FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tonight

10.07.2008

Tonight

by Nate Silver @ 6:22 PM

In what might be the second worst kept secret of all time, I will be on the Colbert Report tonight.

We will also, of course, be liveblogging the debate.

213 comments

Marc said...: Awesome! Will watch it today for sure.; October 7, 2008 6:28 PM
Richard said...: Wow! Congrats, have a great time!; October 7, 2008 6:28 PM
Robert said...: That is fun. Look out, he may try to tie you to terrorists. Have fun and try to be as loose as you can.; October 7, 2008 6:28 PM
HAKKIN£N!!!!!!!!!!!!! said...: beef; October 7, 2008 6:29 PM
pHaestus said...: Dammit I normally watch Daily Show and Colbert Report the next day w/ wife after dinner via DVR. Now I'm going to have to choose between seeing it in real time before my wife, or spoiling it by reading this site's comments.; October 7, 2008 6:29 PM
Nicole78 said...: Can't wait to see you on Colbert! Have fun with that and blogging tonight.; October 7, 2008 6:30 PM
mia said...: I actually did "LOL" at that 'worst kept secret' link. Zing, Mr. Silver.; October 7, 2008 6:30 PM
De Montfort said...: "polliness"?; October 7, 2008 6:32 PM
Matt W said...: Have fun with it...

and make us all proud!; October 7, 2008 6:33 PM
Real Joe said...: markedman said...
here's some good news for REAL JOE

North Carolina
SurveyUSA
McCain 49, Obama 46

McCain +3

good news :-)

how are the internals ?; October 7, 2008 6:33 PM
waitwhat said...: Two tips, PLEASE:

- try not to say "you know" so much.
- colbert is one of the most difficult interviewers in the business! godspeed to you, nate.; October 7, 2008 6:33 PM
Custos said...: Congratulations!; October 7, 2008 6:34 PM
Christopher said...: Ahhhh!!!! CAN'T WAIT! :-); October 7, 2008 6:35 PM
Meg said...: Loved your link to the #1 worst kept secret! lol

Looking forward to seeing you on the show! :); October 7, 2008 6:37 PM
fred said...: Colbert Report! Well, I guess if you can't get the real guy, then go for the imitator. Call me when you get on O'Reilly....

LOL! No Great!!!!!!! Congrats!; October 7, 2008 6:38 PM
thisniss said...: Nate = One of The Heroes!!; October 7, 2008 6:38 PM
Bryan said...: This is clearly way better than appearing on Olbermann et al; October 7, 2008 6:38 PM
mc9cain said...: Awesome. Too many of these guest appearances though and you'll end up with a big head like Keith O. :); October 7, 2008 6:40 PM
fred said...: Linky to the Survey USA NC poll? I can't fing it on their site; October 7, 2008 6:40 PM
Jon said...: You should let Colbert know that you'll skew the polls in his favor, if he were to run for President in 2012.; October 7, 2008 6:41 PM
Mark Irish said...: +3 for McCain in NC?

Considering the last time they polled NC it was McCain +20, I will gladly take a 17 point swing. This is only good news for Obama.; October 7, 2008 6:41 PM
markedman said...: i hate when readers give "tips" to nate about how to act on TV

shut up

let him do his thing; October 7, 2008 6:41 PM
Max said...: Way to go, man! I'm glad to see SOMEBODY getting some recognition for doing their job well.

Be sure to post a clip here, because I work early and can not stay up to watch this.; October 7, 2008 6:41 PM
markedman said...: I Just want consistent +numbers for Obama in NC; October 7, 2008 6:42 PM
SNED said...: Wait, Clay Aiken is gay!?!

Oh and totally poll Missouri.; October 7, 2008 6:42 PM
Tim said...: Real Joe, I'm honestly curious as to why you're pro-McCain outside of the fact that you'll benefit from his tax plan.

I mean, you don't seem crazy, so why would you trust him and Palin with our country--It can't just be for that.; October 7, 2008 6:43 PM
neumann103 said...: Nate:

Caught you on MSNBC last night. Totally unexpected.

As "waitwhat" said tryto step on the "you knows". As I am sure 'you know' this is easier said than done.

My high school debating tip. I was undercut by a tendency to fill empty space with "ummmmm". I forced myself to just pause. Every time i caught myself about to say "uummmm". Silence.

Works for me unless I am really really tired or in a ton of pain.; October 7, 2008 6:43 PM
fred said...: LINK to the NC poll please?; October 7, 2008 6:43 PM
FB said...: You have so TOTALLY hit the big time now! Olberman, Rather . . . they were just warm up acts! Welcome to the Colbert Nation! My husband and I will stay up just to see you!; October 7, 2008 6:44 PM
gougef said...: Real Joe said...

markedman said...
here's some good news for REAL JOE

North Carolina
SurveyUSA
McCain 49, Obama 46

McCain +3

good news :-)

how are the internals ?
----------------------------------

Wasn't this the one that was M+20 last time?

S-USA has a hard time surveying states with a high AA turnout, per primary performance in the spring.; October 7, 2008 6:46 PM
Francis said...: RCP has the SUSA poll up.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8aada59-7fd2-4374-bbe2-df789901eca8; October 7, 2008 6:46 PM
Reid said...: Nate -- Colbert is a sit-down interview behind a desk. I dare you to do it with no pants.; October 7, 2008 6:46 PM
Francis said...: RCP also has another massive PA number from Ras, O+13; October 7, 2008 6:46 PM
Mark Irish said...: NC Poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8aada59-7fd2-4374-bbe2-df789901eca8

Like I said, I will gladly take a 17 point swing. NC seems to be like MN, where SurveyUsa favors McCain?; October 7, 2008 6:46 PM
Francis said...: "NC seems to be like MN, where SurveyUsa favors McCain?"

