and despite the fact every slimy Repub lawyer in the lower 48 came up and tried to squelch the show - Mrs. Pailin will end up impeached or in jail. Could be both. Maybe while there she can shoot the breeze with Senator Stevens.

Blame said...

johntfs

Palin as Secreary of Energy?

Well, it would be more than she will do if McCain wins. That sexist would have her making the coffee.

But honestly it is a silly idea. Palin may be knowledgable about gas & oil to some extent, but she is hardly an expert. Worse we all know that Gas & Oil will not be enough.

How much does Palin know about Nuclear or Wind energy? How much about revamping the electric grid ready for electric cars?

This is a woman without even the most basic understanding of Science, or Economics.

Secretary of Energy is not a throw away job. How Obama prepares America for life without (much) oil over the next 8 years will define America's future.

Blue said...

1. There was moment in the debate that made my blood run cold. That was when Palin suggested the VP should be able to exert power over the Senate. NO! No no no no no no. No. We have checks and balances for a reason and the executive branch does NOT get to dictate to the legislative branch. NO! The idea is quintessentially unamerican.

2. The chipper way she said Biden's late wife's reward was in heaven was sickening.

3. It was funny when she accidentally said McCain was the candidate who should 'leave'.

4. The winking and cutesiness was degrading.

In other words, she did better than I expected.

Laura in WA said...

When Biden spoke about his family's loss, and defending the fact that DADS love their kids just as much as MOMS...it really touched me. He went on about losing his wife and child, broke up emotionally, and pushed forward.

I agree...I think the pundits may be underestimating effect of that moment, especially on women. Many women have a very strong emotional reaction to an adult man choking up (especially talking about his family). I'm sure it deeply moved many -- and at the very least, neutralized Palin's "I'm a regular hockey mom, I know what your lives are like" appeal.

At that EXACT moment, with both my wife and I shedding a tear...Palin gave a quick smirk and 'bubbly' went on about McCain being a 'Maverick'. It was as if she didn't care. My wife blurted out 'what a bitch!'...and I just shook my head in dumbfoundedness

My reaction to her response wasn't quite that strong, but it did strike me as more than a little tone-deaf. It seems like the natural, human thing to do when someone talks about something so personal and painful would be to at least acknowledge it -- even if you are in a debate setting.

Drowzee said...

"Jack-be-nimble said...

When you have nothing to say, you spout talking points."

That's quite a good summary of Palin. Welcome to team Obama, Jack!

Heh.

tejasdem said...

Blue, on your #2 point: I was right there with Sean when she said that. That just alienated every teacher in the nation. Teachers are, by far, *the* single most important group of people we have and they're treated like dirt. These are the people educating, not only our *children*, but the future leaders of America. That should be one of the highest paid professions rather than one of the lowest. No one should have to take a pay cut to become a teacher. Education is the most important industry of the 21st century. We should treat it that way. Anyone who espouses "family values" should be looking to raise the lot of teachers everywhere.

DCM in FL said...

OMFG

looks like even the hardest core neo-cons are starting to work their way through the stages of grief since Mccain appears to be losing it...

this morning, hardcore rightie Charles Krauthammer has an opinion piece up on RCP:

'Obama Passing the Reagan Threshold'

@ http://comments.realclearpolitics.com/read/1/215127.html

post VP debate tonight, Charles is ready to concede the election to Obama !!!

I about passed out...

what will Rupert Murdoch say when he sees one of his favorite attack dogs becoming resonable ?

Charles must have reached the 'acceptance' stage...

will wonders never cease ???

tejasdem said...

*sigh*

Sean - HE! :-)

David said...

Thanks for pointing out that Bosniak is a proper term.

Does anyone else think it is odd that the CIA general public information uses HTTPS?

Maybe I am wearing too much tinfoil(perhaps not enough), but that makes me nervous.

Mark Joseph said...

I've made the point before a few times, most recently here, but it seems not enough read the Greatest Blog in History.

So I'll make the point again:

Sarah Palin is the governor of Alaska. She and all her citizens get a check every year for Alaskan oil sales. If America were to ever become energy independent and ween itself off of foreign oil then the world oil price would drop. As such, Alaska and Alaskan citizens would lose all kinds of money.

It is in Palin's and Alaska's best interest that oil prices stay high. She is one of the last people that should have anything to do with America's energy policy.

Blame said...

I think I have worked out why the Alaskan polls shifted so far GOP when Palin was picked.

If McCain wins Palin will have to resign as Govenor. Easier than impeaching her.

DCM in FL said...

Palin's Troopergate problems just got ratcheted up tonight:

'Judge Allows Alaska Troopergate Probe'

Judge Refuses to Block Alaska Troopergate Probe...

@ http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5942945&page=1

and watch for more Tina Fey [I hope] this Saturday night on SNL

Sarah made herself such an easy parody with all that cutesy mugging & winking & rambling non-answers tonight, you betcha !!!

