The idea of Barack Obama winning North Carolina or perhaps Indiana, I think we have gotten accustomed to. But Obama winning ... West Virginia, a state where he got barely a quarter of the vote in the Democratic primary?
That's what American Research Group says; in fact, it gives Obama a rather large, 8-point lead in the Mountaineer State. I'd have to say that I'm very, very skeptical of this one until I see it confirmed by another polling agency; this is exactly the sort of quirky result that ARG is (in)famous for.
Nevertheless, if Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania -- and all of the polls seem to think that he does -- that means he's had to have made at least some progress in the "Pennsyltucky" region in the interior of the state. And if he's made progress in Pennsyltucky, that probably means he's made progress in West Virginia. West Virginia -- like Pennsylvania -- is also a place where the Democrats retain a substantial edge in party identification, and perhaps the economy has really brought Democrats home. Indeed, for the past week or so, just about every poll taken in a Kerry state has shown Obama with a double-digit lead, with the minor exception of Minnesota, where the polling has been erratic.
In any event, there might be some merit in Obama paying a visit to West Virginia -- not because it's quite moved to the point where it's a swing state but because I think the symbolism of all of it would get him a lot of earned media.
Here are the rest of the numbers:
Obama slightly improved his position in the tracking polls today -- incorporating one full day of interviewing after the Nashville debate -- although most of that is the Diageo/Hotline poll having snapped back to Obama +6 after showing him ahead by just 1 yesterday. (You should continue to give top priority the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls as their large sample sizes make them less prone to this sort of result). We'll want to wait until the weekend before we can more fully evaluate the effects of the debate.
10.09.2008
Today's Polls, 10/9
@ 2:23 PM
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While Obama seems like he is ahead how can we insure a fair election? Last two times there was a great deal of database manipulation to disenfranchise the American Citizens of their vote. In 2000 the election was stolen, the NAACP sued Florida over 200000 votes and won. Florida simply said they were sorry and said it won't happen again. And now the Republicans are doing other illegal things such as "vote caging" to eliminate the votes of Citizens (more or less targeting black citizens). Although this vote caging process also targets US service people. The use vote caging build lists of people inelligable to vote. So if you are serving out country overseas the Republicans will challenge your right to vote by you not being at your address at time of registration.
real joe, it wont look good when the US Dollar is a 1:1 exchange for the Mexican Peso.
Lee, it's true that Obama only "needs" 270.
But that's old school thought--just scrape by....
At this point, he's close to assured of winning, so there are two objectives his campaign has (other than standing on McPalin's neck). The first is to get longer coattails. More Democratic seats in the House and Senate. The second is to push the EV score so far past 270 that a) there's no plausible way to lose, and b) so that Obama enters office with a historic mandate (as opposed to a Bush league one...) and has a shitpile of political capital and credibility.
One reason for people to support that is that we honestly do need someone who has that stature to take office, claiming to have actually unified the people, to have the support of 35 or 40 states and... from that position be able to launch the kind of pick ourselves up by our bootstraps and recover from the last eight years that we need. That sort of win makes the political side of leaving Iraq easy (relatively). It'll make taking the hard steps to implement stiff taxes on the wealthy and warporkers easy (relatively). It'll make ratcheting down on Big Oil and pumping support into alternative energy easy (relatively). Ditto implementing some real health care reform.
Winning with 270 makes it easier to oppose the kind of major change and reform that the country and the world (and environment) need, urgently, much harder.
Lastly, that kind of smashing victory will actually help perk up the markets--America's going to get a president who is solidly supported... who will be able to DO things. So much of the market is psychological... so a jolt of upbeat news like that will help mellow the panic.
-600 points. Where's Slim Pickens?
you know the "run on the banks" fear of the past. Probably unlikely given the $250k protection, etc. But, how about a run on 401ks, etc. If everyone pulls their money out all at once, supply and demand goes haywire. The markets lost 89% in 1929. I haven't liquidated all of my investments, but I'm feeling like going straight cash. Many people I know are scared and considering it that are less knowledgeable than I am about investments. I'm in my 30s, but when folks like Cramer and Orman say if you're close to retirement goet into cash, that could create a bit of a run on equities. How low can we go? I suppose if we don't see companies like say GM or American Airlines or Citigroup go under we can probably safely bet we won't lose more than about another 20% on the indexes. Around 1933 we had 33% unemloyment and a market that lost 89% of t's value. It didn't see the old highs for 25 years. God help us if that's where we're headed.
Two words. Short Sellers.
thanks, alafair.
Obama Rally in OH
http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2
Biden Rally in MO
http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream3
I pray everyone has secured their retirement funds in time. I know many haven't though. This is a disaster.
Charles Crook said...
-600 points. Where's Slim Pickens?
I don't know, but McCain reminds me of Dr. Strangelove
War,
doesn't seem like you are paying attention to the forex numbers?
The peso is tanking against the dollar. I mean all time lows.
Mid market is now near 13!
OpenID mc9cain said...
Two words. Short Sellers."
Did they actually remove the ban on this? They banned it in the last week of September.
