The idea of Barack Obama winning North Carolina or perhaps Indiana, I think we have gotten accustomed to. But Obama winning ... West Virginia, a state where he got barely a quarter of the vote in the Democratic primary?
That's what American Research Group says; in fact, it gives Obama a rather large, 8-point lead in the Mountaineer State. I'd have to say that I'm very, very skeptical of this one until I see it confirmed by another polling agency; this is exactly the sort of quirky result that ARG is (in)famous for.
Nevertheless, if Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania -- and all of the polls seem to think that he does -- that means he's had to have made at least some progress in the "Pennsyltucky" region in the interior of the state. And if he's made progress in Pennsyltucky, that probably means he's made progress in West Virginia. West Virginia -- like Pennsylvania -- is also a place where the Democrats retain a substantial edge in party identification, and perhaps the economy has really brought Democrats home. Indeed, for the past week or so, just about every poll taken in a Kerry state has shown Obama with a double-digit lead, with the minor exception of Minnesota, where the polling has been erratic.
In any event, there might be some merit in Obama paying a visit to West Virginia -- not because it's quite moved to the point where it's a swing state but because I think the symbolism of all of it would get him a lot of earned media.
Here are the rest of the numbers:
Obama slightly improved his position in the tracking polls today -- incorporating one full day of interviewing after the Nashville debate -- although most of that is the Diageo/Hotline poll having snapped back to Obama +6 after showing him ahead by just 1 yesterday. (You should continue to give top priority the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls as their large sample sizes make them less prone to this sort of result). We'll want to wait until the weekend before we can more fully evaluate the effects of the debate.
10.09.2008
Today's Polls, 10/9
@ 2:23 PM
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This is GREAT NEWS! For JOHN MCCAIN!!
I'd really like to see some more polling of Texas.
2nd Debate: Live Analysis
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 349, McCain 189
if mccain hailed from any other state, arizona would prob be blue too
An increase in the EV? I doubt this was the sort of update 'real joe' and ''dmitry' were expecting.
I just found this:
http://bearingdrift.com/2008/10/06/mark-warner-calls-nra-home-schoolers-people-of-faith-a-threat-then-lies-about-it-to-the-press/
Could this be trouble for a blue Virginia? Please, someone debunk this.
chi said...
An increase in the EV? I doubt this was the sort of update 'real joe' and ''dmitry' were expecting.
lol
i have lowered by expectation of a McCain victory
i don't live in a dream world
What IS the deal with McCain spending time in Iowa (twice in two weeks!)? Internals are said to show it closer there. And he's in Wisconsin, too, today?! What kind of numbers are they seeing?
And how telling is it that despite that ARG +1 in Minnesota, they are NOT there instead?
I'm just going to bask in all that blue.
My friend in Indiana is just stunned at how things are going there (but in a good way.) The fact that so many states are in play is giving a lot of people in unlikely places a chance to get involved and be personally invested in the outcome. Just as with the primaries, this is a very good thing for the country.
What is up with these "great news for John Mccain" posts? Is this some kind of inside joke that I'm not privy to, being a somewhat latecomer to 538? Or are Mccain supporters just THAT delusional?
Top priority to Gallup and Rasmussen, which are markedly far apart today?
A good day for Obama - still not convinced he's got a hope in hell here in GA - but I'm getting anxious about the voter suppression stories coming out today. Suppression and fraud are McCain's only hopes for a win, and while I want to believe that it's only cranks who talk about large-scale fraud, the stories about purging of voter rolls are nightmarish. Will the people who are lucky enough to get to vote elect Obama? I think they will, I really think they will. But damn if I don't wish this sort of 5h1t didn't happen.
An Obama landslide is nearly 4 times as likely as a McCain win?
Ouch!
real joe said, "lol
i have lowered by expectation of a McCain victory
i don't live in a dream world"
I'm glad to hear that you've resigned to reality.
McCain/Palin Supporters Make Me Sick.
I'm telling you, McCain going this Ayers route (after not having the balls to bring it up in person) just makes me absolutely despise this man. He is DISGUSTING. How could he call it a "radical" board? Created by a good friend of RONALD REAGAN for god sakes.
STUPID BILL AYERS THING.
superbagman - it's an inside joke, yes. FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
And Real Joe---you are a gentleman that does need to spout bullshit when supporting his candidate. Nice to see civility.
I'm hoping that McCain takes time in the last debate to just call out all the people who've pissed him off on the campaign trail in a last blaze of glory. A la "FU FU FU FU You're cool FU I'm OUT"
Obama has strong support from the workforce of the two domineering products that come from West Virginia. Coal being their primary, and corn is their primary crop.
These unions have a lot of pull. If the report of workers striking in a coal mine because NRA wanted to do a video of people against Obama isn't any indication for you. Not trying to be sexist but if the bread winner of the family is behind Obama, I'd assume the rest of the family falls in line. Obama is strong pro union worker and strong ethanol subsidy supporter.
Also, if you've got Byrd, an ex KKK guy pulling for him, many might be able to forgive and forget. I don't think McCain has done any kind of campaigning or marketing in this region so any spill over from Obama ads in Ohio and Virginia might be having an affect not well known.
I honestly wouldn't give up on our mountain neighbors just yet.
I'm surprised about WV, its like woah!
I would like to see more from MT and TX.
I really enjoy watching the red disappear from the Electoral Vote Distribution graphic. The graphic now looks like a blue porcupine (stegasaurus?) with a little red tail.
Democrat governor and only 5 points down? Here's hoping that Obama puts some money into Montana.
Roxanne, it seems to be from a 14-year old speech and was used against him in 2001.
Nate, are you (or have you already) gonna discuss voter roll purges such as was noted in the NYTimes?:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?scp=1&sq=voter%20rolls&st=cse
19 for TX?
I know I live in a conservative state but that seems way too far off the natl numbers.
Nate, the Economist YouGov poll supplies a number with leaners as well. I thought that was the number you would be using when available.
The Hidden Vote
I suspect we will see some curious results come election night with the pollsters and pundits being confounded by an electorate that resented being talked down to and browbeaten into supporting Obama.
While voters may have gotten used to voting for non-racially divisive black candidates in their local elections, the same cannot be said about the present election. Obama remains a singular novelty and a Rubicon that we must eventually cross. Hopefully we will do so captained one day by a black Republican! But this year we have been given the improbable candidacy of Barack Hussein Obama to consider. His thin resume. His radical associations. His hazy background. His left wing agenda. His militant wife about whom rumors persist. For many there are grave doubts.
But these doubts have been shouted down, driven underground in a calculated effort by the Obama campaign to brand all opposition to him as "racist". Intimidation tactics such as this are not calculated to win support, but to suppress its manifestation. Therein lies the rub for Obama. His strategy has not won him many votes, but rather has simply made the calculus of the election more difficult to perceive.
With Palin too we see a similar circumstance. The Democrats together with their media allies have done a good, if incomplete job, of trying to marginalize her as some sort of doltish idiot who cannot answer the simplest questions put to her. However, she might have been mishandled or found herself spooked in a couple of encounters with overtly hostile journalists, Palin acquitted herself extraordinarily well in her debate with Biden and her performance ranks among the greatest communication efforts we have seen in modern political history. Yet, according to the polls, she lost the debate.