DCM in FL said...

POLLSTER has an article upon the post-debate polls:

@ http://www.pollster.com/blogs/whats_a_win_vp_debate_edition.php

=========================================
CNN conducted a telephone survey among previously interviewed respondents who planned to watch the debate:

51% said Biden "did the best job," compared to 36% for Palin.
64% said Biden did better than they expected, 14% said he did worse than expected, 20% said he did the same as they expected.
84% said Palin did better than they expected, 7% said he did worse than expected, 8% said she did the same as they expected.
Asked before the debate if Sarah Palin is "qualified to be president," 42% said yes and 54% said no. After the debate, 46% said yes and 53% said no.
CBS again followed up with a survey of uncommitted voters (those totally undecided or who say they might still change their minds) using the Knowledge Networks nationally representative online panel:

46% said Biden won the debate, 21% said Palin won, 33% saw it as a tie.

18% of these originally uncommitted voters made up their minds to support Obama, 10% made up their minds to support McCain, 71% were still uncommitted.

53% said their opinion of Joe Biden changed for the better, 5% for the worse and 42% said their opinion did not change
55% said their opinion of Sarah Palin changed for the better, 14% for the worse and 30% said their opinion did not change

So two surveys say viewers thought Biden won, although neither broadcast indicated how partisans or independents within their samples reacted.

DCM in FL said...

RCP is showing INTRADE @ 67 - 32

Smitty said...

Thanks for the information from POLLSTER, DCM.

Before the debate, I knew I did not agree with Palin's view on several issues. After the debate, I can say she genuinely is SNL material.

My 83-year old mother, who had to drop out of school during WWII and work to help her single-parent mother financially, called me towards the end of the debate. My mother was quite upset that anyone, male or female, could be that ignorant and still be a candidate for Vice President of the United States. I finally got her calmed down by promising Senator Barack Obama will be our next President and Senator Joe Biden will be our Vice President.

"Good!" she said, and hung up.

Matthew said...

So now all to do is wait for tomorrow's polls, and tomorrow's stock markets!

Smitty said...

Matthew,

Wait for polls and stock market AND overnight economic indicators.

Wonder how many viewers for the debate tonight? Projections were for a larger audience than the first debate.

We really won't know how the VP debate was viewed, nationally, until Saturday or Sunday polling, right?

DCM in FL said...

SMITTY

I hope your mom is voting too !

I am assisting a number of elderly widows in my neighborhood to complete their absentee ballots this week so we can bank their votes for Obama now.

It is not that easy for them to fill out the ballots & get them returned properly. The GOP machine loves to toss them for 'irregularities' of any sort...

my mom was equally disgusted over Palin - especially that she would trot out her downs baby onto stage after a late debate for political points - and that the pregnant teen was the caregiver [again] rather than having her infant in a nice quiet crib sleeping like it should be.

I doubt that my mom was the only person deeply offended by that - or by the winking & smirking & fake smiling & ditzy cutsey act that makes women seem incompetent in general & that they must rely upon female charms to get ahead.

how pathetic...

Smitty said...

DCM,

Oh yes, my mother is definitely voting! She is a staunch Obama supporter and tells everyone she sees. LOL She is very disgusted that Montana is tilted McCain. (She refers to them as "idiots".)

Smitty said...

DCM,

My apologies! I read in an earlier thread that you were helping the elderly with their absentee ballots. I wanted to thank you for doing that! I'm so glad they are asking for help. I worked with the elderly when I was young (20's) and there were always a few who were too proud to ask for assistance. Had to be very creative with them. *g*

MATT J. H. said...

Sarah Palin has a remarkable ability to talk , talk, talk without saying anything. She fills time with nonsense better than any politician I have ever heard.

I must say that she is likable though. She may be dumber than bush but she's cute, she talks like an 18 year old beach babe, and she's a right wing nut all rolled into one. How did this woman get this close to President of the United States?

God help us if she ever gets there.

Dave said...

One of the reasons that Manny is such an amazing hitter is that he will supposedly sit on a pitch that he knows he can hit if he isn't going to get RBIs out of it. That way the pitcher will go to it later on when there's someone on base.

I thought of this when Palin whipped out the "tax increase for people making 42k" line, which for some reason the Obama campaign hadn't been refuting. I think I saw this a bit in the first debate as well - it looks like Obama and Biden are purposefully sitting on rebuttals until debates so that they know what pitch is coming. They have that liberty because of their cushion and because McCain's talking points aren't getting much traction - none of them are really big enough to cause damage, so there's no harm in waiting until everyone's watching to knock them down.

They're going on streaks in the debates where they shut down multiple shots in a row because McCain/Palin are just using points that they've already revealed in the press. You read the rebuttals in blogs almost immediately, but the campaign doesn't seem to be using them until the moment is right.

Roger said...

