As the political world's focus shifts to the second presidential debate in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1 favorte to win the election in November.
Both state and national polls are contributing to this result. Obama remains at his strongest-ever levels in the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, leading McCain by 8 and 9 points, respectively. Although some of the other tracking polls -- like Diageo/Hotline and the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll -- show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in the model.
Obama also gets a monster number from SurveyUSA in Pennsylvania, which has him leading by 15 points, up from a 6-point lead two weeks ago. SurveyUSA polls can be a bit volatile, but with that said, we now have multiple polls (Quinnipiac, Morning Call, West Chester/NPR) suggesting that Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. We also show Pennsylvania moving back ahead of Michigan, projecting an 8.7-point win for Obama there as opposed to 8.4 points in the Wolverine State. The good news for McCain is that Pennsylvania is one of those states with absolutely no form of early voting, so while he's got a lot of ground to make up, he wouldn't be penalized for doing so late.
The set of CNN polling also contains good news for Obama, though CNN polls -- which have had a Democratic lean this cycle -- usually do. New Hampshire is another place where Obama's numbers have improved recently; when coupled with his newfound strength in Pennsylvania, our model now assigns Obama a 69 percent chance to hold onto all of John Kerry's blue states from 2004.
McCain needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight's debate, which features McCain's preferred town hall format, might be his best remaining opportunity.
Polling follows.
10.07.2008
Today's Polls, 10/7
@ 2:02 PM
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284 comments
LOL @ Gwen. Some people are so darn pathetic you can't help but laugh at them and Gwen is one of those darn pathetic people.
The Palin Conundrum: It’s the Baby
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
How very perceptively spotted.
The moment of truth and introspection stuns me with its hopefulness.
A crack is opening up I think in the feminist world. The fissure will be complete when authors like Ms. Turner allow themselves to judge this remarkable woman under the same terms and along the same curve they judge male politicians, not least of which is Barack Obama.
Petekent, I can't even take that post seriously. You actually wasted time to type that nonsense?
Hold on everyone - Pete is about to tell us "Get off of my lawan!"
Wow. I never thought I'd see the day that Americans - even the vilest liberal trash on here - would adopt the name Hussein as a gesture to endorse a president because of their utter hatred and contempt for this country and to stand in defiance of President Bush or Senator McCain.
Obviously you hold them in high regard. Good for you, but keep in mind they've destabilized the world, given away the assets of the financial institutions to their friends and families, sold out basic civil rights, tortured innocent people, broke the geneva conventions and tried to end democracy. For some people that's compares a bit to what Hussein was all about, so they are making jokes about it.
Apart from that don't forget who brought up Hussein in the first place.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/06/politics/fromtheroad/entry4504484.shtml
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-does-nothing-as-cr_n_132366.html
So the first debate was supposed to be McCain's best because it focused on foreign policy, he basically lost that debate.
Now this is supposed to be his best because it's a town hall.
I'm guessing the third debate will be his best as well, but I haven't heard why yet. Any thoughts?
The culture wars are over.
Pete Kent lost.
He knows it. He tries to tell himself otherwise, but he knows deep in his heart he's trying to keep his sandcastle on the beach from washing away in the rising tide.
Goodbye, chump.
gwen jones,
We're all a little dumber for having read your screed. Don't let door hit you on your fat ass on the way out.
Another Mike Hussein
Pete Kent:-
Is the "crack opening in the feminist world" that you posit as based in fact as your "major structural realignment" in the US electorate after the pick of Palin? I'm asking as I would like to assign a weighting to your opinion. The structural realignment has a weighting of 0 and I shall give this "crack" a 0 too.
I would take the time to respond to Pete, but I'm not sure he knows how to read. Don't waste your time.
Will Gwen Jones really keep her promise never to post again? I hope so. Anybody who thinks that the name "Hussein" (which, I believe, means "blessed" in Arabic) necessarily shows "hatred and contempt" is obviously a bit unhinged. She seems a bit like that guy at a McCain/Palin rally who yelled "kill him" after hearing some of the more delusional, rabble-rousing lies about the Obama-Ayers relationship.
All of us who think of ourselves as decent people really have to redouble our efforts to remain calm, civilized and polite -- and not give the nutcases any unnecessary provocation.
31 days since the "fundamental shift" towards McCain-Palin. =)
I think Pete is working on points from the spread the word campaign from McCain's site to get a free Sarah Palin coffee mug where the clothes disappear and she's in a bikini when hot liquids are poured into the cup.
PeteKent proclaimed the campaign "suspension" a "brilliant move" that would show America who was a true "leader".
the angry illogical terror troll convinced me to change my display name
Hussein in the membrane!