She “lost” by margins that far outstrip the margins Obama has racked up in the polls. It seems to me that many among those who were impressed by her performance had been scared off from saying so by the demonization of her skills by not only Obama and the media, but also the entertainment industry, to the extent that they felt unsure that they could express their confidence in her and chose not to reveal themselves as so out of touch with apparent popular understanding, even if in their heart of hearts they root for her.
Here is how a feminist, liberal columnist for the Times of London saw matters:
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
There is something ineffably moving in those words. I cannot place it, but I feel it as does the author. Some things defy reason and ultimately we must go with our gut instinct.
Yes, my friends, there is a hidden vote out there, it is prepared to turn itself upon Obama and say “no” and to turn to Palin and say “yes”. This may yet tell the tale of the tape on November 4.
"Could this be trouble for a blue Virginia?"
Something that Mark Warner said 14 years ago? He's been the Governor for several years in the interim. I think people in Virginia have a pretty good handle on who Warner and Gilmore are.
Yes, I'm sure McCain is likely to drop a Half Baked reference in his final debate...
Peter we need to stop the copying and pasting---something new please.
"News" from CNN.com:
Headline: Obama in position to steal Virginia from GOP
(um, duh.)
Don't these guys read polling data. I mean not just their own, which has Obama ahead, but everyone else's too?
They should take this story, replace 'Virginia' with 'North Carolina', replace a few details and they could actually have afresh story - if they don't take three weeks to do it.
Just state the facts guys, quit trying so hard to be 'fair'.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/09/virginia.battleground/index.html
An Obama/Byrd speech or event in West Virginia could be one of the most symbolic moments in our history.
Plus, it would be a great idea for the long-term roots of the party (think 2012)
As always, continue to ignore petekent please. If you have a goat, he is only trying to get it.
Come back to us on November 5th to eat your crow, Pete Kent.
There is witchcraft, WHICHCRAFT, I SAY! It is all around us, and, although you can't see it, we know it is there!
Let's not stoop to his level Josh. Let his own words betray him.
Josh,
Please. Shut up.
Yours truly,
Everybody
I wonder if Nate has been keeping the data for these runs.
I would love to see an animation at the end of the map and the bar graph.
Being one of the voters who's trying to turn West Virginia blue again, I'm excited to hear this. I've noticed a huuuge difference in the number of ads on TV here; probably four or five McCain to one Obama. I'd love to see that change.
And a speech here? Dare I dream?
@superbagman: why yes, it is an inside joke. You can play too.
The formula is:
Delusional statement
Lots of caps
Lots of !!!!
Wrap up with "great news!!!!! for johnmccain!!!!"
Voila.
roxanne:
Could this be trouble for a blue Virginia?
No. This is another desperate move by the no-hope Gilmore campaign that won't convince anyone but their base. It's not even worth bothering to dig up the context for the fourteen-year-old quote, which would presumably show how they're distorting it. People know and like Warner; he gets 20% of the Republican vote in the latest SUSA poll. When this was brought up in the last debate (at least Gilmore has the guts to push his own smears, unlike McCain), Warner pointed out that his sister is a home-school teacher. In addition, the NRA didn't endorse either candidate when he ran for governor; it was pretty shocking at the time that they wouldn't endorse the Republican.
"Pennsyltucky" - You really can't get a decent latte there...
I know Pete Kent is a pathetic troll, but could he at least have the decency to come up with some new troll material? Jeez. It's this kind of lack of enthusiasm that is spelling doom for McCain and the GOP.
Obama is NOT 7 points higher in WV than MN. ARG is a ridiculous pollster.
SuperBagMan:
The joke is based on the habit of the press to spin pretty much every breaking news story as Good News For McCain, even when it patently wasn't. However, the behavior of the McCain campaign lately has made some of the media's McCain Kool-Aid drinkers decide to swear off the Cranky One.
we need to tell PPP to forget polling MO and find out if this WV thing is the real deal, if so, then i think this might be the end of the road for JOHN McCAIN
and one more thing
JOHN McCAIN, STOP CALLING ME YOUR FRIEND.
ARG is just sooo random. I think their state polls alone are too volatile. You need to take them all together, 20-30 of them, and then see where the race is at nationally. Still, West Virginia could use some polling. Virginia and Pennsylvania are getting boring.
The inside joke came from the primary. In many message boards a poster named "Vince Foster" would be the first to post in the thread and always say "This is great news for Hillary Clinton". It was almost always not -- thus the funny.
WooooHoooo!!!!
Don't it make your red eyes blue.
Now our big concern is voter suppression, which does have me worried.
And what will come out in the Troopergate report?
Love the new spin by Repubs: "with the economy this bad, it is great news that we are only down by single digits - it should be double digit. We are still well positioned to win."
Jillian. I guess I'm surprised to hear McCain has so much advertisement there in WV. I guess maybe they must share a lot of media markets with all the battle ground states surrounding them. (OH, PA, VA)
Pennsyltucky
Please, please, please. I was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. It is more conservative than the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas. However, it is nothing like Kentucky. (Yes, I've been to Kentucky.)
"The Pennsylvania T" is probably the best way of referring to the more conservative part of Pennsylvania.
Everyone,
ARG's polls are not accurate. It has to do with their methodology. I do not trust them AT ALL.
Even if the WV poll is dubious, it is bound to cause some heartburn (and work) for the McCain camp. So I'll take it and cross my fingers that it is backed up by further polls.
I too agree that WV is probably just some strange noise, but I can't help but smile when I think that some republicans will be freaking out over this.
First off, let me say how much I love this site. It gives me great pride to know that there are other Americans out there who are interested in doing real, competent, transparent analysis of real data at a time when smear and mudslinging unfortunately tends to dominate political conversation.
Anyway, I have a suggestion...
Not sure how easy or difficult this might be, but one thing that would be super cool would be to have a set of animations that show the development of some of the various charts and maps over time. I'm not sure how you build the graphics up for the site or what your data mechanisms look like on the back end, but I'd be happy to lend a hand to help make something like that happen if I can.
Keep up the good work.
so we see a small bump in the realistic best-case EC win, from 375 to 380.
If you have a goat, he is only trying to get it.
I have a snark to add to that, but I'll hold back :)
RE:ordinary average blogger - well, I too am from the "T", and MOSTLY agree with you - but there are moments...
Hey PeteKent,
Maybe if you keep posting that comment, it will become true.
ClaytonBen
I can believe the WV number for one reason: the Ralph Stanley radio ad. It kind of slipped under the radar of the national media, but it's a big deal for West Virginia.
I was stunned to see a "Yes on 8" ad on this site. I realize you need to make money, but to make it on my personal back by taking ad dollars to strip me of my civil rights in my home state?
I can't believe it. This is nothing like accepting McCain ads, can't you see the difference?
Benjamin,
DO NOT encourage him.
Has Nate joined the staff of The New Republic? See http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/09/today-s-polls-west-virginia.aspx
"Being one of the voters who's trying to turn West Virginia blue again, I'm excited to hear this. I've noticed a huuuge difference in the number of ads on TV here; probably four or five McCain to one Obama."
