Do you spook easily?
Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.
Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.
There are a couple of significant problems with this.
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.
Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).
So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.
10.31.2008
Trick or Treat
@ 10:55 PM
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827 comments
Sometimes I wonder how Drudge got a favorable reputation.
Hold us Nate we're scared!
Can I just tell you guys how good it feels to get out there and volunteer for Obama. Wow! 4 more days of work and we're there. Be a part of history, not just a spectator! Volunteer today!!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/statepages
I was sitting at work reading TPM and the guy way higher than me on the food chain was reading drudge... I thought it was pretty telling.
I think I could be a better pollster than Zogby by just guessing numbers.
Thank God you're with us tonight, Nate. How would we sleep tonight without your calming insights!
"If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Communist Party USA ticket of Barack Hussein Obama and Joe Biden, or the Republican ticket of John Patriot McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?"
McCain - 50
Hussein - 45
Other - 2
Undecided - 3
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
@ Thompson
He doesn't have a favorable reputation (even from the right), he is just known as the first place to have the latest headlines (and even that won't be true once this election ends, he has lost all of his credibility).
It really is great how responsive you are, and I for one am very grateful. I wonder if Democrats will ever get over their neuroses or if it's deep in the DNA.
Here's what McCain is going to win:
ALL Bush states + New Hampshire + Pennsylvania + Wisconsin + New Jersey + Minnesota + Maine's 2nd district = 347 EV MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!
Thanks again for being a voice of reason, Nate. I can't believe how easily some Democrats get spooked...and how confident some Republicans are getting when their candidate is being trounced across the nation. The race isn't close. It has been close for weeks. McCain needs a miracle, not a single-day Zogby outlier result showing a minuscule lead in a national tracker with a small sample size.
I liked the use of the word "naughty". Thanks for reassuring us, being on here alllllllll day has some of us creating scenarios and worrying about nonsense. The 5th can't get here soon enough. I can't keep up with all the comments, but my husband hates that I spend hours trying, I did catch a 538 shout out on the Daily Show on Wed I think it was...
sciat-sciat biatch no one wants to hear your mouth Ever Again! I tried, I am tired.
Relax people, if Nate has taught you anything.
Just take a pill and tomorrow GOTV.
Nate, what's your costume? How do you dress as a MOE?
GOBAMA!!!
I imagine winning the election will help with the neuroses, as you say.
Democrats can ignore 20 good polls if there is an outlier to worry about. It's really stupid.
Matt Drudge deserves a TRICK --> in the form of an egg right in his face.
God I hate that moron.
Will 4 years of a competent Obama administration rid this country of (most of) these republican windbags and their adoring fans?
answer = halloween night, you need to use party weighting since you not gonna get many obama supporters on the phone... also u need to weight in the ages...etc..so if u don't get many younger voters picking up the phone..u might have to weight it...
My simple win, to quote a horrendous TV ad, is to simply take my cues from the old Gallup Daily. They have a nice wigget now and when the squiggles move, I am made happy -- as today -- up two for Barack and down one for McCain. I figure if Gallup gets within 5 among registered voters it is time for some angst. For the rest or the polls, since I believe Texas will go Barack, I don't place much stock in them, though I do have a soft spot for PPP.
At times like this, you should always remember this.
Nate you are a godsend. That is all I have to say.
Who and what are people emailing Nate with regarding Zogby? Is RWC and fake Pete Kent sending retardograms about how McCain is going to surge to victory, or are there really people concerned about a 5 day tracker that interviews like 250/day, or some other tiny sample size.
Euckies. What someone says if they see McCain without his pants on. "Euckies! I think I am blind now!"
Wait, this was a ONE DAY sample? I thought he meant the average was going to be an M+1...
Wow, then this is complete and useless garbage, as Nate says. The MoE is likely extremely large, and according to Zogby he has only 400 people...
I think this speaks for itself.
LOL.
Obama goes from +7 to -1 in a day ? PLEASE! Zogby is a joke. There's no way there is that amount of swing with 4 days to go. And it should tell you something that drudge gets the news first; he's not even a reporter, he just links to articles he likes lol.
McCain's people can't even spell their "hero general" right. Got a RNC fundraising letter today, dated "Tuesday Morning".
That by itself is funny: Tuesday Morning is an overstock chain store (and incidentally, there's one in our Golden, Colorado strip mall right next to the Obama campaign's third Golden office space which opens tomorrow morning for the final push, having outgrown two other spaces.)
Anywaste:
McCain's letter says: ... to ensure that our nation builds on the success we have achieved in Iraq under the leadership of General David Petreaus...
Sorry, but considering moveon.org is also maligned in this letter the only alternate spelling to the correct one (PETRAEUS) I accept is BETRAYUS.
Drudge is nothing but an inbred racist and his readership is dropping by the day. He's a joke and Zogby has no credibility. I bet by 2012 most people won't even bother publishing Zogby polls.
As Virginia Satir said "Never forget to breathe."
Hehehe, I love that laconic "There are a couple of significant problems with this."
Why is it that this Drudge Report site and the Huffington post look like websites from about 1995?
achythic - of the feeling of having a herring bone stuck in your throat, or reading the Drudge Report.
Zogby's methodology is zogby's methodology. It is also complete defensible.
What is not defensible however, are how declarative he in his write-ups.
Awh noooah poow ickle RightwingKentroll you thought you had sommit!
libs surge Bradley libtards [tm]
Yeah and some of yous' need to recall the poll see-saw of 2004 again. Kerry would have cut of his arm for a 7%-11% lead 3 days left.
PeteKent, I admire your tremendous confidence. It really is impressive. I certainly hope you are backing up your words with action by heading over to Intrade and staking a big pot of money on your confident predictions. At the moment, McCain is at a mere 16 on Intrade. If you wre to put down a modest amount - say $16K? - you could walk away with 100 grand!! This is of course assuming you have the nerve. C'mon Pete! Show us you really believe what you post! We promise we won't hot you up for a loan or make you buy us all beers when you win.