For the record, the name "Hussein" means "good boy or good-looking boy" in Arabic. Fairly innocent, isn't it?
Actually, Another Mike, I had the misfortune of attending a talk by Mark Crispin Miller in which he implied just that very thing. He's rather far gone in his conspiracy claims and hasn't presented any hard evidence for anything.
All of us who think of ourselves as decent people really have to redouble our efforts to remain calm, civilized and polite -- and not give the nutcases any unnecessary provocation.
@MandyW,
While your response appears noble and even-keeled, the unfortunate thing is that 95% of the responses to Gwen essentially called her "stupid" or "fucking idiot" and not to let the door hit her ass on the way out.
It's hard to claim to be on the side of civility and that you are standing up "against" nutcases when such vile and nutty behavior was unleashed against Gwen because of her comments.
Not necessarily an indictment of you, but I'm just making an independent observation in my humble opinion.
It's interesting to look at the very ends of the EV distribution graph. McCain has about 50 EV that Obama never gets.
Obama? He has 180.
ThinkingMan: yes, but Nate has complex voter demo models that show some tendency for certain states to go together. I'm wondering what, specifically, he sees happening up on that end of the chart.
Any reason why RCP isn't showing the Ohio PPP poll?
can anybody link to those new Rass Polls?
I'm blinking at those two new Indiana polls; they're the first new ones in a couple of weeks, and yesterday I noticed that 538 had Obama pegged at +0.5 in IN. The new polls are a tie and a lead for McCain. Surely this implies that the model is being optimistic about Indiana? It'll be interesting to see what results emerge if Seltzer polls the state again soon, but for now, perhaps we should take the model with a pinch of salt.
@thene: I think the primary reason the projection in IN is better than the polls is because the polls were in the field a few days prior to the current national polling, which has improved. Older state polls are adjusted for national trends.
Yes good pont, polls are a few days older then the projection.
Als -3 from-6 and tie from -6 and tie -1 is moving towards the projection, the diffence between thos two polls and the projection on the polling date probably was about 2% well within MoE. Which only goes to show how well the projection predict upcoming polls on average.
Petekent,
How can you say we don't know anything about Obama's background? He wrote a whole book about it, that is both honest and pretty dam inclusive, maybe you'd like to read it? Or maybe instead you would just like to play the ignorant Republican game of smear smear smear.
Here is a looooong article from the latest "Rolling Stone" expounding on McCain's long list of faults:
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/23316912/makebelieve_maverick/print
vanessa said...
can anybody link to those new Rass Polls?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
petekent: Obama is not a leader and is not by virtue of experience qualified to be President.
Well, W and Cheney and Rumsfeld should have done a great job, since they were so experienced. And Lincoln must have been terrible, since he had less experience than Obama.
The whole "experience" argument is a canard, isn't it? If you had one candidate who had great positions on all the issues but had little experience, or a candidate who had lots of experience but was terrible on the issues, who would you vote for?
It's not about experience, it's about judgment. And I hold Palin to the same standard. Her problem is not that she lacks experience, it's that she's uninformed, apparently uncurious, and lacks judgment.
Worse his background and bio remain hazy with numerous shadowy figures threatening to burst from the periphery to center stage.
The NY Times did a lengthy piece on Ayers and Obama. There's simply not much there. And plenty of people have been on university committees with Ayers, taken classes from Ayers, served on the charitable board with Ayers...are they now all untrustworthy secret radicals?
Eagerly awaiting a response on both points.
"Wow. I never thought I'd see the day that Americans - even the vilest liberal trash on here - would adopt the name Hussein as a gesture to endorse a president because of their utter hatred and contempt for this country and to stand in defiance of President Bush or Senator McCain.
This site easily has the most hate-filled Americans - far worse than DailyKos - and not only was this my first and last post ever, I will never visit this site again. I can't bear to watch traitors perpetuate hate about this country."
This person is preaching about 'hate'?
Damn, I just bought that ironymeter, too! And it was a heavy-duty model, but it didn't have a prayer here.
Nate,
Ever since you explained why the GW Battleground poll showed consistently numbers skewed toward McCain, (the polls failure to weight properly for age) the polls have swung toward Obama and are now much more in line with Rasmussen and Gallup. Did they change their methodology, perhaps in response to your criticism? Or has McCain fallen out of favor with older voters?
Gerbie:
Good points, thx :-)
Hey another Mike.
McCain didn't want to do town halls, because he thought he was better than Obama (as a matter of fact, McCain has made some of his biggest blunders, in the town hall format).