Hmmm...maybe this ARG poll isn't as whack as we think. If McCain is advertising heavily in the state, maybe he actually is in trouble.
One to two months ago, I was wondering why in heck McCain was advertising so heavily in Missouri, which I assumed was pretty safe for him. Turns out later polling showed the state to be a toss-up.
Christie,
Read the policy re advertising under the FAQ
Superbagman's question about insider jokes is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!!
Can anyone explain what differences there are between these public polls and internal ones? McCain is going back to Iowa, and since EVERY poll shows Obama ahead, by a lot in some, what reason would he possible have to go back there?
I would love to see Obama swing from New Mexico up through Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, and then down to North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. That'd make for one hell of a good road trip. Might not be enough time on the clock left for that sort of thing now, though.
I can't see TX being that far out, given the huge urban centers and college towns in the state.
Need more polling of TX. :)
Also, get on the horn with the Obama camp and tell them to go to WV!
All you need to know about ARG you see in two polls today:
MN Obama +1
WV Obama +8
WTF?! Seriously though, Obama maintains day in and day out a clear lead on every level: national polls, state polls, electoral college, message consistency, voter preference on the issues, and not to mention the money advantage. And though he may not need it, or perhaps due in part to it (i.e. all those registrations, voter contacts and what not are starting to show up in the polling) - he's still got that ground game advantage ace in the hole.
Hay, about that Warner thing. I dont know if its true or not, but I find it disrespectful. I'm not old enough to vote, I'm home-schoooled, and I'm definitely not a right winger. So Warner should be very careful about what he says. If anything, I'm too liberal, at least thats what my dad says.
olon97, That Ralph Stanley radio ad was awesome. I wonder if they are airing it already. That endorsement alone is gotta be worth a point or two in WV and western Virginia proper.
In other news...
Dow is about to drop below 9000
The Natl. Debt just went over 10 trillion (something like $85,000 per family)
Yikes!
I think PeteKent needs a reality check. If there is a hidden vote out there, it is the voters who are saying they support McCain but really are planning to vote for Obama, that would make a lot of sense in a historically red state.
And no one is going to vote republican just because of Palin, they still get Grandpa Mac in the process and no one wants him this year.
And just for the record, Biden cleaned Palin's clock in the debate, her Joe Sixpack routine got old in a hurry and she wouldn't answer any questions. And that is why her negatives go up each week.
The race is over and has been since Sept 15 the Grandpa Mac uttered the famous words; "The fundamentals of the economy are strong"........................
If Biden or Michelle are travelling by Bus, they should stop in Wheeling. It's right on I-70, and OH and PA are a stone's throw away.
winniechili,
I was wondering about the same thing. If there was anything in those interal polls in Iowa, wouldn't that show in Obama's internals too? The Obama campaign doesn't seem to be worried, but it is curious.
What is the Ralph Stanley radio ad about?
53% Obama vote + 43% McCain vote + 2% 'Other' vote + 2% 'Hidden' ohmygawdPalinissohawtandshehasaspecialneedschild vote =
CONGRATULATIONS TO PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA!!!!
He should schedule an event in West Virginia with Dr. Ralph Stanley who recently endorsed him. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUOfaIyv4Bs
Conveniently Dr. Stanley is appearing in WV on Oct. 23rd.
http://drralphstanley.com/events/index.shtml
I have never posted here before, but have been lurking for quite some time. the numbers fascinate me.
I am an Independent who lives in NC - just moved here. I went to the Palin rally to judge for myself. I'd be willing to give full commentary if anyone's interested.
However, the mood here in Eastern NC is changing. Lifelong republicans in my office are making jokes about Palin. A number of McCain signs on drive to work have disappeared. From the ground here, it looks like there are a lot of dispirited Republican voters out there. I've even heard a few comment that we "might be able to get out of the shadow of Jesse Helms". I can't say if there's a lot of enthusiasm for Obama, but there's def. apathy towards McCain.
I love how everyone is trying to figure out the rational for McCain's time allocation decisions. It is quite obvious that they long since abandoned thinking rationally. Plus, I mean what does his internal map look like, he is screwed all over the map.
Superbagman,
to your question: this (I think) started during the primaries when the polls kept improving every month in most states for Obama. The sarcastic comment was "That's GREAT NEWS for Hillary!!
so now Pete Kent is reduced to recycling "hidden vote" memes from the far right. Ah, Petey, we hardly knew ya...
As for ARG's fantasy world, where Obama can be up 8 in W VA and up 1 in Minny, you betcha, also, I can see Russia from my veranda.
That said, since it looks like McCain's pathetic Ayers guilt by association is not catching on with the MSM, due to that pesky economy (God, where ARE people's priorities or, as Bobby Dole liked to yell, where is the outrage?) we are at a very real point where the base of the GOP could be so demoralized that there could indeed be a Lieberman-free 60 Dem senate.
PeteKent... you talk about the "hidden vote"--and sound as woo-woo as devout Shiites talking about the Hidden Imam, and the folks heading up to the hilltops (having given away their earthly possessions) for the latest incarnation of the Jesus is coming back tomorrow, I calculated it from the Bible scam.
Trust me, the folks who go all mushy seeing Piper handed Trig (again...) were almost all in the bag for McPalin anyway. It's the ones who wonder why they almost never get to see Palin holding her own special needs baby who might be reconsidering. Isn't the Right's schtick that baby needs mommy? And a special needs baby needs mommy even more--not just being held by his not even pre-teen sister.
Hidden vote? You need to talk to a counselor about these delusions.
Dow just dropped under 9000!
/going to put $$ in a coffee can
//also buying a shovel
DOW is at 8980 and diving
You know, I took that ARG WV poll with more than a fair share of a grain of salt; however, I won't be too surprised if I see another more credible poll showing 'similar' numbers. WV is a blue-collar state and the mean income in the state is one of the lowest in the country. Mining is a big industry in the state, and the miners' union is solidly behind Barack. The current economic meltdown has caused people to snap out of their GOP trance. People are hurting. People are taking a second look at the Democratic candidate. And people are ready to take a chance on a new party leadership in the White House.
winniechili said...
"what reason would he possible have to go back there?"
Maybe he didn't think he pissed off enough people last time and wants to make sure everyone there realizes he's a big ol' jerk.
Or...Maybe he's going to make up since he took a big ol' dump on the Des Moise Register in the last interview.
Either that, or he's playing mind games with people at this point. Him going to Iowa will give people and maybe his clinging to hope doners some bit of satisfaction to keep donating to the McCain/Palin campaign fund.
@alafair
I'd be interested in your take on the Palin rally if you wouldn't mind...
Seriously though.
I've been mulling on this for a while. Back in June and July when Obama seemed to ditch his base and take some more centrist positions (FISA, some new drilling is OK), it pissed some of his supporters off.
But every move he has made since wrapping up the nomination has been to the center, whereas McCain's every move since Super Tuesday has been to the right. I'm having a hard time understanding this, but there it is.
You could write a book (and some will) about the multiple failures of his campaign. But McCain's self-de-maverickization this year has to be a strategic blunder of epic proportions. And it explains why 40-plus percent of voters are dead set against him. And it explains how he has essentially lost this election.