DOW is bouncing back somewhat as the closing bell nears. Down only 450 now
Rasmussen
IN 49-47 McCain
NJ 50-42 Obama
NC 50-47 Obama
MI 56-40 Obama
are these correct?
I saw elsewhere a different set of polls with FL
and an INdiana number showing a larger lead for McCain
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
OpenID mc9cain said...
Two words. Short Sellers."
Did they actually remove the ban on this? They banned it in the last week of September.
that's naked shorts
"Look for Obama to start looking good in Montana..." - Julieinseattle
Julie:
I think this is a sleeping lion of a state for Obama. Check out my analysis above. Montanans are not a monolithic voting block. The independents and Democrats are respectively 50% and 95% behind Obama. Ron Paul is pulling 20% of independents and 20% of Republicans in recent polls.
This is enough to ruin Montana for McCain, I believe. People there are pissed and have 80% favorability for Schweitzer and Tester - both Democrats behind Obama.
I do not think this is shorters. I think it is just sellers. there is a serious lack of confidence in these markets
Real Joe said...
"that's naked shorts"
This is no time to get dirty on a message board joe.
closing bell
looks like it will settle back down more than 600
"Matt W said...
War,
doesn't seem like you are paying attention to the forex numbers?
The peso is tanking against the dollar. I mean all time lows.
Mid market is now near 13!"
i was just being facetious, since real joe didnt seem to notice that the dow taking is bad news for everyone.
"Did they actually remove the ban on this? They banned it in the last week of September."
The ban on short selling was lifted today. Go figure!
lol
have a look here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_short_selling
Two legitimate, multi-night polls will be coming out this weekend from Selzer and the source working with the Indianapolis Star News for Indiana this weekend.
Be on the lookout.
My guess is that Indiana is legitimately within the margin of error. The Star-News is now a Gannett outfit, but Dan Quayle's family still has editorial interest with the paper. Their poll will be as generous as possible to McCain.
Selzer, however, is a straight shooter and has been dead on the last so many cycles in Midwestern state polling. Her number will serve as a more legitimate number.
Keep an eye out fot those because they should be smelling salts to the McCain people that the polling in IN is a definite trend.
It is not the Indiana of 1984 anymore. Far from it.
dow is tanking
War,
YES, bad news for everyone, including Mexico!
Actually good for me, but that is just short term self interest. I am sad about this overall. Very sad.
DOW closed
made me nice money
GM hasn't been this cheap since... McCain was young.
Ban on short selling was lifted yesterday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3204318-94d1-11dd-953e-000077b07658.html
wow down 7.13%
DOW is going to settle at the Low of the day, and at a 5 year low.
This will hurt a lot of people.
Dow Still dropping even after the bell.
-678 (down 7.33)
jerry,
they are just processing the pre-bell trades. It looks like the final number is -678.91 to close at
*GASP* 8579.19
new post
matt:
yeah I remember last week when the Dow went down 777 it went down almost 100 points after the bell as well. Thanks for the clarification :)
It is historical fact that ever since West Virginia entered the union in 1863, it has backed every individual Democratic president. Only Woodrow Wilson's 1916 re-election is the exception; that was an election Wilson barely won (over Republcan challenger Charles E. Hughes, 277-254), and failed to carry his home state (New Jersey). So I've been thinking all along not to underestimate W.Va.
I wanted to see what all these great electoral college numbers for Obama look like graphically, so I married Nate's numbers to a proportionally weighted map. Neat!
America's economic blues
PeteKent- here's your boy:
How the Senator Lost it at a Puerto Rican Casino
For this entire presidential campaign, the media have been waiting for John McCain’s famous temper to explode. A few small examples have been reported without anyone trying to make a big deal about it. The rule seems to be that if he can keep it bottled until November 5, he’s home free. But if he explodes in the interim, it becomes an official issue. This isn’t completely nuts. If he can’t hold it in for just the few months he is under maximum scrutiny, then he has a real problem. Otherwise, hey—Bill Clinton also had a temper, it was said, along with other uncontrollable passions.
Until recently this anger business didn’t bother me much. There is a lot to be angry about. Furthermore, I was not confident that McCain’s anger passed the whose-ox-is-gored test: As an Obama supporter, would I be equally alarmed if my preferred candidate had anger issues? (Which some folks say he does, by the way.) Then I heard the following story.
It comes in an email from my friend Jeff Dearth, a media investment banker and former publisher of The New Republic. We also went to junior high and high school together in Michigan. He would not make this up. In 2005, Jeff attended a magazine industry conference at a casino hotel in Puerto Rico. (I was there, too, though not a witness to what follows.) The guest speaker was McCain. He put on a terrific performance, breaking up the friendly crowd by referring to journalists as “my base.” (To anyone who remembers this period in McCain’s history, his attempt this year to paint Barack Obama as Britney Spears or Paris Hilton because Obama is now the media darling seems especially cheap.)