All the African-American voters in MN are throwing SUSA off.; October 7, 2008 6:47 PM
Jorah McPalin said...: I'd like to see you trying to answer those tough questions without the filter, even, of the mainstream media (wink) kiiiind of telling viewers what they've just heard, in terms of who gets extra credit for watching it also.; October 7, 2008 6:49 PM
fred said...: This post has been removed by the author.; October 7, 2008 6:51 PM
OTF said...: I check every poll internals and
SUSA has no clue what they are doing in NC. In August they had Dem+13 party ID which directly correlates to actual registration numbers. The +20 McCain poll and this one they have Dem+5 party ID.

With the correct part ID Obama is +3 to 4 in NC; October 7, 2008 6:51 PM
Alison B said...: Nate,

You'll be great.

Also - I love your site and am counting on you're being right. (Like 99% of the other 200,000 538 junkies who check in every day). That said -- we all understand, right, that Nate runs probablistic scenarios? Right everyone?? We will *not* have a group Nate-bashing if JM wins. Just kinda worried about Nate (and not just his reputation) if the election goes the other way. Which it won't. I hope.; October 7, 2008 6:54 PM
no mercy rules said...: mad props if you somehow squeeze in "reality has a liberal bias" or "statistics have a liberal bias"; October 7, 2008 6:54 PM
Eric said...: anyone have new registration data from Ohio?

Also the SUSA NC poll with McCain up 49-46 has a Dem +5 Voter ID. The real number in NC is about +15 for Dems. Often times in elections a chunk of Dems vote Pub, but the accurate number should be represented in the polls. Dems get about 80% of the Dem vote. Pubs about 90% of the Pub vote. If you flip 10% fromPub to Dem as VOter ID, you'd get a shift of about 7 points in the poll, even if you cut out a chunk as indpendents, you'd still have probably a 5 point move. Obam isprobably up in NC by about 3 points IMO.; October 7, 2008 6:57 PM
Will said...: Good luck, neighbor! Congratulations!; October 7, 2008 6:59 PM
eve said...: Have fun on Colbert, Nate.

So what's the secret about Brett?; October 7, 2008 7:01 PM
Sedi said...: "SUSA has no clue what they are doing in NC. In August they had Dem+13 party ID which directly correlates to actual registration numbers. The +20 McCain poll and this one they have Dem+5 party ID."

That's because SUSA doesn't weight for party ID, they just weight for other demographic variables and then figure that party ID differences will all balance out in the end. That's one of the reasons why SUSA produces some wacky results. It's just a different polling philosophy than, say, Rasmussen.; October 7, 2008 7:01 PM
Eric said...: This is probably a question specifically for Nate, but if anyone else can answer, great.

SUSA is reputed as a great pollster and yet their internals oftentimes have what I'd call fatal flaws within them. In other words, if they don't poll the right demographics or voter ID, the poll is not useful. This happens too often with thme IMO. If this is the case, then why are they so reputable? What am I missing? Even the idea of historic accuracy seems kind of unplausible. Their polls have been all over the place this cycle.; October 7, 2008 7:03 PM
BillBurkhart said...: Hello Everyone,
Voter registration ended yesterday here in Indiana. In Allen County, where Fort Wayne is located, there was an increase of 12,000 new voters since the May primary. That brings the total of registered voters in this county to 255,000. The total of newly registered voters in this county is over 23,000 according to today’s Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, a large increase. This increase can be attributed solely to the massive GOTV effort mounted by a well organized Obama Campaign.

Early voting began yesterday in Indiana. I proudly cast my ballot today for Senator Obama today. There was a long line at the City-County Building for early voting. The woman who greeted each person in the line told me that there had been a long line ever since voting began. The line had never let up. This is a state that was won by George Bush by over 20%. This is a state that has not voted for a Democrat since 1964. This county, Allen County, is the congressional seat that was occupied by Dan Quayle, a Republican stronghold. I spoke with many people in the line today. Every one, to the person, was casting their ballot for Senator Obama. To see people standing in a line to vote for Senator Obama is very encouraging sign for Senator Obama. I truly believe Indiana will be BLUE for the first time in 44 years.

Bill; October 7, 2008 7:04 PM
eve said...: alison, bite your tongue. McCain is not going to win.

And no, we will not blame or credit Nate for the election outcome. He is fabulous but he doesn't control the electorate nor the campaigns.; October 7, 2008 7:04 PM
assmole said...: Bet your sweet ass you'll be liveblogging the debate.; October 7, 2008 7:07 PM
Ziggurat said...: Clay Aiken is gay?; October 7, 2008 7:10 PM
Jim said...: To put the SUSA NC poll into a bit of context, they also have Libby Dole at +1. Neither this result, nor their result on the presidential question have much grounding in reality.; October 7, 2008 7:11 PM
Eric said...: Bill Burkhart,

Great, here's to you.

Indiana had less than 2.5 million voters in 2004. Apparently there are over 500,000 newly registered voters. That is an incredible % increase. Probably the biggest in the country. They're primarily Dems. McCain has ignored the state the whole campaign. A chunk of the state is in Chicago's media market. Selzer may have it right. Indiana might go blue. You have any thoughts on where the numbers are going to come from there? Bush actually won the state by 500,000 votes last time.; October 7, 2008 7:12 PM
Gina said...: Nate ... wear a tie. Your mom would like it.; October 7, 2008 7:14 PM
Eric said...: Jim said...
To put the SUSA NC poll into a bit of context, they also have Libby Dole at +1. Neither this result, nor their result on the presidential question have much grounding in reality.

Who would've thought Libby Dole would get beat out for her seat, instead of retiring? It's the end of the Pub party as we know it. Good riddance NeoCon GOP, come back as a better party and we'll talk.; October 7, 2008 7:14 PM
assmole said...: Gina, I think he should wear clothes as well...not just a tie, please.; October 7, 2008 7:15 PM
OTF said...: CO:

Voter Registration numbers as of Sept 30th.