Not that I'm counting my chickens or anything.
Joseph,
Screw the coffee can...
I suggest forex. Look at MXN it Must be near a low
have you guys seen the rasmussen state polls yet?
"Hay, about that Warner thing. I dont know if its true or not, but I find it disrespectful. I'm not old enough to vote, I'm home-schoooled, and I'm definitely not a right winger. So Warner should be very careful about what he says. If anything, I'm too liberal, at least thats what my dad says."
I'm a VA resident (Democrat), and while I'm skeptical about it, it is a troubling and divisive thing to say. Just doing google searches, I see right-wingers up in arm but has anybody said where/when he said this, or have any real evidence that it's him? (The audio is really grainy....so much so that if they don't 'tell' you what he said, it's hard to tell.)
Anyway, I'd like to at least have the facts out there before people judge.
Yvonne,
The Ralph Stanley ad is amazingly simple and it boils down to: "I know him, he's a good man."
Link
Anyone who looks at this as just another celebrity endorsement is missing a lot beneath the surface.
If troopergate comes out heavily against Palin tommorow, the base is going to fall out from underneath McCain, and frankly thats all he has right now.
I can only fathom what the map will look like, IF that happens.
Even some of the media outlets have been letting go of the 'razor-thin-margin-too-close-to-call-statistical-dead-heat-anyone's-race' mantra and actually stating what those of us with polling data and a spreadsheet have been saying for weeks. It's not really that close people. It was the same way during the primaries - the storyline after Super Tuesday was always 'Obama leads by the narrowest of margins'. All a real journalist had to do is go to Wikipedia, copy their HTML chart into Excel, and play with numbers to find that the votes for Clinton just weren't there. Weren't for a long time.
PeteKent made me think of an 538-inspired project I worked on yesterday - an election night scorecard. (thanks PeteKent, now find a phonebooth and turn back into a rational non-koolaid-drinker)
These are the returns I am going to be interested in and when they come in:
Time State Electoral Votes
7:00 Indiana 11
7:00 Virginia 13
7:30 Ohio 20
8:00 Florida 27
8:00 Missouri 11
8:00 New Hampshire 4
8:30 North Carolina 15
9:00 Colorado 9
10:00 Nevada 5
By my way of thinking, McCain can only afford to lose NH or NV, but not both. My guess is by the poll closing times, the networks will not be able to call IN, VA, OH, FL, MO. Maybe they will call NH - we will see. If they call any of the first five for Obama, pop the corks, but I think the networks will be too cautious to do so until substatial numbers of returns come in.
I would love to see a more fleshed-out version of this as only Nate can do. Something that says "At X:00, if the networks call the XX race for Obama/McCain, you can expect YY and ZZ to follow"...
Cheers
@Peter kant
Hidden vote ?????
mmmhhhhhhhhh....
you are walking on a really thin ice my friend...
@real joe
I have to say that, while I've never met you and our politics disagree, you are the type of political junkie I love to talk to.
There are too many on both sides of the aisle that get so very wrapped up in protecting their candidate to remember we're all Americans and are allowed to disagree.
Sorry for my McCain moment. I have a temper too. It's one of the many reasons I'm not fit to be President. But PeteKent truly pisses me off. That anyone is propagating this "palling around with terrorists" BS just makes me want to vomit.
I just hope that people aren't stupid enough to fall for it again. We just can't take 4 more years.
I love Obama's line about it: "I can take 4 more weeks of attacks from John McCain, but America can't take 4 more years of George W. Bush's policies"
I do not think anyone on either side will be swayed by troopergate. The right has it branded as a partisan attack and the left already hates her. The middle is paying more attention to the top of the ticket
If Mercy and Sanity Prevail
All will bow before the power of the righteous and these polls will be like a leaf on the wind, blown away, forgotten and of no consequence.
Barack Obama has stated that his highest priority and first act will be to sign the "Freedom of Choice Act", a bill he co-sponsored, which bill would invalidate virtually all state and federal limitations on pre-birth murder, including this procedure (partial birth abortion):
"Dr. Haskell went in with forceps and grabbed the baby's legs and pulled them down into the birth canal. Then he delivered the baby's body and the arms; everything but the head. The doctor kept the head right inside the uterus. The baby's little fingers were clasping and unclasping, and his little feet were kicking. Then the doctor stuck the scissors in the back of his head, and the baby's arms jerked out, like a startle reaction, like a flinch, like a baby does when he thinks he is going to fall....The doctor opened up the scissors, stuck a high-powered suction tube into the opening, and sucked the baby's brains out. Now the baby went completely limp. He cut the umbilical cord and delivered the placenta. He threw the baby in a pan, along with the placenta and the instruments he had just used."
Imagine then that you were alive and voting in 1860 or 1864. For those of us committed to the cause of the innocents we see the truth for what it is and will never rationalize or excuse the murder of human life.
Human society is perfectible and inexorably heals itself. From the vantage point of a happier future, we will look back on this “modern” world and shudder just a little bit about the ignorance selfishness that would turn the womb, the cradle of life, into a slaughterhouse.
Some will be punished and some will be pardoned.
Have you done your part to rescue the babies?
Rasmussen
IN 49-47 McCain
NJ 50-42 Obama
NC 50-47 Obama
MI 56-40 Obama
To Pete Kent,
Your are right about the hidden voter. There are also more hidden voters that root for McCain and look at his service in the military, and his years in senate. But then they go home and realize that their 2 jobs are not helping them pay their bills, they are losing their homes, health insurance, and can't afford gas. They realize that McCain with his lovely 2nd wife is worth 300 million dollars-"how can they really relate to me and my struggles?" They see Palin who can't seem to answer a question from Katie Couric of all people- and say that if she won't answer what newspaper does she read, then what about a really tough question like, why is Medicare and Medicaid being cut by one trillion dollars? I know on November 4th those hidden voters will vote for Obama.
Rasmussen MI:
O56
M40
Booyah! As the French would say: c'est fini.
The recording, if it is him, was apparently made 14 years ago. Warner has served four years in the Governor's mansion in the intervening time. Do you seriously think that people in Virginia haven't made up their minds about Warner? They tried throwing this same crap in the '01 election, and it didn't work then either.
alafair, please share your thoughts on the rally.
The Daily Show - The Town Hall Debate
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/the-debate-stewart-style.html
matt thanks to troopergate. McCain is back on defense rather than offense.
So even if it doesnt hurt (which i think it will destroy the little morale left in the republican party)...it will eat away some valuable media attention and help run out the clock.
It definitely wont hurt Obama.
I've never understood why the Obama team keeps passing up West Virginia. Ok, so it's not big, not a lot of EVs, but it is so well placed that a stopover and a rally can hardly cause that much difficulty. Obama has proven over and over again that when people meet him up close, many who didn't think they would warm to him.
Obama doesn't just need to win: he must win overwhelmingly so there can be some consensus on the pain that lies ahead.
Murphy could have helped McCain. Now he is beyond help.
I think Barack could turn Texas with a visit or two.
If your regression dips to 3 or so, maybe he will.