McCain’s game is craps. So is Jeff Dearth’s. Jeff was at the table when McCain showed up and happily made room for him. Apparently there is some kind of rule or tradition in craps that everyone’s hands are supposed to be above the table when the dice are about to be thrown. McCain—“very likely distracted by one of the many people who approached him that evening,” Jeff says charitably—apparently was violating this rule. A small middle-aged woman at the table, apparently a “regular,” reached out and pulled McCain’s arm away. I’ll let Jeff take over the story:
“McCain immediately turned to the woman and said between clenched teeth: ‘DON’T TOUCH ME.’ The woman started to explain...McCain interrupted her: ‘DON’T TOUCH ME,’ he repeated viciously. The woman again tried to explain. ‘DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM? DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU’RE TALKING TO?’ McCain continued, his voice rising and his hands now raised in the ‘bring it on’ position. He was red-faced. By this time all the action at the table had stopped. I was completely shocked. McCain had totally lost it, and in the space of about ten seconds. ‘Sir, you must be courteous to the other players at the table,’ the pit boss said to McCain. “DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM? ASK ANYBODY AROUND HERE WHO I AM.”
This being Puerto Rico, the pit boss might not have known McCain. But the senator continued in full fury—“DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU’RE TALKING TO? DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM?”—and crisis was avoided only when Jeff offered to change places and stand between McCain and the woman who had touched his arm.
What is bothersome about this story, if it’s true, is only partly the explosive anger. More, it’s the arrogance. At the craps table, who cares who he is? And there’s the recklessness of such a performance in a casino full of journalists (unless McCain absolutely couldn’t control himself, which is even scarier). But this gamble paid off. Although there were published reports that McCain had gambled late into the night, which properly treated that matter as charming, this particular episode has gone unreported until now. Maybe no journalist saw it. Or maybe this illustrates the unwritten rule of political journalism that all human-interest anecdotes must reaffirm a previously established belief. Arrogance is something McCain is not known for. Quite the opposite. Logic might dictate that an anecdote showing that, say, Obama has webbed feet would be more interesting than one showing that he is a skinny guy with big ears. But that’s not how it works.
Jeff Dearth is not an extreme partisan or an activist for either candidate. He supports Obama, in part because he is truly alarmed at the thought of the arrogant hothead he saw becoming president. (“I’d happily gamble with Senator McCain again,” he says, “but I definitely wouldn’t gamble on him.”) It alarms me, too. John McCain is the best Republican presidential candidate of my lifetime. But a performance like this would give me pause about supporting a candidate of either party.
A half-hour of prime time?
James Hibberd reports:
Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS, sources confirm.
The Obama campaign will air a half-hour primetime special on Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m.
Sources say the Obama camp is also near a deal with NBC and Fox. It’s not yet clear if an ad buy is locked on any other network, however, or if the duration or time period is the same.
I have been curious about what might come from West Virginia since I saw a couple of close polls coming out recently, and now this. What are the chances that the state is being impacted by Obama's media blitz in three neighboring states of PA, OH, and VA?
I totally agree that it would be worth a visit, if nothing else maybe it would scare McCain and the Republican Party into spending some money there.
$$$
ARG only has Obama up by one in my home state of MN?! Get real.
I know ARG's a terrible pollster, but this goes even beyond bad polling. The only way McCain could even come within 5 points of Obama in Minnesota is if McCain offered voters free beer, and even then I wouldn't change my vote.
I'd like to see Obama visit the Kentucky/West Virginia border to mark the anniversary of the 10/11 Martin County disaster that dumped 300,000 gallons of coal slurry into the rivers of the area and created the worst environmental catastrophe in the history of the continental U.S. As a reward for their loyalty, the execs at Massey Coal (big donors to Bush/Cheney and Mitch McConnell) have gotten prime leadership positions in Bush Administration, including key DOE appointments.
Given his emphasis on "clean coal," it would be nice to hear Obama discuss the need to clean up the industry on every level. Folks in Appalachia have been told for too long to suck it up as the land is violated and the people are exploited, and the only ones who get anywhere are the coal company bosses and the Republican hacks. I would love to see Obama go to Inez, a community still living with the reality of having been "sludged" - and the very place where McCain claimed that Obama was "out of touch" this summer. Wow, that seems like it was years ago now, doesn't it.
If he did that, I think Obama could not only win West Virginia, but might also significantly close the gap in Kentucky, too. (I'm not gonna get crazy here and say he could "win" KY. I grew up there, and I know what an uphill battle that is. But people there are hurting, and I think it would be a meaningful gesture just for him to show up.)
Can someone describe whats happening in NJ? It is my understanding that NJ always votes DEM and I figured Obama would be winning much more easily there. Do we have to worry about NJ?
Depalma - NO.
Smart GOP folks out there should resign themselves to reality and start working on their Palin '12 ground game.
With the Dow below 9000 right now and all the other crap going on, do you really want the GOP to be in control? NO, you do NOT. You want the Dems to get control of both Houses and the White House, so everything bad is on them for the next four years, while you can earnestly talk about fiscal responsibility and the middle class.
Seriously. Next time anyone wants to write about Ayers or Wright or Obama's character and how terrible he is, save it. Spend some time hooking up with other GOP folks and get started on getting back Congress in '10 and the White House in '12. It's a much better use of your time.
Just received the video link of Ralph Stanley's endorsement of Barack Obama (http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/RalphStanley). That might swing the "good ol' boy" vote in WV.