112,000 new registrations september
Dems 64,000
Repub 25,000
Ind 33,000

2004 Repub +177,000
As os July Repub +78,000
End of Sept Repub +39,000; October 7, 2008 7:16 PM
Louis said...: You're worst kept secret has just broke my heart because you're so CUTE. So much for hope... :(

I'm really looking forward to Colbert, you will kick some ass!

Linda; October 7, 2008 7:16 PM
assmole said...: Clay Aiken will disagree with me I know.; October 7, 2008 7:16 PM
Christopher said...: You know, at the beginning of the election cycle I never thought I would say this, but... I really trust Rasmussen. They don't seem to fluctuate to rapidly and have a relatively reliable model. Even if they have a slight R lean, I'd rather watch them then most pollsters.; October 7, 2008 7:16 PM
2much2lose said...: Cool. Wear an Obama shirt!; October 7, 2008 7:18 PM
Note2Self said...: Why does Gov. Palin not like black people?

"While meeting with Black leaders concerning the absence of any African Americans on her staff, Gov. Palin responded that she doesn't have to hire any Blacks and was not intending to hire any."

Gwendolyn Alexander, President
African American Historical Society of Alaska
Alaska Juneteenth Celebration

http://electronicvillage.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-and-african-americans-in.html; October 7, 2008 7:21 PM
Eric said...: OTF,

You're a fellow Dem, with seemingly objective opinions. You think Colorado's registration numbers are good enough for Obama to flip the state? That Denver Post poll that had it 44-44 a couple days ago had particularly interesting internals. The demographics by region actually seemed really accurate. I'm happy to see the last two polls there at O+6, but still a little reserved in my optimism there. Pubs still have a registration advantage. As a tipping point, it feels less likely than it once did. To me anyway.; October 7, 2008 7:21 PM
Randall said...: Listen, if at all possible, be kind of drunk. Trust me.; October 7, 2008 7:21 PM
Eric said...: Note2Self said...
Why does Gov. Palin not like black people?

"While meeting with Black leaders concerning the absence of any African Americans on her staff, Gov. Palin responded that she doesn't have to hire any Blacks and was not intending to hire any."

Gwendolyn Alexander, President
African American Historical Society of Alaska
Alaska Juneteenth Celebration

http://electronicvillage.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palin-and-african-americans-in.html

Perhaps, she'd never seen one before? Just kidding (or not); October 7, 2008 7:22 PM
2much2lose said...: pHaestus said...

Dammit I normally watch Daily Show and Colbert Report the next day w/ wife after dinner via DVR. Now I'm going to have to choose between seeing it in real time before my wife, or spoiling it by reading this site's comments.

Just watch it and pretend you didn't and watch it again! lol; October 7, 2008 7:22 PM
Real Joe said...: tim said...
Real Joe, I'm honestly curious as to why you're pro-McCain outside of the fact that you'll benefit from his tax plan.

I mean, you don't seem crazy, so why would you trust him and Palin with our country--It can't just be for that.

my vote will not change anything

look at all these polls; October 7, 2008 7:22 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: I think that everyone is so sure that Obama will win, that Nate should show 100% for Obama and take the site down. In fact, maybe they should cancel the debate. Maybe Obama should debate William Ayers and Reverend Jeramiah Wright.; October 7, 2008 7:23 PM
mlaw said...: Have fun. I've been a fan of this site from the sidelines. Don't make everyone to happy and complacent because we need everyone to come out and VOTE ! GOOD LUCK AND HAVE FUN !; October 7, 2008 7:24 PM
Jonathon said...: So does this mean we are going to be driving a government car like this video suggests?

http://www.clicktobroadcast.tv/videos/64

I certainly hope not...; October 7, 2008 7:25 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: Obama's economic plan: (see website)

Spend another on trillion dollars on wastefull programs.

Raise taxed on businesses with the intention of killing more jobs.

Sounds like the plan that put us into the depression.; October 7, 2008 7:25 PM
Real Joe said...: This post has been removed by the author.; October 7, 2008 7:25 PM
Real Joe said...: Alaska has a very small number of blacks

Wasilla, Alaska

Blacks 0.59%
(2000); October 7, 2008 7:26 PM
Ziggurat said...: To those giving Nate advice for the show, Colbert is not a live show. It has already been taped.; October 7, 2008 7:26 PM
euqubud said...: Convince Stephen that your regression model guarantees him the presidency in 2016.; October 7, 2008 7:26 PM
PorridgeGun said...: Stephen Colbert is a mad genius.; October 7, 2008 7:27 PM
BillBurkhart said...: Eric, you said,

"Indiana had less than 2.5 million voters in 2004. Apparently there are over 500,000 newly registered voters. That is an incredible % increase. Probably the biggest in the country. They're primarily Dems. McCain has ignored the state the whole campaign. A chunk of the state is in Chicago's media market. Selzer may have it right. Indiana might go blue. You have any thoughts on where the numbers are going to come from there? Bush actually won the state by 500,000 votes last time."

Your post said that there are over 500,000 newly registered voters in Indiana. You are correct. However, I read in the paper two weeks ago that the number could swell to 750,000 by the time all the new registrations get processed. While I am no expert in this matter, I know that the Obama campaign has worked from one end of this county to the other to get people registered. And the same holds true for all the other Obama field offices in this state. There seemed to have been a "semi-permanent" voter registration effort at the local campus of Indiana University - Purdue University @ Fort Wayne. Same holds true for all campuses around the state. But I think the biggest bounce here comes from people just like me. I always vote, but this is the first time in YEARS that my vote may actually count for something. For those of us Democrats in deep red states, we all know the sense of frustration when your state is constantly called "red" within ten seconds of the polls closing. It almost makes me think I just wasted time and gas going bothering to vote. SO, the fact that in this election, our vote may count, has actually made people register by the tens of thousands so they can be part of this history making election. And I would imagine these people who have just registered to vote in this election have been living all over this state, but have just been too disgusted with Indiana's "redness" to bother voting since 1964!; October 7, 2008 7:28 PM
Marc said...: I've asked this before, but does anyone know why CNN says their "poll of polls" has NO sampling error? I know enough about stats to know that's pure bullshit, but can anyone tell me what kind of reasoning they might be using? And they don't mean "we don't know what the MOE is", they mean "it doesn't have one".; October 7, 2008 7:28 PM
Pierre said...: Ziggurat said...