Nate,
I think I remember you sayin that Obama should have spent more time in West Virginia.
I thought you were smoking. But now I see why. Even if the ARG poll is an outlier, it's still significant even if Obama is tied.
PeteKent:
Yes, I have done my part to rescue babies...
From bible-thumping, ignorant, holier-than-thou morons like yourself.
Hey, cnn.com is reporting the "news" that Obama is ahead in Virginia. Thanks, Nate, for telling me this about 10 days ago.
matt w, I agree. Troopergate is a non-issue. Anyone who cares even an iota about corruption in government, after the last decade, is no longer a Republican or even an independent.
Everyone who cares even the slightest bit about corruption in government is now a committed Democrat. I don't expect any kind of scandal or corruption, crookedness or bribery to change electoral numbers at all.
According to Rasmussen, Obama leads by 16 (!) in Michigan. 8 in New Jersey.
Crazy.
I agree that Troopergate will not likely be a big things, as the focus is on the top of the ticket. But, what can the report say given the palin stonewalling?
If the report says something like "although the full truth can not be known because of the refusal of the Governor and her staff to cooperate, it is clear that she abused her power in exerting undue pressure" I think it could be very damaging in that it would feel a lot like a repeat of Bush/Cheney.
New Rasmussen State #s
Florida
O-50
M-47
North Carolina
O-49
M-48
Indiana
O-43
M-50
Michigan
O-56
M-40
New Jersey
O-50
M-42
Slight tightening within the MOE in FL and NC, but O still leads. Indiana is a bit disappointing, but not unexpected. Strong #s in NJ and MI.
North Carolina is a pure tossup, not a lean Dem at this point.
edb,
I agree about the win big strategy. I think he should make a national ad buy with positive ads to help the pop vote totals. Maybe even directly target markets in CA, TX, and elswhere that feel ignored to boost turnout and morale.
IEM
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM08_WTA 0.806 0.815 0.810 0.810 0.842 0.823
REP08_WTA 0.182 0.192 0.181 0.181 0.192 0.186
McCain is operating on very very very thin ice now. If he thinks he can delicately reformulate the question; he can't. If he turns this in to an election on racism he will lose. But he won't be the only loser, Republican Party will lose too. For a very long time.
Looks like Michigan didn't like McCain cutting them loose.
I have a similar question to winniechili's. You often read about a campaign's "internals" -- which implies, at least to me, that the campaign somehow has better, or at least different polling information than the public polls. But in the heavily polled, important states, how could that be?
I understand that a campaign knows its own GOTV operation and other internal-to-the-campaign logistical sutff best. But how could their polling be significantly different that the polling info that is publicly available?
Zogby proving he is a worthless pollster, claiming his numbers are better and Obama has not closed the deal...right John. Didn't Fritz, your little puppy, go on XM POTUS and claim the race was tied last Friday, only to release numbers from your national interactive poll showing Obama up, and you had the gall to report the number in tenths of a percentage point?
Learnings from the election - Zogby is a pomopous ass who hires even bigger pompous asses, and he cannot poll.
2000 was pure luck!
some of the WV shift might be coming from Wheeling/Weirton panhandle too... they get most of their TV ads from Pittsburgh. There have been a lot of positive Obama ads coming across our stations here lately. These ads are going over well locally too.
This is a call to update the types of scenarios in the right side "scenario analysis" chart. Please raise a ruckus if you agree (not too loud, I love this site and don't want to come off like a whiner).
I think the scenario analysis is based on August assumptions about the state-by-state polls.
At this point, the scenarios I want to understand are all about how Obama could possible lose. There are only 930 or so cases out of 10,000 where Obama loses. What are the key states in those scenarios? As an Obama supporter, which states should I be most concerned with? How many scenarios have a McCain win despite losing one of VA, FL or OH? Is there any way for McCain to win without two of VA, NC, FL or OH? Is there a McCain path to victory that doesn't include CO? How about if McCain loses WI and MN -- does that leave him with any chance? Is MI still so relevant to be mentioned in 4 scenarios now that McCain pulled out? The chances of McCain winning all the Bush states only account for about 3% of the ~930 McCain victories, so how does he achieve the others in the model?
These are my biggest questions. Anyone else agree?
Nate (or anyone who knows the answer),
Could you please comment on the consistency of the R2K/Kos tracker vis-a-vis the other trackers? For a relatively small sample size, they seem to have very consistent results--only swinging a point or so per day even in the wildest times. This is true not only for the rolling averages, but for the daily figures. Does R2K have methodological differences from the other pollsters which would account for this?
Nothing to worry about with McCain going to Iowa. He's just confused about the whole primary and general election thing. He's thinking the GE is starting in Iowa
jslater-
The campaigns are often not polling the public at large, but polling particular demographics within swing states. This is very expensive, and yes, their polling is better than what we get. Half of what we get is crap - see ARG, Zogby interactive, etc.
@Nawaid
>JOHN McCAIN, STOP CALLING ME YOUR FRIEND.
This is getting on your nerves too, huh? It is about as 'folksy' as McCain gets. It is like when an associate at the fragrance counter at the department store looks down their nose at you and calls you "Sir" or "Ma'am", in a condecending tone, they are really calling you "B!+@#"
So now when McCain says "Listen, Friends", I really hear, "Listen up D!p$#!+s", because that is really what he is saying.
As great as Obama winning WV would be, it probably really isn't worth Obama's time and money to put much effort into it. The worse thing he could do would to get cocky at this point. He just needs to continue to solidify and strengthen his lead in the really important states to mitigate any potnetial unforseen circumstances. WV would be a completely moral victory, as there is no way he would lose Virginia, Ohio, NC or Penn if he wins in WV. He just needs 270 EVs, not 400.
Some of the republican commentators out there are beginning to sound like the Iraqi information minister...
I am originally from Iowa and I wonder what he is doing there also. I think Mccain is suffering the same confusion common to many foreigners:
Iowa...Ohio...Idaho
jslater,
Most campaigns are not just concerned with the horse race numbers. There are other indicators they poll for to suggest the kind of support each candidate has and specific issues and strengths the could exploit. For the most part the horse race numbers we all pay attention too are useless for campaigns.
mc9cain-
Hilarious!
Yes, John needs to spend alot of time in NH too - John, are you listening?
The Palin-McCain (Lynch) Mob
http://www.crooksandliars.com/silentpatriot/palin-mccain-mob
Purging of the Voting rolls has begun! Blocking Voters Appear Illegal
http://www.crooksandliars.com/john-amato/purging-voting-rolls-has-begun-blocking
Ordinary Average Blogger said...
Pennsyltucky
Please, please, please. I was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. It is more conservative than the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas. However, it is nothing like Kentucky. (Yes, I've been to Kentucky.)
"The Pennsylvania T" is probably the best way of referring to the more conservative part of Pennsylvania.
October 9, 2008 1:48 PM
Meh, itll still be Pennsyltucky in my book. Hell, Pennsyltucky starts even before you get into Pennsyltucky. Try going out into the depths of Montgomery county (where I am). The cornfields start as soon as you get outside of Plymouth-Whitemarsh township.