@Seretse...
Amen to both points.
WV: eorout...what everyone should be doing tonight about the Zogby poll.
Stupid lib, you fail to realize your messiah is going to LOSE! HAHAHAHA!!
Actually, if McCain won Tuesday by one percent, I suspect it wouldn't be enough to make him president given the numbers that have voted today. I continue to think that McCain's strength has a tendency to rise in state where already is doing well.
Speaking of intrade, look at that McCain SURGE and Hussein DROP. Haha! Guess more people think Zogby is right than you thought!!!!
Stupid libs.
Four more days and we can lap up the tears of people who allow themselves to be fooled by things like this.
I can't believe I threw in the towel yesterday... but I was never expecting a REAGAN COMEBACK!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!
Can we amend the constitution to ban John Zogby?
And Matt Drudge?
Nate, what does it feel like coddling a bunch of adults on the internet over numbers? My guess is your faith in humanity wanes by the day.
OK here cheer you kids up with a game of "spot the loony"
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/31/213621/51
clue; the loonies are the ones IN the seats, oh just ignore the 1000s of empty ones and play the game!
:D
Nate, you are awesome but I think you are being too diplomatic about Zogby being a perennial moron about political polling. Exit polling has Obama massively ahead with banked early votes everywhere. Zogby's model probably predicts Black and youth turnout far less than have already turned out and will have turned out. His methodology sucks; one's better off following the predictions of RCP as you have noted than the polling of Zogby, as he just plain sucks.
@PeteKent...
I know it's Halloween, but Reagan is coming back?!
WV: mulcard...nuff said about you.
Nate, thank you.
Nate, what does it feel like coddling a bunch of adults on the internet over numbers? My guess is your faith in humanity wanes by the day.
It's because of Gore and Kerry. Now Dems freak out from the numbers...NO MATTER WHAT. While the republicans are confident...NO MATTER WHAT. And the right wing trolls like petekent and rwc probably seriously frighten some people (pathetic, I know).
The roles will be reversed after this election, though.
Anyone see this from Chuck Todd at NBC?
"Nebraska: For the first time since they changed their law to allow electoral votes to be split, it appears there's a decent chance that Nebraska could split its five electoral votes, 4-1. Obama's chances to carry the state's 2nd District look very good, in fact so good we may move the district to "toss-up" status. Not only is Obama doing well in the district, Democrats have a decent shot at knocking off the incumbent Republican in the district, Lee Terry."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27478547/page/3/
"Wait, this was a ONE DAY sample? I thought he meant the average was going to be an M+1..."
Actually, it could even be a half-day sample. Drudge explicitly mentions "Friday night". As Nate notes, Zogby actually splits his "days" of his 3-day tracker, so day 3 is actually late Thursday and early Friday. So it could be as little as one-sixth of Zogby's total interviews for the tracker result that he's going to release tonight.
What is that, 125 people? What's the MoE on that, 10%?
I'm surprised people still panic about something Drudge posts just because he puts it in a huge red headline. He's made it clear he will select any outlier he can to create a shock and generate some hits for his site while ignoring all evidence to the contrary.
CA Hawkeye said...
As Virginia Satir said "Never forget to breathe."
oh,my. Hadn't thought of her for eons. Thanks for the memory.
Omg, Belledame222 is here? (((belle)))
I really don't get all the poll overreaction anyway; surely the darling histogram and trendline are enough to soothe your sleep, even tonight?
(I should've dressed as a moonbat today, for real).
wv; unverst, adj. meaning not knowledgable; as in, Sarah Palin is unverst in foreign policy.
Matt Drudge has gone off the deep end with his positive reporting of McCain, and only negative reporting on Obama. Drudge lost what little respect he had when he ran with the phony story of the girl who got pummelled by a "big black man" and carved a backwards "B" on her face.
simmer down, simmer down...
from POLITICAL WIRE
@ http://politicalwire.com/
'Simulation Shows Obama Will Win'
"Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.
Adams has developed a simulation model that involves running 50 million simulated state-by-state races, using the late-October poll results for each state. He ran his simulation 50 million times to allow him to calculate all the different combinations of electoral votes that might result, even long shots. While the number of possible outcomes is very large, the result is always the same. Obama receives 270 or more electoral votes 99.98% of the time. Using intervals of electoral vote results, there is a 95 percent chance that the outcome will have Obama winning between 303 and 381 electoral votes."
FWIW - I would take those odds to the bank
"Four more days and we can lap up the tears of people who allow themselves to be fooled by things like this."
___________________________________
I have no interest whatsoever in any body fluid of Pete Kent and his ilk. However, on Weds. I expect to type "Scoreboard" with some regularity.
Getioely. I got nothing.
With a H/T to my bro Moby, I'm not worried at all.
Nate, Was that first link in this post suppose to be a sort of a horror-themed rick-roll? :) No I didn't click it. I've never gone to that guy's site. I don't ever intend to. It's sort of like the National Enquirer, only people still seem to talk about Drudge for some reason. *shrug*
@eve...
Yes, an oldie but a goodie.
@David said...
Anyone see this from Chuck Todd at NBC?...
Beautiful...and people were questioning why OB sunk 100K in advertising in Omaha a couple or weeks back, or whenever that was?
Wow, you' re right PeteKent, I hadn't noticed that preciitous drop for Obama on Intrade - from 84 to 82.9. And yes, McCain is up from 16 to 17. All the more reason why you should head over to Intrade NOW and get in while you can still get those great odds. You might want to even think about liquidating that 401K or your kid's college fund and staking it all. You clearly know who's going to win the election - by a landslide - so it really would be almost criminally negligent for you not to wager responsibly.
Nate, you are truly the comforter-in-chief. Maybe Prez Obama will have a special cabinet post for you so he can trot you out every time there's a crisis.