"To those giving Nate advice for the show, Colbert is not a live show. It has already been taped."

Your truthiness will not be tolerated!; October 7, 2008 7:29 PM
dkan71 said...: 538 Nate on the Colbert Report. That's like chocolate and peanut butter - two great tastes that taste great together. I can't wait to check it out.; October 7, 2008 7:29 PM
fred said...: Sarah Palin - racism good, unless it is an African witch doctor calling spirits to make me (oh, I mean my campaign) money; October 7, 2008 7:31 PM
hurn0003 said...: Real Joe said...

"Alaska has a very small number of blacks

Wasilla, Alaska

Blacks 0.59%
(2000)"

Yes because Alaska=Wasilla, great logic there champ.

Biggest city Anchorage is about 6% black.; October 7, 2008 7:31 PM
OTF said...: eric,

Bush won CO by 99,500 votes with a 177,000 Repub reg advantage now it's Repub +39,000. They lost 138,000 which more than the margin of victory. If Obama wins Indies which are low 30's as portin of of CO electorate he wins the state. Currently Obama is winning Indies.; October 7, 2008 7:32 PM
fred said...: marc-

a polls of polls has no error because it is nearly impossible to determine. But, I could be worng, in fact I am, it is impossible.; October 7, 2008 7:33 PM
Guancous said...: Nate better stay on his toes. Here's video of Colbert at the 2006 White House Correspondent's Dinner. There's also a link to Rich Little at the 2007 dinner. Maybe they'll get Hannah Montana for this year.; October 7, 2008 7:33 PM
Vince said...: eve said...

Have fun on Colbert, Nate.

So what's the secret about Brett?

Brett is clearly revealing his true identity as Clay Aiken, duh!; October 7, 2008 7:34 PM
smoo said...: Oh man. Now you're going to be all popular and stuff and forget about us.; October 7, 2008 7:35 PM
Lenore said...: Nate, you media slut! Honestly, don't let them change you. Stick with the old interview jacket you wore to chat with Rather. And feel free to 'um' and 'ah' as much as you need to. Colbert likes smart guys, so I'm not worried aboutcha.

Here's an idea: bring a slide projector. And I agree that pants should be optional.

I'm counting on your live blogging. Last week it was the only thing that kept me from taking a skillet and bashing the TV's little head in.; October 7, 2008 7:36 PM
Sean said...: Jack-be-Cranky tonight. It'll be ok. For the rest of us I mean.

Your boy and his sidebitch are pretty fucked though.; October 7, 2008 7:36 PM
Eric said...: Anyone watching Chris Matthews on MSNBC? He can't find any McCain supporters. NONE. ZERO. ZIPPO. NADA.

I understand, MSNBC is fairly liberal, but normally they have about 60% Dems and 40% Pubs in their crowds. He's in Nashville, there's 100s of people behind him and he can't find any Pubs. I think that's a bit of sign of where we stand right now.; October 7, 2008 7:38 PM
assmole said...: Pierre and ziggurat should come out of Clay Aiken's closet.; October 7, 2008 7:38 PM
Eric said...: BillBurkhart said...

Indiana has been Red since '64, vote doesn't count, etc...

I feel your pain, I'm in Texas.; October 7, 2008 7:39 PM
Real Joe said...: hurn0003 said...
Real Joe said...

"Alaska has a very small number of blacks

Wasilla, Alaska

Blacks 0.59%
(2000)"

Yes because Alaska=Wasilla, great logic there champ.

Biggest city Anchorage is about 6% black.

Hurn

Sarah is from Wasilla, Alaska; October 7, 2008 7:40 PM
Eric said...: Good call on Colorado. 138,000 registration gain. Lost by 99,500 in 2004. Obama is a better candidate than Kerry was. I feel you. Colorado shall be blue. Boulder, Denver, and Arapahoe gimme some love.; October 7, 2008 7:41 PM
fred said...: Vote counts this year in IN! Work harder in TX!; October 7, 2008 7:41 PM
Bill P. said...: The poll of polls has no MOE because it's simply an averaging of existing polls. An average of a defined set of numbers cannot have any MOE by definition.; October 7, 2008 7:42 PM
Pierre said...: assmole said...

"Pierre and ziggurat should come out of Clay Aiken's closet."

As long as I'm the lucky one...

But, seriously, I'm looking forward to Sean and Nate's insta-blogging tonight. Last two debates I had to DVR but my addiction forced me to refresh this site every minute for updates.

Yes, this probably qualifies as a problem addiction...; October 7, 2008 7:43 PM
Real Joe said...: Robert Gibbs (Obama Communications Director) says Obama is ready to match McCain if McCain gets tough Tuesday night:

“If people want to get down in the mud, we’re prepared to get dirty.”; October 7, 2008 7:44 PM
Eric said...: fred said...
Vote counts this year in IN! Work harder in TX!

White folks, (I am one) are too close-minded here in Texas. There are plenty that are not, but as a group they're waaaaay too conservative. I've lived in two of the bluest cities in the state, Austin and Houston. They're still too red or me. The whole Philly and Pittsburgh with Alabama in- between, sort of applies here except we don't have a city as Blue as Philly.; October 7, 2008 7:45 PM
Nigel said...: Here's an interesting tidbit - if off topic.