The was one pre-memorised Palin line that I thought was just despicable: when she brought up Joe Biden's dad wife, saying "her reward must be in Heaven", twisting the knife while grinning her trademark manic grin. I thought that was an incredibly low blow, trying to upset him by bringing up his personal tragedy. To his credit, he didn't rise to it, and kept on gunning for McCain.

So. Cal. Pol. said...

While this debate was not the train wreck for Palin that many predicted, her repetitive attempts to classify herself as a maverick with hardly any explanation and her consistent non-responses to questions I believe did not work with the viewers who instead felt that they were watching the Rebel Without a Clue.

Smitty said...

Good point, Dave! Plus, the audience for a debate is very large - the best possible time and place to do specific rebuttals.

Smitty said...

As a female, it seemed very strange to have another female half flirting to a television camera. I simply did not hat "wow, what a great presidential demeanor" sensation.

Smitty said...

oops, typo

Should read: I simply did not get that "wow, what a great presidential demeanor" sensation.

Obviously time to get a little rest! Night, all.

Francis Deblauwe said...

Have a look at the analysis I performed of the words used by Palin and Biden in tonight's debate. Just as for the 1st debate, I produced "bubble graphs" showing length and number of words and sentences and "word clouds" displaying which words were used more by each debater. You can find it all at my Word Face-Off blog.

Roger said...

...when she brought up Joe Biden's dad wife, saying "her reward must be in Heaven", twisting the knife while grinning her trademark manic grin.

I meant:

..when she brought up Joe Biden's dead wife, saying "her reward must be in Heaven", twisting the knife while grinning her trademark manic grin.

dsunbury said...

Hi everyone,

an Aussie poster here - been checking out Nate’s site for months now which is absolutely invaluable in following this election - great work Nate!

Watched the debate live through the msnbc website (which was morning/afternoon our time) and I know I'll upset some people here, but putting aside Palin's "style" and "how she came across" during the debate, isn't it pretty much universally accepted that she is as thick as a brick?

And I keep reading about how people like her because she's just an "average mum" and she isn't an "elitist" or university educated, etc. But, don't people want their politicians to be the most educated and most intelligent they can possibly be? Why would you want someone running the country you "could have a drink with" over someone who is unapproachable, elitist, but at least the most qualified and intelligent across a range of issues? Am I missing something?

tony said...

URGENT WARNING

In the previous thread entitled 'Post VP Debate Points' there is a comment from someone calling themselves 'stive' headed 'Palin thinks she lost the VP debate'.

Do NOT under any circumstances click on the associated link. It goes straight to what is obviously a malicious site designed to implant malware on your computer.

Nate - is there any way of excluding these malicious trolls?

It occurs to me that there may be some people out there who want to sabotage this excellent site.

Smitty said...

dsunbury,

Many of us do want someone who is the most educated, the most qualified, and the most intelligent across a range of issues.

Palin's appeal is largely to "one-issue" voters who outnumbered the rest of us. There are also voters who are "party loyal", voting for the party candidate.

Obama is neither unapproachable nor elitist. Why does he seem that way to some?

Smitty said...

Thank you, Tony! Thank you very much for this information.

dsunbury said...

Hi Smitty:

"Obama is neither unapproachable nor elitist. Why does he seem that way to some?"

I didn't mean to say he was at all! In fact the complete reverse - he is someone I would love to have a drink with! I meant to say that's how many on the Republican side of politics (mainly commentators) are painting people like Obama. That somehow because they are educated and intelligent they can't "connect" with the lower/middle classes. Which I think is complete garbage.

I take your point about "one-issue" voters, but don't they see what voting on the basis of single issues has done to the country?

Brian said...

I watched the debate here in UK. It's a shame I'm British and can't vote in your election because I think we'd do everything to keep Palin away from the "Nucular" button. Palin was just hilarious. I nearly fell off my seat with laughter when she talked about Biden's wife being a teacher and her "reward in heaven". I mean, are there some people in the US who actually take her seriously? She didn't answer the questions. Instead she was trotting out 3 or 4 rehearsed and scripted answers over and over again. She can plainly memorise things but she doesn't actually *know* anything. Truly awful woman.

Biden on the other hand sounded like the voice of experience. I know he did waffle on a bit, but at least he sounded like a human being.

pete alethophoros said...

The average American IS unintelligent and grossly uninformed. By any objective standard, Palin was dreadful. Any reasonably smart 11th grader across the US would have done better than her. She referred to no policies; there were no specifics, just motherhood and apple pie generalities. She was incoherent. She didn't answer any questions directly. She just spoke about energy and Alaska and tax cuts at EVERY opportunity. It was a disgrace, but there are no intellectual standards in US public life.

It wouldn't surprise me if she became President, one day.

Smitty said...

Who is the brain behind her? Is it the husband?

Mike in Maryland said...