I'm enjoying this week. Obama is WAY ahead in the polls AND way ahead in early voting. McCain has no ground game. Obama has the best ground game ever.
So those of you who want to be all worried and nervous -- go ahead and enjoy being nervous. As for me, my wv is resteri. I think it means it's time to go to bed.
No, I said McCain is going to COME BACK
LIKE REAGAN DID IN 1980
HE CRUSHED THAT COMMUNIST CARTER!!!! HAHAHAHAHA!!! AT THE LAST MINUTE!!! JUST LIKE MCCAIN WILL!!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks Nate.
I hadn't noticed that preciitous drop for Obama on Intrade - from 84 to 82.9.
It's back up to 84.
inkstain how soft are the Omaha tables on Poker Star?
I'm guessing you're a strict odds kind of player.
Get Out the Vote! Even if you live in the reddest state in the Union!
New LA poll, M+3!!! Yup, statistical tie in frekin' Louisiana!
An exclusive new WWL-TV statewide poll shows the contest for president may be closer than many had predicted among Louisiana voters. In the telephone survey of 500 registered voters, conducted by pollster Ed Renwick, Republican Senator John McCain earns 43 percent of the vote, while Democrat Senator Barack Obama receives 40 percent. Renwick said that amounts to a statistical tie, since the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
"It's closer than I thought it would be," said Renwick, adding that the higher the turnout, the worse it might be for McCain. "
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/this_is_getting_ridiculous.php
dcm in fl-
Does Nate know you are cheating on him with another statistician?
You dog.
Asplatie. A condition of having a very flat butt.
Uh-oh. Pete, hurry! Every second wasted is money lost on Intrade!
That Louisiana poll was fake.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!! REAGAN 2.0!!!!!
praise jesus you exist. i almost had a heart attack.
I don't know how to use intrade, or I'd bet my entire fortune on McCain getting 400 EVS!!!!
dcm in fl, what is that nonsense? Another person running simulations? BLASPHEMY.
>> Will 4 years of a competent Obama administration rid this country of (most of) these republican windbags and their adoring fans?
No, because regurgitating stuff that is already written for you and mixing it with rumour you pull from thin air beats working for a living.
I wish I had enough self-discipline just to stop looking at all these polls and political websites for the next three days. I'm glad I early voted, because I may have a stroke before Tuesday.
Petekent - I even gave you a linky. "Tis a real poll! LA going blue!
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/this_is_getting_ridiculous.php
Hey PeteKent - What state do you live in?
Hey Nate - Is Don Imus compiling your Word Verification entries? Mine is "sillyho".
>I don't know how to use intrade, or I'd bet my entire fortune on McCain getting 400 EVS!!!
It's easy, Pete, especially for a super-smart guy like you. Really, how will you be able to face your wife and kids when they realize you lost $100,000 through your inaction?
I live in the most patriotic part of the country -- the Oklahoma Panhandle.
God bless America!!
obsessed said...
"Hey PeteKunt - What state do you live in?"
Vegetative.
Tell me how to do it and I'll bet EVERYTHING I HAVE!!!
Stupid lib.
This is clearly a Halloween prank by Drudge.
secret word: prowns
PRWnED
Zogby.com says nothing about this. Sludge is such a joke.
Can any one tell me how the polls take the "youth" vote into account? For example, what would FL look like if they don't actually turn out to vote?
Not that I'm worried about FL, I'm just curious..
The odds at Iowa Electronic Markets have stalled in the last week or so:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm
Compare the above chart with the equivalent chart for 2004:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
In the last few days before the 2004 election, the price of a contract for Kerry to win dropped to zero, and for Bush went to $1.00.
The same thing happened in 2000:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/graphs/pres00_WTA.gif
So what’s happening now? Can anyone explain this?
McCain will win FLORIDA. He will STEAL it just like BUSH did in 2000!
And you libs will cry! hahahah!
PeteKent, you're hilarious!
Good job trolling, my man. I think you had some of these people worried for a little while.
Look at this word verification:
condi
PeteKent said...
Speaking of intrade, look at that McCain SURGE and Hussein DROP. Haha! Guess more people think Zogby is right than you thought!!!!
Stupid libs.
I love PeteKent. He's obviously having a great time playing a FReeper troll.
Right, BHO on Intrade dropped from 85.6 to 84 in 36 hours and Mc "surged" from 15.4 to 16.6 in the same time.
TIGHTENING!!!!11
wv: dewoozo. How I feel after reading fake FReep trolls.
a couple of things:
1) Intrade has been creeping up - but notice what happened around 10:00pm tonight when Drudge released Zogby's numbers
2) People talking about Haloween polling by Zogby - STOP!. His polling for tomorrow's report stopped at 5:00pm. I didn't take my kids out until well after that.
3) Zogby may be bad..but we all have a tendens to ignore the polls when we don't like him.
Before you slam me - I am a huge Obama fan, I am not a worry wart, and love this site. But, I think we get a lot of group think in here - and that's bad (ask John Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs about that).
"mamagina said...
This is clearly a Halloween prank by Drudge.
I'd wondered that as well—except the little excerpt he had from Zogby sounded just so . . . Zogby.
WV: scora
Video on the Louisiana is tied poll!
http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html
Wait, I'm a stupoid lib because YOU can't figure out how to place a bet on Intrade? I thought you conservatives believed in personal responsiblity.
OK, Pete, I'll show you how to place a wager on Intrade, but you'll have to agree to split you winings with me, 50-50.
But here's a hint, I'll give it to you for free:
http://www.intrade.com
Hurry!!
I'm not trolling. Are you libs so delusional? Looking through your libtard tinted glasses to see this election is MCCAIN'S? Your messiah's time in the spotlight is OVER! He's just like Paris!
@petekent
err, go to https://www.intrade.com/
1) Press the Signup button to create an account
2) Press the Trade button to buy McCain stock.