McCain wanted to do town halls, because he needed the free publicity over Obama. Because McCain knew he was behind, and nobody would pay attention to him otherwise.
Anyone up for some hate speech? Palin in FL right now HERE.
Maybe we'll hear a couple N bombs today from her new hate rally.
Since January, the Florida Democratic Party has had a net gain of 415,580 voters, while the Republican Party of Florida has only gained 169,841. This shows that the gap between Democrats and Republicans in Florida has grown by 245,739 voters this year alone.
Pete Kent = Karl Hussein Rove
Chris Cillizza reports today that in "The Fix", the Washington Post Politics blog, that Obama is outspending McCain nearly 3-to-1 on TV. It would be interesting to see a correlation of polling results vs. campaign spending on advertising.
It's my hunch that at least some of McCain's good poll showing in the last summer was due to the imbalance of advertising (McCain spending a whole lot of unlimited primary funds to try to dent Obama's image; Obama concentrating on ground organization, and reserving funds for the final push.)
Are there any facts to prove or disprove this hypothesis?
Please don't give attention to trolls like PeteKent who are astroturfing. He doesn't have an intelligent, original thought of his own so he is going w/ the cut and paste strategy. Rather pathetic.
Shap@2:15: It is now known that the Gates of Hell are, in fact, on the Pakistani border.
By the way - Dow down 450+, while Palin obsesses over someone's middle name.
"Chris Cillizza reports today that in "The Fix", the Washington Post Politics blog, that Obama is outspending McCain nearly 3-to-1 on TV. It would be interesting to see a correlation of polling results vs. campaign spending on advertising."
This wouldn't surprise me. Living in a non-Battleground state (Illinois), I only see national ads, and they're all the Obama health care plan ad. He's dropping the coin for national coverage, McCain can't or isn't.
OK. I can understand cheering for a candidate but this Palin rally is kind of odd. The crowd cheers madly after every single sentence.
I guess they are making up for the lack of enthusiasm McCain fills them with or something.
By the way - Dow down 450+, while Palin obsesses over someone's middle name
@PA John,
Yes, you are right. As Governor of Alaska, she has every ability to step in and do something to stabilize the market. How dare she not use that immense power she has in that position.
OK. I can understand cheering for a candidate but this Obama rally is kind of odd. The crowd cheers madly after every single sentence
DOW closed down 5% today
500 points down
Nasdaq Down 5%
S&P 500 Down 5%
Dow Down 508 points now for the day. Nasdaq down 108 (nearly 6%)..
"Yes, you are right. As Governor of Alaska, she has every ability to step in and do something to stabilize the market. How dare she not use that immense power she has in that position."
The point is the economy is a mess and they would rather talk about nonsense. You missed the point.
"Teddy B. said...
OK. I can understand cheering for a candidate but this Obama rally is kind of odd. The crowd cheers madly after every single sentence"
Seriously Teddy. Watch the rally. It's not normal. It's like some sort of neo-nationalism or something. I can't place my finger on it.
Maybe it's because I've never experienced political rally's or never payed attention but the things she is saying don't seem like things people should go bananas over.
Well, you missed my point. Which was to basically say what the hell do you expect her to say?
Everybody knows the economy is struggling. The market being down so much today is just another part of the narrative, but it's hardly anything we haven't already seen.
If she made a two-hour speech extolling every point of her and McCain's economic plan, I have a feeling you would still lambast her for being an idiot or out of touch.
So what's the point?!
If she made a 15 minute speech about the McCain/Palin economic plan, that would be nice...and the first time anyone from the campaign spoke in regards to a real plan.
The point is McCain has yet to say anything even remotely coherent about the economy except "we will cut taxes".
McCain only by 15 in Alaska?
In case you missed it, here is a link to the editorial in the New Yorker endorsing Barack Obama for President...lays out the entire sad scenario of this awful administration and how Obama is the candidate best suited for the immense problems we now face:
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/10/13/081013taco_talk_editors?yrail
Here it the final paragraph...beautifully written:
We cannot expect one man to heal every wound, to solve every major crisis of policy. So much of the Presidency, as they say, is a matter of waking up in the morning and trying to drink from a fire hydrant. In the quiet of the Oval Office, the noise of immediate demands can be deafening. And yet Obama has precisely the temperament to shut out the noise when necessary and concentrate on the essential. The election of Obama—a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of twenty-first-century America—would, at a stroke, reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. His ascendance to the Presidency would be a symbolic culmination of the civil- and voting-rights acts of the nineteen-sixties and the century-long struggles for equality that preceded them. It could not help but say something encouraging, even exhilarating, about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its textbooks. At a moment of economic calamity, international perplexity, political failure, and battered morale, America needs both uplift and realism, both change and steadiness. It needs a leader temperamentally, intellectually, and emotionally attuned to the complexities of our troubled globe.