Real Joe said...
i have lowered by expectation of a McCain victory
i don't live in a dream world
--------------------------------
"Dream world" Real Joe was much more fun =-)
It's the Mountain State, not the Mountaineer State.
if barack is competitive in wv and rural pennsylvania just imagine what he would do if he came and put mccain on the defensive here in kentucky. he could probably win kentucky and also help put mitch out of his misery.
Change to Win to Drop Anti-McCain Health Care Fliers
The pro-Obama labor federation plans to distribute about a million pieces of mail in swing states attacking McCain’s health care stance.
Mailer says: “George Bush and John McCain: Leaving working Americans SICK and BROKE.”
McCain needs to get out off PA
i have been preaching west virginia for a while.
although this poll is quite suspect, i do think it is in play, and maybe now will be polled more often.
besides, it's an essential part of my 380 prediction
Hillary to visit Charleston WV Friday...
http://wvgazette.com/News/politics/200810070770
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O. M. G.
Guys, I just saw an Obama TV ad ... here in Texas.
I think they might be thinking what we're thinking ... =)
Sedi,
Thoughtful response, as always, to Matt W and the Iowa question. I agree on your analysis of the best strategy for McCain.
I would be angry if I was a Repub at the way my money is being spent. I know JM is flailing. I am starting to doubt Schmidt's skills, also. He was on W's rapid response team and I think that is what he does best - react and attack. I do not think he gets the big picture or knows how to play the long game. Good for our side.
Jesus crap I know the Obama has a ton of money to spend but the type of campaign coverage they are aiming for and PULLING OFF is insane.
Someone previously said they are rewriting the way a campaign runs and from what I've seen so far, I completely agree.
Oh, one other detail -- the advertising was on the local Dallas CBS affiliate, not down in Austin, San Antonio, or the Rio Grande valley.
And in a Republican TX legislature race in Highland Park (upscale, near Dallas), while showing staunchly pro-Republican support for the incumbant, simultaneously showed Obama beating McCain in the same poll. (This was an internal poll, but still ... the result was surprising.)
At the very least, they must be thinking they can have a significant coattail effect by playing in this market. =)
Over at my sample-weighting website, I've created a chart that allows visitors to see "at a glance" some estimates of Party ID composition of various key states. That way, when a poll result seems odd, you can compare the Party ID composition of the poll (if provided) with some benchmarks.
http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/weighting.htm
For example, in today's "shock" poll result of Obama leading McCain by 8% in West Virginia, the partisan composition is 55% Democrats, 35% Republican. As seen on my chart, those Party ID figures are not out of line...
Minnesota is off kilter because of Palin. People in Minnesota sound just like her and therefore they can identify. Those Gophers love hockey too. You betcha.
Obama has a lock in
CA 55
CT 62
DC 65
DE 68
HI 72
IL 93
MA 105
MD 115
NY 146
RI 150
VT 153
McCain has a lock in
AK 3
AL 12
AZ 22
ID 26
KS 32
KY 40
NE 45
OK 52
TN 63
TX 97
UT 102
WY 105
7:00pm ET polls in (GA,IN,SC,and VA) close. McCain wins GA and SC. Obama wins IN and VA.
7:30pm ET polls in (NC,OH,and WV) close. McCain wins WV. Obama wins NC and OH.
8:00pm ET polls in (FL,ME,MO,MS,NH,NJ,PA)close. McCain wins MS. Obama wins FL,ME,MO,NH,NJ,and PA.
The election is over. Obama wins the 2008 US Presidential Elections. before 9:00pm.
8:30 pm ET polls in AR close. McCain wins AR.
9:00 pm ET polls win (CO,LA,MI,MN,NM,SD,and WI)close. McCain wins LA and SD.
Obama wins CO,MI,MN,NM,and WI.
Obama will be officially declared the winner of the 2008 US Presidential Election before the Pacific coast states CA,HI,OR,and WA are called.
Keep coal, guns and gays off the radar and WV is dark blue. Most counties in WV have no GOP choices in local elections.
With the economy in the shitter, we might even elect a Black Man. (To be sure, many minds are being blown!!!)
Why wouldn't WV be trending for Obama? The economic self-interest of the great majority of the people in WV is best served by Obama rather than McCain. If Obama is able to make that case, he will win WV. He may not be campaigning there, but he is putting up a major effort in all the states around it except KY. Ads from PA, OH, VA must be reaching enough WV voters to make a difference.
Over at my sample-weighting website, I've created a chart that allows visitors to see "at a glance" some estimates of Party ID composition of various key states. That way, when a poll result seems odd, you can compare the Party ID composition of the poll (if provided) with some benchmarks.
http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/weighting.htm
For example, in today's "shock" poll result of Obama leading McCain by 8% in West Virginia, the partisan composition is 55% Democrats, 35% Republican. As seen on my chart, those Party ID figures are not out of line.
bryen193 said...
"Pennsyltucky" - You really can't get a decent latte there...
I beg to differ. We serve a GREAT latte in our bookstore in State College. And we have been running Obama events almost everyday since last winter.
Centre County is an island of blue in the red se of th Pennsylvania T.
Paul
You're right that there are 18 simulations where McCain loses OH/MI but wins PA but he likely only wins a handful of those and its impossible to tell how many unless we can see how he does in the other states in those 18 simulations.