Palin held serve (to some extent) TONIGHT by not doing a 'Couric interview-type' meltdown of not knowing how to answer a simple question ("What newspaper do you read, Sarah?").

The question from tonight is, "How will she do in the next interview?"

If she does another 'Couric' in her next interview (and I suspect that she will IF there actually is one), it will just show that she was well-rehearsed TONIGHT, but it will show that she does not have the insight to handle a simple interview, let alone be able to give advice that matters to the President.

The question will now be "When will she do a Sunday Morning News interview?" If she was able to handle TONIGHT, she should be able to handle a Sunday morning interview, shouldn't she?

Mike

bugstomper said...

Jen, I only saw one of the winks and that was near the end when she was giving a shout out to her dad in the audience, giving him a wink to go with the "Hi, Dad". She was just so aw-shucks dawggone cute in that last part I thought she was doing a Tina Fey impersonation.

To the people who commented about "her reward is in heaven" ... That was not about Biden's first wife who died in the car crash in 1972. His current, second, wife whom he married in 1977 is a long time teacher. A recent NYT bio of her:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/us/politics/25wife.html

KernelReefer said...

I would like to see the McCain flash approval ratings right before and right after the debate--I don't think anyone's really talked about how effective, in my opinion, Joe Biden's attacks on McCain were. The strategy is correct; people are not voting for the ticket (generally), they vote for the top of the ticket. And Biden was able to get away with consistent, qualified and constant attacks on McCain with only a throwaway sentence at best as a rebuttal. Everyone seems to agree that the strategy is dead on, but no one seems to talk about the effect of the strategy. Sure, it meant he insulated himself from being too patriarchal, etc. but did it ALSO produce the secondary effect of hitting McCain's ratings? This is one of the most watched debates in history, and I think that's an important metric to consider.

ogmb said...

I think the best thing that can be said about Palin's performance is that she clearly didn't have a transmitter hidden under her jacket.

Andy JS said...

Biden clearly won the debate. Anyone who thinks otherwise is obviously a hard-core GOP supporter. Andrew Sullivan thinks that Palin started okay but Biden came back strongly to win the debate overall.

bryen193 said...

The pundits really missed the boat on this one. Pat Buchannan actually said that Palin "wiped the floor" with Biden. Others, in their enthusiasm to note that Palin made no deadly gaffes and failed to melt into a puddle of her own sweat, seemed to miss out on a magnificent performance by Joe Biden. He displayed the main reason that I supported him as the VP choice over folks like Tim Kaine - he's been in the senate with McCain for 25 years, knows him well, and thus his attacks on McCain have a level of legitimacy and effectiveness that others' don't. Here are the two main reasons that Biden crushed Palin in this debate:

1. The debate was all about John McCain, and very little about Barack Obama, and of the two people on stage, only Biden seemed to actually know anything about John McCain. Biden was able to attack McCain's 25 year record again and again with specifics, and Palin could only respond by saying that McCain is a "maverick" and a great American, then try to change the subject back to herself - a subject that she knows something about. She was unable to effectively defend McCain because she simply doesn't know McCain or anything about his record except what some handlers with talking points have told her to say about him.

2. Biden won the major "chess move" of the night - big. It played out this way over and over throughout the 90 minutes: Biden would attack the Bush admininstration and tie McCain to Bush. Palin was coached to say that Biden is looking to the past and not the future. Biden would then say that he's examining the past becasue substantively, a McCain/Palin administration wouldn't differ from the Bush administration on any issue important to the average voter - challenging Palin to highlight and ennumerate the substantive differences on policy between Bush and McCain. She never did, thus giving credence and import to Biden's repeated examinations of the past.

neil said...

why is the last figure on the super tracker Obama +2? The average of yesterday's national poll surely must be around +5. Why the sudden drop on that graph?

bryen193 said...

"Who is the brain behind her? Is it the husband?"

No. I saw a long interview with him and he appears to be dumb as a stump. If he's the brains behind her, he's hiding it well.

Brad said...

She was fine, Biden won, lets move on. Non-event in the election, this will NOT move polls. People are a bit disappointed she didnt fail completely, but people still think she is an idiot.

Polls? Anyone got some fresh morning polls?

Any got some bandwidth to lend Nate to keep this site up this up today?

Brad said...

Neil-

Obama is up almost 6 on the supertracker. Scroll right...

Bandwidth? Nate, can you find some bandwidth?

Charles Crook said...

Palin calls herself an energy expert and says that natural gas is green.

She answered the global warming question by instead talking about the need for more drilling.

Brad said...

Bryen193-

Exactly right. Biden won this debate, Buchana is just happy his Palin sock puppet survived to ba an idiot for us in 2012. Her political career is over in the lower 48...she will run and be humiliated in 2012, making Huckabee look like a genius.

Darío said...

Dril, baby, drill is an energy plan?

Brad said...

Obama up 7 in the Battleground tracker this morning.