Rich,
The R2K/Kos Tracker hasn't been steady day to day. The daily internals showed that there was a pretty big swing down in the last 3 days and a big swing up since the debate. Averaged over 3 days is the only thing that kept it going up or down a point or two a day.
DOW is in freefall.
down over 200 points in just the last 30 minutes. down 360 overall today. now below 8900.
This is really BAD news
"But how could their polling be significantly different that the polling info that is publicly available?"
Possibly because they do message testing in their polling as well. So if Mac has reason to think that promising ____ will change minds, he may think it's worth it to try to move Iowa. I don't know what ___ would be, and it seems crazy to try and rescue Iowa when he's in danger of losing FL, OH, VA, NC, but there you go.
kevzhong and others:
It's a fourteen-year-old quote with no context pushed by a political opponent. That alone should lead you to treat it with great skepticism. But even if it's completely accurate and the context doesn't change the meaning, Warner's entire career in public office has happened since that time -- does it make more sense to judge him based on a single old quote, or on what he has actually done?
rasmussen just changed the NC and IN numbers. They had another poll up that had Obama winning by 3 in NC, and the article said that he expanded his lead from last week I dont know whats going on.
IN changed too
PeteKent -
Oooohhhh!! I get it now. You're an anti-Choice whack job type person. It all makes sense now, son.
Maybe I'll be able to take you and your ilk a little more seriously when you start caring about children AFTER they've been born. Yes, once you take a stand for guaranteed healthcare for children and making sure they have adequate and nutritious food to eat, your pathetic ranting against abortion will be a little easier to stomach.
Until then, you're just another social conservative freakazoid who simpers about abortion one minute and whines about taxes and welfare the next. You are dismissed.
Thanks, Brad.
I mean, um, Brad your answer to me was GREAT NEWS!!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!
It is funny how just a few months ago, the media really would spin anything as great news for McCain. Obama up 3-4 points in the polls? Why can't he "close the deal" in an election when any Dem should really be ahead 30-40?
WV is a strong union state, and union leaders have been standing strong for Barack Obama lately.
mc9cain-
No swing since the debate, didn't the R2K tracked annouince that the last three days have been O up 8,9, and 10? Pretty stable...
Partial birth abortion is not even a medical term. It is not accepted as a medical term by the AMA or ACOG. The procedure is a late stage D&E.
Less than 0.2% of ALL abortions performed in the U.S. are late stage D&E. Politicizing your religious views and using inaccurate language like "partial birth abortion" and attempting to pass off D&E as some kind of common everyday procedure is intellectual b.s.
PeteKent, go get a vasectomy if you don't want any "babies." Or use a condom. But get your b.s. political discourse out of the lives of women who need to make private personal decisions ONLY WITH THEIR DOCTOR. It's none of your fricking business.
Are you that small, PeteKent? Are you so small and devoid of any character or life of your own that you must butt into the lives of women you don't even know and want to make the most personal of decisions for us? Pathetic.
Matt W,
I hear what you're saying about McCain not really acting rationally right now, but if I was a Republican donor I would be livid! I mean, yeah, he isn't likely to win. But he has a feasible path if he simply puts all of his energy and resources into playing defense, and perhaps trying to pick off WI or MN (though I'd probably just stick to the defense). He isn't going to win IA. He's been behind there all year, it doesn't naturally lean very much to the GOP, and his anti-ethanol stance really hurts him. He should give it up, along with NM, MI, & PA. If he can defend the other Bush states, he's the next president. It's very unlikely but at least it's conceivable. If it was my money that was being spent I'd be furious about the decisions being made right now. Even if McCain isn't thinking rationally, his staff should be. These are the top pros in the GOP? They're making pretty obvious miscalculations as far as I can tell.
"Could you please comment on the consistency of the R2K/Kos tracker vis-a-vis the other trackers? For a relatively small sample size, they seem to have very consistent results--only swinging a point or so per day even in the wildest times. This is true not only for the rolling averages, but for the daily figures. Does R2K have methodological differences from the other pollsters which would account for this?"
If you look at R2000's internals, it looks to me like they must do very heavy weighting. They appear to weight by both Party ID and also by demographics (at least gender and race), all of which would tend to smooth things out a lot.
On the one hand, it probably makes their results much better for trying to identify trends. On the other hand, if some of their weights are way off, then their results will be consistent, but consistently wrong (although none of their weights leap out at me as being obviously wrong).
Thanks to you too, Matt W.
This Dow news, on the other hand, ain't great news for anyone.
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration blah blah I'm a spamming jagoff
Seriously, man, freaking stop.
Please, please, Sean, tell us what happened at Belmont! Let me be the 10,000th person to beg for this.
Also please fix the software so that anyone typing the words "Bradley effect" is immediately redirected to the FAQ or something.
Also I think this is an imposter Pete Kent. The Pete Kent we all knew and sort of enjoyed in spite of ourselves didn't cut and paste stuff and at least was often entertaining, in a road kill kind of way. Bring back the real Pete Kent!
Nothing to add except how addicted I am to this site. I used to smoke cigs and the last few years of it it was like this.
PeteKent is salivating at the prospect of the HIDDEN racist vote coming out in droves Nov 4. What a cocksucker.
jslater,
This is my guess as to what internal pollng numbers might be.
When we canvass here in VA, we collect information as to who is strong Obama, leaning Obama, undecided, leaning McCain or strong McCain. All this info goes into these programs used to do various thing I'd guess like target advertising maybe, target literature and depending on demographics of the district being canvassed, they could probably project out how well they will do in neighboring areas.
I'd assume both campaigns do this. When their machines start showing too little support in regions that should be overwhelmingly in their favor, they react, ala Michigan.
I might be way off but that is my guess.
West Virginia is one of the top 3 poorest states in the U.S.. Jobs & health care trump culture war crap any day of the week.
are the rasmussen #s comletely new or did they combine the polled voters from 4 days ago? In other words, they had Obama up 7 n florida and now 3. Is it a completely new poll or did they combine the two polls so that the most recent voters are voting about even?
If Obama is competitive in WV, then PA is in the bag already for Obama at +10 or more.
As for Indiana, the games have begun. The Republicans are not dedicating their ground game to door to door, let alone media. They are putting together a full scale effort to train the faithful working the polls to contest any voter who voted in the Democratic primary. A little birdie in the IN GOP ranks says they are going to demand provisional ballots for EVERY new registered voter at the polling sites....STATEWIDE!!!
The birdie in question is a 20 year friend of mine and GOP through and through. She was livid at the approach being pushed on them by McCain's people. She feels it could lose them a lot of GOP seats with 50/50 registration at risk at the Statehouse level. Not to mention that shoo-in GOP Gov. candidate Mitch Daniels lead in internal polling has gone from 16 in September to 5 this week. That is GOP internal polling, too!
McCain is all in at this time to drag it into the mud and sully the brand name of GOP even more. Even if it gives Dems the statehouse in these new battleground states.
My friends, if the GOP brand name is as popular as syphilis in Indiana, then the trends nationwide are making sense.
Thanks, Liberal_defender_of_Freedom.
I'll just add that as an Obama supporter in Ohio, it's nice to see a decent probability that it will go to Obama, after hearing weeks if not months of folks on my side bemoaning how "stubborn" the state seemed to be. Still could go either way, but I'm feeling optimistic.