That leader’s name is Barack Obama.
Don't like the "Hussein" stuff?
Fight back. Give Sheriff Mike Scott a call,
Someone will answer, just called and they pick up saying "Sheriff's office"
239-477-1000
sheriff@sheriffleefl.org
from their site. all public info.
new thread
"If she made a two-hour speech extolling every point of her and McCain's economic plan"
I'd wonder how many times she repeated the 2 minute version. Because the plan just isn't there. There's nothing. It's vetoing every earmark and freezing all spending and somehow that'll balance the budget. The end. There's a reason why 81% of economists support Obama's plan and think he'll appoint better advisors.
Lovely map. Blue is my FAVORITE color.
Where's Muleskinner?
Re: "Assuming an Obama victory, I am glad to see these latest extremist rallies by the GOP. It brings the Dixiecrat base to the foreground. Their existence and influence have been around in the GOP since 1968, but it was always coded and downplayed just enough that others could dismiss it. Now, it is coming out explicitly. Thankfully, sunshine is the best disinfectant."
I totally agree. Bring them up to the surface and squash them like bugs.
In response to the GOP "Make A Wish" polling history buffs:
2004 Tracking polls @10/7/2004:
ABC: Bush 49 Kerry 47 (Bush+2)
AP: B50 K46 (Bush+4)
Marist: B47 K46 (Bush+1)
Rusmussen: B48 K47 (Bush+1)
Zogby: B46 K44 (Bush+2)
ICR: B51 K44 (Bush+7)
ARG: B46 K47 (Kerry+1)
Fox News: B47 K45 (Bush+2)
On this date, the candidates were trending within the MoE, although Rasumussen showed Bush pulling away from Kerry.
So keep on believing that history is somehow on your side....even when it ain't.
Sourcehttp://www.pstrategies.com/publications/20041008_psi.pdf
PeteKent- get all your hate out now, because your allegiance to our flag will require you to be respectful of President Obama after he's elected, and your duty as an American is to support his decisions no matter what you believe.
After all, that's the standard you guys demanded with President Bush....
"Because the plan just isn't there. There's nothing."
If it's in a Palin speech, I believe the correct word is nothin'. ;)
Wow, the people who are trolling are just trying to rack up Maverick Points are really obvious here. Come on. You can be a McCain supporter and make decent, rational comments. Give it a shot.
There's less than a month to go and the news just keeps getting better for Obama. As a supporter, I love seeing. Though the pessimist in me thinks his support will peak and then drop off a little unless McCain makes another big mistake. I think the election will be closer than the polls are showing today, but I don't have a good reason for it. As Colbert would say, I'm just thinking with my gut. I should probably stop that.
PeteKent,
First, let's ask the simple question, what is the final conclusion you want to make regarding your guilt by association remark? If you claim Obama is associated with shady characters, what does this indicate? Are you saying that Obama is a terrrorist? If yes, okay, then you are accusing the Democratic Party Nominee for President of being a terrorist. Say that statement over and over a few times. Yell, it out at the top of your lungs if you wish. And then take a deep breath and ask yourself how rational does that sound?
Now, take your own candidates, Gov. Palin especially. Would you apply the same standard to her? Her husband was for a number of years a registered member of a political party that espoused having the State of Alaska secede from the United States. She even attend some of these political party's events with him. Should we apply the same standard to her and not trust her because of who she associates with?
I think the error in this guilt by association effort is that it makes the accusers guilty of the same ethical crime as Senator Joseph McCarthy. Sen. McCarthy led witch hunts against individuals based on hearsay and association. Are you wishing to be as intolerant and unethical as McCarthy?
Next, I have concerns about your particular use of Sen. Obama's middle name. Rarely do we write out the full middle names of any political candidate. In news articles, discussions, and interviews, almost universally the middle names of politicians are simply not mentioned or only noted by the initial, as in 'W.' for President Bush. Your use of the middle name within the context of your accusatory statements would indicate there is a desire to highlight a questionable nature about the ethnic quality of Sen. Obama's middle name. That sir is prejudice.
Finally, your idea of a hidden majority is not supported by any fact, and I'm not mentioning polls. I'm talking about organizational ground operations. McCain's ground forces are anemic in numbers with far few offices than his opponent and a volunteer force that is almost non-existant compared to the vast numbers of Obama volunteer supporters.
Sir, in short, all your arguments have no rational or reasonable basis. I'm sorry to break the news to you.