Porr John McCain, will he explode and fire Schmidt? He sure should!!!!

bpulliam said...

Best thing about last night is that if she can be where she is after only 5 weeks then the worst case scenario is that Obama is truly Carter redux. I imagine I could hold my nose for four years if I had to. Here in Mass. the Duval Patrick experiment has largely failed and I have no doubt it will be the same on a national stage with his clone Obama. She will be the first female President without question.

Brad said...

Is "drill, baby, drill" something Sarah says to her boyfriend or her daughter's boyfriend?

Brad said...

bppulliam-

LOL! How much money can I take from you on that bet? She would never have survived the primary...

Patrick is not Obama, Obama is smarter, more moderate, and a bridge builder. The comparison to Carter - a control freak - is even more laughable.

Keep dreaming, when you and Dick Cheney quit creating your own reality and join ours feel free to post again.

joel said...

Palin surprised me because she didn`t sound like a total idiot. That said Biden made her look like a little girl with her lack of knowledge and she just sounded like someone who crammed for a test and was spouting what she memorizes without really grasping the content.
After last night I am even more scared of Palin than before, She has no idea what a Vp is even from a constituional angle.
I suppose the conservative base is happy because she didn`t come off as an idiot but this won`t change the race.
Tuesdays townhall is McCains last chance to change anything, so Obama better be ready for another
hail mary.
PS new rasmussen of New Hamshire Obama by 10, seems a little suspect.

bpulliam said...

Obama a bridge builder? Half the country hates his guts with a passion and that isn't going to change.

She wouldn't have survived given where she is now, you are right. The comparison I meant was as a stepping stone for Reagan. She connects deeply with many of us and once her national policy gets up to speed she is going to be formidable ... you'll see. Reagan emerged the same way.

After Berkeley, Harvard, and 10 years in San Francisco I am just now recovered from your "reality" ... which in truth is the true fantasy. We'll all be happy and have everything koombaya I know. Enjoy your soup line.

John said...

bpulliam-

Palin did well therefore Obama is "Carter redux?" That makes sense.

And "Carter Redux" is also a "Duval" Patrick clone! Surely, they're both black!

And you're surely an expert on Patrick since you can almost spell his name correctly,



Get the hell out of here, idiot.

jnorthrop said...

You people are missing the point. Palin, like Bush in previous years, spoke in sound bites. They will play very well in the media today.

On the other hand if the employment numbers suck as bad a people fear and the House can't get it together on the bailout bill, it won't matter.

Brad said...

NH by 10 and 12 in the last two polls.

Looks like the safe route of Kerry + IA, NM, CO is pretty safe, and McCAin is only playing offense in PA and WI. Pretty scary fopr McCain, he needs a game changer. Last night was not it

justin32099 said...

"..when she brought up Joe Biden's dead wife, saying "her reward must be in Heaven", twisting the knife while grinning her trademark manic grin."

Jill Biden (the schoolteacher) isn't dead.

bpulliam said...

John said...
Get the hell out of here, idiot.

Yes ... the tolerance of the left, I forget.

Darío said...

People vote for Sarah because she´s an "idol".
But, for an independent vision, she has no sustance in the issues.

Darío said...

bpulliam, i´m not a leftist but she didn´t answer the economic questions.
Reagan was an excellent president, but this election is not about Reagan.

Brad said...

bppulliam-

I just joined reality after U of Chicago and MIT, and if you are actually educated and "connect" with Palin you really need to get off your meds.

Obama is a bridge builder, and he actually listens to people who disagree with him, a true refreshing thing after 8 years of hate from one side.

Half the country hates him? This is a polling, that is not the case. Quit reading the liar emails and go to fightthesmears.com. You can read, right?

Darío said...

Drill, baby, drill, this is a plan?
Please, i don´t like the American people who votes like Latin America, fon "idols".

Brad said...

Is "drill, baby, drill" something Sarah says to her boyfriend or her daughter's boyfriend?

AxelDC said...

Palin properly read the lines that she had been fed. She saved her place on the ticket. Another Couric-like performance and McCain would have had to replace her. He can now put her safely back in the box and not let her out again until Election Night.

Biden knew his stuff and took whack after whack at McCain, since he knew his "opponent" couldn't deviate from her script. He called her out for using single parents, and surprised himself by choking up when referring to the loss of his first wife and baby daughter many years ago that made him a widower-father. Palin's biggest gaffe of the night was immediately returning to her script, making her look cold and robotic.

Palin will not be making any more public appearances without a teleprompter. She will be the first VP candidate to never give a press conference. This tells us exactly what McCain thinks of her readiness to lead.

Graham said...

"Jen said...
I thought the term was Bosnian. I guess I was wrong."

Jen, Bosnian is the correct term for any citizen of the nation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

But that includes three groups: Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats, and the group called Bosnian Muslims (mostly converts to Islam during the long period of Turkish rule over the Balkans).