Just because he wins 61 of the simulations when he loses PA, doesn't mean he automatically wins the other 33 when he loses PA.
This is why it would be great if Nate could upload the raw results of his simulations so that we could dig into the scenarios a little deeper.
EDIT:
Just because he wins 61 of the simulations when he loses PA, doesn't mean he automatically wins the other 33 when he _wins_ PA.
How come Obama is doing better in CO than in NM.
Obama's margin in NM should be wider than CO and NV.
PeteKent
Go apply for a job at Fox News. They need right-wing blow hards like you. You're wasting you're time here.
voice of the midwest said...
If Obama is competitive in WV, then PA is in the bag already for Obama at +10 or more.
As for Indiana, the games have begun. The Republicans are not dedicating their ground game to door to door, let alone media. They are putting together a full scale effort to train the faithful working the polls to contest any voter who voted in the Democratic primary. A little birdie in the IN GOP ranks says they are going to demand provisional ballots for EVERY new registered voter at the polling sites....STATEWIDE!!!
The birdie in question is a 20 year friend of mine and GOP through and through. She was livid at the approach being pushed on them by McCain's people. She feels it could lose them a lot of GOP seats with 50/50 registration at risk at the Statehouse level. Not to mention that shoo-in GOP Gov. candidate Mitch Daniels lead in internal polling has gone from 16 in September to 5 this week. That is GOP internal polling, too!
McCain is all in at this time to drag it into the mud and sully the brand name of GOP even more. Even if it gives Dems the statehouse in these new battleground states.
My friends, if the GOP brand name is as popular as syphilis in Indiana, then the trends nationwide are making sense.
Good post, voice of the midwest. Thanks for the insight into events that don't get covered elsewhere. That's the kind of thing that makes me scan ALL the comments here.
People, stop arguing with the trolls and they'll go away.
Damn! WV is now a toss-up??? Barack Obama has rewritten the book on running a campaign. It is one that will become the standard for a long time to come.
Back in March of 2007, most people didn't give him any chance at winning the Dem nomination. Now it looks like there's a decent chance that he will not only win the general election, but win it in a landslide!
This guy (and his team) is brilliant!
I said:
McCain loses OH/MI, wins election – 94 of 7388
McCain loses OH/PA/MI, win election – 61 of 7370
These lines taken together lead to the following, which is clearly nonsensical:
McCain loses OH/MI but wins PA, wins election – 33 of 18
McCain could not have won the election 33 times in the 18 runs where he lost OH/MI but won PA.
narphorium replied:
You're right that there are 18 simulations where McCain loses OH/MI but wins PA but he likely only wins a handful of those and its impossible to tell how many unless we can see how he does in the other states in those 18 simulations.
Just because he wins 61 of the simulations when he loses PA, doesn't mean he automatically wins the other 33 when he wins PA.
narphorium,
Thank you for the response. If these numbers are plausibly correct, I don't know what I could be missing. The superset of results where McCain loses OH/MI can be divided into two subsets: one where he loses PA and one where he wins PA. Since the table says McCain wins the election 94 times in the superset of runs where he loses OH/MI, and he wins the election 61 times in the subset where he loses OH/PA/MI, doesn't this necessarily mean he must win the election 33 times in the subset where he loses OH/MI but wins PA? It may be right in front of me, but I don't see where my logical flaw could be. What other possible scenario for some of these other 33 wins am I missing?
A theory I read today why the stock market is tanking this week is the realization on Wall Street that Obama is gonna win. Article linked on RCP.
ACORN was caught in another state -- Indiana where it had hundreds of bogus registrations in corrupt Gary, IN. One 7 year old IN girl was registered as a 27-year-old. McCain promised a black Waukesha, WI voter today he'd mention ACORN and Jeremiah Wright in next week's debate.
ACORN was caught in Vegas 2 days ago registering the names of Tony Romo and the rest of the Dallas Cowboys starting lineup.
The GOP has diebold machines and the Dems have ACORN.
Why do we continue to see the systematic underweighting of the AfrAmer vote in Southern states?
Nate talked about this about a week ago with regards to Georgia. It happened again with GA's polls yesterday. Georgia is far closer than it appears!!
Today's Rasmussen NC Poll:
Obama 49-48. Pretty close. Seems reasonable. But look at the crosstabs:
White McCain 58-37
Black Obama 96-2
Other McCain 50-49
Here are the 2004 breakdowns:
White 71%
Black 26%
Other 3%
If you plug those same breakdowns into Excel, you will see that Obama is actually winning NC by 9.5 points!!!!
WTF??
Using the percentages given, I have to assume that Rasmussen is assuming that black turnout will only be 19%.
In other words nearly a third LESS black people are planning on voting in 2008 than voted in 2004.
Does anybody think this is realistic??
The bottom line from this poll is that Obama is holding McCain down to a 21 point win in white NC.
If this is remotely true, Obama will win NC very easily.
It only through some seriously wrong weightings that NC even appears close.