3) Rub our noses in your new-found wealth on Nov 5th.
Shouldn't be that hard to figure out
captain mnemo:
You seem to be mistaking 'the last few days' for the actual end of the election on those charts.
John McCain is losing and he will lose BIG on Tuesday because this election is about something that \John McCain knows almost NOTHING about. Follow this link to learn more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
I've been following the early vote stats at elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html. Am I wrong in thinking that the national totals are likely going to be slightly lower (as a percentage of registered voters) than 2004?
"3) Zogby may be bad..but we all have a tendens to ignore the polls when we don't like him."
We aren't talking about a poll. We are talking about a leak of a fraction of a poll.
I don't know if this was written by Drudge or Zogby, but, it seems kinda weird and somewhat self-contradictory, given that today's 3-day average was 7...
"Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling."
On this being a Halloween prank - i was just kidding (i'm mamagina - was accidentally logged in as the wife).
But guys. Really. We must stop freaking out.
"I'm not trolling. Are you libs so delusional? Looking through your libtard tinted glasses to see this election is MCCAIN'S? Your messiah's time in the spotlight is OVER! He's just like Paris!"
Yes, you are trolling, PeteKent. Look at the inflections: "libs" and "messiah" are only words that I've ever heard said by a troll.
I've trolled with the best of them, PeteKent. You're not so great, but you took good advantage of the situation.
You deserve credit for that.
Hey Petekent, intrade even has an "intrade 101" video linked at the top left of the site. It's pretty simple.
and all of you who engage in actual conversation with petekent look a lil' silly.
Drudge is the biggest douche on the planet.
Peter, I know you're not actually being serious, but fine I'll take your bait. Reagan analogy doesn't work. In order for that strategy to work, one's running mate has to be a former deputy director of the CIA. See then that CIA director can manufacture an Iranian hostage crisis that radically turns the trajectory of the polls in a very quick fashion. The only thing Sarah Palin could pull off is...well...she could buy some clothes and rattle off some folksy wisdom. Will that help? Eh...probably not.
I'm not a troll, you stupid lib.
Go to my blog if you don't believe me.
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
Drudge leaks for the GOP, we all know this - he's not the issue.
I think a good deal of us had the feeling Zogby would spring something like this in the final days of the race. He's an attention whore - and so, his polling that will soon be released will drive the talking points for Hannity, Tucker Bounds, and the remaining Hitler Youth that are pulling hard for McCain.
Zogby will have to try to restore his reputation quickly, so by Monday morning's poll release, he'll show Obama opening up his ususal 5 point lead.
The thing about Zogby's polling that really really is irritating is how much he loves to point out the massive shifting in demographic groups on a day to day basis. I mean, there is no way Independents can favor Obama by 15 points on day 1 but by day two McCain leads Indies by 4 only to be followed by day 3 polling showing Obama up again with Indies by 11, etc. etc.
I only follow Zogby because he's the first to release numbers each day and he does it at about 10PM each night (I live in N. California).
Again, Zogby is an attention whore -- on election day in 2004 he released in a stunning turnaround that Kerry was going to win CO and VA and take over 300 electoral votes -- genius prediction, eh?!?!?!?!
"and all of you who engage in actual conversation with petekent look a lil' silly."
Who says I'm not trolling?
MCCAIN WILL WIN IN A MUDSLIDE!
Hey, anyone notice that Drudge slightly changed the wording to now say that the 3 day average is remaining steady? So it seems the thought that someone had about this 48-47 result maybe being only 1/6th of the average could be accurate. Funny as well...Zogby's site is only one page now and it is yesterday's press release.
huh....post errored out. try this again.
This doesn't even remotely bother me. Obama would LIKE OH. McCain NEEDS OH. How if these results were for PA then I would be crapping bricks. If Obama looses PA the game would be virtually over IMHO.
First off, Zogby is a bad pollster I don't trust. Why?
Kerry 2004, and also the California state poll that had Obama up 10 over Hil in the primary. He has been awful in state polling.
He is terrible.
Also, he has 400 people for a national tracker split over 2 days.
Every poll except a slight tip in Ras showed Obama gaining today.But, half of Zogby's sample was taken on Thursday and half on Friday.
On Thursday, there was little shift towards McCain. Now, all of a sudden on a half day of polling sample,it's 48-47?
Sure there is MOE, but the results don't seem plausible.
I am attuned to Ras and Gallup, and watch the trend lines on Kos. That is the best way to go.
Petey Boy:
"Tell me how to do it and I'll bet EVERYTHING I HAVE!!!"
It just so happens Intrade has Getting Started instructions right here:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
CNN on early voting - tis good for BHO!
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/31/early.voting/index.html
I suspect Dems will be a lot less ready to jump at every Regressive talking point when we actually see going into an election with a lead in the polls that the Dem wins. After two PEs in a row getting screwed, you start to get gun-shy.
shooo.... thank you. i apparently did the same thing. i went to drudge, saw the headline, came directly here hoping you had already debunked it. ahhhh.... this site ROCKS!!! :)
Yeah, I don't know how his 3 day can stay even. If he did pull a +1M result in Day 1, figuring Day 2 and Day 3 look static at somewhere around +7 O, his three day moving average would have to be basically around +4.5 O. I guess we'll see when he puts it up.
If the moving average doesn't move, then I don't know what to tell you, he's using math from the planet Zutar or something.
He had a big move in the moving average last weekend, off I think basically a statisically even day, Drudge was all over that one too.
No good pollster would EVER discuss 200 person sampple taken during the day when only retirees are home.
Zogby sucks, this is worse than his interactive polling BS
Someone already mentioned it, but the key part of the story is that the lead has remained steady.
Which means one of two things:
-as they pointed out, the "today" part means just this afternoon, 1/6th of the sample.
- Or simply that these samples are indeed that volatile, and that todays numbers replace numbers that were equally good for McCain, which means that this piece of news is not news at all.