As others have pointed out above, Bosniac is now the accepted term for the group that used to be called "Bosnian Muslims". Why? Because Bosniac refers to the ethnic group. But some Bosniacs don't follow Islam, and it's always possible a few Bosnian Serbs and Croats did convert to Islam on their own.

Example: accused war criminal Radovan Karadzic is a Bosnian, but not a Bosniac. He's a Bisnian Serb.

(I've been to Sarajevo as a tourist, five years ago. That's where I learned all this stuff. Biden, who was demanding protection for the Bosnians back in 1992, definitely knows his stuff when it comes to the Balkans.)

Blame said...

Dario

"Dril, baby, drill is an energy plan?"

In the White House, not much of one.

In the Bedroom, well, it raises MY energy.

John said...

New Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire:

Obama 53
McCain 43

bpulliam said...

Brad-

U of Chicago and MIT are hardly bastions or right wing ideology so I'm not sure you've ever seen both sides.

Look, I can't stand GW but I don't buy the 8 more years thing.

I love how everyone with a PhD needs to vote for Obama because that's the educated choice. Having been at MIT you should know that just attending isn't enough. I have met PLENTY of idiots there as well at Harvard (including the law school).

I actually really like Obama at first but in the end he came up empty. Symbolism and vague generalities ... socialist iconography. Hate that more than I hate republican party.

Brad said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Graham said...

"johntfs said...
Does anyone think it a possibility that if Obama is elected he'd get her to be his Secretary of Energy?"

No chance. She's involved in a medium-sized scandal in which oil companies funded her supposed studies claiming that polar bears are not endangered.

Plus, she's come off as a pathological liar in this campaign, IMHO.

And finally, Obama does not like drama. Palin in the Cabinet = Über-drama that never ends.

pete alethophoros said...

Palin was terrible. I have a contrarian view. The pundits are saying she did enough to shore up the base and boost morale etc. etc. I disagree.

I think the undecided voter in New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida and Missouri, Nevada will see her performance for what it was; incoherent, inarticulate, repetitive and ignorant.

The swing voter isn't a moron. He or she probably did a little bit of debating at High School, or can remember seeing high school debates. They will know that Sarah didn't even match their High School standard.

I think her performance last night will silently have sunk the ticket. We'll see.

neil said...

brad said:

Obama is up almost 6 on the supertracker. Scroll right...
----

I'm talking about the little blue dots. Why the fall off yesterday in that figure?

Brad said...

Ya, the Chicago school of economics, true lefties. NOT!

You arguments are simply platitudes, no wonder you like Palin....

Darío said...

bpulliam, i don´t vote Obama and McCain but the Palin performance yesterday was horrible.
She didn´t answer any question of economic issues and in the energy issues she said drill, baby, drill.
Please americans, dont´vote like Latin America.

Real Joe said...

john said...
New Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire:

Obama 53
McCain 43


OMG...NOT GOOD :-(

* balls explode *

Real Joe said...

Good Morning !

Darío said...

bpulliam, the MIT are keynesian.

pete alethophoros said...

Palin was terrible. I have a contrarian view. The pundits are saying she did enough to shore up the base and boost morale and keep the election race alive etc. etc. I disagree.

I think the undecided voter in New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida and Missouri, Nevada will see her performance for what it was; incoherent, inarticulate, repetitive and ignorant.

The swing voter isn't a moron. He or she probably did a little bit of debating at High School, or can remember seeing high school debates, even if they quit high school to get a job. They will know that Sarah didn't even match their High School standard.

I think her performance last night will silently have sunk the ticket and confirmed people to vote for Obama, despite their cultural reservations about his race, ethnicity etc. Biden was an asset and looked every inch a traditional president in that debate.

Brad said...

Hi Joe!

bp needs a Real Joe tracker number so he can bury his head in false reality. Did you get that loan yet?

Brad said...

Hi Joe!

bp needs a Real Joe tracker number so he can bury his head in false reality. Did you get that loan yet?

Real Joe said...

darío said...
bpulliam, i don´t vote Obama and McCain


are you illegal or a Legal immigrant(not a citizen) ?

Darío said...

Who won the debate, Real Joe?.
You´re an open book.

boobot said...

bpulliam said...

Brad-

"U of Chicago and MIT are hardly bastions or right wing ideology so I'm not sure you've ever seen both sides."

Where the hell did this "U of Chicago is left wing" meme come from? Hello! Milton Friedman? The Chicago school? Hell, outside of Obama, Cass Sunstein and Martha Nussbaum the law school is probably the most consistently right-leaning top law school in the country.

Real Joe said...

Joe won the debate

:-(

she did ok but its not enough

Brad said...

Palin was terrible, it will not move polls. McCain is pretty much shot, the RNC better start playing defense in the Senate and give up on McCan't.

Brad said...