I really think that Biden should make a stop (or several) in West Virginia. If it were up to me, I'd put Biden in WV, PA, and OH and Obama in FL, VA, and NC, just based on whose language the candidates speak best. The latter category of states are bleeding tech/"white collar" jobs and the former are bleeding manufacturing jobs.
'Course, the campaign is probably already doing that, with the exclusion of West Virginia.
Registering false names doesn't have any actual impact on the election. These fake names don't actually vote.
The reason for the false registrations is that ACORN hires the types of people who can't get jobs elsewhere (felons, etc...) because it's a very thankless job. The motivation to submit fake forms is because ACORN workers get paid on commission. Actual *voting* fraud has nothing to do with it.
Oh, and about that ACORN issue? Those are people defrauding ACORN because they are being paid by number of voter registration forms they turn in... no one is intending on actually voting with those. C'mon, use some logic.
Looking at the states that Bill Clinton carried in 1996 against Bob (John McCain)Dole with more than 50%.
1)AR- Bubba's home state. he got 54% in AR in 1996. Bush carried AR in 2000(51-46). and 2004(54-45)
2)CA-
3)CT
4)DE
5)DC
6)HI
7)IL
8)IA- Gore won IA in 2000 (49-48). Bush won in 2004(50-49).
9)LA- Bubba won LA by a 52-40 percent margin. Bush carried LA in 2000 53-45 and 2004 57-42
10)ME-
11)MD
12)MA
13)MI
14)MN
15)NJ
16)NY
17)RI
18)VT
19)WA
20)WV- Bubba won WV by 52-37 percent margin in 1996. Bush won WV in 2000 52-46 and 2004 56-43.
Gore and Kerry won
OR,PA,WA,and WI.
Gore won NM
Kerry won NH.
Obama will win Bubba 1996 states in
1)FL
2)MO
3)NV
4)OH
and Dole 1996 states in
1)CO
2)IN
3)NC
4)VA
Hypocrisy when it comes to comments on polling was highlighted with today's ARG results in 7 states.
Obama suppporters have proclaimed the O+8 in ARG's interesting West Virginia poll shows Obama has a decent shot there and that it is not an outlier, while at the same time Obama supporters denounce ARG as a lousy pollster when it comes to ARG's O+1 finding in Minnesota. Classic cherrypicking.
Rasmussen today shows Michigan as hopeless for McCain (but maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy), but McCain with an expanding 7-point lead in Indiana. Selzer is the only pollster that shows an Obama lead there I think and Selzer's track record is only excellent inside Selzer's home state of Iowa (the source of Nate's high rating). Nate has noted that Selzer has had a Dem bias the last few months because of its demographic assumptions about youth turnout, among other things.
Rasmussen also shows Obama's leads in NC, FL, and NJ shrinking this week.
It is interesting that Gallup has Obama's national margin among RVs more than twice as big as Rasmussen's margin among LVs.
Oh, and about that ACORN issue? Those are people defrauding ACORN because they are being paid by number of voter registration forms they turn in... no one is intending on actually voting with those. C'mon, use some logic.
Logic isn't the point with these wingnuts. The point is that they want to be able to cry victimhood and have somebody to blame if they lose.
Let me remind everybody that this is the exact issue at the heart of the US Attorney firing scandal.
Rove told the prosecutors (who were all Republicans) to bring up a bunch of cases against ACORN. The prosecutors said OK. We'll get the evidence and throw the book at them. They came back a couple months later and said "There is no evidence. ACORN is innocent". Rove told them "Prosecute them anyway." They said no and got fired.
Look, ACORN registers over a million people. There is no doubt that a couple of hundred bad regs will slip in, but ACORN is pretty vigilant about weeding out the bad ones and extremely cooperative in helping to fix the problem.
The issue here isn't a couple of hundred bad registrations. The issue is that Republicans don't want ACORN helping to register poor and minority voters.
I have no problem with prosecuting real voter fraud, but you shouldn't be exaggerating the problem simply to stop a legitimate organization from serving a real good purpose.
ACORN has also been rounding up homeless people, sometimes by the busload, and registering them to vote.
ACORN used threat techniques like staking out bank exec homes to force lenders to make loans to minorities who otherwise did not qualify. ACORN is one of many culprits in the housing mess -- along with greedy banking execs, greedy house flippers, Dumbya, and Bawney Fwank (whose boyfriend was a Fannie Mae exec).
New Ras poll has O down 7 in Indiana. Man that state is looking like the toughest Battleground. On election day it will help portray exactly how this election will end.
Obama suppporters have proclaimed the O+8 in ARG's interesting West Virginia poll shows Obama has a decent shot there and that it is not an outlier, while at the same time Obama supporters denounce ARG as a lousy pollster when it comes to ARG's O+1 finding in Minnesota. Classic cherrypicking.
I don't think you are paying attention. I for one have never said that I think Obama is really up by 8 points in WV.
I think that what the WV poll does is highlight the need for new polling. I also think that it shows the race might be closer than we thought it was in WV.
ARG does have a bad record. I distrust its polls in both WV and MN. I think we ought to look at other evidence.
The other evidence in MN is fairly good for Obama.
The other evidence in WV is incomplete. We need more polls there.
ACORN has also been rounding up homeless people, sometimes by the busload, and registering them to vote.