Joe Kowalski said...
" Some of the republican commentators out there are beginning to sound like the Iraqi information minister..."
You mean Bagdad Bob? I loved that guy!!!
I live out in west Texas, and hate to say it, but this state is so red, they even cocored the river beteen us and oklahoma. Seriously, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso and the valley would be blue, the rest is really pretty much red sad to say,
CONCHO
jslater, i'm sure that there is some internal polling that the campaigns do but i'm guessing that they also put a lot of stock on their calling/canvassing numbers. here in central florida, there are always volunteers entering results of calls and canvassing. my understanding is that all registered democrats and independents are called and/or canvassed so based on those results (are you supporting o, leaning o, undecided, leaning m, supporting m) you have a lot of information that can be actually counted or generalized to a district, county, the state.
What the fuck is McCrypt Keeper doing campaigning in Iowa again?
Matt W said...
" DOW is at 8980 and diving"
Jim Cramer / Mad Money suggested 8,000 is the floor...
who has the ras #s? they're not up on their site. i assume members get a sneak peek?
Nate,
I posted in yesterday's thread regarding two bugs in the Scenario Analysis table. After the updated numbers for 10/9 were posted, these bugs are still present.
The first bug is very straightforward. The 4 lines that have "Obama loses OH" as the denominator do not have the same value for the denominator.
Obama loses OH, wins election – 1593 of 2423
Obama wins VA when losing OH – 1523 of 2422
Obama wins FL when losing OH – 1334 of 2423
Obama wins CO when losing OH – 1600 of 2423
More specifically, it is the Obama wins VA line that tends to have a denominator one lower than the others. This issue has been present for quite a long time, though it is not broken every single day (yesterday these numbers actually matched correctly).
The second bug is that the "McCain loses OH/MI, wins election" and "McCain loses OH/PA/MI, wins election" lines do not agree with each other. Since the second one is a wholly contained subset of the first, it is pretty clear that they are inconsistent. This has been present for at least a week.
McCain loses OH/MI, wins election – 94 of 7388
McCain loses OH/PA/MI, win election – 61 of 7370
These lines taken together lead to the following, which is clearly nonsensical:
McCain loses OH/MI but wins PA, wins election – 33 of 18
McCain could not have won the election 33 times in the 18 runs where he lost OH/MI but won PA.
I think the script has an error or two, but if I'm missing some obvious explanation for these, please let me know.
war hussein obama said...
rasmussen just changed the NC and IN numbers. They had another poll up that had Obama winning by 3 in NC, and the article said that he expanded his lead from last week I dont know whats going on.
IN changed too
WHAT ??
porridgegun said...
What the fuck is McCrypt Keeper doing campaigning in Iowa again?
McCain campaign is turning into a big joke
Joe Kowalski said...
Some of the republican commentators out there are beginning to sound like the Iraqi information minister...
LOL! Baghdad Bob is Back!!! First Dick Cheney http://thebluerepublic.com/Gallery/albums/Dustys-Album/cheney_baghdad_bob.jpg and now Rick Davis
very depressing to see the downfall
:-(
I have a 538 snapshot of Obama's numbers from yesterday, what I firmly believed to be his high point.
And a day later, he's even higher. Maybe this actually will be one of those Pacman things, where the Win Percentage will simply keep rising until Nov 4 and Obama's win.
Go Montana, go Indiana, go North Carolina, go West Virginia! And Nebraska, Georgia, heck, all of y'all go blue!
"What the fuck is McCrypt Keeper doing campaigning in Iowa again?"
Another wasted day. Makes no sense since the state has been trending +10 to Obama for a month now.
Maybe he got Iowa and Indiana confused?
"My friends, these cornfields all look the same. By the way, have I told you I'm against the ethanol subsidy unless it is extended to the oil industry...for oil? Friends, Iowans, and Prisoners...lend me your ear. I have not come here to bury my campaign, but to waste another day talking about Bill Ayers and other things you don't want to hear since your 401K is in the shitter."
Have you done your part to rescue the babies?
We have. We've been secretly slipping people like you contraceptives so you won't have any.
Go Montana, go Indiana, go North Carolina, go West Virginia! And Nebraska, Georgia, heck, all of y'all go blue!
4 years late...Dean was right.
Real Joe there were pages up earlier on rasmussen, that had Obama up 3 in NC and down 2 in Indiana, with current dates and articles.
Someone posted the links on va conservatives forum, and we even started discussing it, then suddenly the links changed.
Antmatic said...
New Rasmussen State #s
All I see is Jersey and Michigan. No other updates on their site. Where are you seeing the other #s?
Troopergate won't shatter the far right ("PARTISAN") -- but it will freak out the actual undecided vote. AND it will do real harm in AK. They happen to know that their overwhelmingly Republican legislature voted to investigate Troopergate. They know that the solidly Republican legislative council hasn't objected to the "partisan" goings-on. In short, that it's anything BUT a (minority) partisan attack on the governor.
She's in deep shit, and it's likely to drown her. Her ONLY escape looks like it's being elected VP... which is a thin reed hope these days.
Odds are that by spring, Palin will look like Icarus--made the mistake of flying high and the wax melted... nothing but broken feathers on the Cook Inlet. She's going to lose the bid for the vice presidency and go home where the attention from the national media has rooted up her scandals and misbehaviors at accelerated speed AND has humiliated Alaskans (who were proud that an Alaskan finally got national prominence...). She's got no real base of allies in the AKGOP, having risen by stabbing knives into Republicans who were caught in their own corrupt shorts (which isn't a bad thing in itself). But it means that she's not developed a network of allies. So now that she's going to be hanging out there on her own, she'll go down fast and hard--sort of like Spitzer (not that she deserves to be mentioned in the same company). Parnell will be governor, and the legislature will be preening itself for taking down a venal and corrupt governor, telling Alaskans that the GOP manure pile is gone....
Antmatic said...
New Rasmussen State #s
Florida
O-50
M-47
I think you can pretty much stop here. If Obama wins Florida, it's over. And, although I live in south Florida, it *feels* like he's winning here. I would honestly be surprised if McCain takes Florida.
I looked at Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana on Ras. Those pages have not been updated. The oly 2 updated as of now are Jersey and MI. I assume folks have info from paid subscriptions and see the numbers early?
eric, there were NC and IN and FL pages up a little before 3:00 on rasmussen
i visited the links myself.
Re: several comments above regarding TX...
I live in TX (specifically Austin, which is easily the most concentrated blue bit, and even here there is lots of support for McCain.) The Texas "good-ole-boy" mentality, continued support of the Bush dynasty, relatively heavy military presence, heavy christian influence, and various other factors mean that there is just no way Texas will swing Democratic in this election, as much as I would love to see otherwise. Obama has to be realistic about where he puts his energy, and TX is just not the right place for it.
Also, I personally know a few women who *are* effectively voting republican because of Palin. More accurately, they were women who are generally more or less Republican, but would have voted for Hillary if she had been the Democratic nominee. I know that's not exactly the same, but this contingent is a non-trivial segment of the voting populous, especially in TX.