Wait a second. How could the three-day average "remain steady" if McCain outpolled Obama in the single night sample? Makes no sense.
I wonder if the powers that be at Reuters have any problem with Zogby leaking to Drudge. Kind of defeats the purpose of having your proprietary polling if you're just going to let it leak out on Sludge, doesn't it?
Just watched Cleese on Olbermann, classic.
Well it is Halloween night and the Trolls or should I say TROLL is our in force.
Nut cases should be ignored - so if your like me and your just a Democrat - who voted against George Bush in 2004 - and now are suffering post election tramatic disorder PETD for short - get over it move on with your life and go and knock on some doors - drive some people to the polls or just volunteer your time for your candidate.
Honestly though I keep waiting for an October Surprise from the Bush administration - I just keep forgetting that these are the people who couldn't organize themselves out of a paper bag.
So relax folks - at least after you have spent a day - working for the good guys.
Shameless Google Link Bait
The Ten Commandments of Goddess Palin I:
I: Thou shalt not elect commies.
II: Thou shalt not elect baby killers.
III: Thou shalt not elect a man whose name is Hussein.
IV: Thou shalt not elect a terrorist.
V: Thou shalt not elect a Muslim.
VI: Thou shalt not elect a risky person.
VII: Thou shalt not elect a Commiecrat.
VIII: Thou shalt not elect homosexuality promoters.
IX: Thou shalt not elect a black person.
X: Thou shalt always vote for the Republican Party. Country first! God bless America!!
And CNN just made ND, frekin' ND, a toss-up. Obama is within 4 in AZ and MT and is polling even in IN -- the fact that it's October 31 and McCain has not put away his HOME STATE should make you all stop worrying about what Zogby's one day polling shows.
If Obama wins PA and IA and NM and NV as he is heavily favored to do then he's at 269 EV's -- and that's his FLOOR!!
SO MUCH FOR THAT 2-3 POINT BOUNCE YOU GUYS PROJECTED FROM THAT PROPAGANDA THE OTHER NIGHT.
My neighbor, an undecided voter may I add, said it best: It was like an infomercial, it looked and sounded really good, but you still question whether or not it will work.
Needless to say, she did not move to Obama at all, she moved to MCCAIN! She got little detail she told me!!
Nate or the other brilliant minds can correct me if I am wrong, but:
the MoE is 2.9% for Zogby. You need to multiply by 2 to get the maximum affect (-2.9 for Obama, +2.9 for McCain) which results in six points.
Therefore, it's easy to claim the poll is now within the MoE when it was at 7 yesterday. Dropping 1% will get you to the extreme edge of MoE.
The thing about Zogby's polling that really really is irritating is how much he loves to point out the massive shifting in demographic groups on a day to day basis. I mean, there is no way Independents can favor Obama by 15 points on day 1 but by day two McCain leads Indies by 4 only to be followed by day 3 polling showing Obama up again with Indies by 11, etc. etc.
On the other hand, it's little different from what folks writing about the stock market do. Of course, that's not a point in Zogby's favor, I'm just suggesting that that's sort of the tradition it is coming out of: the data is there to be interpreted by golly; the data will be interpreted.
wv: proutdor
Michael-
McCain getting one insane old woamn in a red state - wow - that is news!
I live in Ann Arbor: Obama Central of Michigan.
Allow me to compare Zogby's crappy poll with something I can do in the next hour:
I'll go to the club called Necto (it's gay night there) and take a non-stratified poll of 500 people.
I'll bet it will turn out to be:
Obama: 90%
McCain: 0.0001%
Lou Reed/David Bowie: 5%
McLovin: 3.9998%
Nader: 1%
Just as reliable as Zogby.
Pete, whi are you still here? You need to get over to Intrade, now!
http://www.intrade.com
Wait a second...
I apologize if someone has asked this already...
How does Zogby's three-day average remain steady given the 48-47 one-day polling sample?
johnny said...
First off, Zogby is a bad pollster I don't trust. Why?
Kerry 2004, and also the California state poll that had Obama up 10 over Hil in the primary. He has been awful in state polling.
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama *was* up 10 points in CA on the date of the Primary. Ironically, he had already lost due to early voting.
DRUDGE gets the inside scoop on Zogby several hours early each night it seems
Zogby will post make it available @ 1 AM ET
BUT the comments that are cut & pasted on Drudge tonight are lacking context [of course]
"ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but..."
The key phrase here is that the 3 day tracker average holds steady - so no worries !!!
on the other hand, new #'s up now online for the PA Morning Call tracker
@ http://www.mcall.com/
graphic is at the bottom LEFT of the page...
O52 M44 O+8 in the 5 day tracker average [that is M+2 from yesterday]
M44 is the highest Mac has ever had in the 5 weeks+ of this tracker
O52 is right at Obama's average for the past month
tracker history @ http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/
so it appears that Obama's base support is not slipping - but UNDs in PA may be trending toward Mac at the last minute
as long as Obama stays @ 50%+ for another 4 days, no worries IMHO
Michael that is a powerful anecdote.
MCCAIN SURGE!!!!
justsomeguy---speak well of the retired
@Josh...
You mean Rachel Maddow won't get any votes from the PUMAs there? :)
I don't want to bet my fortune yet. First I need to see if that Zogby poll isn't a halloween trick.
Zogby just released his tracker! BHO by 7!
Pete, what do you say now?
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 50.1%, McCain 43.1%
Race stuck in neutral
@michael, does she not have internet or is she just too lazy to go to the web site as the infomercial suggested?
JUSTSOMEGUY.
A Red State that Obama is campaigning in this weekend.
A Red State that Clinton won handily in 1996.
OHIO!!!
Hey Michael, go try and wrap your little brain around the Gallup numbers today. Two can play that game when talking about a "bounce" or lack of one.
Zogby has been all over the place. Too many of his polls have been massive outliers, and he doesn't even have a consistent lean that can be corrected.