You know I keep reading this on right wing sites.
My question is:
So???
You seem to act like homeless people don't have a right to vote. Is that what you are saying?
Homeless people are less than human and shouldn't get the same rights as everyone else.
I just want to be sure I understand the argument.
You are pointing this out as if registering homeless people is a bad thing and I want to know why.
Yes, the idea of voting as a right for only property owners went out of style long ago in this country.
Would be nice to see Obama (aka Barack America) or O'Biden (aka John McCain) campaign in Wv - means someone on their team is switched on to this site.
This ACORN thing is really irritating to me.
I'd like to know what specifically the rightwing thinks ACORN is doing wrong and what specifically they would like them to fix.
Registering poor and minority voters is a good thing. You need to have safeguards to make sure bad registrations don't slip through, but from everything I've read ACORN has safeguards.
If the rightwing is so concerned about the safeguard process, why don't they go down to their local ACORN office and volunteer to help work on the screening. ACORN (like all community organizations) could definitely use the help.
But thats not what the rightwing is really concerned with. They aren't afraid of the hundreds of bad registrations that get through. They are concerned with the millions of good ones.
Truth be told, they don't want any poor or minority people voting. They want to scare the hell out of people from volunteering or working with registration.
Prosecute them whether they did anything wrong or not. Maybe then they will think twice before trying to register poor people.
I think this is despicable and its an affront to democracy.
The states that both campaigns will be contesting after the elections -asking for recounts.
1)CO
2)FL
3)IN
4)MO
5)MT
6)NC
7)NV
8)OH
9)VA
10)WV.
Obama is going to win all of the
Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004 states
(IA,NM,NH,PA,MI,MN,OR,and WI)getting 264ev. Obama's margin in CO and VA will be great to contest. It will be greater than 2.5%.
narphorium,
I take these numbers in the table:
McCain loses OH/MI, wins election – 94 of 7388
McCain loses OH/PA/MI, win election – 61 of 7370
to mean that there were 7388 runs where McCain lost OH/MI and 94 runs where McCain lost OH/MI and won the election, so the 94 runs is a subset of the 7388 runs. This is currently listed at 1.27%, which is what you get if you just do 94/7388. It sounds like you're suggesting the numbers in the table represent 7388 runs where McCain lost OH/MI and lost the election and 94 runs where McCain lost OH/MI and won the election, which would give you 94/(7388+94)=1.26%. So I think the denominator listed is the total set of results considered, not the set of results considered not including the results which fall into the numerator.
It would be great if Nate chimed in to clear this up to explain what these numbers mean and let us know if this is a bug:
McCain loses OH/MI but wins PA, wins election – 33 of 18
I did email Nate about this BTW, but apparently he has a lot of email coming in and little time to read it.
Barack Obama- Cliff Huxtable
John McCain- Red Forman
Joe Biden- Danny Tanner
Sarah Palin- Kelly Bundy
McCain-
Charles Keating
G. Gordon Liddy
My first post, an enjoyable and addicting site. Much as I would enjoy animation, the effort is better spent.
Re Troopergate: While it won't change any minds, it will help domoralize GOP $upporters, as in 'even if she didn't do anything wrong to anyone undeserving, she can't stay out of trouble'. As a poster said above, she has flown too high too soon. But she has a real future as a rabble-rouser, reminds me of 60's radicals I saw in Berkeley, whipping up a peace rally enough to get a fringe group vandalizing afterwards.
Yeah Ralph Stanley, an idol of mine many years. I'll be seeing him here in Seattle in a week. Would love to hear O appear with him in mining country in W VA & WV.
Go O!
Is anyone else is concerned about this issue throwing the election in McCain's favour?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?ex=1381291200&en=d33d06adde38e20c&ei=5124
I've got to agree with Concho on Texas. I live in Houston, and even though there will a lot of people voting for Obama here, there are still a lot more people that will vote for McCain. There is a TON of money here and most of it comes from oil and energy. Not to mention, George Bush Sr. and Barbara live probably 5 miles from me here, so they've got a strong conservative group in Houston. West Texas is so damn red you wouldn't be able to imagine. I went to undergrad at Texas Tech. Even though many young voters vote for Democrats, I would say that Tech and A&M are the exceptions to that rule...both VERY conservative. I still get stupid emails from friends at school about Obama being a Muslim and crap like that. I've lived and worked in Dallas and San Antonio as well. Dallas would definitely lean conservative, but San Antonio is probably more liberal. Austin is the most liberal city in the state and home of the University of Texas. Obama should pull some good votes from there, but the population is far less than Houston, Dallas, or San Antonio. Overall though, Texas will probably still be red even though I'll be voting for Obama.
Is anyone else is concerned about this issue throwing the election in McCain's favour?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?ex=1381291200&en=d33d06adde38e20c&ei=5124
Not particularly.
1) The article does show that people are working on the problem and implies it will probably be fixed by elec day.
2) It doesn't appear to target Dems (or minority or other Dem leaning groups) disproportionately
3) The voters purged are infrequent voters -- which means they might not vote this time either.
4) The numbers, while reasonably large are still really small relative to the states' populations.