A house in my neighborhood (Charlotte, NC) had all Republican signs out on their lawn (gov, Senate, house) including McCain/Palin x2, today they were gone, just the ones for Gov, Senate and house remain. I doubt highly it was theft, but the timing is interesting considering the removal/theft coincided with the ultra negative pivot by the McCain camp. I think this is really going to back fire on McCain in a very large way.

Most of us are hurting, losing funds from retirement accounts and McCain/Palin camp is on record as saying they want to ignore the economy and pivot to Obama's identity??; October 7, 2008 7:45 PM
Eric said...: Claire McCaskill (D) Missou has super-mojo/swagger lately. Ya'll noticed. I think Palin pissed her off. I think Mizzou is going Blue. I think I'm pretty rational. That was the last of the potential swing states I thought we had a chance in. I'm feeling it now though.; October 7, 2008 7:47 PM
hurn0003 said...: Real Joe said...

"Hurn

Sarah is from Wasilla, Alaska"

Ummmm...is she limited to only having people from Wasilla in her gubernatorial cabinet? Or maybe I am confused and she is Governor of the State of Wasilla in the country of Alaska? No that can't be right, her and her husband's secessionist friends haven't had their way yet.

Get a clue Joe.; October 7, 2008 7:48 PM
eve said...: I think McCaskill could run for prez in 2016.; October 7, 2008 7:50 PM
Eric said...: I love Barack, but do you all know the term "Yellow Dog Democrat"? Dems in the SOuth that would vote for a Yellow Dog over a Republican. I think right now McCain would have trouble beating a yellow dog right now.; October 7, 2008 7:50 PM
88 said...: Great coverage, Nate. Mazel tov on your frequent media appearances.

Actually, I think Charlie Crist's sexuality is the worst kept secret in history. That old queen needs to come out of the closet.

Obama is an epic character. He will be remembered for centuries to come. He ain't Jesus; he ain't perfect; but he has the brains and the balls to lead us.

This election is looking GREAT for the candidate who stands to change our country, its perception on the world stage -- and maybe the world itself!

I do not want an erratic war monger representing the US for the next eight years.

BARACK OBAMA & JOE BIDEN 2008!!!!!!; October 7, 2008 7:52 PM
Alyssa said...: “If people want to get down in the mud, we’re prepared to get dirty.”

That's freaking right! Bring it!
But I honestly don't think it will come to that in this format... however, I can only hope old Johnny boy blows his top over Obama's Steady Freddy Even Steven style.; October 7, 2008 7:52 PM
Eric said...: What Sarah doesn't realize is she would be a complete eunuch as VP. No power whatsoever. None. I'd bet all 535 members of Congress believe they're more qualified than she is, including the most Conservative Neo-Cons. She'd be totally unrespected. They'd laugh at anything she tried. It would almost be fun to see. After Cheney. Ha. not to mention, McCain doesn't respect her either. He's just trying to use her.; October 7, 2008 7:53 PM
Eric said...: YES! My two favorite people: Silver and Colbert.; October 7, 2008 7:53 PM
88 said...: Eve -- are you watching Hardball? I love Chris Matthews, but I wish he would STFU sometimes and let his often intelligent and informed guests express themselves.; October 7, 2008 7:54 PM
OTF said...: Eve,

Potential future Dem women candidates as of now IMO are McCaskill(MO), Sebelius(KS), Napolitano(AZ); October 7, 2008 7:54 PM
Eric said...: I wish there was some way only one person could have a specific user name on here.; October 7, 2008 7:55 PM
Eric said...: OTF said...
Eve,

Potential future Dem women candidates as of now IMO are McCaskill(MO), Sebelius(KS), Napolitano(AZ)

No on Sebelius and Napolitano. Charismaless.

Yes on Hillary and McCaskill.; October 7, 2008 7:56 PM
Eric said...: I like Wasserman-Schultz too, but she's probably "too" Jewish for some.; October 7, 2008 7:56 PM
couchpotatoxxx12 said...: Palin would be a better VP than Cheney. At least she (probably) wouldn't shoot people.; October 7, 2008 7:57 PM
Dianne said...: Oh, Sara Falin has seen at least one African American before. She won the Ms. Alaska contest when Ms. Hockey Mom was the runner up contestant. Maybe that is the root of one of her problems; October 7, 2008 7:57 PM
Alyssa said...: How many Eric's are posting right now?; October 7, 2008 7:59 PM
True Redneck Patriot said...: I think the best thing we can do now is in the meantime of waiting for Obama to get elected, we can sit around listening to David Allen Coe while figuring out just what's the best way to bash that nigger's head in.

Any suggestions?; October 7, 2008 7:59 PM
OTF said...: Eric,

I love Wasserman Shultz when she's on the talk shows. She is defintely feisty.; October 7, 2008 8:01 PM
swordinthesound.com said...: Saw you on Countdown with Keith Olbermann last night. Good job; October 7, 2008 8:03 PM
Robert said...: I was watching CNN at the gym during lunch and Wolf asked some McCain advisor women about the polls and her reponse was basically, "no one has voted yet".

I immediately thought back to those stories about how the Obama campaign had known the primary rules better and planned for them better then the Hillary campaign. Now it appears that the same thing is happening in the general election, while the McCain campaign insists that no one has voted yet so they have plenty of time to catch up, Obama's team is actually out there getting voters to the polls already.; October 7, 2008 8:03 PM
Alyssa said...: Obama strategist Axelrod warns John McCain on tonight's debate

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/obama-debate.html

Side note: John Stewart is killing it right now.; October 7, 2008 8:03 PM
Michael said...: Re "poll of polls" error. Jeez guys, hasn't anybody had elementary stats? The reported MOE is purely statistical. So long as one ignores non-statistical error (as all these reported MOE's do) it's completely trivial to calculate the MOE of the average. Take the sum of the squares of the individual MOE's. Divide by the number of polls. Take the square root. You're done. High school stuff.