Looks like the McNasties have found this site. I guess anyone who supports Obama-Biden is now a "domestic terrorist". If so, label me one, with pride. If there is anyone who has been a "domestic terrorist", it's been the Bush-Cheney regime.
But I guess when you're sinking in the polls faster than the Titanic, the only thing left to do is smear.
I just thought I should point out that CNN actually gave McCain a five point lead in Indiana 51-46 not 48-46. Thought you might want to correct that.
I saw you on Olberman and decided to check the sight out. I like it alot and feel like you have an accurate grasp on the election. Good job
Fuck the Republithugs and their awful fucking smear tactics. Those neo-cons are the bastards who are the terrorists.
I'm so ready for an Obama administration and not Lucifer (W) and the Beast (Cheney) at the helm anymore.
The first thing Obama should do is put them on trial for war crimes. Abso-freaking-lutely!
It's coming down to some serious shit, folks, the right-wing neo-con freedom hating scum are tring to burn our liberties to the ground.
It's time to take action. It's time to stand up to the conservatives. It's time for war. They drew the lines. They wanted a battle. Now they're going to get it.
I'm calling all of my liberal brothers to band together to join a new coalition for a new tomorrow - one where we can eradicate those useless fucking conservatives once and for all. I don't care if it takes an all-out genocide to get it done either.
Fuck the Republicans!!!!
I have to say, some of the freeper/other far-right site comments about polls are pretty hilarious to read right now.
For instance, seeing people say that Scott Rasmussen was 'in the tank for Obama' had me in stitches.
On the really, REALLY wingnut sites (see: some rabid ex-Hillary anti-Obama webpages), there was a thread about how, get this: BILL O'REILLY IS IN THE TANK FOR OBAMA, and only Sean Hannity was left 'on their side'.
The desperation is palpable, and hilarious.
Don't screw it up in a major way in the last two debates and this is all yours, Barack.
If she made a two-hour speech extolling every point of her and McCain's economic plan, I have a feeling you would still lambast her for being an idiot or out of touch.
If she made a 5-minute speech extolling every virtue of her and McCain's economic plan, you'd have to listen to the flute for 5 minutes.
@moondancer, 1:18pm:
"Erratic is good. It plays to underlying fears that McCain is a character from Dr Strangelove. It's my main fear of him. He's an unstable hothead."
YES. McCain's now driving the Strangelove Express - and that's not a bus I want to be on.
Gwen Jones, you realize that Hussein means "handsome one" don't you? Really don't these right wing nutjobs have anything of substance? Seriously I'll take anything
Hurray! PeteKent is back to serve as the donkey for all of us to pin tails on. Apparently he hasn't actually seen "Million Dollar Baby," since he doesn't seem to know how it ends [SPOILER ALERT!]
she dies.
Re: vote suppression. I have a lot of respect for Greg Palast but sometimes he writes from the perspective "I am pretty much the only one who has figured this danger out," when actually lots of people are paying attention to it. There is a team of (reportedly, but I don't remember now where I saw this number so caveat emptor) 10,000 or so lawyers fanned out through all kinds of states challenging voter caging, the "lose your home lose your vote" in MI and the like. The Obama campaign has called for lawyers to volunteer as poll observers also. Finally, we have more Democratic governors and Secretaries of State than in 2004, so the scope for any anti-Democratic shenanigans is more limited.
Danel
Whenever a poll includes third party numbers, nate uses that version of the poll.
This is a great site. Thanks for the work.
Tonight, as soon as McCain says the word "maverick" again, Obama should retort:
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
PeteKent is Joe McCarthy's illegitmate grandson.
Is it me or will we be saying this SAME EXACT THING come the next debate. We said it in the first one, we will say it in this one, and we will say it the last one. We are putting it on McCain's grumpy ass and we won't let up until the 5th.
I find it unsettling that every ad on this site thus far has been one of those NewsMax "Obama finished" ads, or the Sarah Palin "Proven Maverick" ads. Interesting.
ACORN was raided in Vegas today and caught registering the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys. The 7th state they've been caught engaging in fraud in so far this year. Story linked on RCP.
I see Real Clear Politics has included the new Reuters/Zogby tracker in its averages, but still excludes the Research 2000 tracker.
That's the final straw, as far as I'm concerned. They're cherrypicking.
Nate- Your 'serious' demeanor was a great foil for Colbert. And I loved the baseball analogy...but let me offer you a better one.
McCain is in second place and he is 8 games down in the loss column. There are 8 games to play (8 being the number of 'toss up' states). Knowing baseball like you do, that makes Obama's magic number "1". Sorry about the Cubs AND the White Sox. I was pulling for an 'EL' Series.
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^^ very nice
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