5) People can still cast provisionals and I think they'd ultimately be counted if needed.
I agree its an issue and should be followed up on, but its seems relatively minor in the grand scheme of things.
jeffrey,
thanks very much for your comments, i appreciate that perspective. :)
yuk to that tx poll. Just as my fellow posters up thread, need more polls in the lone star state.
And to w.virginia that Stanley add is the real deal and I am sure that has made an impact. Guess we'll know when more polls come out.
The WV polls will help Democrats unseat US Rep Shelly Moore Capito WV-2.
Stuart Rothenberg is predicting Democrats picking up 30-40 seats in the US House.
Alaska
1)AK-AL
Arizona
2)AZ-1
Colorado
3)CO-4
Connecticut
4)CT-4
Florida
5)FL-8
6)FL-21
7)FL-24
8)FL-25
Illinios
9)IL-10
10)IL-11
Louisiana
11)LA-4
Michigan
12)MI-7
13)MI-9
Minnesota
14)MN-3
Missouri
15)MO-6
16)MO-9
Nevada
17)NV-2
18)NV-3
New Jersey
19)NJ-3
20)NJ-7
New Mexico
21)NM-1
22)NM-2
New York
23)NY-13
24)NY-25
25)NY-26
26)NY-29
North Carolina
27)NC-8
Ohio
28)OH-1
29)OH-15
30)OH-16
Pennsylvania
31)PA-3
Virginia
32)VA-2
33)VA-11
Washington
34)WA-8
West Virginia
35)WV-2
The 2008 Presidential Race is turning into an episode of South Park.
John McCain is Eric Cartman
Barack Obama is Kyle Brafowski
Joe Biden is Stan Marsh
Sarah Palin is Kenny McCormick.
I still expect this thing to get close- check out what happens if we getan electoral tie
http://www.electoralcollegetie.com/
Barack Obama (380ev)
John McCain (158ev)
US Senate
Democrats 59
Republicans 41
US House
Democrats 271
Republicans 164
Governor
Democrats 30
Republicans 20
Obama should visit a place in West Virginia which shares a media market with Southern Ohio. That way, he gets the visual of campaigning in West Virgina but also taps into Ohio, which is undoubtedly more important. I think Bush did this in '04 - he visited a place in Southern New Jersey which was part of the Pennsylvania media market. I thoughr it was pretty clever.
I'm not surprised at the numbers ARG is giving for WV. My husband is from there, many of his family still live there. The UMWA have endorsed Obama, and a lot of people in the coal towns are voting him.
new blogger...just wondering how is PA still considered a "toss-up" state with avg polls ranging from 11-13 points.....mccain is getting pwned in bucks county BTW!
Seeing all the terrain around WV
turning blue over the past two weeks was leading me to believe that Obama had managed to crack the coalition that cemented the Appalachians Scotch-Irish to the rest of the South. It has long been said that if anyone would unite the Appalachians with African American's, whose economic plight is so similar, the political shift would be formidable. Racial hate politics used to work but it looks like this year the economic melt down and Obama's brilliant campaign has done what was only imagined and long thought impossible. The poll numbers prove it!! This is a culture shift of epic proportions.
I realize ARG isn't the best polling outfit, but I believe this one is for real. If you look at the cross tabs, they actually *oversampled* Republicans compared to the current registration numbers that I've seen.
And it makes sense. Over at Intrade I was touting WV to be the next state to turn 8 days ago. Why? Because they hadn't polled there since the whole economic mess hit the fan, and he had moved up by about 6 nationally during that time. The UMW union is behind him big time there, too.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2675.page
In closing, here's a thoughtful column by conservative Kathleen Parker, about how Obama can win Appalachia. I really really hope Obama visits WV soon. It's his for the taking.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/09/AR2008100903612.html
nkpolitics1279 said...
How come Obama is doing better in CO than in NM. Obama's margin in NM should be wider than CO and NV.
It's the friends and neighbors affect. McCain has more support in NM than another Republican would because he's from AZ.
Obama should visit a place in West Virginia which shares a media market with Southern Ohio. That way, he gets the visual of campaigning in West Virgina but also taps into Ohio, which is undoubtedly more important.
This is brilliant. You should e-mail the Obama campaign. Can't hurt.
This story makes a really good point: Why aren't the Dems trying harder to compete in WV?
Sure, Obama lost the primary, but it's not as though WV is reliably red. Before the two Bush votes, they voted not only for Clinton twice, but also for DUKAKIS. Just because the WV dems preferred Hillary over Barack doesn't mean there aren't plenty of people there who would vote for him in the general election if he did some campaigning directed at them.
Not that a state's voting history means everything. I'm betting things will be mighty close in IN this year...
I was just in Wheeling, WV and there were Obama signs everywhere (way more than McCain/Palin). I know it doesn't necessarily mean the turnout will be there for him on election day, but I was pleasantly surprised.
@alafair
Thanks for the recap of the Palin Rally
The miner thing in WV went mostly under the radar. I live in the state's capital city and work at the state capital, and I found out about it via Dailykos. If Obama comes here and everyone here learns about the miner's protest, he'll really have a fighting chance in WV. If he and Byrd do a rally together? People would be all, McCain who?
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