Obama must meet those miners WV that ent on strike after the fox-blitz. I'm sure it was a turning point over there and that these folks are seen as heroes. A week ago there has been joyfull ridicule over a possible REAL JOE EFFECT, I believe many are taking it seriously now.
Have you done your part to rescue the babies?
It is an s.o.s. sent out telepathically,
Signs of our distress dont allow complacency,
We need restoration now of our integrity
And a drastic bold reminder of our morality,
The rectifying troop is here, the ones weve needed all these years
To stop the heinous wrongdoings and verify our moral benevolence as a people
Operation, operation rescue,
Theyre here to right our fall, theyve heard a troubled call,
Operation, operation rescue,
You wonder where they come from, but I just wonder why theyre here at all,
Ya-ya-ya-ya-ya (x3) ya-ya-ya-ya
Four Days in Denver: Behind the Scenes at the 2008 DNC
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eCeNPAaGVVY
What was Dean right about?
War Hussein Obama said...
eric, there were NC and IN and FL pages up a little before 3:00 on rasmussen
i visited the links myself.
They're not there now. I know how to surf that site. I'd find it if it were there.
Afreet said...
Re: several comments above regarding TX...
Yep, I used to live in Austin, live in Houston now. Unfortunately our state is Red. We have pockets of Dems, especially in the big cities. We're just outnumbered is all. Austin is bipolar as far as Cons and Libs.
Check out the Electoral Vote Distribution graph. Look at that little spike way way out at around the 445 EV mark. That's a serious Blue State blowout that's happening about 30 times in this simulation!
Real Joe,
We have all had candidates who disappointed us. To lose fair and square is one thing. But for McCain to dishonor his name by inciting racists at his and Sarah's rallies "What do we REALLY know about Obama" etc. is very sad and I know you don't support that. I think it would be a good thing for you to start a petition "Republicans against Racist Tactics" (or some other name) and get millions on-line to sign it. Perhaps it would make you feel like you made a difference in this big world.
Some of you may wonder about my tagname. Well it's part my name and part John McCain as I campaigned for him in 2000 before he got smeared by Bush. I too am so disappointed to find out that he isn't owning up to his character portrayal he painted in his books and in his previous campaign.
Taking nothing for granted, but let me dream anyway....assuming Obama continues on this track and wins with an overwhelming EV count, it might be worth watching FOX news channel on election night for it's entertainment value. I would like to see the men in white coats hauling Hannity away in a straigh jacket , yelling " Ayers, Wright, Rezko" the whole time!
If GA has moved to lean McCain now and NC is a tie/lean Obama applying same logic as Pennsyltucky to SC it must be getting closer as well...
GA is really a strong possibility...keep watching us..
From where are you getting this Rasmussen FL poll with O50 and M47? And why would Rasmussen release two polls in one week for the same state? His last poll of FL (O52, M45) was released this past Monday.
eric, yeah i know, rasmussen took them down...the links changed right before our eyes.
we had started discussing these polls already on VA Conservatives pollwatcher forum and had threads for them with links included
Um we are all screwed...
The DOW is now down over 550 points today.
This has huge ramifications politically in the election and beyond.
If Obama wins Florida, it's over.
My spouse and I (in Central Florida) have 2 bottles of the bubbly currently chilling in our fridge. On the night of the 4th, we break open one the instant when Amendment 2 fails to pass. We open the other the instant Obama is declared President-Elect. If the election goes the way its trending, we may have to drink pretty fast!
my god @ the dow, it just dropped another 200+ points
emonokari,
you may have to drink the second bottle first!
OMG
Dow now down more than 630
How will Montana go blue? Two words: Ron Paul.
Don't be surprised on Election Night if Paul carries 10 to 15% in Montana. These are true libertarians who are not wed to McCain. He is not "their type of Republican". They will sit on their hands or vote Paul in protest.
Looking at Montana's last five elections, I noticed the activity of third party (especially Libertarian support) among the top five in the nation. The trend with current polling could net the below result according to those numbers:
Obama 44.5
McCain 43.0
Paul 12.5
The polling of the biggest profile races with a third party a week previous to the elections were all D vs. R horserace questions. In each case the Republican lost 5 to 10 points on Election Day to the Libertarian. The Democrat gained 2 to 4 points in the polling booth from the poll the week previous.
The other four states with the biggest third party pulls on Election Day:
2. Indiana
3. Georgia
4. West Virginia
5. South Carolina
(6th? Alaska)
Ron Paul is on the ballot in all of these states and Obama is gaining on McCain's baseline daily in each.
Just something I investigated last night. Stats are stats, but they do show trends. This may be why McCain is going ugly early.
VOTM
that is like 100 points in 4 minutes!
@jnorthrop
Since the view of any rally is defined by your beliefs, I'll sum up mine. My main concerns are economy and protecting our Constitutional rights. I tend to be fiscally conservative. I've served (honorably) in the military. I voted for McCain in the 2000 primaries. I also took notes and pictures.
The crowds there were mixed age-wise, but not racially. I was one of a very small number of minorities there (I'm hispanic). the venue holds 8000, and I'd say they had a full house. Unsubstantiated rumor says there were extra tickets floating around right before the event - at least 3 registered Republicans got calls asking if they needed any more tickets on Monday.
There was a small but vocal crowd (about 30) protesters outside of the venue.
The opening benediction was a prayer to "shut the mouths of our opponents so that the truth may be heard" (direct quote). Also mentioned during the prayer was that "we consider her to be a modern day Ester" come to lead our nation back to the paths of righteousness.
Palin was 30 minutes late, so her speech was cut to 30 mins. It was a condensed version of what was heard in Florida - light on substance and heavy on negativity. There was the race-baiting, which seemed to hit well with certain segments of the crowd. The woman gives good speech - she's energetic and charismatic on stage. However, I was there to listen to ideas on how to fix things. I didn't hear any. Even Elizabeth Dole came across as angry.
I have never voted straight ticket in my life. I am considering it this year. I don't believe in punishing a good candidate because of their political party. I also don't believe that having an echo chamber in power is a Good Thing. However, given the acceptance or participation in such tactics, I cannot vote for any Republican who was there.
The Republican woman I went with was disappointed when we left. She said she was hoping for something different than Florida.
Chi said...
From where are you getting this Rasmussen FL poll with O50 and M47? And why would Rasmussen release two polls in one week for the same state? His last poll of FL (O52, M45) was released this past Monday.
Ras has been doing this recently where they have a Sunday poll release and then a Thursday. I'd guess their reports are correct. They're just not there now. I want to look at the numbers because I'm a little confuesed as to how for instance Florida closed from 7 points to 3 by the same poller in 4 days. i want to see if they combined earlier data or it's a 100% brand new poll. If they combined a 7 point Obama poll with other data, the second half would have to be aobut McCain +1 to get an BOama +3. Same with NC from ++3 to +1 and Indiana looks strange too. All of the pollsters seem to have some outliers, but this particularyl peculiar. All 3 of those states shifted heavily toward McCain over 4 days and Michigan is O+16. It's just weird.
Holy Tanking DOW Batman!!!
what are the new Ras numbers ?
Look for Obama to start looking good in Montana...
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