I sometimes wonder why Zogby is included at all at 538.
You're a lying loser lib, justsomeguy.
Released: 10-31-2008
Subscribers can login here: https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/index2.cfm
Next Release: 11-01-08, 1:00AM
UTICA, New York—The race for President appeared to slip into neutral Thursday, as support for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain moved only slightly in the last 24 hours, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%.
Undecideds or those who support other candidates increased slightly to 6.8% of the sample.
Even in the demographic subgroups, the race changed almost not at all. Including Election Day, there are five days left in the race.
I'm predicting there will be one tracker with a McCain lead by Election day--a full sample, not a one day result.
Half a guess--It'll be Zogby!
Zogby linky:
http://www.zogby.com/main.htm
wtf? so drudge was lying?
...
wow fakekent has a blog, big fucking wow, a blog, gulp. again, wow.
Daily Kossacks are on the case too bs-ing this waste of a Friday evening's 'poll' Look Zogby did all those shite interactive polls that had McCain winning British fucking Columbia probably, they were so shit and Nate pretty much debunked them as steaming piles of interactive crud.
I guess the thinking is for the freepies; aieee if we can't manufacture an OBL dvd, then libtards this will do.
Erm no, not really.
IGNORE PETEKENT
this is not a legitimate poster, this one is a 'sock puppet' who infests this site doing a bad parody of the real neo-con Pete [the Parrot]Kent
please folks, quit falling for 'his' sad, pathetic, juvenile games & stop feeding/encouraging him
DNFTT
justsomeguy that was last nights result..
that's yesterday's. Zogby polls assbackwards and sends his polls out at 1AM give or take. Actually pretty smart, gets them out for the morning news and potential shock value.
But, if it does stay at +7 O, I'm mystified. I'm expecting +4.5 O give or take.
moo4dougie said...
Wait a second...
I apologize if someone has asked this already...
How does Zogby's three-day average remain steady given the 48-47 one-day polling sample?
Where did you see that the three day average would remain steady?
Zogby making declarative statements about the race after polling 200 people as a sample for 150 Million people is simply malpractice.
People actually emailed Nate about this? Jesus...what concern freaks.
Zogby alerts Drudge every time there's a slither of info that bites into Obama's obvious landslide trajectory. That's all we need to know about Zogby's methodology to put it in perspective.
That Drudge headline gave me a good laugh :-)
DCM in FL:
That's pretty much the long and short of it. Obama's PA numbers are holding steady at around 51-53%; pretty much the only way McCain can win there is by first grabbing up all of the undecideds and then by grabbing maybe 4-5% worth of Obama voters.
The spread is tightening, sure, but Obama's numbers are solid... solid as Barack.
OOPS! Looks like Zogby changed his page and putup a this lead, but that is today's release. Next release in one hour.
Sorry kids....
Ahhhhh, Pete...you might need to lay off the shine-tainted Kool-Aid a bit.
There's still a small chance that McCain might pull it out of his backside -- right about the chance that it will snow in South Louisiana....in August..the day after a Katrina-like hurricane rakes New Orleans...the day before Edwin Edwards is broken out of his jail cell and reenstated as governor of this state -- but if he gets anymore than the bare minimum needed to win (like, say, 273), then I will bow my head down to you. Right after I eat my computer.
As for Sludge mining Zogby...well, what did you expect from the both of them?? Sludge is just playing his role as Repub booster, and Zogby is...well, Zogby. If they have any more inside info that the other pollsters and Nate and Sean don't have that makes their picks more correct than the consensus, then why not share it with the rest of them...and us??
Oh..and Pete...I really don't think that you really want to bring Paris Hilton into this again. I'm still remembering how much she really kicked your guy's ass the last time (remember the "celebrity" commercial??).
Fortunately, the madness will cease right around 10:00 PM EST on Tuesday, when Colorado puts Obama over the top. At least, for the majority of decent Americans....I can't speak for the wingnut crowd.
Anthony
"I wonder if the powers that be at Reuters have any problem with Zogby leaking to Drudge. Kind of defeats the purpose of having your proprietary polling if you're just going to let it leak out on Sludge, doesn't it?"
C-SPAN is also tied in with Zogby. They value their neutrality a great deal. Do they want to be associated with a pollster who leaks to benefit one side over the other?
JUSTSOMEGUY.
Congratulations. You just posted TODAY'S poll numbers. In 1:05 minutes, you can post SATURDAY'S!!!
Bowie is on the ballot? I am voting for Ziggy Stardust baby!
Shermon. Shermon, I agree that there is no good reason to vote for McCain.
For months Nate has been my Oracle of Personal Daily Stress, this is working well for me, and it costs me nothing. In fact, the McCain campaign seems to be paying handsomely for my daily slack.
Never sweat the small stuff (until Nate says it's okay), and it's all small stuff (until Nate says it isn't).
catathen - Owwww! Catathen my thunnh! Leggo rotthn cath!
HAHAHAHAHA
STUPID LIB!!!!!
YOU HAD ME WORRIED THERE FOR A SEC! BUT THE MCCAIN SURGE CONTINUES!!!
I think that McCain's chances are significantly higher than most people care to admit. I know everyone is excited to put an end to the nightmare of the past eight years, but remember that at various points in 2000 (tightening polls, Florida initially called for Gore) and 2004 (exit polls favoring Kerry comfortably), Democrats celebrated prematurely as well.
Between polling averages having a history of being off by a few percent from actual results, plenty of undecideds who are almost inevitably going to lean heavily towards McCain, voting irregularities that tend to favour Republican candidates, and the unpredictability of youth and minority turnout on election day, I wouldn't be surprised if some battleground states will turn out to be 3-5% more red than most polls indicate at this point. This will especially be so if something with national security implications happens (or is manufactured) before Tuesday, or the Republican machine manages to nurture the seeds of doubt they've been planting recently over the weekend with new allegations.