The better way to average is to weight each poll by the number in the sample (equivalent to weighting by the inverse square of the MOE). Then the net MOE is a little lower. And is really simple to calculate. You just use the TOTAL sample size rather than the individual ones.

CNN doesn't have its head in the game./mbw; October 7, 2008 8:03 PM
OTF said...: true redneck,

Guess what the moron like you who shouted "kill him" at Palin rally in reference to Obama is now being investigates by the secret service. You are going to be on the list too soon with moronic and racists comments.; October 7, 2008 8:04 PM
Eric said...: Got to love "The View" lately. Even Barbara's not messing around anymore.

OTF said...
Eric,

I love Wasserman Shultz when she's on the talk shows. She is defintely feisty.

For sure. She'd rip Sarah a new one if they debated. Guaranteed she's not alone in her lack of respect for that unadulterated moron that Steve Schmidt, I mean John McCain picked for VP. I'd think Debbie could beat Mel Martinez for that Senate seat. He's weak. I don't know how a Jew for Senate would play statewide. They certainly don't have a problem in California.; October 7, 2008 8:05 PM
Moses said...: True Redneck...U just never learn do you? Rednecks are history and it's all about us working together for a better future...If you donn like this version then lets try this...It's time for the niggaz to lynch you redneck MF's!!!! Grow up and go to school bitch!; October 7, 2008 8:07 PM
Eric said...: Michael said...
Re "poll of polls" error. Jeez guys, hasn't anybody had elementary stats? The reported MOE is purely statistical. So long as one ignores non-statistical error (as all these reported MOE's do) it's completely trivial to calculate the MOE of the average. Take the sum of the squares of the individual MOE's. Divide by the number of polls. Take the square root. You're done. High school stuff.

The better way to average is to weight each poll by the number in the sample (equivalent to weighting by the inverse square of the MOE). Then the net MOE is a little lower. And is really simple to calculate. You just use the TOTAL sample size rather than the individual ones.

CNN doesn't have its head in the game./mbw

I do this regularly on my posts. It's the best guess we can. It's imperfect also. Some weak polls poll large samples. They're demographics, Voter Id, all of the internals are sometimes messed up. That's the problem with weighting by sample size. That being said, it's likely that when 5000 people have been polled in Florida, Ohio, Virginia over the last 10 days and Obama is up 3 or more % in all 3. The MOE is probably less thna 1%, unless 1 or more of the polls is total crap.; October 7, 2008 8:09 PM
Paul said...: Marc said:
I've asked this before, but does anyone know why CNN says their "poll of polls" has NO sampling error? I know enough about stats to know that's pure bullshit, but can anyone tell me what kind of reasoning they might be using? And they don't mean "we don't know what the MOE is", they mean "it doesn't have one".

I've wondered about this myself. I took lots of physics in college and had to deal with all the awful error propagation that comes with inexact measurements and I know their answer is crap. I assume they are basically just trying to hide the fact that they can't calculate the sampling error by pretending it doesn't exist. The daily trackers certainly do it easily enough (each day is essentially a separate poll), but perhaps there's a reason they can't treat these varied polls the same way since they have entirely different methodologies? In any case, their "has no error" answer is ridiculous.; October 7, 2008 8:09 PM
Dianne said...: Redneck, a patriot you are not. Your post shows your real IQ, less than 70.; October 7, 2008 8:10 PM
True Redneck Patriot said...: Moses, Ill lynch you bitch-ass!

OTF - You lie. They ain't investigatin' nobody. That's some bullshit and you tryin' to scare somebody. I kick yore dumb ass now.; October 7, 2008 8:10 PM
Darío said...: Who win the debate tonight?.; October 7, 2008 8:13 PM
True Redneck Patriot said...: Dario - Not that fucking nigger, that's fer sure.; October 7, 2008 8:13 PM
Eric said...: I would not have McCain on my show before the elction if I were Letterman. I know anything for ratings, but I would give him the repsect if I were Dave.; October 7, 2008 8:15 PM
True Redneck Patriot said...: Now I ain't no racist, but we don't need a stupid black muslim man as president. Let them niggers have their own country or something and he can lead them. We need full segregation once again.

I don't want to go to the store or the gas station or have my kids goin' to school with a bunch of stupid niggers.; October 7, 2008 8:15 PM
Darío said...: Rednecks for Obama?.
I saw a video with that.; October 7, 2008 8:15 PM
Moses said...: true redneck patriot, U r a pain in the rear and to this country...this is no place for you if you can't see beyond skin color in 2008!!! I feel sad 4 u & ur generation if you have one! All you can do is kick ass. N'way forget you, u donn belong here....On to more important things pliz??; October 7, 2008 8:15 PM
Real Joe said...: a fellow redneck has arrived; October 7, 2008 8:16 PM
Michael said...: Whoops- I meant divide by the number of polls AFTER taking the squareroot.

my bad /mbw; October 7, 2008 8:16 PM
Eric said...: Not that I believe the polls wholeheartedly, but if Obama is really ahead 10-15 in Michigan and Pennsylvania and maintains anything close to that, he'll win Ohio too.; October 7, 2008 8:17 PM
Cugel said...: True Redneck Patriot,

You and your kind are finished in this country. May you burn slowly in hell, fuckface.; October 7, 2008 8:17 PM
Matthew H said...: lol...I just got kicked out of the more 'civilized' forum, but this doesn't feel the same.