Palin was terrible, it will not move polls. McCain is pretty much shot, the RNC better start playing defense in the Senate and give up on McCan't.

Real Joe said...

brad said...
Hi Joe!

bp needs a Real Joe tracker number so he can bury his head in false reality. Did you get that loan yet?


Hi Brad

who is bp ??

Real Joe Daily Tracker was close due to the credit crisis

Andy JS said...

This new NH poll from Rasmussen with O+10 is the news the Obama camp has been waiting for.

That will put him over 270 EVs on a lot of polling website averages.

Cugel said...

Just as I thought months ago before Palin was picked and said after she was picked.

NOBODY really votes for VP! NOBODY. And this debate won't change many minds at all. Palin did fine. I expected she would "surpass expectations" since they were so low, but so what?

We've had the conventions and the VP debate and "Palin the game changer" just isn't going to do it for John McCain.

She helped him unite the right-wing base of his party but there simply aren't enough conservative Republicans to matter.

The idea that she was going to be this huge "rock star" who would storm the nation because of her idiotic "folksiness" was always absurd.

You can fool Republicans all the time but not the entire nation all the time!

Republicans can't get it through their heads that the MAJORITY of people see Sarah Palin and think "she's an idiot who's been stuffed with talking points she's spouting like a parrot."

In the end voters will make up their minds based on Obama and McCain.

McCain had 5 chances to change people's minds: 4 debates and the convention. Well Three of the five have come and gone and the nation prefers Obama by a wide margin.

It's starting to look like people's minds are made up and nothing is going to change that the rest of the way. Tonight's debate certainly isn't going to put McCain back on top.

Real Joe said...



fellow republicans

this race is going away from us

where are the 527's ??

Real Joe said...

guys

any other new polls(except Ras NH) ?

Darío said...

Real Joe, i´m a citizen, but i don´t vote the two candidates.

Darío said...

Not now Joe, the only is NH.

Real Joe said...

thanks dario

Real Joe said...

darío said...
Real Joe, i´m a citizen, but i don´t vote the two candidates.


so your not voting or voting for nader ?

EmonOkari said...

I like Joe Biden. He 'connects' with me.

ReasonableRejection said...

Not strictly related, but some of you may also be thinking along these lines.

IF Obama wins Georgia (ok, a long shot) and NC, he'll get every state over 15 EVs except Texas. The Republicans then become a rural (ok, non-urban) party only. I wonder what impact that might have? I know they already lose almost every big city (does anyone have stats for vote count in top 20 cities? And top 100?), with obvious exceptions in Texas (and maybe Indianapolis? Phoenix? i know i'm missing somewhere). This may, however, not be good for the Republicans, as it would give Texas disproportionate power in the party. Besides the obvious problem of having little clout in the cities.

Oh - and even if Obama loses Georgia (and NC), he gets all states with EVs over 16.

eve said...

Palin made that comment about more debates so she could get in her talking point of "no msm filter". Other's in the campaign are using those words, too. Weak attempt to blame the Couric interview disaster on editing. Blaming the media plays well to their base.

Republicans pretend they are the party of individual responsibility, but they are always the first to blame someone else.

Darío said...

SurveyUSA MN:

Obama 46
McCain 47

Real Joe said...

darío said...
SurveyUSA MN:

Obama 46
McCain 47


i saw that poll last night :-)

Darío said...

Yes, but only by 1 is not good for McCain.
The other Opinion Research (Obama +11) and Rasmussen (Obama +8) are favorable for Obama.

Real Joe said...

emonokari said...
I like Joe Biden. He 'connects' with me.


liberals connect with liberals

Real Joe said...

darío said...
Yes, but only by 1 is not good for McCain.


we have to take even +1 :-(

this is really depressing

where are the 527's ??

i have a cheque ready

EmonOkari said...

liberals connect with liberals

I was a lifelong registered republican...until this year. Please try again.

eve said...

bryen, great points of debate at 6:22.


I think that while the GOP may be relieved that Palin wasn't as bad as expected, she wasn't good. Besides showing her lack of knowledge about her own candidate, she was not likable. Biden was clearly more statesman like, more knowledgeable, more likable, and he controlled the message.

This debate will fade quickly but the very good impression Obama and Biden have conveyed in these first debates may persuade a few voters.

Real Joe said...

emonokari said...

I was a lifelong registered republican...until this year. Please try again.


WoW !

then good luck to you

you just gave up on republican values ?

what made you switch ?

EmonOkari said...

what made you switch?

Bush.

Real Joe said...

i understand how you feel emonokari

:-(

bryen193 said...

Dkos/R2000 tracker

Obama +11

Yesterday's sample had Obama +12, his best single day so far.

Andy JS said...

That Minnesota poll is strange.

In the debate Palin kept using the wrong words -speaking using bad grammar, which is different from just being folksy. I'm surprised no-one has said much about that.

The only states with 10+ EVs that are certain to go to the GOP are: Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona.

rosidae said...