I think Obama has shown a lack of judgment in openly thinking about his cabinet and investing in states like Arizona, when defending Florida, Ohio and especially Pennsylvania would essentially guarantee a win. He has also been way too passive in rebutting McCain over his recent ludicrous allegations of socialism, radicalism, associations with extremists, inexperience and tax increases for the middle class, as well as the good old liberal media bias BS.
Obama is still the favorite, and I will be happy if my doubts prove to be baseless. I will happily come back here and be laughed at for my paranoia. But if things start to go wrong Tuesday night, remember what I said. And put just a little bit of blame on yourself for trusting that after the shady things that happened in 2000 and 2004, things would be magically flawless this time around simply because the Democrats are more excited about their candidate.
seretse - it's been updated on the Sludge site.
I suspect that Zogs was getting calls from people who thought his 3-day average tomorrow would show a one point McCain lead and asked Sludge to make a correction. But old Matt doesn't seem to have worded it very well.
Obama is not going to revisit PA and I don't think Biden is going either. Seems to me that they are pretty confident that it's in the bag there.
Pete, Pete, Pete, you said it was going to be a landslide. Really, are you that faint of heart now? You don't have to bet a fortune, why not just $16K? It could even be as little as $100, but it would be financially irresponsible to bet so little when you are so supremely confident in McCain's landslide.
Why does anyone read Drudge?
I get why some of the media does it - he is their cue to the spin of the day. But everyone else going there just serves to validate the invalid. STOP IT!!
(That said, I accidentally hit your link to Drudge in this report. Won't happen again, I promise.)
I was going to write up a similar harangue against Zogby, but that would have been redundant.
Seretse his poll is based on 3 days of polling--one day is not going to make that big of a difference.
ovegie trying to attract a vegetable
Thanks Michael-
I caught that, now shut up. Zogby changed his page to very drudge looking piese of shit and it confused my midnight mind.
sereste,
It says it on Drudge:
ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling.
"The three-day average holds steady..."
Come again?
JEN
oops, you got me there cheatin' on NATE w/another stat geek...
I will blame it on SEAN due to his post last night 'On the Road to Nevada'...
Guess I took SEAN's lede to heart when he wrote about Las Vegas by saying...
"GAMBLY AND WHORISH..."
my bad...
word - 'spill'
need a sippy cup...
"Bowie is on the ballot? I am voting for Ziggy Stardust baby!
Shermon. Shermon, I agree that there is no good reason to vote for McCain."
I tried to start a grassroots campaign for the Lou Reed/ David Bowie Ticket.
It didn't work out too well. I even came up with a great slogan:
DAVID BOWIE LIVES!
Zogby's weekend numbers have always been good for McCain, this is likely to be no different.
I'm confident in McCain's landslide because of Zogby. Yesterday I lost faith.
And Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC, CBS, Hotline, and Marist are ALL in the tank for Obama...part of the liberal media.
Only Zogby is reliable.
How does Zogby's three-day average remain steady given the 48-47 one-day polling sample?
As some have already pointed out, it's probably only 1/6 of a poll. Last night's numbers in other polls were very positive for Obama. So if the same was true for Zogby, good numbers last night for Obama and good numbers today for McCain might easily equal no change for the three-day average.
wv: belchcp—a Zogby poll dump
PeteKent.
Your parents are/were siblings, right?
"And Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC, CBS, Hotline, and Marist are ALL in the tank for Obama...part of the liberal media.
Only Zogby is reliable."
Now I know you are trolling.
Bravo, good sir!
Now, my friend PeteKent, do you have a recipe for Baked Rigatoni I could borrow?
1/6 of a poll TAKEN DURING THE DAY!
Thanks, Nate.
But I'm not so concerned about Zogby (though pissed at his willingness to feed a meat-troll like Drudge partial info), as I am about the Morning Call tracker in PA. That 5-point contraction in two days is a lot for a 5-day tracker. And, if we are supposed to be concerned about the state polls, welllll.....
Sorry for the re-post:
ATTN: PorridgeGun and mc9cain
mc9cain said...
Lorne Michaels of SNL has NOT donated a penny to Obama. But he has donated $2,300 to John McCain and a bunch to Chris Dodd and $2,300 to Al Franken.
http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/neighbors.php?type=name&lname=Michaels&fname=Lorne
Your source is incorrect.
Lorne Michaels donated the full $4,600 to Barack Obama this year. (source)
Yes, he did donate $2,300 to McCain's primary run and $4,600 to Dodd's primary and general election ... in early 2007.
Really, who can fault the guy for donating to McCain then? That was back when McCain seemed like the only Republican with a conscience, character, honesty, and so forth. Not the cheap right-wing shill he's made himself into today.
Seriously, you should check things more thoroughly before tossing this sort of statement around. You don't want to make a caphrema (WV) out of yourself. =)
www.electoral-vote.com
"Several organizations are collecting data on early voting, which is possible in about 30 states this year. One of them is EVIC at Reed College in Oregon. In North Carolina, almost 1 million Democrats have already voted, but only half a million Republicans. In Georgia, 1.4 million people (25% of the electorate) have already voted, with black turnout especially high (33% have already voted). Data for other states are available on the EVIC Website.
George Mason University also has a Website with early voting data. It reports that 20 million people have already voted nationwide.
CNN has an interactive map showing the number of early votes and absentee votes already cast. In New Mexico, for example, 194,000 Democrats and 110,000 Republicans have already voted. In another swing state, Nevada, the data are available for only two counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). In these two combined, 202,000 Democrats and 119,00 Republicans have already voted.
In Florida, blacks and elderly voters are turning out in droves, but younger voters aren't showing up yet. In the first nine days of voting, 1.4 million votes have been cast in the Sunshine state. About 54% were Democrats and 30% were Republicans even though Democrats comprise 42% of the registered voters and 36% of the registered voters are Republicans. The high Democratic turnout in Florida is not surprising. Obama has been pouring money into the state, with the weekly bill for TV ads running $5 million and 400 paid staff on the ground.