That's OK, spending too much time on politics anyways.; October 7, 2008 8:17 PM
Eric said...: McCain will try really, really hard tonight to pretend he understands the economy. I doubt he'll convince anybody, because he doesn't get it.; October 7, 2008 8:18 PM
dpldust said...: *******SECRET SERVICE INVESTIGATING MCCAIN/PALIN RALLYS******

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/7/17492/4844/275/623140; October 7, 2008 8:18 PM
Nate Silver said...: FYI - Redneck has been banned!; October 7, 2008 8:18 PM
OTF said...: True redenck,

Go to the politico and the link secret service is investigating something else they heard. You're a moron.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/; October 7, 2008 8:18 PM
Alyssa said...: Real Joe finally has a friend.; October 7, 2008 8:19 PM
Real Joe said...: true redneck patriot said...

we need full segregation once again.

its 2008

grow up; October 7, 2008 8:20 PM
Real Joe said...: alyssa said...
Real Joe finally has a friend.

i don't become friends with folks who promote segregation; October 7, 2008 8:21 PM
fred said...: I love Sarah Palin, she is so smart.

Quoting Madeline Albright, so smart.

I wish all women were Sarah Palin, who needs dummies from Harvard....; October 7, 2008 8:22 PM
Alyssa said...: Fake Nate Silver FYI; October 7, 2008 8:22 PM
Chester Chester the Republican Molester said...: This country won't be back on the right track again until all registered Republicans, avowed Conservatives, and especially complete ignoramuses like TRP are rounded up and shot to death.

Solves two problems at once, right there. No more "overpopulation" and no more 19th century thinking.

I'm not joking. Liberals need to commit genocide agains those subhuman, knuckledragging conservatives.; October 7, 2008 8:23 PM
Michael said...: @eric. Yes, agreed. The weighted average works best only f the error is purely statistical. The optimum method would be to weight by the inverse square of the error from statistics and pollster sampling problems. I wonder where we could find some sort of web site smart enough to do that?

Amazing that this site and CNN exist in the same universe.
/mbw; October 7, 2008 8:23 PM
Alyssa said...: "i don't become friends with folks who promote segregation"

Fair enough.; October 7, 2008 8:23 PM
Eric said...: What's Nate going to do when the elction and baseball season end simultaneously. No more massive hits on the website means no more ash cow, right? Like that "The Express" video. What did they have to pay to put that there? i bet some hard cash.; October 7, 2008 8:24 PM
Big Feet = Big Shoes said...: FYI - Alyssa = Stupid Bitch; October 7, 2008 8:24 PM
Real Joe said...: we have some animals in here

crazy liberal chester & a redneck ghost from the 1950's; October 7, 2008 8:25 PM
Real Joe said...: chester/big feet are the same

http://www.blogger.com/profile/03441230254568122891; October 7, 2008 8:26 PM
Stevie Wonder said...: Eric,

What about Nate's call on the Cubs? Does that speak to his accuracy in politics? I thought he was better in the field of baseball, so maybe he's even more wrong as a polling analyzer.

He really douched hard with his Cubs pick though.; October 7, 2008 8:26 PM
GeeBee said...: Congrats Nate! You have made this election one I'll never forget. Do good, avoid evil.; October 7, 2008 8:26 PM
Real Joe said...: id's match; October 7, 2008 8:26 PM
fred said...: mbw-

Not true if every poll uses a different method to report voters (likely v registered) or uses different methods to "coreect" (party id correction or not) not to mention the differences in how they count voters (electronic or real person interview).

Amazing that people come to a stats site with no knowledge of stats...; October 7, 2008 8:27 PM
Stevie Wonder said...: FYI = Animal Molesting Fuckstain; October 7, 2008 8:27 PM
GeeBee said...: Oh, and thanks for banning Redneck. Geez, this is getting scary....; October 7, 2008 8:28 PM
Becky Sharp said...: @otf
SUSA has no clue what they are doing in NC. In August they had Dem+13 party ID which directly correlates to actual registration numbers. The +20 McCain poll and this one they have Dem+5 party ID.
With the correct part ID Obama is +3 to 4 in NC

OK don't jump all over me I'm just trying to be real here folks

In 2004 there were 2,582,462 registered Democrats 1,903,119 registered Republicans and 1,021,648 registered Indies.

That is a net Dem advantage of 12%. On election day according to exit polls 40% of voters were repub and 39% dem AND those exit polls turned out to be horribly under-representative of Bush votes.

Today the net Dem advantage is 1% higher than in 2004. Based on the events of 2004 it would be crazy to assume a 13% Dem advantage at the polls. In fact 5% looks darned generous right now - even factoring in the Obama effect on the black vote (don't forget in 2004 NC's own Edwards was on the ticket - the theory then was that that would have had a pretty big democrat magnet effect too)

Bottom line - lets get real. NC will be very hard to win.; October 7, 2008 8:28 PM
Shelley Davis said...: Wow, there's really some vile, disgusting people. But oddly, the dirty talk is making me a little horny.; October 7, 2008 8:29 PM
Real Joe said...: geebee said...
Oh, and thanks for banning Redneck. Geez, this is getting scary...

thats a fake Nate Silver; October 7, 2008 8:29 PM
Becky Sharp said...: (this is my source http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/7/1596/58679/227/563185); October 7, 2008 8:30 PM
Real Joe said...: shelley davis said...
the dirty talk is making me a little horny.

LOL; October 7, 2008 8:30 PM
Alyssa said...: real joe said...
chester/big feet are the same

http://www.blogger.com/profile/03441230254568122891

And Nate Silver and Redneck. Surprise. Yawn.; October 7, 2008 8:30 PM
Nate Silver said...: I'm the real Nate Silver. I won't ban anyone unless they are being disruptive to the point that the comments section is completely gridlocked with garbage.; October 7, 2008 8:30 PM
Loralee said...: I agree with markedman -- with all these "media tips" Nate's going to develop a complex. You guys will have him blinking and tongue-jutting constantly!; October 7, 2008 8:30 PM
Real Joe said...: nate silver said...
I'm the real Nate Silver.

TROLL

fake Nate; October 7, 2008 8:31 PM
fred said...: JESUS CHRIST!