Nothing Palin said stuck out in my mind other than she was very focused on the less-educated voters and seemed to dumb down everyone else. Biden had some very focused points that stick out in my head. Like what he said about McCain's health plan, that he'd tax the $12,000 an employer pays and give $5,000 to the American. That struck a chord with me personally, and Biden did a very good job with defining himself from Palin when Palin just did okay with that. I was very uncomfortable with their agreement about same-sex marriage, but I guess it's an important point to make to the average American. I guess GLBT is still viewed as a significant minority in this country. I'm surprised by the network's reactions though, I haven't heard many intelligent responses. Some consultants were good to point out that Biden didn't let Palin take away the Main St vote. I hope... a lot of things happen. I'm still crossing my fingers.

Mule Rider said...

@MATT J.H.

Barack Obama has a remarkable ability to talk, talk, talk without saying anything. He fills time with nonsense better than any politician I have ever heard.

I must say that he is likable though. He may be dumber than Clinton but he's cute, talks like an 18 year old beach bum, and he's a left wing nut all rolled into one. How did this man get this close to President of the United States?

God help us if he ever gets there.



I can play that game too....and nothing I said above is inaccurate.

However, on a serious note, I think last night was a train wreck for Sarah Palin and the Rep ticket. She is not ready to be president. As much as I hate to say it, Obama/Biden may be the lesser of two evils.

TBender said...

Palin completely misplayed the "mom at the kitchen table" bit and Biden was ready for it with his own personal story. Also a good touch to drop in that his wealth is tied to his house -- just like most of middle class America.

The expanding the role of the VP will not set well with her own party -- especially the smaller government/faux-Libertarians. It reeks of the last 8 years of ignoring the Constitution.

jdk said...

VP Debate - neither lost it. Next.

Considerations for Nov. outcome:

A. rope a dope
B. rope a dope only works if you have a longer reach

Darío said...

She can´t answer the economic question.

EmonOkari said...

The expanding the role of the VP will not set well with her own party

Nor the rest of America. Seldom has a politician been so blatant about pushing for sweeping legislative power BEFORE they even get elected (to the Executive Branch). I'm beginning to wonder if this VP nominee has ever even read the Constitution, much less studied it.

PA John said...

So can I get consensus that if Mr. Magoo picked Mitt Romney instead of Mayor McMooseburger, his campaign would be more viable than it is today?

Sure "the base" wouldn't be nearly as energized, but I think that tickeyit would look a hell of a lot more viable than where things are today.

OTF said...

Rasmussen NH

Obama 53
McCain 43

OUCH!!!

Antmatic said...

Rasmussen
O-49
M-43

Kind of a strange 2 point drop for both candidates.

OTF said...

Battleground National Poll:

Obama 50
McCain 43

takestock said...

The MN poll had McCain ahead by one, but had Obama winning the 50+ year olds 50% to 43%. Strange. On 9/12 it was McCain winning them 49-45 as you'd expect, but losing overall 47-49. Hmmm.

Chi said...

Bryen193 said, "Dkos/R2000 tracker

Obama +11

Yesterday's sample had Obama +12, his best single day so far."

No, there's no change in today's numbers from yesterday's.

stevie314159 said...

I think RAS today is really 51-44. Looks like Morning video update just reported without leaners for a change (wonder why?), but daily snapshot table shows w/leaners as 51-44, no change from yesterday.

fred said...

MN is strange. Still looking good though, VA, NC, FL all can replace MN in the win Obama column.

I expect MN will go for BO. Interesting fact - 80% of registered voters actually vote in MN.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Who won the debate, Real Joe?.
You´re an open book."

More like a comic book.

EmonOkari said...

So can I get consensus that if Mr. Magoo picked Mitt Romney instead of Mayor McMooseburger, his campaign would be more viable than it is today?

Sure "the base" wouldn't be nearly as energized, but I think that tickeyit would look a hell of a lot more viable than where things are today.


I agree. In light of the economic issues dominating the election (as opposed to what McCain's camp said would be, 'An election about personalities'), I'd say Mitt gave the ticket much more credibility. A Romney VP selection probably has them a bit closer right now. Especially since the 'Experience' argument never would have been taken off the table; thus allowing McCain/Romney to drive that home all the way to the end. Now every time McCain opens his mouth about 'experience', he just sounds silly.

Romney was a solid, safe choice. Even with the evangelical 'base', for they would have eventually come around to the ticket. Given the Democratic alternative, they always do.

Antmatic said...

Minnesota either polls really close (SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, Big10) or really big for Obama (CNN, Rasmussen). This is a state where I think pollsters may not know what to do. Given how Obama dominated the caucuses here, I think he is in good shape.

Christopher said...

Strange by Rasmussen. How do both candidates drop by two? At least Obama keeps the margin, but wierd. Does everyone pretend they are undecided before a debate?