"
Yeah, as others are pointing out, the 3 day average will not budge a whole lot. What the idiot did though, was produce this number that should filter through by monday and make the race look like it is neck and neck.
>Only Zogby is reliable.
You mean today only Zogby only matches your fervent wishes and dreams.
You disappoint me Pete. What happened to the landslide you were crowing about just a few minutes ago?
And speaking of my home state: WHOA!!
Three point differential with 5 days to go?? From Renwick/Loyola/WWL-TV?? That's a pretty conservative outlet for polling...and considering that the consensus was that McSame was coasting here by double digits just two weeks ago, that's almost as stunning as McCain getting challenged in Arizona.
Damn you, Katrina...if you hadn't wiped out the Ninth Ward and New Orleans, Louisiana might have already flipped Obama's way.
As it is, if he pulls this one out and flips LA, what's to say he really runs the table and gets every Southern state other than OK, AL, TN, KY, and SC?? 400 EV's might then be the freakin' floor rather than the ceiling, then.
Oh...and hi there, Belle!!!! Fancy seeing you here!!! -- waves --
Anthony
oh bless you, you beautiful man.
WHY WAS OBAMA IN IOWA TODAY IF HE WAS UP 13 POINTS?
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 50.1%, McCain 43.1%
Race stuck in neutral
So apparently, Zogby had a M+1 day (or M+2, or even) on Tuesday drop out to get replaced with M+1 on Friday. Funny, I don't recall Zogby or Drudge creaming their pants over the tracker on Tuesday.
WRT Intrade, if Obama is only 84% odds to win, I may just go over there and take those odds myself. I can make myself a nice little 15% return!
ahhh some calming numbers from North Carolina
PRES
McCain 45 Obama 47
(already voted): McCain 40 Obama 52
SEN
Dole 45 Hagan 50
(already voted): Dole 40 Hagan 58
GOV
Perdue 49 McCrory 44
(already voted): Perdue 55, McCrory 37
Thanks for all your feedback... In the past, I interpreted Zogby's "one-day" language as referring to 1/3 of the sample (the night + the next day...) From what y'all are saying, maybe that really does mean "the next day" -- that is, 1/6 of the sample.
If that is the case, I really need to chill.
Geez, though. Zogby's incompetence is now simply bordering on unethical.
@michael:
WHY WAS OBAMA IN IOWA TODAY IF HE WAS UP 13 POINTS?
According to Plouffe this morning, it was "to pad his lead".
>WHY WAS OBAMA IN IOWA TODAY IF HE WAS UP 13 POINTS?
Sayin' thanks to the people who helped get it all started.
the whack job just said they have the strategies to win the wars in iraq and iran.. wait whaaaa http://www.foxnews.com/video/index.html?playerId=videolandingpage&streamingFormat=FLASH&referralObject=3174372&referralPlaylistId=df5603c3d11ca9a023b0070cfc5f297e279fd3a7
Michael - caps lock is on the left of your keyboard, right above the shift key.
@Michael, he wanted to see his kids and IA was close enough for a late rally. He got live coverage for it on CNN.
WHY WAS OBAMA IN IOWA TODAY IF HE WAS UP 13 POINTS?
It was a quick stop on his way home to Chicago to spend Halloween with his daughters.
>SEN
Dole 45 Hagan 50
(already voted): Dole 40 Hagan 5
Man, that's sweet.
game:
this has to move the average. Unless there's a statistical even coming off or if there's a +13-15 O that came right before or after the +1 M.
It's been static at +6-7 O and the numbers that bumped him off the lows in the poll last weekend are gone.
It's gotta be +4-4.5 O or there's another outlier either coming off in favor of M, or next to this one favoring O.
Syrlacc Daggerstryke:
... plenty of undecideds who are almost inevitably going to lean heavily towards McCain
Damn you! Now I am dreading the inevitable heaviness!!! It's so inevitable it's completely unprecedented in recent voting history and so heavy it's invisible to a top-notch statistician like Nate.
I like FakeKent much more than PeteKent. So much entertainment, in such rapid sequence. PeteKent forces me to scroll 3 or 4 screenfuls with each post; it disrupts my comment trolling.
nam vet joe from jersey said...
Seretse his poll is based on 3 days of polling--one day is not going to make that big of a difference.
I have never once said otherwise.
I actually find those of you that accuse Zogby of intentionally cooking numbers to be, well, fools.
What is foolish about his poll is not his methodology, but the fact that his write up after half a sample declares without question, a significantly changed dynamic in the race.
I suppose that on earth, there had to be space for at least one flowery pollster.
@PeteKent:
Only Zogby is reliable.
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml
Petekent -- what keeps you going besides a delusional tendency to deny reality. I'm not sure if you're the real PeteKent, given that he spouts stupid but deeply ideological shit in a way that is well thought out, no matter how crazy. You, sockpuppet petekent, even with your blog, you talk a lot more like a mule rider sock puppet or perhaps even HE. I like your HE persona much better.
Reagan revolution is DEAD.
--average "remain steady" if McCain outpolled Obama in the single night sample? Makes no sense--.
If the new day has exactly the same results as the one it is replacing, then the three day total would remain the same
Ooops. Meant to call Drudge a "meta-troll", not a "meat-troll", though from the rumors I've heard.........
Has there been any indication yet that young voters are at all showing up in early voting? Or is this once again going to be an election with the young vote being a no show.
If you can't get enough of Nate Silver, listen to his performance today on KQED-fm from San Francisco, where you will hear him discuss some very pollish sausages.
http://www.kqed.org/epArchive/R810310900
backdoor to the full Zogby page if interested @
http://www.zogby.com/index.cfm
update @ 1 am ET
It's pretty bad when even LIBmussen shows a 4 point race!
They're all trying to demoralize the real americans like me.
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