Many registered dems in the south are yellow dog dems from before 1968 (i.e. racist republicans)

Party ident means something "down there". Most national polllsters are clueless to area codes and the menaing of part ident v age in the south.; October 7, 2008 8:31 PM
Mark Hussein in VA said...: True Redneck Lobotomy, you wouldn't win a debate with a fart. You're probably still looking for the picto-grams to teach you how to masturbate as it'd be a big step up from those chickens you keep brutalizing.; October 7, 2008 8:32 PM
David Dell said...: @Shelley - If you're really horny, I can probably alleviate some of that political frustration you're going through.

I'll stick it in every hole that you have. And even a few other places it doesn't belong.; October 7, 2008 8:33 PM
Alex S. said...: That fake Nate Silver has got the same blogger id that shelly davis, stevie wonder and true redneck patriot have.; October 7, 2008 8:33 PM
Becky Sharp said...: anyone going to comment on my NC numbers? - took me ages, used my calculator and everything!; October 7, 2008 8:33 PM
GG said...: NE02 is turning PINK!!!!!!; October 7, 2008 8:34 PM
Alex S. said...: I pride myself on investigating these sorts of things because I don't have much else to do but read 538 all day and beat off.; October 7, 2008 8:36 PM
Alyssa said...: "NE02 is turning PINK!!!!!!"

WV too. I want to see a poll there damnit.; October 7, 2008 8:36 PM
David Dell said...: @GG

And so is Shelley's warm pussy. Don't you want a piece?; October 7, 2008 8:37 PM
Eric said...: I am watching Olbermann - its amazing how he cites the 538 electoral projection in the same breath and as easily as he cites a gallup or msnbc poll! Nate clearly has a fan.; October 7, 2008 8:38 PM
Alyssa said...: My pussy is pink and wet. How does that work for everyone?; October 7, 2008 8:38 PM
Sedi said...: Did anybody see the article linked on Pollster about Cindy McCain's remarks? She actually said that Obama has "waged the dirtiest campaign in American history." Yes, the wife of the candidate whose campaign is accusing his opponent of having associations with terrorists is saying that OBAMA has run a dirty campaign. Cindy isn't a pol, so you can't quite hold her to the same standard, but it's an insane charge. I have no clue what she is talking about. Dems spent much of the summer wringing their hands over Obama's seeming unwillingness to attack McCain. Matt J.H. was flipping out through all of August waiting for Obama to attack. And Cindy McCain thinks that Obama -- who is constantly trying to shift the discussion towards the issues -- is running a dirty campaign? Ugh.; October 7, 2008 8:39 PM
Eric said...: I think if on the night of Nov. 4th, Obama is elected and I get to have a circle-jerk with Keith Olbermann and Nate Silver, I'd be in heaven!; October 7, 2008 8:40 PM
fred said...: This post has been removed by the author.; October 7, 2008 8:41 PM
fred said...: What I meant to say was, Becky, you are a stupid fucking cunt.; October 7, 2008 8:42 PM
Alyssa said...: http://www.blogger.com/profile/03441230254568122891

This loser is having a multiple personality breakdown. Please keep using my name. I'm flattered you care so much.; October 7, 2008 8:43 PM
Real Joe said...: CIndy McCain:

Sen. Barack Obama has "waged the dirtiest campaign in American history,”

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081007/NEWS0206/81007055; October 7, 2008 8:43 PM
Alyssa said...: It would behoove someone to get my digits and come fuck me in the ass.; October 7, 2008 8:43 PM
Real Joe said...: fu**king looser; October 7, 2008 8:45 PM
Joey said...: Nate,

Please look up the id's of some of these clowns who keep posting idiotic and vile stuff. They are and have ruined the comments section.

This thread has gotten intolerable. You MUST do something or people will leave.; October 7, 2008 8:46 PM
OTF said...: becky,

First exit polls are notoriously inaccurate for many reasons. The Dems had no chance of winning NC so Dem turnout was low, Kerry ran no ground game and ran no ads in NC. He didn't even contest it.; October 7, 2008 8:47 PM
Real Joe said...: I'm usually the obnoxious one...geez, now nobody's going to pay any attention to me when I talk about kicking that nigger Obama's ass.; October 7, 2008 8:47 PM
Becky Sharp said...: @otf

good point - but I still wonder if it makes sense for pollsters to assume actual turnout will be anything like statewide registration numbers suggest.

I guess that's where likely voters vs. registered voters comes into play; October 7, 2008 8:50 PM
Eric said...: Becky Sharp said...
anyone going to comment on my NC numbers? - took me ages, used my calculator and everything!

Certainly scary stuff with some merit. I'd tell you that I'm pretty sure, of the 50 states, North Carolina is the only one I know of with a huge Democratic Registration advantage where many of the Dems regularly vote Pub, to the point that it always goes Red in Prez elections. You might have a point. What do you think of virginia where folks don't register by party and two recent polls have Obama up 10 and 12?; October 7, 2008 8:51 PM
assmole said...: was that the real nate hussein silver or the fake one? and which one was/is on colbert?

sharp: I know something harder than NC.; October 7, 2008 8:53 PM
Becky Sharp said...: @eric

Its not just dem voters voting repub - that should get caught in advance by pollsters. Its dem voters simply not turning out in the numbers their registration suggest - that's when assuming pollsters have the lock on truth becomes dangerous.

Virginia I'm more hopeful about - although lack of party affiliation might make the pollsters job even more difficult!; October 7, 2008 8:54 PM
someperson718 said...: Nate you better learn to smile man.; October 7, 2008 8:54 PM
Becky Sharp said...: >>sharp: I know something harder than NC.

bring it; October 7, 2008 8:55 PM
assmole said...: someperson: he has no teeth, though. Could be gruesome for the viewer if he smiles.; October 7, 2008 8:55 PM
assmole said...: sharp: i'd love to bring it but it's on vacation.; October 7, 2008 8:56 PM
Becky Sharp said...: assmole: get it back working already; October 7, 2008 8:58 PM

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